Consensus Projections (1 Viewer)

[BassNBrew]

I'm a little bit disappointed that one of the projectors had Tua listed at 19 pts.  I depend on these being accurate 30 min prior to kickoff.  FBGs needs to boot anyone from the consensus rankings who doesn't breathe, eat, sleep football.  I suspect you could implement some programming where the consensus includes everyone and then defaults to the guys paid to be on top of breaking news in the last hour.

 

[TheWinz]

I'm a little bit disappointed that one of the projectors had Tua listed at 19 pts.  I depend on these being accurate 30 min prior to kickoff.  FBGs needs to boot anyone from the consensus rankings who doesn't breathe, eat, sleep football.  I suspect you could implement some programming where the consensus includes everyone and then defaults to the guys paid to be on top of breaking news in the last hour.

Are you saying you did not know Brissett was the starter and Tua was the emergency backup well before kickoff?  Rotoworld (I guess they are now called NBC Sports Edge) posted this info 2 hours before kickoff.  But yes, I also get annoyed when "so-called experts" do not update their projections the second they know something.

 

[BassNBrew]

Are you saying you did not know Brissett was the starter and Tua was the emergency backup well before kickoff?  Rotoworld (I guess they are now called NBC Sports Edge) posted this info 2 hours before kickoff.  But yes, I also get annoyed when "so-called experts" do not update their projections the second they know something.

I use the consensus projections for DFS expected points per $.  Brissett projections were artificially low because one of the experts had a 0 for Brissett and Tua projected around 18 pts of so as I recall.

I understand that some of these guys can't be available 24/7.  I'm just suggesting algorithm that's automatically drops any expert from the consensus when their projections haven't been updated in the last hour or two before kickoff.  Alternatively, FBG could drop any player projection from the consensus when their projection is x% over or below the other projections.

 

[MrJimiT]

...I understand that some of these guys can't be available 24/7...FBG could drop any player projection from the consensus when their projection is x% over or below the other projections.

Is there a published view of who the contributing FBG Consensus projectors are? Or is it simply the 4 that are displayed?? If it is the latter, the consensus projections don't appear to be a simple "divided by 4" result. That's probably why I just assumed there were other contributors other than the 4 displayed.

I am intrigued by your "regression from the mean" theory about keeping projections within a specific tolerable range. I suppose I could do my own math IF I knew what each of the projection contributors has projected.

(My apologies if this is outlined somewhere on the site and I have missed it.)

 

[Neal Cassady]

Speaking of projections, you should take a peek at Footballguys rest of season IDP projections.  Their linebacker projections have such gems as: 

#7 Khaleke Hudson

#8 Micah Kiser

#9 Rashaan Evans

#20 Shelton Quarles 

the first 3 are at least plausible, but highly unlikely.  However, Shelton Quarles is 50 YEARS OLD AND HASN’T PLAYED SINCE 2006.  That’s some well thought out, up to the minute prognostication. 

 

[Deamon]

I'm a little bit disappointed that one of the projectors had Tua listed at 19 pts.  I depend on these being accurate 30 min prior to kickoff.  FBGs needs to boot anyone from the consensus rankings who doesn't breathe, eat, sleep football.  I suspect you could implement some programming where the consensus includes everyone and then defaults to the guys paid to be on top of breaking news in the last hour.

@Joe Bryant @Sigmund Bloom @Maurile Tremblay@Justin Freeman @Jason Wood

 

[Deamon]

I have often wondered and would love to know how they come up with the consensus.  If it's just the main 4 projectors divided by 4, or if (and who) has more weight when it comes to the consensus. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

I have often wondered and would love to know how they come up with the consensus.  If it's just the main 4 projectors divided by 4, or if (and who) has more weight when it comes to the consensus. 

Thanks. The answer is there isn't an easy answer. It varies depending on several factors which are proprietary. The bottom line is we craft it with the sole purpose of giving what we think is the best projection data possible to our customers. Last night, we had Tagovailoa as QB30 in our consensus. As you noted Jason has been a staunch Tagovailoa supporter (and not a believer in Brissett) and had him as his QB20. But we believe our consensus is our best projection. It's the number we stand behind as the "Footballguys Says" number. I think that's only fair. I don't think it's fair when a site has multiple people projecting and pulls their one projector out as being right when the consensus was different. So our official Footballguys projection is our Consensus. 

