Colin Kaepernick is Overrated in FF (1 Viewer)

[tdmills]

I've seen Kaepernick hyped up into a top 3 dynasty QB and the prices he's been traded for are too high. It seems that many people have distorted perception due to the playoffs.

I only calculated numbers since he became a starter in SF(Monday Night vs Chicago).

7 regular season games:

120/192 62.5% 1608 yards 8.38 YPA 10 TD 3 INT

42 carries 238 yards 5.7 2 TD

3 post season games:

49/80 61.3% 798 yards 9.98 YPA 4 TD 2 INT

25 carries 264 yards 10.6 3 TD

Regular season average per game:

17.1/27/4 62.5% 229.7 yards 1.4 TD .4 INT

6 carries 34 yards 5.7 .3 TD

Post season average per game:

16.3/26.6 61.3% 266 yards 1.3 TD .7 INT

8.3 carries 88 yards 10.6 1 TD

Regular season per game average X 16:

3675 yards 22 TD 6 INT

96 carries 544 yards 5 TD

Post season per game average X 16:

4256 yards 21 TD 11 INT

133 carries 1408 yards 16 TD

Regular season FF PPG=21.5. This would've placed him at QB10

Post season FF PPG=32. This would've placed him at QB1

Reasons why I believe people's view of Kaepernick may be distorted:

#1) Rushing yardage vs GB in divisional playoffs

Two of Kaepernicks top 4 rushing performances came in the playoffs. The big outlier in his performances was against GB: 16 carries 181 yards 2 TD. His best rushing performance of his NFL career in order: 9 carries for 84 yards, 8 carries for 66 yards, 7 carries for 62 yards, 6 carries for 53 yards, 5 carries for 50 yards, 4 carries for 39 yards, 7 carries for 31 yards, 7 carries for 28 yards, 6 carries for 27 yards. As you can see, it looks like rushing for over 100 yards isn't common from his resume and from watching the game, GB looks very out of sorts.

#2) Passing yards per attempt in post season

Regular season yards per attempt: 8.32

Post season yards per attempt: 9.98

That's a significant jump. Why? They trailed in both the Atlanta and Baltimore game, so they played catch up. Were those defenses playing soft, probably. Also, only 1 quarterback was over 8 yards per attempt in 2012, odds are against him from staying at almost 10.

#3) San Fran isn't a passing offense

The 49ers have ranked 31st in league passing attempts both years Harbaugh has been head coach. It doesn't appear that he wants to air it out like GB/NO/etc. For a QB to be consistently near the top of FF, he needs to have a high number of attempts. They run the ball and with a good defense, will likely be winning games so they don't have to play catch-up.

#4) Injuries to running QBs

Most running QBs become injured, see RGIII, Vick, Culpepper, Steve Young, Big Ben, Locker. The only two I can think that haven't: Newton and Tebow have much different builds than Kaepernick. I think Kaepernick plays it smart and gets down/runs out of bounds. I also think that Harbaugh is smart enough to not put Kaepernick in too much danger on designed runs.

As a player, I like Kaepernick. As a coach, I believe in Harbaugh. Can Kaepernick improve? Sure he can. Could defenses figure him out because they have film now? Sure they can. I'm just voicing a concern that people think he can be one of the top guys and I don't think it's likely. It's possible, he can be a low end FF starter however.

 

[Chachi]

Blah blah blah.

All in on Kaep no matter how you manipulate stats, etc;

Buy Buy Buy

 

[Donnybrook]

The 49ers have ranked 31st in league passing attempts both years Harbaugh has been head coach.

This is interesting stat. IMO, it supports the notion that Harbaugh Alex proofed the offense.

 

[higgins]

Blah blah blah. All in on Kaep no matter how you manipulate stats, etc;Buy Buy Buy

I agree with the Chachinator.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Still some upside left and now had a "safe" outlet in Anquan Boldin.

 

[tdmills]

So...you down own Kap and are trying to convince yourself that you don't want him.

I actually do own him in one of my dynasty leagues.

 

[Concept Coop]

But you're taking a 1st year starter and seem to be suggesting his stats won't imporove. I think those investing in Kaepernick are doing so based on potential, which he has plenty of and has flashed.

If he is a legit talent, the team will lean on him more. A lot of great QBs were "bus drivers" to start their careers.

 

[tdmills]

But you're taking a 1st year starter and seem to be suggesting his stats won't imporove. I think those investing in Kaepernick are doing so based on potential, which he has plenty of and has flashed. If he is a legit talent, the team will lean on him more. A lot of great QBs were "bus drivers" to start their careers.

I did say he could improve, it's also possible he regresses. I also said defenses could figure him because of more tape. "Investing based on potential" is risky business, that's all i'm saying. For someone to invest a good amount into a QB expecting more than a low end QB1/high end qb2 isn't a sure thing. Matt Stafford/Matt Ryan were thought to be top end guys, now people are questioning things. But those players have a significant increase in attempts over Kaepernick.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I think if someone wants to give me a top 5 value at the position in a trade, you gotta take that unless you really believe this guy is perennial top3 material and I just think there are too many good-great QBs right now like Rodgers, Luck, RG III, plus folks like Brady and Manning around, the top 10 could be shuffled every year and I'm not sure you can bank on CK cracking the top 5 right now.

 

[SacramentoBob]

Probably one of the worst use of stats to argue a position I've seen in a while. Oh no, he only gets 50-60 yards rushing per game!!

