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Christine Michael (3 Viewers)
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Dinkle Heimer
Footballguy
Lots of ridiculous back and forth here. But, anyone who believed that Christine Michael was going to auto-take over for Beast Mode in case of injury during the 2013 season was completely off-mark.
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ShaHBucks
Footballguy
No kidding. Not one person here discounted Michael's talent. It's just 10+ pages of nothing but comments on something that is out of every fantasy players control, OPPORTUNITY(now imagination?). This thread will be 50+ pages before Michael has 3 good games. I will offer you Zac Stacy for Michael+ whenever I see some logic in Michael getting 200+ carries in a season. Easy game.
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JackReacher
Footballguy
Lynch owner with a couple 2014 firsts looking for a price check..
EBF
Footballguy
Think you'll find that the price will vary wildly depending on who you're dealing with. I offered Fitz straight up in two leagues and was rejected. I was able to get Michael in a different league (14 team start 2 RB w/ devy players and .5/1/1.5 PPR) for a late 1st round rookie pick and a mid first round devy pick. I consider that to be a relatively close deal. I like my side more because I have more confidence in Michael than anyone I'd be drafting in those slots, but there is upside on the other end if the guy drafts well.
I would think most owners would sell for a top 3 rookie pick in a league where everyone is available. The more bullish owners might consider that a wash or at the very least demand something like 1.04-1.06. I would probably put his value right around the 1.04-1.05 rookie pick. Depends slightly on your league and on how good some of these prospects are looking after they've been put through the ringer.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
Id wait until after free agency and the draft.JackReacher said:
I heard mentioned (as I alluded to a Sirius NFL report - but I didnt flatly state) that the Seahawks could/would be looking for yet another RB via FA or the Draft.
Regardless of the "why" , if it happens it would likely improve the buying price for you (or anyone else wanting Michael). And if it doesnt it probably doesnt change a whole lot provided you havent already had your leagues draft.
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JackReacher
Footballguy
Was thinking the 1.5-1.6 range. Michael has to be one of the most intriguing risk/reward prospects out thereEBF said:
Gandalf
Footballguy
Bottom line: Christine Michael is very talented and at the same time stuck behind a very good RB that is currently leading his team deep into the playoffs. It reminds me of Michael Turner behind LT. Every year we turner owners held out hope that this would be the year he got traded or something. Maybe lynch gets hurt or leaves in 2015. If he does then CM should be an absolute beast. Until that happens he is not going to help your team. The ideal owner for CM is someone who has lynch also. Then you can keep him without having to figure all this out.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Yeah, as a Michael owner that is exactly how I view him too.Gandalf said:
Problem is Michael has never been a beast, even in college his best season was 899 out of 4 years. Why is he going to all of a sudden be a monster in a much more difficult level? Im not saying he cant do it, but its a stretch and people are reaching. Turner was proven in the NFL to be a solid rb as a backup, apples to oranges.Gandalf said:
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Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
529-2791-34 are pretty solid career rushing #s. Light on total carries for a four year player, but decent overall.
So the problem isn't whether he did enough with his carries. If he'd had more of them his season-by-season numbers would have been strong. And guys with similar performance and similar physical tools have been very successful in the NFL.
The question is how problematic the injuries and problems with the coaching staff -- the issues that kept him from high volume touches -- will affect his NFL career. And no one knows the answer.
So the problem isn't whether he did enough with his carries. If he'd had more of them his season-by-season numbers would have been strong. And guys with similar performance and similar physical tools have been very successful in the NFL.
The question is how problematic the injuries and problems with the coaching staff -- the issues that kept him from high volume touches -- will affect his NFL career. And no one knows the answer.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Well put.Tdmills - the max single season yardage of 899 has already been addressed. In 2011, he had 899 yards in 9 games. Then he got injured. Dude was averaging 100 yards per game, and .89 TDs per game, when he got hurt. Not the same situation as a guy who gets 899 yards spread over 13-14 games.
wdcrob is right. The injuries and the knucklehead factor are a far bigger deal than his production. He has been productive when on the field.
