Dillon Goes Off Tonight (2 Viewers)

[Macdaddy_2004]

Thanks to those who read the original thesis of the thread and actually read my posts. I felt like I had walked into the wrong part of the city for a while. I never said Dillon looked bad, just that his opportunities were very limited. Was he even targetted in the passing game once? Heck, I had 40 recpts for about 300 in my projections which accounted for an additional 70 FF pts. After last nite I would cut both those numbers in half and reduce my projections by about



35 pts

.

Thats the difference between being top 15 and top 25 y'know

 

[DangerMonkey]

I don't remeber a first and goal from the one.  They did have a first and goal from the ten, handed to Dillon for a yard then hit the TE for the TD.  Maybe I missed it?

Wasn't there a Pass Intereference in the endzone that gave them the ball really close? I thought Dillon lost like 5 yards on the carry, and then Banch scored.The play you refer to I think was at the 15 and Dillon got 7 yards...I'm looking over the play-by-play, I don't see the PI, but I know i was called during the game...anyone know what happened there?

Indianapolis Colts at 5:20 1-10-NE 33 (5:20) 32-E.James right end to NE 28 for 5 yards (95-R.Phifer).  2-5-NE 28 (4:46) (No Huddle) 32-E.James right end to NE 24 for 4 yards (75-V.Wilfork).  3-1-NE 24 (4:39) 33-D.Rhodes up the middle to NE 23 for 1 yard (54-T.Bruschi). R26 1-10-NE 23 (4:01) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete to 88-M.Harrison (38-T.Poole).  2-10-NE 23 (3:58) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete to 87-R.Wayne.   PENALTY on NE-22-A.Samuel, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at NE 23 - No Play. X27 1-1-NE 1 (3:51) 32-E.James left guard to NE 1 for no gain (26-E.Wilson). FUMBLES (26-E.Wilson), RECOVERED by NE-75-V.Wilfork at NE 1. 75-V.Wilfork to NE 1 for no gain (44-D.Clark).

Pass interference was on NE and Edge got the ball and coughed it up (again)

 

[Chaz]

Not that I'm thrilled with Dillon's points last night, but I am hopeful for a solid campaign, with a few REALLY good games for the following reasons:1. He is the featured back.2. This is a very good offense. The more NE has the ball, the better his chances for getting an opportunity, etc...3. He is a very good player.I'm not sure what more I could ask for. I just feel that talent + opportunity alone should get him 8/1200 at a MINIMUM.

 

[gigantor]

Some of you guys think Dillon looked good? Are you kidding me? Take the blinders off. He didn't show any burst in that game. He lookes like a 30+ RB on the downside of his career. His yards/carry was so good because of one thing: NE was extremely successfull with the spread. This made the D adjust so once Dillon got in the game it was a good matchup to run the ball. Also it was one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. He had huge holes. Don't expect that every week. The long run? Big deal. Doss was out. His backup missed the tackle. The only thing that he showed on that run is he still has a jackhammer for a stiff arm. For years he had the best stiff arm in the NFL. You don't lose that with age. The hole on the long run was huge. A guy like Fred Taylor, Duece or even Tiki Barber would have taken that the whole way for a TD. Dillon looked slow running through that hole. He had no chance at all of taking that for a TD. This is as good as it gets for Dillon owners. 6-8 points a week sounds about right.

Who pissed in this alias' cheerios?

no kidding. Dillon looked very good last night, as did Edge. what's the big deal?

 

[GoingFor2]

I'll share this perspective, based not on the stats but on what I watched:After breaking through a hole, Dillon seemed to anticipate being tackled on most of his runs. It's almost as if his legs would stop moving and he began to turn and go down before the hit was made. Just wondering if I was seeing things, or if anyone else might have noticed this?

 

[mitman]

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[Tau837]

Posts of mine from Player Spotlight: Corey Dillon, RB, New England Patriots:

They [the Pats] ran 473 times to be exact [last season]. WRs had 9 of those carries and QBs had 43. So they gave the RBs around 421 carries (~26 per game). Compare that to the number of passes (538 attempts = ~34 per game).