 

[Deamon]

Thanks. The answer is there isn't an easy answer. It varies depending on several factors which are proprietary. The bottom line is we craft it with the sole purpose of giving what we think is the best projection data possible to our customers. Last night, we had Tagovailoa as QB30 in our consensus. As you noted Jason has been a staunch Tagovailoa supporter (and not a believer in Brissett) and had him as his QB20. But we believe our consensus is our best projection. It's the number we stand behind as the "Footballguys Says" number. I think that's only fair. I don't think it's fair when a site has multiple people projecting and pulls their one projector out as being right when the consensus was different. So our official Footballguys projection is our Consensus. 

Thanks for the reply.  So are you saying that last night Jason thought so highly of Tua that he knew he wasn't the starter, but still kept his projections as high as Brisette because he assumed Brisette would be pulled for Tua at some point?  As opposed to simply not knowing or not updating his projections?

 

[Joe Bryant]

Thanks for the reply.  So are you saying that last night Jason thought so highly of Tua that he knew he wasn't the starter, but still kept his projections as high as Brisette because he assumed Brisette would be pulled for Tua at some point?  As opposed to simply not knowing or not updating his projections?

I'm not sure and I've asked Jason. I do know he was way more optimistic about Tagovailoa than the other projectors. 

But again, that's part of why we make the Consensus projections the one we call our official numbers. If a projector is way out on a limb, or even makes a mistake on a player, the consensus is a big help. Of course the goal is zero mistakes. And that's absolutely what we strive for. But bottom line, our Consensus projection is our "final say" on these. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

Speaking of projections, you should take a peek at Footballguys rest of season IDP projections.  Their linebacker projections have such gems as: 

#7 Khaleke Hudson

#8 Micah Kiser

#9 Rashaan Evans

#20 Shelton Quarles 

the first 3 are at least plausible, but highly unlikely.  However, Shelton Quarles is 50 YEARS OLD AND HASN’T PLAYED SINCE 2006.  That’s some well thought out, up to the minute prognostication. 

Hi @neal cassady   I don't understand and obviously if we're showing that, something is wildly broken. Can you please post the url address where you're seeing that? 

 

[Joe Bryant]

Hi @neal cassady   I don't understand and obviously if we're showing that, something is wildly broken. Can you please post the url address where you're seeing that? 

Followup there @neal cassady I think our error is with Shaquille Quarterman that has an abbreviated player ID in our database too close to Shelton Quarles. Thank you for the headsup up and apologies for our error. That also highlights an internal issue we have of making sure the older players aren't able to be shown. Our apologies. 

 

[Neal Cassady]

Hi @neal cassady   I don't understand and obviously if we're showing that, something is wildly broken. Can you please post the url address where you're seeing that? 

Not sure how to get you a URL address, but when I go to this weeks rest of season IDP rankings (Sitzmann), and pull up ILB’s, those guys are ranked where I indicated in my original post. 

 

[Neal Cassady]

Followup there @neal cassady I think our error is with Shaquille Quarterman that has an abbreviated player ID in our database too close to Shelton Quarles. Thank you for the headsup up and apologies for our error. That also highlights an internal issue we have of making sure the older players aren't able to be shown. Our apologies. 

But does he really believe Khaleke Hudson is the #7 ILB from here on out?  Guy has 5 tackles this season. Appreciate the response, and know it will all be fixed, but I’m always looking for an IDP edge, seeing how I play in 2 IDP dynasty leagues and start 7 defensive players.  If I believe this Sitzmann guy, Khaleke Hudson needs to be looked in to.  But I don’t think that’s right. 

guys like Ty Summers and Monty Rice are in top 25 as well. 
 

If this is correct, my apologies!  I need to read up on these guys I’ve hardly heard of (except for Shelton Quarles, as I believe he’s director of personnel for the Bucs).

 

[Joe Bryant]

But does he really believe Khaleke Hudson is the #7 ILB from here on out?  Guy has 5 tackles this season. Appreciate the response, and know it will all be fixed, but I’m always looking for an IDP edge, seeing how I play in 2 IDP dynasty leagues and start 7 defensive players.  If I believe this Sitzmann guy, Khaleke Hudson needs to be looked in to.  But I don’t think that’s right. 

guys like Ty Summers and Monty Rice are in top 25 as well. 
 

If this is correct, my apologies!  I need to read up on these guys I’ve hardly heard of (except for Shelton Quarles, as I believe he’s director of personnel for the Bucs).

No I think something is broken for sure. 

Are you looking at this on a computer? The URL address will be in the browser at the top. 

How are you getting to this page? Thanks. And apologies for the trouble. 

