Do you know what you're good at and what you're not? (1 Viewer)

[gianmarco]

This is meant to be a very generic thread. What I mean is, I've seen a few threads before about "what's your biggest weakness in fantasy football" or "what do you do best?". Those lists are helpful in the sense that we can see some of the same mistakes over and over and realize that some are more common than others. But, what do we do about them? What do YOU do to improve how you do in fantasy football? In other words, do you analyze your draft at the end of the year? Do you keep a spreadsheet of your leagues and note trends that are either successful or unsuccessful? Do you kind of just get a general idea of what you THINK you're good at or not and then vaguely store it away?

I guess I'm trying to come up with some tools that help us examine what we do and how we do it and why we do it to help make ourselves better. Maybe someone compares their end of year results by some point or scoring method in order to get a baseline that might be useful. I've seen on here some of us requesting something similar about FBG staff to see how well they did, but what about doing it on ourselves? What are some good ways to judge.

For example, I think I'm a pretty good judge of WR's and how they will do. But, I don't really know this for sure and I don't measure this in any objective format. It's just kind of my idea and gut feeling that I'm good at it because I THINK I have good results with them. Maybe I'm not, though.

So, what are some techniques you use, if any, to evaluate how you do on a given year and how do you use these to improve?

 

[Interseptopus]

If I take 1st I had a good season

Typically, I picked bad WRs until last season. How did I improve? I stopped over-coaching and out-thinking myself.

You can put in hours and hours into your preseason, but in the end it's just 25% skill and about 75% luck. I realized this as I used to put in hours every day researching for my fantasy team. I would convince myself that I had the best team availible. Then, someone would grab some players I was convinced through hours of research would not do well, and they are steals of the year.

You can research all you want but in the end it's just a matter of chance. Chance that your guy will not get hurt. Chance that everything will work out for your guy. All you can really do is go with your gut in the end.

Another draw back of all that research is that I would just absolutely dislike everyone not on my "list", which was everyone except for the 9 starters and 6 bench that I wanted. So, when someone I wanted was bid too high for me to grab (auction draft), I would be stuck passing up good talent because I "didn't like them" and ended up being stuck with a shmuck.

Bottom line, less = more. Don't over think it. Something like this thread encourages just that, thinking way too much.

 

[stevegamer]

I've been in a number of leagues over the years, in different fromats, scoring sytems, etc. I think that's a key to figuring out what you really do well, because you may do well at somehting in League X every year, but if the only league that has that aspect, you're not sure if it's you, and it's repeatable skill in general, or just that no one else has a clue about that in the one league.

For example, I know that I have, for some reason, an ability to draft good-great team defenses after a number of them have been picked consistently. I don't know why I can do this - but I do know many things that aren't reasons, and really the only constant seems to be my instinct - I've eliminated a number of possible reasons over the years that might have been relevant. I figured this out after taking the #1 or 2 defense in a league 3 years running, while getting laughed at for the picks. I think the clincher was the 1999 Rams - on the surface there was no big reason to think they'd be good - they were bad the year before - and I have no idea anymore exactly why I wanted them. But after pulling teams out of my butt the two prior years, peopel in the league told me I knew defenses. And then I did well ina nothr league, and at that point, I had the data points that told me I knew what I was doing.

You need to be able to prove it's you, or your method, via indpendent seasons in different legues.

 

[Banger]

Over the years I've learned to trust my judgement and go against the grain. I also try to be objective and not make judgements about guys and try to listen to all the information about the player and situation before making judgements. I'll also trust my eyes in how a player looks over relying on stats.

In terms of judging a successful season I try to have a very deep team at every position and be the top scorer in each league. Sometimes the schedule screws you but as long as you put up good consistent points on a week in week out basis you'll be successful year after year.

 

[QUEZILLA]

I'm real good at drafting guys that are destined to get injured.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I think the only real measure you have is FF results. How many points did your teams collectively score compared to the opposition's points? Combined H2H record works too if you're in enough leagues that the flukiness of any individual leagues net out. Or better yet, combined all-play record across every league.

 

[Prof. Chaos]

I'm real good at drafting guys that are destined to get injured.

Same here. Lost my intire starting line up by week 5 in 2 differant seasons.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

I think I have a knack for trading aging studs who are about to nosedive, while at the same time not trading my aging studs who continue to put up nice stats. It's the eternal question in a dynasty league. Can I get one more year out of this guy, or will he hit the wall?

 

[Hoss_Cartwright]

I draft well, and trade well most of the time, but I'm not very good at picking my starting lineup if I have a lot of depth.

 

[gianmarco]

I draft well, and trade well most of the time, but I'm not very good at picking my starting lineup if I have a lot of depth.

