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Christine Michael (3 Viewers)

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jurb26 said:
spreagle said:
Chaka said:
When do Michael owners become concerned about holding onto him?

If Lynch plays at his typical level this year (and there is no reason to think he wont) and stays in Seattle for 2015 do people start discounting Michael or he just a sunk cost at that point and you keep holding until 2016? And what if Marshawn is still there in 2016? He'll only be 30 and even if he isn't the same runner he is today (although it is possible he will be) he could still be the kind of runner who severely hinders the value of other RBs on the roster. There is also the possibility that Seattle will draft another RB by that time.

At what point do Michael owners regret not taking some of the deals you have been offered to this point?
I'm never giving up on Christine, it's all or nothing for me. Maybe when he reaches 16 tds I'll consider deals.

I don't usually talk about running backs his age, but when I saw him that draft day, that day I knew, I just knew, I got to have him, I'VE GOT TO HAVE HIM.
Could be a while before he reaches 16 career TDs.
Not a KISS fan?

 
Man i love me some Michael, the measurables, the burst, its all there. BUT, there is also part of me thats screaming this could be Jonathan Stewart all over again - just waiting and waiting for the freak to get his shot only to find out he cant handle a full load.

 
Sabertooth said:
RB1 - Age 28, makes 6.5 Million 2014 and 9.5 million in 2015, has scored 798.5 fantasy points since 2011 (his first year with his current team). His team drafted a running back in 2013 with the 62nd overall pick who is a physical marvel.

RB2 - Age 29, makes 11.75 million 2014 and 12.75 million in 2015, has scored 795.3 points since 2011. His team drafted a running back in the 2014 draft with the 96th overall pick who is a physical marvel.

Any guesses on who RB2 is in this case? He's older than Beast Mode, costs way more than Beast Mode, has missed more games than Beast Mode, has a much lamer nickname than Beast Mode, and hasn't scored as many fantasy points since Beast Mode arrived in Seattle. I'd give a hint but nobody is going to need it. Be careful though because it's blasphemy to speak ill of him.
So, in other words, both the Vikings and Seahawks will have to make a decision next year about whether they want to pay their older RB 12.75 million or 9.5 million respectively. Two similar but different situations regarding salary cap, roster constitution, etc.
No two situations are identical are they? No two players either. However people putting Marshawn out to pasture are jumping the gun. That's my only point. Marshall is younger than Adrian and has performed right on par with Adrian since coming to Seattle. Why would the team dump him if a reasonable deal could be worked out?

Why didn't the Seahawks just cut Marshawn this year when he held out instead of giving him more money? Weird for a team with a backup whose ceiling can "win your league for you."
for real???

They kept him and gave him more money cause their franchise QB still makes like a million a year, same with a few of there late round defenders who will command a big contract NEXT YEAR!!!!

They arent going to let Lynch go (for the 100th time) because Lynch isnt a good RB or valuable. They have other valuable players (arguably more valuable 2015 and beyond) to sign after this year.
Like I said, maybe he is gone. Maybe not. Maybe Michael gains a larger share of the carries in 2014 or 2015, maybe not. I understand how the cap works, I'm just saying that people need to temper expectations a bit. Like Sleeper 43 said above, Jonathan Stewart is starting to come to mind. People were absolutely positive that either Stewart or Williams would be cut loose. It was just a matter of being patient. We think we know, but we don't.

 
Man i love me some Michael, the measurables, the burst, its all there. BUT, there is also part of me thats screaming this could be Jonathan Stewart all over again - just waiting and waiting for the freak to get his shot only to find out he cant handle a full load.
Haha, this is exactly what I was going to say. Michael could very possibly be a poor man's Stewart. He's already torn an ACL and had a broken leg. But then again, Gore seemed to get hurt every year until he got older. I think Gore tore both ACLs in college and had surgery on both shoulders. But much like Fred Taylor, he became durable down the stretch. I guess we'll see which route Michael goes, but expecting him to be a 300 touch guy is not realistic after his showings in college.