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I'm a bit on the fence on this one. I think Colin is great and he has a great upside. However, I also believe that qb's have an advantage over scouting reports the first year that they play---look at Cam Newton--or even look at Tebow with Denver. Colin basically has played a little over half of a season and has performed very well so far--but I'm not 100% certain that he can sustain it with NFL defenses scouting him. The second year curse hit Cam Newton pretty hard last year-- he wasn't able to change his game to adjust for how NFL defenses adjusted to his game. I do get the vibe that Kaep is a very smart kid with the tools to adjust to whatever defenses throw at him--but I'm not sure if I'd felt comfortable using him over Rodgers, Brees, Brady.etc. I guess what I'm saying is that if I owned him in a dynasty league--I'd happily keep him--but if I didn't own him--I wouldn't give up the house or dismantle my team to acquire him.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

A bit surprising to see so many people dismiss this topic easily. I'm a Kaepernick owner and....frankly have the same concerns as the OP. His statistical performance hasn't been elite so far, other than against a defense that has been shredded in 3 of the past 4 postseasons. (which, coincidentally, is my team of choice)

The type of questions people should be asking:

- is SF likely to throw the ball more going forward?

- is Kaepernick likely to be more effective on a per pass basis, either due to learning curve or addition of weapons on offense?

- how will defenses adjust to the read-option, and how will this impact Kaepernick's ground stats?

- etc

 

[goldenchild]

How about we wait until after he's had a full off-season as the unquestioned starter?

No doubting his NFL talents, but I think the jury is still out on the FF relevance.

 

[Concept Coop]

However, I also believe that qb's have an advantage over scouting reports the first year that they play---look at Cam Newton--or even look at Tebow with Denver.

Neither really prove your point. The Panthers could run the ball in Newton's rookie year, and couldn't his Sophomore season. Defenses didn't do anything differently. Teams had the same blueprint week 8 last seasons as they did week 8 this season. They didn't spend the off-season trying to stop Cam Newton. And the Broncos used Tebow differently. The read option isn't something to figure out, any more than any other play; it's not a gimmick. It's about execution. If your guys block the play, and audible out when needed, you make one defender responsible for two guys. There are entire offenses built on that concept in college. The reason it hasn't been used as much in the NFL is the speed of the defender. Now that the NFL is getting guys more capable of running it, they are running it.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The second year curse hit Cam Newton pretty hard last year-- he wasn't able to change his game to adjust for how NFL defenses adjusted to his game.

Yes, the drop from QB5 to QB6 was pretty rough.

 

[SSOG]

I've seen Kaepernick hyped up into a top 3 dynasty QB and the prices he's been traded for are too high. It seems that many people have distorted perception due to the playoffs.

I only calculated numbers since he became a starter in SF(Monday Night vs Chicago).

7 regular season games:

120/192 62.5% 1608 yards 8.38 YPA 10 TD 3 INT

42 carries 238 yards 5.7 2 TD

3 post season games:

49/80 61.3% 798 yards 9.98 YPA 4 TD 2 INT

25 carries 264 yards 10.6 3 TD

Regular season average per game:

17.1/27/4 62.5% 229.7 yards 1.4 TD .4 INT

6 carries 34 yards 5.7 .3 TD

Post season average per game:

16.3/26.6 61.3% 266 yards 1.3 TD .7 INT

8.3 carries 88 yards 10.6 1 TD

Regular season per game average X 16:

3675 yards 22 TD 6 INT

96 carries 544 yards 5 TD

Post season per game average X 16:

4256 yards 21 TD 11 INT

133 carries 1408 yards 16 TD

Regular season FF PPG=21.5. This would've placed him at QB10

Post season FF PPG=32. This would've placed him at QB1

Reasons why I believe people's view of Kaepernick may be distorted:

#1) Rushing yardage vs GB in divisional playoffs

Two of Kaepernicks top 4 rushing performances came in the playoffs. The big outlier in his performances was against GB: 16 carries 181 yards 2 TD. His best rushing performance of his NFL career in order: 9 carries for 84 yards, 8 carries for 66 yards, 7 carries for 62 yards, 6 carries for 53 yards, 5 carries for 50 yards, 4 carries for 39 yards, 7 carries for 31 yards, 7 carries for 28 yards, 6 carries for 27 yards. As you can see, it looks like rushing for over 100 yards isn't common from his resume and from watching the game, GB looks very out of sorts.

#2) Passing yards per attempt in post season

Regular season yards per attempt: 8.32

Post season yards per attempt: 9.98

That's a significant jump. Why? They trailed in both the Atlanta and Baltimore game, so they played catch up. Were those defenses playing soft, probably. Also, only 1 quarterback was over 8 yards per attempt in 2012, odds are against him from staying at almost 10.

#3) San Fran isn't a passing offense

The 49ers have ranked 31st in league passing attempts both years Harbaugh has been head coach. It doesn't appear that he wants to air it out like GB/NO/etc. For a QB to be consistently near the top of FF, he needs to have a high number of attempts. They run the ball and with a good defense, will likely be winning games so they don't have to play catch-up.

#4) Injuries to running QBs

Most running QBs become injured, see RGIII, Vick, Culpepper, Steve Young, Big Ben, Locker. The only two I can think that haven't: Newton and Tebow have much different builds than Kaepernick. I think Kaepernick plays it smart and gets down/runs out of bounds. I also think that Harbaugh is smart enough to not put Kaepernick in too much danger on designed runs.

As a player, I like Kaepernick. As a coach, I believe in Harbaugh. Can Kaepernick improve? Sure he can. Could defenses figure him out because they have film now? Sure they can. I'm just voicing a concern that people think he can be one of the top guys and I don't think it's likely. It's possible, he can be a low end FF starter however.

