Domanick Davis (2 Viewers)

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

What does all this mean? It means I'm not yet prepared to conclude that he's not a fluke. It's too early in his career. If he comes out and rushes for 1300 yards at 4.3 YPC next year then I'll be sold. As it stands now I still see him as a player whose prospects generally don't justify his draft position, particularly in dynasty leagues.

And what if in 2005 DD only rushes for about 70 yards per game on average over 16 games? That comes out to a measley 1100 yards but he also catches 700 yards in the air and finishes with 1800 total yards but only has a 4.0 YPC? What would you think of DD then?

I'd think **** Vermeil would love him.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Wait, you told me that draft position was important AFTER we've seen them play.  So, AA isn't too damn strong when KKQQ is on the board now, is it.I'd say a better analogy is when it's before the flop.  Then the cards come, and you either have a ####ty hand or a good one.  There's no looking back at how good your cards were before, because it doesn't matter anymore.  That's precisely how the draft is.  Once a guy has proven himself on the field to be a great competitor or a lousy one, where he was drafted is no longer of any importance.

I was using the poker analogy to refute statements such as these:

No' date=' it's not. Draft position is not a factor to consider for whether a player is good or bad in the NFL, it's only a factor to reflect whether he was good/bad in college.[/quote']

It doesn't always show it. But draft position is NEVER a guarantee on NFL success. Ever. It's always a reflection on their college careers as a whole.

Give me Cleveland's last 6 first round picks' date=' and tell me how it correlated to their respective NFL careers.[/quote']

Let me rephrase. If you're picked 200th' date=' you probably will suck in the NFL' date=' but if you're picked 1st, it doesn't predict jack ####.[/quote'']

So' date=' then, what's the explanation for all the failed picks?I've already said it's NOT much of a predictor. Prove me wrong with something other than the obvious.[/quote']

As for how draft position relates to Domanick Davis, I already covered that in this thread.

It's still early in DD's career. As a result' date=' I still keep his draft position in the back of my mind when I evaluate his prospects. The best way to explain this is to use the example of the breakout WR. If a WR struggles in his first two years then you might be inclined to write him off on the basis of poor production. However, if the WR was a high draft pick then there is a good chance that he will still be chosen relatively high in fantasy drafts. This is because people know about his pedigree and understand that his first two years in the league might not necessarily reflect his ability.

Likewise, if an unheralded player enters the league and has some success then I'll still consider the possibility that his unexpected performance has been a fluke. This is because I know about his pedigree and understand that his first two years in the league might not necessarily reflect his ability.

I realize that this is not a perfect analogy, but it's the best way I can explain my reasoning.[/quote']

Draft position is something that I loosely consider, particularly in cases when a highly-touted player has yet to emerge or when a low draft pick surprises. I look at a few things in the case of the low draft pick who surprises:

1. Does he have the same kind of physical skills that the top players at his position have? (i.e. does he pass the measurables test) (NOTE: This doesn't really apply to QBs because measurables are of a lesser importance at that position)

2. Does he look like the real deal?

3. Has he produced when given the opportunity?

A good example of someone who passes this test is Randy McMichael. He was a fourth round pick, but he has the same kind of athletic skills that you see in first round TEs. He's produced like an above average player and he generally looks like the real deal.

Domanick Davis, on the other hand, does not meet all of my criteria. He doesn't have the same kind of physical skills that most of the top RBs have. He doesn't look exceptional to me during games. He has had pretty good production, but he's been inconsistent in some of the areas that I personally deem important.

What does all this mean? It means I'm not yet prepared to conclude that he's not a fluke. It's too early in his career. If he comes out and rushes for 1300 yards at 4.3 YPC next year then I'll be sold. As it stands now I still see him as a player whose prospects generally don't justify his draft position, particularly in dynasty leagues.

Blah blah blah. The guy's draft position is pointless. He's proven that regardless of where he was taken, he's a player. Come up with all the bad analogies you want. Your point about draft position AFTER they play in the NFL is stupid.

 

[EBF]

Blah blah blah. The guy's draft position is pointless. He's proven that regardless of where he was taken, he's a player. Come up with all the bad analogies you want. Your point about draft position AFTER they play in the NFL is stupid.

You really haven't put forth much of an argument to justify your beliefs. If you don't believe that draft position is relevant once a player has played in the NFL then do you consider Jamaar Taylor a more valuable dynasty prospect than Michael Jenkins? Taylor had more catches and receiving yards as a rookie. Nevermind the fact that Jenkins was drafted 130+ slots higher. According to your logic, Taylor appears to be the better prospect based on performance. Should drafters ignore the difference in pedigree now that each of these WRs has played a down? That seems to be what you're suggesting.

I disagree with your contention that Davis has proven that he's "a player." He's shown promise, but he has yet to put forth an exceptional season (I don't consider last year's season exceptional from an NFL standpoint).

I already explained why I still consider draft position when evaluating Domanick Davis. He hasn't done enough to show me that he's long term featured back material, so I have to consider the possibility that he's a marginal talent excelling in fantasy football due to unlikely circumstances. That he was drafted in the fourth round seems to hint that this might be the case.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Blah blah blah. The guy's draft position is pointless. He's proven that regardless of where he was taken, he's a player. Come up with all the bad analogies you want. Your point about draft position AFTER they play in the NFL is stupid.

If you don't believe that draft position is relevant once a player has played in the NFL then do you consider Jamaar Taylor a more valuable dynasty prospect than Michael Jenkins? Taylor had more catches and receiving yards as a rookie. Nevermind the fact that Jenkins was drafted 130+ slots higher. According to your logic, Taylor appears to be the better prospect based on performance. Should drafters ignore the difference in pedigree now that each of these WRs has played a down? That seems to be what you're suggesting.

I think there's a certain tipping point with production. Once a guy has proven he is productive over a numbers of seasons, draft position is mostly irrelevant. In your example however, you have two guy with virtually zero NFL production. In that particular case, I'd lean heavily towards draft position in addition to team situation. DD isn't a guy with near zero production however.

I disagree with your contention that Davis has proven that he's "a player." He's shown promise, but he has yet to put forth an exceptional season (I don't consider last year's season exceptional from an NFL standpoint).

I think this is a huge for separating "sharks" from "guppies". It seems some are content to fall back on the argument "oh well he was ranked X last year so that's good enough for me" (sounds like a cop out to true discussion to me).Well that may be true of last year, but you have to take a team's needs into consideration. Is DD like Travis Henry and A-Train? A marginal guy who can hold the position down for a while until they find their real guy, or is he THE guy that the team wants.

Also, is the team content with a marginal guy at the RB position because they feel it's a plug and play situation and it allows them to spend more money on coveted positions like OT, WR, QB etc.

I think if you aren't asking yourself those questions, you aren't evaluating the situation properly. You have to approach your FF analysis from NFL terms. I doubt Dom Capers looks at his stat sheet and thinks it's okay to be 2nd and 8 everytime he hands the ball to DD because he scores well in a PPR fantasy league.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

I think this is a huge for separating "sharks" from "guppies". It seems some are content to fall back on the argument "oh well he was ranked X last year so that's good enough for me" (sounds like a cop out to true discussion to me).

