Crabtree going forward? (1 Viewer)

[Luke Skywalker]

Have the chance to acquire Crabtree for what seems like a pretty good deal. I don't get to watch a lot of Niners games but the guy is obviously talented.

What do homers think of Crabtree? Furthermore what are the chances that Alex Smith's season is more a sign of things to come than a lucky hot streak?

 

[J Giles Band]

Bought in two weeks ago. He appears as healthy as he's been in two years and easily leads the Niners in targets despite missing games early in the year. Braylon Edwards or not, he is locked in as the Niners #1 WR.

Wouldn't get too crazy here as their conservative offense limits his upside, but think barring re-injury he is a safe WR3 going forward with WR2 upside. Especially in PPR.

 

[solorca]

I have benched him most weeks because of some depth at WR, but I love the guys prospects for the remainder of the year. He seems to be rock solid to get you 10-15 points in PPR, and more if he picks up a TD. As a WR3, I don't think you can do much better.

I'm not a homer, but I try to watch all of the game replays, and I've been really impressed with his route running and blocking...both things that continue to get you more targets as a receiver.

 

[packersfan]

I grabbed him off the WW a few weeks ago too and been happy with the production. As noted above, his upside is capped by Smith's limitations at QB and the 49ers' conservative approach but he's getting plenty of short and intermediate passes which makes him a strong WR3 in PPR leagues. I think he needs to get on a TD run to become anything more and I'm skeptical that will occur but I think he's a pretty safe bet for 10 points per week at least in PPR leagues.

One good thing is the Niners keep trying to hit him for big plays downfield. So far Smith has missed on all but one but if they continue that approach and Smith can hit him for a few that will boost his fantasy value. I like the fact that in addition to the short routes they are trying to work Crabtree deep too.

 

[Thumper]

Solid #3 WR with #2 potential if he could score a few more td's.

 

[xfactor99]

Niner homer here. People here pretty much have it right on...now that Josh(ua) Morgan is out for the year, Edwards isnt 100%, and VD has been relegated to a blocking role Crabtree is clearly the Niners #1 option. I would say for this year high bottom, low upside. Harbaugh plays a very run-oriented offense, more so than even Jimmy Raye. I wouldn't be surprised if Smith doesn't throw 40 passes in a game the entire year. Even so Crabtree has gotten roughly 30 targets in the past 3 games, which means he's going to get the catches. However, he has relatively low upside because 1) Niners don't pass the ball a lot 2) Most of his catches are 5 yard out routes or hitches 3) The Niners are great at pounding the ball in the red zone. Like packersfan said Smith has been taking one or two shots with Crabtree downfield a game but most of his routes are underneath. Solid WR3 but don't expect many 20+ point games.

 

[Luke Skywalker]

Niner homer here. People here pretty much have it right on...now that Josh(ua) Morgan is out for the year, Edwards isnt 100%, and VD has been relegated to a blocking role Crabtree is clearly the Niners #1 option. I would say for this year high bottom, low upside. Harbaugh plays a very run-oriented offense, more so than even Jimmy Raye. I wouldn't be surprised if Smith doesn't throw 40 passes in a game the entire year. Even so Crabtree has gotten roughly 30 targets in the past 3 games, which means he's going to get the catches. However, he has relatively low upside because 1) Niners don't pass the ball a lot 2) Most of his catches are 5 yard out routes or hitches 3) The Niners are great at pounding the ball in the red zone. Like packersfan said Smith has been taking one or two shots with Crabtree downfield a game but most of his routes are underneath. Solid WR3 but don't expect many 20+ point games.

That's about all I can hope for. It seems like he's pretty consistently having 5-catch, 50-yard type games which is definitely worth starting in a deep PPR league.

 

[phillybirds]

I grabbed him off the WW a few weeks ago too and been happy with the production. As noted above, his upside is capped by Smith's limitations at QB and the 49ers' conservative approach but he's getting plenty of short and intermediate passes which makes him a strong WR3 in PPR leagues. I think he needs to get on a TD run to become anything more and I'm skeptical that will occur but I think he's a pretty safe bet for 10 points per week at least in PPR leagues.One good thing is the Niners keep trying to hit him for big plays downfield. So far Smith has missed on all but one but if they continue that approach and Smith can hit him for a few that will boost his fantasy value. I like the fact that in addition to the short routes they are trying to work Crabtree deep too.

