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DFS data leak: employees cheating? (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Willie Neslon
- Start date
Tennessee_ATO
Footballguy
Like I said, then the pros now have that huge edge needed to dominate because the vast majority of daily players won't make even the slightest effort to use that information on other sites. It should be a happy day for them.
They don't need to email it. I personally want fewer emails, not more, from DFS sites.Ramblin Wreck said:
They need to make it available for download as soon as a contest starts.
DraftKings already does this. They have an "Export lineups to CSV" link just under the live standings -- though because of late swap, the file excludes players in games that haven't started yet. (This is one reason I think late swap is a bad idea.)
FanDuel does not offer such a download, as far as I can tell. (It's possible I'm just missing it, but I don't think so.) I have no idea why they don't. They really should. You can view everyone else's rosters, but you either have to click on them individually or write a script to scrape them all. They don't make it easy. Maybe that will change now.
Omniscient Deity
Footballguy
Looks like it's been deleted....wonder if the OP had 2nd thoughts or was forced to take it down. Won't even let me click on his profile.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
You can upload a new CSV file after the games start. Someone would catch them in a large tournament but if they are playing h2h and changing lineups they wouldn't get caught unless their opponent was around right at kickoff to download it.
If a site allows people to download csv files upon the start of a contest, the site is not going to upload new, contradictory csv files afterwards. (That would be the easiest thing in the world to catch.) Making the downloads available would be enough.
And if it's a H2H, you don't need a csv file. Just look at your opponent's lineup on your phone. A csv file is helpful when there are hundreds or thousands of rosters.
And if it's a H2H, you don't need a csv file. Just look at your opponent's lineup on your phone. A csv file is helpful when there are hundreds or thousands of rosters.
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Peyton Marino
Footballguy
reddit took it down because it linked to DK dude's linkedin profile IIRC. there's a screenshot of it on twitter along with some other pretty damning stuff, but can't access twitter from work.
freeannyong
Footballguy
And here we have some more goodies:
https://rotogrinders.com/threads/go-to-draftstreet-put-in-chat-league-1874137-look-at-175242?page=4#reply-175529
https://twitter.com/jbxx21/status/651936478113701891
Cliffs: looks like a lot of people had access to the database with lineups and usernames
https://rotogrinders.com/threads/go-to-draftstreet-put-in-chat-league-1874137-look-at-175242?page=4#reply-175529
https://twitter.com/jbxx21/status/651936478113701891
Cliffs: looks like a lot of people had access to the database with lineups and usernames
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
yep and there's one more that's a screenshot of that user (waiverwire, a FD rep) that shows his RG ranking and results on DK. he CRUSHES it on DK.
Skoo
Footballguy
From the links above: (note, it was written 2 years ago)
Regarding Kaetorade’s post, we’ve always been open about the fact that some of our employees at FanDuel have access to lineups. I assume that the same is true at most other sites. We could potentially limit the ability of support staff to see lineups, although it would also limit their ability to troubleshoot issues that players reported. But I have a very hard time envisioning a setup where our programmers and ops staff wouldn’t have the ability to see lineups in the database.
Our belief is that this wouldn’t afford much of an advantage, because the pricing structures on each site are wildly different (and rosters, positions, and scoring vary as well). Regardless of that, our employees also understand that they are expected not to use this information and in fact shouldn’t be viewing this data except as needed to do their jobs.
We also believe that it is important for employees of sites to play on other sites. Without that happening, the industry as a whole will suffer, as everything from software to player pricing to contest types is generally going to be a lot better designed if people who play DFS are involved in the process…not to mention the additional difficulty that sites will have hiring quality employees if people know that they’ll have to quit playing DFS to work for a site.
Regarding Kaetorade’s post, we’ve always been open about the fact that some of our employees at FanDuel have access to lineups. I assume that the same is true at most other sites. We could potentially limit the ability of support staff to see lineups, although it would also limit their ability to troubleshoot issues that players reported. But I have a very hard time envisioning a setup where our programmers and ops staff wouldn’t have the ability to see lineups in the database.
