DeSean Jackson...getting no respect... (1 Viewer)

[Billy Bats]

I love DJax, problem is that he will not get many red zone targets because of his lack of size. Its that simple. He will catch 90+ balls and see about 5-7tds.

90+?? What the hell is going on in here?

 

[LHUCKS]

You can't be serious. There has been only 2 WRs, TWO, in ten years of the McNabb/Reid era that a Philadelphia WR has caught more then 70 footballs in a season. You don't have to join any group think project, but do you watch football?

Let me be exact.I think his ceiling for receptions is at about 100. That's a little over 6 receptions per game.

I'm not projecting that, it's my best case scenario for him. Not sure if everybody thinks of upside projections the same way I do, but it's the "best case scenario" IMHO.

...and yes, I watch football.

 

[massraider]

There has been only 2 WRs, TWO, in ten years of the McNabb/Reid era that a Philadelphia WR has caught more then 70 footballs in a season. You don't have to join any group think project, but do you watch football?

Well, I suppose the argument can be made that, aside from a few of those years, they didn't have guy good enough to be worthy of that many targets.The Eagles are going to throw it a ton, as always. I wonder if Maclin, Curtis, and Brown are good enough to make them want to spread it around. If DeSean really is that good, maybe he catches 80. He had 62 last year. Is a 20 catch increase that hard to fathom?

Not being argumentative, but I think it's possible DeSean takes that next step.

 

[Billy Bats]

You can't be serious. There has been only 2 WRs, TWO, in ten years of the McNabb/Reid era that a Philadelphia WR has caught more then 70 footballs in a season. You don't have to join any group think project, but do you watch football?

Let me be exact.I think his ceiling for receptions is at about 100. That's a little over 6 receptions per game.

I'm not projecting that, it's my best case scenario for him. Not sure if everybody thinks of upside projections the same way I do, but it's the "best case scenario" IMHO.

...and yes, I watch football.

All I'm saying is that only Terrell Owens in his prime may have had a 100 catch ceiling with this offense. DeSean Jackson, while looking like a real good WR, is not Terrell Owens in his prime. And it's only his second year. He may also be returning punts, which will limit his use a little bit. Along with McNabb using his RB's as WR's, Jackson's size limitations inside the red zone, the spread it around offense, and it only being DeSean's second season, I think projecting/thinking 90 catches is pretty ridiculous.

 

[LHUCKS]

All I'm saying is that only Terrell Owens in his prime may have had a 100 catch ceiling with this offense. DeSean Jackson, while looking like a real good WR, is not Terrell Owens in his prime. And it's only his second year. He may also be returning punts, which will limit his use a little bit. Along with McNabb using his RB's as WR's, Jackson's size limitations inside the red zone, the spread it around offense, and it only being DeSean's second season, I think projecting/thinking 90 catches is pretty ridiculous.

Fair enough, sound arguments...we'll agree to disagree. But again, I'm not projecting 90 receptions. I have him projected for 84 receptions. I have his ceiling at 102, but a number of things have to happen for that to occur including a Westbrook injury.

 

[Billy Bats]

There has been only 2 WRs, TWO, in ten years of the McNabb/Reid era that a Philadelphia WR has caught more then 70 footballs in a season. You don't have to join any group think project, but do you watch football?

Well, I suppose the argument can be made that, aside from a few of those years, they didn't have guy good enough to be worthy of that many targets.The Eagles are going to throw it a ton, as always. I wonder if Maclin, Curtis, and Brown are good enough to make them want to spread it around. If DeSean really is that good, maybe he catches 80. He had 62 last year. Is a 20 catch increase that hard to fathom?

Not being argumentative, but I think it's possible DeSean takes that next step.

Within this offense it isn't likely that he comes close to 90. 80 isn't unfathomable , so I would think 80 is his ceiling. I explained some reasons above, I'm thinking he comes in around 65-70.

 

[baconisgood]

Double digit TDs is an extreme longshot for Jackson?

Turning into the next Marvin Harrison is a long shot

as for the QB, McNabb isn't shabby.

He is still WAY below Manning.

 

[awesomeness]

the one thing that scares me about desean jackson is that he doesn't catch the ball with his hands enough, and often times he just lets the ball hit his body.

That lowers the chance of him getting 1000+ yards more than the fact that the eagles like to spread the ball around imo.

 

[Jason Wood]

It's a fairly decent comparison but I'm sure you agree that he has a long way to go to really be mentioned in the same breath as Marvin Harrison.

We're talking about upside here...I think it's absolutely a fair comparison. As a matter of fact Jackson is faster than Harrison...and I mean easily faster.

