Do you weigh injury risk into your rankings? (1 Viewer)

[Burning Sensation]

When putting your rankings together, do you consider a players injury risk?

Talking about players potential for injury seems to be taboo around the shark pool. I was just wondering if i am the only one who considers a players risk of injury when putting my rankings together.

For example, LJ's value is going to depend on him getting alot of touches, and alot of his touches involves heavy contact, increasing his risk of injury. At the other end, MJD seems to be less likely to get hurt due to his lack of touches, and he rarely seems to take or give a big hit.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

And I weigh it with the value of the handcuff/back-ups as well - good or bad, cheap or costly.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

I don't. If someone is 100% healthy ala Adrian Peterson but say someone like Plaxico who is STILL bothered by ankle the injury than yes I do.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Here is a question, who is more likely to get hurt?

225 lb. RB who gets hit 20 times a game.

190 lb WR who gets hit 10 times a game.

170 Kicker who gets hit 1 time a game.

 

[CrossEyed]

I only take into account any current injuries. Predicting future injuries is a fool's game.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I only take into account any current injuries. Predicting future injuries is a fool's game.

So you think it is just as likely that MJD gets hurt than Larry Johnson this year?

 

[swirvenirvin]

Yes always, but when doing so I also do points per game, so even tho McNabb is projected equally with Cutler, he is getting 2 more points per game in my projections, depending on which league I am in would then determine if I take Cutler or McNabb

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I do not believe for one second....

that the "sharks" around FBG-land did not take into consideration Ahmans Greens propensity to gety injured... then did not take into consideration Chris Browns propensity to get injured when they ranked them. Even when they are/were healthy at the time.

 

[swirvenirvin]

I do not believe for one second....that the "sharks" around FBG-land did not take into consideration Ahmans Greens propensity to gety injured... then did not take into consideration Chris Browns propensity to get injured when they ranked them. Even when they are/were healthy at the time.

Exactly you pretty much have to

 

[Andy Herron]

I only take into account any current injuries. Predicting future injuries is a fool's game.

There ya go. Injuries can happen to "anybody" at "anytime." It's unpredictable.Peyton Manning is a perfect example presently.ETA: While you may want to take into account a player's history, it still doesn't assure you anything to bank on.While over the years Fred Taylor acquired the moniker "Fragile Fred," he went on to a 1000 yard season and the Pro Bowl...at the age of 30!All anybody wants to talk about is MJD. No knock on him, but I didn't see him at the Pro Bowl. Fred Taylor's still the starter in Jacksonville, by the way.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I only take into account any current injuries. Predicting future injuries is a fool's game.

There ya go. Injuries can happen to "anybody" at "anytime." It's unpredictable.Peyton Manning is a perfect example presently.ETA: While you may want to take into account a player's history, it still doesn't assure you anything to bank on.While over the years Fred Taylor acquired the moniker "Fragile Fred," he went on to a 1000 yard season and the Pro Bowl...at the age of 30!

And it effected damn near everyones ranking of him along the way.Including yours. (see the AGreen and CBrown example above).Which is the point. Of course, some guys never even catch a cold and have great years... after the fact. But rankings are prehand, not post.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I only take into account any current injuries. Predicting future injuries is a fool's game.

There ya go. Injuries can happen to "anybody" at "anytime." It's unpredictable.Peyton Manning is a perfect example presently.ETA: While you may want to take into account a player's history, it still doesn't assure you anything to bank on.

I dont so much base potential injuries on what happened in the past, but what might happen in the future.Wouldnt you agree the more violent the RB plays, the more likely he is to get hurt? Or the player who gets more touches? How is it RB's get hurt far more than kickers, despite being in much better physical condition?

 

[dmac37]

I tend to jump on some players with injury concerns. Last year picked up Portis and Holt on the cheap. This year I bought into the Cam effect and took McGahee as #16 RB and made sure to also get Rice.

Another gamble was to get Marshall on the cheap because of the suspension. Being it is the first few games there should be no injuries, no bye weeks, and your top bench player should be able to fill in, Driver for me.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I only take into account any current injuries. Predicting future injuries is a fool's game.

