Thoughts on this after the draft?
I think I'd tier players based on draft order, with tier breaks after Austin (8), Hunter (34), and Bailey (92). Within tiers, shuffle players around based on the categories in
this post, as well as situation and other information that wasn't already accounted for, like drop rate. It looks like Dobson & Goodwin are the only two players with bad college numbers to go in the first 3 rounds - my inclination is to drop Goodwin out of tier 3 but give the benefit of the doubt to Dobson and keep him in that tier, since there are a few factors in Dobson's favor (great offense, late 2nd round pick, low drop rate). From round 4 onwards, the guys to target as fliers are the ones in the top 2 categories in the post I linked, plus the guys who are in great situations.
Here are my rookie WR rankings. Draft order is weighted heavily, with adjustments based on the stuff I posted about here (college performance & combine numbers), situation (good passing offense & availability of major receiving roles), size & like role, reputation, and other stuff (e.g., data on drops). Reasons for thinking about a player differently than a typical WR with the same draft position are noted in parentheses.
8 Tavon Austin St. Louis Rams (high risk due to size)
27 DeAndre Hopkins Houston Texans (very solid profile)
29 Cordarrelle Patterson Minnesota Vikings (high risk, high upside)
34 Justin Hunter Tennessee Titans (high risk, high upside)
79 Markus Wheaton Pittsburgh Steelers (great situation)
74 Terrance Williams Dallas Cowboys (elite college performance, pretty good size, good situation)
41 Robert Woods Buffalo Bills (meh)
59 Aaron Dobson New England Patriots (great offense balances out lousy college performance)
76 Keenan Allen San Diego Chargers (the negatives balance out the hype)
92 Stedman Bailey St. Louis Rams (elite college performance, undersized)
102 Josh Boyce New England Patriots (great offense)
128 Quinton Patton San Francisco 49ers (elite college performance, undersized, lousy situation)
216 Charles Johnson Green Bay Packers (great situation, great athleticism, lots of hype)
und Da'Rick Rogers Buffalo Bills (high upside, character risk)
78 Marquise Goodwin Buffalo Bills (track guy who didn't do much on the football field)
123 Chris Harper Seattle Seahawks (meh)
171 Corey Fuller Detroit Lions (great situation)
144 Kenny Stills New Orleans Saints (great situation)
236 Marquess Wilson Chicago Bears (flashed some talent, skinny, character risk)
238 Aaron Mellette Baltimore Ravens (great situation, small school)
186 Justin Brown Pittsburgh Steelers (great situation)
161 Tavarres King Denver Broncos (good college performance but stuck down the depth chart; move him to the top of this tier if you have huge rosters)
224 Kevin Dorsey Green Bay Packers (if he beats out Charles Johnson, will any of the hype transfer?)
209 Brice Butler Oakland Raiders (wide-open situation)
und T.J. Moe New England Patriots (sorta fits the welker profile)
174 Ryan Swope Arizona Cardinals (bad situation, limited upside)
A lot depends on your league rules and roster sizes, but for me I consider everyone after Charles Johnson to be guys to stash during the offseason (if you have room) and cut when the season starts unless they've shown something by then. The guys ahead of him are probably worth hanging onto for at least a year to see what they can do.