I don't usually bother to mention extreme long shot upsides, its usually not worth the time.

Double digit TDs is an extreme longshot for Jackson?

Of course it is.1) Projecting double digit TDs for any receiver is a long shot...only 7 WRs per season (on average) score 10+ TDs over the last decade2) Terrell Owens is the only player in the Reid era to have double digit TD catches, and he did it once3) In Reid's tenure, there have only been 10 seasons of more than FIVE TD catches:1 Terrell Owens 2004 14 2 Reggie Brown 2006 8 3 James Thrash 2001 8 4 Charles Johnson 2000 7 5 Todd Pinkston 2002 7 6 Kevin Curtis 2007 6 7 Chad Lewis 2001 6 8 Terrell Owens 2005 6 9 James Thrash 2002 6 10 Brian Westbrook 2004 6

 

[LHUCKS]

1) Projecting double digit TDs for any receiver is a long shot...only 7 WRs per season (on average) score 10+ TDs over the last decade

Okay, well I have him projected at 8...he catches two more he's at 10...just doesn't seem that far fetched to me.

2) Terrell Owens is the only player in the Reid era to have double digit TD catches, and he did it once3) In Reid's tenure, there have only been 10 seasons of more than FIVE TD catches:1 Terrell Owens 2004 14 2 Reggie Brown 2006 8 3 James Thrash 2001 8 4 Charles Johnson 2000 7 5 Todd Pinkston 2002 7 6 Kevin Curtis 2007 6 7 Chad Lewis 2001 6 8 Terrell Owens 2005 6 9 James Thrash 2002 6 10 Brian Westbrook 2004 6

I just think this approach is faulty logic. DeSean in my opinion is a better WR than all of those listed minus T.O. Reid/McNabb didn't spread it around because of a philosophy, they did it because of the mediocrity at WR. Jackson is not mediocre. If anything the disparity between T.O. in '04 and the rest of the seasons prove that...sticks out like a sore thumb.

 

[SSOG]

Of course it is.1) Projecting double digit TDs for any receiver is a long shot...only 7 WRs per season (on average) score 10+ TDs over the last decade2) Terrell Owens is the only player in the Reid era to have double digit TD catches, and he did it once3) In Reid's tenure, there have only been 10 seasons of more than FIVE TD catches:1 Terrell Owens 2004 14 2 Reggie Brown 2006 8 3 James Thrash 2001 8 4 Charles Johnson 2000 7 5 Todd Pinkston 2002 7 6 Kevin Curtis 2007 6 7 Chad Lewis 2001 6 8 Terrell Owens 2005 6 9 James Thrash 2002 6 10 Brian Westbrook 2004 6

You keep going back to this "Andy Reid historically hasn't" bit, but I think you're missing the point entirely. Sure, technically only once has a Philly WR gone for 10+ TDs, and only twice has a receiver gone for 1,000 yards... but throwing out those stats over and over doesn't make them any less disingenuous. In 2005, Owens had 763 yards in just 7 games. Do you truly, honestly believe that Owens couldn't have managed to get 237 more yards in the next 9 games? You don't think Owens could have averaged 26 yards per game for the rest of the season had he stayed healthy? For all intents and purposes, Owens played two seasons in Philly, and he might as well have had 1,000 yards and 10+ TDs in both.I could just as easily state it another way. Since 2000, Philly's #1 receiver has been Charles Johnson, James Thrash, Todd Pinkston, Todd Pinkston, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Reggie Brown, Kevin Curtis, and DeSean Jackson. Are we really shocked that Johnson, Thrash, Pinkston, and Reggie Brown never went for 1,000 yards? Do we really think the reason that those guys haven't gone for 1,000 is because Andy Reid doesn't want a #1 target and not because... you know... they really, really suck? I could just as easily say that every single time that Andy Reid has had an actual NFL-caliber WR, that WR has gone for 1,000 yards, and since DeSean is an NFL-caliber WR (as evidenced by his 900 last year), he's a lock for 1,000 yards based on Reid's history.I think a lot of good arguments have been raised by both sides, but this whole "Reid doesn't have a history of going to one WR" argument is completely backwards, IMO. You're confusing cause and effect. It's not that Reid doesn't go to one WR, it's that none of Reid's WRs have been go-to WRs. You're getting far to cute if you think that James Thrash's inability to get 1,000 yards has anything to do with anything other than the fact that he's James freaking Thrash.

