Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
More than the second round pick, obviously...
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Dillon Traded! (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter gildawg
- Start date
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
I don't know how anyone can think both teams didn't make out well here.The Bengals are a young team needing depth. They've added some picks and some players and look to be on the up and up.The Patriots are a team that doesn't NEED anything, other then the good health and good fortune that makes 1 team a year a Champion. Dillon will be useful for the next 2 years. Maybe 3. The 2nd rounder allows the Bengals to add an impact player who can be with their young team for a while.WHats not to like?Colin
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Insoxicated
Do you have any information to back it up aside from the guy's first injury marred season last year? Previous 3 years:315 Carries - 1435 Yards - 4.6YPC - 7 TD340 Carries - 1315 Yards - 3.9YPC - 10 TD315 Carries - 1311 Yards - 4.2YPC - 7 TDDillon will be turning 30 this year, and that is a little unnerving...but take away last season (where he still managed 3.9YPC while playing hurt) and I think Dillon still has a 1100-1300 Yard season in him under Belicheck.
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Chase, good points to be sure, but you realize of course that in 2001 Brady was a newbie and unexpected starter and the team kept the playbook very conservative for him. And as I noted, in 2001 and 2003, the Pats had the EXACT SAME number of carries (473), the only difference being that the Pats were quite more effective and prolific as passer in 2003.Even if you give Dillon credit for 20 carries per game, you're looking at 320 carries on the season. The Pats haven't averaged better than 3.82 per carry over the last 3 years, so if you want to make the case that Dillon is significantly better than their existing RB attack, and bump that up to 4.2 (again, which would be a multi year high for Dillon), you're looking at 1,350 yards rushing. Combine that (which I view as his maximum upside as a runner) with admittedly limited projected production as a receiving option combined with a probably single digit TD expectation, Dillon still doesn't project to much better than a high RB2.
SammyJankis
Footballguy
I just think that every league has a guy that's pitched the "Corey Dillon is the greatest running back in the league and if he can just get off the Bengals, watch him explode." argument. We're talking about his value being a competent RB2, but if you think you're going to draft him as an RB2, you better think again. Because its a good story, we're going to hear a lot about Dillon to the Pats this offseason. Getting a lot of PR always inflates players values, because the guppies in your league are going to want to draft the guy they hear a lot about it.And dynasty/keeper leagues? Anybody that's been sitting on Dillon has been waiting years for this. If the Dillon owner in your league is even willing to talk deal, the asking price is going to be sky high.And for what? A 29 year old RB, that's not a great receiver, moving to a team that scores most of its TDs through the air? I'll pass.Dillon will have value, but I'd bet dollars to donuts someone in your league is going to overpay for him. Don't be that guy.
Dillon in 2002 - 1609 tot yds - 7 TDsDillon in 2001 - 1543 tot yds - 13 TDsDefine 'disappointing' and 'awhile'.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
I probably should have said that I could forsee it happning--not that it's likely. And certainly you don't want to draft based on what MIGHT happen. I'm just saying the potential is there for Belichick to use Dillon the way Miami used Ricky and Carolina used Davis the first years they were there. It wouldn't surprise me one bit. Hey, I wouldn't put it past Belichick to run more to keep Brady's stats down come contract negotiation time. Anything is possible with him.For my money I'll stay away from Dillon (most likely, in April--subject to change of course). If he's there in the third round though I'd definitely give him a long look. There's a lot of boom/bust in Dillon IMO.
buster c
Footballguy
there is a body of evidence (sorry, I'm not going to provide any links) that shows that as a RB approaches 30, he starts to wind down. couple that with the fact that he was basically ineffective last year, and what we have here is a guy whose best years are behind him. look at all those carries you reference. that translates to high mileage. as someone said, he may be effective for the team in a defined role, but for fantasy purposes, he'll be way overvalued
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Actually, they only added ONE pick, which, in the second round, is far from a guarantee on being the impact player you project.So, that's what I don't like. They lost a top RB, for a question mark. Sure, if they choose wisely, it could pay off.But, the risk (none, imo, for the Pats) doesn't equal the reward for the Bengals (not a sure thing).