Interesting. I guess you consider yourself a "shark."Go ahead, overthink it. That's fine with me. Maybe you should pick Couch up off the waiver wire. He was a #1 pick and all.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

If you don't believe that draft position is relevant once a player has played in the NFL then do you consider Jamaar Taylor a more valuable dynasty prospect than Michael Jenkins? Taylor had more catches and receiving yards as a rookie. Nevermind the fact that Jenkins was drafted 130+ slots higher. According to your logic, Taylor appears to be the better prospect based on performance. Should drafters ignore the difference in pedigree now that each of these WRs has played a down? That seems to be what you're suggesting.

That's what I'm suggesting. In the circumstances these two players are currently in, Jamaar Taylor is the better prospect. Give Jenkins a quarterback who can throw the ball...well, now we have a different story.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Maybe you should pick Couch up off the waiver wire. He was a #1 pick and all.

So that proves you either didn't read what I posted or just want to dodge the discussion entirely with a cop out. Your choice, doesn't affect me at all.

 

[Marc Levin]

If you don't believe that draft position is relevant once a player has played in the NFL then

the contrary points include teams cutting former first round level talents such as David Terrell and Freddie Mitchell and sticking with guys for their second WRs who were drafted MUCH lower - the Bears replaced first round Terrell with Muhammed, who, IIRC, was drafted in the 3rd or 4th.Dtraft position is irrelevent once th eplayer straps on the pads - the only thing draft position guarantees is that the player will be given more chances to succeed since the team invested a much higher price in him.NFL talent is not equivelant to NFL draft position. Priest, undrafted, LT, top-5 of the first round - yet they are comparable NFL talents now that they've strapped on the pads.

 

[Marc Levin]

I disagree with your contention that Davis has proven that he's "a player." He's shown promise, but he has yet to put forth an exceptional season (I don't consider last year's season exceptional from an NFL standpoint).

I think this is a huge for separating "sharks" from "guppies". It seems some are content to fall back on the argument "oh well he was ranked X last year so that's good enough for me" (sounds like a cop out to true discussion to me).Well that may be true of last year, but you have to take a team's needs into consideration. Is DD like Travis Henry and A-Train? A marginal guy who can hold the position down for a while until they find their real guy, or is he THE guy that the team wants.

Also, is the team content with a marginal guy at the RB position because they feel it's a plug and play situation and it allows them to spend more money on coveted positions like OT, WR, QB etc.

I think if you aren't asking yourself those questions, you aren't evaluating the situation properly. You have to approach your FF analysis from NFL terms. I doubt Dom Capers looks at his stat sheet and thinks it's okay to be 2nd and 8 everytime he hands the ball to DD because he scores well in a PPR fantasy league.

I think you are right on the money here regarding analysis of players. Do you do this with every player, not just RBs? What are your thoughts, plugging in DD to the analysis above, on where he stands with the Texans?I think he is their man, and they are afraid they are going to lose him. As I mentioned earlier, when DD was not struggling with his injuries and when the team was still in playoff contention, he had a 4.5 YPC avreage, which was right in line with his 2003 finish of 4.3 YPC.

On his sitch, the team is certainly considering the fact that as an RFA with low compensatin to the team for being signed away, the Texans could very easily lose DD next year. Does that mean come November, when your FF playoffs are rolling around, if the Texans are prettyy much out of contention, do they start going to other runners?

I have mentioned what I believe to be his talents as a runner - and they are not Barry Sanders moves and LT speed. That said, I believe they are the kinds of talents Dom Capers likes - balance, vision, great decisions heading towards the LOS on which hole to hit, and always forward progress.

One aside - Kinda curious why people are saying handing the ball to DD on 1st and 10 results in 2nd and 8. NFL.com, carries on 1st and 10:

164 carries 630 yards 3.8 YPC 7 touchdowns 17 first downs

He also had:

31 rec. 250 yards 8.1 YPR 1 TD

on first downs.

195 of his 370 touches were on first down - if he was struggling on first down, why would Capers keep feeding him the ball both on the ground and through the air?

 

[MelvinTScupper]

I think this is a huge for separating "sharks" from "guppies".  It seems some are content to fall back on the argument "oh well he was ranked X last year so that's good enough for me" (sounds like a cop out to true discussion to me).

Interesting. I guess you consider yourself a "shark."Go ahead, overthink it. That's fine with me. Maybe you should pick Couch up off the waiver wire. He was a #1 pick and all.

No, I read it. Probably 3 times, since it was confusing. At first, you seem to be saying that "if a player hasn't proven himself on the field, I'll use draft position to make my selection/prediction for who will do well" which supports my point perfectly. But then you accuse me of being a guppy because you pretend to understand why I think he'll do well this year. Further, you presume to think it's because all I did was think "they gave him the ball last year, so they'll do it again this year."Well, whether or not your shot was intended for me, I'm not 100% sure.

That said, there has been no valid point made about why DD would lose his job. I started this thread to look for reasons why he wouldn't get the TDs this year, and not because some rookie was drafted in the 3rd round, and CERTAINLY NOT BECAUSE HE WASN'T DRAFTED IN THE FIRST ROUND.

The amount of touches he got, the TDs he got, the skills he has a receiver all make me fairly confident that injury is the only way he loses his job. Anyway, I think I have my additional info. Thanks to guys like Levin and packersfan for not blasting off topic on tangential arguments without merit.

 

[Marc Levin]

That said, there has been no valid point made about why DD would lose his job. I started this thread to look for reasons why he wouldn't get the TDs this year, and not because some rookie was drafted in the 3rd round, and CERTAINLY NOT BECAUSE HE WASN'T DRAFTED IN THE FIRST ROUND.

The amount of touches he got, the TDs he got, the skills he has a receiver all make me fairly confident that injury is the only way he loses his job. Anyway, I think I have my additional info. Thanks to guys like Levin and packersfan for not blasting off topic on tangential arguments without merit.

you are welcome.But, I also think some valid points were raised here - and that knowledge's points above are very interesting - it did not seem to e he was taking one side or the other. I agree with him that:

It seems some are content to fall back on the argument "oh well he was ranked X last year so that's good enough for me"

That is true - guppies will take last year's top-10 RB list and dupe it for 2005. Sharks will analyze the player heading into his situation. As far as that goes, there is not a single shred of information in this thread that indicates Davis, the player, will not be stepping into the same situation with the same prospects of 300+ carries and 50+ catches - barring injury, of course.And you are right on that:

because some rookie was drafted in the 3rd round, and CERTAINLY NOT BECAUSE HE WASN'T DRAFTED IN THE FIRST ROUND.

Are pretty much as irrelevant as thinking Priest loses his job whie he is healthy simply b/c Larry Johnson was a first round pick and Priest went undrafted.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

guppies will take last year's top-10 RB list and dupe it for 2005.

I don't disagree with this at all, it just didn't have any relevance in this thread. I'd say it definitely applies to RB's like Thomas Jones, Amos Z and those in similar situations.I'd say the sharks outdo the guppies more in keeping track of not necessarily the final yardage tallies, but things like O-line changes, YPC, games played, and injuries (old, new, or constant).