Chaka said:
When do Michael owners become concerned about holding onto him?

If Lynch plays at his typical level this year (and there is no reason to think he wont) and stays in Seattle for 2015 do people start discounting Michael or he just a sunk cost at that point and you keep holding until 2016? And what if Marshawn is still there in 2016? He'll only be 30 and even if he isn't the same runner he is today (although it is possible he will be) he could still be the kind of runner who severely hinders the value of other RBs on the roster. There is also the possibility that Seattle will draft another RB by that time.

At what point do Michael owners regret not taking some of the deals you have been offered to this point?
This is the other reason I'd rather not get involved in the Michael mess. Lynch could easily pull a Gore. I thought Gore was going to be done long before now, but he just keep sticking around, being productive (and a fan favorite). Lynch has value to the Seahawks and might have lost some of his shine in the eyes of other franchises. He's also a fan favorite. If he's productive this year then I suspect they find a way to keep him next year.

I'd love to see what Michael could do, but between injuries and Lynch, I don't think he's a wise investment at his current price tag. Nor was he a good investment last year at his price tag at that time. A prerequisite for owning Michael is that you must be patient and optimistic.

 
I traded Tyler Wilson for him back in May 2013 so I don't really think I can lose on him. Wilson isn't even in the league anymore is he? All he costs me is a roster spot.

 
I traded Tyler Wilson for him back in May 2013 so I don't really think I can lose on him. Wilson isn't even in the league anymore is he? All he costs me is a roster spot.
No offense, but I don't think anyone really cares about your particular situation. We are all speaking in general terms, and generally, Michael cost a decent rookie pick and at least a year, probably two (or more) of burning a roster spot - YMMV on that opportunity cost. And now, the price is much higher, but the burned roster spot will be less than if one bought him last year.

 
I traded Tyler Wilson for him back in May 2013 so I don't really think I can lose on him. Wilson isn't even in the league anymore is he? All he costs me is a roster spot.
I find this hard to believe but if so, congrats on ripping some guy off. That was a horrible trade even back then.

 
I traded Tyler Wilson for him back in May 2013 so I don't really think I can lose on him. Wilson isn't even in the league anymore is he? All he costs me is a roster spot.
No offense, but I don't think anyone really cares about your particular situation. We are all speaking in general terms, and generally, Michael cost a decent rookie pick and at least a year, probably two (or more) of burning a roster spot - YMMV on that opportunity cost. And now, the price is much higher, but the burned roster spot will be less than if one bought him last year.
Sabretooth loves to talk about his own fictional fantasy situation in these types of threads.

 
I traded Tyler Wilson for him back in May 2013 so I don't really think I can lose on him. Wilson isn't even in the league anymore is he? All he costs me is a roster spot.
I find this hard to believe but if so, congrats on ripping some guy off. That was a horrible trade even back then.
about even so far in terms of fantasy production. Super flex league during our 2013 draft. Wilson was actually getting some buzz last year.
 
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I traded Tyler Wilson for him back in May 2013 so I don't really think I can lose on him. Wilson isn't even in the league anymore is he? All he costs me is a roster spot.
No offense, but I don't think anyone really cares about your particular situation. We are all speaking in general terms, and generally, Michael cost a decent rookie pick and at least a year, probably two (or more) of burning a roster spot - YMMV on that opportunity cost. And now, the price is much higher, but the burned roster spot will be less than if one bought him last year.
Sabretooth loves to talk about his own fictional fantasy situation in these types of threads.
:lmao: yep fictional.
 
I traded Tyler Wilson for him back in May 2013 so I don't really think I can lose on him. Wilson isn't even in the league anymore is he? All he costs me is a roster spot.
No offense, but I don't think anyone really cares about your particular situation. We are all speaking in general terms, and generally, Michael cost a decent rookie pick and at least a year, probably two (or more) of burning a roster spot - YMMV on that opportunity cost. And now, the price is much higher, but the burned roster spot will be less than if one bought him last year.
Sabretooth loves to talk about his own fictional fantasy situation in these types of threads.
:lmao: yep fictional.
Either fictional or or play with some people bad at FF. This isn't the first time we've talked about it.
 
