I wish my dynasty draft was in May instead of August. I might have had a chance at 2.03, if this news keeps coming out he'll be a sure-fire 1st rounder.
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Christine Michael (1 Viewer)
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EBF
Footballguy
I like the value that he offers in drafts compared to guys like Franklin/Stacy/Bernard/Bell. I ended up getting him in a couple leagues and I wouldn't mind having him on a couple more of my rosters. He's flying under the radar to some extent right now, but his value will explode if/when he gets an opportunity to start.
The obvious issue is his lack of durability and production. He wasn't even the leading rusher on his college team last season. For a guy with these workout numbers, you have to wonder why he was never quite able to put it together in any of his four years at Texas A&M. That has me a little worried about his long term viability, but he's set up nicely for a value spike regardless of whether or not he ultimately pans out. At some point Seattle will move on from Lynch and when that happens Michael will be a hot commodity.
That said, if your league is deep and you have Michael then I recommend handcuffing him with Spencer Ware. And if you don't have Michael, I'd try to grab Ware off waivers if he's available in your league. I've heard that he's going to be a RB/FB for Seattle, but he's built more like a tailback than a lead blocker and he's an interesting sleeper pick in his own right. If Michael flops or gets injured, he could have some value. I kind of liken it to the Pead/Richardson situation last year, although I like Michael a lot more than Pead. Might as well cover your bases if you've gone through the trouble to draft Michael.
The obvious issue is his lack of durability and production. He wasn't even the leading rusher on his college team last season. For a guy with these workout numbers, you have to wonder why he was never quite able to put it together in any of his four years at Texas A&M. That has me a little worried about his long term viability, but he's set up nicely for a value spike regardless of whether or not he ultimately pans out. At some point Seattle will move on from Lynch and when that happens Michael will be a hot commodity.
That said, if your league is deep and you have Michael then I recommend handcuffing him with Spencer Ware. And if you don't have Michael, I'd try to grab Ware off waivers if he's available in your league. I've heard that he's going to be a RB/FB for Seattle, but he's built more like a tailback than a lead blocker and he's an interesting sleeper pick in his own right. If Michael flops or gets injured, he could have some value. I kind of liken it to the Pead/Richardson situation last year, although I like Michael a lot more than Pead. Might as well cover your bases if you've gone through the trouble to draft Michael.
From what I've seen, the guy has enough athletic ability to succeed in the league. If he's around a winning franchise and a decent RB like Lynch, I think he can learn to do exactly what it takes to succeed in this league.
If you play redraft, look for an injury to Lynch.
If you play dynasty, stash him.
If you play redraft, look for an injury to Lynch.
If you play dynasty, stash him.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Beast.I liked what I saw on the field from Christine Michael in limited time at A&M. However, he had an ACL injury in 2011, and had to share carries in 2012 after being in the doghouse.
At the East/West Shrine game, Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com said:
His numbers were excellent at the combine...top 5 in many categories for RBrill Results Rank
Bench Press: 27 Reps 4th
40-Yard Dash: 4.54 seconds 10th
Vertical Jump: 43” 1st
Broad Jump: 10’5” 2nd
Cone Drill: 6.69 seconds 1st
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.02 seconds 1st
60-Yard Shuttle: 11.56 seconds 6th
He's had injuries, attitude issues, apparently isn't great in pass pro, and now overslept at the combine, missing a couple of Team interviews.
http://m.nfl.com/news/0ap1000000145607/christine-michael-overslept-at-nfl-scouting-combine/
What is your take on this guy? Is he worth a look, or will his 2 cent head keep him from making it in the NFL?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Plus he'll have access to all the best performance enhancing "supplements" in Seattle.Beast.I liked what I saw on the field from Christine Michael in limited time at A&M. However, he had an ACL injury in 2011, and had to share carries in 2012 after being in the doghouse.
At the East/West Shrine game, Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com said:
His numbers were excellent at the combine...top 5 in many categories for RB
Bench Press: 27 Reps 4th
40-Yard Dash: 4.54 seconds 10th
Vertical Jump: 43” 1st
Broad Jump: 10’5” 2nd
Cone Drill: 6.69 seconds 1st
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.02 seconds 1st
60-Yard Shuttle: 11.56 seconds 6th
He's had injuries, attitude issues, apparently isn't great in pass pro, and now overslept at the combine, missing a couple of Team interviews.
http://m.nfl.com/news/0ap1000000145607/christine-michael-overslept-at-nfl-scouting-combine/
What is your take on this guy? Is he worth a look, or will his 2 cent head keep him from making it in the NFL?
