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DO NOT DRAFT LIST (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter greenline
- Start date
avoiding injuries
Footballguy
Aaron Rodgers
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Rivers is an excellent backup FFL QB. Larry Johnson is also excellent value where he is going this year
greenline
Footballguy
He sure would be but is it possible to grab him late enough? The mocks I've done and seen have Rivers going way too high for me to pull the trigger on a backup QB.
Dexter Manley
Footballguy
Agreed on Rivers, and Kitna too unless he slips really late, then I could see him as a decent QB2.Completely disagree on LJ. I think he's a great value play for where he's going. I've seen him last into the early 2nd in some 12 team mock drafts. Think about it: LJ is going later this season than last, despite the fact that he's in camp this year, in shape, and 100% healthy. Barring injury the guy is a lock for top 10 #'s, with top 3 upside.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
He's very high on my "PASS" list.Only at crazy value do I take him (QB14+), and then only if schedule compliments well.RB - LJ scares me, especially in Round 1 or 2.WR - Roddy White leads the way for me. I can't see expecting him to be a WR2 and drafting him at WR23-27 leaves no room for upside. He was a great WR3/4 last year, but I don't buy in this year.Chris Chambers also comes to mind.I'm sure there's more, but these come to mind right away.Overall though - every player has value, it's just that when I would take them I expect them to be long gone.blackjack23
Footballguy
Why? I just dont see it. Not on that team.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Any Miami Dolphins WR
PranksterJD
Footballguy
I agreed with this for a while, but recently got turned around. I think this one's gonna come back to haunt you. The over-rating of Ahmad Bradshaw has pushed the Jacobs' ADP to the low 40s or something, and he's a solid value if you can get him in the 4th as a RB2 or flex. Sure, you'll have to get a backup for when he misses games, but he's good enough when he plays to put up RB1 numbers, and that kind of production in the 4th round is enough to win 2-3 games a year by itself.
AtomicDogg97
Footballguy
Lee Evans
5-ish Finkle
Footballguy
Roy Williams(or even Calvin Johnson) where he's being drafted.
If he never truly lit it up in a Martz offense I doubt he's going to in one that's going to be more predicated on running the ball.
If he never truly lit it up in a Martz offense I doubt he's going to in one that's going to be more predicated on running the ball.
ceo3west
Footballguy
I agree on LJ - it amazes me how last year the guy was the consensus #3 pick, and now his circumstances have improved guys are scared to take him late 1st/early 2nd. Before he got hurt last year, LJ was starting to come around and put up the kind of stud #'s we're used to, even with the QB & O-line problems. I think guys that pass on LJ in the mid-to-late 1st will be sorry.
eric rymer
Footballguy
I'm sorry but putting anyone on a do not draft list is not a smart idea at all. It's all about value. If a player will out perform his draft position, then he is worth drafting. Period. For example: LJ seems to be going around the mid 2nd...approx RB11. if he fall to the mid-late second early third then I am all over him. Barring injury he will outperform that draft position. As bad as KC was last year and as slow as he started, he was on pace for a top 10 finish. KC should be a little better this year. But this is not an LJ discussion, there are more than enough of those floating around. I just picked him because you mentioned it.ETA: looks like some other folks had the same idea I did as I was posting.
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Andy Herron
Footballguy
Larry Johnson will be one of the first, if not THE first, player(s) I throw out there in an auction draft and let somebody else burn up their cap dollars on.
I don't have any desire for him at all.
Vince Young will be another. People want to project him higher than his true value every year, but until he actually achieves those numbers I'm not buying.
He's simply unproven. People continue to want to believe that "this will be the year." Well, until he has that year, he's not worth the risk.
I don't have any desire for him at all.
Vince Young will be another. People want to project him higher than his true value every year, but until he actually achieves those numbers I'm not buying.
He's simply unproven. People continue to want to believe that "this will be the year." Well, until he has that year, he's not worth the risk.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Great pick here.I'll give Calvin a pass since he was a rookie. Roy should be avoided at all costs.
ceo3west
Footballguy
Disagree on MJD. He's all upside from where he's being picked at RB13. In fact, he probably represents the best value of the top 15 RB's this year IMO.
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
I really don't think anyone is saying do not draft player X at all costs. IMO, a "DO NOT DRAFT" list simply means let someone else jump on him at/around his ADP. I laugh when some FF'ers say they simply will not draft so-and-so because he is a thug, or they hate him. I'd draft a serial killer if he put up good stats.
Dexter Manley
Footballguy
This has been discussed ad nauseum, but basically LJ was on pace to finish in the top 10 last year, despite missing camp and not being in 100% football shape the first couple of games of the season, and playing the most brutal part of his schedule early.The Chiefs had a lot of turnover this offseason, but they still have Herm as their HC. He will run LJ into the ground. Barring injury, I don't see how LJ will not finish in the top 10.
ScoobyDoo
Footballguy
This list or thread is basically the list of guys you refuse to take at ADP or above. But if the guy falls? Sure, you take him.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
Javon Walker - enough said
prymetyme25
Footballguy
Excellent
Dexter Manley
Footballguy
Curious as to why LJ scares you.Agree with you on Roddy White.