I certainly haven't seen anyone hyping him as a top3 dynasty QB. In the DLF February mocks, his ADP was qb6. In the six leagues, he was taken at qb4, 6, 9, 4, 8, and 8. It's possible that SF stays at 31st in pass attempts, but I wouldn't necessarily count on it. Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger both started out in offenses that rarely passed, too. At the end of the day, if your QB is good, you put the ball in his hands more. I wouldn't expect San Fran to crack the top 5 in pass attempts any time soon (and even the top 10 might be a stretch), but if Kaep is as good as his supporters think he is, the attempts will come.

Also, I disagree with a lot of the "injured" running QBs you listed. Young played in 15+ games in 5 of his 7 seasons as a starter before the concussions took over. Culpepper appeared in 80 out of 87 games before destroying his knee. Yes, Steve Young got repeatedly concussed- but so did pocket passer Troy Aikman. Culpepper wrecked his knee, but so did Carson Palmer and Tom Brady. Roeth has appeared in 127 out of 144 games in his career, which is more than Matt Schaub could say (79 out of 96 since joining Houston). Aaron Rodgers has been far more durable than Kurt Warner or Marc Bulger ever were. Vick has held up better than his pocket passer backup, Kevin Kolb. In truth, all QBs get injured, regardless of play style. Other than Favre, nobody is the perfect model of health. Are running QBs more injury prone than their pocket-passing peers? Surprisingly, no- I believe it was Brian Burke or Scott Kascmar who ran the regressions and found basically no correlation between rush attempts and injuries. It turns out the biggest predictor of injury is not rush attempts, but sacks taken (regardless of rush attempts).

Honestly, I think the best way to look at his numbers from last year is to combine the regular season and postseason numbers to give us the biggest possible sample size. That gives us 246 yards, 1.4 TDs, and 0.5 INTs passing and 50.2 yards and 0.5 TDs rushing. Those are pretty elite numbers. Whether he can keep them up over a longer timeline remains to be seen, but it's hard to argue against that kind of upside. His playoff game vs. Green Bay was the second highest scoring fantasy game in history, as far as I can find. Kaepernick has the ability to carry fantasy squads like Vick did in 2010. I'm excited to see if he will live up to that. That's the kind of upside that I wouldn't sell cheaply.

 

[Concept Coop]

Are running QBs more injury prone than their pocket-passing peers? Surprisingly, no- I believe it was Brian Burke or Scott Kascmar who ran the regressions and found basically no correlation between rush attempts and injuries. It turns out the biggest predictor of injury is not rush attempts, but sacks taken (regardless of rush attempts).

I think it is an interesting stat/study, but find it hard to believe, myself. I'd have to see the criteria. I think measuring based on designed, non-QB sneaks would be a better indicator. What QBs like Aaron Rodgers do to account for their carries is very different than a QB running the option read.

 

[saintfool]

weeks 10-17 in my league, he averaged about 20 fpg and that put him at like QB10.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Look at how he started the season last year- and look at what most owners had to pay to get him. Cam lost more fantasy leagues for owners than he won. He had a few monster games where it elevated him to qb6. For every 2-3 duds he had- he'd have one monster game. I'd argue that most owners did better with guys like Matt Ryan than they did with Cam- and they didnt have to overpay for him.

The second year curse hit Cam Newton pretty hard last year-- he wasn't able to change his game to adjust for how NFL defenses adjusted to his game.

Yes, the drop from QB5 to QB6 was pretty rough.

 

[tdmills]

Still some upside left and now had a "safe" outlet in Anquan Boldin.

Boldin is 32 and turns 33 during the season. How much does he really add? Boldin hasn't had a 1000 yard season since 2009 or an 1100 yard season since 2006.I understand he's better than the current WR2, but does he add to the overall #'s or take away from Crab/VD?

 

[tdmills]

I think if someone wants to give me a top 5 value at the position in a trade, you gotta take that unless you really believe this guy is perennial top3 material and I just think there are too many good-great QBs right now like Rodgers, Luck, RG III, plus folks like Brady and Manning around, the top 10 could be shuffled every year and I'm not sure you can bank on CK cracking the top 5 right now.

Exactly my point. Not that Kaepernick is a bad player, just the value isn't in your favor to trade for him.

 

[tdmills]

A bit surprising to see so many people dismiss this topic easily. I'm a Kaepernick owner and....frankly have the same concerns as the OP. His statistical performance hasn't been elite so far, other than against a defense that has been shredded in 3 of the past 4 postseasons. (which, coincidentally, is my team of choice)The type of questions people should be asking:- is SF likely to throw the ball more going forward?- is Kaepernick likely to be more effective on a per pass basis, either due to learning curve or addition of weapons on offense?- how will defenses adjust to the read-option, and how will this impact Kaepernick's ground stats?- etc

Good questions and thanks for generating actual discussion.I would think SF would feel more comfortable throwing the ball in the future. D. Walker is gone and Boldin is in, which leans towards more passing at least in 2013. Gore is wearing down, do they replace him? I don't believe Hunter/James are big enough to withstand a big ground attack.Atlanta didn't let Kaepernick beat them with his feet, have to wonder if that's what NFL teams will do.

 

[tdmills]

How about we wait until after he's had a full off-season as the unquestioned starter?No doubting his NFL talents, but I think the jury is still out on the FF relevance.

FF owners are trading a ton of value for him right now, so why wait?I'm not indicating Kaepernick isn't valuable or could never develop into anything down the line. But the price he's going at right now, is too high.

 

[SSOG]

Are running QBs more injury prone than their pocket-passing peers? Surprisingly, no- I believe it was Brian Burke or Scott Kascmar who ran the regressions and found basically no correlation between rush attempts and injuries. It turns out the biggest predictor of injury is not rush attempts, but sacks taken (regardless of rush attempts).

