Ok. So why exactly do the seahawks have cap trouble for 2014?
Sure, however, they should pretty easily get under the cap without losing any key contributors. They do have a few dead-weight kinda contracts.With barely $1 million in cap space, they don't even have enough cap room to sign their rookies.
http://overthecap.com/calculator/?Team=Seahawks
http://overthecap.com/teamcontract.php?Team=Seahawks
I might be wrong but I thought rookies fell under a different part of salary. So teams that are up against the cap don't have to make room to sign rookies.With barely $1 million in cap space, they don't even have enough cap room to sign their rookies.
http://overthecap.com/calculator/?Team=Seahawks
http://overthecap.com/teamcontract.php?Team=Seahawks
Except it's very real possibility that Rice, Clemons, Miller, and Bryant are all cut. According to your link that adds an extra 25.3 million of 2014 cap space. Those guys comprise huge cap hits going into 2014, are at the end of guaranteed money, and none of them are necessarily key components to the team moving forward.With barely $1 million in cap space, they don't even have enough cap room to sign their rookies.
http://overthecap.com/calculator/?Team=Seahawks
http://overthecap.com/teamcontract.php?Team=Seahawks
I picked up Michael as a throw-in in a recent deal. Not sure what I've got here. Was offered Justin Hunter and a late 2nd for him. Said no, based on, well, not knowing what I have.I think I said early in this thread, you are going to have to be patient with Michael. Cutting Lynch in 2013 wasn't going to happen, and it doesn't seem likely it will happen in 2014 either. Sure there would be some cap savings, but not enough to make it worthwhile for them when Lunch has played so well, and what they are doing as a team is obviously working.
Lynch's cap hit is 7M this year. If he were cut, it would be 3M, so they could save 4M against the cap, but again, I don't see them rocking the boat that much for 4M in savings.
Next year is a different story. If his play falls off a little bit, 2015 could get interesting. His cap hit in 2015 is 9M, and the cap hit is only 1.5M if he's cut (plus there would be a lot of real money savings). That might be a little more tempting for the team. On the other hand, if they have another excellent season and Lynch is still playing well, I could easily see them riding him one more year too.
There is certainly a chance. I think most people are expecting a "camp battle" although I'm not sure that is the way the Seattle coaching staff and front office views it. Hopefully there are a couple of leaks soon so that we can get some insight on what they are thinking... But it will also be interesting to see if Lynch can maintain his level of performance and health after 1002 carries over the last three seasons. There was a story on it the other day, can't remember where or the exact numbers, but it was something like 2 out of 30 RBs with those type of carries were able to sustain that pace for a fourth season. Lynch looks otherworldly with no signs of slowing down but things change quickly in this league.I picked up Michael as a throw-in in a recent deal. Not sure what I've got here. Was offered Justin Hunter and a late 2nd for him. Said no, based on, well, not knowing what I have.I think I said early in this thread, you are going to have to be patient with Michael. Cutting Lynch in 2013 wasn't going to happen, and it doesn't seem likely it will happen in 2014 either. Sure there would be some cap savings, but not enough to make it worthwhile for them when Lunch has played so well, and what they are doing as a team is obviously working.
Lynch's cap hit is 7M this year. If he were cut, it would be 3M, so they could save 4M against the cap, but again, I don't see them rocking the boat that much for 4M in savings.
Next year is a different story. If his play falls off a little bit, 2015 could get interesting. His cap hit in 2015 is 9M, and the cap hit is only 1.5M if he's cut (plus there would be a lot of real money savings). That might be a little more tempting for the team. On the other hand, if they have another excellent season and Lynch is still playing well, I could easily see them riding him one more year too.
Is there any chance Michael ousts Turbin as the COP 'Back in 2014, hence influencing his 2015 prospectus?
