gmbacm
Footballguy
You are our fund manager, go for it. Just let us know when the $20k distributions are coming our way.
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Cavalier Crypto 101 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter IC FBGCav
- Start date
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
G
Guest
Guest
WTF? Really?IC FBGCav said:
ETA: Nevermind. I saw your next post.
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Psychopav
Help us, Joebi-Wan Brynobi, you're our only ho
Manage the fund how you want. That's what we signed up for and nobody has the right to ask for money back.
And if these shares get anywhere close to break even in the next year there's no way I'd want to get out at that point. Only ways out are the stars or the grave imo.
To the moon Alice!
And if these shares get anywhere close to break even in the next year there's no way I'd want to get out at that point. Only ways out are the stars or the grave imo.
To the moon Alice!
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Worm
slimy ninja
That's what my money is on, literally. And I will be using the current dip to add more.
You just never know though.
SwampDawg
Footballguy
Fan of Charles McCoy
Footballguy
Man, I’m tempted to buy more BAT at $.17. Dumb idea?
Worm
slimy ninja
I was able to grab some at $.15. Not dumb at all imo. Truly think it will hit $1-5 someday. Or more.
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
Short answer: no, not really.
Here's a really long, but good podcast where a "bitcoin maximalist" sorta addresses the bolded.
Here'st the transcript if you are super into reading.
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General Malaise
Footballguy
There were people refinancing homes and cashing out retirement accounts to buy this crap. Terrible.
My $50 is now worth $5, huh? Did we at the very least get a bit kitty named Bubbles out of this or what?
Like most things, the people who got in early did extremely well. The idiots that believed bitcoin’s market value was worth close to the US GDP and bought thinking the people calling for it to go from 20k to 200k or even 1 million got pummeled. I remember the articles about people investing everything they had into bitcoin and it was all around the end of the run.
As I’ve always contended, I don’t see why the coins would be worth way more than the mining costs. You need the miners to do the work (or maybe you don’t for some), but I don’t see people clamoring to invest in the Visa “coin” between me and Amazon.com. The coin is the transaction vehicle. Oh well, I don’t feel that bad. There’s still a lot of created wealth, just some suckers got demolished.
Capella
Footballguy
It’s insane to me. I remember reading some guy saying his wife didn’t want him to do it but he refinanced his house to get in around 19k. Is that guy still alive? Has his wife left? I need follow-ups.
NotSmart
Footballguy
I feel bad for anyone that lost big chunks of money... and I'd guess a lot of those "suckers" were ones that are toward the side of being able to afford it the least.
I think most of us here can sympathize to some extent... logic goes out the window in the middle of a FOMO bubble like we saw last year.
You are absolutely right, the people thinking that they have to get the "free money" out there and get burned are likely the ones who really can't afford it. People with the means aren't likely to risk their well being or have enough experience with other bubbles that they know it won't last.
ren hoek
Footballguy
Pretty bad. I’d imagine I’ve lost (or not realized) about as much money as anyone here. I could have bought a house. If people here lost a serious amount of money that is unfortunate. I’m glad I realized some gains when I did.
That being said, I think people are being premature by acting like this is the end. We had the most insane, godlike golden bullrun of all time and now we are taking some lumps. I’m still holding all my coins. I’m not good enough to time markets. I’m going to keep holding until it’s either not worth the electricity it’s stored on or crypto supplants entire industries. This is and always has been a longterm strategy.
Capella
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
Btc spent like 30 minutes at 20k. That was not a common entry point.
The fomo kicked in at 10k.
Capella
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
Here’s some guy who bought 3 shares at 19. I only read the first page but what a nightmare.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2889212.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2889212.0
G
Guest
Guest
That is painful to read. The 4th post down from the OP says to hold because selling those 3 BTC will make its market value lower.
The best is the last one to not sell for two to three years when it hits 6 digits. Seeing as he’s paying $13k a year in interest he’ll only have to wait until it crosses $32k per bitcoin to break even.
Capella
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
Frostillicus
Footballguy
From that thread:
ren hoek
Footballguy
Almost certainly. I think Lightning Network is a complete failure and won’t ever scale Bitcoin for real transaction volume, ergo Bitcoin can only go so far before people realize it sucks, but it’s at the front of the line for institutional investment.
culdeus
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
ren hoek
Footballguy
I think crypto is legitimate as a new asset class. I think that’s been vindicated by governments trying to ban, regulate and sanction it. I also think more Main Street money and compelling usecases are coming. It’s also a deflationary currency up against a fiat currency, so 20k is actually inevitable on a long enough timeline.
What would you rather hold for 10 years? 2.5 BTC or 10,000 USD? For a growing percentage of people, particularly young people, it’s bitcoin and it’s not even close.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
That's because they are using their student loans dollars to trade this crap. All the cool kids are doing it.
culdeus
Footballguy
It's not a new asset class. It's a commodity class investment. You can't put BTC in a bank and have them give you BTX+x% some years later. The better analogy is having 2.5BTC or 2.5 pork bellies. Both are pegged against USD. They are commodities.
Who cares what some schmuck with a gaming chair in their mom's basement wants to hold? Why should that drive value? Because there is a core group of people that just bought with the idea it will "moon" or some such and want to be "part of something"?
There are no compelling use cases that also make it a good investment. There are no reasons why this technology must have an insane valuation to be a success. In fact, quite the contrary. You don't want to be Amazon, taking BTC and worrying about carrying currency risk. It's stupid. So if there is no use case that makes sense over a Visa/MasterCard what drives it? Drugs, hookers, gambling, dark money. Fine. Just admit it that there is a market cap out there for dark money, and BTC is there to capture it. That's the use case, and that's the ceiling; dark money and conspiracy driven anti-govt hodlrs.
ren hoek
Footballguy
People want to build wealth. They want to build capital and save for a better life. Currently, with the value of USD wasting away over time and their actual wages falling, they can not do that. They understand that the central banking system is a problem, and is robbing billions of people of a better livelihood. If you don’t think any of that’s a problem, then we just disagree fundamentally on everything.