All kidding aside, I think Michael is the only rookie I have rostered in both my dynasty leagues. I am not a bid fan of stashing but I am making an exception. He is especially valuable obviously if you own Lynch. But I wouldn't discount Turbin just yet. He looked very capable last season and has been with the team a year. You don't want to be too much against a guy nicknamed Seahulk.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Michael would split carries with Turbin this season if something happened to Lynch.Plus he'll have access to all the best performance enhancing "supplements" in Seattle.Beast.I liked what I saw on the field from Christine Michael in limited time at A&M. However, he had an ACL injury in 2011, and had to share carries in 2012 after being in the doghouse.
At the East/West Shrine game, Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com said:
His numbers were excellent at the combine...top 5 in many categories for RB
Bench Press: 27 Reps 4th
40-Yard Dash: 4.54 seconds 10th
Vertical Jump: 43” 1st
Broad Jump: 10’5” 2nd
Cone Drill: 6.69 seconds 1st
20-Yard Shuttle: 4.02 seconds 1st
60-Yard Shuttle: 11.56 seconds 6th
He's had injuries, attitude issues, apparently isn't great in pass pro, and now overslept at the combine, missing a couple of Team interviews.
http://m.nfl.com/news/0ap1000000145607/christine-michael-overslept-at-nfl-scouting-combine/
What is your take on this guy? Is he worth a look, or will his 2 cent head keep him from making it in the NFL?
All kidding aside, I think Michael is the only rookie I have rostered in both my dynasty leagues. I am not a bid fan of stashing but I am making an exception. He is especially valuable obviously if you own Lynch. But I wouldn't discount Turbin just yet. He looked very capable last season and has been with the team a year. You don't want to be too much against a guy nicknamed Seahulk.
There was also a recent radio interview with Seattle RB's coach Sherman Smith who spent a ton of time talking about the development of Robert Turbin and how he should be getting more carries. I'm pretty sure at one point he said Michael would not get significant carries this year unless there's an injury to Lynch or Turbin. It sounds like he definitely believes Turbin will be RB2.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
and I agree with you. Rostering Ware would be ridiculous.
EBF
Footballguy
I think that's an oversimplification.
From Carroll himself:
http://blogs.seattletimes.com/seahawks/2013/05/10/rookie-mini-camp-day-one-carroll-quotes-and-more/?syndication=rss
Ware showed up weighing 218 pounds at Seattle's rookie minicamp, which is not only a significant decrease from his two pro days, but also a very low figure for a FB.
So while I think there's some truth in some of your points, I don't think you've got it entirely right. Yes, he was drafted with a versatile role in mind and he'll likely need to make himself into a serviceable blocker in order to get onto the roster in the first year. It's pretty clear that Seattle wants him to polish that aspect of his game so that he'll be useful in that role. However, I think Seattle is looking at him as more of a versatile backfield talent than a pure blocker. So I stand by what I said. If for some reason Michael falters, Ware would suddenly become a very interesting player here as a 5'10" 220 back with plus receiving skills.
Nobody is saying that this is likely, but FF is tricky and unpredictable. I doubt many Isaiah Pead owners felt they had to grab Daryl Richardson at this time a year ago. If you only consider the most likely outcome, you might find yourself at a disadvantage if things don't happen that way. I think teams who rostered Michael should strongly consider grabbing Ware off waivers and watching both closely during the preseason. Assuming that you have the roster space, the cost is nil. Just a waiver pickup.
EBF
Footballguy
Continuing on the topic of Ware for a minute...
Ware looked like a guy who might have a chance at a real NFL future from the first time I saw him play at LSU. He fit the mold from a physical standpoint and flashed some of the necessary skills. I tracked him pretty closely throughout his career and had him pegged as one of my short list players throughout the pre-draft process. A guy who might offer good value relative to what it would cost to acquire him. His pro day numbers weren't great, but there was enough there to make you think he has a chance. 4.62 40, 35.5" vert, 9'11" broad jump, 7.07 three cone time. Borderline numbers that become a little more compelling when you consider that he tested at 5'10.1" 228. I was pleased when he went to Seattle because, while it totally killed his value, it also meant that I would be able to get him on my teams without a significant outlay.
