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Dynasty Ranks: Running Backs
Running backs
I never worshiped at the altar of the "running backs are gold" philosophy, especially in Dynasty leagues where elite quarterbacks and wide receivers can carry a team for a decade. Running backs, on the other hand, come and go with great frequency. The key to team building in Dynasty leagues is to ensure that you have one sure-fire bell cow back. Then you can creatively fill in around that bulwark with mid-round picks, timely trades, and the waiver wire.
In researching these rankings, two major themes emerged at running back:
1. If the 2009 season taught us anything about Dynasty backs, it was the cliff-diving of highly valued aging backs such as LaDainian Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, and Brian Westbrook. While quarterbacks and receivers gradually decline, allowing owners to plan for a replacement, a top-flight running back's value simply crumbles under a heavy workload or the effects of age. Meanwhile, young backs such as Ray Rice, Rashard Mendenhall, Jamaal Charles, and Felix Jones emerged from the shadows, flying past the downward trending veterans.
Of necessity, aging backs must be devalued while talented young backs must be treasured before their breakout seasons. More than any other position, staying ahead of the curve is mandatory with running backs.
2. The 2008 draft class is the running backs' answer to the much acclaimed 1983 quarterback class of Dan Marino, John Elway, Jim Kelly, et al. The 2008 class boasts two of the top four in these rankings and five of the top 10.
Chris Johnson broke the 2,000-yard barrier while shattering Marshall Faulk's yards from scrimmage record. Ray Rice led all backs in receiving and finished second in yards from scrimmage. Jonathan Stewart out-rushed starter DeAngelo Williams while Jamaal Charles finished second to Johnson in fantasy points over the second half of the season. Rashard Mendenhall, Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, and Kevin Smith all have 1,000-yard seasons under their belt. Felix Jones, flashing as much homerun ability as any back in the class, finally broke through with 178 yards in the Cowboys' playoff rout of the Eagles last week. Committee back Tim Hightower even finished second to Rice in receptions. Ironically, it's the first back drafted, Darren McFadden, who has found NFL success elusive. On to the rankings:
Tier One
1. Chris Johnson, Titans | Age: 25.0 – We've never seen a running back with his combination of sick speed, moves, and quick-cutting ability. The answer to the question of whether Vince Young would do more harm than good was answered definitively in the final 10 games.
Despite the yards from scrimmage record and his 2009 rushing title at a whopping 582 more yards than his closest competitor, Johnson is experiencing unwarranted long-term skepticism for his body size. To set the record straight, bigger backs have shorter careers than backs of Johnson's stature. There are arguments to be made for Adrian Peterson and Maurice Jones-Drew at No. 1, but body size isn't one of them.
2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings | Age: 25.6 – You can't be faulted if you stick to your guns on ADP as the No. 1 back. While he saw a drop-off in attempts, yards, and YPC, he more than made up for it with a two-fold increase in receptions and a league-high 18 TDs. Could he put it all together in 2010?
With all of the attention on his second-half slump and declining yards per carry, it went unnoticed that Peterson shattered his best fantasy season this year. His receptions have risen steadily from 19 to 21 to 42 – just four fewer than Chris Johnson (and eight fewer than Frank Gore and Steven Jackson).
3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars | Age: 25.6 – In his four-year career, MJD has averaged 14 TDs, 50 receptions, and 4.7 YPC mostly in part-time work. The focal point of the Jags offense, Jones-Drew's value is as safe as it gets.
4. Ray Rice, Ravens | Age: 23.8 – Profootballfocus.com's No. 1 back in 2009. Drawing comparisons to a faster Emmitt Smith, Rice was the best receiving back in the league, an explosive runner, and a very good blocker. The hand-wringing over the lack of goal-line carries is reminiscent of Chris Johnson last season. Rice's 45 touchdowns in his last two seasons at Rutgers suggest he can handle the role just fine.
One pre-2008 scouting report said Rice "doesn't have change-of-pace speed and doesn't provide much in the passing game." It's another reason why mid-to-late first-round rookie picks are overrated. Our knowledge of these players coming in to the NFL is just too limited.
