Domanick Davis (1 Viewer)

[Marc Levin]

True, but the main point I was going for is that Capers expressed a desire to have another back to split the work with Davis... pounder or otherwise.

Does that matter for a HC who runs the balle 450+ times a year?

 

[EBF]

Yes, Thomas Jones put up similiar production in both 2003 and 2004 to DD in terms of production per touch. But so what?Thomas Jones simply has never gotten a lot of touches - either because of injury, attitude or performance.

Maybe that should tell you that mediocre backs tend not to get a lot of touches. This would support what I'm saying, which is that DD's production is largely an anomaly and that's it's unlikely to continue at its present level unless he improves his averages.

I would ask you look back to 2003, where Davis played with David Carr in year 2, David Carr the separated shoulder version after the Buffalo game (Both versions combined threw for single digit td's), Tony Banks, and Dave Ragonne. All you need to know is that Tony Banks was the best QB they had in terms of performance that year. Despite being a rookie, Davis had more rushing yards in that season and more tds than Jones has ever been able to produce. That trend continued last year.

I've never doubted that Davis was the better fantasy back in 2003 and 2004. My contention is that Jones was as effective from an NFL standpoint last year. The statistics seem to support this, yet people act like Domanick Davis is a stud back and Thomas Jones is a scrub. I believe that this is a result of flawed thinking brought on by too much emphasis on fantasy-related performance measures. Thomas Jones will likely be replaced by Cedric Benson. Why do people find it so difficult to believe that the same type of thing could happen to Domanick Davis? Houston isn't a very good team. My guess is that they'll have a top 15 pick again next year. If Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, or DeAngelo Williams is sitting there then what's going to stop Houston from taking one of those backs? I'm not saying that it will happen, but it seems like a distinct possibility that most of the DD supporters have failed to acknowledge. They seem to believe that he's in the same class as guys like Ahman Green, Shaun Alexander, Fred Taylor, and Edgerrin James. I don't think he's in that untouchable group. He's much closer to Travis Henry, Anthony Thomas, or Thomas Jones, IMO.

 

[Marc Levin]

They seem to believe that he's in the same class as guys like Ahman Green, Shaun Alexander, Fred Taylor, and Edgerrin James. I don't think he's in that untouchable group. He's much closer to Travis Henry, Anthony Thomas, or Thomas Jones, IMO.

I agree here on his physical talents being closer to that second group of backs - esp. Henry.

Find it almost comical folks ocmpare him to Priest - Priest has one thing DD doesn't have - ankle breaking in the secondary and spin moves, combined with breakaway ability. Priest can go house any play, DD can be dragged down from behind.

 

[TheFanatic]

Basically, DD is faster and stronger based on the 40 time and bench.  I'll call each players' burst even since Morency had the higher Vertical Jump and DD had the better Broad Jump.  Morency runs a better Shuttle and Cone drill, but I'm not exactly sure what that relates to as I'm not a scout or a trainer.  That and DD's two 1K yard rushing season, I would venture a guess that they didn't bring the kid in to start, at least not based on your talent rating system.

The shuttle and cone drills relate to acceleration and lateral agility. I don't have Morency rated high on my board, but I find it interesting that you claim to know why the Texans drafted him. He has similar measurables to DD and was a higher draft pick, yet you haven't acknowledged him as a serious threat to steal carries.

Please get a clue. Buy a clue, steal a clue, rent a clue, I don't care. I used your Talent Rating system to show you why he shouldn't be a significant threat to DDavis because DD has better measuerables than Morency and both are mid round picks. Since I have no other comperable data between DD and Morency this is all I have to go on. It's called comparing Apples to Apples. I can't relate Morency's NFL experience to the two 1K rushing years that DD has had because Morency has not NFL experience. Even if the two guys had identical measureables the guy with 1800 total yards last year and 14 TD's is the starter and will remain so over the kid with nothing but a resume to show how good he CAN be in the NFL.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Yes, Thomas Jones put up similiar production in both 2003 and 2004 to DD in terms of production per touch.  But so what?Thomas Jones simply has never gotten a lot of touches - either because of injury, attitude or performance.

