What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Domanick Davis (1 Viewer)

YPC is a TEAM number as much as an individual number when the individual is responsioble for 62% of the rushes - it'd be a whole nother matter if there WAS one guy with the bulk of the rushing stats - such as LT's 3.9, for example.

It's not my problem if you fail to understand that.
Great backs can transcend their situation. Kevin Jones did it last year. LaDainian Tomlinson did it in 2002 and 2003. Corey Dillon did it several times in Cincinnati. These guys have posted YPC averages in excess of 4.5 for some of the worst offenses in the league. I think that's the mark of an elite back. Supporting cast and blocking scheme certainly have an effect on YPC, but a great backs put up great averages in bad situations. Domanick Davis didn't do that last year. That leads me to believe that he's not an elite back.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I'm focusing on a combination of stats and personal evaluation. I don't think Domanick Davis stands out as an elite back statistically. He's done well from a fantasy standpoint, but that's the result of his situation. He hasn't had any serious competition for carries and he's been given the ball a lot for lack of a better option. I don't think he's an above average NFL starter and I think the team will continue to try to find other options at RB.
Dude, he was in the top 10 statistically...how is that not an "elite back"??Personal evaluation? You heard rumors? This sounds like conjecture. Please back it up with something.

You're starting to really lose it here.
well, my main problem with EBF's comments is he keeps saying "I think he's not an elite talent" or whatever, and has diddly plus squat to comment on his actual talent level. And then grabs stats to prove a point - when DD's stats - except YPC - is as high as any elite back in the league.Dp you have ANYthing to say on DD's ability? "He's a good pass catcher, but has limited moves in the open field once he gets the ball?" "he has a knack for th eendzone, but has limited ability to run off big gains" SOMEthing??
DD is not a great runner, however, he is great at receiving and getting in the endzone. That alone makes him valuable. My trouble is where to rank him. I have him pegged at #18 right now behind Jordan, the Jones', Dillon, Green and Rudi. He may outperform those guys, and more, but I'm not sold on his pure running ability and think if Morency plays well he could take over or at least turn it into RBBC.
 
You are making a horrid mistake overemphasizing ONE statistic in a vaccuum.
YPC is a very important stat. I realize that situation is a factor, but it still strikes me as troubling that DD was one of the worst performers in that category among the league's most highly-touted backs.
You have not established that any other RB would create a higher YPC in the same situation.
It would be impossible to establish that. Nevertheless, there have been plenty of historical examples of RBs putting up good YPC averages for bad teams. I made references to some examples in my most recent post.
This is an OL and a scxheme problem - not a talent level at RB problem.
That's your opinion. Domanick Davis was a fourth round pick with a mediocre career yard/carry average. I don't see a reason to believe that he is an above average talent.
Ricky Williams was subject to the vagaries of his OL and the Wannie scheme in 2003 - that does not mean Ricky was not a good RB. This was established conclusively by the craptacular performance of the 'phin OL in 2004.
Ricky was never a great NFL back, IMO. He had one huge year and three mediocre seasons. I don't think he's a particularly great example.
 
p.s. - since you are SO concerned with YPC numbers, EBF, let's look at the YPC numbers in Davis' SITUATION.I did not pick this time arbitrarily - the Texans' last 9 games was after a time when DD was no longer injured or coming back from injury, and it was after a time when the OL could congeal into a good unit, get used to the zone blocking scheme in gametime situations, and Davis and the OL could start to work together. You had Davis running numbers at:200 carries at 899 yards for a 4.49 YPC average.22.22 carries for 99.88 rush yards per game.That is BIG time elite RB numbers.

 
D.Davis is fortunate that they didn't have a high enough pick to grab one of the big 3 in the NFL draft.The stats on him can be manipulated either way to make him look good or bad. The numbers rarely tell the whole story. EBF made a solid argument showing his mediocrity using the numbers one way, Levin made a solid argument using the numbers in another way.Everyone evaluates players differently, I weigh what I see with my own eyes watching games more than looking at numbers which many times are the result of a players situation and opportunity, not necessarily their talent.IMO DD is an average RB in a good situation with lots of opportunity. He's the kind of RB who can be servicable, but if the Texans get in a position in the future to get a true stud RB they will not pass it up.For re-draft purposes DD is a solid play, I wouldn't touch him in a dynasty at his current value.

 
???  I haven't heard rumors or reports on the team disappointed w/Davis - link?  And, no, you missed the point here - the team allocated 480 rushes last year - DD getting 300 of them is EXTREMELY likely with Morecy getting his 10 per game.
I have heard rumors about them being disappointed with him.
:lmao: and you avoid any links or even an "I heard it on talk radio" comment - at least I found a relevant article that shows the team is NOT disappinted with DD but ARE worried about losing him next year.

:bs:
I don't write down links for everything that I read. However, I also don't make things up. I stand by my original response regarding this topic.
 
Personally, I've always thought YPC is one of the most over-rated stats in football. It's one that is often the easiest to manipulate and mislead in terms of evaluating a running back's ability or inability. But that's me.

 
YPC is a TEAM number as much as an individual number when the individual is responsioble for 62% of the rushes - it'd be a whole nother matter if there WAS one guy with the bulk of the rushing stats - such as LT's 3.9, for example.

