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QB J.J. McCarthy, MIN (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
I am generally leery of prospects that start to rise up draft boards when they haven't taken a snap in months. IIRC, McCarthy was thought of as a second-round pick not that long ago, then maybe a late first round pick, and suddenly now he's under serious consideration as the #3 pick overall? I think McCarthy dramatically benefitted from the team he was on. The defense ranked #1 in the country in fewest points allowed (9.5) and 2nd in yardage allowed. He won't have the luxury of being ahead 4-5 TDs every game in the NFL. They had multiple games with 200+ rushing yards. Michigan won three games last year when J.J. completed 10 or fewer passes. He only threw 4 TDs in his last 7 games. Michigan didn't need much from him to win. The Wolverines could have most of their starting OL drafted in the upcoming days.
I don't know how McCarthy will turn out as a pro, but I didn't see many games where I thought "WOW! That guy's a sure-fire Top 3 draft pick!" Not sure I buy the "he was 27-1 as a starter" narrative much either. UM had great teams the past two seasons. UM won a lot, but IMO, I am not sure they won many games because of McCarthy. I think if he goes to an NFL team with a weak line, weak skill position players, and a mediocre defense, I don't think McCarthy will elevate that team very much.
I don't know how McCarthy will turn out as a pro, but I didn't see many games where I thought "WOW! That guy's a sure-fire Top 3 draft pick!" Not sure I buy the "he was 27-1 as a starter" narrative much either. UM had great teams the past two seasons. UM won a lot, but IMO, I am not sure they won many games because of McCarthy. I think if he goes to an NFL team with a weak line, weak skill position players, and a mediocre defense, I don't think McCarthy will elevate that team very much.
I think most people credible people have always had him as a first. Brugler had him as his around his 20th ranked prospect before the season and did a mock draft almost a year ago, one of those to early mock drafts, came out on May 2nd of 2023, and had McCarthy going 15.
I've broke this down in detail on a previous post that is probably somewhere in this thread and after breaking it down I've come to the conclusion any scout, media or real, that says the team did not rely on him to win is doing a lazy job of scouting.
If he had the luxury of being ahead 4-5 TD's because he helped get them there. His first half pass attempts and production is extremely similar to Maye and Caleb, though a little less on a per game basis . Then they lead all but one game at half and ended up trailing once all season after the half, to Alabama, where he went 17/27 for 3 TD's against a decent defense. The fact he's not airing it out in second half of games they are losing is just not somethign I've ever been able to hold against him.
Putting winning stats on a QB can have pitfalls but when you also combine this with his high school resume, which included championships at two different High Schools and an appearance in the championship game all 3 years it becomes overwhelming difficult to just chalk up as him not having a big part of it all.
His 5 years of college and HS resulted in 3 total losses, one regular season loss, 3 championships, a championship appearance and final 4.
IMO it's just got to a point of people being obtuse if they don't think he was a major part of all that winning.
sheerterror
Footballguy
Couple that with the intangible factor that has truly blown away/won some teams over, which is sitting down and actually speaking with him and seeing the type of character and leadership he possesses. I'm biased given some action I have on his draft position, but I'm blown away that people think this guy doesn't deserve to be in the conversation and is closer to a Zach Wilson type predraft rocket ship, as opposed to someone that looked way better than they realized once they truly had a look under the hood.
massraider
Footballguy
Why would a draft board from months ago be more credible than one with more information behind it?
Chaos34
Footballguy
Some people hate being wrong so much they refuse to change their minds despite evidence they should. On a topic like the draft it's even easier to be stubborn because the potential to be right anyway is always there. So they stick to their misinformed guns.
