Hey Nostradamus!
Footballguy
FBG's Faceoff: Discussing Dynasty Strategy article today was a nice bone to us fantasy owners. Dynasty strategy -- particularly for non-newbie dynasty owners -- often gets short shrift by FBG and in the Shark Pool in favor of newbie guides, trade discussion, rankings for rookie/startup drafts, or player value discussion.
Particularly, I want to call out Waldman's section on putting together "anchors" at the QB, TE, and WR1 positions. I love this strategy. As he notes, due to their longevity, owning studs at these positions can allow your team to be competitive for a long time. Meanwhile, you can then use your picks, roster spots, and waiver claims by continually turning over and sifting through RBs -- who have a much shorter shelf life.
As an example, in my primary league, I've owned Rodgers/Fitzgerald/Gates since 2008. I drafted Rodgers as a rookie, traded for Fitzgerald in 2005, and traded for Gates before the 2008 season. Other than Jonathan Stewart and Gostkowski (lol kickers), I've turned over every single other player on my roster over the last four seasons. I've made the playoffs every year, and significantly improved my depth. By locking in those three, I was able to use all my resources (roster spots/draft picks/waiver claims) to continually stock up on value, youth, or upside fliers at the RB and other WR spots. The goal: Over time, fill out the rest of your roster by finding sleepers who hit, build depth, and then start packaging that depth to add more studs to your "anchors" to put your team over the top.
Here are a few more things I've learned through my (sometimes painful) experience in dynasty:
Constantly Churn The Bottom Of Your Roster
This primarily applies to with standard or smaller numbers of teams (14 or less) and roster sizes. Obviously, this is more difficult in leagues with 16+ teams or with super deep rosters.
As mentioned above, one benefit of an "anchor" strategy is that you can churn your roster. In standard size leagues, there are breakout players every year on the waiver wire. The list is huge. Sometimes they turn into superstars, sometimes they flame out a year or two later, but there is value just sitting out there to be found every year. Bloom has addressed this a few times on the podcast as well. For several years, I've constantly tried to keep a couple roster spots "open" to allow room to dig through the muck and try to find something for free. Once my roster starts looking "full," I immediately start looking to consolidate some of those depth players into a single better player, throwing in picks if necessary, etc. Not only can you turn "found money" into a legit starter, prospect, or top rookie pick, but you free up those spots to grab more free value!
The value of that empty roster spot makes it much easier to pull off "consolidating" trades. Another example: During the offseason last year, I was sick of Brandon Marshall and his "antics."
I traded him away for rookie picks, and probably didn't get fair value. But in doing so, it enabled me to pick up Antonio Brown off the wire. I just did the same thing with Miles Austin and his bum hamstrings, because I know there are a few intriguing free agents just sitting out there. And in many leagues with reasonable roster sizes, this is usually true.
Target Disappointing But High-Talent 2nd/3rd Year Players
Just as we've continually seen breakout players come out of the free agent pool, we've continually seen disappointing second and third year players bust out big. Guys like Aaron Rodgers, Frank Gore, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Darren McFadden, etc. all took a year or two before they truly busted out. More savvy owners won't trade away their prospects after a year or two, but others might. Even savvy owners will sometimes trade these guys away -- either because they have a more immediate need, or because the player battled injury, or he looked unimpressive early on, or he's stuck behind someone on the depth chart. This is classic "buy low, sell high" strategy, but I highlight 2nd and 3rd year players because once they break out, you might not be able to buy them at any price.
In my experience, this strategy is best employed late in the season (or near the trade deadline), or during the off-season but BEFORE minicamps, OTAs, and training camp start generating buzz.
You will inevitably get stuck holding the bag on a Robert Meachem or a Knowshon Moreno. That's okay -- as long as you're buying these types of prospects after the rookie shine has worn off but before they've busted out, you will more than make up for the misses when you hit.
Guys that fit this bill right now, IMO: Mark Ingram, Shane Vereen, Blaine Gabbert (yes, Blaine Gabbert), Kendall Hunter, Colin Kaepernick, Jermaine Gresham, Lance Kendricks, Bilal Powell, and Randall Cobb. Obviously the price you would pay for these guys varies quite a bit. And now that we're almost done with preseason, the hype train may have driven the price of Cobb or Hunter a bit high for your taste, though others on the list probably haven't moved much. The point is, these are all guys that fit the bill and are worth adding to your roster if you can get them from an owner who's either desperate for help elsewhere, or who is simply down on their prospects.