It's not my problem if you fail to understand that.
Great backs can transcend their situation. Kevin Jones did it last year. LaDainian Tomlinson did it in 2002 and 2003. Corey Dillon did it several times in Cincinnati. These guys have posted YPC averages in excess of 4.5 for some of the worst offenses in the league. I think that's the mark of an elite back. Supporting cast and blocking scheme certainly have an effect on YPC, but a great backs put up great averages in bad situations. Domanick Davis didn't do that last year. That leads me to believe that he's not an elite back.
As I said, you have taken one number in a vaccum and are extrapolating - with NO supporting argument - once again - regarding what his "talent" is or is not. You have also completely ignored the fact that he was INJURED and coming back in several of th egames you have uised for statistical purtposes. You havemade the PRIME error FF stat geeks make - ignoring situation in favor of stats - and seemingly not using their eyes to evaluate talent.You have no defensible position here, EBF, with numbers. Let's talk talent b/c I have seen - and listed here - the NFL talent DD has. You have presented us with nothing on the issue.

 
I'm gonna go to bed now...but had to throw out the fact that during a 7 game strech last year between Kansas City and Green Bay Davis had less than 3 YPC. We won 4 of the 5 games in October in the games he had he only ran for 2.1 YPC. The team played arguably its best ball then. I wouldn't count on him touching the ball near as much this year.

September

09/26 @Kansas City W 24-21 Yes 10 12 1.2 6 0 1 15 15.0 15 0 0 0 0 0

October Rushing Receiving Fumbles

GAMEDATE Opp RESULT GS Att Yds Avg Lg TD Rec Yds Avg Lg TD Fum Rec Yds TD

10/03 Oakland W 30-17 Did Not Play

10/10 Minnesota L 28-34 Yes 14 31 2.2 6 1 4 31 7.8 19 0 0 0 0 0

10/17 @Tennessee W 20-10 Yes 10 25 2.5 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

10/31 Jacksonville W 20-6 Yes 22 56 2.5 8 0 5 39 7.8 18 0 0 0 0 0

November Rushing Receiving Fumbles

GAMEDATE Opp RESULT GS Att Yds Avg Lg TD Rec Yds Avg Lg TD Fum Rec Yds TD

11/07 @Denver L 13-31 Yes 19 71 3.7 10 2 2 19 9.5 10 0 0 0 0 0

11/14 @Indianapolis L 14-49 Yes 31 98 3.2 12 2 7 54 7.7 11 0 0 0 0 0

11/21 Green Bay L 13-16 Yes 21 65 3.1 11 0 6 41 6.8 11 1 0 0 0 0

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/395946/gamelogs/2004

 
Last edited by a moderator:
p.s. - since you are SO concerned with YPC numbers, EBF, let's look at the YPC numbers in Davis' SITUATION.

I did not pick this time arbitrarily - the Texans' last 9 games was after a time when DD was no longer injured or coming back from injury, and it was after a time when the OL could congeal into a good unit, get used to the zone blocking scheme in gametime situations, and Davis and the OL could start to work together. You had Davis running numbers at:

200 carries at 899 yards for a 4.49 YPC average.

22.22 carries for 99.88 rush yards per game.

That is BIG time elite RB numbers.
I agree that those are good numbers. I said that the best case for being pro-Davis is to argue that his poor 2004 YPC was a result of injury and that his numbers will improve next year now that he's healthy.
 
IMO DD is an average RB in a good situation with lots of opportunity.  He's the kind of RB who can be servicable, but if the Texans get in a position in the future to get a true stud RB they will not pass it up.
Why - I still have yet to see anyone define what makes hijm "averaghe"I have watched him play quite a bit the last two years, and I have seen a back with excellent balance, great use of his 5'9" 220 build to always fall forward and go through tackles, and incredible instincts, vision, and quickness to the hole in the OL.He also has demonstrably outstanding pass catching skills - and he blocks well.He is NOT a "one of a kind" bust your ankles talent. He is not going to make people miss, and he is rarely goign to burn 40 yard gains (he only had 5 carries over 20 yards of his 300 carries in 2004 - he can be brought down form behind, he is not goign to bust a nut on a play from his own side of the field) He IS going to get you positive yardage every time he touches the ball and the talents I listed above mean he is an EXCELLENT back for getting you the FD or the TD. (56 FDs, 13 TDs rushing on 300 carries is excellent production)Edit - on the idea they'll grab a RB talent if it is there - no duh. Vikes are as deep as a team can be at RB, and they'd have selected a top-3 back. Plus, as I mentioned, with DD being an RFA next year who the team expects to lose, it is not surprising that they are looking for other backs to add to the roster.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
As I said, you have taken one number in a vaccum and are extrapolating - with NO supporting argument - once again - regarding what his "talent" is or is not.
Here's a supporting argument:- He was a fourth round pick. I realize that great players sometimes fall in the draft and that draft position alone isn't enough to say a player isn't elite. Nevertheless, the fact remains that most fourth round picks aren't as talented as most first round picks.

- He has some of the worst measurables of any starting RB in the NFL. Davis was pitiful in workouts, running poor 40 times and putting up pedestrian numbers in the jumps.

- He has a mediocre career YPC for a starting NFL RB and has had a slew of awful games.

- He doesn't break long runs and he doesn't make people miss in the open field.

You have also completely ignored the fact that he was INJURED and coming back in several of th egames you have uised for statistical purtposes.
I've acknowledged that several times.
You havemade the PRIME error FF stat geeks make - ignoring situation in favor of stats - and seemingly not using their eyes to evaluate talent.