And this is an example of something much bigger. If folks see something that's obviously wrong, please let us know by sending an email to help@footballguys.com. We're not perfect and we (obviously) can make a mistake. But that's 1000x better than making a post here  at a ranking where we likely will never see it. Thanks. 

 

[Neal Cassady]

No I think something is broken for sure. 

Are you looking at this on a computer? The URL address will be in the browser at the top. 

How are you getting to this page? Thanks. And apologies for the trouble. 

And this is an example of something much bigger. If folks see something that's obviously wrong, please let us know by sending an email to help@footballguys.com. We're not perfect and we (obviously) can make a mistake. But that's 1000x better than making a post here  at a ranking where we likely will never see it. Thanks. 

On my phone, not computer.  Not laughing at all.  Apologies, and I’ll send an email to that address.  I was seriously taken aback by those rankings, and actually spent 2 minutes looking at Hudson’s highlights, trying to figure out who he was.  
 

 

[Joe Bryant]

On my phone, not computer.  Not laughing at all.  Apologies, and I’ll send an email to that address.  I was seriously taken aback by those rankings, and actually spent 2 minutes looking at Hudson’s highlights, trying to figure out who he was.  
 

Thanks. If you can send an email to that help@footballguys.com email they'll ask you for some questions that will help us see what you're seeing and get it right. Thanks. 

 

[UFFLCommish]

Hi Joe. Marcus Maye is the #16 ranked DB this week and he's on IR. This has been happening a lot and I posted this concern in the IDP forum with no response.

 

[BassNBrew]

Thanks. The answer is there isn't an easy answer. It varies depending on several factors which are proprietary. The bottom line is we craft it with the sole purpose of giving what we think is the best projection data possible to our customers. Last night, we had Tagovailoa as QB30 in our consensus. As you noted Jason has been a staunch Tagovailoa supporter (and not a believer in Brissett) and had him as his QB20. But we believe our consensus is our best projection. It's the number we stand behind as the "Footballguys Says" number. I think that's only fair. I don't think it's fair when a site has multiple people projecting and pulls their one projector out as being right when the consensus was different. So our official Footballguys projection is our Consensus. 

FYI...Now Wood is showing Tagovailoa with a 0.0 projection.

This topic is not about beating up on anyone and you'll note I never mentioned the projector's name because it was immaterial to the topic.  What I'm suggesting is putting a safety net in place such that when Dalvin Cook is a scratch that the Mattison projections don't get pulled down because one or two of the consensus projectors is busy doing something else.  When I'm building a dfs lineup a 4 point shift in the projection isn't acceptable.

 

[Joe Bryant]

FYI...Now Wood is showing Tagovailoa with a 0.0 projection.

This topic is not about beating up on anyone and you'll note I never mentioned the projector's name because it was immaterial to the topic.  What I'm suggesting is putting a safety net in place such that when Dalvin Cook is a scratch that the Mattison projections don't get pulled down because one or two of the consensus projectors is busy doing something else.  When I'm building a dfs lineup a 4 point shift in the projection isn't acceptable.

Thanks. Nobody thinks this is about beating anyone up. I think I fully hear what folks are saying and I hope it's clear we appreciate the feedback. We listened to this feedback last year and implemented a system similar to what you're saying where we can instantly "zero" all projections for a player. Sort of a "master override". We use it every week when news comes out (like Chris Carson yesterday) or especially on Sunday morning when inactives are declared. We didn't use it for Tagovailoa as he was available to play but likely we should have.

Bottom line is giving our customers the best info we can has always been our main goal. And our Consensus projections will be our "Final Say" for what we do there. Thanks for the insights and we'll continue to try and polish our processes and offerings. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

Hi Joe. Marcus Maye is the #16 ranked DB this week and he's on IR. This has been happening a lot and I posted this concern in the IDP forum with no response.

Hi @UFFLCommish I"m sorry but I don't understand. What is the url link where you're seeing that? Here are our Week 10 DB rankings;

https://www.footballguys.com/projections/inseason?pos=db&who=996&profile=p&week=10

We covered Maye missing the rest of the season here. https://www.footballguys.com/players/player-all-info.php?id=MayeMa99

Can you please let me know the url link where you're seeing him ranked?

And PLEASE, if you folks see something that is wrong, email help@footballguys.com and let them know. That's 1000x more effective than hoping I happen to see a post that is one of thousands posted on the forum. 

