Charcandrick WEST - Should we be talking about this kid ? (1 Viewer)

[Bronco Billy]

West owner here.

When he is healthy, I don't see how you start either of these guys with any confidence until we see how this actually shakes out in a game situation.

I understand that everyone wants to be right before it actually happens, but I don't get how anyone can figure this out right now with any certainty.

 

[shady inc]

i wouldn't mind west sitting out another week so I could start ware with confidence

 

[JuniorNB]

i wouldn't mind west sitting out another week so I could start ware with confidence

I think there is zero chance West is going to miss another week. Last thing he wants is to let the coaching staff see 15-20 more Ware carries.

 

[The Dude]

the only people who think ware will dominate touches when west comes back are ware owners

there is a reason west was next in line when charles went down and not ware

ware is the knile davis of the charles / davis duo and west is charles

This is hilarious. West had a few good weeks and he's now entrenched as the starter? Hah.

All it takes is a bad West series followed by a good Ware series and it's an even committee. Comparing this to the Charles/Davis era is laughable.

we will see

Neither one of you have any idea how this will play out.

no but im stating an opinion

While you are accurate - that you are stating an opinion - your opinion is based on casual information with no insight and is more of a guess.

No offense.

 

[(HULK)]

I own both in various leagues and have no clue how this will play out. None of us do imo.

 

[Shutout]

i wouldn't mind west sitting out another week so I could start ware with confidence

I think there is zero chance West is going to miss another week. Last thing he wants is to let the coaching staff see 15-20 more Ware carries.

unless he is injured and can't. I know we can't compare his injury to anyone else's because hamstring injuries seem to be very unique but over the years, I've seen a lot of guys like Arian Foster and Miles Austin, etc, seem to be "day to day" for 3-4 weeks at a time. I've seen a lot of guys come back and re-injure themselves.

Reid seems to be a cautious coach. I think West is going to have to be clearly looking very good for them to put him back in (which is good news for West owners because I expect you will have confidence in starting him and you will probably have him at the right time of the year).

 

[Andrew74]

West owner here.

When he is healthy, I don't see how you start either of these guys with any confidence until we see how this actually shakes out in a game situation.

I understand that everyone wants to be right before it actually happens, but I don't get how anyone can figure this out right now with any certainty.

 

[oddsbodkins]

Practiced in full today. Welcome back Chark!

 

[VaTerp]

Ben Grubbs was place on IR today. With that and the emergence of Ware I'm about 70% less excited to own him for the stretch run as I was 2 weeks ago.

 

[Ladsud]

Ben Grubbs was place on IR today. With that and the emergence of Ware I'm about 70% less excited to own him for the stretch run as I was 2 weeks ago.

Grubbs hasnt played in over a month. The line is getting it done.

 

[BearsFan4Life]

Practiced in full today. Welcome back Chark!

Happy to get him back, but not starting him this week until I see the workload

 

[Shutout]

Practiced in full today. Welcome back Chark!

Happy to get him back, but not starting him this week until I see the workload

It's a good week to get him back (for West AND Ware owners). Maybe get some sense of how it will play out prior to the FF playoffs.

 

[FF Ninja]

With that and the emergence of Ware I'm about 70% less excited to own him for the stretch run as I was 2 weeks ago.

Agreed. His days of 20 carries + 5 targets + 100% of goal line work are over. I'm expecting more in the 10-15 carry, 4 target range going forward (even without Ware the 20-25 carry pace was unlikely to continue), but that is based on nothing more than a guess. He should still be at least a low-end RB2 or a very nice flex.

 

[[icon]]

Cross posting this from the Ware thread, when asked why I saw a split share for West at best going forward:

Let's not pretend that West has been the entrenched stud starter... he just got the keys a few weeks back then pretty promptly got hurt. I'd suggest taking a look at the Forte situation (came back to a 50/50 split with Langford) for a good example of what I'm expecting.

One could even pretty easily argue that Ware has looked significantly better:

West: 3.8ypc - 1TD every 33 carries
Ware: 6.5ypc - 1TD every 9 carries

The only area West has excelled is in the passing game, clearly earning him 3rd down duty when back.

In these situations it's best to separate ownership and emotion and look at the numbers. Anyone expecting them to throw Ware on the bench, and make West the bellcow again are far more optimistic than I would be. That ship has sailed. The only way this backfield holds STABLE RB1 or even high end RB2 value going forward is while West stays down.