Maybe that should tell you that mediocre backs tend not to get a lot of touches. This would support what I'm saying, which is that DD's production is largely an anomaly and that's it's unlikely to continue at its present level unless he improves his averages.

I would ask you look back to 2003, where Davis played with David Carr in year 2, David Carr the separated shoulder version  after the Buffalo game (Both versions combined threw for single digit td's), Tony Banks, and Dave Ragonne. All you need to know is that Tony Banks was the best QB they had in terms of performance that year.  Despite being a rookie, Davis had more rushing yards in that season and more tds than Jones has ever been able to produce. That trend continued last year.

I've never doubted that Davis was the better fantasy back in 2003 and 2004. My contention is that Jones was as effective from an NFL standpoint last year. The statistics seem to support this, yet people act like Domanick Davis is a stud back and Thomas Jones is a scrub. I believe that this is a result of flawed thinking brought on by too much emphasis on fantasy-related performance measures. Thomas Jones will likely be replaced by Cedric Benson. Why do people find it so difficult to believe that the same type of thing could happen to Domanick Davis? Houston isn't a very good team. My guess is that they'll have a top 15 pick again next year. If Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, or DeAngelo Williams is sitting there then what's going to stop Houston from taking one of those backs? I'm not saying that it will happen, but it seems like a distinct possibility that most of the DD supporters have failed to acknowledge. They seem to believe that he's in the same class as guys like Ahman Green, Shaun Alexander, Fred Taylor, and Edgerrin James. I don't think he's in that untouchable group. He's much closer to Travis Henry, Anthony Thomas, or Thomas Jones, IMO.

I don't think Davis is all world talent. You definitely must proceed with some caution in a dynasty league. However, I think you are making funny arguements when you say that Thomas Jones (who was drafted very high because of his perceived talent) in his best statistical year in a 5 year career was similar to Davis on a per touch basis. To me, it isn't really saying much. Davis was a better than average back on a terrible offensive team in 2003. The Texans in 03 were very similar to the Bears in 04. Davis averaged 4.3 ypc when no other rb averaged more than 2.8. Yet you will not address that. You keep pointing to the 3.9. I think that it is possible that Davis could lose his starting job down the line- especially if he wants big money. believe if that happens someone will give him a chance to be a starter somewhere. I don't think you can include im in the Anthony Thomas, Thomas Jones group. Those two players combined have fewer thousand yards seasons than Davis. Henry is about right. However, Henry got broke, signed a cheap contract extension and would be a started somewhere if he and the Bills hadn't made some mistakes. Davis will be a restricted FA next year. He will not get top dollar anywhere, but he will get a starting job somewhere.

 

[EBF]

I used your Talent Rating system to show you why he shouldn't be a significant threat to DDavis because DD has better measuerables than Morency and both are mid round picks.

First off, you didn't use my talent rating system. You don't even know my talent rating system.Secondly, DD's measurables are not better than Morency's. It's a push.

Finally, you never said that Morency "shouldn't" be a threat to Davis. You said he won't. There's a pretty big difference between those two claims.

Even if the two guys had identical measureables the guy with 1800 total yards last year and 14 TD's is the starter and will remain so over the kid with nothing but a resume to show how good he CAN be in the NFL.

There you go again predicting the future. In reality there's no way for you justify that statement. Rewind to last year. Travis Henry was the guy with all of the total yards and TDs. Willis McGahee was the kid with nothing but a resume. Look at them now.

I don't think Morency is anywhere near the talent McGahee is and I understand that there's a big difference between a first round pick and a third round pick. My point isn't that these are identical situations. My point is that you're acting like Morency has no chance of cutting into Davis' time. The reality is that you don't know what the Texans plan to do with Vernand. For all we know they think he can be even better than Davis.

 

[EBF]

I think you are making funny arguements when you say that Thomas Jones (who was drafted very high because of his perceived talent) in his best statistical year in a 5 year career was similar to Davis on a per touch basis. To me, it isn't really saying much.