You've got to be careful with the 2 out of 30 stuff. It could be significant, or it could not be, just depends on how the stats were laid out.There is certainly a chance. I think most people are expecting a "camp battle" although I'm not sure that is the way the Seattle coaching staff and front office views it. Hopefully there are a couple of leaks soon so that we can get some insight on what they are thinking... But it will also be interesting to see if Lynch can maintain his level of performance and health after 1002 carries over the last three seasons. There was a story on it the other day, can't remember where or the exact numbers, but it was something like 2 out of 30 RBs with those type of carries were able to sustain that pace for a fourth season. Lynch looks otherworldly with no signs of slowing down but things change quickly in this league.I picked up Michael as a throw-in in a recent deal. Not sure what I've got here. Was offered Justin Hunter and a late 2nd for him. Said no, based on, well, not knowing what I have.I think I said early in this thread, you are going to have to be patient with Michael. Cutting Lynch in 2013 wasn't going to happen, and it doesn't seem likely it will happen in 2014 either. Sure there would be some cap savings, but not enough to make it worthwhile for them when Lunch has played so well, and what they are doing as a team is obviously working.
Lynch's cap hit is 7M this year. If he were cut, it would be 3M, so they could save 4M against the cap, but again, I don't see them rocking the boat that much for 4M in savings.
Next year is a different story. If his play falls off a little bit, 2015 could get interesting. His cap hit in 2015 is 9M, and the cap hit is only 1.5M if he's cut (plus there would be a lot of real money savings). That might be a little more tempting for the team. On the other hand, if they have another excellent season and Lynch is still playing well, I could easily see them riding him one more year too.
Is there any chance Michael ousts Turbin as the COP 'Back in 2014, hence influencing his 2015 prospectus?
Sorry, but until you prove it with "true" (or "real/actual") odds, I'm not convinced.I see what you are saying in the post above, but in this case all those carries affect Lynch. Flipping the coin a thousand times doesnt damage the coin.
I realize the 2 out of 30 comment isn't very scientific, but when a guy gets a ton if carries a few heard in a row there has definitely been a downtrend.
Sure, it's just statistics and it's a gamble regardless. But at the same time the data tells a pattern. There is a common perception that running backs are at risk for a sharp decline when they hit their 30s. This is not the case. Statistics show that the fantasy output of RBs have a dramatic and fairly consistent decline after age 26 and the average fantasy points per touch for RBs is at its highest in the first 500 career touches and declines relatively steadily the more touches a player has. Players that have consistently performed at a high level and high volume and are about to turn 27 or 28 are prime candidates for a sharp drop-off in fantasy production. These are the most dangerous players to draft high or to acquire expensively through trades as their market value is that of a sure fire proven commodity that has very little risk built into it since 27 or 28 years is still not considered old by many owners. And the critical thing is of course to identify players before they enter their decline as players that have started their decline have their drop off built into their ADP already. With that being said there was no statistical trend that could project Adrian Peterson's 2012 season so anything can happen - there are plenty of instances where players fall outside of the norm. But the odds are against it.Holy Schneikes said:You've got to be careful with the 2 out of 30 stuff. It could be significant, or it could not be, just depends on how the stats were laid out.Louche said:There is certainly a chance. I think most people are expecting a "camp battle" although I'm not sure that is the way the Seattle coaching staff and front office views it. Hopefully there are a couple of leaks soon so that we can get some insight on what they are thinking... But it will also be interesting to see if Lynch can maintain his level of performance and health after 1002 carries over the last three seasons. There was a story on it the other day, can't remember where or the exact numbers, but it was something like 2 out of 30 RBs with those type of carries were able to sustain that pace for a fourth season. Lynch looks otherworldly with no signs of slowing down but things change quickly in this league.Evil G said:I picked up Michael as a throw-in in a recent deal. Not sure what I've got here. Was offered Justin Hunter and a late 2nd for him. Said no, based on, well, not knowing what I have.I think I said early in this thread, you are going to have to be patient with Michael. Cutting Lynch in 2013 wasn't going to happen, and it doesn't seem likely it will happen in 2014 either. Sure there would be some cap savings, but not enough to make it worthwhile for them when Lunch has played so well, and what they are doing as a team is obviously working.