After that... break out the dice. I'd say Ware gets GL duty, West gets 3rd Down duty... and share from there on out. If they go with a hot hand approach, I expect Ware to pull away from West a bit.

With West looking likely to come back this week, I personally see both with RB2ish value in PPR for different reasons. I would have to be pretty hard up to start West in a non-PPR league this week.

 

[VaTerp]

With that and the emergence of Ware I'm about 70% less excited to own him for the stretch run as I was 2 weeks ago.

Agreed. His days of 20 carries + 5 targets + 100% of goal line work are over. I'm expecting more in the 10-15 carry, 4 target range going forward (even without Ware the 20-25 carry pace was unlikely to continue), but that is based on nothing more than a guess. He should still be at least a low-end RB2 or a very nice flex.

Yeah, and I didnt realize Grubbs had already been out the last 5 weeks so Ware is the real concern here.

My guess is like many that West still has value in the passing game and will get his share of touches but he's not going to dominate them like he did during that nice stretch where he was looking like a top 5 FF RB for the 2nd half of the season.

 

[JuniorNB]

Cross posting this from the Ware thread, when asked why I saw a split share for West at best going forward:

Let's not pretend that West has been the entrenched stud starter... he just got the keys a few weeks back then pretty promptly got hurt. I'd suggest taking a look at the Forte situation (came back to a 50/50 split with Langford) for a good example of what I'm expecting.

One could even pretty easily argue that Ware has looked significantly better:

West: 3.8ypc - 1TD every 33 carries

Ware: 6.5ypc - 1TD every 9 carries

The only area West has excelled is in the passing game, clearly earning him 3rd down duty when back.

In these situations it's best to separate ownership and emotion and look at the numbers. Anyone expecting them to throw Ware on the bench, and make West the bellcow again are far more optimistic than I would be. That ship has sailed. The only way this backfield holds STABLE RB1 or even high end RB2 value going forward is while West stays down.

After that... break out the dice. I'd say Ware gets GL duty, West gets 3rd Down duty... and share from there on out. If they go with a hot hand approach, I expect Ware to pull away from West a bit.

With West looking likely to come back this week, I personally see both with RB2ish value in PPR for different reasons. I would have to be pretty hard up to start West in a non-PPR league this week.

I agree. I think West holds more value in a PPR, while Ware does in a standard. Of course, that's based purely on how I think they'll be used. Only Andy Reid knows the true answer. We're all just guessing.

 

[Shrugs]

I will trust that Reid continues to use one RB as the bell cow.

 

[zamboni]

I will trust that Reid continues to use one RB as the bell cow.

Could be - but if you guess wrong on which one, it'll be a killer.

 

[Dizzy]

Similar fears here. This to me is "feeling" like KC's version of Anderson/Hillman. Either RB could win your game, or lose it... no way to start either with confidence.

FWIW - I have Ware and West.

 

[JuniorNB]

I will trust that Reid continues to use one RB as the bell cow.

Could be - but if you guess wrong on which one, it'll be a killer.

So true. As I mentioned upthread, Reid used Westbrook and Buckhalter for years in a committee. He's not opposed to it at all. It's just that he had Charles, so there was no need for one.

 

[Shrugs]

I will trust that Reid continues to use one RB as the bell cow.

Could be - but if you guess wrong on which one, it'll be a killer.

So true. As I mentioned upthread, Reid used Westbrook and Buckhalter for years in a committee. He's not opposed to it at all. It's just that he had Charles, so there was no need for one.

But when Charles was down the past couple years he used Knile as bell cow, then when Charles was down this year he used West as bell cow, and when West went down he used Ware as bell cow. Each of those times people were fussing on if there would be a split, and there wasn't. I assume West will go back to being the guy and would be comfortable putting him out there this week, but of course I'll wait until word at the last minute and then put out whichever is said to be starting.

 

[Da Gildz]

I will trust that Reid continues to use one RB as the bell cow.

Could be - but if you guess wrong on which one, it'll be a killer.

So true. As I mentioned upthread, Reid used Westbrook and Buckhalter for years in a committee. He's not opposed to it at all. It's just that he had Charles, so there was no need for one.