 

[Tanner9919]

SSOG,

for me, the thing with DJax is that Philly spreads the ball around quite a bit..I see your point about the Reid stuff and I agree.Djax could very well catch 80+ and go well oer 1000 yards..however, with Westbrook, Celek, Vick, Curtis, McCoy, etc, it's hard to aimagine one guy catching much more than 80/1000/6..I listed Vick becuase he's sure to take some of the touches/carries our of the hands of others as he'll get about 10-12 plays.gm..

djax just might be a victim of 'too many mouths to feed'

 

[Crippler]

SSOG,for me, the thing with DJax is that Philly spreads the ball around quite a bit..I see your point about the Reid stuff and I agree.Djax could very well catch 80+ and go well oer 1000 yards..however, with Westbrook, Celek, Vick, Curtis, McCoy, etc, it's hard to aimagine one guy catching much more than 80/1000/6..I listed Vick becuase he's sure to take some of the touches/carries our of the hands of others as he'll get about 10-12 plays.gm..djax just might be a victim of 'too many mouths to feed'

Here is my thought also. Going back to the history and I dont think Philly has ever assembled such a talented and deep core of O players either. One reason I see Jackson not in TO's class and back with the rest of them. 70-1000-5 is probably what it will look like. I think Maclin will have a say when all is said and done and Jackson might not even be the best WR in Philly. McNabb <<<< Manning and thus there goes the Harrison comparisons. Harrison best years was before the emergence of Wayne also. While he still put up good numbers, he went from being a 110 catch guy down to 90 and 1500 down to 1200.

 

[Tackling Dummies]

There's a big difference between "many mouths to feed" and a playmaker. Celek & Curtis are not guys that you alter coverage or change your game plans. Vick is a complete unknown and could be a non factor for the first 6 games. Westbrook will get his and McCoy is getting his feet wet.

Maclin is an unknown in this system. Reggie Brown, Avant and Baskett are filling out the depth charts.

Jackson is the obvious option to get the ball in his hands and let him go. LHUCKS posted earlier about being Jackson nearly uncoverable and that's (to me) the primary factor that places Jackson in a different catagory in the Philly offense. Play soft and it will be screen, screen, screen and if you play tight and he gets by, it's o-v-a.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

SSOG,for me, the thing with DJax is that Philly spreads the ball around quite a bit..I see your point about the Reid stuff and I agree.Djax could very well catch 80+ and go well oer 1000 yards..however, with Westbrook, Celek, Vick, Curtis, McCoy, etc, it's hard to aimagine one guy catching much more than 80/1000/6..I listed Vick becuase he's sure to take some of the touches/carries our of the hands of others as he'll get about 10-12 plays.gm..djax just might be a victim of 'too many mouths to feed'

People keep forgetting Jason Avant as well, who the Eagles GM called the best slot WR in the NFL (obviously that is an exaggeration by the GM). Avant has shown nice progression and while his raw talent in no where near Desean Jackson, he's a solid possession receiver who McNabb seemed to trust last season.I'm not saying that the Eagles will spread the ball around because they have doen so in the past - but their offense is based on finding the open WR and they do have a lot of mouths to feed.I also think Jackson's talent level is being a little exaggerated by some people in this thread. He's lightening quick and has great long speed, but isn't a great route runner (yet possibly) and isn't a natural pass catcher (as some one pointed out he lets the ball hit his body more than he should). Without being a great route runner or pass catcher, and not freakishly strong (ala Steve Smith) his size is a hinderance in the red zone.

 

[Billy Bats]

What alot of you guys are forgetting is the WR rotation. They send guys in and out depending on down,distance, formations and coverages. The eagles rotate WRs like their d-line so Jackson isn't on th field for every play, every formation. That alone will keep his reception totals in check along with all the other factors I talked about in my previous posts.

 

[Arizona Ron]

I took him in both drafts so far. I'm really high on this guy.

 

[Arizona Ron]

What alot of you guys are forgetting is the WR rotation. They send guys in and out depending on down,distance, formations and coverages. The eagles rotate WRs like their d-line so Jackson isn't on th field for every play, every formation. That alone will keep his reception totals in check along with all the other factors I talked about in my previous posts.

They've been rotating them because since TO left, they never had a real downfield threat. This guy spreads the Def. The addition of Vick in the slot will work in his favor as well.DeSean = Book it.

 

[Ilov80s]

IMO he's one of the hardest players to project right now.

Positives:

- Good rookie year with clear room for an increase

- Seems to be doing everything right in the off-season

- High end speed and quickness

- Big Play Potential on an offense that supports big plays

- Potential to seen an increase in his carries with Wildcat

- Good backup QBs

Negatives:

- Team that has a lot of weapons and likes to spread the ball

- History of being a bonehead

- Lack of size

- Needs to improve route running to raise his very low TD numbers

- Maclin is choking and Jackson might be back at special teams

which would cost him touches on offense.