I don't think JJ has risen in the draft. I think the media had him too low, off the radar, missing from the conversation. NFL teams have known from the get go, from a year ago, that he was a potential franchise QB and graded near the top of this class. Word just wasn't out on him like Caleb and Drake and Jaden, who were Heisman winners and/or media/daftnik darlings.
markrc99
Footballguy
Appreciate the insight, but according to cfbstats.com Drake Maye threw 118 passes playing from behind, McCarthy only threw 27. Of those, guess how many were with Michigan trailing by multiple scores? Not even one, zero. I'll spare you how many of Caleb Williams' passes were in that same situation. I can agree that McCarthy is the product of a pro-style offense but have reservations as to the extent it resembled a professional experience. There was also an article in the Boston Herald a few weeks ago contending McCarthy's "clean-pocket passing grade ranked 26th" and that his average of 2.85-second time in the pocket ranked among the highest in college football. "McCarthy’s average time to throw was 2.64 seconds, which was tied for the fourth-slowest among the [top 16 quarterbacks in the 2024 draft class]. His 4.13-second time to sack was second-slowest, and his 5.26-second time to scramble was fourth-slowest."
I think Anarchy's point questioning how McCarthy will respond with a crap supporting cast is valid, given that he has no idea what that's like. If Washington is still the meat-grinder one of these guys is going to be dumped in, give me the guy who has been subjected to a lot of adversity already. Noticed Minnesota is the odds on favorite to draft McCarthy with the 2nd overall pick. That would that be real sweet!
Boston
Footballguy
On the flipside there is absolutely nothing/zero evidence that says he can't handle it...it is pure speculation he cannot handle adversity especially when he has also played in more high-pressure situations then the others between games with Ohio State, the Big 10 championship games, the playoffs and actually winning a National Title.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
On the Rich Eisen show today J.J. said the team he has spent the most time with is the Giants
That's me I'm not believing he's a top 5 pick until his name comes off the board.
Thanks for the reply but was not sure why you used the word "but" as I was not trying to make any case that McCarthy threw from behind, was trying to make the case that he threw as much and as effectively as Maye and Caleb in the first half, got a lead, then they just ran the ball all day while sitting on a big lead while they had to keep chucking it, usually because they were down a lot. What you are saying is just further illustrating what I'm saying.
His major fault for most people seems to be that he engineered a big lead, rarely trailed, never big, rarely had to keep throwing in the second half to accomplish the main goal, winning.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Comps: Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson
Da Franchise
Footballguy
If anyone wants to spare 17 minutes, this interview showcases all of the off the field stuff his supporters buy into:
m.youtube.com
Personally I think quarterbacking in the NFL is so, so much more than X’s and O’s. I really wish we would draft this guy at 2. I’d rather bet on the person I’m totally sold on. Yes there are some questions, but I got plenty of questions about Maye and Daniels, too.
My final wish list for Washington is:
1- McCarthy
2- Maye
3- RG4
I think they’re all great guys and could succeed. Just feel best about JJ.
Michigan QB JJ McCarthy Talks NFL Draft, Jim Harbaugh & More with Rich Eisen | Full Interview
Michigan QB JJ McCarthy tells Rich Eisen how he was literally born to be an NFL quarterback, why it was a “bitter pill to swallow” at times putting his passi...
m.youtube.com
Personally I think quarterbacking in the NFL is so, so much more than X’s and O’s. I really wish we would draft this guy at 2. I’d rather bet on the person I’m totally sold on. Yes there are some questions, but I got plenty of questions about Maye and Daniels, too.
My final wish list for Washington is:
1- McCarthy
2- Maye
3- RG4
I think they’re all great guys and could succeed. Just feel best about JJ.
Faust
MVP
@uStadium
Rich Eisen asked J.J. McCarthy is he has any idea where he’s going to end up …
“I have somewhat of an Idea, New York, #Giants, I’ve spent the most time with. They’re a phenomenal staff.”
: @RichEisenShow
I'd love the Broncos to get him as long as they don't have to trade up much. If they move to 9 whatever. He seems destined to be a Viking though. I think the Vikes would love to be able to trade up for Drake Maye if the opportunity arose. It's probably not gonna happen. I think one way or another they are getting JJ.
markrc99
Footballguy
I said only that what you added was good information. Part of my comment you ignored, the part you did respond to was meant to support something different. My point wasn't about statistical production. It's other data, but that which was situational. When teams get behind by multiple scores, it's less likely the defense is honoring the ground game. It was coupled with similar type data. That, on avg, McCarthy had as much time to throw as anyone. Although, accordingly he didn't grade out well at all. He doesn't process as quickly, nor does the ball come out as quick.