Ok. :rolleyes: Trades often seem really one sided at one point only to swing back the other way. So far in the 16 months since that trade, neither has gained a single fantasy point for me or the other owner. Wilson was a fourth round QB on a team without a reliable QB option when that trade was made. In hindsight it looks bad but that's only because Wilson didn't live up to his draft slot. He was the highest drafted player not to make an opening day roster last year but that was months after the trade went down.

Despite all these supposedly bad trades, I have yet to win a dynasty championship. Christine Michael might have helped last year, but alas he never made it off my bench.

 
Ok. :rolleyes: Trades often seem really one sided at one point only to swing back the other way. So far in the 16 months since that trade, neither has gained a single fantasy point for me or the other owner. Wilson was a fourth round QB on a team without a reliable QB option when that trade was made. In hindsight it looks bad but that's only because Wilson didn't live up to his draft slot. He was the highest drafted player not to make an opening day roster last year but that was months after the trade went down.

Despite all these supposedly bad trades, I have yet to win a dynasty championship. Christine Michael might have helped last year, but alas he never made it off my bench.
Wilson's value at its peak was never anywhere near what Michael's was at its low unless we're talking about 2qb leagues here (and even in that case, probably not).

 
There doesn't seem to be much talk about number of carries that Lynch has had last year unless it was a lot earlier in this thread and I just didn't go back far enough.

With the playoffs he had 366 carries plus 37 or so catches as well. That is over the dreaded 400 touch mark which usually marks doom for the next year for a RB and many times they are never the same for their career. Yes a few guys have avoided it but the vast majority suffer.

 
Ok. :rolleyes: Trades often seem really one sided at one point only to swing back the other way. So far in the 16 months since that trade, neither has gained a single fantasy point for me or the other owner. Wilson was a fourth round QB on a team without a reliable QB option when that trade was made. In hindsight it looks bad but that's only because Wilson didn't live up to his draft slot. He was the highest drafted player not to make an opening day roster last year but that was months after the trade went down.

Despite all these supposedly bad trades, I have yet to win a dynasty championship. Christine Michael might have helped last year, but alas he never made it off my bench.
I do believe this part, FWIW :thumbup:

 
I agree with all this for sure. I'm not saying I know what will happen, I'm just saying that people are really jumping the gun on Michael. He hasn't shown anything at all. Even in the games he played in last year, Lynch played better.
Seattle only gave him significant playing time in games that were, on paper, blow-outs - the Jaguars and Falcons. Small sample size but he averaged 4.4 per carry.

To borrow someone else's line... it's a situation in which you have to be optimistic and patient. And as you said, he just costs a roster spot right now. Are we jumping the gun? In a dynasty format, if he isn't on my roster, he is on another. It's too late by the time he gets a chance.

 
Ok. :rolleyes: Trades often seem really one sided at one point only to swing back the other way. So far in the 16 months since that trade, neither has gained a single fantasy point for me or the other owner. Wilson was a fourth round QB on a team without a reliable QB option when that trade was made. In hindsight it looks bad but that's only because Wilson didn't live up to his draft slot. He was the highest drafted player not to make an opening day roster last year but that was months after the trade went down.

Despite all these supposedly bad trades, I have yet to win a dynasty championship. Christine Michael might have helped last year, but alas he never made it off my bench.
Wilson's value at its peak was never anywhere near what Michael's was at its low unless we're talking about 2qb leagues here (and even in that case, probably not).
Superflex. But I agree. I have a bad habit of mentioning my teams or how I got a player. I guess I just meant it to indicate that I didn't pay much for Michael. I think some of the owners of Michael have a lot invested and they are letting that cloud their judgment or opinions on him. I'm not. I didn't pay much but I do own him.