You have no defensible position here, EBF, with numbers. Let's talk talent b/c I have seen - and listed here - the NFL talent DD has. You have presented us with nothing on the issue.
I've presented you with plenty. You've chosen to accept the YPC as non-issue. That's fine, but don't act as if I haven't provided stats that support my position.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
IMO DD is an average RB in a good situation with lots of opportunity. He's the kind of RB who can be servicable, but if the Texans get in a position in the future to get a true stud RB they will not pass it up.
Why - I still have yet to see anyone define what makes hijm "averaghe"I have watched him play quite a bit the last two years, and I have seen a back with excellent balance, great use of his 5'9" 220 build to always fall forward and go through tackles, and incredible instincts, vision, and quickness to the hole in the OL.

He also has demonstrably outstanding pass catching skills - and he blocks well.

He is NOT a "one of a kind" bust your ankles talent. He is not going to make people miss, and he is rarely goign to burn 40 yard gains (he only had 5 carries over 20 yards of his 300 carries in 2004 - he can be brought down form behind, he is not goign to bust a nut on a play from his own side of the field)

He IS going to get you positive yardage every time he touches the ball and the talents I listed above mean he is an EXCELLENT back for getting you the FD or the TD. (56 FDs, 13 TDs rushing on 300 carries is excellent production)

Edit - on the idea they'll grab a RB talent if it is there - no duh. Vikes are as deep as a team can be at RB, and they'd have selected a top-3 back. Plus, as I mentioned, with DD being an RFA next year who the team expects to lose, it is not surprising that they are looking for other backs to add to the roster.
You answered the question for me. Bolded part.I don't think he sucks, I think he is servicable and can produce, but not excel, when given ample opportunity.

Teams will live with servicable....until they can get excellence. That is why I think DD is a decent play in a re-draft, but not a dynasty.

 
You answered the question for me. Bolded part.

I don't think he sucks, I think he is servicable and can produce, but not excel, when given ample opportunity.

Teams will live with servicable....until they can get excellence. That is why I think DD is a decent play in a re-draft, but not a dynasty.
That's almost exactly how I feel. The less special the back, the less likely he is to keep his workhorse role.
 
As I said, you have taken one number in a vaccum and are extrapolating - with NO supporting argument - once again - regarding what his "talent" is or is not. 
Here's a supporting argument:- He was a fourth round pick. I realize that great players sometimes fall in the draft and that draft position alone isn't enough to say a player isn't elite. Nevertheless, the fact remains that most fourth round picks aren't as talented as most first round picks.

- He has some of the worst measurables of any starting RB in the NFL. Davis was pitiful in workouts, running poor 40 times and putting up pedestrian numbers in the jumps.

- He has a mediocre career YPC for a starting NFL RB and has had a slew of awful games.

- He doesn't break long runs and he doesn't make people miss in the open field.

You have also completely ignored the fact that he was INJURED and coming back in several of th egames you have uised for statistical purtposes.
I've acknowledged that several times.
  You havemade the PRIME error FF stat geeks make - ignoring situation in favor of stats - and seemingly not using their eyes to evaluate talent.

You have no defensible position here, EBF, with numbers.  Let's talk talent b/c I have seen - and listed here - the NFL talent DD has.  You have presented us with nothing on the issue.
I've presented you with plenty. You've chosen to accept the YPC as non-issue. That's fine, but don't act as if I haven't provided stats that support my position.
This is the FIRST post you have made on his "talent" that goes beyong "I think he's average" - I have read every word and digested it, and this is the FIRST you have mentioned his "talent" with any substance.I acknowledge every point you made on talent - though it demonstrates a man concerned with numbers and not his eyes. What you have mentioned - draft spot and combine numbers - are now moot points as Davis has in game experience. I will be the first to admit he is not a speedster and wil be brought down from behind - his 5 runs over 20 yards out of 300 carries is pitiful - but that does NOT reflect a lack of talent in other areas that are significantly more important for a quality NFL RB.

Now address my points on his talent - and dispute them if you can. You won't b/c you can't- Davis is like Marcus Allen in getting positive yardage - that is not a "measurable" talent from the combines or draft stats, but are immeasurably more important for an NFL back. His lack of negative yardage carries, his high percentage of FDs and rush TDs inside the five, and several other stats indicate he is a forward progression back, and that he hits the hole hard and hits it well - an instinct that is VERY difficult to teach young backs.

 
IMO DD is an average RB in a good situation with lots of opportunity.  He's the kind of RB who can be servicable, but if the Texans get in a position in the future to get a true stud RB they will not pass it up.
Why - I still have yet to see anyone define what makes hijm "averaghe"I have watched him play quite a bit the last two years, and I have seen a back with excellent balance, great use of his 5'9" 220 build to always fall forward and go through tackles, and incredible instincts, vision, and quickness to the hole in the OL.

He also has demonstrably outstanding pass catching skills - and he blocks well.

He is NOT a "one of a kind" bust your ankles talent. He is not going to make people miss, and he is rarely goign to burn 40 yard gains (he only had 5 carries over 20 yards of his 300 carries in 2004 - he can be brought down form behind, he is not goign to bust a nut on a play from his own side of the field)

He IS going to get you positive yardage every time he touches the ball and the talents I listed above mean he is an EXCELLENT back for getting you the FD or the TD. (56 FDs, 13 TDs rushing on 300 carries is excellent production)

Edit - on the idea they'll grab a RB talent if it is there - no duh. Vikes are as deep as a team can be at RB, and they'd have selected a top-3 back. Plus, as I mentioned, with DD being an RFA next year who the team expects to lose, it is not surprising that they are looking for other backs to add to the roster.
You answered the question for me. Bolded part.I don't think he sucks, I think he is servicable and can produce, but not excel, when given ample opportunity.

Teams will live with servicable....until they can get excellence. That is why I think DD is a decent play in a re-draft, but not a dynasty.
So, you are in the "feast" category as the original point of this thread is to ask whether he should be a top redraft pick or a #20 redraft pick.EBF? Feast or famine?