I strongly disagree that no counterargument has been presented. Now, I do like him. There are a lot of dogs in the NFL, a lot of them play QB & are paid a gawd-awful amount of money. McCarthy measures up very favorably, I just think he'd be much better served landing on a team that emphasizes balance, like the Rams. I don't know about initially, but I think he'd do great in Minnesota too.
skol asylum
Footballguy
Yeah because Cousins was certainly known as a gun slinger.
Certainly way more than this kid has ever shown
Not really if you study the context of his games.
sheerterror
Footballguy
Blows my mind people can't understand that.
I sweated A LOT of his passing yardage unders that were damn near cooked at the half, but were predicated on him hardly throwing or even playing come mid 3q on BECAUSE of him orchestrating those leads, coupled with a monstrous defense. Very lazy analysis when people just point to overall stats or say "oh the run game!"
So it's a lazy analysis to say a guy who was never asked to really perform isn't necessarily a given to be a good player in the NFL? I would argue it's an extremely lazy analysis the other way.
Same hype around trey lance who threw 12 passes in college and low and behold he sucks
Not throwing much and not being asked to do something is not a good thing
Donnybrook
Footballguy
This BS doesn't really help your argument.
Give me a break dude
Dream your little dream. Nobody is trying to change your perfect little opinion
Donnybrook
Footballguy
At least my opinion is not based on outright lies.
Just dreams...your own personal little lies
sheerterror
Footballguy
Never asked to perform? Every time he was asked to perform, his team beat the F out of everybody and he never had to try in the second half. How they got there can be determined on a game by game basis, but hardly by doing "nothing" as many of you insinuate. Nobody said anything about him being "a given." Especially not at 10. Just like NONE of these dudes are. You are being outright dismissive of his chances of being a pro based on stats and nothing else and your comparison to Trey Lance proves that. This kid has lost 3x in his entire football career. He played in the Big 10 and in the CFP against the best teams in the nation and lead one of the most dominant college teams to a national championship. That's comparable to a guy playing 1AA ball who was literally nothing more than an athletic freak? Let's throw the Zach Wilson comps in there while we're at it
Using Lance who had about 300 pass attempts at a small school as an example seems a bit off. Not even close with McCarthy having more than twice as much with every game in a national spotlight.
Maybe on a macro level he didn't have to carry the team, but he did it constantly on 3rd down and was very successful. It's not a huge jump to think he can continue to be successful if asked to do it more often. Especially if his coach doesn't wait for 3rd down when the defense is expecting a throw.
Yeah this is a good question. As an owner of 6th pick in SF and a Maye non-believer I like my options better now. Couldn't have gone to a better place for him. Now if they can just extend Jefferson...
Just randomly noticed in the past week that 3 ex-GM's who now work in media had him ranked as QB2 and/or said they would pick him 2. Mueller, Lombardi and this guy named Belichick.
You can pick apart some of the takes and recent resumes of some of these guys but you can't say they don't know ball. They could be wrong of course, I'm just passing along the info to further illustrate how high some people were on him.
You can pick apart some of the takes and recent resumes of some of these guys but you can't say they don't know ball. They could be wrong of course, I'm just passing along the info to further illustrate how high some people were on him.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
Local guys said while it was always going to be Daniels, JJ was the only real competition. Said Peters really liked him.
And he just buried Kirk lol
skol asylum
Footballguy
I hope you realize that's a fake/troll account.
skol asylum
Footballguy
I think more people should watch this analysis. Obviously the jury is still out but it is for all the rookie QBs.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
I didn’t…why you gotta bring me down???? Lol
skol asylum
Footballguy
That stupid account is constantly coming up in my feed. Should be banned.
Kuz
Footballguy
probably the worst analogy I've seen on this board...
Da Franchise
Footballguy
I’m not usually that dumb lol
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
Kuz
Footballguy
Wow.. Good luck with old guy Nix
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