CFN generally does a decent job of summarizing draft prospects and I thought their take on Ware was interesting:
Will he beat out Christine Michael? I doubt it. Ware wasn't that amazing in college. He had modest stats and a low YPC. He has good size and power, but is a stiff north-south runner who doesn't always show the footwork or hip flexibility to make good cuts and avoid tacklers. I own Michael in a couple leagues and I think he's clearly the better bet at this juncture. He's a more explosive athlete and much more likely to end up as the starter here.
Putting that aside, I would've liked Ware as a deep sleeper independent of his situation. It turns out that he went to one of the worst situations possible. Not only did he land on a team with a stacked RB corps, but they're also talking about him playing fullback. Here's the thing though...going to one of the worst situations possible doesn't mean that he still can't turn into a decent player in his own right. I think there's enough there that Michael owners looking to solidify their holdings and non-Michael owners looking for a cheap developmental prospect might want to grab him and see what they've got. That's all I'm really saying.
Also, Michael isn't exactly known as the picture of durability. Another good reason to hedge your bets.
Ware looked like a guy who might have a chance at a real NFL future from the first time I saw him play at LSU. He fit the mold from a physical standpoint and flashed some of the necessary skills. I tracked him pretty closely throughout his career and had him pegged as one of my short list players throughout the pre-draft process. A guy who might offer good value relative to what it would cost to acquire him. His pro day numbers weren't great, but there was enough there to make you think he has a chance. 4.62 40, 35.5" vert, 9'11" broad jump, 7.07 three cone time. Borderline numbers that become a little more compelling when you consider that he tested at 5'10.1" 228. I was pleased when he went to Seattle because, while it totally killed his value, it also meant that I would be able to get him on my teams without a significant outlay.
CFN generally does a decent job of summarizing draft prospects and I thought their take on Ware was interesting:
They seem to view him as a talented player with untapped potential, specifically noting that he would benefit from taking his conditioning more seriously and getting into better shape. The fact that he showed up at Seahawks camp 10 pounds lighter than his pro day weight is interesting from that standpoint. A motivated and fit Spencer Ware could be a dangerous proposition.
Will he beat out Christine Michael? I doubt it. Ware wasn't that amazing in college. He had modest stats and a low YPC. He has good size and power, but is a stiff north-south runner who doesn't always show the footwork or hip flexibility to make good cuts and avoid tacklers. I own Michael in a couple leagues and I think he's clearly the better bet at this juncture. He's a more explosive athlete and much more likely to end up as the starter here.
Putting that aside, I would've liked Ware as a deep sleeper independent of his situation. It turns out that he went to one of the worst situations possible. Not only did he land on a team with a stacked RB corps, but they're also talking about him playing fullback. Here's the thing though...going to one of the worst situations possible doesn't mean that he still can't turn into a decent player in his own right. I think there's enough there that Michael owners looking to solidify their holdings and non-Michael owners looking for a cheap developmental prospect might want to grab him and see what they've got. That's all I'm really saying.
Also, Michael isn't exactly known as the picture of durability. Another good reason to hedge your bets.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Summed it up perfectly. In one league I own Lynch and Turbin. I can;t roster three players for one position. Not in a salary cap league. Someone else can buy that lottery ticket...
They drafted Michael for a reason. Ask yourself why. So they could have a crowded backfield? I think the cream will rise to the top and Lynch's expiration date is sooner than some think.
I'm more in the camp that they don't expect to re-sign Lynch to a contract post-2016, and none of his 2015 money is guaranteed. If they're confident in the rest of the group, they might let him off a year early.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Lynch will also be 29 years old going into the 2015 season. He's a power runner, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him begin to fall off a bit. Nor would it be surprising if he "pulls a Steven Jackson" and changes teams to play out his final 1-2 years in the league. It will all depend on health and his price tag.
That said, I find it weird when folks talk about drafting a rookie to play a big role 3 years into the future. SOMEBODY in your league will fall in love with C Michael sooner than that, pushing up his price tag, and then similarly fall out of love with him when he produces jack #### in 2013. If folks REALLY believe he'll do squat this year, he's a perfect buy low candidate next year.
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Faust
MVP
The measurables and athleticism are elite with this kid, but the risk with him is in his attitude and character. He ran afoul of his college coaches who buried his playing time in his final year, and he slept in and missed a few team interviews at the combine, only to claim that he was ill and the medicine that he was taking was the cause.