Same here. I re-rostered him in a PPR league about a month ago and started him at flex in 3 games to get me through bye weeks and injuries. Very happy with the numbers and that no one else picked him up. The next 5 weeks the 49er's play the Rams and play the Cardinals twice. With the number of targets he's getting, there is the possibility of a couple of breakout games.

 

[Tony Reali]

Niner homer here. People here pretty much have it right on...now that Josh(ua) Morgan is out for the year, Edwards isnt 100%, and VD has been relegated to a blocking role Crabtree is clearly the Niners #1 option. I would say for this year high bottom, low upside. Harbaugh plays a very run-oriented offense, more so than even Jimmy Raye. I wouldn't be surprised if Smith doesn't throw 40 passes in a game the entire year. Even so Crabtree has gotten roughly 30 targets in the past 3 games, which means he's going to get the catches. However, he has relatively low upside because 1) Niners don't pass the ball a lot 2) Most of his catches are 5 yard out routes or hitches 3) The Niners are great at pounding the ball in the red zone. Like packersfan said Smith has been taking one or two shots with Crabtree downfield a game but most of his routes are underneath. Solid WR3 but don't expect many 20+ point games.

Hit the nail on the head (49er homer too)The fact is, Alex Smith will not air the ball out much. The only way you'll get a big play is if there is a defensive breakdown. The best you can expect is probably 5 catches, 50 yards, with a touchdown thrown in maybe every other game. Yes, I recognize that is a decent line, which is why I would expect him to be a WR3 with low WR2 upside.

 

[Topes]

I pretty much agree with the consensus here.

DISCLAIMER: Start 2 WR League!

Personally, I have him on my bench, and am dropping him this week, trying to get somebody with more upside.

(Jacoby Ford, Laurent Robinson, Denarius Moore, Eric Decker)

I realize there's downside risk with all those pickups.

I also realize most of those players aren't on most folks' wires.

For me, the logic is this: Crabtree is using a roster spot that isn't likely to start for me, unless:

1) Rash of injuries to starters

2) Bench player excels

So, the roster spot is reserved for upside for me. I don't see a lot of upside for Crabtree. Maybe one game upside, but not bench-player-becomes-starter upside.

In a few weeks, my waiver wire closes for the playoffs. At that juncture, that roster spot may become useful for something else.

I don't envision starting Crabtree in my playoffs, as it's a start-2 league. I have better options, and I hope those guys stay healthy.

All that said, were I in a start-3 league, I think Crabtree makes an excellent anchor WR3 for fantasy.

 

[J Giles Band]

Would rather have Crabtree than any of the above.

Laurent Robinson has more upside for the next 3-4 weeks but not when Austin returns which should be in time for the fantasy playoffs.

Jacoby Ford is interesting, but his floor is too low for me to play him ahead of Crabtree. As of right now at least.

 

[haterade]

Tell me more about these shots downfield to crabtree... I haven't seen them. How many? Bad throws?

With as many targets as he gets, if he's getting deep looks he might be on the verge of a breakout game.

 

[Luke Skywalker]

Guy is becoming a must-start in PPR, 3 WR leagues. 4/96 and a score today.

 

[packersfan]

Tell me more about these shots downfield to crabtree... I haven't seen them. How many? Bad throws?

Until today yup. Smith finally threw a great deep ball and Crabtree scored. Crabtree has quietly been a pretty nice Waiver Wire pickup in a lot of leagues.

 

[solorca]

I've only started him once or twice this season, but he's a great guy to have at the end of your bench, or in a WR3/Flex spot. In a PPR, he's pretty much a lock to get you 10-15 points.

Edit: Just noticed that I pretty much said the same thing a month ago in this thread. Oh well, I guess I stand by my opinion