I have Michael ranked in a dead heat with Knile Davis. I'd give a second round pick for him right now but not more.

 
Ok. :rolleyes: Trades often seem really one sided at one point only to swing back the other way. So far in the 16 months since that trade, neither has gained a single fantasy point for me or the other owner. Wilson was a fourth round QB on a team without a reliable QB option when that trade was made. In hindsight it looks bad but that's only because Wilson didn't live up to his draft slot. He was the highest drafted player not to make an opening day roster last year but that was months after the trade went down.

Despite all these supposedly bad trades, I have yet to win a dynasty championship. Christine Michael might have helped last year, but alas he never made it off my bench.
Wilson's value at its peak was never anywhere near what Michael's was at its low unless we're talking about 2qb leagues here (and even in that case, probably not).
Superflex. But I agree. I have a bad habit of mentioning my teams or how I got a player. I guess I just meant it to indicate that I didn't pay much for Michael. I think some of the owners of Michael have a lot invested and they are letting that cloud their judgment or opinions on him. I'm not. I didn't pay much but I do own him.

I have Michael ranked in a dead heat with Knile Davis. I'd give a second round pick for him right now but not more.
Interesting comparison. Both 5'10 220ish with speed.

Here is ESPN take on both:

Michael is a great example of why you shouldn't bite on preseason performances. No RB looked like a scarier combo of size and moves than the 220-pounder did as a rookie last summer. But when the regular season started, the Seahawks stuck by Robert Turbin as Marshawn Lynch's backup, and Michael posted just 18 touches as a rookie. On tape, though, there's no comparison between Michael and Turbin. The latter is a grinder; the former is a future star. Michael had disciplinary and health issues at Texas A&M, and no doubt those could crop up again and derail him. But we'd be surprised if he isn't No. 2 on Seattle's depth chart in 2014.

Last summer Davis looked like the dictionary definition of "untapped potential." A 227-pound freak who runs a 4.37 40, Davis was an oft-injured fumbler in college who never produced to the level of his abilities. This summer Davis looks like the dictionary definition of "handcuff." When the Chiefs rested Jamaal Charles in Week 17 last season, Davis got a chance and was fabulous, and he was even better in KC's wild-card game after Charles got hurt. True, Davis himself broke his leg in that same game, but he'll be fine by training camp. If you draft Charles, you absolutely must snag Davis too.

And their rankings:

POSITION RK % OWNED LAST 7 DAYS

Davis 53 32.4 +3.9

Michael 112 74.5 +4.4

Interesting, Davis has the higher ranking but look at the difference in public opinion (% owned)

ETA: Who knows where they get their rankings? Assuming these are overall (not just backs)... Puts Davis at an early 5th round handcuff and Michael in the 10th.

 
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Ok. :rolleyes: Trades often seem really one sided at one point only to swing back the other way. So far in the 16 months since that trade, neither has gained a single fantasy point for me or the other owner. Wilson was a fourth round QB on a team without a reliable QB option when that trade was made. In hindsight it looks bad but that's only because Wilson didn't live up to his draft slot. He was the highest drafted player not to make an opening day roster last year but that was months after the trade went down.

Despite all these supposedly bad trades, I have yet to win a dynasty championship. Christine Michael might have helped last year, but alas he never made it off my bench.
Wilson's value at its peak was never anywhere near what Michael's was at its low unless we're talking about 2qb leagues here (and even in that case, probably not).
Superflex. But I agree. I have a bad habit of mentioning my teams or how I got a player. I guess I just meant it to indicate that I didn't pay much for Michael. I think some of the owners of Michael have a lot invested and they are letting that cloud their judgment or opinions on him. I'm not. I didn't pay much but I do own him.