Lynch's cap hit is 7M this year. If he were cut, it would be 3M, so they could save 4M against the cap, but again, I don't see them rocking the boat that much for 4M in savings.
Next year is a different story. If his play falls off a little bit, 2015 could get interesting. His cap hit in 2015 is 9M, and the cap hit is only 1.5M if he's cut (plus there would be a lot of real money savings). That might be a little more tempting for the team. On the other hand, if they have another excellent season and Lynch is still playing well, I could easily see them riding him one more year too.
Is there any chance Michael ousts Turbin as the COP 'Back in 2014, hence influencing his 2015 prospectus?
The odds of flipping a coin and getting heads 4 times in a row are about 6 in 100. But if you've done it 3 times in a row, your odds of doing it again are STILL 1 in 2. Doing anything 4 times in a row is much less likely than doing it 3 times in a row. But going from the 3rd time to the 4th time may not be that unlikely.
Not that RB carries are going to be a nice even 50/50 coin flip, I'm just saying that some "studies" like that are not very rigorous in their analysis.
The gambler's fallacy works both directions. Just like being "due" gets folks in trouble, so does "It can't happen again".
Lynch is owed $5.5M in new money this year, so if they cut him now they'll save a total of $5.5M against the cap ($4M against the 2014 cap and $1.5M against the 2015 cap). (The numbers that you gave are accurate, but the most relevant number for the team right now is the $5.5M, not the $4M.) That makes it a little bit more tempting for them to cut him, though it still seems unlikely (unless his off-the-field issues finally materialize in a way that has an impact on the field).I think I said early in this thread, you are going to have to be patient with Michael. Cutting Lynch in 2013 wasn't going to happen, and it doesn't seem likely it will happen in 2014 either. Sure there would be some cap savings, but not enough to make it worthwhile for them when Lunch has played so well, and what they are doing as a team is obviously working.
Lynch's cap hit is 7M this year. If he were cut, it would be 3M, so they could save 4M against the cap, but again, I don't see them rocking the boat that much for 4M in savings.
Next year is a different story. If his play falls off a little bit, 2015 could get interesting. His cap hit in 2015 is 9M, and the cap hit is only 1.5M if he's cut (plus there would be a lot of real money savings). That might be a little more tempting for the team. On the other hand, if they have another excellent season and Lynch is still playing well, I could easily see them riding him one more year too.
I would be surprised if the thought even crossed their mind, let alone actually doing it.I'd be surprised if the offense dumped their best player coming off a Super Bowl to save cap space.
I can for the coin, not Lynch's body. Want the equation?........Bamac said:Sorry, but until you prove it with "true" (or "real/actual") odds, I'm not convinced.ghostguy123 said:I see what you are saying in the post above, but in this case all those carries affect Lynch. Flipping the coin a thousand times doesnt damage the coin.
I realize the 2 out of 30 comment isn't very scientific, but when a guy gets a ton of carries a few years in a row there has definitely been a downtrend.![]()
The original point/question was if they could afford to keep players this year. For this year, that 4M is what they would save. The extra 1.5M next year might be on their radar, but I doubt it would be much of a driving factor at this point.Lynch is owed $5.5M in new money this year, so if they cut him now they'll save a total of $5.5M against the cap ($4M against the 2014 cap and $1.5M against the 2015 cap). (The numbers that you gave are accurate, but the most relevant number for the team right now is the $5.5M, not the $4M.) That makes it a little bit more tempting for them to cut him, though it still seems unlikely (unless his off-the-field issues finally materialize in a way that has an impact on the field).I think I said early in this thread, you are going to have to be patient with Michael. Cutting Lynch in 2013 wasn't going to happen, and it doesn't seem likely it will happen in 2014 either. Sure there would be some cap savings, but not enough to make it worthwhile for them when Lunch has played so well, and what they are doing as a team is obviously working.