But you may say, now that they have Dillon they will run more. Maybe. But consider that in 2001, the year people point back to as a recent successful rushing season, the Pats again had exactly 473 rushing attempts. 41 were by QBs and 16 by WRs. Almost a mirror image of last season. So I doubt the RB carries are going to go up much.

Now consider that they have a few other backs who will likely get enough carries to account for 5+ per game. How many are left for Dillon? Then note that he won't likely be much of a factor in the passing game. Then note that the Pats like to throw in the red zone.

Hey, if you want to place your confidence in Dillon, be my guest.

Okay, let's use your "conservative" numbers:

421 carries by all RB's, 5 per game for RB's other than CD

that leaves "only" 341 carries for CD

I seriously doubt Dillon will carry the ball 341 times. Look at his career numbers:
+--------------------------+-------------------------+ | Rushing | Receiving |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1997 cin | 16 | 233 1129 4.8 10 | 27 259 9.6 0 || 1998 cin | 15 | 262 1130 4.3 4 | 28 178 6.4 1 || 1999 cin | 15 | 263 1200 4.6 5 | 31 290 9.4 1 || 2000 cin | 16 | 315 1435 4.6 7 | 18 158 8.8 0 || 2001 cin | 16 | 340 1315 3.9 10 | 34 228 6.7 3 || 2002 cin | 16 | 314 1311 4.2 7 | 43 298 6.9 0 || 2003 cin | 13 | 138 541 3.9 2 | 11 71 6.5 0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| TOTAL | 107 | 1865 8061 4.3 45 | 192 1482 7.7 5 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+I think the 314-315 totals look like a more reasonable ceiling, especially given that he is almost 30 [turns 30 in October] and entering his 8th season... he is past his peak.People have drawn comparisons between the Patriots under BB with Dillon to the Patriots under BB with Antowain Smith in 2001. Smith only had 287 carries in 16 games in 2001.

315 carries at 4.0 ypc = 1260 rushing yards. And even this obviously requires him to play 16 games.

with his carrer average of 4.3, that comes to 1466 yds

Using his career ypc of 4.3 seems optimistic. Dillon himself has averaged under 4.0 ypc in 2 of the past 3 seasons; his collective average over the past 3 seasons is right at 4.0 ypc.Furthermore, the Patriots averaged 3.4 ypc last season as a team (and 3.8 ypc the two seasons before that). IMO 4.0 is the ceiling for a reasonable prediction.

say 10 tds...

Based on what? Dillon has reached 10 TDs only 2 times in 7 seasons: 13 in 2001 and 10 all the way back in 1997. His other 5 season totals have been 5, 6, 7, 7, and 2. He has averaged less than 7.5 TDs per 16 games in his career.

...and a couple hundred yds receiving

With Faulk on the team, I seriously doubt Dillon gets more than 25 catches. That will likely leave him at less than 200 yards receiving. I'm willing to assume 20/150/0.

I'll take that out of any RB2

I'm looking at 1410 total yards and 7 TDs as his reasonable upside. That's 183 fantasy points, which would have been good enough for 16th last season. Those numbers are indeed good RB2 numbers... except for the fact that he will probably be drafted in the 10-15 range, meaning he will have a hard time earning his draft position.

Check out the other thread for the exact context... but you get my drift.After last night, I am willing to consider bumping up his ypc a bit, though I suspect many teams will defend the run better than the Colts did last night... or at least won't give up a 30+ yard run to Dillon. On the other hand, if anything, it appears that I was generous in my receiving projections.

I think Dillon will be fortunate to finish in the top 20, and top 15 is a real stretch.

 

[gigantor]

Posts of mine from Player Spotlight: Corey Dillon, RB, New England Patriots:

They [the Pats] ran 473 times to be exact [last season]. WRs had 9 of those carries and QBs had 43. So they gave the RBs around 421 carries (~26 per game). Compare that to the number of passes (538 attempts = ~34 per game).

But you may say, now that they have Dillon they will run more. Maybe. But consider that in 2001, the year people point back to as a recent successful rushing season, the Pats again had exactly 473 rushing attempts. 41 were by QBs and 16 by WRs. Almost a mirror image of last season. So I doubt the RB carries are going to go up much.