This isn't true at all. Westbrook was always the clear workhorse. Buckhalter was barely a factor when Westbrook was healthy. Their first year there together when both were relatively unknowns, the split was close. But after Westbrook established himself, Buckhalter was an afterthought. Heck he maxed out at 83 carries in 2006 during that great Westbrook run.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I will trust that Reid continues to use one RB as the bell cow.

Could be - but if you guess wrong on which one, it'll be a killer.

So true. As I mentioned upthread, Reid used Westbrook and Buckhalter for years in a committee. He's not opposed to it at all. It's just that he had Charles, so there was no need for one.

Thats false. Only happened in 2003, which was Westbrooks first season of note.

 

[zamboni]

Reid will play who he feels give the team a better chance to win. History of RBBC or lack thereof probably is irrelevant.

 

[Da Gildz]

I don't own either. My guess is he rolls with the hot hand. Neither guy is established enough to assume anything.

If West starts off 4 carries for 6 yds , Ware comes in and breaks off a couple nice runs, then what? Haha

I'd treat both guys like their in a 50/50 timeshare. PPR I'd go West of course. Standard, I'm going Ware.

And that is my .02.

 

[JuniorNB]

I don't own either. My guess is he rolls with the hot hand. Neither guy is established enough to assume anything.

If West starts off 4 carries for 6 yds , Ware comes in and breaks off a couple nice runs, then what? Haha

I'd treat both guys like their in a 50/50 timeshare. PPR I'd go West of course. Standard, I'm going Ware.

And that is my .02.

Exactly this. If you have other options, the best move is to sit back and see what happens before using either guy. Trying to guess what Reid is thinking and how the two play early-on, is bound to lead to many people absorbing 2.3 points at their running back slot. If you're forced to use one of them, I'd lean West in PPR and Ware in standard.

 

[lsufan]

I have Ware and West on my team. Hope they let West rest that hammy one more week lol. Doesn't look like it will happen though. Probably both be on my bench this week :(

 

[djjosee]

I have Ware and West on my team. Hope they let West rest that hammy one more week lol. Doesn't look like it will happen though. Probably both be on my bench this week :(

And then what? Put them both in there and hopefully one will rise to the top in time for the playoffs! Until then, its anyone's guess ...

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I will trust that Reid continues to use one RB as the bell cow.

Could be - but if you guess wrong on which one, it'll be a killer.

If he only uses one, it will be West imo. He fits the system better and was already Reid's first choice. I own both (in ppr league) and will take my chances with West if he's healthy.

 

[T.Rex]

I will trust that Reid continues to use one RB as the bell cow.

Could be - but if you guess wrong on which one, it'll be a killer.

If he only uses one, it will be West imo. He fits the system better and was already Reid's first choice. I own both (in ppr league) and will take my chances with West if he's healthy.

West was 1st choice but Ware ypc are significantly better. I see Ware as 1st two downs West third downs.

 

[LawFitz]

Tempted to start them both this week over Lamar Miller.

 

[mnmplayer]

I will trust that Reid continues to use one RB as the bell cow.

Could be - but if you guess wrong on which one, it'll be a killer.

If he only uses one, it will be West imo. He fits the system better and was already Reid's first choice. I own both (in ppr league) and will take my chances with West if he's healthy.

This is the right answer. Either way Ware's value plummets going forward if West is playing. West *could* see his value drop as well, but Reid has never done two things by choice that I can find

1. Starter lose his role from injury.

2. RBBC.

Its possible West could give up some touches going forward, but its also possible they go back to West full time as that was working well. One thing that is likely not going to happen is Ware gets all the touches if West is healthy enough to play.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I will trust that Reid continues to use one RB as the bell cow.

Could be - but if you guess wrong on which one, it'll be a killer.

If he only uses one, it will be West imo. He fits the system better and was already Reid's first choice. I own both (in ppr league) and will take my chances with West if he's healthy.

West was 1st choice but Ware ypc are significantly better. I see Ware as 1st two downs West third downs.

the ypc discussion was already broached and discussed ad nauseum in the Ware thread. It's a somewhat deceptive stat to begin with but loses even more meaning when we are talking about such a small amount of carries for each back.

 

[Da Gildz]

Going to be hilarious when Knile Davis goes for 100+ and 2 scores.

 

[moondog]

I will trust that Reid continues to use one RB as the bell cow.

Could be - but if you guess wrong on which one, it'll be a killer.