Tier Two
5. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers | Age: 23. 6 – Reminiscent of Jones-Drew when Fred Taylor was still tops on the depth chart, Stewart is a physical freak whose talent alone would put him comfortably in the top tier.
Has he made DeAngelo Williams expendable on the cap-strapped Panthers? It's a sentiment gaining steam of late, though skepticism is advised. The Panthers aren't in the business of parting with their impact players, especially one with a salary as low as Williams' $725K. Though D-Willy isn't likely to depart this season, his contract is up in 2011.
6. Frank Gore, 49ers | Age: 27.4 – The concerns about his injury history and workload in a potential spread offense are severely overblown. The do-everything back finished fifth in fantasy points despite missing almost three full games, and he actually bettered Ray Rice in points per week.
7. Steven Jackson, Rams | Age: 27.2 – S-Jax is the test case for special talent as the trump card in Dynasty leagues. With a floor is so high that he's producing quality numbers in a sunk offense, he's the perfect example of why studs have to be ranked highly regardless of situation. Remember that the next time somebody tells you that Calvin Johnson isn't an elite Dynasty receiver.
8. DeAngelo Williams, Panthers | Age: 27.5 – It's not that Williams isn't one of the best backs in the league; he is. The problem is he's going to spend another year of his prime splitting carries.
9. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs | Age: 23.9 – My reaction to Charles was similar to Todd Haley's: "We started by saying that this was a 15-carry per game guy. He's forced us to think differently about him." I'm trying to pick apart his game and his situation to find a major concern, but I've come up empty. Charles is a 23-year-old feature back with the second-most fantasy points over the second-half of the season on top of 5.9(!) YPC and natural pass-catching skills. What's not to like?
10. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers | Age: 23.3 – Mendenhall's downhill, physical style is a natural fit for the Steelers offense, and he surprisingly pushed Mewelde Moore out of the third-down role down the stretch. He's an every-down back heading into a 2010 season in which the Steelers want to re-establish the running game.
Tier Three
11. Beanie Wells, Cardinals | Age: 22.1 - Ran like a man possessed over the second half of the season, punishing tacklers and refusing to go down on first contact. I've heard him described as 95 percent of Adrian Peterson, which isn't as ridiculous as it sounds at first blush.
12. Knowshon Moreno, Broncos | Age: 23.2 – I never considered Moreno an explosive back, so the lack of big plays isn't particularly bothersome to me. He's a chain-mover with impressive success rates and few negative plays. What killed him down the stretch was that defenses didn't respect the passing game and the offensive line fell apart.
With Josh McDaniels weeding out the Shanahan guys, his offense will start to go through Moreno instead of Brandon Marshall. Knowshon won't always be paired with a back like Correll Buckhalter, so his production will be more consistent and his receptions will skyrocket. I'm expecting rock-solid borderline RB1 production for the next five years.
13. Michael Turner, Falcons | Age: 28.7 – Far too reliant on touchdowns. Similar to Clinton Portis last season, backs in their age-28 seasons usually receive a downgrade because most of their value is tied up in the past as opposed to the future. Turner can still put forth a dominant season in 2010, but is that worth giving up five years of production from a younger back?
14. Felix Jones, Cowboys | Age: 23.4 – Can the Cowboys really keep him on the bench after he showed what he could do with 15+ touches against the Eagles last week? Jones still has questions to answer about workload and fragility, but his playmaking ability makes him a fantasy asset with 12-15 touches per week.
15. Matt Forte, Bears | Age: 24.9 – Poor Forte received no help from his offensive line, but neither did Jamaal Charles. While Forte is solid across the board, there's just nothing special about his talent. No longer the offensive centerpiece, it's hard to consider him a nucleus player in Dynasty circles with a 3.6 YPC and major red-zone issues.
16. Ryan Grant, Packers | Age: 27.9 – We know what Grant is now: a very good open-field runner who still struggles at times to read his blocks and should never be used in the passing game. Grant finished No. 8 in fantasy points on the season, emphatically slamming the door on speculation that his starting job is in jeopardy. The Packers' high-scoring offense gives him a short-term value boost.