 
As I said, you have taken one number in a vaccum and are extrapolating - with NO supporting argument - once again - regarding what his "talent" is or is not. 
Here's a supporting argument:- He was a fourth round pick. I realize that great players sometimes fall in the draft and that draft position alone isn't enough to say a player isn't elite. Nevertheless, the fact remains that most fourth round picks aren't as talented as most first round picks.

- He has some of the worst measurables of any starting RB in the NFL. Davis was pitiful in workouts, running poor 40 times and putting up pedestrian numbers in the jumps.

- He has a mediocre career YPC for a starting NFL RB and has had a slew of awful games.

- He doesn't break long runs and he doesn't make people miss in the open field.

You have also completely ignored the fact that he was INJURED and coming back in several of th egames you have uised for statistical purtposes.
I've acknowledged that several times.
  You havemade the PRIME error FF stat geeks make - ignoring situation in favor of stats - and seemingly not using their eyes to evaluate talent.

You have no defensible position here, EBF, with numbers.  Let's talk talent b/c I have seen - and listed here - the NFL talent DD has.  You have presented us with nothing on the issue.
I've presented you with plenty. You've chosen to accept the YPC as non-issue. That's fine, but don't act as if I haven't provided stats that support my position.
This is the big one for me. The truth is, DD is not a threat to defenses. Is it really a surprise that Carr is throwing off his back foot trying to avoid the rush and can't get the ball to one of the best young WR's in the game and is instead forced to throw dump off passes all day to DD? Until the Texans can get defenses to fear the running game at least a little bit, they will continue to have trouble passing the ball. This benefits DD, but is terrible for the team. As is, you have to figure that DD will be successful for FF, but if I'm running a team he's not the RB I want. Despite carrying the ball 302 times, he only had 26 rushes over 10 yards.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I acknowledge every point you made on talent - though it demonstrates a man concerned with numbers and not his eyes. What you have mentioned - draft spot and combine numbers - are now moot points as Davis has in game experience.
I'm going to disagree with you there. First off, my eyes haven't seen anything in Davis that suggest greatness. Secondly, game experience does not render draft position and combine numbers moot points. Cortez Hankton has game experience. Does that mean his measurables are suddenly irrelevant? That seems absurd. Domanick Davis has played some NFL games, but he still lacks top physical skills. I think that's important.
I will be the first to admit he is not a speedster and wil be brought down from behind - his 5 runs over 20 yards out of 300 carries is pitiful - but that does NOT reflect a lack of talent in other areas that are significantly more important for a quality NFL RB.
No, but it does represent some deficiencies. A flaw is a flaw. It seems sensible that the more flaws a particular player has, the more likely it is that one of his competitors will be less flawed (better all around). That's why every flaw increases a player's odds of being replaced, because they represent shortcomings in his game.
Now address my points on his talent - and dispute them if you can. You won't b/c you can't- Davis is like Marcus Allen in getting positive yardage - that is not a "measurable" talent from the combines or draft stats, but are immeasurably more important for an NFL back. His lack of negative yardage carries, his high percentage of FDs and rush TDs inside the five, and several other stats indicate he is a forward progression back, and that he hits the hole hard and hits it well - an instinct that is VERY difficult to teach young backs.

You could be right. Whether or not that is enough to hold a starting job remains to be seen. There have been a lot of good short yardage backs. They weren't all good starters. No one ever rushed out to sign Zack Crockett to be their featured runner.
 
IMO DD is an average RB in a good situation with lots of opportunity.  He's the kind of RB who can be servicable, but if the Texans get in a position in the future to get a true stud RB they will not pass it up.
Why - I still have yet to see anyone define what makes hijm "averaghe"I have watched him play quite a bit the last two years, and I have seen a back with excellent balance, great use of his 5'9" 220 build to always fall forward and go through tackles, and incredible instincts, vision, and quickness to the hole in the OL.

He also has demonstrably outstanding pass catching skills - and he blocks well.

He is NOT a "one of a kind" bust your ankles talent. He is not going to make people miss, and he is rarely goign to burn 40 yard gains (he only had 5 carries over 20 yards of his 300 carries in 2004 - he can be brought down form behind, he is not goign to bust a nut on a play from his own side of the field)

He IS going to get you positive yardage every time he touches the ball and the talents I listed above mean he is an EXCELLENT back for getting you the FD or the TD. (56 FDs, 13 TDs rushing on 300 carries is excellent production)

Edit - on the idea they'll grab a RB talent if it is there - no duh. Vikes are as deep as a team can be at RB, and they'd have selected a top-3 back. Plus, as I mentioned, with DD being an RFA next year who the team expects to lose, it is not surprising that they are looking for other backs to add to the roster.
You answered the question for me. Bolded part.I don't think he sucks, I think he is servicable and can produce, but not excel, when given ample opportunity.

Teams will live with servicable....until they can get excellence. That is why I think DD is a decent play in a re-draft, but not a dynasty.
So, you are in the "feast" category as the original point of this thread is to ask whether he should be a top redraft pick or a #20 redraft pick.EBF? Feast or famine?
I don't do my rankings like most people. I make lists of 3-4 players per round that I'd be happy with. I don't have a strong positive feeling on Davis, so he won't end up on any of my teams. I'd be more inclined to go in different directions in his draft range.
 
Despite carrying the ball 302 times, he only had 26 rushes over 10 yards.
Our of curiosity, where do you get those kind of stats? They're not on the ESPN/NFL player pages.
 