- Needs to make better use of his targets

-targeted 121 times last year and caught 62 balls...51% isn't good

-based on the last 3 years, 121 targets makes you about 21st in targets for a season. Thats 20 guys getting more

opportunities. I don't see him getting a big increase in targets. Which puts him around. 121 again. So unless he starts to make more of his targets, I'm not sure he is going to be a legit #1 WR.

- LHucks likes him at 1200 yards 10 TDs- that would have made him the 6th best WR last year (non ppr) in between White and Smith. White had 88 receptions on 149 targets (59%). Smith had 78 of 129 for 60%. Most of the top 30 WRs are at 60% of better. Jackson isn’t Braylon bad (40%) but he was one of the worst among starting NFL WRs. The 2 names that stick out are Calvin Johnson and TO. CJ was at 52%, but he got 30 more targets than Jackson in 08. TO was at 49% last year which makes me wonder if he is about done.

My best advice with Jackson is find a guy in your league early who is high on him, wait for a big week from Jackson and sell high.

 

[Ridgelake]

Coming from the perspective of a big Cowboy fan, I have a feeling Jackson is going to go off. I'm targeting him every time I can because I believe he's got the goods. He's just so freaking explosive that Reid won't have a choice but to get him the ball.

Philly has shown the willingness to use a main target a lot. (TO) I'm not saying he's in that class yet, but he's moving in that direction.

 

[RICK ROMO]

IMO he's one of the hardest players to project right now.

Positives:

- Good rookie year with clear room for an increase

- Seems to be doing everything right in the off-season

- High end speed and quickness

- Big Play Potential on an offense that supports big plays

- Potential to seen an increase in his carries with Wildcat

- Good backup QBs

Negatives:

- Team that has a lot of weapons and likes to spread the ball

- History of being a bonehead

- Lack of size

- Needs to improve route running to raise his very low TD numbers

- Maclin is choking and Jackson might be back at special teams

which would cost him touches on offense.

- Needs to make better use of his targets

-targeted 121 times last year and caught 62 balls...51% isn't good

-based on the last 3 years, 121 targets makes you about 21st in targets for a season. Thats 20 guys getting more

opportunities. I don't see him getting a big increase in targets. Which puts him around. 121 again. So unless he starts to make more of his targets, I'm not sure he is going to be a legit #1 WR.

- LHucks likes him at 1200 yards 10 TDs- that would have made him the 6th best WR last year (non ppr) in between White and Smith. White had 88 receptions on 149 targets (59%). Smith had 78 of 129 for 60%. Most of the top 30 WRs are at 60% of better. Jackson isn’t Braylon bad (40%) but he was one of the worst among starting NFL WRs. The 2 names that stick out are Calvin Johnson and TO. CJ was at 52%, but he got 30 more targets than Jackson in 08. TO was at 49% last year which makes me wonder if he is about done.

My best advice with Jackson is find a guy in your league early who is high on him, wait for a big week from Jackson and sell high.

Would I be buying high if I gave Gates for Jackson in PPR mandatory TE league when my other two TE's are Keller and Finley(GB)? I am trying to decide if I should do this and I am getting no responses on the AC forum. Jackson would be my num 2 with Jennings and Cothchery. Right now I would have Chris Henry in the spot Jackson would take.

 

[Darth Cheney]

If you think Philly's D is going to be a bit more suspect....Jackson getting a lot of balls isn't out of the question. More than a couple of the local sports guys are anticipating a few 35-28 games.

 

[Ilov80s]

Coming from the perspective of a big Cowboy fan, I have a feeling Jackson is going to go off. I'm targeting him every time I can because I believe he's got the goods. He's just so freaking explosive that Reid won't have a choice but to get him the ball.Philly has shown the willingness to use a main target a lot. (TO) I'm not saying he's in that class yet, but he's moving in that direction.

He needs to significantly improve his catch%, yac, and find ways to score TDs. Thats lots of areas to improve on. I think hopes are a bit high here.

 

[Ilov80s]

IMO he's one of the hardest players to project right now.

Positives:

- Good rookie year with clear room for an increase

- Seems to be doing everything right in the off-season

- High end speed and quickness

- Big Play Potential on an offense that supports big plays

- Potential to seen an increase in his carries with Wildcat

- Good backup QBs

Negatives:

- Team that has a lot of weapons and likes to spread the ball

- History of being a bonehead

- Lack of size

- Needs to improve route running to raise his very low TD numbers

- Maclin is choking and Jackson might be back at special teams

which would cost him touches on offense.