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I think you are right on the money here regarding analysis of players. Do you do this with every player, not just RBs? What are your thoughts, plugging in DD to the analysis above, on where he stands with the Texans?

I think Capers was very supportive of DD on the field. Almost unusually so. He was absolutely struggling the first half of the season, they could've gotten better numbers out of a fan they pulled out of the stands. Part of this was because Hollings was injured at the same time, but it was downright strange that Wells wasn't getting any carries from weeks 8-11 averaging 3.11 against teams that were giving up like 4.6. Apparently Capers has a huge hard-on for DD and that's a good thing for his 2005 prospects.

I think he is their man, and they are afraid they are going to lose him. As I mentioned earlier, when DD was not struggling with his injuries and when the team was still in playoff contention, he had a 4.5 YPC avreage, which was right in line with his 2003 finish of 4.3 YPC.

I think what most people are worried about, is it seems to take him a LONG time to recover from injury compared to other NFL RBs.

On his sitch, the team is certainly considering the fact that as an RFA with low compensatin to the team for being signed away, the Texans could very easily lose DD next year. Does that mean come November, when your FF playoffs are rolling around, if the Texans are prettyy much out of contention, do they start going to other runners?

I don't really think they have anyone else to go to. Not really impressed with Morency, so unless they want to try the Hollings experiment again, probably not.

One aside - Kinda curious why people are saying handing the ball to DD on 1st and 10 results in 2nd and 8. NFL.com, carries on 1st and 10:

I was just talking about his YPA in general the first 9 games in the season when he was regularly averaging 2 - 3. So okay, I'll concede to 2nd and 7.

 

[Marc Levin]

I think you are right on the money here regarding analysis of players.  Do you do this with every player, not just RBs? What are your thoughts, plugging in DD to the analysis above, on where he stands with the Texans?

I think Capers was very supportive of DD on the field. Almost unusually so. He was absolutely struggling the first half of the season, they could've gotten better numbers out of a fan they pulled out of the stands. Part of this was because Hollings was injured at the same time, but it was downright strange that Wells wasn't getting any carries from weeks 8-11 averaging 3.11 against teams that were giving up like 4.6. Apparently Capers has a huge hard-on for DD and that's a good thing for his 2005 prospects.

From week 9 on, DD was huge - you are thinking of weeks 5-8. Bye week was in week 7, so week 9 was game 8.I ran the numbers earlier in this thread - DD was running at a 4.5+ from games 8 - 16 (weeks 9-17), and his first down numbers on the year were 3.8 YPC - so that would be 2md and closer to 6 than 7. I don't know what his first down numbers were by split, but I could get it - I would asume he was horrible in games 1-8 on first down and was significantly better in games 9-16.

Ask yourself whether Dom Davis is the guy who was tearing it up the last half of the year, or is he the guy who struggled the entire first half of the year? If you are willing to risk the injury factor with him, you have a guy who, when healthy, ran 4.5 YPC, averaged 98 rush yards per game, over 125 total yards/game, and almost a TD per game. And he is stepping back into an identical situation in 2005. A coach who relies on him on first down, to get fiorst downs, and at the g/l and this is a coach who will run the ball 450+ times this year, and has no problem with his halfback catching nearly 70 passes. Finally, despite EBF's contentions, and as you concede, there is no evidence that Dom Davis will be replaced in the starting lineup barring injury.

If you take DD's name out of that situation, you have a back who is a clear top-10 candidate. So, the question still remains, and has remained unanswered, why are folks low on DD in 2005?

 

[EBF]

Finally, despite EBF's contentions, and as you concede, there is no evidence that Dom Davis will be replaced in the starting lineup barring injury.

I never said he would be replaced. However, I do think his talent level is low enough to where it's a risk. Nevertheless, it's absurd to ask for evidence. What evidence was there that Rudi Johnson would push Corey Dillon out of Cincinnati? What evidence was there that Brian Westbrook would make Duce Staley expendable? Unexpected things happen in fantasy football. Neither you nor I knows the honest opinion of Houston's front office. All we get are calculated scraps of info which may or may not be completely honest. However, I think it's reasonable to suggest that they will look to replace Domanick Davis if they are not content with his production. Drafting a RB on the first day could be viewed as a step in that direction. It could also be about depth. That's true, but neither of us really knows. All we can do is look at the facts and make a guess.

I think it takes a very special player to hold a starting RB job for an extended period of time. If you look around the league, these are the only guys who have been a team's unquestioned lead back for the past 3+ years:

Curtis Martin

Corey Dillon (I'm going to count him because he was dinged up in 2003)

Jamal Lewis

Ahman Green

Edgerrin James

Fred Taylor

Deuce McAllister

Priest Holmes

LaDainian Tomlinson

Clinton Portis

Shaun Alexander

That's a pretty exclusive list. I think all of those guys are exceptional talents. I don't think Domanick Davis is an exceptional talent. I don't think he's on par with the backs listed above. As a result, I don't think it's crazy to believe that he may not be talented enough to hold a full-time gig in the NFL. I'm sorry if you find that so absurd.

So, the question still remains, and has remained unanswered, why are folks low on DD in 2005?

I think it's been answered repeatedly. 1.) While he's produced nice fantasy totals, there have still been some red flags in his performance. He's had a high percentage of games with below average YPC totals. That still holds true even if you exclude 2004. I realize that not everyone sees YPC as a critical stat, but you asked for reasons. This is a reason. If you don't agree with it then that's fine, but don't say the "question remains unanswered."

2.) He wasn't a high draft pick. You can go on and on about how irrelevant draft position is, but there's still going to be a bias against players who weren't top picks. The low draft position alone might not scare some owners, but it becomes more troubling when it's coupled with inconistent performance. From an NFL standpoint, Davis has been inconsistent.

3.) Davis has not shown that he can stay healthy for a full season. One of the knocks on DD entering the league was that he wouldn't be able to carry the load. He broke his wrist before the 2003 season and missed the preseason as a result. He's been dinged up on a regular basis since then. While he's still managed to put together pretty good fantasy totals, I think there's enough of an injury history to justify some doubts.

 

[Chitown Mole]

If you take DD's name out of that situation, you have a back who is a clear top-10 candidate. So, the question still remains, and has remained unanswered, why are folks low on DD in 2005?

I can only speak for myself, but as a dedicated Texans fan I don't think our offense is very good centering around Davis because from what I observe, teams "give" us Dom's underneath touches in the passing game so they can play a cover-2 over the top. You RARELY see 8 in the box with Davis because teams know that Dom can't hurt them much unless we are on the 2 yard line. As the offense matures we will see less of Davis.

 

[FFFIEND]

I am liking this WE HATE DD propoganda! Keep it going! I want him to be undervalued! For me, DD is a top 10 FFPlayer in 2005 NO DOUBT!

 

[cstu]

If you take DD's name out of that situation, you have a back who is a clear top-10 candidate.  So, the question still remains, and has remained unanswered, why are folks low on DD in 2005?

I can only speak for myself, but as a dedicated Texans fan I don't think our offense is very good centering around Davis because from what I observe, teams "give" us Dom's underneath touches in the passing game so they can play a cover-2 over the top. You RARELY see 8 in the box with Davis because teams know that Dom can't hurt them much unless we are on the 2 yard line. As the offense matures we will see less of Davis.