I think it is an interesting stat/study, but find it hard to believe, myself. I'd have to see the criteria. I think measuring based on designed, non-QB sneaks would be a better indicator. What QBs like Aaron Rodgers do to account for their carries is very different than a QB running the option read.

I went looking for the article I remembered, but couldn't find it. I did find three other articles worth reposting, though:Jason Lisk looks at rush attempts vs. games played. He does find that rushing leads to more missed time (of QBs with 800+ attempts by age 26, high-rush QBs play 36/64 games from ages 27-30, while low-rush QBs play 42/64). Those numbers are so low because 800 attempts by 26 is a low threshold, and there are a lot of Carrs and Frerottes in the data.

Kascmar breaks down all of Griffin, Wilson, and Kaepernick's carries. He notes Kaepernick was particularly adept at avoiding hits by running out of bounds.

Lisk's old look at sacks vs. longevity. No surprise, guys who get sacked a ton have shorter careers.

I'll look again for the original study later this afternoon.

 

[tdmills]

Are running QBs more injury prone than their pocket-passing peers? Surprisingly, no- I believe it was Brian Burke or Scott Kascmar who ran the regressions and found basically no correlation between rush attempts and injuries. It turns out the biggest predictor of injury is not rush attempts, but sacks taken (regardless of rush attempts).

I think it is an interesting stat/study, but find it hard to believe, myself. I'd have to see the criteria. I think measuring based on designed, non-QB sneaks would be a better indicator. What QBs like Aaron Rodgers do to account for their carries is very different than a QB running the option read.

I went looking for the article I remembered, but couldn't find it. I did find three other articles worth reposting, though:Jason Lisk looks at rush attempts vs. games played. He does find that rushing leads to more missed time (of QBs with 800+ attempts by age 26, high-rush QBs play 36/64 games from ages 27-30, while low-rush QBs play 42/64). Those numbers are so low because 800 attempts by 26 is a low threshold, and there are a lot of Carrs and Frerottes in the data.

Kascmar breaks down all of Griffin, Wilson, and Kaepernick's carries. He notes Kaepernick was particularly adept at avoiding hits by running out of bounds.

Lisk's old look at sacks vs. longevity. No surprise, guys who get sacked a ton have shorter careers.

I'll look again for the original study later this afternoon.

Thanks for posting this. Enjoy learning new things and perspectives

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

Sometimes I wonder how many FFers look at historical trends on when a player/position breaks out. I'd say almost every single past/current elite QB begins hitting his stride in year 5. The best years of a typical QB are going to be years 5+. Kaep, Luck, Newton, RGIII, Dalton - all the up-and-comers - are still a few years from realizing their full potential. When I'm evaluating these younger QBs and see the numbers they're putting up in their 1st/2nd seasons, it gives me great hope that these guys WILL be the Brady/Manning/Brees/Rodgers of the future. Heck, look at Ryan - highly touted as a rookie as the next Peyton Manning - took him until this season (his 5th I believe) to finally become consistent. I fully expect Ryan to consistently put up top 5-7 stats for the next 8+ years.

Last week in one of my dynasty leagues, I paid $50 to acquire the rights to restricted free agent, Colin Kaepernick and I would have paid more if necessary. I also have Luck in that league. Having an elite QB is a HUGE advantage in a dynasty league, especially big ones (mine has 16 owners/teams). I plan on using Kaep for the next 2 seasons while letting Luck sit on my taxi squad for that same period of time. I will then be able to pick my poison and decide who to keep and who to trade. Of course, this all assumes that both become elite.

As far as judging Kaep - or any other young QB - it's extremely premature to say his ceiling has been reached. In fact, it's crazy to make that asssumption when history offers the exact opposite data.

Call me a buyer of Kaep along with the other young guys I mentioned.

 

[tdmills]

I've seen Kaepernick hyped up into a top 3 dynasty QB and the prices he's been traded for are too high. It seems that many people have distorted perception due to the playoffs.

I only calculated numbers since he became a starter in SF(Monday Night vs Chicago).

7 regular season games:

120/192 62.5% 1608 yards 8.38 YPA 10 TD 3 INT

42 carries 238 yards 5.7 2 TD

3 post season games:

49/80 61.3% 798 yards 9.98 YPA 4 TD 2 INT

25 carries 264 yards 10.6 3 TD

Regular season average per game:

17.1/27/4 62.5% 229.7 yards 1.4 TD .4 INT

6 carries 34 yards 5.7 .3 TD

Post season average per game:

16.3/26.6 61.3% 266 yards 1.3 TD .7 INT

8.3 carries 88 yards 10.6 1 TD

Regular season per game average X 16:

3675 yards 22 TD 6 INT

96 carries 544 yards 5 TD

Post season per game average X 16:

4256 yards 21 TD 11 INT

133 carries 1408 yards 16 TD

Regular season FF PPG=21.5. This would've placed him at QB10

Post season FF PPG=32. This would've placed him at QB1

Reasons why I believe people's view of Kaepernick may be distorted:

#1) Rushing yardage vs GB in divisional playoffs

Two of Kaepernicks top 4 rushing performances came in the playoffs. The big outlier in his performances was against GB: 16 carries 181 yards 2 TD. His best rushing performance of his NFL career in order: 9 carries for 84 yards, 8 carries for 66 yards, 7 carries for 62 yards, 6 carries for 53 yards, 5 carries for 50 yards, 4 carries for 39 yards, 7 carries for 31 yards, 7 carries for 28 yards, 6 carries for 27 yards. As you can see, it looks like rushing for over 100 yards isn't common from his resume and from watching the game, GB looks very out of sorts.