The point of this, however, isn't to list what you're good at (or think you are). So, my question to you now is this----How do you know you trade well and draft well? Do you have any objective way of looking back at what you've done or you just have a general feeling you are? I feel the same way about myself, but I've never really looked at it and I could very well be misleading myself.

 

[TheFanatic]

If I take 1st I had a good season

Typically, I picked bad WRs until last season. How did I improve? I stopped over-coaching and out-thinking myself.

This was me for a long time. I always inked a guy to a contract (Dynasty Contract leagues mainly) that I thought had potential and seemed to always bust on me. I looked like a genius when I passed on Roy Williams and Fitz in the first to take Michael Clayton in the 3rd their rookie seasons. That went south in year two. Instead what I do now is leave some schlub on my roster who is purely WW fodder. This year it's Michael Vick. When someone busts out or shows strong play I snag him off the WW. I grabbed Boldin his rookie year after he went off week 1. Took Muhammad a couple of years ago around mid season when he was going off.

So, instead of trying to play NFL scout and find the diamonds in the rough I wait till the diamond starts to shine before I grab it. Sure I might miss the guy on the WW, but there are usually more than one guy to be had every season.

My strength seems to be TE's. Drafted Heap after his first season. Gates was taken a pick ahead of where I was going to take him his rookie season. Once KWII redid his deal to an incentive laiden contract I traded or drafted him in every league I was in. Have avoided Vernon Davis like I avoid his initials. Jumped on Owen Daniels last year. Jury is still out on that one. I'm targeting Fasano and Donald Lee in most of my leagues. Not as my starter. I always have a reliable starter first and one of these guys second...

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I draft well...not sure how to measure that other then

1. at the end of the draft I usually love my team and so do my league mates

2. throughout the draft, I seem to be the guy who everybody waits to see who I pick because they know I have done my research and missing the playoffs is not really an option for me, even if decimated by injuries, I usually find a way to get in

3. my bench consisitently produces solid fantasy points even if I don't win that week....I get depth...

4. also I have found that many of the guys I draft in the late rounds often get taken much earlier the next year by other guys....

not tooting my own horn here, because what I am terrible at is deciding who to start each week after the "must start" guys, I usually cost myself a few wins each year because of this.....often this is a problem when you have too much solid depth....I look to continually improve every spot on my roster every day....I want to have the best bench, let alone starting lineup....then I pull the trigger on the wrong guy.....almost to the point where my league mates say, nice roster, how you gonna screw it up this week.....kinda like having a nice drive off the tee and then getting a double bogey....drive for show putt for dough...

I really need to find a way to make better decisions on the starting lineup....especially if I have had a couple injuries and guys are ranked pretty close that week....

 

[Interseptopus]

I draft well, and trade well most of the time, but I'm not very good at picking my starting lineup if I have a lot of depth.

The point of this, however, isn't to list what you're good at (or think you are). So, my question to you now is this----How do you know you trade well and draft well? Do you have any objective way of looking back at what you've done or you just have a general feeling you are? I feel the same way about myself, but I've never really looked at it and I could very well be misleading myself.

It's pretty easy- Drafting well: At the end of your season take a look at how many of your starters are originally drafted by your team? Then, keep that number in mind and look at your ranking on your league. If you are in 1st place, then you drafted well... I know what you mean- "I took Player X round 3 pick 3 ahead of Player Y. Would I have been better off taking Player Y". That's way too complicated to figure out, but take a look at your draft results at the end of the season. Just compare draft position to how well they did that season for you (starting. Someone who doesn't play a game for you doesn't matter).

Trading Well: Did you get better players when it was all said and done? I traded LT and Driver away for Edwards, LJ, Galloway the week before LJ got hurt (go figure). I still took 3rd in our league. I went back and looked week by week what my score WOULD have been. Turns out, I would have had the same record in the regular season and same seed in the playoffs (6/6), but I would have LOST the first game to the 3 seed instead of beating him. And that 3 seed would have went on to take 3rd instead of me. So that's one way to determine trades- go back and look week by week what your score would have been and see if you would have done better.

 

[MCguidance]

In most of my mocks this summer I have been able to draft solid RBs and WRs, but just when I make my mind up to draft a QB, there is a run. It's happened to me several times, waiting a bit too long on taking who I want. Very often I'll wind up picking one pick too long before my starting QB. I have to get better at analyzing others picks to determine who will go where at what position. In a recent mock a guy got good value on D. McNabb and then took Garrard two rounds later, one pick before me, befuddling me. I guess that is the reason I mock, to be prepared for everything and all situations.