This also ties into the anchor strategy. If you've got a Rodgers or Brees, you can afford to pick up Gabbert or Kaepernick on the cheap and see what happens. If you've got Gronk or Graham, you can afford to see whether Kendricks has shelled out for some velcro on his gloves. So long as you pay a reasonable price for them, it's not a huge loss if these guys don't pan out.
Don't Be Afraid To Trade
In real life, sharks (some of them, anyway) die if they are not constantly moving. Same thing with dynasty trading.
My two cents: Even the best owner will pull the trigger on some trades that look downright ugly a few years (or a few weeks!) later. However, unless you're simply an awful trader -- and conversely, strong at drafting and identifying wire pickups -- you will likely win big on your fair share of trades as well.
Another example: In 2010, I effectively gave Brees, Britt, and Santonio Holmes away for a bag of magic beans (Henne, Marshall, Crabtree, 2010 2.02). But a couple weeks into the season, I traded Greene, Crabtree, and a 3rd for Nicks and McFadden -- right before Nicks and McFadden exploded. At the time, I had all sorts of justifications for the first trade -- Britt and Holmes were getting into trouble, I loved Marshall and Crabtree's talent, thought Henne had upside, and had a rookie in mind at 2.02. And in the second trade, Nicks and McFadden simply hadn't exploded yet -- it seemed like a fair trade at the time.
Owners can be more hesitant to trading in dynasty compared to redraft leagues, because those trades can haunt your team for a long time. You will inevitably make trades that make you look like a moron (in retrospect). And you will inevitably make trades that make you look like a genius (in retrospect).
In all of my leagues, there are usually 1-2 owners who barely trade at all. It's also not uncommon to see an owner who gets gunshy after a few trades blow up in his face. These are not bad owners -- many of them seriously know their stuff when it comes to player evaluation. But they're simply afraid of making a mistake. No one likes to look like a moron, but that fear of failure can cripple them when it comes time to make trades.
From my perspective, trading isn't about always winning the trade. It's about continually adjusting and improving the structure of your team -- to pick up an aging vet RB (ala Gore/Jackson this year) if you're in a win-now window, or to consolidate depth/picks into a stud, or to shore up your depth if your starter is inexperienced or has an injury history, or to balance things out when you're deep at one position and thin at another. When you stop trading, you will find yourself at the mercy of rookie picks and the waiver wire -- and that can make it a very dicey proposition to quickly fix a hole on your team.
Identify Your Strengths
The truth is, the strategies above are what works best for me. There are a lot of objective benefits to them, but as I alluded to, they might really hurt you if you're truly an awful trader, or if you're awful at identifying promising free agents.
Personally, my weakness is drafting rookies. As mentioned above, in my main league, I've made the playoffs the last four years since anchoring the QB/TE/WR1 positions. In fact, I've been the highest scoring team all four years, and the gap has widened each year -- a narrow, surprise lead in 2008 to a totally dominant lead in 2011. What I didn't mention was that for the first 5-6 years in that league, my team was awful. Just dreadful. I inherited a mediocre orphan team. I proceeded to use first round rookie picks on superstars such as Akili Smith, Sylvester Morris, Freddie Mitchell, and Onterrio Smith. My drafting has improved -- instead of total busts, I end up with mediocre talents. (Warning: Richardson, Tannehill, and David Wilson are doomed.)
Once I realized that I was a piss-poor rookie drafter, I shifted my focus accordingly. I value rookie picks less than other owners. I spend more time scouting free agents or digging deep to identify trade partners. Those are the things I found I was good at, and as time went on, I fleshed out a more comprehensive approach to dynasty as I gained experience and picked up tips that fit that approach.
If you're an awful trader when it comes to player-for-player trades, but have an outstanding eye for rookies, then it makes sense to build a strategy around acquiring rookie picks. If you're awful at picking gems from the free agent pool, perhaps churning your roster isn't for you.
--
Anyone else have general dynasty strategy tips? Strategy for specific league-types or scoring systems -- IDP, Superflex, 2QB, 16+ team leagues, TD-only or performance scoring, leagues with a taxi/reserve/practice squad etc.? This is already pretty long, but I can definitely think of some strategy tips for performance scoring and taxi squad leagues that I might write up tomorrow.