Why not? A back who produced on a level very similar to Davis was replaced. That seems relevant to this conversation.

Davis was a better than average back on a terrible offensive team in 2003. The Texans in 03 were very similar to the Bears in 04. Davis averaged 4.3 ypc when no other rb averaged more than 2.8. Yet you will not address that. You keep pointing to the 3.9.

I did address that. I noted that his % of bad games (3.5 YPC or less) in the past two years is still the second highest among FBG's top 15 RBs even if you take out 2004. He had a better YPC average as a rookie than as a sophomore, but he was still inconsistent and he doesn't appear to have made any progress since then.

I don't think you can include im in the Anthony Thomas, Thomas Jones group. Those two players combined have fewer thousand yards seasons than Davis. Henry is about right. However, Henry got broke, signed a cheap contract extension and would be a started somewhere if he and the Bills hadn't made some mistakes. Davis will be a restricted FA next year. He will not get top dollar anywhere, but he will get a starting job somewhere.

Maybe, but maybe not. The crux of my argument is that Davis isn't the type of elite back whose skills demand a starting role. No one has made any strong points to indicate otherwise.

 

[TheFanatic]

Even if you lean on DD's alleged ability to create TDs, statistics seem to show that Thomas Jones was actually just as effective and that his weaker numbers were in fact a result of less opportunities:

% Touchdowns, Rushes Inside the 10 Yard Line

Thomas Jones - 53.8% (7/13)

Domanick Davis - 43.5% (10/23)

If Thomas Jones had been given 23 carries inside the 10 and had maintained his average then he would've rushed for 12.37 TDs compared to the 10 TDs that DD got on his 23 carries inside the 10.

Ok, so maybe that statistic is deceptive. DD is money near the goal line, right? Well so is Thomas Jones.

% Touchdowns, Rushes Inside the 3 Yard Line

Thomas Jones - 87.5% (7/8)

Domanick Davis - 76.9% (10/13)

This is only true if you do as you did which is just look at goal line carries. Last I checked, a RB can score from anywhere on the field. This is what's called deceptive statistics. Let's shed some light on those shall we?Thomas Jones had 296 touches last year. That's a fairly high number and carries enough statistical power to not be so statistically different from DD's as to have to account for the fewer carries. Of those 296 touches, 7 yielded TD's. That's a TD every .023 touch.

DD touched the ball 371 times. He yielded 14 TD's or a TD every .037 touch which is almost 50% higher than TJ.

Let's take the receiving aspect out of this. Out of the 240 times Thomas Jones carried the ball he had 7 TD's at a clip of a TD every .029 carry. DD had 302 carries and 13 TD's or a TD every .043 carry. Again, nearly a 50% higher TD to carry ratio.

As a matter of fact, DD's TD/carry ratio in 2004 ranked 6th in the league behind Priest Holmes (.071), Bettis (.052), LT (.050), McGahee (.045), and Alexander (.045). Considering Priest was a TD MACHINE and only played 8 games and the Bus only came in to score TD's for most of the season these two should be deemed outliers. That leaves DD up among the top 5 yet again, but you would have us believe that he has no more nose for the endzone than Thomas Jones.

If my stats are somehow off, please explain to me how TJ's nose for the endzone is just as good as DD's?

 

[TheFanatic]

Even if the two guys had identical measureables the guy with 1800 total yards last year and 14 TD's is the starter and will remain so over the kid with nothing but a resume to show how good he CAN be in the NFL.

There you go again predicting the future. In reality there's no way for you justify that statement.

What do you think we are doing here? We do our research, we look at facts and trends. We even look at draft position and measureables and we make a prediction as to what the player in question will do in the future. That's what FFB is. It's more of educated guessing at the future but it is indeed predicting the future. We're not drafting players for the 2004 season this summer. We're drafting players for the 2005 season to see how they will do against other teams and players in the FUTURE. It sounds kinda hokie, but we are in fact predicting the future. I predict that Morency is no more than some insurance against Hollings lack of health (even worse than DD's) and Wells lack of speed than a guy to challenge DD as the starter.....