Lynch's cap hit is 7M this year. If he were cut, it would be 3M, so they could save 4M against the cap, but again, I don't see them rocking the boat that much for 4M in savings.
Next year is a different story. If his play falls off a little bit, 2015 could get interesting. His cap hit in 2015 is 9M, and the cap hit is only 1.5M if he's cut (plus there would be a lot of real money savings). That might be a little more tempting for the team. On the other hand, if they have another excellent season and Lynch is still playing well, I could easily see them riding him one more year too.
Along the same lines power backs that run violently have always seemed to have shorter shelf lives. Lynch falling off the cliff at 28/29 shouldn't really shock anyone - that's not to say that it will happen, just that it would not be totally unexpected.ghostguy123 said:I see what you are saying in the post above, but in this case all those carries affect Lynch. Flipping the coin a thousand times doesnt damage the coin.
I realize the 2 out of 30 comment isn't very scientific, but when a guy gets a ton of carries a few years in a row there has definitely been a downtrend.
I wouldnt be shocked if they havent thought about extending him to a team friendlier option.I would be surprised if the thought even crossed their mind, let alone actually doing it.I'd be surprised if the offense dumped their best player coming off a Super Bowl to save cap space.
Yep. This is the bonus that could come by owning Michael now. It's a binary event but if Lynch is suspended, his value will increase immediately overnight even prior to playing. And there is a real possibility that he could be suspended for some amount of time. I like owning him even without this but there is a chance it happens.I'm not sure if anyone has brought this up in the 21+ pages, but what if Lynch is suspended for 4, 6, or 8 games? His never ending looming court date is suppose to be this spring. If he's found guilty of DUI (as he should be), a suspension is certain. Does this open the door for Michael? It very well could. If Michael plays well in those potential Lynch suspension games, Michael would then earn more playing time......making Lynch expendable in 2015. Saving some cash to sign Wilson, Sherman, Wagner, etc long term seems obvious. I think we see out with the old and in with the new at RB.
The Seattle Times says Christine Michael "looms large" in the Seahawks' future.
Michael was a strict third-stringer as a rookie, appearing in just four games and totaling 18 carries. But as the Times notes, he'll be better positioned to battle Robert Turbin for backup duties in 2014. Michael is already a more explosive and powerful runner, he just needs to polish up his game and gain trust in pass pro. Marshawn Lynch turns 28 years old in April and his contract is up following the 2015 season.
Related: Robert Turbin, Marshawn Lynch
Source: Seattle Times
A good chunk of the stud RBs in fantasy filled this role at some point early in their careers.Over 1,000 replies for a player with 18 career rushing attempts. *shakes head*
The most popular guy on the field is always the backup QB....or 3rd string HB.
3rd string? I'd like to see that listA good chunk of the stud RBs in fantasy filled this role at some point early in their careers.Over 1,000 replies for a player with 18 career rushing attempts. *shakes head*
The most popular guy on the field is always the backup QB....or 3rd string HB.
I know they exist, but that's not a good chunk of the stud rbs as he said. 3 rbs (foster, holmes, green) over the last 15 years shows they're outliers.Off the top of my head...
Ryan Grant, Ahmad Bradshaw, Ahman Green, Priest Holmes, Arian Foster, Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Peyton Hillis, Joique Bell. And I haven't touched the Bronco RBs under Shanahan yet. I'm sure there are more.
They aren't outliers as a percentage of 3rd string RBs who are actually really good players.I know they exist, but that's not a good chunk of the stud rbs as he said. 3 rbs (foster, holmes, green) over the last 15 years shows they're outliers.Off the top of my head...
Ryan Grant, Ahmad Bradshaw, Ahman Green, Priest Holmes, Arian Foster, Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Peyton Hillis, Joique Bell. And I haven't touched the Bronco RBs under Shanahan yet. I'm sure there are more.