17. Cedric Benson, Bengals | Age: 27.9 - Bears fans can't believe it. The Cincinnati Benson bears little resemblance to the Chicago Benson, and he's running with authority and explosiveness behind a heavy workload. The Bengals' new offensive centerpiece is a free agent after next season.
18. Shonn Greene, Jets | Age: 25.1 - Showed great short-area quickness and finished his runs with authority, pushing Thomas Jones to the side against the Bengals last week. Jones is expected to return to the Jets in 2010, so Greene may have to wait another year for weekly fantasy value.
Tier Four
19. Pierre Thomas, Saints | Age: 25.9 – Finished first in Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings and fifth in Profootballfocus.com's ratings after finishing in the Top-5 in DVOA last season. His effectiveness is undeniable. We'd all like to see Pierre used more often, but the root of the issue is that Sean Payton is convinced Thomas can't handle a full workload without getting nicked up.
20. Donald Brown, Colts | Age: 23.5 – His injury-plagued rookie season isn't going to have the Colts in a hurry to part ways with Joseph Addai. Brown will have to prove he can hold up as an NFL back before his workload increases.
21. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins | Age: 28.9 – He remains one of the best all-around talents at the position, but he just can't stay healthy for a full season. Brown will be close to 29 years old and coming off another major injury going into next season. And Ricky Williams isn't going anywhere.
22. Joseph Addai, Colts | Age: 27.4 – Addai has always been a player who derived too much value out of situation and not enough out of talent. That remains the case, and he stands to lose a lot of value throughout the 2010 season if Donald Brown can stay healthy.
23. LeSean McCoy, Eagles | Age: 22.2 - His rookie season was a mixed bag. When Brian Westbrook first went down, McCoy was given the opportunity to take the job and run with it. Instead, he forced the coaches to work fullback Leonard Weaver into the mix. While he's already an asset in PPR leagues, I can't shake the feeling that his shake-and-bake style will make him a long-term committee back as opposed to a Westbrook clone.
24. Marion Barber, Cowboys | Age: 27.3 – Injuries adversely affected his production for the second straight year, enough so that Felix Jones is threatening to take over as the feature back. Since signing his big-money deal, MBIII's per-carry average has dropped by half a yard, he's fumbling twice as often, and his touchdown percentage has been cut in half. Remember: it's never a good sign for long-term value when your backups can step in without missing a beat.
Tier Five
25. Darren McFadden, Raiders | Age: 23.1 - An injury-prone timeshare back in an offense held hostage by the quarterback, McFadden has left far too much yardage on the field the past two seasons. Keeping the faith is getting increasingly difficult, but now is the ideal time to buy low if you were ever a true believer.
26. Marshawn Lynch, Bills | Age: 24.5 - Dynasty owners didn't draft him to be a time-share back. The problem is that Lynch isn't all that talented, and he's been outproduced by his backup for two straight seasons. I wouldn't want to count on the new coaching staff liking him better than F-Jax, especially since Jackson certainly appears to be the better player.
27. Jerome Harrison, Browns | Age: 27.7 – He's a virtual lock to enter 2010 as the Browns' starter, but I'm not one who sees a long-term feature back here. Harrison's impressive job-saving finish for Eric Mangini came against the Chiefs, Raiders, and Jaguars. Selling high is advised.
28. Reggie Bush, Saints | Age: 25.6 - No longer even a good flex option, Bush is nothing more than a role player in the Saints offense. He could end up with more playing time outside of New Orleans, but how much value can he have without the ability or the willingness to run forward?
29. Ahmad Bradshaw, Giants | Age: 24.6 – Built like a change of pace back, but runs like he's an iron head. As we saw in 2009, however, that style leads to injuries. On a positive note, Bradshaw was far more effective than backfield partner Brandon Jacobs.
30. Fred Jackson, Bills | Age: 29.7 – The Bills offense simply runs better with Jackson as the main man. F-Jax is a superior receiver, arguably a more explosive runner, and does a fine job in short-yardage. If his new head coach decides to put production ahead of pedigree, F-Jax will remain the feature back.
31. Darren Sproles, Chargers | Age: 27.3 – Give him this: when he plays, he produces fantasy points. The Chargers' 2010 backfield is up in the air, but it's easy to picture Sproles in a similar role to the one he's had the past two seasons, perhaps with a slight increase in carries.