Our belief is that this wouldn’t afford much of an advantage, because the pricing structures on each site are wildly different (and rosters, positions, and scoring vary as well). Regardless of that, our employees also understand that they are expected not to use this information and in fact shouldn’t be viewing this data except as needed to do their jobs.
We also believe that it is important for employees of sites to play on other sites. Without that happening, the industry as a whole will suffer, as everything from software to player pricing to contest types is generally going to be a lot better designed if people who play DFS are involved in the process…not to mention the additional difficulty that sites will have hiring quality employees if people know that they’ll have to quit playing DFS to work for a site.
karmarooster
Footballguy
The dude who got his post deleted from Reddit told an interesting story:
He played a few MLB games on DK and apparently sucked. Then, some employee at DK (per his LinkedIn profile), noticed "this guy is a fish." DK Employee guy then proceeded to "challenge" this poster/MLB fish on Fanduel for head to head contests dozens and dozens of times, until he contacted support at one of the sites and asked for it to stop. Obviously this DK employee was mining their own data to find fish, and then search them out on FD.
Wow.
http://imgur.com/9Dzclda --> item 2
He played a few MLB games on DK and apparently sucked. Then, some employee at DK (per his LinkedIn profile), noticed "this guy is a fish." DK Employee guy then proceeded to "challenge" this poster/MLB fish on Fanduel for head to head contests dozens and dozens of times, until he contacted support at one of the sites and asked for it to stop. Obviously this DK employee was mining their own data to find fish, and then search them out on FD.
Wow.
http://imgur.com/9Dzclda --> item 2
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Willie Neslon
Footballguy
So did the sites just not believe that if the public found out employees were using ownership data on different sites that it would be a big deal? Or did they just not think their employees would be using this data to rake in the money on other sites? Or did they simply not care? what about the public personalities like Berry? I havent listened to the podcast in ages but has he said anything? Or is he just still endlessly promoting his rotopass goldmine as if nothing happened?
The whole thing is just nuts. These sites had the lobbying power of the leagues on their side. Could have made billions of dollars. Now the leagues are already giving the appearance at least of distancing themselves. I've gotten emails from people who don't even play talking about it, saying these sites are fixed.
The whole thing is just nuts. These sites had the lobbying power of the leagues on their side. Could have made billions of dollars. Now the leagues are already giving the appearance at least of distancing themselves. I've gotten emails from people who don't even play talking about it, saying these sites are fixed.
DraftKings' and FanDuel's position is that this didn't happen. DraftKings said that Haskell didn't get the DK info until after the FD contest had already started.
But if we assume purely for the sake of argument that DK is full of baloney, and that Haskell and others did have access to info that they were able to use on FD, I suspect that they didn't think it would be a big deal. The DK brass probably figured (wrongly) that DK ownership percentage wouldn't be terribly useful at FD because the pricing was different. (And it actually was fairly different a few years ago -- their pricing has converged in the last couple years.) Edit: See Skoo's post above.
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Willie Neslon
Footballguy
Does anyone believe this? The post on reddit above talks about an employee whipping out a phone and viewing ownership percentages right in front of a player before the games started. Haskell is just that good to have all of those high finishes in a short period of time? Fanduel employees made .3% of all draftkings payouts because they're just that good?
James Daulton
Footballguy
What DFS was there before DK and FD? And why would successful players take a real job? That would eat into their analysis time. Unless of course being employed gave them access to info no one else had...
NixonMask
Footballguy
I wasnt playing years ago so Im not familiar with the now closed sites, but Im sure other people know the names.
As for why they would take a job? Why not? It wouldnt prevent them from playing on other sites, the analysis time is part of what theyre doing at work anyway, and they get to hang out with their buddies.
Or they knew they could get an advantage over other players.
As for why they would take a job? Why not? It wouldnt prevent them from playing on other sites, the analysis time is part of what theyre doing at work anyway, and they get to hang out with their buddies.
Or they knew they could get an advantage over other players.