 

[Chitown Mole]

It sounds kinda hokie, but we are in fact predicting the future. I predict that Morency is no more than some insurance against Hollings lack of health (even worse than DD's) and Wells lack of speed than a guy to challenge DD as the starter.....

I think Wells and DD have the same speed. Neither of them are very fast. Wells just isn't very elusive or instinctive. He doesn't seem to like contact either.

 

[TheFanatic]

The crux of my argument is that Davis isn't the type of elite back whose skills demand a starting role. No one has made any strong points to indicate otherwise.

The crux of your argument is draft position, measurables from a couple of years ago and YPC for a single season under a new blocking scheme. Everyone else is arguing with concrete stats with what the guy put up last year and the year before. You have yet to address the new blocking scheme. They went to a new system prior to the 2004 season. At the beginning of the season DD had his worst YPC of his career. As time went on last year his YPC improved. So much so that in the latter half of the season he averaged over 4.5 YPC. Seems to me that the line needed time in the new system before they really started opening up holes......But I'm sure it was all the ability of the RB and not the line. Newsflash, the game is won and lost at the line of scrimmage.....

 

[EBF]

This is only true if you do as you did which is just look at goal line carries. Last I checked, a RB can score from anywhere on the field. This is what's called deceptive statistics. Let's shed some light on those shall we?

Thomas Jones had 296 touches last year. That's a fairly high number and carries enough statistical power to not be so statistically different from DD's as to have to account for the fewer carries. Of those 296 touches, 7 yielded TD's. That's a TD every .023 touch.

DD touched the ball 371 times. He yielded 14 TD's or a TD every .037 touch which is almost 50% higher than TJ.

Let's take the receiving aspect out of this. Out of the 240 times Thomas Jones carried the ball he had 7 TD's at a clip of a TD every .029 carry. DD had 302 carries and 13 TD's or a TD every .043 carry. Again, nearly a 50% higher TD to carry ratio.

As a matter of fact, DD's TD/carry ratio in 2004 ranked 6th in the league behind Priest Holmes (.071), Bettis (.052), LT (.050), McGahee (.045), and Alexander (.045). Considering Priest was a TD MACHINE and only played 8 games and the Bus only came in to score TD's for most of the season these two should be deemed outliers. That leaves DD up among the top 5 yet again, but you would have us believe that he has no more nose for the endzone than Thomas Jones.

If my stats are somehow off, please explain to me how TJ's nose for the endzone is just as good as DD's?

Of course Davis is going to average more TDs/touch. He had a much higher number of red zone carries. He also had a much higher percentage of red zone carries. % of carries inside the 10

Domanick Davis - 7.6%

Thomas Jones - 5.4%

% of carries inside the 3

Domanick Davis - 4.3%

Thomas Jones - 3.3%

It's funny how these numbers relate to the TDs/touch values that you came up with.

7.6/5.4 = 1.41

4.3/3.3 = 1.3

.037/.023 = 1.61

That's a very minor difference. DD's higher proportion of carries inside the ten seems to account for much of the difference in his TD/touch production. This is without factoring in supporting cast, where Davis appears to have an advantage.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out why a higher percentage of carries inside the 10 and 3 might tilt the TDs/touch stats in DD's favor. Nevertheless, the stats that I gave show that Thomas Jones was quite similar. In fact, he was more effective with the red zone touches he was given. If he had the same number of carries inside the 10 then he would've had more TDs. Like I said, Davis only did better because he had more opportunities. You've yet to show that this isn't true and that these players weren't similarly effective last year. I'm very anxious to see what kind of stats you pull out next to try to justify your weak stance.

You're right in noting that a RB can score from any point on the field, but it certainly gets easier as he gets closer to the end zone. You can suggest that DD had more TDs due to big plays, but he and TJ were virtually identical in their ability to break long runs.

% of carries that went for 10+ yards

Thomas Jones - 8.33%

Domanick Davis - 8.61%

Recap:

- Domanick Davis averaged more TDs/touch than Thomas Jones, but this is mostly accounted for by him having a higher percentage of touches inside the 10 and 3 yard lines than Thomas Jones.