Workhorse
Footballguy
Good analysis. And don't forget that Brady is at his best when running play-action. If a team has to respect the run more now that the Pats have a more consistent running threat, look for some bigger numbers for the vertical passing attack. I'd probably bump Bethel Johnson into a solid late-round/sleeper pick for the '04 season. He's could be an even bigger deep threat now.
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Insoxicated
Amazing...first the arguement was that as a RB move into his 30s...now it's as he approaches 30 ?
What's next...."in sight of 30?" I remember laughing at all the people making the same arguements about Priest Holmes last year.... and while Dillon is no Holmes, he was a productive back for many years leading up to last season. He's also coming off a much less serious injury and moving from a situation he hated into a situation that could be exactly what he was looking for...a team wich a chance to win it all. If you're basing your arguement solely on the fact that the guy is 29 years old then I don't really see any point in contining this debate as you're not really bringing anything to the table. Dillon, barring injury, is all but a lock to move past 1000 yards and 5-6 TDS....and should move past 1200 / 7-8 TD in the Pat's system....a pretty good RB2.
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Both of their drafting stock just went up though. As if the Pats need any more help to get back to the playoffs. 
Jason Wood
Zoo York
Icon,I agree with that. Unfortunately, I also believe that at least one or two owners in every league will see 1400+ and 10+ TDs, and will therefore draft him higher than a "good RB2" should go, thus, Dillon could well end up in the "overvalued" camp when all is said and done. Time will tell.
well, they did also get a compensatory 3rd round pick for losing Takeo Spikes, and a 4th round pick from the Broncos in the O'Neal trade. So, they now have an extra pick in rounds 2, 3, and 4.They should have no problem adding a cheaper backup RB with one of those picks to replace Dillon, who also won't have the attitude problems that he had.The Pats took on a sizable contract and will be paying Dillon nearly $3M/year or so (I think that's about right, no link) so the move is not without risk.Besides, if 2nd round picks were as worthless as you suggest, teams would be much more willing to trade them for proven players. However, that is not really the case.The cap space the Bengals save by making this trade also allows them to be active players in the post-June 1st free agency period.
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Footballhead
WWPRD?
Awwwww ... I wanted to be the first one to post Dillon got traded!Damn, Damn Damn 
buster c
Footballguy
you can argue semantics all you want, but why don't you "bring to the table" some evidence of quality production from a RB who has this many miles on his odometerhttp://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/DillCo00.htmI'll bet that more start to wither away then pop for big numbers,Apr 19 2004, 05:06 PM] Amazing...first the arguement was that as a RB move into his 30s...now it's as he approaches 30 ?
buster c
Footballguy
list of backs with more career carries than DillonE Smith 4142 W Payton 3838*J Bettis 3119 B Sanders 3062 M Allen 3022 E Dickerson 2996 F Harris 2949 T Dorsett 2936*C Martin 2927 J Riggins 2916 T Thomas 2877*E George 2733 R Watters 2622*M Faulk 2576 O Anderson 2562 O Simpson 2404 J Brown 2359 E Campbell 2187 T Allen 2152 E Byner 2095 R Craig 1991 G Riggs 1989 H Walker 1954 J Taylor 1941 L Csonka 1891that's 25 backs in the history of the NFL (per the website I linked you to above).
CanadianNFLJunkie
Footballguy
I wonder though, do the Pats STILL draft a RB, say round 3-4?? Still not much depth on the team.
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Insoxicated
I'm not arguing semantics...I'm posting raw numbers. The guy's statistics speak for themselves....listen to everyone else in this thread....I am not alone in my opinion. The guy has played 6 full seasons....in all of those seasons but ONE he was in the top 10 in the league in yards. He's got a lot of carries but to assume the guy will go from a top 10 yardage producer to bum in one year is a bit crazy....sorry. You're also arguing like I'm expecting this guy to be the second coming of Priest Holmes....I'm projecting the guy to approach the numbers he consistently produced in Cincy (~1200-1300 yards rushing) and be an AVG to Above AVG RB2 and likely finish in the top 15-20 of RBs this year. What are your projections for him next year? I'm not even so sure we're that far apart on our numbers...unless you're in the 700-800YDS/4TDs camp :rotflmao: I stand by my projection range ...1100-1300 Yards and 6-8 TDs
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Anyone care to make the argument that this is going to backfire on the Patriots, from a football perspective (not FF)?