I have Michael ranked in a dead heat with Knile Davis. I'd give a second round pick for him right now but not more.
Forgetting that you like to talk about your team (because sometimes I guess it's useful to other people to get a gauge of his value to know how others acquired particular players), I think it set off alarms because Tyler Wilson had a dismal senior year, followed by a poor combine, followed by an unimpressive pro day, then a bad draft experience, then failing to help himself in camp. It was across the board that Wilson was a long shot prospect from a long time ago and his stock never improved. I think there might have been a blip when he connected on 3 straight passes, but that was as good as it got for Tyler Wilson. Michael might not have scored points his rookie year, but he has value as a potential FF relevant player, even if it's hype. Wilson has nothing. Even if a 2 QB league, Wilson's value was very, very limited (obvious euphemism). It's that reason that the trade appears to be rooted in fantasy. If you say it happened, fine. People will still give you crap about it and it doesn't help the perspective of anyone else because that trade would never happen anywhere else but a Sabretooth league. :)

I'm a Michael owner and am happy with owning him so far. I didn't expect him to be relevant in year 1 or 2 so owning him is going as expected. I'm not going to worry about bad preseason games unless they are catastrophic, which at this point they are not. I would be willing to trade but I'm expecting a starting value player in return and I think there are few people in my leagues that are willing to offer that. I have received zero trade offers for him and do not expect to.

 
The difference between Knile Davis and Christine Michael (admittedly similar based on freak measurables) is the difference between Charles and Lynch.

Lynch has been up at and over 300 carries each of the last 3 seasons, sometimes going over the 370 formula if you include playoffs. Charles has come close two times, but is also a year younger. Lynch's contract is just not going to work next year when the RB makes 7m and the QB makes 800k.

Michael has a greater chance of being a starter in 2015 than Davis.

 
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I agree with that. It appears there is a good chance Lynch is in his final year as a Seahawk. He's also been use and abused but Charles has been injured more.

 
Ok. :rolleyes: Trades often seem really one sided at one point only to swing back the other way. So far in the 16 months since that trade, neither has gained a single fantasy point for me or the other owner. Wilson was a fourth round QB on a team without a reliable QB option when that trade was made. In hindsight it looks bad but that's only because Wilson didn't live up to his draft slot. He was the highest drafted player not to make an opening day roster last year but that was months after the trade went down.

Despite all these supposedly bad trades, I have yet to win a dynasty championship. Christine Michael might have helped last year, but alas he never made it off my bench.
Wilson's value at its peak was never anywhere near what Michael's was at its low unless we're talking about 2qb leagues here (and even in that case, probably not).
Superflex. But I agree. I have a bad habit of mentioning my teams or how I got a player. I guess I just meant it to indicate that I didn't pay much for Michael. I think some of the owners of Michael have a lot invested and they are letting that cloud their judgment or opinions on him. I'm not. I didn't pay much but I do own him. I have Michael ranked in a dead heat with Knile Davis. I'd give a second round pick for him right now but not more.
Forgetting that you like to talk about your team (because sometimes I guess it's useful to other people to get a gauge of his value to know how others acquired particular players), I think it set off alarms because Tyler Wilson had a dismal senior year, followed by a poor combine, followed by an unimpressive pro day, then a bad draft experience, then failing to help himself in camp. It was across the board that Wilson was a long shot prospect from a long time ago and his stock never improved. I think there might have been a blip when he connected on 3 straight passes, but that was as good as it got for Tyler Wilson. Michael might not have scored points his rookie year, but he has value as a potential FF relevant player, even if it's hype. Wilson has nothing. Even if a 2 QB league, Wilson's value was very, very limited (obvious euphemism). It's that reason that the trade appears to be rooted in fantasy. If you say it happened, fine. People will still give you crap about it and it doesn't help the perspective of anyone else because that trade would never happen anywhere else but a Sabretooth league. :)
Don't underestimate the Matt Waldman effect.
 
What a horrible whiff by Michael on that end zone throw. Could have gotten the QB demolished.

