Chasing guys that are compared to current players in drafts (1 Viewer)

[Shutout]

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James the Scot said this and it got me to thinking:

"Oh, the secret to picking a stud NFL running back is to find one that looks like Ray Rice? Except that if you followed the secret to drafting a stud NFL running back the year Rice got drafted, you wouldn't have drafted Ray Rice."

That's really a lot to think about. We see it every year: This guys is a Wes Welker clone, this guy approaches the game like Tom Brady, etc, etc.

And then we get on the boards and we echo that, ad naseum.

But when you think about that, the guys we are trying to find the "next" one like are often guys that we (nor the NFL) was looking for when THEY arrived.

So...what does that say about how much stock to put into measureables and similarities when the guys that are so successful were discounted for those same attributes when they came to the league?

 

[DawnBTVS]

I put very little in player comparisons in part because they are often either "high end" (e.g. comparing guys to Tom Brady/Wes Welker as rookies) or extremely general (e.g. every small, quicker than fast WR in a slot = Welker).

The odds of hitting on a Hall of Fame QB (or even an incredibly productive FF talent ala LaDanian Tomlinson in his prime) are pretty rare as it is. Add in rough comparisons and you're just asking for trouble.

Robert Griffin III is already getting comparisons to Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton and in some cases even Michael Vick. Rodgers was a rare case that took 4 years to really develop into the stud he's become. How often will Cam Newton be running for 10+ TD in a given season like his 14 as a rookie? Michael Vick has proven to be a good runner but a very mediocre passing QB.

Will RGIII equal any of those players? Maybe. I'd much prefer he be Rodgers than Vick, obviously. Cam himself was pretty mediocre passing wise outside of December (4 TD-4 INT in September, 7-5 in October, and 1-5 in November). In December he threw 8 TD to 2 INT which made his season ending passing numbers look much better than they could've been.