Looking at it this way, I don't think they've proven significantly more than Michael. They just happened to be fortunate enough to land in situations with no real competition for carries whereas he landed on a team with no real opportunity. I think in their shoes he would've broken more long runs and had a better YPC. Based on what I've seen of him, he's probably the most talented runner of that group. Possibly by a significant margin.
Here's what we know:
1) Lacy/Bell/Stacy all didn't flop, they proved they're 3 down NFL RBs that are above average.
2) Christine Michael just lost a year of production off of his career(which is a negative). What's interesting is that you're all aboard the C. Michael hype train, but don't like to hold onto RB's past age 25/26 if you can help it. Michael is currently 23, birthday is in November. Lynch will most likely be the main guy in 2014 and might be cut after that. Based on a 2015 outlook for Michael, he will be 24 and have a 1-3 year window before his "exit value plummets."
As far as a the Michael hype goes, I don't think the 18 regular season carries are the driving force there. I can't speak for anyone else, but for me it's a projection based on his draft position, the team that drafted him, his workout numbers, some of his college achievements, the eyeball test, the training camp buzz, the preseason performances, and just a tiny sliver based on those regular season carries. There are a lot of arrows pointing in a positive direction and that's what I'm using to color in the mystery of his future.
1) Draft position- last pick of the 2nd round isn't a high draft position. Every NFL team passed on Michael a couple of times and took the Gio/Ball/Bell/Lacy ahead of him...that's a negative.
2) Team that drafted him is a positive? Why? They're prone to drafting all good players?
3) Workout numbers, yes he did well
4) College achievements- his most touches in his career were his true freshman season with 181. Most total yards 934...nothing to write home about as a positive. 5) Eyeball/training camp/preseason are mainly in the eye of the beholder. More TC stories are just hype than reality.
The central point in our disagreement here is Michael himself -- I'm treating him as a generic late 2nd round (NFL) RB and you see him as a stud in waiting.
"Stud in waiting" might be extreme, but yea that pretty much nails it. That is the central difference in the endless Christine Michael thread too. One group of people looks at him as a random backup RB with potential. The other group is more optimistic based on some of the other variables.
How can you be a stud in waiting when CM's entire collegiate/NFL career hasn't seen the stud part surface?
Last year was also the best season of Forte's career by far. Career highs in rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing TDs, receptions, and receiving yards. One way to look at that is that he's peaking right now. The other way to look at that is that he already peaked and that his 2013 isn't a realistic expectation of things to come. I've pretty consistently banged the drum AGAINST buying players after their career year because they usually become overvalued.
You've constantly banged the drum against Matt Forte, which I believe is the strongest fact here. This was Matt Forte's 1st season with an offensive Head Coach and he produced the best numbers in his career. Is the offense going to get worse? I doubt it with everyone more familiar in season 2, Cutler resigned, Marshall/Jeffery/Bennett keeping defenses honest, Forte took over more GL duties as the year went on, OL started 2 rookies who will likely improve in year 2 and the defense will likely be better by default(meaning more 2nd half leads=FF points). I don't know a reason Forte would have a poor season in year 2 with Trestman...he did have 4 of his last 5 games rushing for over 100 yards as well.
Forte(28) who should continue to produce well for at least 2 more seasons vs Michael who will be 24 if he ever gets a starting gig and has never had more than 934 yards in any season since 2009. This debate sounds a lot like the Jstew "potential" ones of the past.