I didn't read through 16 pages to see what was covered, so that's my fault. My issue is people projecting small sample sizes to large ones(David Wilson did this over a small span at the end of 2012 and therefore will have a huge 2013 for example). I know he was solid in college(i'm not discrediting your point), but how many RBs average to above average college production turn into great NFL careers? Foster/FWP did and were in the dog house, just like Michael. Yes injuries/dog house are important as well. I guess I just have a problem with people seeing what Lynch does, take out Lynch insert Michael and you get a beast...that will more than likely not happen and looking at the sample size of his entire career, he's never been the man for a prolonged period of time. Therefore, if people want to pay a large cost to obtain Michael on the chance of him being a "beast" go ahead. I just find it an unnecessary gamble. I'm not ignoring that foresight is a part of this equation and the gamble sometimes pays off (Demaryius Thomas). But someone could just as likely point at Stephen Hill and think elite athlete + above average college production= beast.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Very fair comments. As Tool commented, it would be nice to see him actually take snaps in the NFL. I don't expect much from him next year, but a pleasant outcome would be seeing him supplant Turbin as the clear backup.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I agree with this. Paying starter prices for unproven guys is a good way to blow up your team. That's what draft picks and other prospects are for. Michael was pretty cheap last year (10th-15th in most leagues), but his price now is pretty fair.
Having said... I think swinging for the fences is the way to go. I'd rather draft potentially elite talent with a lot of risks (Thomas, Gronk, Hill, Wilson, Michael for example) and hit on a topline stud 50% of the time than pick up a solid starter 80% of the time. I prefer to have a team with three top-20 overall guys and then fill in behind it than to have a team of guys ranked from 10th-20th at their positions. If you work the WW well you can get guys in the 15-25 range at little cost anyhow.
1) Would you swing for the fences on Michael?
2) If so, what would be your cap to pay?
I would pay an early 2nd rookie.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I already swung for the fences and drafted him in eight leagues last year
It's hard to say what I think he's worth without seeing the combine first, but based on everything I've seen his current market value is something like #5/6 rookie assuming it's a start two RB league.
I'm not really buying now though. I think that's a fair price with little upside built in, and I expect there will be rookies I'd be happy owning available after that point in this year's rookie draft. So I wouldn't be willing to move up, and if I owned a pick that early I'd be more likely to move back and pick up something else than trade it for Michael.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
He went #10-13 in last year's rookie drafts. And his price rose due to the great camp reports/pre-season.
coolnerd
Footballguy
And think there is going to be a gap where people who want Michaels are not willing to pay more than the draft pick he was selected last season versus this upgrade in the minds of people who own him already.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Sure... there's a gap between people who strongly believe in him and those who strongly don't.
But he's currently the #19 RB in Dynasty League Football's new dynasty rankings. So I think I can safely say that, on average, his price has risen in the last year.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
The problem with Davis is that he just got hurt with exactly the same kind of injury that he had two or three times in HS and college. Which is why he fell in the draft in the first place. I was on the verge of moving him way up in my rankings and buying him as the cuff to Charles in several leagues and then... after ~80 carries, oof.
So far at least Michael has drawn raves from practice observers, appears to be staying out of trouble and on the right side of the coaching staff, and hasn't gotten hurt.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Brian Griese managed to get hurt away from the field.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
On the one hand, we have five months of practice, preseason games and 80 carries
On the other, we have five months of practice, preseason games and 18 carries.
Plenty of chances to get hurt -- happens all the time.
BigSteelThrill
Footballguy
buck naked
Footballguy
Why would Turbin be in on 1st down in the 4th quarter of the NFC Championship game? huh That doesn't sound like COP back
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
buck naked
Footballguy
lol Yeah, I know. Let's now return to hearing the same things for another 10 pages like it has been.
EBF
Footballguy
I don't know if that's true. I think part of the skill of FF is looking at an incomplete picture and trying to make an accurate projection of how it's going to fill in. IMO there's enough information out there to get a pretty decent idea of who Michael is. Dynamic run talent with suspect durability. That about sums it up. I don't think there's any great mystery. It seems to me that there are two generic outlooks here though. One group of people who view him as no different than any other random 2nd round backup who hasn't played much and one group who has latched onto some of the combine/training camp/preseason stuff to become more aggressive in their optimism. That's why you see a split in his dynasty value with some people balking at even a RB19 price and some people comfortable paying as high as RB10-RB12. Michael has already been acquired by people from the latter group in most of my leagues, so I'd agree with the sentiment that the buy low moment has mostly come and gone. The best time to get him was in April-May before he made any major waves. Now he's already in the clutches of people who rate him highly in most leagues, so you're going to have to pay more and thus your profit margin is smaller.
There is still a chance for a profit though, especially if you can find an owner who's not sold yet. This thread is living proof that there's still a lot of skepticism out there. That's always the way it goes for unproven young players. It was the same way with LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, and Ray Rice before they really broke out. If you want to be optimistic, that's the kind of outcome you're hoping for. And when a player hits that big, you can "buy high" early in his career and still turn a tidy profit. I think there's a chance that Michael is the best RB talent in this rookie class, so the idea that it's absurd to pay RB2 prices for him while people are spewing RB1 value for guys like Bell and Lacy is a bit amusing. Yes he could flop like Hardesty or Irons, but the upside is apparent as well.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
It isn't confusing at all. Lynch is an animal, and he plays like 80% of the snaps. Turbin knows the offense well and plays the remainder. Seattle is in the Super Bowl without grooming someone. Why is this so hard to follow?