Now consider that they have a few other backs who will likely get enough carries to account for 5+ per game. How many are left for Dillon? Then note that he won't likely be much of a factor in the passing game. Then note that the Pats like to throw in the red zone.

Hey, if you want to place your confidence in Dillon, be my guest.

Okay, let's use your "conservative" numbers:

421 carries by all RB's, 5 per game for RB's other than CD

that leaves "only"  341 carries for CD

I seriously doubt Dillon will carry the ball 341 times. Look at his career numbers:
                +--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1997 cin |  16 |   233   1129    4.8   10 |    27    259   9.6    0 || 1998 cin |  15 |   262   1130    4.3    4 |    28    178   6.4    1 || 1999 cin |  15 |   263   1200    4.6    5 |    31    290   9.4    1 || 2000 cin |  16 |   315   1435    4.6    7 |    18    158   8.8    0 || 2001 cin |  16 |   340   1315    3.9   10 |    34    228   6.7    3 || 2002 cin |  16 |   314   1311    4.2    7 |    43    298   6.9    0 || 2003 cin |  13 |   138    541    3.9    2 |    11     71   6.5    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   | 107 |  1865   8061    4.3   45 |   192   1482   7.7    5 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+I think the 314-315 totals look like a more reasonable ceiling, especially given that he is almost 30 [turns 30 in October] and entering his 8th season... he is past his peak.People have drawn comparisons between the Patriots under BB with Dillon to the Patriots under BB with Antowain Smith in 2001. Smith only had 287 carries in 16 games in 2001.

315 carries at 4.0 ypc = 1260 rushing yards. And even this obviously requires him to play 16 games.

with his carrer average of 4.3, that comes to 1466 yds

Using his career ypc of 4.3 seems optimistic. Dillon himself has averaged under 4.0 ypc in 2 of the past 3 seasons; his collective average over the past 3 seasons is right at 4.0 ypc.Furthermore, the Patriots averaged 3.4 ypc last season as a team (and 3.8 ypc the two seasons before that). IMO 4.0 is the ceiling for a reasonable prediction.

say 10 tds...

Based on what? Dillon has reached 10 TDs only 2 times in 7 seasons: 13 in 2001 and 10 all the way back in 1997. His other 5 season totals have been 5, 6, 7, 7, and 2. He has averaged less than 7.5 TDs per 16 games in his career.

...and a couple hundred yds receiving

With Faulk on the team, I seriously doubt Dillon gets more than 25 catches. That will likely leave him at less than 200 yards receiving. I'm willing to assume 20/150/0.

I'll take that out of any RB2

I'm looking at 1410 total yards and 7 TDs as his reasonable upside. That's 183 fantasy points, which would have been good enough for 16th last season. Those numbers are indeed good RB2 numbers... except for the fact that he will probably be drafted in the 10-15 range, meaning he will have a hard time earning his draft position.

Check out the other thread for the exact context... but you get my drift.After last night, I am willing to consider bumping up his ypc a bit, though I suspect many teams will defend the run better than the Colts did last night... or at least won't give up a 30+ yard run to Dillon. On the other hand, if anything, it appears that I was generous in my receiving projections.

I think Dillon will be fortunate to finish in the top 20, and top 15 is a real stretch.

please list the other 20 guys that will finish ahead of Dillon

 

[Wadsworth]

Very good stuff Just Win Baby. Your projections seem very realistic and I think you make a strong case for Dillon not being a 10-15 pick. But those numbers don't look bad for 16-20 pick. I would agree with what Switz said earlier, that while the year end numbers might not be bad he's likely to have a few big games and be awful in others. A lot of the dispute about Dillon stems from differint expectations. I never expected him to approach top 10 numbers and was encouraged by his play on Thursday inspite of limited carries. I was surprised to come to these boards and see people knocking him. And confused by suggestions that 15 touches per game was all he could expect for the season. I'm right back where I was when I started on Dillon. Expecting 1200-1400 total yards and 7-8 total TD's. Good solid RB2 numbers.