The pedigree and skill is certainly intriguing, but he isn't without a degree of risk to be sure.
From Wikipedia:
The pedigree and skill is certainly intriguing, but he isn't without a degree of risk to be sure.
From Wikipedia:
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So you feel that Turbin will be 2nd and Michael 3rd on the depth chart, likely for the next couple years? Fair enough. I like Michael more than Turbin so view it the other way around, in a salary cap league I don't hang on to the 3rd RB in a situation, no matter how many guys of the 1sts and 2nds I own. In dynasty leagues it is a different story, I would be okay trading for Turbin while having Michael and not even having Lynch.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
They may let Lynch go next year and certainly they will the year after that. They have to sign Russell Wilson and Richard Sherman. At that time Lynch will be approaching 30 with tons of miles on those tires. They won't be 2nd/3rd for too long.
jsharlan
Footballguy
I honestly think they drafted by BPA available from their board. Carrol has shown they can operate outside of the box in their management style, like starting the best players regardless of salary or pedigree. There might not have been a set plan for Michael, they just liked him.
jsharlan
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
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GeeYouknit
Footballguy
Drafted Turbin last year and took Michael this year at the 9 spot so I'll happily invest 2 of 30 roster spots in these guys for the next 2-3 years and wait for one to explode
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Turbin is already under contract. Whether he is 2nd or 3rd, I don't know.... I can't afford the $$$ or the roster spots. This league only has 22 man rosters.
I agree. My point is that I wouldn't roster any RB who is 3rd on the depth chart, so for me I either feel Turbin would be 2nd or I don't roster him (same for Michael). However, my contract league only has 18 roster spots (and 29 contract years total, so often go below 18 roster spots), so am a bit more constrained than you would be.
I'd be willing to bet any amount of money that, without injury, Michael won't be 2nd string over Turbin this year.
Next year, who knows. But Turbin is a very talented back who could perform very well IMO in the lead role, and he has an extra year in the system than Michael.
Next year, who knows. But Turbin is a very talented back who could perform very well IMO in the lead role, and he has an extra year in the system than Michael.
Faust
MVP
It remains to be seen if he can reach the required expectations for blocking at the NFL level. This component will be one of the key pieces to how quickly the coaching staff feels confident in his ability to not get his QB destroyed, and will determine how much playing time he will receive and how quickly he will ascend the depth chart.
Hooper31
Footballguy
Michael was drafted as a replacement for Washington. Washington was let go as a cap causality. Its not a crowded backfield. They had a hole in the roster and were going to draft a RB at some point in the draft. They only had Lynch, Turbin, and Robinson under contract at the time of the draft. They weren't planning on headed to OTAs and training camp with three RBs on the roster.
Ware was drafted as potential replacement for Robinson. Robinson may also become a cap causality.
If you are really interested in learning the ins and outs of the Seattle cap situation I would suggest following Davis Hsu on twitter.He knows the Seattle cap situation better than anyone else I know. He's posted many detailed analysis articles on field gulls.
IMO opinion Turbin is the guy to have if Lynch were to go down. Turbin shined in his limited role last year and I don't see any reason to think that this season will be different.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
Michael is a boom/bust type of pick as a replacement for Marshawn/competition for Turbin. I remember reading that as a pure runner he was the best in this class but his peripheral skills (blocking, blitz recognition, receiving, route running, character concerns) were not up to snuff. Obviously his measurables are in line with elite athletes.
I think in dynasty circles he has similar boom/bust characteristics. He might replace Marshawn in 2014 or 2015, we don't really know but he'd certainly have to BOOM to do that. He might be a career backup too though because he never really puts the rest together. We see this sometimes with players. All the pieces appear to be there but they never really get it together. Guys like Jonathan Stewart, and Felix Jones come to mind, as well as Chris Henry and Laurence Maroney. Just seems like something holds them back when it shouldn't.
If he does hit though I think you've got the next iteration of Ahman Green or Thomas Jones on your hands.
adrenaline
Footballguy
Hard not to worry about this guy's character with his history. He had a tough senior campaign and did not see eye-to-eye with new Head Coach Kevin Sumlin. Suspended for the SMU game for violating team rules. Also was ejected from the Sam Houston State game for throwing a punch in the second quarter. Slept through two meeting with scouts at the NFL combine.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I agree. I put his chances at 33% he hits big ala Ahman Green, 33% he is mediocre despite his obvious physical prowess ala James Starks, and 33% he's a total bust ala Chris Henry.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
jsharlan
Footballguy
I agree Turbin looked good. Its just if I am going to roll the dice on a backup back in Seattle long term, I think Michael is more talented. Doesn't necessarily mean that he will play more than Turbin in 2013.