Only at crazy value do I take him (QB14+), and then only if schedule compliments well.
RB - LJ scares me, especially in Round 1 or 2.
WR - Roddy White leads the way for me. I can't see expecting him to be a WR2 and drafting him at WR23-27 leaves no room for upside. He was a great WR3/4 last year, but I don't buy in this year.
Chris Chambers also comes to mind.
I'm sure there's more, but these come to mind right away.
Overall though - every player has value, it's just that when I would take them I expect them to be long gone.
I'm basically neutral on Chambers. He could possibly fall far enough (although not likely) where I could see myself drafting him as my #1 backup wr.
wadegarrett
FFA Legend™
Willis McGahee - guy has a bad left knee and the teams OL is patched together w/ duct tape
MCguidance
Footballguy
With all the names listed I might just not even draft a team this year. Honestly, there are a few on here that I would avoid, but really I have no idea until the draft unfolds and I start determining value on the fly.
puckalicious
Footballguy
You mean last year when he was a rookie and played hurt for over 1/2 season? Played hurt to the point he was popping vicodin just so he could play? Playing hurt in an overly complex system in his rookie year... I say he did pretty good all things considered. CJ2 has alot of upside this year regardless of how much they run the ball. The expected decrease in passing will not be a negative for CJ2 and Roy, it will be a negative to the 3rd/4th WR option like McDonald and Furrey last year.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
Furrey and McDonald had more combined targets than Calvin and Roy. Also, last year, Calvin and Roy had a combined THREE targets when the Lions were inside the five yard line. That is not going to happen again. Those two, especially Calvin, have been lighting up camp. I think Martz leaving is a benefit for Calvin and Roy.I'm sorry but this is IDIOT SPEAK
blackjack23
Footballguy
McGahee
Horrible Oline, horrible QB, no receiving threats, declining defense.
Horrible Oline, horrible QB, no receiving threats, declining defense.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
Roy Williams fantasy football finishes, 2004-2007:29, 30, 10, 33.Most, if not all 'paid' projections have him as a top 10-12 WR. One popular website (not this one) has him 6th.I'll pass. And grow up.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
Same reasons people are leery of McGahee - bad O-line, and even worse QB situation.I see little / no upside with major downside.Curious as to why LJ scares you.Agree with you on Roddy White.He's very high on my "PASS" list.
Only at crazy value do I take him (QB14+), and then only if schedule compliments well.
RB - LJ scares me, especially in Round 1 or 2.
WR - Roddy White leads the way for me. I can't see expecting him to be a WR2 and drafting him at WR23-27 leaves no room for upside. He was a great WR3/4 last year, but I don't buy in this year.
Chris Chambers also comes to mind.
I'm sure there's more, but these come to mind right away.
Overall though - every player has value, it's just that when I would take them I expect them to be long gone.
I'm basically neutral on Chambers. He could possibly fall far enough (although not likely) where I could see myself drafting him as my #1 backup wr.
tombonneau
Footballguy
This was the first guy that popped into my head and it' a distant second ...I'd say for their ADP guys I don't like
Bowe - something tells me sophomore slump is coming ...
Barber - TDs will be there, but still not enough touches for top 8
Kitna - Avg. QB whose team now sounds like it wants to run, run and then run a draw play
For those scratching off LJ, that's crazy talk. I wish I was going to be in a spot to take him early second. He will be a steal. Crazy value this year.
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tombonneau
Footballguy
LJ's situation is no worse than less year. Maybe even better depending on if Albert can get in the lineup.As long as Herm is his coach, a healthy LJ is a top 10 back. Period. Now if you think he is an injury risk, that is something else, but I do not foresee anyway that LJ plays 16 games and is not top 10.Same reasons people are leery of McGahee - bad O-line, and even worse QB situation.I see little / no upside with major downside.Curious as to why LJ scares you.Agree with you on Roddy White.
Only at crazy value do I take him (QB14+), and then only if schedule compliments well.
RB - LJ scares me, especially in Round 1 or 2.
WR - Roddy White leads the way for me. I can't see expecting him to be a WR2 and drafting him at WR23-27 leaves no room for upside. He was a great WR3/4 last year, but I don't buy in this year.
Chris Chambers also comes to mind.
I'm sure there's more, but these come to mind right away.
Overall though - every player has value, it's just that when I would take them I expect them to be long gone.
I'm basically neutral on Chambers. He could possibly fall far enough (although not likely) where I could see myself drafting him as my #1 backup wr.
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
My caution with LJ is partly due to injury risk and mileage. Part O-Line. Part combo of shaky QB and Bowe won't be sneaking up on defenses this year. Part elderly TE which has served as a conerstone in this offense for many years and demands a great deal of attention. All can be rationally explained away (which I'm sure you're gearing up to do right now) but it adds up to too many questions for me. You could very well be right though. LJ is a great RB.LJ's situation is no worse than less year. Maybe even better depending on if Albert can get in the lineup.As long as Herm is his coach, a healthy LJ is a top 10 back. Period. Now if you think he is an injury risk, that is something else, but I do not foresee anyway that LJ plays 16 games and is not top 10.Same reasons people are leery of McGahee - bad O-line, and even worse QB situation.I see little / no upside with major downside.Curious as to why LJ scares you.Agree with you on Roddy White.He's very high on my "PASS" list.