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Come on, dude...don't twist my words. I did not say worthless, and I even alluded to the fact it could pay off, but only with the right selection.You confuse worthless with riskless. A second round pick has risk...and you know it.
SammyJankis
Footballguy
When the Bengals draft a RB in the first couple of rounds you can probably slide him right back down again.
What is being lost in all of this is that in past years the bengals would have just cut him and been done with the mess. Marvin actually got something for a player that was not going to see any action with the Bengals this year. Whether the pick pans out or not is irrelevant. Amazing what a coach who has some semblance of knowing what he is doing can do for a franchise.
Go Bengals
Go Bengals
Native
Footballguy
LOL here is Dillons injury report from last season:11/12/2003 Doubtful Groin 11/05/2003 Questionable Groin 10/29/2003 Questionable Groin 10/22/2003 Probable Groin 10/15/2003 Questionable Groin 10/01/2003 Questionable Groin 09/28/2003 Day-to-day Groin 09/24/2003 Probable Groin 09/21/2003 Day-to-day Strained left groin 09/17/2003 Probable Knee 09/14/2003 Day-to-day Right kneeRegardless of these nagging injuries, I dont think we will see Corey Dillon running for 1400 yards again anytime soon. He may break 1000 based solely on the number of carries that he will get in NE, but I cant see a RB with so many career touches holding up for much longer. Anyone else see him lasting more than two more years in NE?
Couch Potato
Footballguy
Mike Brown is the brightest mind in the NFL today. 
:wacko: Or maybe he's getting a little help these days. 
:wacko: Or maybe he's getting a little help these days. 
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
My thoughts exactly.Weis put together a short-pass dink and dunk offense because that's what his personnel were best suited to. Brady can't throw long, so vertical passes are out. ASmith and KFaulk are worse than mediocre, so a power running game is out. But they do have a qb who can hit recievers consistently on short routes, so that's the direction their offense went in.With Dillon, I think that changes somewhat to a much more pronounced running game. I still don't see a lot of deep passes (Brady will be much better able to sell play-action but he's still too inaccurate for that to be a viable threat), but there's no way that adding Dillon doesn't significantly alter their run-pass ratio. This was a very good trade for both teams. Cin gets something (2nd rounder) for nothing (a guy who was likely being released anyway). NE got a dynamic runner who if his head's screwed on straight should be orders of magnitude better than what they had at that position.
David Dodds
Administrator
I love this move for both teams. Cincy got rid of their headache, saved cap space and got a 2nd round pick after only Oakland seemed interested (and were offering a 3rd rounder). People finding fault with the Bengals here are crazy. They got more than he was worth to every other NFL team. New England was one-upped in my opinion when Denver moved to #17. They did not think the RB they wanted would be left, so they used just a #56 to grab someone that could be a real steal. I think everyone is right on predicting 1350 total yards (not much of a receiving threat) and probably 6-8 TDS. That puts him around RB11-RB14 likely. The Patriots also like Kevin Faulk, but they know he is not an everyday back. But he could fill in as the starter for a few games should Dillon get dinged.The biggest unknowns... Is Dillon a headcase?....Does Dillon have too many miles on those legs already?My takes - 1. Dillon complained because a lot because he was on the Bengals. Before Marvin Lewis it was an awful place to be. The fact that Rudi Johnson played well last year while Dillon struggled just compounded this bad relationship. It was clear though that Dillon needed new scenary. Not exactly sure what motivates him, but he does enter a team where he won't be needed to do all of the work. I think that bodes well for his attitude next season.2. I think Dillon does have a lot of mileage, but I think the Pats see this as a 2 year fix maximum. They have a great team now and if healthy, he will be an upgrade over Antowain Smith for sure.Overall grades here:Cincy - A. They could not have gotten more. Oakland was the only other team bidding and they weren't gong to offer more than the third they did.New England - A-. They possibly overpaid slightly and took on a $3M salary, but they can now breath easy and draft value with their two first round picks. they will be a better team the next few years because of this trade so it's hard to critical.
amnesiac
beer is good
Bingo. It's possible he really screwed up his groin muscles, which do linger. But I personally think he was hacked off going into the season, and decided to sit the bench and collect the checks. It could have just as easily been a shoulder stinger or an ingrown toenail. The good news is that if he really was injured, it's just a pulled muscle, and with proper rehab, he should be 100% going into next season. Also, a year off from the week to week pounding that an NFL back takes probably helped as well. IMHO, say what you want about NE's offense, or Dillon's talents, but I don't think his health is really an issue.