Most Texans fans are saying the exact same thing. In the games I've watched that's also what I've noticed the opposing defenses doing. DD just isn't a threat to take it all the way on a regular basis and they seem willing to give up a few yards to DD than allow Carr and Johnson to beat them. From the Texans' record, I'd say defenses will be content to do the same thing this year.

 

[nittanylion]

For the record, here's what Ourlad's scouting services has to say about Morency:Vernand Morency, RB Oklahoma St5' 9 1/2" 21240 Time 4.67Junior Eligible. Two year starter. Played minor league baseball. Better than average balance. Tough and has a burst through the hole. Downhill runner. Good vision to see and press the hole. Quick and explosive. Power type back who cuts off his blockers. More of an inside power runner. Gets outside when team runs option. Some upper and lower body stiffness, but is a good cutter. Finishes his runs. Above average overall run talent. Has been productive. Overaged prospect at 24 years old. Will need work catching the ball out of the backfield. Plays faster than his 40 time. Better straight ahead than lateral quickness. Runs with authority. Can make agressive and tough two and three yard runs. Runs behind his pads. Breaks tackles more than eluding them. Gains yards after contact. had two fumbles against Texas A&M. Must work on ball security. Ran through UCLA's defense. Workhorse type back to control ball late in game. Needs work on all blocking fundamentals.Grade 6.76 (out of 10) = Round 4 (6.00-6.99): Solid back up. Upgrades 'stop gap' back up. Ascending skills and production. Good upside based on measurables. Will need pro physical development. Possibly a first day selection.This tells me that Morency was drafted as a project, and his presence on the team is more to push Wells and Hollings for playing time and potentially a roster spot. Needing to work on his pass catching skills, hands and blocking, he's nowhere near every down starting material just coming out of college. At this point, Wells is probably a good enough 'stop gap' to be the change of pace guy, over a rookie project, so Morency might not even have an opportunity this year in that role. I wish Hollings would recognize some of his potential, but until he stops fumbling and getting hurt, he's no threat to either DD or Wells, although I think the Texans would like to have had Hollings displace Wells on the depth chart in a perfect world. Morency's drafting, I think is more a reflection of the Texans coaching staff/managements starting to have doubts about Hollings' long term potential to replace Wells, than anything else. For the record, Ourlads ranked the following five RB's ahead of Morency:9.59 Ronnie Brown9.49 Carnell Williams9.39 Cedric Benson8.40 Cedrick Houston8.39 JJ Arrington6.76 Vernand MorencyThat's a pretty big gap. Coincidentally, Marion Barber III is ranked 6.43, and I think both Morency and Barber are similar backs in similar situations, with the signing of AThomas in Dallas, and will likely see almost identical PT this year, which is to say, situational at best, based on what they show in preseason and weekly practices to work on their deficiencies. Morency is probably in a slightly better situation, as I think he's got a better chance of competing for playing time with Wells and Hollings than MB III does with ATrain, but IMHO, the only time you're going to see Morency getting any sort of playing time is if the Texans have a comfortable lead late in the game, and are trying to run time off the clock, because coming out of college that's the only skill he seems to have more than marginal NFL talent in RIGHT NOW.So technically, I'd say that as far as DD is concerned, your perspective on his production might be somewhat influenced by just how good, in general you think the Texans are, and what you think of their schedule. I think there are legitimate concerns about his durability, but I don't think there's an RB on the roster that at this time can challenge him for touches as long as the Texans are behind, or in a seesaw battle. If you think the Texans, and their schedule might put them in a position to get Davis out of the game to limit his injury risk, you downgrade him a bit, due to the fact that they've drafted a guy who's best skill is moving the chains between the tackles, exactly what you want to do when you're protecting a late, comfortable lead. I added 'comfortable' because at that point, if he fumbles it's not as critical as if the game is close.So, are the Texans going to be in a lot of situations where they have late, comfortable leads? My answer is no; they're just not there yet as a football team.Therefore, I see DD continuing to get a large # of touches, and be productive with them, as long as he stays healthy. Due to what I feel are legitimate concerns about his durability, I think you'd have to be in a perfect situation to draft him, which to me translates that I'd be pretty comfortable letting him go to someone else on draft day. Someone who drafts him earlier than they should (late first, early second).IMHO, that 'perfect situation' is one where you'd be able to draft him as a RB2/3, where you're RB 1 is at or near the top of your draft board, and your other RB 2/3 is a legit RB2 every bit as good as DD. For all those things to happen, in a 12 team League, you'd have to be drafting at picks 1-6, have DD fall to you in the latter half of the second round, and probably have to go RB-RB-RB with your first 3 picks. At that point you're drafting reactively (to insure against DD's potential injury concerns) and not proactively, which I don't like to do. Since he's not likely going to last until 2.07-2.12, I'm pretty sure I will not have DD on any of my fantasy teams this year.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

He IS going to get you positive yardage every time he touches the ball and the talents I listed above mean he is an EXCELLENT back for getting you the FD or the TD. (56 FDs, 13 TDs rushing on 300 carries is excellent production)

Davis had zero or negative yardage on 56 carries last year. Don't know where that ranks, but if that is his great strength, he is in trouble.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

He IS going to get you positive yardage every time he touches the ball and the talents I listed above mean he is an EXCELLENT back for getting you the FD or the TD. (56 FDs, 13 TDs rushing on 300 carries is excellent production)

Davis had zero or negative yardage on 56 carries last year. Don't know where that ranks, but if that is his great strength, he is in trouble.

Ah so instead of 2nd and 8 it's 2nd and 11? Even better... If you're playing Tecmo Super Bowl and trying for 99 yard TD passes.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

What evidence was there that Rudi Johnson would push Corey Dillon out of Cincinnati? What evidence was there that Brian Westbrook would make Duce Staley expendable?

If those are the questions, just remind us when DD's unrestricted free agency year is, and we'll worry about the year after.

 

[Marc Levin]

What evidence was there that Rudi Johnson would push Corey Dillon out of Cincinnati? What evidence was there that Brian Westbrook would make Duce Staley expendable?

If those are the questions, just remind us when DD's unrestricted free agency year is, and we'll worry about the year after.

I think EBF made good points - and your response applies to DD - DD is an RFA next year, but as a fourth round pick, the compensation paid to the Texans if another team signs DD will not be an impediment to him signing elsewhere - and th emoney he may see from another team may convince the team to go ahead and start Hollings/Morecy/Wells next year and draft a first round talent.That said, both Dillon and Duce got VERY hurt - not just dinged up. Dillon's situation was also unique in that he was OUTTA there (attitude/mentally/playing time) by midseason.

 

[coolnerd]

What evidence was there that Rudi Johnson would push Corey Dillon out of Cincinnati? What evidence was there that Brian Westbrook would make Duce Staley expendable?

If those are the questions, just remind us when DD's unrestricted free agency year is, and we'll worry about the year after.

