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This is pretty much what I thought as well. Look most teams aren't even going to pass him on a physical because of his 5 knee surgeries. If someone else does sign him to an offer sheet, I suspect there will be virtually no guaranteed money or have substantial injury protection clauses. Either way the Chargers get another team to negotiate a contract for them and match a likely "value" offer. Or they can keep DA for a very cheap amount on the low tender. I mean honestly there's a reason this guy was on the street when the Chargers grabbed him - No one believes he will stay on the field. If another team signs him to a big offer sheet, well then they can deal with the knee injuries that will surely follow.'johnnyrock62000 said:
Different front office but the team just got burned by Gaither in a very similar situation. Difference is we saw what the team had behind Gaither if he wasn't on the field so signing him was a much bigger priority for AJ. The SD receiver situation isn't nearly as pressing as the OL despite what you may hear from fantasy experts. If someone does step up and overpay Alexander they could pursue a guy like Nate Washington for very little compensation as there have been reports TEN is shopping him. People don't seem to be lining up to overpay WR's like they did last spring.
His legs are a giant risk.'johnnyrock62000 said:
I think he means little financial investment. Of course his legs are a huge variable.
True, but I can see someone offering that low tender based on what he did last year...
Exactly, it's well worth the risk IMO. And it seems like SD doesn't value him too highly either.
Fisher valued Blount but waived him to try to stash him on the practice squad. I think SD likes him but are hoping their low tender and his injury history will get him back to them on the cheap. Liking someone and being able to get him cheap are not contradictory...
Why not? Top 6 in the 2nd half of the season last year in my league. Not much has changed. He's still the best they have unless he goes down again. The risk is there if you are counting on him as your #1, but he could easily put up #1 numbers, and as a #2 he could really help you.
Pretty much how I'm looking at it. Hoping for consistent WR2 numbers, but with the potential for more any given week.
He's a totally different WR than Alexander and Floyd. It's possible Allen takes targets away from Alexander/Floyd, but it's also possible Allen's presence opens up space for Alexander/Floyd to make big plays down the field, so at this point I don't think the Keenan Allen selection is reason for anyone to change their opinion on Alexander/Floyd.
Between 10 and 20 probably. He was top 6 second half of the year last year and very little changed.
I think in the 30's is about right. He did very well at the end of last season obviously, but it still seems unlikely he'll be able to stay healthy. It's a bit telling that no one seriously went after him when they could have had him pretty cheaply.
Very little has changed?
Same QB who absolutely zoned in on the guy down the stretch.
I don't disagree that he has a lot of potential. My only argument is that quite a bit has changed in that scenario. It is quite possible that he could follow-up this year with exactly what he did at the end of last year, but it will not because everything is the same in SD.
Plus, Vincent Brown missed all of Alexander's games, and Malcom Floyd missed two of them. Both should be back, though it is typical for Floyd to miss a few games.
I personally like Alexander.If his body holds up I think rivers will continue to lock on to him. However, the same line of thought you posted applies to Alexander. The NFL doesn't seem to think much of him based on free agency.
All this is true, though Alexander played very well for a stretch with Rivers, something VBrown/Allen haven't showed that yet. Doesn't mean Alexander will be the guy, but I don't see him going away as what he and Rivers were very productive together, it'll probably come down to health.
Sure, but that's why his fantasy value is lower as well. People aren't questioning his talent, just his health and some unknowns about how things may change with a new coaching staff and WR.
I absolutely agree. The difference is that the OC and HC are new, but the QB is the same and he locked in on Danario. If the guy is healthy, he's a monster....
Good analysis, and agree with the conclusion as well.
If that guy is healthy all season, those numbers are low....Mr. Irrelevant said:
I like Alexander and happen to own him, but I have to point out that a few of these perceptions just aren't accurate. Rivers wasn't "locked in" on him, and he wasn't a "red zone monster" (someone else said that). He was no where near the league leaders in targets or receptions (per game). He was super productive with his receptions and a big play "monster".TheFanatic said:
Brees-Colston connection longer, maybe? ... I'm too lazy to look it up.Maurile Tremblay said:
He nearly had those numbers in half a season last year. You really see his production dropping off by 50%?Maurile Tremblay said:
So you're saying that without being a red zone monster and not getting a ton of looks from Rivers, he was was the #6 WR. You say that like it's a bad thing. What that says to me is that this guy does way more than he should with way less than most. That says the guy is insanely talented.
How on earth can you read my post and think I'm saying that like it's a bad thing?
Let's look at that reality for a bit, shall we? So DX signed with the Chargers during their week 7 bye week. He was in the game week 8 but didn't get a catch. The guy didn't play or practice with any NFL team for six weeks of the season or much of training camp, and had to learn a new offense in two weeks, so this is understandable.
Again, I'll deal in reality- I didn't claim that Rivers wasn't locked in on him because he didn't lead the league in targets or receptions, I said he was no where near the league leaders.
I doubt it. And in terms of this thread, Alexander averaged 17+ ypc last year. I doubt he and Danny are vieing for the same balls...
Wow, just wow!
I'm going to assume this is schtick. Is your definition of "locked in" that he led the team in receptions?
Alexander put up big numbers in weeks 10-17 last season. During those eight weeks, the other receivers were either Floyd, Royal, and Meachm (two weeks), Floyd, Meachem, and Ajirotutu (two weeks), Floyd, Meachem, and Spurlock (two weeks), or Royal, Meachem and Spurlock (two weeks). I think each of those scenarios is very different from sharing the field with Vincent Brown, Malcom Floyd, and Keenan Allen. Alexander will go from being the clear #1 WR in an offense that had only one or two competent wide receivers at a time, to being more like the #1A (if Vincent Brown lives up to the expectations of some) in an offense that has four competent wide receivers (if Allen is as NFL-ready as some expect). In other words, the WR production could be a lot less top-heavy in 2013, a lot more evenly spread out, than it was in the second half of 2012. I'm not saying he doesn't have great upside. He's a risky pick because a lot could go wrong with him. But he's also a very high-upside pick because a lot can go wrong with Brown, Floyd, and Allen as well, and there's a chance that 2013 will look much like the second half of 2012. On the whole, though, if you average all the possibilities together, to me he's a fantasy WR4 right now. (Things can always change during camp and preseason.)