#2) Passing yards per attempt in post season

Regular season yards per attempt: 8.32

Post season yards per attempt: 9.98

That's a significant jump. Why? They trailed in both the Atlanta and Baltimore game, so they played catch up. Were those defenses playing soft, probably. Also, only 1 quarterback was over 8 yards per attempt in 2012, odds are against him from staying at almost 10.

#3) San Fran isn't a passing offense

The 49ers have ranked 31st in league passing attempts both years Harbaugh has been head coach. It doesn't appear that he wants to air it out like GB/NO/etc. For a QB to be consistently near the top of FF, he needs to have a high number of attempts. They run the ball and with a good defense, will likely be winning games so they don't have to play catch-up.

#4) Injuries to running QBs

Most running QBs become injured, see RGIII, Vick, Culpepper, Steve Young, Big Ben, Locker. The only two I can think that haven't: Newton and Tebow have much different builds than Kaepernick. I think Kaepernick plays it smart and gets down/runs out of bounds. I also think that Harbaugh is smart enough to not put Kaepernick in too much danger on designed runs.

As a player, I like Kaepernick. As a coach, I believe in Harbaugh. Can Kaepernick improve? Sure he can. Could defenses figure him out because they have film now? Sure they can. I'm just voicing a concern that people think he can be one of the top guys and I don't think it's likely. It's possible, he can be a low end FF starter however.

I certainly haven't seen anyone hyping him as a top3 dynasty QB. In the DLF February mocks, his ADP was qb6. In the six leagues, he was taken at qb4, 6, 9, 4, 8, and 8. It's possible that SF stays at 31st in pass attempts, but I wouldn't necessarily count on it. Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger both started out in offenses that rarely passed, too. At the end of the day, if your QB is good, you put the ball in his hands more. I wouldn't expect San Fran to crack the top 5 in pass attempts any time soon (and even the top 10 might be a stretch), but if Kaep is as good as his supporters think he is, the attempts will come.

Honestly, I think the best way to look at his numbers from last year is to combine the regular season and postseason numbers to give us the biggest possible sample size. That gives us 246 yards, 1.4 TDs, and 0.5 INTs passing and 50.2 yards and 0.5 TDs rushing. Those are pretty elite numbers. Whether he can keep them up over a longer timeline remains to be seen, but it's hard to argue against that kind of upside. His playoff game vs. Green Bay was the second highest scoring fantasy game in history, as far as I can find. Kaepernick has the ability to carry fantasy squads like Vick did in 2010. I'm excited to see if he will live up to that. That's the kind of upside that I wouldn't sell cheaply.

I had someone(I respect and is well versed in FF) tell me he believes Kaepernick is top 3. Now if his value is QB6, I still think it's a bit high. If it's in the 8-10 range I can get on board with that.I agree with Brady/Big Ben being on conservative teams to start. However, if Kaepernick turns in a Big Ben career, his owners will suffer.

I guess we'll see which Kaepernick he is, I just don't see a QB consistently putting up those numbers. He could turn in an Aaron Brooks type of career as well. Very volatile player

 

[Concept Coop]

Look at how he started the season last year- and look at what most owners had to pay to get him. Cam lost more fantasy leagues for owners than he won. He had a few monster games where it elevated him to qb6. For every 2-3 duds he had- he'd have one monster game. I'd argue that most owners did better with guys like Matt Ryan than they did with Cam- and they didnt have to overpay for him.

But why was he not conistant to start the season? It is quite a reach to defenses "figured him out". And wrong, in my opinion. I have read a lot of posters claiming that, yet, when asked what defenses did, they can't say.

 

[drummer]

The 49ers have ranked 31st in league passing attempts both years Harbaugh has been head coach.

This is interesting stat. IMO, it supports the notion that Harbaugh Alex proofed the offense.

 

[Chachi]

I've seen Kaepernick hyped up into a top 3 dynasty QB and the prices he's been traded for are too high. It seems that many people have distorted perception due to the playoffs.

I only calculated numbers since he became a starter in SF(Monday Night vs Chicago).

7 regular season games:

120/192 62.5% 1608 yards 8.38 YPA 10 TD 3 INT

42 carries 238 yards 5.7 2 TD

3 post season games:

49/80 61.3% 798 yards 9.98 YPA 4 TD 2 INT

25 carries 264 yards 10.6 3 TD

Regular season average per game:

17.1/27/4 62.5% 229.7 yards 1.4 TD .4 INT

6 carries 34 yards 5.7 .3 TD

Post season average per game:

16.3/26.6 61.3% 266 yards 1.3 TD .7 INT

8.3 carries 88 yards 10.6 1 TD

Regular season per game average X 16:

3675 yards 22 TD 6 INT

96 carries 544 yards 5 TD

Post season per game average X 16:

4256 yards 21 TD 11 INT

133 carries 1408 yards 16 TD

Regular season FF PPG=21.5. This would've placed him at QB10

Post season FF PPG=32. This would've placed him at QB1

Reasons why I believe people's view of Kaepernick may be distorted:

#1) Rushing yardage vs GB in divisional playoffs

Two of Kaepernicks top 4 rushing performances came in the playoffs. The big outlier in his performances was against GB: 16 carries 181 yards 2 TD. His best rushing performance of his NFL career in order: 9 carries for 84 yards, 8 carries for 66 yards, 7 carries for 62 yards, 6 carries for 53 yards, 5 carries for 50 yards, 4 carries for 39 yards, 7 carries for 31 yards, 7 carries for 28 yards, 6 carries for 27 yards. As you can see, it looks like rushing for over 100 yards isn't common from his resume and from watching the game, GB looks very out of sorts.