- Needs to make better use of his targets

-targeted 121 times last year and caught 62 balls...51% isn't good

-based on the last 3 years, 121 targets makes you about 21st in targets for a season. Thats 20 guys getting more

opportunities. I don't see him getting a big increase in targets. Which puts him around. 121 again. So unless he starts to make more of his targets, I'm not sure he is going to be a legit #1 WR.

- LHucks likes him at 1200 yards 10 TDs- that would have made him the 6th best WR last year (non ppr) in between White and Smith. White had 88 receptions on 149 targets (59%). Smith had 78 of 129 for 60%. Most of the top 30 WRs are at 60% of better. Jackson isn’t Braylon bad (40%) but he was one of the worst among starting NFL WRs. The 2 names that stick out are Calvin Johnson and TO. CJ was at 52%, but he got 30 more targets than Jackson in 08. TO was at 49% last year which makes me wonder if he is about done.

My best advice with Jackson is find a guy in your league early who is high on him, wait for a big week from Jackson and sell high.

Would I be buying high if I gave Gates for Jackson in PPR mandatory TE league when my other two TE's are Keller and Finley(GB)? I am trying to decide if I should do this and I am getting no responses on the AC forum. Jackson would be my num 2 with Jennings and Cothchery. Right now I would have Chris Henry in the spot Jackson would take.

Tough call. The real question here is: was Gates '08 reduction in targets a result of Vincent Jackson stepping up or an aberration caused by nagging injuries? I'd stick with Gates. He is 1 season removed from 75/984/9. He has 5 straights years of 8 or more TDs. I project, with moderate improvement, Jackson will finish around 67/1000/ 5 which would make rank him somewhere around 24-28th for WRs. Gates will likely finish with about the same receptions, less yards, but more TDs (maybe a lot more TDs). I'd rather have the top TE as I think there are likely a few WRs you can find later that will give you similar numbers to Jackson while you'll never pick up a WW tight end as good as Gates.You just need to be dilligent with watching WW and hope to score this years Royal, Breaston, Bryant, or Lance Moore. Those are 5 guys who were likely picked off of waivers and all scored in the top 25 for WRs last year.

 

[Maven]

My projection

63 1008 16ypc 4TD

 

[LHUCKS]

There's a big difference between "many mouths to feed" and a playmaker. Celek & Curtis are not guys that you alter coverage or change your game plans. Vick is a complete unknown and could be a non factor for the first 6 games. Westbrook will get his and McCoy is getting his feet wet. Maclin is an unknown in this system. Reggie Brown, Avant and Baskett are filling out the depth charts. Jackson is the obvious option to get the ball in his hands and let him go. LHUCKS posted earlier about being Jackson nearly uncoverable and that's (to me) the primary factor that places Jackson in a different catagory in the Philly offense. Play soft and it will be screen, screen, screen and if you play tight and he gets by, it's o-v-a.

 

[LHUCKS]

- LHucks likes him at 1200 yards 10 TDs

No I don't, I have the middle of his range projected at 84/ 1170/8The stats we were quoting before were related to a "what's his upside" discussion.

 

[Ilov80s]

- LHucks likes him at 1200 yards 10 TDs

No I don't, I have the middle of his range projected at 84/ 1170/8The stats we were quoting before were related to a "what's his upside" discussion.

my bad, didn't read the entire thread. I still find 84/1170/8 high. Where does the big increae come? YPC, targets, or receptions/target?

 

[RICK ROMO]

IMO he's one of the hardest players to project right now.

Positives:

- Good rookie year with clear room for an increase

- Seems to be doing everything right in the off-season

- High end speed and quickness

- Big Play Potential on an offense that supports big plays

- Potential to seen an increase in his carries with Wildcat

- Good backup QBs

Negatives:

- Team that has a lot of weapons and likes to spread the ball

- History of being a bonehead

- Lack of size

- Needs to improve route running to raise his very low TD numbers

- Maclin is choking and Jackson might be back at special teams

which would cost him touches on offense.

- Needs to make better use of his targets

-targeted 121 times last year and caught 62 balls...51% isn't good

-based on the last 3 years, 121 targets makes you about 21st in targets for a season. Thats 20 guys getting more

opportunities. I don't see him getting a big increase in targets. Which puts him around. 121 again. So unless he starts to make more of his targets, I'm not sure he is going to be a legit #1 WR.

- LHucks likes him at 1200 yards 10 TDs- that would have made him the 6th best WR last year (non ppr) in between White and Smith. White had 88 receptions on 149 targets (59%). Smith had 78 of 129 for 60%. Most of the top 30 WRs are at 60% of better. Jackson isn’t Braylon bad (40%) but he was one of the worst among starting NFL WRs. The 2 names that stick out are Calvin Johnson and TO. CJ was at 52%, but he got 30 more targets than Jackson in 08. TO was at 49% last year which makes me wonder if he is about done.