So you think it is just as likely that MJD gets hurt than Larry Johnson this year?

No, it's not as likely because if they both play 16 games, Larry Johnson will carry the ball more than MJD. Anytime you carry the ball more, your odds of getting hurt is more likely than someone who doesn't.

 

[Andy Herron]

I only take into account any current injuries. Predicting future injuries is a fool's game.

There ya go. Injuries can happen to "anybody" at "anytime." It's unpredictable.Peyton Manning is a perfect example presently.

ETA: While you may want to take into account a player's history, it still doesn't assure you anything to bank on.

While over the years Fred Taylor acquired the moniker "Fragile Fred," he went on to a 1000 yard season and the Pro Bowl...at the age of 30!

And it effected damn near everyones ranking of him along the way.Including yours. (see the AGreen and CBrown example above).

Excuse me?What are you talking about?

 

[Burning Sensation]

I only take into account any current injuries. Predicting future injuries is a fool's game.

There ya go. Injuries can happen to "anybody" at "anytime." It's unpredictable.Peyton Manning is a perfect example presently.ETA: While you may want to take into account a player's history, it still doesn't assure you anything to bank on.While over the years Fred Taylor acquired the moniker "Fragile Fred," he went on to a 1000 yard season and the Pro Bowl...at the age of 30!All anybody wants to talk about is MJD. No knock on him, but I didn't see him at the Pro Bowl. Fred Taylor's still the starter in Jacksonville, by the way.

I for one believe Taylor made the Pro Bowl due in large part to MJD. I am not sure Taylor could have been as productive as a full time back. I also think his potential for injury would have been greater had he had to carry the ball 300+ times.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

Of course, if you want to be good at FF I think you have to use all information when prognosticating - some people are just better at recognizing patterns than others. Like all things in life, there are certainly patterns to be observed and if you recognize them, you can gain a competitive advantage more often than not. Of course, nothing is absolute.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I only take into account any current injuries. Predicting future injuries is a fool's game.

So you think it is just as likely that MJD gets hurt than Larry Johnson this year?

No, it's not as likely because if they both play 16 games, Larry Johnson will carry the ball more than MJD. Anytime you carry the ball more, your odds of getting hurt is more likely than someone who doesn't.

Exactly, how anyone doesnt see this is beyond me.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I only take into account any current injuries. Predicting future injuries is a fool's game.

So you think it is just as likely that MJD gets hurt than Larry Johnson this year?

No, it's not as likely because if they both play 16 games, Larry Johnson will carry the ball more than MJD. Anytime you carry the ball more, your odds of getting hurt is more likely than someone who doesn't.

And if reasons occur that cause them both to carry the ball the same amount?

 

[Burning Sensation]

Of course, if you want to be good at FF I think you have to use all information when prognosticating - some people are just better at recognizing patterns than others. Like all things in life, there are certainly patterns to be observed and if you recognize them, you can gain a competitive advantage more often than not. Of course, nothing is absolute.

Couldnt have said it better myself, and trust me, i tried.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I only take into account any current injuries. Predicting future injuries is a fool's game.

So you think it is just as likely that MJD gets hurt than Larry Johnson this year?

No, it's not as likely because if they both play 16 games, Larry Johnson will carry the ball more than MJD. Anytime you carry the ball more, your odds of getting hurt is more likely than someone who doesn't.

And if reasons occur that cause them both to carry the ball the same amount?

In this case, LJ would still be more likely to get hurt, but the gap certainly tightens. LJ is older, and runs more physically, not to mention his oline is worse, and has more wear and tear/injuries over the last few years.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

Of course, if you want to be good at FF I think you have to use all information when prognosticating - some people are just better at recognizing patterns than others. Like all things in life, there are certainly patterns to be observed and if you recognize them, you can gain a competitive advantage more often than not. Of course, nothing is absolute.

Couldnt have said it better myself, and trust me, i tried.

Thank you (I think you were being serious)!

 

[Jerry Lawler]

Generally, I agree that predicting injuries is not worthwhile, but there are a few exceptions, primarily those noted already in this thread:

1) a player has a known injury that may be a factor when the regular season starts.