I think EBF made good points - and your response applies to DD - DD is an RFA next year, but as a fourth round pick, the compensation paid to the Texans if another team signs DD will not be an impediment to him signing elsewhere - and th emoney he may see from another team may convince the team to go ahead and start Hollings/Morecy/Wells next year and draft a first round talent.That said, both Dillon and Duce got VERY hurt - not just dinged up. Dillon's situation was also unique in that he was OUTTA there (attitude/mentally/playing time) by midseason.

Remember RFA has levels. It is doubtful that the Texans will put him out for the minimum (orginal draft round), if DomDavis has any type of year. For a relative small increase (1 million dollars or so more) the Texans can place a first round tender on him.

 

[TheFanatic]

I disagree with your contention that Davis has proven that he's "a player." He's shown promise, but he has yet to put forth an exceptional season (I don't consider last year's season exceptional from an NFL standpoint).

He hasn't put forth an exceptional season? I completely disagree. He had 1784 total yards last year. Only 4 guys had more yards (Barber, Edge, Martin, Alexander). You keep looking at his YPC but rushing is only about two thirds of his game. Only 4 other guys had more yards than DD last year. DD had 14 total TD's last year. Again, only 4 guys had more (Alexander, LT, Tiki, Priest, and he was tied with Martin). He had a top 5 Fantasy and a top 5 NFL season. Only 4 guys moved the chains more than this guy and only 4 guys scored more than this guy. If that's not elite, please, oh please, fill me in on what is. Oh, and with your pour YPC argument and the mention of LT, well, Willis McGahee, Deuce McAllister and Clinton Portis all had sub 4.0 YPC. Hmmmm. Seems that can happen to even an elite back.

 

[TheFanatic]

I disagree with your contention that Davis has proven that he's "a player." He's shown promise, but he has yet to put forth an exceptional season (I don't consider last year's season exceptional from an NFL standpoint).

He had a top 5 Fantasy and a top 5 NFL season. Only 4 guys moved the chains more than this guy and only 4 guys scored more than this guy. If that's not elite, please, oh please, fill me in on what is.

 

[EBF]

He hasn't put forth an exceptional season?  I completely disagree.  He had 1784 total yards last year.  Only 4 guys had more yards (Barber, Edge, Martin, Alexander).  You keep looking at his YPC but rushing is only about two thirds of his game.  Only 4 other guys had more yards than DD last year.

It should be clear by now that total yards and TDs are not the primary factors that I use to evaluate performance. I'm more concerned with productivity per carry and catch. Like I said, I could rush for 3,000 yards if I got 3,000 carries in a season. That wouldn't make me the best RB in the NFL.

He had a top 5 Fantasy and a top 5 NFL season.  Only 4 guys moved the chains more than this guy and only 4 guys scored more than this guy.  If that's not elite, please, oh please, fill me in on what is. 

YPC is a very important stat for me. If a player doesn't have an above average YPC then his value as a running back will almost always be fractionalized from my perspective. Receiving yards are certainly important, but I think much of DD's success in that area has to do with a high number of targets. On a per/target basis he's probably above average among starting RBs, but I don't think it's enough of a difference to make up for the lower YPC. A typical RB receives far fewer targets than carries. This leads me to believe that running is the most important part of a RB's job.

Oh, and with your pour YPC argument and the mention of LT, well, Willis McGahee, Deuce McAllister and Clinton Portis all had sub 4.0 YPC.  Hmmmm.  Seems that can happen to even an elite back.

The difference is that McAllister and Portis have each shown in the past that they can sustain elite averages over the course of a season. McGahee was a rookie playing his first games in two years, so it's kind of silly to compare him to a vet who wasn't in the process of returning from a horrific knee injury.

 

[TheFanatic]

He hasn't put forth an exceptional season?  I completely disagree.  He had 1784 total yards last year.  Only 4 guys had more yards (Barber, Edge, Martin, Alexander).  You keep looking at his YPC but rushing is only about two thirds of his game.  Only 4 other guys had more yards than DD last year.

It should be clear by now that total yards and TDs are not the primary factors that I use to evaluate performance. I'm more concerned with productivity per carry and catch. Like I said, I could rush for 3,000 yards if I got 3,000 carries in a season. That wouldn't make me the best RB in the NFL.

Right, I can see why quantifiable results of performance like the 5th most yards and 5th most TD's last year don't have much of an impact on your views of a player. Your myopia is astounding. I still like how you make it seem that a coach cares more that a guy gets the first down or TD on the ground than in the air. Yards are yards. TD's are TD's. Simple as that. DD gets loads of both....

 

[MelvinTScupper]

What evidence was there that Rudi Johnson would push Corey Dillon out of Cincinnati? What evidence was there that Brian Westbrook would make Duce Staley expendable?

If those are the questions, just remind us when DD's unrestricted free agency year is, and we'll worry about the year after.

I think EBF made good points - and your response applies to DD - DD is an RFA next year, but as a fourth round pick, the compensation paid to the Texans if another team signs DD will not be an impediment to him signing elsewhere - and th emoney he may see from another team may convince the team to go ahead and start Hollings/Morecy/Wells next year and draft a first round talent.That said, both Dillon and Duce got VERY hurt - not just dinged up. Dillon's situation was also unique in that he was OUTTA there (attitude/mentally/playing time) by midseason.

So, like I said, we'll worry about it in a year.

 

[TheFanatic]

What evidence was there that Rudi Johnson would push Corey Dillon out of Cincinnati? What evidence was there that Brian Westbrook would make Duce Staley expendable?

If those are the questions, just remind us when DD's unrestricted free agency year is, and we'll worry about the year after.

I think EBF made good points - and your response applies to DD - DD is an RFA next year, but as a fourth round pick, the compensation paid to the Texans if another team signs DD will not be an impediment to him signing elsewhere - and th emoney he may see from another team may convince the team to go ahead and start Hollings/Morecy/Wells next year and draft a first round talent.That said, both Dillon and Duce got VERY hurt - not just dinged up. Dillon's situation was also unique in that he was OUTTA there (attitude/mentally/playing time) by midseason.

So, like I said, we'll worry about it in a year.

Actually, I would be willing to bet this thread gets bumped mid season if not sooner.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

What evidence was there that Rudi Johnson would push Corey Dillon out of Cincinnati? What evidence was there that Brian Westbrook would make Duce Staley expendable?

If those are the questions, just remind us when DD's unrestricted free agency year is, and we'll worry about the year after.

I think EBF made good points - and your response applies to DD - DD is an RFA next year, but as a fourth round pick, the compensation paid to the Texans if another team signs DD will not be an impediment to him signing elsewhere - and th emoney he may see from another team may convince the team to go ahead and start Hollings/Morecy/Wells next year and draft a first round talent.That said, both Dillon and Duce got VERY hurt - not just dinged up. Dillon's situation was also unique in that he was OUTTA there (attitude/mentally/playing time) by midseason.

So, like I said, we'll worry about it in a year.

Actually, I would be willing to bet this thread gets bumped mid season if not sooner.

People who bump threads midseason to say they were right are gay. Wait til the end or you're asking for bad karma.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

What evidence was there that Rudi Johnson would push Corey Dillon out of Cincinnati? What evidence was there that Brian Westbrook would make Duce Staley expendable?