#2) Passing yards per attempt in post season

Regular season yards per attempt: 8.32

Post season yards per attempt: 9.98

That's a significant jump. Why? They trailed in both the Atlanta and Baltimore game, so they played catch up. Were those defenses playing soft, probably. Also, only 1 quarterback was over 8 yards per attempt in 2012, odds are against him from staying at almost 10.

#3) San Fran isn't a passing offense

The 49ers have ranked 31st in league passing attempts both years Harbaugh has been head coach. It doesn't appear that he wants to air it out like GB/NO/etc. For a QB to be consistently near the top of FF, he needs to have a high number of attempts. They run the ball and with a good defense, will likely be winning games so they don't have to play catch-up.

#4) Injuries to running QBs

Most running QBs become injured, see RGIII, Vick, Culpepper, Steve Young, Big Ben, Locker. The only two I can think that haven't: Newton and Tebow have much different builds than Kaepernick. I think Kaepernick plays it smart and gets down/runs out of bounds. I also think that Harbaugh is smart enough to not put Kaepernick in too much danger on designed runs.

As a player, I like Kaepernick. As a coach, I believe in Harbaugh. Can Kaepernick improve? Sure he can. Could defenses figure him out because they have film now? Sure they can. I'm just voicing a concern that people think he can be one of the top guys and I don't think it's likely. It's possible, he can be a low end FF starter however.

I certainly haven't seen anyone hyping him as a top3 dynasty QB. In the DLF February mocks, his ADP was qb6. In the six leagues, he was taken at qb4, 6, 9, 4, 8, and 8. It's possible that SF stays at 31st in pass attempts, but I wouldn't necessarily count on it. Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger both started out in offenses that rarely passed, too. At the end of the day, if your QB is good, you put the ball in his hands more. I wouldn't expect San Fran to crack the top 5 in pass attempts any time soon (and even the top 10 might be a stretch), but if Kaep is as good as his supporters think he is, the attempts will come.

Honestly, I think the best way to look at his numbers from last year is to combine the regular season and postseason numbers to give us the biggest possible sample size. That gives us 246 yards, 1.4 TDs, and 0.5 INTs passing and 50.2 yards and 0.5 TDs rushing. Those are pretty elite numbers. Whether he can keep them up over a longer timeline remains to be seen, but it's hard to argue against that kind of upside. His playoff game vs. Green Bay was the second highest scoring fantasy game in history, as far as I can find. Kaepernick has the ability to carry fantasy squads like Vick did in 2010. I'm excited to see if he will live up to that. That's the kind of upside that I wouldn't sell cheaply.

I had someone(I respect and is well versed in FF) tell me he believes Kaepernick is top 3. Now if his value is QB6, I still think it's a bit high. If it's in the 8-10 range I can get on board with that.I agree with Brady/Big Ben being on conservative teams to start. However, if Kaepernick turns in a Big Ben career, his owners will suffer.

I guess we'll see which Kaepernick he is, I just don't see a QB consistently putting up those numbers. He could turn in an Aaron Brooks type of career as well. Very volatile player

Did Kaep steal your girlfriend or something?

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Look at how he started the season last year- and look at what most owners had to pay to get him. Cam lost more fantasy leagues for owners than he won. He had a few monster games where it elevated him to qb6. For every 2-3 duds he had- he'd have one monster game. I'd argue that most owners did better with guys like Matt Ryan than they did with Cam- and they didnt have to overpay for him.

But why was he not conistant to start the season? It is quite a reach to defenses "figured him out". And wrong, in my opinion. I have read a lot of posters claiming that, yet, when asked what defenses did, they can't say.

Defenses saw what Cam did in his rookie season and spotted tendencies and weaknesses and adjusted their game plans accordingly. Of course, this resulted in Cam starting off the season in a very slow manner. Once Cam adjusted to the tweeks and adjustments defenses made against him to start the season--he started to put up good numbers again. Elite qbs are elite for this very reason--they are one step ahead--they see a defense and adjust to it instantly. Kaep might very well have the tools to adjust to defenses tweeking and game-planning for him--but to say this is a guarantee is a giant leap of faith. Don't get me wrong--I love Kaeps potential--I'm just being objective to what the original poster is saying. He said that he'd seen massive top 3 value given to a guy who had one hell of a half season. I'm saying that I'd love owning Kaep right now--but I personally would not pay that kind of value to acquire him if I didn't own him.

 

[dickey moe]

Agreed. Avoiding at current prices/ADP.

 

[Warhogs]

I view him as a very risky add at this point due to hie brief amount of starts and the extremely high cost to acquire him. I can't find any dyansty league I would buy him in right now due to the cost with that risk. He may prove to be that valuable but I am avoiding at this time.

 

[ghostguy123]

How about we wait until after he's had a full off-season as the unquestioned starter?No doubting his NFL talents, but I think the jury is still out on the FF relevance.

Anyone waiting to see a full season will simply never be able to own him. In fact if you dont own him NOW, you likely wont ever get to.

 

[Concept Coop]

Defenses saw what Cam did in his rookie season and spotted tendencies and weaknesses and adjusted their game plans accordingly. Of course, this resulted in Cam starting off the season in a very slow manner. Once Cam adjusted to the tweeks and adjustments defenses made against him to start the season--he started to put up good numbers again.

I know it's off topic and that I should drop it. But everyone throws this around and won't support it with anything. I watched most Panther games and it was pretty obvious that once they started running downhill and used less option, the offense turned around. Play action was more effective, the running production picked up, and they started moving the ball. I just think that we someone is going to claim that defenses figure Cam out, they should be able to provide an example.

 

[ghostguy123]

I think the people bringing up all the historical trends and stats and facts all that that jazz are wasting quite a bit of time.

"Historically" guys like RG3, Kaepernick, Newton, and Wilson were worthless.

