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Discrepancies between Good WRs and the QB throwing to them and Bad WRs with good QBs in Rankings... (1 Viewer)

Gatorman

Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
Ok, so this is an offshoot of the Daniel Jones / Daboll / Giant WR thread

There are some things that add up, and some that don't in terms of Bad (ish) QBs with good WRs and Good QBs with average WRs so I wanted some opinions.

Examples:
Tua (Average QB), but he has Tyreek and Waddle. If you think those two WRs are gold, why low on Tua?
Jameis Winston: same thing in terms of not a lot of hype for him, but he has three solid WRs to throw to.
Zach Wilson and his Trio of WRs.

(Carr is getting a bump bc of DeVante. Why not the three above?)

other example:
Rodgers and his WRs. Rodgers taking a hit in ADP but he is back to back MVP and his WR room is not that talented.

Again, some of these things just do not add up. It is easy to say Russ + Jeudy + Sutton = gold but there seems to be a market inefficiency in the above examples that may be worth exploiting.

Thoughts?
 

HippieJuice

Footballguy
Because most believe Miami and New Orleans are going to be more run heavy and ball control based on coordinators. It's all about opportunity and targets. No one thinks Jameis or Tua are going to be let loose slinging the rock around.
 

Gatorman

Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
Because most believe Miami and New Orleans are going to be more run heavy and ball control based on coordinators. It's all about opportunity and targets. No one thinks Jameis or Tua are going to be let loose slinging the rock around.
Fair, but then why are the ADPs of Rodgers WRs so low (and of Rodgers himself?). Some of it is obviously who will be "the guy" but does anyone think Rodgers regresses to QB11 (ADP)
 

Bri

Footballguy
There's a lot here.
Daniel Jones has had WRs running bad routes, questionable coaching, and questionable throws while not having a good running game or line. He hasn't "put it altogether" in the NFL yet- is it him or the suspect situation? Everything with NYG is a guess.

Tua is very talented. He replaced Mariota as the darling Hawaii QB and people were saying he's better. He was better than Jalen and was an excellent college QB. He was many draft folks predicted bust. They want that narrative to come true. Miami coaching has been a topic in the news as well as them trading players for picks. So does he stink or is he talented? Have they had a good team around him or is this the first one? Parker was not looked upon favorably but I always liked him and drafted him enjoying that. He's fine and the Pats seem to like him. Who else did they have for Tua? Tyreek is an odd bird the way he catches and takes off- that takes a lot of blocking and planning and is atypical. Waddle was very impressive. Is he like Moss or Michael Clayton? Their TE is talented but doesn't generally put up the stats that match his talent. Does he become a top TE? They've had one of the worst rushing attacks in recent memory and their line has always been questionable til sometime last year. Not so unlike Daniel Jones, they haven't exactly put the best team around him.
Wilson didn't look good. He was a draft darling everyone wants to pan out but he reminded me of Eli's rookie year. Mike White was far and away a better QB. Mike White was. Mike White! Their team has been full of issues and dysfunction everywhere and have issues like above.
We are all answering at least one simple unspoken Q for these three- is the situation finally favorable for them to have success?

Payton is gone and Brees is retired a year now but they were so prolific at passing that many of us can't wrap our heads around the fact it's very different. Michael Thomas has barely played and is near 30. Every danger don't draft sign is there but what if he gets 100 catches? Kamara has never been a sled dog but a super talented multi dimensional back. People have him in a sled dog role and delaying suspension. He can do both, he is capable, but what's best and where has his value been? Their WRs we're pawns with roles that they filled beautifully under Payton. Many of them were failed tries at being complete WRs last year.
Rodgers is a superstar hall of famer that we will look back on and say we didn't appreciate him enough because we paid so much attention to Brady and Peyton and Brees and...I mean has there ever been a less adored MVP? Prediction time comes every year and we're back to adoring him but a playoff failure or retirement has always taken the spotlight. He has insane trust that his targets will catch the ball. Adams earned it. So many of his TEs did not but he fired it anyway, they made a good amount of catches and...all good. I've long been waiting for that to bite him. That's when I think we'll know he's old. His WR corps is about gone as is their speed depth that occupied a better corner than warranted. He has a fine line and terrific run game.
Rookie WRs have "never" been gems since football began til like 2-3 years ago. For much of above you have to bet on that trend continuing or history holding true to form.

For FF and QBs especially- they need a good line and run game. I think Tannehill is a good representation of dysfunction and poor run game and then a dramatic change when he has a good organization and run game. Ironically he may have returned to the former but his career....Miami and Tennessee were so very different situations and results. Does anyone think he's awesome? Super talented? So don't be swayed by players that aren't top 5 QBs. They're good, fine, reliable and have always been plentiful in the league.
Denver has WRs that stink. That's what needs to happen, we need to discuss that they've stunk. This guy gets hurt, that guy doesn't meet expectations...whatever. Every single time greatness was predicted they did not live up to the hype. Insert Russel Wilson and now everyone has it all coming together and it could be Peyton II there. They're asking an absolute ton from Wilson. I can't say he isn't capable of what they're asking but geesh it's a alot.