If those are the questions, just remind us when DD's unrestricted free agency year is, and we'll worry about the year after.

I think EBF made good points - and your response applies to DD - DD is an RFA next year, but as a fourth round pick, the compensation paid to the Texans if another team signs DD will not be an impediment to him signing elsewhere - and th emoney he may see from another team may convince the team to go ahead and start Hollings/Morecy/Wells next year and draft a first round talent.That said, both Dillon and Duce got VERY hurt - not just dinged up. Dillon's situation was also unique in that he was OUTTA there (attitude/mentally/playing time) by midseason.

So, like I said, we'll worry about it in a year.

Actually, I would be willing to bet this thread gets bumped mid season if not sooner.

People who bump threads midseason to say they were right are gay. Wait til the end or you're asking for bad karma.

Bump

 

[TheFanatic]

What evidence was there that Rudi Johnson would push Corey Dillon out of Cincinnati? What evidence was there that Brian Westbrook would make Duce Staley expendable?

If those are the questions, just remind us when DD's unrestricted free agency year is, and we'll worry about the year after.

I think EBF made good points - and your response applies to DD - DD is an RFA next year, but as a fourth round pick, the compensation paid to the Texans if another team signs DD will not be an impediment to him signing elsewhere - and th emoney he may see from another team may convince the team to go ahead and start Hollings/Morecy/Wells next year and draft a first round talent.That said, both Dillon and Duce got VERY hurt - not just dinged up. Dillon's situation was also unique in that he was OUTTA there (attitude/mentally/playing time) by midseason.

So, like I said, we'll worry about it in a year.

Actually, I would be willing to bet this thread gets bumped mid season if not sooner.

People who bump threads midseason to say they were right are gay. Wait til the end or you're asking for bad karma.

I didn't say I would be the one bumping the thread genius. If after week 4 DD has 520 yards rushing or 120 yards rushing, someone will be bumping this thread, if not sooner.....

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I didn't say I would be the one bumping the thread genius.

Neither did I. KTHXBYE

 

[EBF]

The funny thing about this thread is that I have yet to make a ridiculous statement regarding Davis' prospects for the future. I've merely stated that I'm not high on him and that I think he comes with some risk (particularly in dynasty leagues). That said, his position in my redraft RB rankings will be about the same as it was last year, which should put him somewhere in the 12-15 range.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think you are right on the money here regarding analysis of players. Do you do this with every player, not just RBs? What are your thoughts, plugging in DD to the analysis above, on where he stands with the Texans?

I think Capers was very supportive of DD on the field. Almost unusually so. He was absolutely struggling the first half of the season, they could've gotten better numbers out of a fan they pulled out of the stands. Part of this was because Hollings was injured at the same time, but it was downright strange that Wells wasn't getting any carries from weeks 8-11 averaging 3.11 against teams that were giving up like 4.6. Apparently Capers has a huge hard-on for DD and that's a good thing for his 2005 prospects.

From week 9 on, DD was huge - you are thinking of weeks 5-8. Bye week was in week 7, so week 9 was game 8.I ran the numbers earlier in this thread - DD was running at a 4.5+ from games 8 - 16 (weeks 9-17), and his first down numbers on the year were 3.8 YPC - so that would be 2md and closer to 6 than 7. I don't know what his first down numbers were by split, but I could get it - I would asume he was horrible in games 1-8 on first down and was significantly better in games 9-16.

Ask yourself whether Dom Davis is the guy who was tearing it up the last half of the year, or is he the guy who struggled the entire first half of the year? If you are willing to risk the injury factor with him, you have a guy who, when healthy, ran 4.5 YPC, averaged 98 rush yards per game, over 125 total yards/game, and almost a TD per game. And he is stepping back into an identical situation in 2005. A coach who relies on him on first down, to get fiorst downs, and at the g/l and this is a coach who will run the ball 450+ times this year, and has no problem with his halfback catching nearly 70 passes. Finally, despite EBF's contentions, and as you concede, there is no evidence that Dom Davis will be replaced in the starting lineup barring injury.

If you take DD's name out of that situation, you have a back who is a clear top-10 candidate. So, the question still remains, and has remained unanswered, why are folks low on DD in 2005?

 

[MelvinTScupper]

The funny thing about this thread is that I have yet to make a ridiculous statement regarding Davis' prospects for the future.

"He doesn't have that much talent, since he was drafted later"

I know, I know, I should've left it alone.

 

[Cunning Linguist]

I am looking at possibly keeping him. Why is it so hard to find relavnat opinions about him and so easy to find blowhards who know everything Lovers or haters here. I would think he is good for 900-1200 yds on the ground, 40-60 catches for 250 yards. That's about 1250 yards total with maybe 12 total TD's on the CONSERVATIVE SIDE.

 

[EBF]

The funny thing about this thread is that I have yet to make a ridiculous statement regarding Davis' prospects for the future.

"He doesn't have that much talent, since he was drafted later"

I never said that. It's true that I don't think he's an elite talent and it's true that I think his draft position supports this idea. It's not true that I've dismissed him merely because he was a late pick. As I said earlier, there are several factors that lead me to be skeptical about his prospects.1. Despite all of the fantasy numbers, I don't find his statistics particularly impressive.

2. His physical tools aren't on par with the rest of the NFL's top backs.

3. He was a low pick.

4. He has a track record of minor injuries.

It's these three things combined that lead me to be skeptical of his long term prospects. It's not merely a matter of draft position. I would ignore that if I didn't see red flags in other areas, but I see some problems with his performance and his skills. That's why I look at his low draft position and think that it supports the conclusion that's been overachieving statistically and that he's not as good as his reputation in fantasy circles would indicate.

I've never said that Dom will have a bad year next year. If he gets the same amount of carries + targets that he got last year then it will be tough for him to not have a great fantasy season. My contention is that he isn't a great player who warrants a high number of opportunities and that his talent level is low enough to where he is a serious risk to be replaced within the next year or two.

 

[Marc Levin]

The funny thing about this thread is that I have yet to make a ridiculous statement regarding Davis' prospects for the future. I've merely stated that I'm not high on him and that I think he comes with some risk (particularly in dynasty leagues). That said, his position in my redraft RB rankings will be about the same as it was last year, which should put him somewhere in the 12-15 range.

well then, you, me, and Scupp are in complete agreement - this thread was started to discuss why folks like Otis have DD down near #20 - I have DD at #11 or #12 right now, and I'd spend a late first/early 2nd round pick on him without hesitating and without feeling like I need to grab his backup.What's funny about DD;s injury risk is that in comparison to some other backs who will be receiving first round draft spots, he carries the same risk. Take Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James, and Priest Holmes, for example.

 

[Marc Levin]

I am looking at possibly keeping him. Why is it so hard to find relavnat opinions about him and so easy to find blowhards who know everything Lovers or haters here.

I would think he is good for 900-1200 yds on the ground, 40-60 catches for 250 yards. That's about 1250 yards total with maybe 12 total TD's on the CONSERVATIVE SIDE.

Whataver, guy, there is a TON of useful information in this thread.

 

[Marc Levin]

The funny thing about this thread is that I have yet to make a ridiculous statement regarding Davis' prospects for the future.