"Historically" slot WRs weren't very fantasy relevant.

"Historically" TEs weren't nearly as fantasy relevant.

If all you do is go by history how are you ever going to get players like these guys. If you have the "wait and see" approach you are gonna miss out on almost every up and comer.

I am not saying overpay like crazy to get a guy, but the "wait and see" just means you will never own that guy

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Defenses saw what Cam did in his rookie season and spotted tendencies and weaknesses and adjusted their game plans accordingly. Of course, this resulted in Cam starting off the season in a very slow manner. Once Cam adjusted to the tweeks and adjustments defenses made against him to start the season--he started to put up good numbers again.

I know it's off topic and that I should drop it. But everyone throws this around and won't support it with anything. I watched most Panther games and it was pretty obvious that once they started running downhill and used less option, the offense turned around. Play action was more effective, the running production picked up, and they started moving the ball. I just think that we someone is going to claim that defenses figure Cam out, they should be able to provide an example.

Just look at the numbers. Look at Carolina's record. Look at what people were paying for Cam in fantasy leagues in his rookie season versus what he did last year. His total season numbers looked decent--but those are deceiving because a few performances pumped them up. Cam was an ineffective qb for much of the first half of last season--how is that not evidence enough for you?

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I think the people bringing up all the historical trends and stats and facts all that that jazz are wasting quite a bit of time."Historically" guys like RG3, Kaepernick, Newton, and Wilson were worthless."Historically" slot WRs weren't very fantasy relevant. "Historically" TEs weren't nearly as fantasy relevant. If all you do is go by history how are you ever going to get players like these guys. If you have the "wait and see" approach you are gonna miss out on almost every up and comer.I am not saying overpay like crazy to get a guy, but the "wait and see" just means you will never own that guy

Nobody is saying that guys like cam, kaep, wilson are worthless. My point is that the majority of success in fantasy sports is the output you receive versus the price you pay. Generally speaking--it is not a good idea to go after guys when their value is at an absolute maximum--because there is a solid chance that you overpay for their output. My point is that if you are going to pay top 3 value for a guy-- he better be a proven guy. If I'm going to pay top 3 value for a qb--his last name better be rodgers, brady or brees. It's about risk versus reward. You want to build your team around proven guys and sprinkle in some calculated risk. I personally can't justify paying top 3 value for a guy who has had one half of a great season. By no means does that mean that he or those other guys you mention have no value. It just means I will go after them once their prices are more reasonable.

 

[goldenchild]

How about we wait until after he's had a full off-season as the unquestioned starter?No doubting his NFL talents, but I think the jury is still out on the FF relevance.

FF owners are trading a ton of value for him right now, so why wait?I'm not indicating Kaepernick isn't valuable or could never develop into anything down the line. But the price he's going at right now, is too high.

Got it. I wasn't even thinking in terms of off-season ff activity... carry on.

 

[Concept Coop]

Just look at the numbers. Look at Carolina's record. Look at what people were paying for Cam in fantasy leagues in his rookie season versus what he did last year. His total season numbers looked decent--but those are deceiving because a few performances pumped them up. Cam was an ineffective qb for much of the first half of last season--how is that not evidence enough for you?

I think it's an overly simple way of looking at it. I have watched the games and did some research. The Panthers went from first in the league in rushing to one of the worst. They realized they relied too much on the option and fixed it, went back to the traditional running game they used the prior year, and AS SOON as they did, Cam's nubmers started turning around. When you put a young QB in more 3rd and longs, his numbers are going to suffer. When he is in 3rd and 3 and is a threat to run, his passing lanes are going to be much cleaner.If you haven't watched the games, that is fine. But I don't think it's right to claim that he was "figured out", without being able to give an example.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

Just look at the numbers. Look at Carolina's record. Look at what people were paying for Cam in fantasy leagues in his rookie season versus what he did last year. His total season numbers looked decent--but those are deceiving because a few performances pumped them up. Cam was an ineffective qb for much of the first half of last season--how is that not evidence enough for you?

I think it's an overly simple way of looking at it. I have watched the games and did some research. The Panthers went from first in the league in rushing to one of the worst. They realized they relied too much on the option and fixed it, went back to the traditional running game the used the prior year, and AS SOON as they did, Cam's nubmer started turning around. When you put a young QB in more 3rd and longs, his numbers are going to suffer. When he is in 3rd and 3 and is a threat to run, his passing lanes are going to be much cleaner.If you haven't watched the games, that is fine. But I don't think it's right to claim that he was "figured out", without being able to give an example.

So you are saying that it's naive to think that defenses had an effect on how Cam's season started last year. I think it's more naive to think that all of his problems were solely based on what his teams strategies were.

 

[Concept Coop]

So you are saying that it's naive to think that defenses had an effect on how Cam's season started last year. I think it's more naive to think that all of his problems were solely based on what his teams strategies were.

It wasn't just strategy, it was production too. Stewart was hurt, De'Angelo didn't look great, and the offensive line had injuries. That was the major reason for their struggles. Cam was asked to do more and wasn't ready to. Don't get me wrong, he needs to improve and played poorly at times. But that was the major change from 2011 to 2012; the lack of running game. It's is just a tad annoying when people claim that defenses figured Cam out, thus will likely figure out RG3 or Kaepernick. They are no more likely to be "figured out" than Andrew Luck.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Imagine how good Cam would be if Rivera wasn't their coach.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

So you are saying that it's naive to think that defenses had an effect on how Cam's season started last year. I think it's more naive to think that all of his problems were solely based on what his teams strategies were.