Some believe in the longterm prospects for its use as a currency and/or supply chain functions, some don’t. Will the tendency to hodl be too self defeating to the longterm goal of seeing valuations like a global currency should? Maybe. But to them the risk is well worth the reward.
culdeus
Footballguy
The fundamental thing you consistently miss when we exchange posts on this, is that the idea of a deflationary currency is a fantasy. Whether you find an inflationary capitalist society unfair to the broad world is not material in this matter. Yes, there will be some winners in capitalism that provide no real value to the system, that doesn't mean the system is inherently broken or somehow a decentralized system will solve this. You've been sold a bill of goods on this.
What happens when you have a deflationary currency is (shockingly) nobody wants to spend it. It hits all the warm fuzzy points of conspiracy nuts though, because a deflationary cycle is less prone to individual pressures or loss of control, or something like that.
So the enthusiasts here need to convince everyone that inflation = bad and BTC <> inflation, so just buy BTC and you'll have lambos because there are no mean men in the background making too many BTC or skimming from the till.
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
Good question. "perhaps" is really the only answer here. There's a non-zero chance it goes to ZERO. There's a much greater chance it returns to 20K in a year, 5 years, or 50 years.
You have the "Lindy Effect" which stands for the proposition that the life expectancy of a technology is proportional to its current age. The longer Bitcoin survives, the more times it's pronounced dead only to come back, the longer it will ultimately live. Bitcoin isn't dying anytime soon. In fact, its gaining more and more acceptance and adoption on a daily basis. For example, the State of Ohio now accepts tax payments in Bitcoin
You also have the economics behind Bitcoin. It has both deflationary and inflationary features baked right into it. The longer it lives, the more its going to appreciate, simply as a function of how scarce it is.
Probably a dozen other reasons it could see 20K again.
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JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
If you ever have the time, listen to this podcast interview with a "Bitcoin Maximalist." This guy is way out there on the spectrum when it comes to his opinions. But, I am genuinely interested in someone like you rebutting some of the foundational aspects of this guy's bitcoin religion. This guy address almost every point you and others raise as gut negative reactions to the idea.
And the bolded is a PRO, not a CON of bitcoin according to the maximalist POW. The podcast addresses this issues quite well imo.
As an aside, bitcoin as a usable currency is a huge strawman ripe for punching. It's not the end game (according to maximalists). Rather, the store of value is the end game. 2nd and 3rd layer solutions are available for small everyday transactions. Bitcoin isn't Visa. It's not a rail like Visa. It was never intended to be rail like Visa. Rather, it's gold.
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JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
btw, to reiterate, bitcoin has been pronounced dead a few hundred times (at least) since its inception. Meanwhile, it's still there gaining adoption.
Worm
slimy ninja
FWIW I read that whole transcript. That was the most interesting discussion to me. The idea of what bitcoin really is and why it will sustain value. His arguments made it a little easier to understand the possibility of bitcoin as a store of value, and how it might work long term. I think it's important to understand the argument that ultimately if 1 bitcoin will eventually be worth $20k, $100k, or $1M, it will be because it's a store of value not because we buy a cup of coffee with it. Don't know that will necessarily hold true, but at least I understand it more in relation to crypto in general.
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
One thing that jumped out to me, is when he identified the single biggest reason it could fail: the code breaks.
I immediately thought: the other reason it could fail is a better solution arrives and ascends.
if the Civilization games have taught me anything
, it’s that Currency is a technology. Technology advances. Anyone who believes Currency, as a technology, is never going to advance, is fooling themselves imo. If you believe the current monetary system is never going to change, welp
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JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
What’s interesting is the concept that bitcoin is the underlying layer that the Average Joe never has to really care about. People are being exposed to it now, because it’s in the adoption phase.
We aren’t all sitting around talking about gold reserves and the central bank. That’s all behind the scenes, several layers below our day-to-day monetary experience. We only care about and interact with the rails.
Bitcoin never was intended to be what some folks argue it never can be.
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
In the meantime, securities tokens are going to explode in the short term. They solve for dozens of problems.
Worm
slimy ninja
Right. And it makes sense. Which indicates that there is room for one of these other currency tokens to emerge as the 'cup of coffee' currency unit. The system that facilitates transactions. No idea how/why it would be any particular one, but something should win.
G
Guest
Guest
Can you explain this to someone like me who knows nothing and treats this like someone would treat gambling? I looked up the definition of store of value and found this:
"A store of value is the function of an asset that can be saved, retrieved and exchanged at a later time, and be predictably useful when retrieved. More generally, a store of value is anything that retains purchasing power into the future."
I get that it can be stored, retrieved and exchanged, but how safe and useful is it if you originally store $100 and next year it is worth $1? To me in this case it did not retain purchasing power. Is it only useful if something goes terribly wrong with the current system? Why wouldn't 1 BTC eventually be worth a fairly stable $ amount? Wouldn't that make it more useful?
I admit to not knowing how to think of this other than in dollar terms.
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
Folks are working on solutions to that layer. Imagine a version of Apple Pay that’s tied to every single asset you own (because every asset you own has been tokenized, fractionalized, and liquified).
Ultimate liquidity for all (with something like bitcoin incentivizing saving).
What we see today might not be what we see tomorrow, but we will see something different tomorrow.
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