My best advice with Jackson is find a guy in your league early who is high on him, wait for a big week from Jackson and sell high.

Would I be buying high if I gave Gates for Jackson in PPR mandatory TE league when my other two TE's are Keller and Finley(GB)? I am trying to decide if I should do this and I am getting no responses on the AC forum. Jackson would be my num 2 with Jennings and Cothchery. Right now I would have Chris Henry in the spot Jackson would take.

Tough call. The real question here is: was Gates '08 reduction in targets a result of Vincent Jackson stepping up or an aberration caused by nagging injuries? I'd stick with Gates. He is 1 season removed from 75/984/9. He has 5 straights years of 8 or more TDs. I project, with moderate improvement, Jackson will finish around 67/1000/ 5 which would make rank him somewhere around 24-28th for WRs. Gates will likely finish with about the same receptions, less yards, but more TDs (maybe a lot more TDs). I'd rather have the top TE as I think there are likely a few WRs you can find later that will give you similar numbers to Jackson while you'll never pick up a WW tight end as good as Gates.You just need to be dilligent with watching WW and hope to score this years Royal, Breaston, Bryant, or Lance Moore. Those are 5 guys who were likely picked off of waivers and all scored in the top 25 for WRs last year.

Thanks for the feedback.

 

[LHUCKS]

- LHucks likes him at 1200 yards 10 TDs

No I don't, I have the middle of his range projected at 84/ 1170/8The stats we were quoting before were related to a "what's his upside" discussion.

my bad, didn't read the entire thread. I still find 84/1170/8 high. Where does the big increae come? YPC, targets, or receptions/target?

Targets and receptions. He also has room to improve on his YPC given his explosiveness...really depends on how the Eagles use him this year.

 

[Ripleys]

Jackson is absolutely good enough to get 80-100 catches, but it just seems McChoke loves spreading it around and with Westy, Curtis, Maclin, Avant, Celek, even McCoy, just not sure anyone in that offense will get as many targets as we'd all probably like.

 

[Native]

Of course it is.1) Projecting double digit TDs for any receiver is a long shot...only 7 WRs per season (on average) score 10+ TDs over the last decade2) Terrell Owens is the only player in the Reid era to have double digit TD catches, and he did it once3) In Reid's tenure, there have only been 10 seasons of more than FIVE TD catches:1 Terrell Owens 2004 14 2 Reggie Brown 2006 8 3 James Thrash 2001 8 4 Charles Johnson 2000 7 5 Todd Pinkston 2002 7 6 Kevin Curtis 2007 6 7 Chad Lewis 2001 6 8 Terrell Owens 2005 6 9 James Thrash 2002 6 10 Brian Westbrook 2004 6

You keep going back to this "Andy Reid historically hasn't" bit, but I think you're missing the point entirely. Sure, technically only once has a Philly WR gone for 10+ TDs, and only twice has a receiver gone for 1,000 yards... but throwing out those stats over and over doesn't make them any less disingenuous. In 2005, Owens had 763 yards in just 7 games. Do you truly, honestly believe that Owens couldn't have managed to get 237 more yards in the next 9 games? You don't think Owens could have averaged 26 yards per game for the rest of the season had he stayed healthy? For all intents and purposes, Owens played two seasons in Philly, and he might as well have had 1,000 yards and 10+ TDs in both.I could just as easily state it another way. Since 2000, Philly's #1 receiver has been Charles Johnson, James Thrash, Todd Pinkston, Todd Pinkston, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Reggie Brown, Kevin Curtis, and DeSean Jackson. Are we really shocked that Johnson, Thrash, Pinkston, and Reggie Brown never went for 1,000 yards? Do we really think the reason that those guys haven't gone for 1,000 is because Andy Reid doesn't want a #1 target and not because... you know... they really, really suck? I could just as easily say that every single time that Andy Reid has had an actual NFL-caliber WR, that WR has gone for 1,000 yards, and since DeSean is an NFL-caliber WR (as evidenced by his 900 last year), he's a lock for 1,000 yards based on Reid's history.I think a lot of good arguments have been raised by both sides, but this whole "Reid doesn't have a history of going to one WR" argument is completely backwards, IMO. You're confusing cause and effect. It's not that Reid doesn't go to one WR, it's that none of Reid's WRs have been go-to WRs. You're getting far to cute if you think that James Thrash's inability to get 1,000 yards has anything to do with anything other than the fact that he's James freaking Thrash.

Agree with all of this.