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Hooper31
Footballguy
Totally on board with this. However, if there's one coaching staff in the NFL that doesn't believe in "entrenched starters" they're in Seattle. Coach Carroll is very upfront with everyone that there is ALWAYS a competition for every job. Best performers are going to play every week.
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
Maybe it's just me, but I thought Turbin looked very average. No top end speed, no wiggle. He can catch. This is one of the reasons I'm high on Michael outside of his talent, which is considerable. I think by the end of the year, you will see more of Michael than Turbin.
If they were happy with Turbin as a backup, they wouldn't have drafted Michael in the 2nd. They also wouldn't be giving Michael this many 1st team reps. Turbin is a solid back but nothing special that is going to keep him off the bench.
Christine Michael has much more upside, imo. That's just what my eyeballs tell me.
Christine Michael has much more upside, imo. That's just what my eyeballs tell me.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
i disagree, Seattle was just going boa there. Probably had a first round or early second round grade on Michael.
Rookie_Whisperer
Footballguy
I agree. I don't see anything remotely special in Turbin in terms of moving with the ball in his hands. If something happens to Lynch, Turbin is far from a lock at getting first crack with the ones.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Which by definition is a higher grade than they had on Turbin, or else they likely would have drafted Turbin a lot higher last year. Which, by extension of logic means at this moment today they like Michael more than they liked Turbin at this same time last year.
Do you disagree with that breakdown?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I don't disagree (although who knows, they may have had a first round grade on Turbin last year too but just had him behind Bruce Irvin, Bobby Wagner, and Russell Wilson)
But I don't think it necessarily means they view Turbin as backup material. I don't think the selection of Michael is a commentary on Turbin at all. I think Michael will live and die by his own merit. If he's really really good, he'll push past Turbin (unless Turbin is better). If he's mediocre he won't. If Michael (or Turbin for that matter) is truly special, they'll rise to the top. Heck if Michael hits his ceiling early, he might eat into Lynch's carries by the end of the year ala Bernard Pierce.
I remember thinking this with Randall Cobb. Cream rises, doesn't matter who else is there. Nobody thought Cobb would get into the rotation with Driver, Jennings, and Jordy and Jones coming off breakout seasons. Yet there he was.
Cream rises, this is especially true in Seattle where there is true competition at every position.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Fair enough. I'll continue to think it's highly unlikely that they viewed Turbin as favorably last year as they do Michael today.
That said, given what the Hawks know about Turbin today, it's possible they would have drafted him somewhere in rounds 1-3 today. Which is really all that matters.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I agree. I think they saw an opportunity to field perhaps the best depth at the position of any team in the NFL and jumped on it. I really think top to bottom they are super strong, even stronger than last year. I think they know how they want to win games which is pounding teams into submission in the second half. They now have perhaps three different player that can just deliver body blows to opposing defenses and the clock. Running back don't play 16 games all the time and this team doesn't lose much if they end up in a situation where they are trotting out their number 3 guy like Detroit and Green Bay have done in recent years.
sho nuff
Footballguy
How they had viewed Turbin the previous year is pretty irrelevant.
How did they view Wilson last year? And how do they view him now?
Obviously, Wilson has had more work and success to change that...but Turbin has done things to change how they feel about him as well IMO.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6UmX-6m0s8
Here are his 2012 highlights. He would absolutely thrive if given the same opportunity as Lynch. Combine that with praise from the RBs coach(much more than Michael), and an extra year in the system, and Turbin is the one to own as a handcuff for 2013.
His catch and run at the end of the Atlanta game was one of the better plays I've seen a RB make.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
I agree with Rookie_Whisperer, I just don't think Turbin is special. He has the ablity to be very good.....just not special. Michael on the other hand has the potential to be special. When you watch the two run Michael looks a lot like Ahman Green.
Shanahanigans
Footballguy
Although he doesn't have the natural abilities of Michael, Turbin is a better receiver and less of a headcase.
sho nuff
Footballguy
You are quite welcome.Thanks for repeating what I already wrote in post 92.
Sorry, was reading the posts in order and not finishing the whole conversation you two were having.
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