Only at crazy value do I take him (QB14+), and then only if schedule compliments well.
RB - LJ scares me, especially in Round 1 or 2.
WR - Roddy White leads the way for me. I can't see expecting him to be a WR2 and drafting him at WR23-27 leaves no room for upside. He was a great WR3/4 last year, but I don't buy in this year.
Chris Chambers also comes to mind.
I'm sure there's more, but these come to mind right away.
Overall though - every player has value, it's just that when I would take them I expect them to be long gone.
I'm basically neutral on Chambers. He could possibly fall far enough (although not likely) where I could see myself drafting him as my #1 backup wr.
tombonneau
Footballguy
Don't get me wrong, I 100% understand the viewpoint of LJ's downside, and if he were being drafted in the middle of the first round I'd be on board.But I think it reaches a point where if you can get the guy as your RB2 the risk/reward is worthwhile.My caution with LJ is partly due to injury risk and mileage. Part O-Line. Part combo of shaky QB and Bowe won't be sneaking up on defenses this year. Part elderly TE which has served as a conerstone in this offense for many years and demands a great deal of attention. All can be rationally explained away (which I'm sure you're gearing up to do right now) but it adds up to too many questions for me. You could very well be right though. LJ is a great RB.LJ's situation is no worse than less year. Maybe even better depending on if Albert can get in the lineup.As long as Herm is his coach, a healthy LJ is a top 10 back. Period. Now if you think he is an injury risk, that is something else, but I do not foresee anyway that LJ plays 16 games and is not top 10.Same reasons people are leery of McGahee - bad O-line, and even worse QB situation.I see little / no upside with major downside.Curious as to why LJ scares you.Agree with you on Roddy White.He's very high on my "PASS" list.
Only at crazy value do I take him (QB14+), and then only if schedule compliments well.
RB - LJ scares me, especially in Round 1 or 2.
WR - Roddy White leads the way for me. I can't see expecting him to be a WR2 and drafting him at WR23-27 leaves no room for upside. He was a great WR3/4 last year, but I don't buy in this year.
Chris Chambers also comes to mind.
I'm sure there's more, but these come to mind right away.
Overall though - every player has value, it's just that when I would take them I expect them to be long gone.
I'm basically neutral on Chambers. He could possibly fall far enough (although not likely) where I could see myself drafting him as my #1 backup wr.
puckalicious
Footballguy
I'll 2nd the "grow up". Also I did not read your post correctly, I replied to it thinking you said CJ2 should be avoided at all costs. I agree that RW is to be avoided at his current position of WR14, as I think Calvin will out produce him this year.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
McDonald and Furry caught about 140 balls between the 2 of them, and I expect much much much less production out of them so why can't Roy who was a top 10 WR in 2006, why can't he post about 80/1,100/5-6 TD...why is that so unreasonable?
Donnybrook
Footballguy
I actually think Reggie Williams could be a steal this year. :crossfingers:Edit to add - some good news
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Completely, disagree with the don't draft Rivers sentiment. I'm finding he's a great value and look for him to put up top 10-12 QB numbers if he stays healthy all year.
Now a guy who should not be drafted is Jake Delhomme. Especially with Smitty gone for two games. Another guy I will not likely draft is going to be Cutler because without Brandon Marshall for 2-3 games he's gonna struggle.
Now a guy who should not be drafted is Jake Delhomme. Especially with Smitty gone for two games. Another guy I will not likely draft is going to be Cutler because without Brandon Marshall for 2-3 games he's gonna struggle.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
think you're missing the boat on LJ...been reading some clippings from KC newspapers, stating he's tearing it up in practices, looking great in the process.I'm not knocking your predictions, I just think LJ might be better than what people expect..he's not chopped liver, lets put it that way..I'll add Derek Anderson..nothing screams `one year wonder` MORE than a guy with a lifetime 56.5% comp percentage..12 tds/10ints final 8 weeks of 2007..his OWN TEAM tried to give him away this off-season, but no one bit on the trade offers..they drafted Quinn for a reason, eventually, he's going to start.with perhaps the toughest schedule in the NFL (at least on paper it appears to be) its easy to imagine the brownies starting out 0-4...and then what happens? Don't draft any Denver RB...without any decent Wr's, Matt Hasselbeck will not be as good as in years past.Anthony Gonzalez might be 'fool's gold' this season, overhyped, underperforming player, relative to his ADP.Tom Brady - don't draft him if you *think* he's throwing 40+ tds this season, he will be lucky to toss 30..his lifetime avg is 28.NE plays an easy schedule, more conducive to running the ball well than it is to chucking-n-ducking..while everyone drafts Moss and Brady, the true value play is L. Maroney..