Bradshaw and Grant each had a season or two at "stud" level. Hillis had a 5 game strecth and one full season putting up stud type numbers - and Sproles and Thomas have been more than useful players in ppr leagues.I know they exist, but that's not a good chunk of the stud rbs as he said. 3 rbs (foster, holmes, green) over the last 15 years shows they're outliers.Off the top of my head...
Ryan Grant, Ahmad Bradshaw, Ahman Green, Priest Holmes, Arian Foster, Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Peyton Hillis, Joique Bell. And I haven't touched the Bronco RBs under Shanahan yet. I'm sure there are more.
Stud is top 5 at your position for more than 1 season or at least that's my description.Bradshaw and Grant each had a season or two at "stud" level. Hillis had a 5 game strecth and one full season putting up stud type numbers - and Sproles and Thomas have been more than useful players in ppr leagues.I know they exist, but that's not a good chunk of the stud rbs as he said. 3 rbs (foster, holmes, green) over the last 15 years shows they're outliers.Off the top of my head...
Ryan Grant, Ahmad Bradshaw, Ahman Green, Priest Holmes, Arian Foster, Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Peyton Hillis, Joique Bell. And I haven't touched the Bronco RBs under Shanahan yet. I'm sure there are more.
I'm not even caught up in the Michaels hype to the level of some, but he's not a typical 3rd string back. In fact, it was likely that he would have handled the starting RB carries if Lynch went down, with Turbin keeping his 3rd down back role due to his blcoking and receiving abilities.
Steven Davis (Was FB ???)Off the top of my head...
Ryan Grant, Ahmad Bradshaw, Ahman Green, Priest Holmes, Arian Foster, Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Peyton Hillis, Joique Bell. And I haven't touched the Bronco RBs under Shanahan yet. I'm sure there are more.
Retweeted by Sigmund Bloom
RumfordJohnny @RumfordJohnny
He's right RT @MatthewFairburn: Carroll: Christine Michael has the most breakout potential of any Seahawk.
In case it got lost in the unreadable clutter that is Twitter... that's Pete Carroll saying Michael has the most breakout potential of any Seahawk.Twitter:
Retweeted by Sigmund Bloom
RumfordJohnny @RumfordJohnny
He's right RT @MatthewFairburn: Carroll: Christine Michael has the most breakout potential of any Seahawk.
Nah man. He is great. He belongs in the HOF.Nah man, he sucks. He can't even beat out Turbin.
One of these posts is actually an argument being made in this thread. I'll let you figure out which one that is.Nah man. He is great. He belongs in the HOF.Nah man, he sucks. He can't even beat out Turbin.
Now that its clear. What should I do with this new information? Please guide me...One of these posts is actually an argument being made in this thread. I'll let you figure out which one that is.Nah man. He is great. He belongs in the HOF.Nah man, he sucks. He can't even beat out Turbin.
Here you go: https://maps.google.comNow that its clear. What should I do with this new information? Please guide me...One of these posts is actually an argument being made in this thread. I'll let you figure out which one that is.Nah man. He is great. He belongs in the HOF.Nah man, he sucks. He can't even beat out Turbin.
That was actually dead-on correct for his 2013 campaign.Nah man, he sucks. He can't even beat out Turbin.
I don't think this thread needs to beat that dead horse any further, but the above is only correct if you assume that "X plays ahead of Y in a third down back/occasional COOP role" equates to "Y couldn't beat out X." Reminds me of the Madden games, where there is literally a different depth chart for "RB" and "THIRD DOWN RB." If you look at the two different roles as two different positions instead of a hierarchy of one single position, you might reach a different conclusion. There was the recent example of Moreno being "behind" Ronnie Hillman on the depth chart in 2012, only to take over as the primary back when McGahee went down.That was actually dead-on correct for his 2013 campaign.Nah man, he sucks. He can't even beat out Turbin.
Heading in the 2014 slate, its just a small note on the docket.