Doug B
Footballguy
Good synopsis here of early DFS. FanDuel itself started in 2009, and Draft Kings in 2012. There were other smaller sites in play circa 2010-13.
waltj
Footballguy
Interview with DK CEO [SIZE=16.8px]Jason Robbins about the current situation for those interested[/SIZE]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-f7m2wupWU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-f7m2wupWU
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
The first comment after FD rep Waiverwire (Skoo's post) admitted they could see lineups and play on other sites.
Ethan's accidental tweet has started a landslide of other issues.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
I want to hear from John Lee on these things. I was following him long before he came aboard here. He knows several big guns personally and several site employee/players personally. I think he's FBG's closest thing to an inside guy. What's your take tipandpick?
John Lee
Footballguy
Gotta record the DK podcast and start working on some lineup building & writing...will try to check back in later tonight with my take.
-TnP
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
Thanks but no hurry here. I'd appreciate it most if I felt you took your time and shared reality with us. There's so much speculation, conjecture, extrapolation and conspiracy that comes from emotionally driven accusations that I want to lean innocent until proven guilty. But it reads like Ethan's possibly innocent mistake launched a witch hunt that should burn some witches.
Willie Neslon
Footballguy
I watched some of it. The whole "some of our guys aren't employees, they're analysts who don't come into the office" is odd to me. What these sites need to understand it's not whether or not they're behaving ethically or not, it's the whether or not they give the appearance of behaving ethically. Anything that even gives the appearance of potential advantages for people connected to the company needs to be swiftly and completely rectified. Is any analysis worth even the slightest the appearance these analysts could potentially have access to protected data?
chauncey
Footballguy
Well a lawsuit has been filed now. http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/13840184/class-action-lawsuit-accuses-draftkings-fanduel-negligence-fraud-false-advertising
John Lee
Footballguy
I have admittedly not read through all eight pages of this thread, so please forgive me if I haven't answered a question that you posed in one of the nearly 400 posts...but, honestly, I'm a little burned out on the media hype, the fallout, and the conspiracy theorists that have pervaded every corner of my (and presumable your) life this week.
First about Ethan. I personally know Ethan. We've bought each other beers and hung out in Vegas on a number of occasions, in addition to talking offline about NFL, networking, and even playing some hoops (I won...he was bitter). Of all the things that happened this past week, I feel most strongly about the negativity that has surrounded this young man. We have heard from DK that Ethan only pulled ownership reports in accordance with his duties as a content manager and that those reports were pulled at a time after rosters locked on FD (where he won the $350K). My feeling is that it would be a lot easier on DK to identify a scapegoat, fire that individual, make broad-sweeping changes to their data integrity policies, and try to pass the entire episode off as a one-time-thing; instead, Jason Robins (DK CEO) has gone on record in multiple arenas to say that Ethan never pulled any data at a time that would have otherwise been suspicious with regards to using said information for lineup construction on FD. To stand behind him in this firestorm without good reason would be an idiotic decision for the CEO of a $1B company (IMO). In the meantime, just Google Ethan's name and read some of the articles that have been written about him...every photo he has ever taken, every forum post he has even made, every tweet ever tweeted have all been scoured for everything and anything that might portray him in a negative light.
Regarding Ethan's hot streak in August, I can tell you first-hand that if you play DFS everyday of the year, you will hit periods of time where you will just run hot. Over a six week span starting in November of 2013 (when prize pools were much lower), I won nearly $100K with a beginning bankroll (at that time) of about $600; every contest I entered that month had my name in the top ten...many of which I won. It happens. Anybody who has been doing this for long enough will keenly recall their hot streaks. That said, I am awaiting the independent investigation run by the outside Law Firm (Greenberg-Traurig) before I cast any aspersions in the direction of DK and/or Ethan...based on what I've heard from my friends in the DFS community, Ethan has done nothing wrong (aside from the obvious mistake of posting his ownership article early) to merit the backlash.