32. Brandon Jacobs, Giants | Age: 28.2 – Aging backs have to produce now, and Jacobs isn't getting it done. There's no question that he was a slower, more plodding back in 2009, but his disappointing season also served as a useful reminder that bigger backs are much more reliant on their blocking. Jacobs' value is wrapped up in touchdowns, which is troublesome with Bradshaw out-producing him in the red zone. If you're not scared off by aging, injury-prone running backs who don't catch passes, buy low. Everyone else: run away fast.
Tier Six
33. Tashard Choice, Cowboys | Age: 25.10 – More effective than an injury-plagued Marion Barber for the second straight season.
34. Willis McGahee, Ravens | Age: 28.11 – Expected to be a cap casualty in Baltimore, and his Week 17 performance against the Raiders may have been enough to earn him the greater share of a committee job in 2010. He'll be bringing fresh legs wherever he lands.
35. Steve Slaton, Texans | Age: 24.8 - He is what we thought he was last offseason: a passing-down, change-of-pace back masquerading as a lead back. My concern with Slaton was always that he was going to be a back in the vain of Willie Parker and Joseph Addai, where the coaches continue to take pieces of responsibility away from him until he's nothing more than complementary part. Such is the case in Houston, where the Texans are expected to add an early-down back early in this year's draft.
36. Laurence Maroney, Patriots | Age: 25.7 - Maroney had his final chance to be "the man" in New England, I think, and he fumbled it away. He's a committee back with a fumbling problem, a checkered injury history, and a reputation for running east/west and dancing at the line. Congrats if you sold high a month ago.
37. Thomas Jones, Jets | Age: 32.1 - The passing of the torch? Jones has been phenomenal the past two seasons, far surpassing expectations while laughing in the face of the age-30 running back decline. But Shonn Greene is coming like a freight train.
38. Arian Foster, Texans | Age: 24.1 – My pet sleeper from last summer played well down the stretch when given a shot at the starting job. While nobody would mistake him for a special talent, Foster averaged nearly a full yard more per carry than Ryan Moats and a yard and a half more than Steve Slaton. Throw in nice hands and after-the-catch ability, and he has a puncher's chance to open 2010 as the starter in Gary Kubiak's one-cut-and-go system.
39. Michael Bush, Raiders | Age: 26.3 – Looking on the bright side, the Raiders coaches have no idea how to evaluate running back talent. Despite being shoe-horned into a fullback role last season and neglected this season, Bush still has the three best rushing performances of the past year and a half. Bush owners should be rooting hard for a coaching change in the next week or two.
40. Justin Forsett, Seahawks | Age: 24.11 – A very good NFL role player. Even on the off chance that he gets a shot at the lead-back job, he's not likely to hold onto it for multiple seasons.
41. Chester Taylor, Vikings | Age: 31.0 – Taylor is due to hit unrestricted free agency at age 31. While he's obviously one of the top backups in the game, he's a longshot to land his own starting gig in 2010.
42. Leon Washington, Jets | Age: 28.1 – Jerious Norwood North? Actually, that comparison sells the old Leon Washington short. Unfortunately, we don't know how much speed and cutting ability he left on the operating table after he suffered a double open fracture to his right leg.
Tier Seven
43. Brian Westbrook, Eagles | Age: 31.0 - Will the Eagles bring him back at a reduced salary considering his obvious fragility? I wouldn't count on it. Westbrook can still play effectively, but the Eagles' reluctance to use him in the playoff loss speaks volumes.
44. LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers | Age: 31.3 - Report to the principal's office if you drafted him in the first round of redraft leagues. As Rotoworld predicted last summer, the trademark explosiveness is gone. You can forget about the retirement talk, but LT is likely playing out his last San Diego hurrah over the next few weeks. Where he lands in 2010 in anyone's guess.
45. Clinton Portis, Redskins | Age: 29.0 - Running on empty. Portis can't stay on the field, and he's ineffective when he does play. May not be long for D.C. with a new regime in town and his work ethic being called into question.