"He doesn't have that much talent, since he was drafted later"

I never said that. It's true that I don't think he's an elite talent and it's true that I think his draft position supports this idea. It's not true that I've dismissed him merely because he was a late pick. As I said earlier, there are several factors that lead me to be skeptical about his prospects.1. Despite all of the fantasy numbers, I don't find his statistics particularly impressive.

2. His physical tools aren't on par with the rest of the NFL's top backs.

3. He was a low pick.

4. He has a track record of minor injuries.

It's these three things combined that lead me to be skeptical of his long term prospects. It's not merely a matter of draft position. I would ignore that if I didn't see red flags in other areas, but I see some problems with his performance and his skills. That's why I look at his low draft position and think that it supports the conclusion that's been overachieving statistically and that he's not as good as his reputation in fantasy circles would indicate.

I've never said that Dom will have a bad year next year. If he gets the same amount of carries + targets that he got last year then it will be tough for him to not have a great fantasy season. My contention is that he isn't a great player who warrants a high number of opportunities and that his talent level is low enough to where he is a serious risk to be replaced within the next year or two.

I think the reason folks like me have a problem with this attitude is that it accentuates the negatives of DD without acknowedging any of the positives. It also flies in the face of what Davis has actually done.For example, I readily acknowledge that DD is not a burner or a guy who will make people miss him - this is supported by his very low number of rushes over 20 yards. I also stated he has incredible balance, vision, and instincts to the hole - this is supported with his rushing numbers on first down, his rushes FOR first downs, and his rushing numbers inside the 5 yard line.

There are different kinds of "talent" - Terrel Davis was a SIXTH round pick - was he less talented than Dom Davis? He was certainly MORE taleneted than Davis at getting game breaking rushes, but he was less demonstrably talented than Davis in other areas, which were what dropped him in the draft.

"Talents" for RBs include balance vision and instincts - and blocking and pass catching - which are not "measurables" at the draft combine or necessarily reflected in draft position - only the backs with those abilities PLUS measurables get a high draft spot.

Finally, fourth round is not all that low a draft spot for a guy w/o overly impressive college stats - the first three rounds are generally your elite college talents - with the expectations and talent level to clearly become starters for your team. Rounds 4-7 are generally reserved for guys you see with some starter level abilities, but you expect to have to develop into starters, and they fill a need for your sqaud.

Davis was simply ahead of schedule by developing quickly - he unseated BOTH Wells and Hollings, if you recall. Hollings, their supplemental draft pick, was supposed to be super talented and was supposewd to save the RB position once he fully healed.

 

[Marc Levin]

p.s. - on the idea that DD could be replaced at some point, I think that is true of every single back in the league except a very small handful. If the Texans were able to somehow afford to add Edgerrin James, yeah, DD is out of a job.It is why Henry lost his job - he is not average, serviceable, or lacking in talent - but McGahee was freakishly athletic back in college who was projected to be the first player selected in the draft. He happened to fall very very far in the draft due to injury. Henry is a perfectly fine - and talented - NFL back, but the Bills have a once-in-a-lifetime talent in McGahee.The talk that the Texans were disappointed with Davis b/c they were considering a top-3 RB in the draft is stupid-talk. The Texans wouldn't rule out adding a top-3 RB just b/c they have Davis, but even if they drafted Benson this year, that does not mean DD would have lost his starting gig. Thomas Jones (former 1st round pick, BTW, but merely an average NFL back), OTOH . . .Also consider that Rudi Johnson (who I believe was a third round pick) didn't lose his job last year when the Bengals drafted Perry at the top of the 2nd round, and he was a back who some considered the most NFL-ready back in the 2004 draft.

 

[Cunning Linguist]

I am looking at possibly keeping him. Why is it so hard to find relavnat opinions about him and so easy to find blowhards who know everything Lovers or haters here.

I would think he is good for 900-1200 yds on the ground, 40-60 catches for 250 yards. That's about 1250 yards total with maybe 12 total TD's on the CONSERVATIVE SIDE.

Whataver, guy, there is a TON of useful information in this thread.

who you calling guy?

 

[Marc Levin]

I am looking at possibly keeping him.  Why is it so hard to find relavnat opinions about him and so easy to find blowhards who know everything  Lovers or haters here. 

I would think he is good for 900-1200 yds on the ground, 40-60 catches for 250 yards.  That's about 1250 yards total with maybe 12 total TD's on the CONSERVATIVE SIDE.

Whataver, guy, there is a TON of useful information in this thread.

who you calling guy?

LOL!!!Sorry, I should have said: "Whatever, girl"

I bet if you read some of the info here, you will def. decide to keep DD. Will you end up keeping him? What is your cost for doing so?

 

[EBF]

"Talents" for RBs include balance vision and instincts - and blocking and pass catching - which are not "measurables" at the draft combine or necessarily reflected in draft position - only the backs with those abilities PLUS measurables get a high draft spot.

I don't disagree that Davis has his strong points. However, my belief is that a RB must have virtually all of the listed talents in order to be successful. I think Davis is deficient in some important categories, which is why I think his odds of being replaced at some point are high enough to make him a risky dynasty pick. Here's the listed I posted earlier. These are the NFL backs who have held starting jobs for the past 3+ years:Curtis Martin

Corey Dillon (I'm going to count him because he was dinged up in 2003)

Jamal Lewis

Ahman Green

Edgerrin James

Fred Taylor

Deuce McAllister

Priest Holmes

LaDainian Tomlinson

Clinton Portis

Shaun Alexander

These guys are all great, great players. You'd be hard pressed to find serious weaknesses in any of their skill sets. Some are slightly more in the power back mold while others are more in the pass-catching mold, but they're all pretty well rounded. I think you could plug these guys into any system in the NFL and get good results.

I don't think Domanick Davis is a scrub, but I don't think he's on par with the players listed above. I just don't think he has the same kind of pure running ability (physical talent is a factor in that).

It takes a very special back to last as a starter in the NFL. I'm not convinced that Davis is in that class.

Finally, fourth round is not all that low a draft spot for a guy w/o overly impressive college stats - the first three rounds are generally your elite college talents - with the expectations and talent level to clearly become starters for your team. Rounds 4-7 are generally reserved for guys you see with some starter level abilities, but you expect to have to develop into starters, and they fill a need for your sqaud.

The fourth round isn't all that low, but it's still a big drop from the average spot where the NFL's top RBs were picked. I also think you're overestimating the importance of a college careers. NFL personnel people project a player's pro potential. This is why you see guys like Ronnie Brown and Matt Jones going in the first round. Their careers didn't justify their draft slots. Teams picked them high based on projections of pro potential.

Davis was simply ahead of schedule by developing quickly - he unseated BOTH Wells and Hollings, if you recall. Hollings, their supplemental draft pick, was supposed to be super talented and was supposewd to save the RB position once he fully healed.

Hollings is extremely inexperienced and has rarely been healthy enough to offer a challenge. Wells is mediocre at best. Beating out these two doesn't really prove much.

 

[Marc Levin]

"Talents" for RBs include balance vision and instincts - and blocking and pass catching - which are not "measurables" at the draft combine or necessarily reflected in draft position - only the backs with those abilities PLUS measurables get a high draft spot.