Back to WRs and wrapping this novel up. Can the WR win a one on one matchup? Ask yourself that over n over when considering. Those types are good regardless of quality of team or QB
 

HippieJuice

Footballguy
Because most believe Miami and New Orleans are going to be more run heavy and ball control based on coordinators. It's all about opportunity and targets. No one thinks Jameis or Tua are going to be let loose slinging the rock around.
Fair, but then why are the ADPs of Rodgers WRs so low (and of Rodgers himself?). Some of it is obviously who will be "the guy" but does anyone think Rodgers regresses to QB11 (ADP)

Rodgers was 9th in my league last year and I can easily see him falling a couple spots after losing Adams and others improving.
 

HippieJuice

Footballguy
Because most believe Miami and New Orleans are going to be more run heavy and ball control based on coordinators. It's all about opportunity and targets. No one thinks Jameis or Tua are going to be let loose slinging the rock around.


I also think Carr can pass for 5000 yards this year and improve his TD rate finally
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
I like the call on Winston. For a guy going in the 20s I think he would be a good QB2 for best ball/2 QB leagues.
No QB will see a bigger improvement in weapons from last year to this. He is going from Traquon Smith, Deonte Harris and Marquez Callaway to Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave. Add in Kamara and Winston could have a massive year (assuming the Saints let him throw enough to get there).
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
The reason Wilson isn't getting a bump is most people seem to think he's bad. It was a rough rookie year and now he's coming into the year with a bum knee. That is especially tough for Wilson because mobility is a strength of his.
 
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habsfan

Footballguy
To the original question, I don't know why but I agree that it doesn't make any sense. You can't forecast good to great seasons for WRs and seemingly skirt the question of the guy throwing them the ball. Conversely, QB can't have a good to great season without people catching the ball.

There's definitely opportunity (or a cautionary tale) where this "dissonance" exists. Seattle is a great example. Everyone acknowledges Metcalf and Lockett are great players yet many think Geno / Lock and the overall offence are going to be pretty dismal. How do those puzzle pieces fit together?
 

travdogg

Footballguy
I'm not sure I see an issue with any of these examples.

Tua isn't a runner and everybody going ahead of him, either also has 2 really good options or is a runner, except for Rodgers.

Winston also isn't a runner, and at least in my opinion, doesn't have a ton of job security. I'd argue Winston and Daniel Jones have a whole lot in common. Also his weapons aren't really going that high. Who is drafting Landry? Thomas is going in the WR3 range and Olave in the WR4 range.

As others have said, there is concern Zach Wilson might just not be good, and he's now he's hurt. Also as with Winston, Moore is going as a WR3, and Wilson as a WR4, I don't see people drafting Corey Davis.

Is Carr getting a bump? He finished QB 14 last year, and is going in roughly that area this year. Seems like his WRs are just being readjusted, with Renfrow going on the WR3 borderline, and Waller and Adams being mid-range #1s.

I'm in that group that doesn't have Rodgers as a top-11 QB. This is a run first team, and Rodgers has needed to play at an MVP level to thread the needle to be a top-5 QB with Adams. Now he has to make due without a top talent, and while he was QB5 in my scoring system, he was only 32 points ahead of QB 11 (Cousins) its not unreasonable to think Adams is worth 32 points.
 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
What did Patrick Jeffers, Moose Muhhamad, Steve Smith, Kelvin Benjamin, and Rocket Ismail have in common?

Great FF seasons with crappy QBs.
 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
That said, I'm scratching my head over where Johnson, Claypool, Pickens, and Muth are going. I've seen several drafts where all are gone by round 10 and the QB goes undrafted.
 

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
Winston also isn't a runner, and at least in my opinion, doesn't have a ton of job security

Really? Because you think he is a significant risk to perform poorly or you think there is another strong threat on the roster (who?)? Or you think Payton's departure will kill his performance?

He played very well last season before he was injured, particularly when you take into account the absolutely terrible receiving corps he had.
 

travdogg

Footballguy
Winston also isn't a runner, and at least in my opinion, doesn't have a ton of job security

Really? Because you think he is a significant risk to perform poorly or you think there is another strong threat on the roster (who?)? Or you think Payton's departure will kill his performance?

He played very well last season before he was injured, particularly when you take into account the absolutely terrible receiving corps he had.
I think he's a mediocre to bad QB, who just lost an offensive genius at HC. I also don't think he played all that well before getting hurt, he had a juiced up TD-INT ratio, but that seems completely unsustainable. It was almost double his TB TD% rate, and almost half his INT% rate. I think Winston merely happened to be on the positive side of variance. He still had really poor accuracy like he always has, and that was while being hidden with close to 25 passes per game.

I do think this is an 8 or so win team, that will likely be extremely inconsistent, and I think its in the realm of possibility that QB would be the first change they'd make in a slump. I do wonder of the Saints start slow, they'll just say screw it and turn to Dalton. My personal opinion, I think their best plan would be rolling with Hill, and using a super run heavy, play defense strategy (his 7-2 career record suggests its somewhat sustainable, if unideal) but I'd stop short of predicting it.

ETA: Fantasy wise, I have a hard time seeing a path to top-15 numbers, unless he starts running at the GL, and I think its probably more likely he gets pulled in those situations than it is that he starts producing there. I don't see what makes him more appealing than say Jared Goff or Baker Mayfield, and I think those guys are actually better QBs than Winston.
 

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