 

[Ilov80s]

Jackson is absolutely good enough to get 80-100 catches, but it just seems McChoke loves spreading it around and with Westy, Curtis, Maclin, Avant, Celek, even McCoy, just not sure anyone in that offense will get as many targets as we'd all probably like.

Only 3 Wrs caught 100 balls last year. Even if he catches 80, how many will be in the endzone?If the Eagles target Jackson 20% more, and he catches 9% more of the targets (would put him at 60% with most NFL starting WRs), he'll only have 87 catches. Those seem like sharp increases to me.

 

[Mookie Blaylock]

You keep going back to this "Andy Reid historically hasn't" bit, but I think you're missing the point entirely. Sure, technically only once has a Philly WR gone for 10+ TDs, and only twice has a receiver gone for 1,000 yards... but throwing out those stats over and over doesn't make them any less disingenuous. In 2005, Owens had 763 yards in just 7 games. Do you truly, honestly believe that Owens couldn't have managed to get 237 more yards in the next 9 games? You don't think Owens could have averaged 26 yards per game for the rest of the season had he stayed healthy? For all intents and purposes, Owens played two seasons in Philly, and he might as well have had 1,000 yards and 10+ TDs in both.

I could just as easily state it another way. Since 2000, Philly's #1 receiver has been Charles Johnson, James Thrash, Todd Pinkston, Todd Pinkston, Terrell Owens, Terrell Owens, Reggie Brown, Kevin Curtis, and DeSean Jackson. Are we really shocked that Johnson, Thrash, Pinkston, and Reggie Brown never went for 1,000 yards? Do we really think the reason that those guys haven't gone for 1,000 is because Andy Reid doesn't want a #1 target and not because... you know... they really, really suck? I could just as easily say that every single time that Andy Reid has had an actual NFL-caliber WR, that WR has gone for 1,000 yards, and since DeSean is an NFL-caliber WR (as evidenced by his 900 last year), he's a lock for 1,000 yards based on Reid's history.

I think a lot of good arguments have been raised by both sides, but this whole "Reid doesn't have a history of going to one WR" argument is completely backwards, IMO. You're confusing cause and effect. It's not that Reid doesn't go to one WR, it's that none of Reid's WRs have been go-to WRs. You're getting far to cute if you think that James Thrash's inability to get 1,000 yards has anything to do with anything other than the fact that he's James freaking Thrash.

ETA: Not so good at the quoting thing, apparently.

 

[LHUCKS]

Only 3 Wrs caught 100 balls last year.

Nobody is projecting 100 balls as far as I can tell.

Even if he catches 80, how many will be in the endzone?

With his explosiveness I currently have him at 8.

If the Eagles target Jackson 20% more, and he catches 9% more of the targets (would put him at 60% with most NFL starting WRs), he'll only have 87 catches. Those seem like sharp increases to me.

20% doesn't seem like that much to me...this is his year 2 and Reid has stated they're going to get him the ball more. Everything that I've read, seen and heard supports an increase in targets.

 

[RBM]

Am I the only one seeing an almost exact replica to Steve Smith when he erupted?

Jackson is the real deal, monster year on the way.

 

[Ilov80s]

Am I the only one seeing an almost exact replica to Steve Smith when he erupted?Jackson is the real deal, monster year on the way.

How do you feel about Teddy Ginn Jr?

 

[lyon812]

I think a lot of good arguments have been raised by both sides, but this whole "Reid doesn't have a history of going to one WR" argument is completely backwards, IMO. You're confusing cause and effect. It's not that Reid doesn't go to one WR, it's that none of Reid's WRs have been go-to WRs. You're getting far to cute if you think that James Thrash's inability to get 1,000 yards has anything to do with anything other than the fact that he's James freaking Thrash.

Exactly, just as I pointed out on page one. I think this is a prime case of looking too hard at the stats instead of what lies behind them.

 

[whodeywhodey]

Count me in as a huge Jackson fan this year. From everything I have read he is in tune with McNabb. I think that he is going to top 1000 yards in that offense. I think he'll go for about 80/1100/9 this year.

 

[RBM]

Am I the only one seeing an almost exact replica to Steve Smith when he erupted?Jackson is the real deal, monster year on the way.

How do you feel about Teddy Ginn Jr?

Doesnt even have close to the ankle-breaking quickness Smith/Jackson have. But I would like Gin alot better if he had a qb that could get him the ball deep on a regular basis.

 

[whodeywhodey]

Am I the only one seeing an almost exact replica to Steve Smith when he erupted?Jackson is the real deal, monster year on the way.

How do you feel about Teddy Ginn Jr?