To be so far off on it, would think he is closing his eyes upon the perceived impact.

 
Michael is REALLY talented. It can be argued that he hasn't earned a bigger role, or that he does not grasp the playbook, or that is struggling with blocks... but if anyone argues that the ability is missing I will assume it's April 1st.

 
Yea, Michael needs to hold onto the ball. I missed the whiff earlier in the game, but he looked solid blocking from late second quarter on. He put a blitzing LB on his ### in the third, and blocked two guys on Wilson's second TD run. Still, looks like Turbin isn't going to give up his spot without a fight.

 
Guys, in the NFL fumbles can be forgiven (see Barber, Tiki) but if you can't be trusted to protect the franchise you won't see much playing time. Michael is undeniably talented running the ball but he isn't passing Turbin on the depth chart until they have faith that he isn't going to get Wilson killed. We see this all the time but people always refuse to accept it as reality because someone runs really shifty or fast.

 
Guys, in the NFL fumbles can be forgiven (see Barber, Tiki) but if you can't be trusted to protect the franchise you won't see much playing time. Michael is undeniably talented running the ball but he isn't passing Turbin on the depth chart until they have faith that he isn't going to get Wilson killed. We see this all the time but people always refuse to accept it as reality because someone runs really shifty or fast.
On the other hand, I can't think of one talented back whose career was lost because he didn't learn how to block. They always say stuff like this, and they always learn how to do it.

 
Turbin is pretty underrated at this point. If he was on a different team and not blocking CM's path to fantasy relevance, I think a lot of people would see him in a different light.

 
Guys, in the NFL fumbles can be forgiven (see Barber, Tiki) but if you can't be trusted to protect the franchise you won't see much playing time. Michael is undeniably talented running the ball but he isn't passing Turbin on the depth chart until they have faith that he isn't going to get Wilson killed. We see this all the time but people always refuse to accept it as reality because someone runs really shifty or fast.
On the other hand, I can't think of one talented back whose career was lost because he didn't learn how to block. They always say stuff like this, and they always learn how to do it.
And he probably will but right now he looks like he is still struggling and that won't get him on the field before Turbin.

 
Imagine if CM did what Turbin did last night. People would be freaking out.
What he means is Old Testament real wrath-of-God type stuff! Fire and brimstone coming down from the sky! Rivers and seas boiling! Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes! The dead rising from the grave! Human sacrifice! Dogs and cats, living together! Mass hysteria!
 
For the most part I thought Turbin looked really good last night. He still has a few issues not going down on first contact but if Michael is going to cough one up every game he's not going to see the field at all. I have a feeling he's going to be doing one of those "hold a ball all week long" types of stunts as punishment.

Still, I can't help think if he can get it together he'll be special. That "if" however is starting to grow into more concern if I'm being honest with myself.

 
Guys, in the NFL fumbles can be forgiven (see Barber, Tiki) but if you can't be trusted to protect the franchise you won't see much playing time. Michael is undeniably talented running the ball but he isn't passing Turbin on the depth chart until they have faith that he isn't going to get Wilson killed. We see this all the time but people always refuse to accept it as reality because someone runs really shifty or fast.
On the other hand, I can't think of one talented back whose career was lost because he didn't learn how to block. They always say stuff like this, and they always learn how to do it.
He had a multitude of other problems, but Lawrence Phillips comes to mind. His blocking was terrible and it ended Steve Young's career.

 
Turbin and Michael both look good, but this is the sort of situation I avoid. They still have Lynch ahead of both of them. And if something does happen to Lynch, you don't know which of the two backups is going to get the starting gig. I will say this: if a young RB can't hold onto the ball, it doesn't matter how good he is running--he won't see much opportunity. So for redraft, I would probably prefer Turbin.

What you want if you draft a backup RB is a guy who is going to be the clearcut guy should the starter go down and do so on an offense that runs the ball well. Seattle runs the ball well, but does not have clarity on the pecking order.

 
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