IMO DD is an average RB in a good situation with lots of opportunity.  He's the kind of RB who can be servicable, but if the Texans get in a position in the future to get a true stud RB they will not pass it up.
Why - I still have yet to see anyone define what makes hijm "averaghe"I have watched him play quite a bit the last two years, and I have seen a back with excellent balance, great use of his 5'9" 220 build to always fall forward and go through tackles, and incredible instincts, vision, and quickness to the hole in the OL.

He also has demonstrably outstanding pass catching skills - and he blocks well.

He is NOT a "one of a kind" bust your ankles talent. He is not going to make people miss, and he is rarely goign to burn 40 yard gains (he only had 5 carries over 20 yards of his 300 carries in 2004 - he can be brought down form behind, he is not goign to bust a nut on a play from his own side of the field)

He IS going to get you positive yardage every time he touches the ball and the talents I listed above mean he is an EXCELLENT back for getting you the FD or the TD. (56 FDs, 13 TDs rushing on 300 carries is excellent production)

Edit - on the idea they'll grab a RB talent if it is there - no duh. Vikes are as deep as a team can be at RB, and they'd have selected a top-3 back. Plus, as I mentioned, with DD being an RFA next year who the team expects to lose, it is not surprising that they are looking for other backs to add to the roster.
You answered the question for me. Bolded part.I don't think he sucks, I think he is servicable and can produce, but not excel, when given ample opportunity.

Teams will live with servicable....until they can get excellence. That is why I think DD is a decent play in a re-draft, but not a dynasty.
But that is not "serviceable" That is a talent. Looking at the Henry/McG situaiton as an example, I don't doubt the team would upgrade to a one of a kind talent, but that does not mean Henry is not a talented NFL back. Same with DD - I could easily see him being replaced if the team gets a one-of-a kind talent. That's what one of a kind talents give you - one of a kind talent.DD is not one of a kind - but he is most certainly "talented" and not "average." That his talents aren't the kind of talents we drool over is not a reason to say he is "average" or "serviceable." FAR more teams have average backs in starting roles - Reuben Droughns, Kevan Barlow, Lamar Gordon - those are "average" backs.

Backs like Henry and Davis - who are not flashy - are not lacking "talent" - they just have different talents.

 
Despite carrying the ball 302 times, he only had 26 rushes over 10 yards.
Our of curiosity, where do you get those kind of stats? They're not on the ESPN/NFL player pages.
Dr. Doug Drinen - check out footballguys.com every so often.We have more toys than any FF geek could every want, but you will need a subscription to keepo accessing Drinen's tool. :lmao:

 
Good topic. Maybe I don't follow Houston closely enough to know that they are really desperate to replace Davis, but it seems odd to me that people talk about replacing a productive runner with anything short of a stud. Vernand Morency doesn't strike me as a stud, although I know a lot of people were high on him going into the draft. Am I missing something here?

Now to go way off topic for a second:

15 games-298carries-1,168 yards-3.92YPC
Can I ask why people do this? (snip)
Another reason you see it is because when some of us do projections, we do them for the entire team at the same time. We start with how many runs and passes we think the team will have as a whole, and then divy them up amongst the players on the team from there. Normally the team's number of touches are a whole number, and if I go with a percentage for how much one player will get, I'll leave the number as is instead of rounding.
 
So, you are in the "feast" category as the original point of this thread is to ask whether he should be a top redraft pick or a #20 redraft pick.EBF? Feast or famine?
One of the main things I weigh when picking my #1 RB is whether he is a shoe in to get his job back if he misses a couple games and the replacement performs very well.Guys like LT/Edge/Alexander/etc, in other words the elite RB's, are in no danger of losing their job if they miss a few games during the season.It is my opinion that if DD misses a couple games and his replacement excels that he is not a shoe in to return to his role as a feature RB (it could turn into a RBBC in that scenerio), so I would not be comfortable with him as my #1 RB.I'm not a "value" drafter in the sense I don't draft players I don't like, but if I had to make a ranking list for a re-draft i'd put him around the #15 ranked RB or so.
 
Now address my points on his talent - and dispute them if you can.  You won't b/c you can't- Davis is like Marcus Allen in getting positive yardage - that is not a "measurable" talent from the combines or draft stats, but are immeasurably more important for an NFL back. His lack of negative yardage carries, his high percentage of FDs and rush TDs inside the five, and several other stats indicate he is a forward progression back, and that he hits the hole hard and hits it well - an instinct that is VERY difficult to teach young backs.

You could be right. Whether or not that is enough to hold a starting job remains to be seen. There have been a lot of good short yardage backs. They weren't all good starters. No one ever rushed out to sign Zack Crockett to be their featured runner.
LOL - you may be right there on short yardage backs, but, IMO, DD demonstates a lot more than short yardage ability - as I said, he has balance and vision and doesn't get taken down in the backfield. Some of the most talented backs in the league never seemed to develop that properly - Quentin Griffin, for instance, is an amazing "talent" and had loads of measurables - heck, folks on these boards and commentators once he became the starter were comparing his moves to Barry Sanders - then he started getting tackled in the backfield a lot and not making quick decisions to the hole - and lost his job to a truly average back in Reuben Droughns before going down with injury for the year.
 
I will probably knock one or two TDs off DD's total from last year, but I wouldn't have a big problem with people thinking he'll do about the same. Capers runs the ball in the red zone. 65% of Houston's plays in the red zone were runs, which is 4th most in the league behind Pittsburgh (73%), Arizona (70%) and Atlanta (66%). It's also the reason why I'm more pessimistic on Andre Johnson than many people are.