It wasn't just strategy, it was production too. Stewart was hurt, De'Angelo didn't look great, and the offensive line had injuries. That was the major reason for their struggles. Cam was asked to do more and wasn't ready to. Don't get me wrong, he needs to improve and played poorly at times. But that was the major change from 2011 to 2012; the lack of running game. It's is just a tad annoying when people claim that defenses figured Cam out, thus will likely figure out RG3 or Kaepernick. They are no more likely to be "figured out" than Andrew Luck.

Andrew luck is likely to be figured out too---every NFL qb is. I'm not picking on Cam--it is the job of NFL defensive scouts and coordinators. Once there is enough game tape on a qb--they sit back and analyze it to death. They apply advanced metrics to spot patterns, tendencies, weaknesses to every qb out there. Sure, perhaps cams circumstances aided in his season not being as strong as expected--but he's not above defensive dynamics either. There is a reason why there are only a handful of elite qbs in football that can see what a defense is doing and instantly respond to it. I personally wouldn't be surprised if russell wilson, rg3, and andrew luck all take a slight step back in production this upcoming season. The fact of the matter is look at things objectively--every year we think the pool of elite qb's is going to grow--phillip rivers looked like he was going to be a fantasy beast a few years ago, then eli manning, and then romo in dallas, stafford from the year before last..etc..but what ends up happening is that year after year--you see the same thing--rodgers, brady and brees are above the rest--and peyton manning if healthy can maybe be put into that level. I think cam, russell, rg3, luck will all be great nfl and fantasy qbs--but the original poster is saying that he's seeing top 3 qb value being assigned to kaep. I wouldn't pay top 3 prices for anybody not named rodgers, brady or brees. Cam might actually be a buy low right now if people are really putting astronomical values on kaep, rg3, luck and wilson.

 

[Tau837]

Are running QBs more injury prone than their pocket-passing peers? Surprisingly, no- I believe it was Brian Burke or Scott Kascmar who ran the regressions and found basically no correlation between rush attempts and injuries. It turns out the biggest predictor of injury is not rush attempts, but sacks taken (regardless of rush attempts).

I think it is an interesting stat/study, but find it hard to believe, myself. I'd have to see the criteria. I think measuring based on designed, non-QB sneaks would be a better indicator. What QBs like Aaron Rodgers do to account for their carries is very different than a QB running the option read.

IMO it has a lot to do with the specific player. As an example, Russell Wilson is really good at getting out of bounds or getting down without taking a big hit. RGIII, not so much. I don't personally put a lot of stock in aggregate numbers on this issue.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Kaep seemed to do really well at avoiding hits last year. The defenses may game plan better vs read option, but these guys can throw so well that it will punish the defense for trying to stop the run. A great throwing qb that is a threat to take off running every play is the hardest thing an NFL defense has ever had to defend.

 

[Ernol]

But you're taking a 1st year starter and seem to be suggesting his stats won't imporove. I think those investing in Kaepernick are doing so based on potential, which he has plenty of and has flashed.

If he is a legit talent, the team will lean on him more. A lot of great QBs were "bus drivers" to start their careers.

I did say he could improve, it's also possible he regresses. I also said defenses could figure him because of more tape. "Investing based on potential" is risky business, that's all i'm saying. For someone to invest a good amount into a QB expecting more than a low end QB1/high end qb2 isn't a sure thing. Matt Stafford/Matt Ryan were thought to be top end guys, now people are questioning things. But those players have a significant increase in attempts over Kaepernick.

They still are top end guys imo, at least Ryan is. Just from a gut call perspective from watching him play, I would also be hesitant to plunk down a big investment in Kaep. I would much rather invest in Russell Wilson at the same price.

 

[Chachi]

I paid the 1.7 in this years draft and a 1st in 2014 for Kaep. I am all good with that. I don't feel like I overpayed. In another league I already own him I was offered the 1.6, 1.7, 2.6, 3.6 and didn't even consider it.

 

[SSOG]

Defenses saw what Cam did in his rookie season and spotted tendencies and weaknesses and adjusted their game plans accordingly. Of course, this resulted in Cam starting off the season in a very slow manner. Once Cam adjusted to the tweeks and adjustments defenses made against him to start the season--he started to put up good numbers again.

I know it's off topic and that I should drop it. But everyone throws this around and won't support it with anything. I watched most Panther games and it was pretty obvious that once they started running downhill and used less option, the offense turned around. Play action was more effective, the running production picked up, and they started moving the ball. I just think that we someone is going to claim that defenses figure Cam out, they should be able to provide an example.

Just look at the numbers. Look at Carolina's record. Look at what people were paying for Cam in fantasy leagues in his rookie season versus what he did last year. His total season numbers looked decent--but those are deceiving because a few performances pumped them up. Cam was an ineffective qb for much of the first half of last season--how is that not evidence enough for you?

If the reason Cam struggled from weeks 1-8 is because defenses figured him out, then what's the explanation for weeks 9-17? Over that span, he was the #1 QB in fantasy football. Did defenses unfigure him out? I think the "defenses figured him out" narrative is too simple to really explain Cam Newton's season last year- you really do have to look at the role his offensive system played, as well as remember that splits sometimes happen for no reason whatsoever- it is the nature of random variation to create plenty of hot and cold streaks due to sheer randomness. Also worth pointing out that even during his cold stretch (weeks 1-8), Newton was 13th in fantasy points and 3rd in YPA. That's a lot better than most players' cold stretches will tend to be.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Love the run+pass QB combo in FF, no matter who it is. Add in a winning team, 56 yard runs, great RB threats to take away the defensive overloading, awesome.

But:

what do people think of the 9ers moving forward? I realize they just keep loading so it looks like the rich are just getting richer but they were 11-4-1 last year. The Rams are improving, the Hawks are improving, do they go down, up or stay the same?