If he only uses one, it will be West imo. He fits the system better and was already Reid's first choice. I own both (in ppr league) and will take my chances with West if he's healthy.

West was 1st choice but Ware ypc are significantly better. I see Ware as 1st two downs West third downs.

True but Ware did not have to run against Denver. On the pass catching side Ware has 4 catches for 6 yards - 1.5 yds per catch. Since the five game winning streak began West has 11 catches for 184 yards - 16.7 per catch ( in four games ).

 

[cowboys88]

Going to be hilarious when Knile Davis goes for 100+ and 2 scores.

Haha! I hate you

 

[JuniorNB]

I will trust that Reid continues to use one RB as the bell cow.

Could be - but if you guess wrong on which one, it'll be a killer.

If he only uses one, it will be West imo. He fits the system better and was already Reid's first choice. I own both (in ppr league) and will take my chances with West if he's healthy.

West was 1st choice but Ware ypc are significantly better. I see Ware as 1st two downs West third downs.

True but Ware did not have to run against Denver. On the pass catching side Ware has 4 catches for 6 yards - 1.5 yds per catch. Since the five game winning streak began West has 11 catches for 184 yards - 16.7 per catch ( in four games ).

You hit the nail on the head. Which is why they will either alternate series, or they'll have the better runner (Ware) do the bulk of the ball-carrying and have West do most of the third downs/pass receiving.

 

[[icon]]

Yeah I'm not sure what's up with the logic behind assuming bellcow status goes back to a guy who averaged 2.7ypc less, and had a TD/Touch rate 75% worse just because he had taken over the job (due to starter's injury) for a couple weeks.

I think that's faulty and driven by wishful thinking rather than reality or numbers.

 

[[icon]]

I will trust that Reid continues to use one RB as the bell cow.

Could be - but if you guess wrong on which one, it'll be a killer.

If he only uses one, it will be West imo. He fits the system better and was already Reid's first choice. I own both (in ppr league) and will take my chances with West if he's healthy.

This is the right answer. Either way Ware's value plummets going forward if West is playing. West *could* see his value drop as well, but Reid has never done two things by choice that I can find

1. Starter lose his role from injury.

2. RBBC.

Its possible West could give up some touches going forward, but its also possible they go back to West full time as that was working well. One thing that is likely not going to happen is Ware gets all the touches if West is healthy enough to play.

Curious for examples where a non-entrenched starter-by-injury held the job for a couple weeks, got injured himself, had his production surpassed and then was given his job back after he returned?

 

[JuniorNB]

Yeah I'm not sure what's up with the logic behind assuming bellcow status goes back to a guy who averaged 2.7ypc less, and had a TD/Touch rate 75% worse just because he had taken over the job (due to starter's injury) for a couple weeks.

I think that's faulty and driven by wishful thinking rather than reality or numbers.

The primary backup role must be decided after training camp and player performance can not alter that decision going further. NFL Rulebook, chapter5, section 3.

 

[[icon]]

Its possible West could give up some touches going forward, but its also possible they go back to West full time as that was working well. One thing that is likely not going to happen is Ware gets all the touches if West is healthy enough to play.

Nobody is saying Ware gets all the touches. I think anyone thinking that this is any better than a 70/30 split at best going forward (absent one guy seriously outplaying the other) is kidding themselves.

 

[Shutout]

I believe it is important to look at real world in a case like this and check the FF hopes & dreams into an "unbiased" box.

While it is a strong argument to go back to West, particularly due to his pass catching ability, it would be foolish to overlook what Ware has brought to the table, the weather, the long term goals of the team, etc, etc.

If EITHER of these guys gets the lionshare (which I doubt), I think it makes much more sense to go with Ware. He is built for the weather and he has been super productive on a per-touch basis, compared to West. He is a perfect motivational story for a team to get behind (hanging in there from the PS and being ready when called upon). Coaches LOVE that type of motivation/reward on teams.

It would be much easier to get Ware's production and alter the pass catching than it would be to get less in the running production while banking on the pass-catching (which, if your team is doing well, those situations should be less, anyway). The schedule is favorable. It appears on the surface they would need the pass-catching less.

On top of all that, you'd think the real life team is thinking that Hamstrings can be tricky and they want to make sure they have a healthy West at the end of the year and into the playoffs. That is more important to the Chiefs than week 13, 14, 15 is to us.