Maggot Brain
Footballguy
Most definitely true. Just threw a quick feeler out to a fellow owner in a keeper league who's a big NE fan. Offered him Dillon and Horn for Randy Moss-he jumped it like a true homer
I've got Ahman, Rudi, and Shipp in my stable and can only keep 3 total keepers, so this was a no brainer offer in my opinion, with all the joy-joy feelings going throughout Pats Land. As it is, I expect Dillon to perform about on par with A. Smith's best years in NE. He'll definitely improve on last year's disappointment, but no way does he approach, for example, the kind of production that Carolina got from Stephen Davis. I honestly believe that's what Belichick and NE is hoping for, but Dillon's got a lot more mileage on him than Davis had.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Here's your answer.E Smith 3W Payton 3B Sanders 1F Harris 1T Dorsett 2C Martin 1J Riggins 3T Thomas 1E George 1R Watters 2O Anderson 1H Walker 1That's twenty 1,000 yard seasons for RB 30+ out of the 25 RB originally listed. But Dillon is currently only 28.
Sinrman
Footballguy
Not gonna read all the replies... but overall, this is an EXCELLENT move by the Pats. Giving up one of their TWO 2nd rounders for Dillon is a great, great move by them. Sure, he's disgruntled and a bit of a headcase. However, he's out of Cinncy for good. He's on a Super Bowl-caliber team with a solid team on both sides of the ball. I don't expect 2,000 yard, 20 TD seasons from Dillon, but he could be a nice surprise there.This is a HUGE boost for NE, I think. I'm starting to rethink my thoughts on the possibility of a NE dynasty...
JetsJetsJets
Footballguy
I have had Dillon for years in a keeper league. Every year I think - this is it. Well... I am actually a bit concerned here. I can see Dillon getting yards and attempts, but I think they may go to someone else at the goal line.With James and J. Lewis as my starters, Dillon will still be kept as a number 3 for me.
railman305
Footballguy
ya no way id take dillion in 2nd rd. at all, way to early for me, rather get a top WR then him
Spike
Footballguy
Whether Dillon would have been a June 1 casualty or not, I feel the Pats jumped the gun here.FF aside, the Pats spent a 2nd rounder for a guy that most felt should have only been worth a 3rd rounder.
We spout about value all the time for our FFL picks, well it looks like the Pats just took Marcel Shipp in the 2nd round.
He may perform very well, it's just that they gave up more than the market was set at.
Edited to add that now that Dillon is in the fold, I would be shocked if Mewelde Moore isn't picked by the Pats this coming weekend.
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warhawk511
Footballguy
its a decent trade for NE. they probably only did it because of the extra drafts picks they had early on. as a betting man i'd say he would make more of an impact this year than a rookie they could have drafted at that pick. at the very worst he doesnt pan out and could revisit that position next year and since they are so solid all over he place and along with the extra draft picks this year to add extra depth, they are sitting pretty good. though i still think Dillon is a jerk.