Particularly, I want to call out Waldman's section on putting together "anchors" at the QB, TE, and WR1 positions. I love this strategy. As he notes, due to their longevity, owning studs at these positions can allow your team to be competitive for a long time. Meanwhile, you can then use your picks, roster spots, and waiver claims by continually turning over and sifting through RBs -- who have a much shorter shelf life.
As an example, in my primary league, I've owned Rodgers/Fitzgerald/Gates since 2008. I drafted Rodgers as a rookie, traded for Fitzgerald in 2005, and traded for Gates before the 2008 season. Other than Jonathan Stewart and Gostkowski (lol kickers), I've turned over every single other player on my roster over the last four seasons. I've made the playoffs every year, and significantly improved my depth. By locking in those three, I was able to use all my resources (roster spots/draft picks/waiver claims) to continually stock up on value, youth, or upside fliers at the RB and other WR spots. The goal: Over time, fill out the rest of your roster by finding sleepers who hit, build depth, and then start packaging that depth to add more studs to your "anchors" to put your team over the top.
Here are a few more things I've learned through my (sometimes painful) experience in dynasty:
Constantly Churn The Bottom Of Your Roster
This primarily applies to with standard or smaller numbers of teams (14 or less) and roster sizes. Obviously, this is more difficult in leagues with 16+ teams or with super deep rosters.
As mentioned above, one benefit of an "anchor" strategy is that you can churn your roster. In standard size leagues, there are breakout players every year on the waiver wire. The list is huge. Sometimes they turn into superstars, sometimes they flame out a year or two later, but there is value just sitting out there to be found every year. Bloom has addressed this a few times on the podcast as well. For several years, I've constantly tried to keep a couple roster spots "open" to allow room to dig through the muck and try to find something for free. Once my roster starts looking "full," I immediately start looking to consolidate some of those depth players into a single better player, throwing in picks if necessary, etc. Not only can you turn "found money" into a legit starter, prospect, or top rookie pick, but you free up those spots to grab more free value!
The value of that empty roster spot makes it much easier to pull off "consolidating" trades. Another example: During the offseason last year, I was sick of Brandon Marshall and his "antics."
I traded him away for rookie picks, and probably didn't get fair value. But in doing so, it enabled me to pick up Antonio Brown off the wire. I just did the same thing with Miles Austin and his bum hamstrings, because I know there are a few intriguing free agents just sitting out there. And in many leagues with reasonable roster sizes, this is usually true.Target Disappointing But High-Talent 2nd/3rd Year Players
Just as we've continually seen breakout players come out of the free agent pool, we've continually seen disappointing second and third year players bust out big. Guys like Aaron Rodgers, Frank Gore, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Darren McFadden, etc. all took a year or two before they truly busted out. More savvy owners won't trade away their prospects after a year or two, but others might. Even savvy owners will sometimes trade these guys away -- either because they have a more immediate need, or because the player battled injury, or he looked unimpressive early on, or he's stuck behind someone on the depth chart. This is classic "buy low, sell high" strategy, but I highlight 2nd and 3rd year players because once they break out, you might not be able to buy them at any price.
In my experience, this strategy is best employed late in the season (or near the trade deadline), or during the off-season but BEFORE minicamps, OTAs, and training camp start generating buzz.
You will inevitably get stuck holding the bag on a Robert Meachem or a Knowshon Moreno. That's okay -- as long as you're buying these types of prospects after the rookie shine has worn off but before they've busted out, you will more than make up for the misses when you hit.
Guys that fit this bill right now, IMO: Mark Ingram, Shane Vereen, Blaine Gabbert (yes, Blaine Gabbert), Kendall Hunter, Colin Kaepernick, Jermaine Gresham, Lance Kendricks, Bilal Powell, and Randall Cobb. Obviously the price you would pay for these guys varies quite a bit. And now that we're almost done with preseason, the hype train may have driven the price of Cobb or Hunter a bit high for your taste, though others on the list probably haven't moved much. The point is, these are all guys that fit the bill and are worth adding to your roster if you can get them from an owner who's either desperate for help elsewhere, or who is simply down on their prospects.