2) the player has a clear history of recurrent injuries that can't be ignored (Ahman Green, Chris Brown, and Chris Perry are good examples). I'll add that while my evaluations of these players are affected by injury, I'm certainly nowhere near writing them off. Chronically injured players often return to make significant contributions (Hearst, FTaylor). I'll also add that relatively few players are injured often enough that it affects my evaluations.

3) The player's role exposes him to high injury risk

The point of #3 is that I'm more worried about developing depth at the RB position because it's brutal, while I'm a little less nervous about QB and WR depth.

 

[Darth Cheney]

To a point. I'm also not a guy who says that I HAVE to take a player that has concern simply because he falls in the draft. There was alot of that in regards to Steven Jackson (in regards to his holdout and him dropping in drafts)

 

[Burning Sensation]

Of course, if you want to be good at FF I think you have to use all information when prognosticating - some people are just better at recognizing patterns than others. Like all things in life, there are certainly patterns to be observed and if you recognize them, you can gain a competitive advantage more often than not. Of course, nothing is absolute.

Couldnt have said it better myself, and trust me, i tried.

Thank you (I think you were being serious)!

I was, i attempted to say the same thing, but i am not very good at putting my thoughts into words.

 

[CrossEyed]

I only take into account any current injuries. Predicting future injuries is a fool's game.

So you think it is just as likely that MJD gets hurt than Larry Johnson this year?

No, it's not as likely because if they both play 16 games, Larry Johnson will carry the ball more than MJD. Anytime you carry the ball more, your odds of getting hurt is more likely than someone who doesn't.

Exactly, how anyone doesnt see this is beyond me.

Good point. I think I'll draft Tiki Barber. He's even less likely to get hurt. Seriously, trying to predict injuries just makes no sense to me. It's just impossible to do. As was discussed in another thread, Fred Taylor got collared with the fragile tag and then played something like 3 seasons without getting hurt. Injuries are random and flukey. Yeah, you can make the case that an older player might be more likely to get injured due to wear and tear, but even that doesn't necessarily hold true across the board.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Generally, I agree that predicting injuries is not worthwhile, but there are a few exceptions, primarily those noted already in this thread:

1) a player has a known injury that may be a factor when the regular season starts.

2) the player has a clear history of recurrent injuries that can't be ignored (Ahman Green, Chris Brown, and Chris Perry are good examples). I'll add that while my evaluations of these players are affected by injury, I'm certainly nowhere near writing them off. Chronically injured players often return to make significant contributions (Hearst, FTaylor). I'll also add that relatively few players are injured often enough that it affects my evaluations.

3) The player's role exposes him to high injury risk

The point of #3 is that I'm more worried about developing depth at the RB position because it's brutal, while I'm a little less nervous about QB and WR depth.

I have found myself reworking my dynasty teams towards QB's and WR's for this very reason.

 

[Moe Green]

Of course.

 

[Burning Sensation]

I only take into account any current injuries. Predicting future injuries is a fool's game.

So you think it is just as likely that MJD gets hurt than Larry Johnson this year?

No, it's not as likely because if they both play 16 games, Larry Johnson will carry the ball more than MJD. Anytime you carry the ball more, your odds of getting hurt is more likely than someone who doesn't.

Exactly, how anyone doesnt see this is beyond me.

Good point. I think I'll draft Tiki Barber. He's even less likely to get hurt. Seriously, trying to predict injuries just makes no sense to me. It's just impossible to do. As was discussed in another thread, Fred Taylor got collared with the fragile tag and then played something like 3 seasons without getting hurt. Injuries are random and flukey. Yeah, you can make the case that an older player might be more likely to get injured due to wear and tear, but even that doesn't necessarily hold true across the board.

It doesnt have to hold true across the board in order for it to be considered. MJD and MBII will probably end up with a similar amount of touches this year. However, i think Drew is a safer bet to play all 16 games. Of course this is not 100%, but even if it is 51%, isnt it worth taking into account?Edited to substitute the word touches for carries.