46. Ricky Williams, Dolphins | Age: 33.3 - The most interesting character in sports over the past decade. "Unique" doesn't mean rare or uncommon, it means alone in the universe. As the unique football player, universals don't apply to Ricky. Who knows what he has in store for his next act in 2010?
47. Bernard Scott, Bengals | Age: 26.7 – Check out his age. Scott is an intriguing talent, but he's already 26 years old and sitting behind a better back in Cedric Benson.
48. LenDale White, Titans | Age: 25.9 - The Titans' "keep the lead" back was left on the bench for the final three months of the season. A restricted free agent, White's best hope for value is to be reunited with Pete Carroll in Seattle.
49. Carnell Williams, Buccaneers | Age: 28.5 – Caddy may have been more deserving of the Comeback Player of the Year award than Tom Brady, but his fantasy ceiling is limited by the Bucs' rotation and his own injury history.
50. Kevin Smith, Lions | Age: 23.9 - Though Smith proved that his toughness was beyond question in playing through a shoulder separation, the Lions were already on the look-out for another back before his gruesome knee injury. With multiple ligaments torn, he's unlikely to be ready for Week 1.
51. Derrick Ward, Buccaneers | Age: 30.1 – Ward wasn't reliable even as a flex option this season. What's going to change for next season?
Grab Bag Tier
52. Rashad Jennings, Jaguars | Age: 25.6 – An intriguing roster stash, but he doesn't hold much value outside of handcuffing Maurice Jones-Drew.
53. Glen Coffee, 49ers | Age: 23.4 – Which was the real Coffee? The mad slasher who tore up preseason action or the ineffective plodder who flunked his three-game audition when Frank Gore was injured?
54. Jerious Norwood, Falcons | Age: 27.2 – Norwood's string of posting unreal rate stats was stopped cold in 2009, when he was slowed by a hip injury. Three different coaching staffs have deemed him nothing more than a change of pace back, and his next one will as well.
55. Tim Hightower, Cardinals | Age: 24.4 - Was never a good bet to maintain startable value once the team drafted Beanie Wells, and it appears he's finally on the verge of losing flex value as well. Can catch the ball but doesn't do much with it afterward.
56. Lex Hilliard, Dolphins | Age: 26.2 – A big, physical back who can move well and catch passes, Hilliard has earned the No. 3 job in Miami for next season.
57. Jason Snelling, Falcons | Age: 26.9 – The Swiss Army knife of backups. A pedestrian talent, but Snelling has good size in a "jack of all trades, master of none" type of back.
58. Correll Buckhalter, Broncos | 31.11 – A fantastic change-of-pace back but 31-years-old and not quite a weekly flex option.
59. Larry Johnson, Bengals | 30.10 – Not worth the headache. The Bengals are one of the few teams that don't factor in character, so he could return in a backup role again next season.
60. Willie Parker, Steelers | 29.10 – Injuries and the effects of age have taken the "fast" out of Fast Willie. His inability to exploit an open hole was disconcerting.
61. Julius Jones, Seahawks | 29.1 - A prime candidate to be cut this offseason, Jones has been one of the most ineffective starters in the league for two straight years.
62. Brandon Jackson, Packers | 24.11 – Showed major improvement as a blocker in 2009, but he remains a subpar runner.
63. James Davis, Browns | 24.8 – Whatever window he may have had closed when Jerome Harrison carried the team to a 4-0 finish in December.
64. Mike Bell, Saints | 27.8 – Averaged 3.2 YPC from Week 8 on in an offense tailor-made for running back success.
65. Justin Fargas, Raiders | 30.8 – Raiders coaches love his run-to-contact style, but he's a 30-year-old back who doesn't catch passes, doesn't score, and splits touches
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Of his four fumbles in 266 touches this season, two came on kickoff returns.
Ages are listed as of Week 1 of the 2010 season. Brown is 28 now and will turn 29 late in the 2010 season.
Ages are listed as of Week 1 of the 2010 season. Brown is 28 now and will turn 29 late in the 2010 season.
Ages are listed as of Week 1 of the 2010 season. Brown is 28 now and will turn 29 late in the 2010 season.
I guess it's possible going forward, but they've been totally different through their first 4 or 5 years being in the league (with Benson under-performing his draft NFL draft status and Rudi over-achieving)