Wildman
Footballguy
This is a terrific move for both clubs!We can talk all we want about Dillon as a malcontent, but from a business standpoint it has no factor.The Bengals sucked for so long that unless he was the equivalent of football's patron saint--Walter Payton--Dillon was bound to develop a bad attitude with a team that fostered such a negative environment through it's lackluster ownership, management, and coaches. Someone tell me that I'm wrong that at least 90% of the players--although professionals--wouldn't become malcontents after so many years as the go to guy on a hapless team! Shoot, most people working 9-5 jobs aren't apt to look at changes with an open mind after several years of inadequacy in the workplace. Am I excusing it? No. Do I understand why it happens and not condemn the man for the rest of his career for it? No--the man needs a change. He took a classes route to do it, but he was already too jaded to stick with it. The Bengal's line was decent this year, but it had as much to do with the chemistry between Johnson, Warrick, and Kitna as it did the maturation of the blocking unit. The year before, Kitna and Johnson were seen yelling at each other on the sideline due to miscommunications on routes. Warrick was bigger, slower, and less of a student of the game. Kitna had 2-3 seconds to make the read and throw it, but his WRs didn't run discplined routes--that kills an O-line and QB. How soon we forget that Marshall Faulk criticized his entire offensive line the year before the Colts drafted Manning. Faulk was seen as a malcontent that had "temporarily shaped up" for a year before getting traded to the Rams. Ricky Williams criticized his teammates and coaching staff in New Orleans. If Emmitt Smith played on the Bengals during his career, I doubt very seriously--based on the odds--that he wouldn't at least gripe to the media once in awhile about how sorry a state the Bengals are in and that he'd want to play for a winner. Especially when the media asks him over and over and over and over again "don't you want to play for a winner?"This is Dillon's last chance. He's been handed the situation he always wanted on a silver platter--to be the ground attack for not only a proven winner, but a possible salary cap dynasty in the NFL! If he screws this up, his career is effectively over because no GM in their right mind is going to take a chance on a guy who can't keep it together in a great situation. Belicheck, Pioli, Dillon, and Dillon's poor agent (or maybe his agent has gotten what he deserves, who knows) all know that this is a no-risk situation for the Pats with at least a 2-3 year reward. As a Dillon owner in one dynasty league, I don't see him as a top 10 back--although very capable--he's a solid #2 RB worth 1000-1200 yards and 8-12 Tds. I'm sure he'll still have bouts of inconsistency, but the AFC EAST isn't the greatest division against the run. Miami can be run on and the Jets aren't getting any better for at least another year--at least in comparison to Baltimore and Pittsburgh. A healthy Dillon is a safe #2. He could wind up a devastating #1, ala Stephen Davis, because he has more physical talent as a runner. What made Davis a viable #1 option heading into the preseason was his workmanlike attitude. Dillon is still a wildcard less for his attitude and more for his years as a punishing back with at best, a poor to promising line in front of him.
suspected
Footballguy
Look at the overall pick number offered, not the round. It's misleading to compare Oakland's third round pick to NE's because they pick at opposite ends of the draft.Oakland offered its 3rd pick (#67) overall, CIN wanted more. The Pats pick in round 3 is #95 overall, surely CIN would not want that. The Pats do have #56 and #63 in round 2. By offering #56 the Pats are not improving upon the Raiders offer by a whole round, but by 11 picks or about 1/3 round.
harrison74
Footballguy
In the Pats system, Dillon is not going to be expected to carry the weight of the world here. The Pats offense is predicated on short rhythm passing. Kevin Faulk is a terrific 3rd down receiving back, and his role wont change much. Dillon will assume Ant Smiths role and get 20-25% more carries than Smith. The thing the {ats do so well on offense is they keep possesion of the ball for long stretches of time. The short passing game and marching down the field wont change, why would it?
bostonfred2
Footballguy
Random thoughts to add:The Patriots like to run when it gets cold. They play the Bengals at home, the Dolphins in Miami, the Jets in New Jersey, and the 9ers at home in weeks 14-17. That's 3 out of 4 games in the cold, although the Miami game in week 15 might not be a good fantasy matchup. I have no idea why people are saying Dillon won't get TDs. The Patriots have tried with limited success to run on the goal line for years, but only had success when Brady threw it in. Dillon hasn't gotten a lot of TDs when he was surrounded by below average offensive talent, and was hurt the only year he was on a decent offense. Now the Patriots have a goal line threat, and Dillon has a passing game.I have no illusions that Dillon is the end-all, be-all answer, nor do I think New England does. The reason the Patriots went after Dillon now is that the ease of getting a first round running back decreased three times in the last week (once when Denver traded up, once when Philly and other teams started driving up the cost of SF's pick, and once today when Clarett was ruled ineligible). There's no guarantee they think Dillon's the guy; they just didn't want to be the last team standing without a running back when the music stopped. I wouldn't be surprised to see them take another back as early as the late second. Dillon's going to be on a lot of winning teams if he slips to the end of the second round. I'd gladly start the season with a consensus top 5 running back in the first, then Dillon, and then my choice of the second tier of WRs.For everyone who thinks the Patriots overpaid or that the Bengals got a good deal: the Patriots trade the 56th pick in the draft, one of the last picks in the second. The Raiders had previously offered the 65th pick, one of the first picks in the third. Not a huge difference, and quite a scoop by the Patriots to come in just a little higher than the next best offer.