This also ties into the anchor strategy. If you've got a Rodgers or Brees, you can afford to pick up Gabbert or Kaepernick on the cheap and see what happens. If you've got Gronk or Graham, you can afford to see whether Kendricks has shelled out for some velcro on his gloves. So long as you pay a reasonable price for them, it's not a huge loss if these guys don't pan out.
Don't Be Afraid To Trade
In real life, sharks (some of them, anyway) die if they are not constantly moving. Same thing with dynasty trading.
My two cents: Even the best owner will pull the trigger on some trades that look downright ugly a few years (or a few weeks!) later. However, unless you're simply an awful trader -- and conversely, strong at drafting and identifying wire pickups -- you will likely win big on your fair share of trades as well.
Another example: In 2010, I effectively gave Brees, Britt, and Santonio Holmes away for a bag of magic beans (Henne, Marshall, Crabtree, 2010 2.02). But a couple weeks into the season, I traded Greene, Crabtree, and a 3rd for Nicks and McFadden -- right before Nicks and McFadden exploded. At the time, I had all sorts of justifications for the first trade -- Britt and Holmes were getting into trouble, I loved Marshall and Crabtree's talent, thought Henne had upside, and had a rookie in mind at 2.02. And in the second trade, Nicks and McFadden simply hadn't exploded yet -- it seemed like a fair trade at the time.
Owners can be more hesitant to trading in dynasty compared to redraft leagues, because those trades can haunt your team for a long time. You will inevitably make trades that make you look like a moron (in retrospect). And you will inevitably make trades that make you look like a genius (in retrospect).
In all of my leagues, there are usually 1-2 owners who barely trade at all. It's also not uncommon to see an owner who gets gunshy after a few trades blow up in his face. These are not bad owners -- many of them seriously know their stuff when it comes to player evaluation. But they're simply afraid of making a mistake. No one likes to look like a moron, but that fear of failure can cripple them when it comes time to make trades.
From my perspective, trading isn't about always winning the trade. It's about continually adjusting and improving the structure of your team -- to pick up an aging vet RB (ala Gore/Jackson this year) if you're in a win-now window, or to consolidate depth/picks into a stud, or to shore up your depth if your starter is inexperienced or has an injury history, or to balance things out when you're deep at one position and thin at another. When you stop trading, you will find yourself at the mercy of rookie picks and the waiver wire -- and that can make it a very dicey proposition to quickly fix a hole on your team.
Identify Your Strengths
The truth is, the strategies above are what works best for me. There are a lot of objective benefits to them, but as I alluded to, they might really hurt you if you're truly an awful trader, or if you're awful at identifying promising free agents.
Personally, my weakness is drafting rookies. As mentioned above, in my main league, I've made the playoffs the last four years since anchoring the QB/TE/WR1 positions. In fact, I've been the highest scoring team all four years, and the gap has widened each year -- a narrow, surprise lead in 2008 to a totally dominant lead in 2011. What I didn't mention was that for the first 5-6 years in that league, my team was awful. Just dreadful. I inherited a mediocre orphan team. I proceeded to use first round rookie picks on superstars such as Akili Smith, Sylvester Morris, Freddie Mitchell, and Onterrio Smith. My drafting has improved -- instead of total busts, I end up with mediocre talents. (Warning: Richardson, Tannehill, and David Wilson are doomed.)
Once I realized that I was a piss-poor rookie drafter, I shifted my focus accordingly. I value rookie picks less than other owners. I spend more time scouting free agents or digging deep to identify trade partners. Those are the things I found I was good at, and as time went on, I fleshed out a more comprehensive approach to dynasty as I gained experience and picked up tips that fit that approach.
If you're an awful trader when it comes to player-for-player trades, but have an outstanding eye for rookies, then it makes sense to build a strategy around acquiring rookie picks. If you're awful at picking gems from the free agent pool, perhaps churning your roster isn't for you.
--
Anyone else have general dynasty strategy tips? Strategy for specific league-types or scoring systems -- IDP, Superflex, 2QB, 16+ team leagues, TD-only or performance scoring, leagues with a taxi/reserve/practice squad etc.? This is already pretty long, but I can definitely think of some strategy tips for performance scoring and taxi squad leagues that I might write up tomorrow.
This is partly what I was getting at in my previous post. IMO it is possible to build a roster that is strong both short term and long term. Not overemphasizing age is very important.