With all that being said, if forced to pick one, I take Ware and think there are slightly better chances/scenarios his number comes up bigger in weeks 14,15,16, but my gut says we are going to see interchanging and situational play which could go any way the wind blows....most likely cannibalizing the ceiling for both.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

He is built for the weather and he has been super productive on a per-touch basis, compared to West. He is a perfect motivational story for a team to get behind (hanging in there from the PS and being ready when called upon). Coaches LOVE that type of motivation/reward on teams.

Do you have any statistics that show how the weather affects smaller backs versus larger backs? Did the Chiefs switch from Charles to Davis in cold weather? and yes I know Charles is >>>>>>>> Davis and West and Ware are far more comparable. However the point remains, I don't think either back is better suited for cold weather.

and that second sentence sounds like total a bunch of malarkey, not "the real world" - wouldn't the same apply to West?

 

[Long Ball Larry]

I will trust that Reid continues to use one RB as the bell cow.

Could be - but if you guess wrong on which one, it'll be a killer.

So true. As I mentioned upthread, Reid used Westbrook and Buckhalter for years in a committee. He's not opposed to it at all. It's just that he had Charles, so there was no need for one.

This isn't true at all. Westbrook was always the clear workhorse. Buckhalter was barely a factor when Westbrook was healthy. Their first year there together when both were relatively unknowns, the split was close. But after Westbrook established himself, Buckhalter was an afterthought. Heck he maxed out at 83 carries in 2006 during that great Westbrook run.

Yeah, I posted this back in October:

Ok, serious question. I keep seeing people say RBBC, neither guy will be useful, hot hand, blah blah blah. Has Reid ever used a RBBC or "hot hand" style with his RBs? I was under the impression that he does not. Granted with guys like JC, Shady and Westbrook, it's understandable. What has he done in the past with JC injury? All Davis? Someone mentioned Battle... Was there a RBBC? Don't remember McCoy's injury history in philly. Westbrook was constant last minute drill, but I seem to remember it being just one backup behind him.

My point/question is this should end up being West or Davis. One of these guys will have low RB2 value the other will be droppable or handcuff. Or do I have it wrong?

Went all in on West. Play the JC owner this week and another team already owned Davis. At 5-0 it seemed like a decent gamble. (FA and 0 bid system)

When he has the guy he likes, he will make him the workhorse, but if he doesn't, then he is not going to force a lead back. See below.

1999 - Staley was the lead back

2000 - Run Game was a total hodgepodge of nonsense and McNabb was the leading rusher.

2001 - Staley/Buckhalter had almost an even split

2002 - Staley was the clear lead back

2003 - Staley/Buckhalter/Westbrook close to even split

2004 - Westbrook/Levens about a 65-35 split

2005 - Westbrook pretty clearly the lead back

2006 - Westbrook lead back

2007 - Westbrook lead back

2008 - Westbrook lead back

2009 - McCoy lead back

2010 - McCoy lead back

2011 - McCoy lead back

2012 - McCoy lead back

 

[Dr. Octopus]

On top of all that, you'd think the real life team is thinking that Hamstrings can be tricky and they want to make sure they have a healthy West at the end of the year and into the playoffs. That is more important to the Chiefs than week 13, 14, 15 is to us.

The Chiefs are far from a lock for the playoffs, so I also doubt Weeks 13, 14, and 15 aren't important to them. They are tied for the last spot with 3-4 other teams.

 

[Judge Smails]

But Starks looks better than Lacy, right?

 

[Ladsud]

But Starks looks better than Lacy, right?

Theres no comparison. West has 4 starts, Ware has 1 start in there careers. We arent talking about proven vets here.

 

[Milkman]

If the KC wants to make the playoffs they are going to want to use the best back for each scenario.

1st down - Ware

2nd down - Ware

3rd down - West

GL - Ware

Hurry up - West

If they don't do that ^^^^^ they aren't very good at identifying their talent.

Who's the better pass protector?

 

[Gandalf]

Hate to say it but this whole situation is an avoid unless you have to start one West/Ware. We need greater clarity on how they will split the workload now that West seems to be practicing fully again.

 

[bostonfred]

I'd be interested in seeing how old the people are who think ware is going to keep the job vs the ones who think west will get it back. It seems like one side is young idealists arguing for the choice that's obvious to them and the other is people who have watched decades of coaches doing the same thing again and again.