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
I have to agree. I'd actually give Davis situation a D+. Michael gets an F. Given how some value him I have to pass. Way too many what ifs...
Shanahanigans
Footballguy
I think the main concern isn't that he's not producing as a rookie, it's that he has been inactive for all but 3 games this year and doesn't seem to be making any progress. Comparing him to McCoy, Charles, and Rice doesn't make a lot of sense, since they all had significant touches as rookies, started games, and had 94+ touches. McCoy and Charles were both active for all games as rookies, and Rice played in 13 of 16, starting 4. The fact that the Seahawks don't even think he is worth activating as an insurance policy should Lynch or Turbin get hurt should be disconcerting in regard to his dynasty value. Add the fact Michael is an old rookie (23) and I'd be at least a little worried if I owned him.
Mr. Retukes
Footballguy
Lynch actually plays about 70% of the snaps, which is still pretty high. It's worth noting that Turbin only played about 6% of Special Teams snaps, which somewhat debunks the theory that he's only active because he plays special teams.
EBF
Footballguy
That's the common narrative from many of his skeptics. I don't really have anything to add in response that I haven't already said in this thread.
I don't personally put a lot of stock in that take on the situation, but I understand that others do. It'll have to be an "agree to disagree" thing until we actually see what happens. I understand that some people view him as "generic 2nd round backup who can't get on the field as a rookie" and if that happens to be a good take then their skepticism is probably justified. However, many of us view him more along the lines of "hyper talented backup who has everything to become a top 10 dynasty RB besides opportunity" and while you can disagree with that take, you should at least be able to acknowledge that IF that take is correct then it would certainly make sense to look at Michael as a buy low target even now after he's become a little harder to pry away from his owners in some leagues.
It's kind of like how if you could go back in time and look at all the people hyping up Kevan Barlow as the next big thing when he was showing flashes in limited duty, you'd probably have a good laugh. On the other hand, if you could go back and look at all the brake pedals talking down against LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles as the next big thing when they were showing flashes in limited duty, you'd probably have a good laugh at them as well for opposite reasons. There's nothing inherently wrong with investing in a young player provided that you pick the right player. Unfortunately all we have right now are guesses. So people look at the puzzle, draw a conclusion, and then assume that the people who don't see it the same way as them must be wrong. Only time will tell.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
1. Lynch has been just about a average back his entire career in terms of efficiency. That's not much of an animal.2. Sea would be in the Super Bowl with any of these guys at RB more than likely.
3. Denver in in the Super Bowl with Ball getting 100+ touches. Mute point.
I still don't get why they didn't develop some of their young players. Luke Wilson was never used more in the pass game. Turbin could have been another 5-10 touch a game weapon. They didn't NEED to be so reliant on Lynch in general; IMO of course. But with that defense they can do whatever they want I guess. It's not like they'll be in many shootouts. Maybe it bites them in the ### vs Manning.
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Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Not sure why you are refuting a theory that I never raised
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Lynch.....average.......wow.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
Here is where you're wrong. He is great for fantasy football.
DropKick
Footballguy
1. Lynch has been just about a average back his entire career in terms of efficiency. That's not much of an animal.
Truth: Well above average and plays like an animal; never gets hurt; a physical freak
2. Sea would be in the Super Bowl with any of these guys at RB more than likely.
Truth: I don't think they beat the 49ers without Lynch yesterday.
3. Denver in in the Super Bowl with Ball getting 100+ touches. Mute point.
Truth: The word is "moot". Ball's touches should be comparable to Turbin's.... whats the point?
What is so hard to understand that Seattle has a #1 RB and a good complement in Turbin who, at this point in their careers, is more dependable in the passing game?
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RBM
Footballguy
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Much like Lattimore the price for these players does rise now that the 2013 season is over. They are a year closer to competing now. This is part of why they were good players to stash as you knew the value would go up even without these players proving anything this season just because they will become closer to having that opportunity.
Earlier in the thread the contract situation and possible suspension of Lynch in 2014 could lead to Michael getting more playing time next year. So that alone makes his value go up a bit.
Lynch is a good player however, so remains to be seen how long Lynch stays in Seattle.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
RBM
Footballguy
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