 

[Big Score]

please list the other 20 guys that will finish ahead of Dillon 

OK. I'll take that challenge:(1) Priest Holmes

(2) LT2

(3) Ahman Green

(4) Clinton Portis

(5) D. McAllister

(6) Edge

(7) Jamal Lewis

(8) Marshall Faulk

(9) Dom Davis

(10) Rudi Johnson

(11) Tyronne Wheatley

(12) Lee Suggs

(13) Q. Griffin

(14) Brian Westbrook

(15) Warrick Dunn

(16) Kevin Jones

(17) Julius Jones

(18) Kevin Barlow

(19) Fred Taylor

(20) D. Staley

(21) Alexander

Definitely not in that order, but I think all those guys will finish ahead of Dillon yardage wise for the year, barring injury.

Edit: To add Alexander & barring injury

 

[SCT]

please list the other 20 guys that will finish ahead of Dillon 

OK. I'll take that challenge:(1) Priest Holmes(2) LT2(3) Ahman Green(4) Clinton Portis(5) D. McAllister(6) Edge(7) Jamal Lewis(8) Marshall Faulk(9) Dom Davis(10) Rudi Johnson(11) Tyronne Wheatley(12) Lee Suggs(13) Q. Griffin(14) Brian Westbrook(15) Warrick Dunn(16) Kevin Jones(17) Julius Jones(18) Kevin Barlow(19) Fred Taylor(20) D. StaleyDefinitely not in that order, but I think all those guys will finish ahead of Dillon yardage wise for the year.

That top 20 list doesn't even include Alexander neither! So there!

 

[Big Score]

That top 20 list doesn't even include Alexander neither! So there!

Doh! :X Brain fart to the N'th degree. He shoulda been in there. My bad! :( But, that's now 21 RB's who will have more yards than Dillon at the end of the year.I inadvertently went one better

 

[gigantor]

please list the other 20 guys that will finish ahead of Dillon

OK. I'll take that challenge:(1) Priest Holmes(2) LT2(3) Ahman Green(4) Clinton Portis(5) D. McAllister(6) Edge(7) Jamal Lewis(8) Marshall Faulk(9) Dom Davis(10) Rudi Johnson(11) Tyronne Wheatley(12) Lee Suggs(13) Q. Griffin(14) Brian Westbrook(15) Warrick Dunn(16) Kevin Jones(17) Julius Jones(18) Kevin Barlow(19) Fred Taylor(20) D. StaleyDefinitely not in that order, but I think all those guys will finish ahead of Dillon yardage wise for the year.

I like him more than at least 9 other guys on that list. but to each his own.good luck !

 

[Family Matters]

Corey Dillon is going to go off tonight. I have a buddy willing to bet me $200 that Fred Taylor will have a bigger game against Buffalo on Sunday. No way. Dillon tears up the Colts tonight, or at least gets into the zone a few times.I think Taylor is overrated. Dillon will be better than Freddie this weekend.Fact.

Not sure I agree Taylor is overrated. Except for the lack of TD's he is a top back. As for Dillon, I think he is overrated in high performance and PPR leagues. FF not withstanding, he's a solid RB and will help NE. Some advice I'll offer is you should never bet Dillon to outperform Freddie. You'll lose far more than you'll win.My biggest concern for Dillon owners this ear is that NE won't use him enough or consistently. I think he was underutilized against Indy. Indy is soft in the middles and be dominated by good rushing teams. NE missed a great opportunity to use him more. This why I did not draft him.

 

[Zilly QB]

Just a guess, but I don't think the Patriots game planned for Dillon. I don't think they knew what they had. I watched the game and I was very impressed with the talent that he displayed. Quick to the hole, elusive, and powerful. I'm expecting that Weis will be looking at the game tape and see more opportunity to include Dillon in future weeks offensive schemes.Again, just my guess.

 

[LordHusker]

Good guess!

 

[gigantor]

oh yea, Dillon is awful.

 

[LordHusker]

Any more hand wringers about Dillon? I noticed in the Top 200 that Dillon keeps inching up. Apparently, FBG's thinks he's going to have a good year.

 

[-OZ-]

Any more hand wringers about Dillon? I noticed in the Top 200 that Dillon keeps inching up. Apparently, FBG's thinks he's going to have a good year.

I sure hope so, having just acquired him.IMO he'll be among the most consistent RBs, but won't have the huge games in NE that he did in Cincy. Over the course of the season, I'm expecting him to finish as a top 10 RB (#18 right now in PPG).