 
Despite carrying the ball 302 times, he only had 26 rushes over 10 yards.
Our of curiosity, where do you get those kind of stats? They're not on the ESPN/NFL player pages.
LinkFrom what I found, DD has the worst percentage of rushes over 10 yards.
no shocker - 5 rushes over 20 yards out of 301 (a stat available at NFL.com) would indicate few rushes over 10 yeards, too.
 
So, you are in the "feast" category as the original point of this thread is to ask whether he should be a top redraft pick or a #20 redraft pick.

EBF?  Feast or famine?
One of the main things I weigh when picking my #1 RB is whether he is a shoe in to get his job back if he misses a couple games and the replacement performs very well.Guys like LT/Edge/Alexander/etc, in other words the elite RB's, are in no danger of losing their job if they miss a few games during the season.

It is my opinion that if DD misses a couple games and his replacement excels that he is not a shoe in to return to his role as a feature RB (it could turn into a RBBC in that scenerio), so I would not be comfortable with him as my #1 RB.

I'm not a "value" drafter in the sense I don't draft players I don't like, but if I had to make a ranking list for a re-draft i'd put him around the #15 ranked RB or so.
Gotcha - I wonder why you think this though. There is not a more talented back on the roster - and if DD is hurt, there WILL be a RBBC situation for a while, but as last year and the year before proved, DD will get the 20 carry a game start back - just look at the game stats the last two years around when he missed time.In a redraft, anyone not placing him in their top-15 RBs is making a foolish foolish decision (or they have already written DD off for 4-6 games this year).

 
So, you are in the "feast" category as the original point of this thread is to ask whether he should be a top redraft pick or a #20 redraft pick.EBF?  Feast or famine?
One of the main things I weigh when picking my #1 RB is whether he is a shoe in to get his job back if he misses a couple games and the replacement performs very well.
In this vein - you must have less than 12 RB1s listed then - I can't think of more than 10 who would automatically get their job back if the replacement performed as well or better.
 
Gotcha - I wonder why you think this though. There is not a more talented back on the roster - and if DD is hurt, there WILL be a RBBC situation for a while, but as last year and the year before proved, DD will get the 20 carry a game start back - just look at the game stats the last two years around when he missed time.

In a redraft, anyone not placing him in their top-15 RBs is making a foolish foolish decision (or they have already written DD off for 4-6 games this year).
For the record, I don't like Vernand Morency nor do I think he'd necessarily do a better job than DD. That said, I think you're too quick to brush him aside. Keep in mind that he was a productive player in college and he was drafted higher than Davis.
 
Good topic.  Maybe I don't follow Houston closely enough to know that they are really desperate to replace Davis, but it seems odd to me that people talk about replacing a productive runner with anything short of a stud.  Vernand Morency doesn't strike me as a stud, although I know a lot of people were high on him going into the draft.  Am I missing something here? 

Now to go way off topic for a second:

15 games-298carries-1,168 yards-3.92YPC
Can I ask why people do this? (snip)
Another reason you see it is because when some of us do projections, we do them for the entire team at the same time. We start with how many runs and passes we think the team will have as a whole, and then divy them up amongst the players on the team from there. Normally the team's number of touches are a whole number, and if I go with a percentage for how much one player will get, I'll leave the number as is instead of rounding.
:thumbup: That's what Joe and David do.

 
Gotcha - I wonder why you think this though. There is not a more talented back on the roster - and if DD is hurt, there WILL be a RBBC situation for a while, but as last year and the year before proved, DD will get the 20 carry a game start back - just look at the game stats the last two years around when he missed time.

In a redraft, anyone not placing him in their top-15 RBs is making a foolish foolish decision (or they have already written DD off for 4-6 games this year).
For the record, I don't like Vernand Morency nor do I think he'd necessarily do a better job than DD. That said, I think you're too quick to brush him aside. Keep in mind that he was a productive player in college and he was drafted higher than Davis.
I'm not brushing him aside - I assume he will have anywhere from 5-10 carries every game - but on a team that allocates 450+ rushes a year, DD missing 2 games or so won't likely be replaced. DD missing half the year, OTOH . . .
 
DD reminds me of Priest his 1st year on KC. The same arguments were made against Priest, he was undrafted, the Ravens let him go, he doesn't break long runs, and a lot of people (me included) missed the boat. I have since changed my thinking when it comes to Rb's, situation/scheme is the most important part of the equation for a RB, not YPC, not when they were drafted, not whether they can break long runs. It took a little while for Priest to make believers of nearly everyone and I think it will take another stud year from DD to put this argument to bed.

 
DD is just never going to get any respect - Last year it was the long "Hollings is going to take over" thread and now this. Please keep bashing him and other players I like - I have DD, Curtis and Lamont in my main keeper league at a very reasonable price! Thank you bashers!

 
So, you are in the "feast" category as the original point of this thread is to ask whether he should be a top redraft pick or a #20 redraft pick.

EBF? Feast or famine?
One of the main things I weigh when picking my #1 RB is whether he is a shoe in to get his job back if he misses a couple games and the replacement performs very well.
In this vein - you must have less than 12 RB1s listed then - I can't think of more than 10 who would automatically get their job back if the replacement performed as well or better.
Yes, I agree, there are less than 12 RB's I feel totally comfortable with as my RB1.Here are the RB's I would draft before DD in no exact order.

LT

Alexander

Edge

Portis

McAllister

K.Jones

McGahee

Barber

J.Lewis

A.Green

Holmes

S.Jackson

Dillon

Martin

T.Bell

L.Jordan

R.Johnson

J.Jones

F.Taylor (As long as he plays in a couple pre-season games)

R.Brown

I didn't realize it on first look, but I guess i'm one of the foolish ones who has him out of my top 20. I don't think anyone is wrong for ranking him higher, I just have a different opinion of him than most.