I don't disagree that Davis has his strong points. However, my belief is that a RB must have virtually all of the listed talents in order to be successful. I think Davis is deficient in some important categories, which is why I think his odds of being replaced at some point are high enough to make him a risky dynasty pick. Here's the listed I posted earlier. These are the NFL backs who have held starting jobs for the past 3+ years:Curtis Martin

Corey Dillon (I'm going to count him because he was dinged up in 2003)

Jamal Lewis

Ahman Green

Edgerrin James

Fred Taylor

Deuce McAllister

Priest Holmes

LaDainian Tomlinson

Clinton Portis

Shaun Alexander

These guys are all great, great players. You'd be hard pressed to find serious weaknesses in any of their skill sets. Some are slightly more in the power back mold while others are more in the pass-catching mold, but they're all pretty well rounded. I think you could plug these guys into any system in the NFL and get good results.

I don't think Domanick Davis is a scrub, but I don't think he's on par with the players listed above. I just don't think he has the same kind of pure running ability (physical talent is a factor in that).

It takes a very special back to last as a starter in the NFL. I'm not convinced that Davis is in that class.

Finally, fourth round is not all that low a draft spot for a guy w/o overly impressive college stats - the first three rounds are generally your elite college talents - with the expectations and talent level to clearly become starters for your team. Rounds 4-7 are generally reserved for guys you see with some starter level abilities, but you expect to have to develop into starters, and they fill a need for your sqaud. 

The fourth round isn't all that low, but it's still a big drop from the average spot where the NFL's top RBs were picked. I also think you're overestimating the importance of a college careers. NFL personnel people project a player's pro potential. This is why you see guys like Ronnie Brown and Matt Jones going in the first round. Their careers didn't justify their draft slots. Teams picked them high based on projections of pro potential.

Davis was simply ahead of schedule by developing quickly - he unseated BOTH Wells and Hollings, if you recall.  Hollings, their supplemental draft pick, was supposed to be super talented and was supposewd to save the RB position once he fully healed.

Hollings is extremely inexperienced and has rarely been healthy enough to offer a challenge. Wells is mediocre at best. Beating out these two doesn't really prove much.

I agree with everything you posted, actually. And your points above are not incongruous with Davis actually holding onto the starting gig in Texas for the next 5 years. Especially if he is successful again this year and the Texans retain him as an RFA in the 2006 offseason.

 

[Cunning Linguist]

I am looking at possibly keeping him. Why is it so hard to find relavnat opinions about him and so easy to find blowhards who know everything Lovers or haters here.

I would think he is good for 900-1200 yds on the ground, 40-60 catches for 250 yards. That's about 1250 yards total with maybe 12 total TD's on the CONSERVATIVE SIDE.

Whataver, guy, there is a TON of useful information in this thread.

who you calling guy?

LOL!!!Sorry, I should have said: "Whatever, girl"

I bet if you read some of the info here, you will def. decide to keep DD. Will you end up keeping him? What is your cost for doing so?

RUDI is my cost. I read the info, and to be honest, I'm kinda hoping for one or the other to get hurt, a major situatioanal change, or something.DD reminds me of Priest lite - always getting the ball no matter down or distance. Rudi reminds me of Curtis Martin; nothing spectacular, but is right up there every year.

 

[EBF]

p.s. - on the idea that DD could be replaced at some point, I think that is true of every single back in the league except a very small handful.  If the Texans were able to somehow afford to add Edgerrin James, yeah, DD is out of a job.

It is why Henry lost his job - he is not average, serviceable, or lacking in talent - but McGahee was freakishly athletic back in college who was projected to be the first player selected in the draft. He happened to fall very very far in the draft due to injury.  Henry is a perfectly fine - and talented - NFL back, but the Bills have a once-in-a-lifetime talent in McGahee.

You're almost supporting my previous point, which is that you have to be a freakish talent in order to last as a starting NFL RB. Nothing else cuts it at the pro level. Every year there are a few new horses entering the league. If you don't have the goods then one of them is going to roll right over you. As for your statement that every back in the league could be replaced, I would say that the following players will always start in the NFL barring injury or age-related decline:

Shaun Alexander

Corey Dillon

Ahman Green

Priest Holmes

Edgerrin James

Kevin Jones

Curtis Martin

Deuce McAllister

Jamal Lewis

Clinton Portis

Fred Taylor

LaDainian Tomlinson

You could make a case for guys like Steven Jackson and Cadillac Williams, but I'll keep the list down to guys who have had at least one strong season.

If any of these players loses his job to a surprise successor then he will find a new starting job shortly (assuming he can still play). That's exactly what happened with Dillon. He was unseated, but he was good enough to get another job. I'm not sure if Travis Henry is quite in that class and I definitely don't think Davis is at this point in time. If he can come out and had a strong 2005 then he might warrant that kind of respect from NFL teams.

Also consider that Rudi Johnson (who I believe was a third round pick) didn't lose his job last year when the Bengals drafted Perry at the top of the 2nd round, and he was a back who some considered the most NFL-ready back in the 2004 draft.

Not every first round pick pans out. Even if a team tries to replace a player, that doesn't mean they'll be successful. If the Bengals had done the smart thing and taken Kevin Jones then we might be talking about whether or not Rudi will find a new home in 2005. Besides, Perry wasn't healthy enough to mount any sort of challenge, so it's a bit premature to rule him out entirely.

 

[Marc Levin]

I am looking at possibly keeping him.  Why is it so hard to find relavnat opinions about him and so easy to find blowhards who know everything  Lovers or haters here. 

I would think he is good for 900-1200 yds on the ground, 40-60 catches for 250 yards.  That's about 1250 yards total with maybe 12 total TD's on the CONSERVATIVE SIDE.

Whataver, guy, there is a TON of useful information in this thread.

who you calling guy?

LOL!!!Sorry, I should have said: "Whatever, girl"

I bet if you read some of the info here, you will def. decide to keep DD. Will you end up keeping him? What is your cost for doing so?

RUDI is my cost. I read the info, and to be honest, I'm kinda hoping for one or the other to get hurt, a major situatioanal change, or something.DD reminds me of Priest lite - always getting the ball no matter down or distance. Rudi reminds me of Curtis Martin; nothing spectacular, but is right up there every year.

Analogies between these two players from a fantasy standpoint are incredible. I personally would stick with Rudi since the Bengals' O is likely to give Rudi more opps., but DD's combined yardage and combined touches makes these two backs very very similar for fantasy purposes.I also gravitate towards backs who catch a lot of passes since they tend to give you more consistent weekly numbers - Rudi may have a few games where the run game is shut down, but even if DD is shot down on the groud, he can still give you decent FF production by being involved in the passing game.

A final consideration is contract status, which favors Rudi - if you can keep whichever player you keep in 2006 also, consider that Rudi signed a contract with the Bengals, DD is heading towards RFA. - two-edged sword. Does that mean DD is playing for a contract and might put up better numbers this year, or does that mean DD will get a new contract from another team next year, and enter an unknown rushing situation, while Rudi is likely the Bengals guy for the next couple of years?

Very tough call.