They won't be winning much this year but some things to look for...
1. Are they trading Samardzija? He is a very talented but inconsistent starter who is approaching 30 years old. The have currently dropped all contract extension talks but own him for two more arbitration years. Because of his age and the likelihood that the Cubs contending window opens in 2016 at the earliest, they are open to trading him. However, they are asking for a ton so far and probably are hoping that some contender will cave in just before the trade deadline.
2. Can Rizzo and Castro prove they are the young cornerstones everyone thought they were in April of 2013? Both had down years although Rizzo's is more about bad luck. And they were both given long term contracts into their prime. If this team is contending sooner rather than later, it is because these two players are challenging for all star games.
3. Will any of the post-hype prospects, high risk talents, or others become solid pieces for 2014 and beyond? Welington Castillo had a solid if unspectacular year that was absent of the power he had shown in the minors. If he can continue to improve defensively (pitch framing in particular) and re-discover his power stroke, he can be a solid catcher for the next 5 years. Junior Lake is the Soriano starter kit but swings at a ton more than low and away sliders. Either he begins recognizing pitches and becomes a 25hr/20sb threat or he (more likely) struggles to be anything more than a bench bat. Mike Olt was a prized defense (shut up Eephus) and power 3B who lost a year due to a beaning and vision problems. The Cubs acquired him at his lowest value and are hoping that he becomes the 25 HR threat he was predicted to be. All of the above will be getting a ton of at bats this year.
4. How good are Travis Wood/Edwin Jackson? Last year Wood was a very good pitcher but some see him as a back of the rotation talent who was lucky on balls in play. On the other hand, Jackson had the worst year of his career and some see him as being very unlucky. The Cubs have a collection of back of the rotation prospects who could challenge for roles this year or next and need at least one of Wood/Jackson to be at least a mid rotation starter. If not, that is one more starting pitcher they will have to buy to contend any time soon.
5. Prospects, Prospects, Prospects...
At some point this summer, Javier Baez will be playing in Wrigley in the infield (likely 2B) and violently striking out and launching balls into buildings across Waveland. He is a possible superstar whose ceiling depends on developing a calmness at the plate and in the field. He may have the fastest bat in baseball right now. Another summer addition will be Arodys Vizcaino who has the stuff of a top of the rotation starter but the injury history of a future closer. The Cubs will give him the chance to start but he will begin in the bullpen this year to protect his arm (he missed the last two seasons).
Joining him in Wrigley this fall or next spring will be Kris Bryant and Arismendy Alcantara. Bryant is power hitter with a tremendous approach at the plate. It is expected that he will move off of 3B into RF but the Cubs are letting him prove himself at 3B. At the plate, the only question is his strikeout rate limiting his ceiling. Alcantara is described as a Jimmy Rollins type at 2B. He will walk, hit for surprising power, and steal bases. He should be ready for Wrigley at some point this year but may not have a position if Olt, Castro, and Baez are all performing. There is talk of him becoming a utility player who can start all over the infield and outfield. If Olt falters, I can see Baez at 3B and Alcantara at 2B in September. The Cubs hope to have the problem of fitting all their young hitters into the lineup. They also have a impressive defensive 3B Christian Villanueva in AAA who is probably a league average (or slightly above) hitter in his prime.
Visiting Wrigley in 2015 or 2016 will be Albert Almora (described as a Jeter type player in CF), Jorge Soler (prototypical RF with solid power and approach), and C.J. Edwards (elite stuff in a tiny body - durability concerns).
The Cubs have even more solid hitting prospects that could see Wrigley in 2016 or beyond. They also have a few former prospects like Brett Jackson, Matt Szczur (pronounced "Ceaser"), and Josh Vitters who have not impressed but could see some time on the Cubs this year. The have also collected a ton of young arms in the last couple years in the hope that a couple stay healthy and develop into at least mid rotation starters. Edwards is at the top of that list but Pierce Johnson is the other name that could see Wrigley in 2015 if everything breaks right. Developing starting pitching is the Cubs #1 need into the future.
As for this year, if everything falls in the Cubs favor they might win 81 games. Expect 70-something wins and hope that the spine of a contending team is visible by September.
And there are distractors that think the owners will not spend the money when the Cubs are ready to contend. They think this because the Cubs have only handed out one big contract to a free agent during the new regime. I am not concerned with that. I don't think Theo Epstein and friends come to Chicago without a game plan that includes spending big if needed in the near future.