 
Otis is prejudiced (and foolish).

Any back who is used for 300 carries and nearly 70 receptions is going to be an integral part of the team's upcoming season and won't lose his job to "performance" ater scoring 14 total TDs.
He WILL lose his job to performance if it's 2nd and 8 everytime they hand the ball off to him on 1st down. Thing is, there's no one on the roster that can replace him right now.
24 RBs had 100 or more carries in 1st and 10 situations. Dom Davis' 3.95 ypc ranked 19th, behind LT and ahead of Warrick Dunn.Tiki Barber, Kevin Jones and Corey Dillon were the top three; Emmitt Smith, Jerome Bettis and Kevan Barlow were the bottom three.

 
p.s. - since you are SO concerned with YPC numbers, EBF, let's look at the YPC numbers in Davis' SITUATION.

I did not pick this time arbitrarily - the Texans' last 9 games was after a time when DD was no longer injured or coming back from injury, and it was after a time when the OL could congeal into a good unit, get used to the zone blocking scheme in gametime situations, and Davis and the OL could start to work together. You had Davis running numbers at:

200 carries at 899 yards for a 4.49 YPC average.

22.22 carries for 99.88 rush yards per game.

That is BIG time elite RB numbers.
He was the number one fantasy RB by a large margin over that time. His 43 catches were tops among RBs.190 FPs to Dillon's 167.

 
I knew Tomlinson would come up sooner or later. I remember reading that he was playing at roughly 60% last year. That seems believable given the decline from the previous two seasons, when he'd averaged 4.85 YPC.

Domanick Davis is not LaDainain Tomlinson. Tomlinson was clearly below 100% for a large portion of 2004. However, he's shown that he's a high YPC guy when fully healthy. Davis showed flashes of entering that category as a rookie, but he regressed last year. I understand that he may also have been dealing with injuries, but the fact remains that he doesn't have the track record that LT does. He also doesn't have the top 5 pedigree working in his favor.
EBF, usually you're pretty insightful and informed. In this case, you seem to be ignoring the fact that DD was also knicked up and at <80% himself for a stretch of 3-5 games. Add to this the - previously mentioned - switch to a zone blocking scheme, and there are quite a number of issues/reasons why a cornerstone stat like YPC is low this year. Let me grab what I've got for his stats from 2003...GAMEDATE Opp RESULT GS Att Yds Avg Lg TD Rec Yds Avg Lg TD

19-Oct New York L 14-19 Yes 27 129 4.8 16 0 9 70 7.8 12 0

26-Oct @Indianapolis L 21-30 Yes 25 109 4.4 27 2 7 27 3.9 8 0

2-Nov Carolina W 14-10 Yes 12 74 6.2 23 0 1 -3 -3 -3 0

9-Nov @Cincinnati L 27-34 Yes 15 104 6.9 51 1 1 11 11 11 0

16-Nov @Buffalo W 12-10 Yes 26 68 2.6 18 0 3 33 11 16 0

23-Nov New England L 20-23 Yes 24 69 2.9 14 0 1 6 6 6 0

30-Nov Atlanta W 17-13 Yes 24 101 4.2 14 2 2 27 13.5 15 0

Totals:: 153 654 4.274509804 51 5 24 171 7.125 16 0

This is from the stretch of time he became the starter, to when he sprained his ankle. In those weeks, I believe he was the #2-3 RB over that span. Putting up numbers just shy of Priest on his record tear. And had a YPC of 4.2+. DD is ideal for Capers system, and will continue to get every opportunity to be the centerpiece of that offense.

You can make as many arguments about talent as you want to, but the bottom line is, DD gets it done in Houston. Personally, I think - when healthy - he's extremely "football" talented.

PS: sorry for poor formatting on the table. How the heck do you guys put in the custom looking tables? Is it a UBF code of some sort??

 
On a per touch (opportunity) basis, Thomas Jones was very similar to Domanick Davis last year. The only major difference is that one player touched the ball far more often than the other. That's my point. One is not significantly better than the other. One simply had more opportunities.
Absolutely false. Let's look at the stats in a standard scoring league. Thomas Jones had 240 carries and 56 receptions for 290 touches and a total of 167 Fantasty Points. That comes to .56 fantasy points per touch.

DD had 302 carries and 69 recpetions for 371 touches and scored 249 fantasy points for .67 points per touch.

That's a .11 difference or about 19.6% more points per carry than Thomas Jones scored.

Based on your baseball argument DD would have had to score only 208 points (.56 per touch) to be equivalent to TJ but with more carries.

I'll take DD's increased carries and 20% higher point per touch average over TJ all day long. Somebody is looking at the wrong stats and it's you.....

 
p.s. - since you are SO concerned with YPC numbers, EBF, let's look at the YPC numbers in Davis' SITUATION.

I did not pick this time arbitrarily - the Texans' last 9 games was after a time when DD was no longer injured or coming back from injury, and it was after a time when the OL could congeal into a good unit, get used to the zone blocking scheme in gametime situations, and Davis and the OL could start to work together.  You had Davis running numbers at:

200 carries at 899 yards for a 4.49 YPC average.

22.22 carries for 99.88 rush yards per game.

