For the past 5 years LT has been performing at a uber-elite level only matched by (slightly exceeeded by) a select few other players who have also performed at a uber-elite level. Priest Holmes/Larry Johnson Tiki Barber and Shawn Alexander.
*BUT*, here's the rub- every year except for last year, there have been several other players who were shoulder-to-shoulder with LT. I think it's reasonable to expect the exact same this season. For instance, I don't think LT is going to finish as far ahead of SJax as the career averages would lead you to believe. I'd rather get two RBs who had a strong possibility of finishing shoulder-to-shoulder with LT than one RB who is more likely to finish in that elite tier. I mean, imagine if you traded LT a couple of years ago for LJ+ (as in LJ plus Marvin Harrison or Steve Smith or whatever).Again, people keep talking as if LT is going to be head and shoulders above his peers, when historically speaking, that's an absurd thing to expect- it's far more likely that LT will be shoulder to shoulder with several other RBs at the end of the year.
Also, if you're talking Dynasty, LT is getting older, and has been heavily worked. Even if he outscores a Frank Gore or Steven Jackson by 50 points a season over the next three years, his injury risk over that time is likely to be higher (thanks to his age and his overuse), and his trade value at the end of that time is likely to be astronomically lower, meaning a Gore or an SJax would make up the value on the back end.
In an initial dynasty draft, I'd almost prefer Steven Jackson to LaDanian Tomlinson, just because of the age/workload factor (and because I think SJax is going to be in that uber "shoulder-to-shoulder" tier with Tomlinson). Granted, I'd still take Tomlinson #1 overall, mostly because his trade value right now is higher- I could draft Tomlinson and then trade him to the SJax owner for SJax PLUS. If I could draft Tomlinson and trade him for SJax + Evans, I would do that *IN A HEARTBEAT*.
hmmmWell RB scoring has been higher for the uber-elite players over the past 5 years than it has ever been before. Thus the record setting years by Priest and Alexander followed by LT last year. Emmitt would not have finished as high competing with those record setting TD numbers. His best was 25TD + 2000 yards.
The KC offensive line I think was a huge factor in the dominant performance of Priest and then Johnson. A Oline such as they have had is a rare thing and most of its key players have now retired. Similarly for Alexander the Seahawks had a dominant left side of Jones/Hutch that most of Alexanders scoring and productive runs came behind.
Compare this to LT who has had an overachieving Oline for most of his career until just recently. I think the addition of Marcus McNiel at LT last year had a huge effect on LT's record setting performance. This is an offensive line just coming into its prime right now as opposed to being one looking to decline in the near future.
Steven Jackson has Orlando Pace but Pace looks to be nearing the end of his career now and will need to be replaced. I do think Alex Barron is a good RT not sure if he can make the transition to the other side or not but even if he can Pace will be missed.
The SF Oline is young and should continue improving and remain intact for several years to come. Much like LT's Oline.
The Redskins Oline with Sanders as OC produced 2200 yards rushing last year and is another unit that has elite line players with continuity that should remain intact for the next few seasons although they are getting older now and lost thier LG to free agency this offseason.
My point being that LT who is only 28 years old now has a solid Oline to support him as well as surrounding cast. Coach that funnells much of the offense through the main RB leading to the success of Gore recently and in the past Emmitt, Terry Allen, Stephen Davis, LT.
Looking around the league for outside influences that will have an effect over the long term combined with a track record of performance I am not seeing situations as favorable as what I am seeing for LT. And last year may have been the begining of seeing LT score double dozens in total TD that could last for the next 3 years.
In dynasty that is how far I look ahead. 3 years. No longer than that. And I actualy do not see other players such as Jackson being able to keep pace with him. They will be chasing his performance of the years prior to last year while I do not see indications that LT will regress (sounds funny to say that in this case) that far.
LT may not break his record set last year but I also do not see him dipping below 20TD over the next 3 years either. This is a very high standard to try to come close to for the other RB and we may see a few years of LT being in a uber-tier by himself while there are a handful of RB in a second elite tier behind him.
I definitly do not see Steven Jackson + Evans being enough to get it done. In discussion from linked thread here in this thread value being established seems to be a RB1 (Jackson, Gore, FWP ect.) a RB2 and a elite level QB or WR. As when running the VBD #s just based on LTs past performance.. not 2006 but just his averages 2RB VBD #s do not match up with him. It takes somthing more than this for such a trade to be in the LT owners favor.
I do welcome a discussion and debate of this however as my opinion on it is not entirely set in stone and I am still exploring the answer to that question. What is LT really worth?
Not sure. I'll get back to you on that.
I would never make this trade regardless of whether or not I could win now. This is the best fantasy player on the planet and thus he command a package of superior PROVEN talent...that is, if you even want to move him.
Noone is doubting whether or not he will be elite. The arguement is taking his value off of last years record breaking stats. Comperable to taking SA or Peyton's values after their record breaking years. Now is a great time to try to sell LT2 as his value will never be higher, but his value should be figured out at an elite RB #s and not record breaking year #s.
top 3 in those previous years is because of record smashing years in those seasons by Priest Holmes, Shawn Alexander and Larry Johnson. The difference in points between LT and these elite RB has been negligable. They have all been in the same uber tier of scoring. The difference ushualy being total TD. LT has been in this uber tier longer than any of them and is a more consistent player game to game season to season than any of them. That is why he is the best of the best.Thanks for the laugh.