Doesnt even have close to the ankle-breaking quickness Smith/Jackson have. But I would like Gin alot better if he had a qb that could get him the ball deep on a regular basis.

Why does this conversation belong in the middle of a DeJackson post?

 

[cvnpoka]

i think you guys are projecting too many tds. he had 3 tds if you count the fumble from 62 catches last year. i think expecting him to double his td rate is a bit optimistic. i think 80/1200 and 6 is much more reasonable.

 

[whodeywhodey]

i think you guys are projecting too many tds. he had 3 tds if you count the fumble from 62 catches last year. i think expecting him to double his td rate is a bit optimistic. i think 80/1200 and 6 is much more reasonable.

I am expecting them to double his touches. So doubling his TDs isn't too far off.

 

[cvnpoka]

you are projecting 1td every 9 catches. last yr he caught 1 td every 20 catches. just seems beyond optimistic.

and i dont think that going from 60 to 80 catches would be doubling his touches.

 

[Sylira21]

i think you guys are projecting too many tds. he had 3 tds if you count the fumble from 62 catches last year. i think expecting him to double his td rate is a bit optimistic. i think 80/1200 and 6 is much more reasonable.

I am expecting them to double his touches. So doubling his TDs isn't too far off.

He had 121 targets last year. So are you expecting 240 passes to him in 2009?

 

[Mookie Blaylock]

i think you guys are projecting too many tds. he had 3 tds if you count the fumble from 62 catches last year. i think expecting him to double his td rate is a bit optimistic. i think 80/1200 and 6 is much more reasonable.

I'd take that even where I drafted him (end of 4th).

 

[Jason Wood]

Having seen every snap of this young kid's career, I'm mystified at how many people are throwing around words like "uncoverable." He may have the ability to be a 1,000-yard receiver many times over, and he certainly appears to have worked on his game this offseason as I hoped he would, but uncoverable? On what planet? He's tiny, and while he's dangerous in the open field he can get SHUT DOWN at the line of scrimmage. He needs to work on getting off the line of scrimmage cleanly before he deserves to be called uncoverable. He's also not a guy (like TO who's been ridiculously compared to him) that can take a big hit. Byproduct of his size.

I love DJax and love that the Eagles drafted him. I also acknowledge that he MAY be the 2nd most talented receiver Reid has ever had in the offense. And that's why I would be shocked at a 1,200-yard, 10-TD season. But accepting it as a possibility and drafting for it are VASTLY different things. The MOST LIKELY outcome for Jackson is 900-1000 yards over a full season, with 5-8 TDs. If you expect him to do more than that, more power to you...I hope you're right! But let's not discuss it like it's a fait accompli.

 

[whodeywhodey]

i think you guys are projecting too many tds. he had 3 tds if you count the fumble from 62 catches last year. i think expecting him to double his td rate is a bit optimistic. i think 80/1200 and 6 is much more reasonable.

I am expecting them to double his touches. So doubling his TDs isn't too far off.

He had 121 targets last year. So are you expecting 240 passes to him in 2009?

Wrong post. Sorry.

 

[whodeywhodey]

i think you guys are projecting too many tds. he had 3 tds if you count the fumble from 62 catches last year. i think expecting him to double his td rate is a bit optimistic. i think 80/1200 and 6 is much more reasonable.

I am expecting them to double his touches. So doubling his TDs isn't too far off.

He had 121 targets last year. So are you expecting 240 passes to him in 2009?

My mistake. Got this thread and the Leon one mixed up.

 

[Billy Bats]

Having seen every snap of this young kid's career, I'm mystified at how many people are throwing around words like "uncoverable." He may have the ability to be a 1,000-yard receiver many times over, and he certainly appears to have worked on his game this offseason as I hoped he would, but uncoverable? On what planet? He's tiny, and while he's dangerous in the open field he can get SHUT DOWN at the line of scrimmage. He needs to work on getting off the line of scrimmage cleanly before he deserves to be called uncoverable. He's also not a guy (like TO who's been ridiculously compared to him) that can take a big hit. Byproduct of his size.I love DJax and love that the Eagles drafted him. I also acknowledge that he MAY be the 2nd most talented receiver Reid has ever had in the offense. And that's why I would be shocked at a 1,200-yard, 10-TD season. But accepting it as a possibility and drafting for it are VASTLY different things. The MOST LIKELY outcome for Jackson is 900-1000 yards over a full season, with 5-8 TDs. If you expect him to do more than that, more power to you...I hope you're right! But let's not discuss it like it's a fait accompli.

There's way too much expectation on this kid. It's pretty interesting to read the projections and analysis from people who don't watch any Eagles games.