The talk about how much DK/FD employees were winning on other sites was not surprising to me. FD/DK were not built overnight--their success is predicated on a great idea that was executed by people who were passionate about the game. And who is more passionate about the game than the guys playing said game? Nobody. The sites were savvy when they hired individuals who were/are strong DFS players because who could provide more insight into the needs and demands of this growing community? The players themselves. These players took on 'dream jobs' in the industry, where they were working for hot startups during the day and boosting their day income at night. This was never a 'chicken or egg' question regarding those players' success; most were winning players before they took jobs with FD/DK and continued that success thereafter. Imagine if you played poker at a high level and then decided to buy a house with a handful of other professional poker players--your level of play would only get better by proxy...I think a similar phenomenon occurred here. The numbers that were being thrown around ("DK employees have won 0.3% of the money paid out by FD") were misleading, as my understanding is that those were gross numbers over a long period of time; if you see that a figure about what a person has won on a commercial (or in their FD profile), you can generally multiply it by 10% (less, in most cases) to get an estimate of that person's profit.
Regarding the industry and its future...I am 100% certain that government regulation is coming. The only question(s) I still have is when and how it will arrive? On Wednesday, I urged some of my friends to pull some of their monies from their DFS accounts because I wasn't sure what was going to happen & DK (nor FD for that matter) was not getting in front of the media blitz; I thought they might be too late and that everything was going to be shut down, pending governmental review. To his credit, Jason Robins recognized the severity of the situation (a week late, IMO) and implemented the aforementioned third-party audit, while going on his own media campaign to defend DK, Ethan, and the industry, in general. I think his actions were not a moment too soon and probably saved a full-fledged shutdown of the industry (again JMO).
Do I think regulation is/was necessary? Largely, yes. I think the decision to allow scripts was poor. I think multi-entry above 0.5-1.0% of the total entries should be disallowed. I think there should be better definitions of how data is handled at these $1B companies. And I think there should be some mechanism(s) in place to protect newer players from being subject to the sharks at low level buy-ins. How this all happens and is eventually implemented is beyond my paygrade, but I fully expect most (all?) of it to happen by this time next year.
All of this is 100% my opinion, based on my personal relationships with some of the heavier hitters in the industry. I won't name names, but I've spoken with and G-chatted with many of the DFS players you know and the general consensus is that we/they want to continue playing this game that we all love, but with measures in place to try to clean up the image that has been created since the massive (over)advertising campaigns started in August.
-TnP
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
Thanks a ton, John. I expected something like that for a bunch of it and appreciate it all. Some was completely unexpected and even more appreciated, about scripts particularly. They need to do away with those and anything preferential.
A somewhat meaningless follow up question, but one I think must be generating some discussion: What are these employee/players going to choose. Playing or working in the industry?
A somewhat meaningless follow up question, but one I think must be generating some discussion: What are these employee/players going to choose. Playing or working in the industry?
Joe T
Footballguy
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
Personally if they are as good at dfs as everyone is saying, they would be better off cashing in now. Between the huge advertising costs, regulation coming, lawsuits, and dilution, I can't imagine that equity being worth that much.
The equity is probably in the form of options that haven't vested, so they can't cash in now.
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John Lee
Footballguy
Why would you say 'both?' ...just for the sake of being sensational? It's snarky comments like that that keep me out of this kind of discussion because they're without merit and simply to cast negative light on the industry.
If/when regulation arrives, those employees would likely be subject to felony prosecution if they were caught doing anything shady. After seeing what Ethan endured this week, I think it will be a long time before we see anybody even consider pushing that envelope.
The answer to your question, CC, is "it depends"...if the person is making $500K/year playing DFS, but only making $80K/year at FD, I think it makes sense for that person to leave and pursue the DFS thing. The majority, however, are profitable players who are supplementing their incomes at the sites, where they are presumably getting benefits (health insurance, retirement, and stock options)...for that 95%, I expect them to stay (including Ethan).
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
You need to look at it from the average Joe's point of view instead of defending your buddy before telling someone their opinion is without merit. DK/FD and Ethan himself chose to take advantages that others didn't have. No one made them choose to do so.