ETA: My strength during the season is the waiver wire. I have been pretty good at picking up guys that look like they are about to "go off" as someone else termed it. When GB started to go through RBs last year, I grabbed Grant, while most of the guys in my league mocked me for grabbing a Don Bosco Prep guy (we live in the area Grant played HS ball). A lot of this knowledge, however, is in front of most people, here in the SP.

 

[stevegamer]

Also, I feel that if you get a "rep" for doing something well, you really can reap rewards if you take some time to figure out why you do it well. If you see if there is some aspect of what you do well, you might be able to use that elsewhere. I think that's what the OP is getting at.

 

[Routilla]

I am a waiver wire shark, it's the only way to compensate for bust picks and injuries.

 

[TheFanatic]

I am a waiver wire shark, it's the only way to compensate for bust picks and injuries.

This doesn't get enough love. A WW move can make or break a season.

 

[Banger]

I am a waiver wire shark, it's the only way to compensate for bust picks and injuries.

This doesn't get enough love. A WW move can make or break a season.

This is a good point and it's probably the one strategy that I've changed the most over the past few years. With sites like FBG's and other good ones out there, any idiot knows who to pick up any given week and if you're not at the top of the WW list, you're beat. I've had to alter my strategy and now focus on picking up players before they have the big week, not after. I'll usually follow a few key situations very closely (like the GB situation last year) and read everything I can about the situation and players involved and pick up a "Grant" a week or two before he has that 22-125-1 type week. By the time player x has that big game it's already too late....

 

[Stinkin Ref]

just wanted to add....

for years I have been asking for a "post season" FBG VBD application that would allow us to see where all of the guys actually ended up, we could then compare that to our pre draft day cheatsheet and see how things compared.....not only would this let us see how good FBG is, but also where we made our own good and bad decisions....

plus an application like this would be great for guys that are starting up a new league or joining a new league....you would be able to plug in the scoring system and see how well guys would have done in that league the year before.....

example: my pre draft FBG VBD cheatsheet last year had Brandon Marshall ranked as the 42 WR.....but where did he really end up...?

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I am a waiver wire shark, it's the only way to compensate for bust picks and injuries.

This doesn't get enough love. A WW move can make or break a season.

 

[stevegamer]

just wanted to add....

for years I have been asking for a "post season" FBG VBD application that would allow us to see where all of the guys actually ended up, we could then compare that to our pre draft day cheatsheet and see how things compared.....not only would this let us see how good FBG is, but also where we made our own good and bad decisions....

plus an application like this would be great for guys that are starting up a new league or joining a new league....you would be able to plug in the scoring system and see how well guys would have done in that league the year before.....

example: my pre draft FBG VBD cheatsheet last year had Brandon Marshall ranked as the 42 WR.....but where did he really end up...?

Plug in actual stats from end of year, adn use that as your "projections".

 

[Pickle Rody]

I am a waiver wire shark, it's the only way to compensate for bust picks and injuries.

This doesn't get enough love. A WW move can make or break a season.

I draft poorly in my keeper league. I just never seem to hit the nail on the head early. WW, that's another story. This is where I make up for all of my draft gaffes. I know I don't draft well, so I have refined my WW ability to the point where I am the one being called each week by other league mates looking for a WW gem....they just don't know where, or how, to find them. I also think part of my problem drafting in this league is the make-up of my league mates. Even though I have been drafting with them for years, they still manage to throw a huge curve into the draft I have laid out in front of myself each year. Adjusting during the draft has become a struggle within my mind because I tend to overvalue a sleeper in an effort to grab the guy before one of my crazy league mates throw another monkey wrench into the process. Oh, I know I draft poorly because at the end of the year, championship or not, I usually only have a few guys remaining from my original draft picks. Adjusted mid-season to compensate. Each year I try to get measurably better at drafting in this league. I am on a slow curve with that.One of the other things I have done to compensate for poor early drafting is to trade away those early picks for sound keepers. Then I wait until later rounds to grab pretty decent value across the board. It is still a crapshoot, although my later round picks usually stick around longer on my team. At least until I need to make that WW move that gets me to the championship game.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

just wanted to add....

for years I have been asking for a "post season" FBG VBD application that would allow us to see where all of the guys actually ended up, we could then compare that to our pre draft day cheatsheet and see how things compared.....not only would this let us see how good FBG is, but also where we made our own good and bad decisions....

plus an application like this would be great for guys that are starting up a new league or joining a new league....you would be able to plug in the scoring system and see how well guys would have done in that league the year before.....

example: my pre draft FBG VBD cheatsheet last year had Brandon Marshall ranked as the 42 WR.....but where did he really end up...?

Plug in actual stats from end of year, adn use that as your "projections".

thats just it, I don't want to sit and plug in stats (hello all day)....i would like an app that allows me to plug in MY scoring system and I get a report showing me how the guys ranked out....just like I do at the beginning of the year...