That is BIG time elite RB numbers.
He was the number one fantasy RB by a large margin over that time. His 43 catches were tops among RBs.190 FPs to Dillon's 167.
You are absoultely dead on, I had Dillon and Davis as my 2 RBs and they carried me to an 8 game winning streak to win my league's Super Bowl.Davis was phenomal once he got healthy including a huge game in a 21-0 win, 31-158 1TD and 4-31 receiving, against a good Jacksonville (9th best in FP Allowed for RBs) defense when Jacksonville was still in the playoff hunt.

 
Here's a supporting argument:- He was a fourth round pick. I realize that great players sometimes fall in the draft and that draft position alone isn't enough to say a player isn't elite. Nevertheless, the fact remains that most fourth round picks aren't as talented as most first round picks.
Dumb argument. So tom Brady sucks because he was picked on day two? We're not talking about a rookie.
- He has some of the worst measurables of any starting RB in the NFL. Davis was pitiful in workouts, running poor 40 times and putting up pedestrian numbers in the jumps.
Can you show me a link to this? I'm getting tired of generalizations with no support. Still waiting on that link to the coaches being dissatisfied with him.
- He has a mediocre career YPC for a starting NFL RB and has had a slew of awful games.
He's had some injury problems and when other runners fill in for him they do no better on this stat. That screams that stat may have something to do with something outside of him, like, maybe the O-Line that has some protection and blocking scheme issues. Do you think having to break a lot of tackles in the backfield might somehow increase his proclivity to injury?
- He doesn't break long runs and he doesn't make people miss in the open field.
It's hard to get out into the open field with poor blocking. It's not like he has Emmitt Smith's line from the Cowboys' hay days....They bolstered the line which now will have a second year under it's belt with this new blocking scheme they are using and DD flat out dominated the league in the second half last year. The only reason to knock this guy down a notch is his injury history. But he has finished 2 seasons strong. I'll take that because when it counts the guy gets it done.
 
Davis was phenomal once he got healthy including a huge game in a 21-0 win, 31-158 1TD and 4-31 receiving, against a good Jacksonville (9th best in FP Allowed for RBs) defense when Jacksonville was still in the playoff hunt.
The Texans, meanwhile, moved the ball with ease. They finished with 333 yards, much of it thanks to Davis. His previous career high was 129 yards, set last season against the New York Jets and tied last month against Tennessee.Davis also caught five passes for 39 yards.

"You missed one tackle with that guy, and it was like he was out of the gate," Jags linebacker Mike Peterson said.

 
The only reason to knock this guy down a notch is his injury history.  But he has finished 2 seasons strong.  I'll take that because when it counts the guy gets it done.
Once the Texans are safely out of the playoff hunt?
I could care less about the hopes and dreams of the playoffs of the Houston Texans. But at the end of the season when I'm in the playoffs he gets the job done. Last I checked I didn't get points if the NFL team my RB is on makes the playoffs much less is in "the playoff hunt." What is the point of bringing that up? Seriously, bring something relevant or just don't post.....

 
So, you are in the "feast" category as the original point of this thread is to ask whether he should be a top redraft pick or a #20 redraft pick.

EBF?  Feast or famine?
It is my opinion that if DD misses a couple games and his replacement excels that he is not a shoe in to return to his role as a feature RB (it could turn into a RBBC in that scenerio), so I would not be comfortable with him as my #1 RB.
When DD missd time last year , Wells put up a couple of 100yd games did he not? DD came back and got his job. I don't recall, did Wells get hurt, forcing them to put DD back in?
 
Last edited:
No, Wells was never hurt.  He just isn't much of a back.
No, but didn't he have better games that DD up to that point in the season?
 
Last edited:
On a per touch (opportunity) basis, Thomas Jones was very similar to Domanick Davis last year. The only major difference is that one player touched the ball far more often than the other. That's my point. One is not significantly better than the other. One simply had more opportunities.
Absolutely false. Let's look at the stats in a standard scoring league. Thomas Jones had 240 carries and 56 receptions for 290 touches and a total of 167 Fantasty Points. That comes to .56 fantasy points per touch.

DD had 302 carries and 69 recpetions for 371 touches and scored 249 fantasy points for .67 points per touch.

That's a .11 difference or about 19.6% more points per carry than Thomas Jones scored.

Based on your baseball argument DD would have had to score only 208 points (.56 per touch) to be equivalent to TJ but with more carries.

I'll take DD's increased carries and 20% higher point per touch average over TJ all day long. Somebody is looking at the wrong stats and it's you.....
I'm talking about yards, not fantasy points. Jones had a higher YPC with arguably a worse supporting cast. Davis had a higher YPT due to catches, but their wasn't a huge difference.
 
On a per touch (opportunity) basis, Thomas Jones was very similar to Domanick Davis last year. The only major difference is that one player touched the ball far more often than the other. That's my point. One is not significantly better than the other. One simply had more opportunities.
Absolutely false. Let's look at the stats in a standard scoring league. Thomas Jones had 240 carries and 56 receptions for 290 touches and a total of 167 Fantasty Points. That comes to .56 fantasy points per touch.

DD had 302 carries and 69 recpetions for 371 touches and scored 249 fantasy points for .67 points per touch.

That's a .11 difference or about 19.6% more points per carry than Thomas Jones scored.

Based on your baseball argument DD would have had to score only 208 points (.56 per touch) to be equivalent to TJ but with more carries.

I'll take DD's increased carries and 20% higher point per touch average over TJ all day long. Somebody is looking at the wrong stats and it's you.....
I'm talking about yards, not fantasy points. Jones had a higher YPC with arguably a worse supporting cast. Davis had a higher YPT due to catches, but their wasn't a huge difference.
The whole comparison is kind of silly. Jones can't have been that great since he lost his job and DD didn't.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top