I agree with you that negative comments made without any basis add nothing to the conversation. But to assume that one person bad experience, potentially due to innocent mistake, will deter all others from pushing the envelope is naïve. We have seen in other regulated industries again and again people try to get away with things even after others have gone to prison.
While this may be the case, it hasn't been proven yet. DK/FD are denying it.
Personally I think it's more likely than not that some shady stuff has gone on, but none of us can say for sure. This will be investigated and it will come out eventually one way or another.
By cashing in now, I meant using their superior dfs skills to make a living playing dfs rather than waiting on the options to vest.
I'm not sold on the long term viability of this dfs model. The 10-12.5% just seems like to much to keep the fish around. Also as more pros get involved, the average player is going to struggle to be successful.
John Lee
Footballguy
What advantages did they take that others didn't have?? Name one. There has been zero proof that anything shady was done. If the independent investigation yields information to the contrary, then perhaps those types of comments are merited, but until that happens, I live in America, where folks are innocent until proven guilty.
Regarding my friendship with Ethan, I made it very clear that I don't know whether he's innocent or guilty (re-read my post), but I do know that nobody has come forth to say that he did anything outside of the scope of his job description. Until I hear otherwise, he's being unfairly typecast.
John Lee
Footballguy
Point taken...
...but to say 'both' is disingenuous. At present, I'd guesstimate that 75% of FD/DK employees play DFS at some level; by putting measures/laws into place that forbid them playing DFS, I think it's fair to say that less than 5% will try to skirt those rules (probably closer to 1%). And, to my point, using the exception, rather than the norm, to support one's stance is sensational, not rational.
Joe T
Footballguy
To say 'both' is not disingenuous. I disagree with you and am comfortable with that. What you dismiss as sensational, snarky, and irrational are perfectly normal to question. History proves that when there are exceptional returns it is absolutely necessary to question those results to make sure there is a level playing field for everyone. Not just the industry insiders.
Insider trading in the heavily regulated finance and banking industry happens. For years people claimed that online poker was fair and safe until it was discovered that users like Potripper, Steamroller, and many others had the ability to see opponents' hole cards. More software is stolen, hacked, and cheated everyday than is purchased. Those are just a few examples. DFS is not immune to cheating. This isn't sensational, this is reality.
In this case, we have an industry insider who just happens to work for one of the primary companies in question experiencing exceptional returns. It is basic common sense to question it and ask for basic accountability and audit practices. I'm sorry if this guy is your friend. But his results should absolutely be questioned and reviewed given his access to inside information.
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Willie Neslon
Footballguy
The issue is the public didn't realize employees who had access to protected data were allowed to play against them. Whether he used the data or not almost doesn't matter at this point. People feel like suckers. I think the outrage is justified even if it may be misdirected.
And let's not pretend that that's a bad outcome for DK/FD.
Speaking generally, the cost of government regulation to a corporation is usually a modest decrease in margins. The benefit of government regulation to the corporation is the construction of barriers to entry that will deter new entrants.
Thus most corporations pretend to fight against regulation, but net-net invite government regulation-- especially when they have a hand in how those regs are written.
The most fierce regulator is not the government, it is a level-playing field for competitors/new-entrants and DK/FD will be thrilled to invite the government to help keep new competitors out...despite what the headlines might read.
John Lee
Footballguy
My only concern about regulation is the cost being passed along to the user base. The margins for these DFS companies are already razor-thin, so I can't imagine them absorbing the costs of regulating the industry; instead, rake will rise and beating the game will become more difficult. As a guy who spends way too much time researching data and building lineups, I really don't want to make winning any more difficult than it currently is.
That said, I understand why it has to happen...I just don't want to pay for it.
I wouldn't be too concerned about rakes going up. As it is, it's inconceiveably high. If FD and DK weren't buying every ad space available in the universe, they could be profiting nicely at 5%. If the poker sites could work at a lower rake, dfs should be able too.
By the way, you're not supposed to use the term rake as that denotes this is gambling, not skill.