 

[BassNBrew]

Thanks. Nobody thinks this is about beating anyone up. I think I fully hear what folks are saying and I hope it's clear we appreciate the feedback. We listened to this feedback last year and implemented a system similar to what you're saying where we can instantly "zero" all projections for a player. Sort of a "master override". We use it every week when news comes out (like Chris Carson yesterday) or especially on Sunday morning when inactives are declared. We didn't use it for Tagovailoa as he was available to play but likely we should have.

Bottom line is giving our customers the best info we can has always been our main goal. And our Consensus projections will be our "Final Say" for what we do there. Thanks for the insights and we'll continue to try and polish our processes and offerings. 

That's great to hear.

My follow up question (which was the genesis of the thread) is how do you instantly "un-zero" a player?  Let's say Carson news comes out an hour before game time.  Some of your projectors move Collins from 3 points to 11 points, but half don't.  Collins is now sitting at 7 points in the consensus projections.

I see you mentioned proprietary above so maybe the 7 point projection doesn't happen.  Regardless, even being two points off is crippling is you are trying to build small slate dfs lineups.  I did notice the other night when building dfs lineups that most of the experts had Brissett projected much higher than the consensus.  I don't want to have to do that deep dive and want to rely on the consensus as the final say.  I would think that if a projector has a player at some threshold less than the several other projectors, their projection should not be included in the consensus.

 

[Joe Bryant]

That's great to hear.

My follow up question (which was the genesis of the thread) is how do you instantly "un-zero" a player?  Let's say Carson news comes out an hour before game time.  Some of your projectors move Collins from 3 points to 11 points, but half don't.  Collins is now sitting at 7 points in the consensus projections.

I see you mentioned proprietary above so maybe the 7 point projection doesn't happen.  Regardless, even being two points off is crippling is you are trying to build small slate dfs lineups.  I did notice the other night when building dfs lineups that most of the experts had Brissett projected much higher than the consensus.  I don't want to have to do that deep dive and want to rely on the consensus as the final say.  I would think that if a projector has a player at some threshold less than the several other projectors, their projection should not be included in the consensus.

The "unzero" is the next improvement. Currently, that's still done manually. Obviously, this is one of those situations that doens't work the same both ways. It's relatively straighforward to zero out a player that's declared inactive. Much more difficult and skill demanding to up the stats for the players we think should see more work as the gamescript and personnel change. As always, we'll keep working hard at it. 

 

[UFFLCommish]

In-Season Player Projections (https://www.footballguys.com/projections/inseason?pos=)

His projections have been removed now. I made the post 14 hours ago which had showed him as the #16 ranked consensus DB for about two days.

I'm not going to email every time I see a player ranked or with projections listed as Out or on IR. There are just too many instances and I don't have the time.

I'd hope that there would be a mechanism to remove these players and projectors would then adjust their projections for other players affected. Projections are usually adjusted eventually but it takes longer than I think for a site like FBG which strives to be the best in the industry. 

Just my 2 cents.

 

[Joe Bryant]

In-Season Player Projections (https://www.footballguys.com/projections/inseason?pos=)

His projections have been removed now. I made the post 14 hours ago which had showed him as the #16 ranked consensus DB for about two days.

I'm not going to email every time I see a player ranked or with projections listed as Out or on IR. There are just too many instances and I don't have the time.

I'd hope that there would be a mechanism to remove these players and projectors would then adjust their projections for other players affected. Projections are usually adjusted eventually but it takes longer than I think for a site like FBG which strives to be the best in the industry. 

Just my 2 cents.

Thanks. Not sure why he was showing up for you. But glad to know it's all good for you know. Of course, it's our responsibility to have all this right. 100%. My only point on emailing was posting something that becomes one of thens of thousands posts that day on our forums that are super busy won't get attention nearly as quickly as an email to help@footballguys.com. If you are able to let us know of an error, that's by far the preferable way to let us know so we can fix it quickly. Thanks. 

 

[UFFLCommish]

Maybe a pinned post where members can point out discrepancies/errors in the projections.

For example, Jason Wood has Chase Claypool projected for 10 fantasy points.

His projections were updated on 8/13 and Claypool was ruled out on 8/12 (afternoon).

 

[Joe Bryant]

Maybe a pinned post where members can point out discrepancies/errors in the projections.

For example, Jason Wood has Chase Claypool projected for 10 fantasy points.

His projections were updated on 8/13 and Claypool was ruled out on 8/12 (afternoon).

Claypool is current now. 

A thread would be great. We always want to be able to see if we have a player projection out of line. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

Another good example will be Julio Jones. We'll have him zeroed out as we update tonight.