- Thomas Jones average more yards per carry than Domanick Davis and converted a greater percentage of his carries inside the 10 and 3 yard lines to scores.

- Domanick Davis had a better yards/target average than Thomas Jones.

I never said that these two players were clones, but it sure seems like they're comparable. That you've had to bend over backwards to show any major distinction between them (and have still mostly failed) only furthers my point.

 

[EBF]

The crux of your argument is draft position, measurables from a couple of years ago and YPC for a single season under a new blocking scheme. Everyone else is arguing with concrete stats with what the guy put up last year and the year before.

I already discussed Davis' YPC from 2003. He did have a much better average in his rookie season, but he still had an alarmingly high number of bad running games. A lot of people are using stats, but I think a lot of them are using the wrong stats. I've explained time and time again why you can't look at total yards/TDs as the primary indicator of a player's real life effectiveness. If this isn't clear by now then it never will be.

You have yet to address the new blocking scheme. They went to a new system prior to the 2004 season. At the beginning of the season DD had his worst YPC of his career. As time went on last year his YPC improved. So much so that in the latter half of the season he averaged over 4.5 YPC. Seems to me that the line needed time in the new system before they really started opening up holes......But I'm sure it was all the ability of the RB and not the line. Newsflash, the game is won and lost at the line of scrimmage.....

It's entirely possible that his struggles were a result of the line. However, I can't really say with certainty either way. It's also possible that it's coincidental. Teams change coaches and schemes pretty frequently. One of the main reasons why they have training camp and the preseason is so that they don't spend the first half of the year adjusting. I've never actually come out and said that Domanick Davis will have a bad 2005. My argument is that there are lot of red flags with him and that I don't think he's proven that he has the talent necessary to be an unquestioned lead back. If he has a strong 2005 by my standards then I will adjust accordingly, but right now I view him as a significant long term risk and a possible fluke.

 

[jurb26]

I'd just like to say that I can not believe that DD has been the catalyst to an 8 page thread. As you were......

 

[rabidfireweasel]

I think you are making funny arguements when you say that Thomas Jones (who was drafted very high because of his perceived talent) in his best statistical year in a 5 year career was similar to Davis on a per touch basis. To me, it isn't really saying much.

Why not? A back who produced on a level very similar to Davis was replaced. That seems relevant to this conversation. ...The crux of my argument is that Davis isn't the type of elite back whose skills demand a starting role. No one has made any strong points to indicate otherwise.

This will be my last post in this thread. Your theory is that Davis lacks talent. Thus, he may lose his job. That is a fine premise, and one that should be considered. It is your way of "proving it" that I find entirely lacking. You compare him to a very talented but underperforming back who lost his job, by comparing their production per touch. Production per touch does not equal production. That is why backs that get opportunities but fail to carry the ball 200 times lose their jobs. As Bill Parcells has said "Football players play on Sundays." Jones often does not.Talent and production are different things: one is difficult to define and is subjective, one is objective, but can be manipulated to suit an agenda. Yes, Jones did put up similar numbers to Davis. Here are four other backs that also produced very similarly to davis in rushing per touch: LT, Deuce, Willis and Rudi Johnson. Are they in danger of losing their jobs? No. They got nicked and (except Johnson) and performed at a lower level than in previous years. Why are you not comparing Thomas Jones to these players? He was a first round pick like three of these four. The reason is- because it does not suit your assertions. You would be laughed off and readily dismissed if you compared Thomas Jones to LT or Deuce.

Now, I don't think Davis is anywhere near the back that LT is. I agree that he is not an elite talent. I agree that he could easily be on another team in another year. Just say that, and let it go. Your minutiae of statistics comparing Jones to Davis is an intersting little tid bit that you decided to run with. Until you compare Jones with other high talent backs that produced similiar numbers last year, it is bad science. You came up with a conclusion and looked for data to support it. You ignore data that does not support it. You did not find data and try to reach a conclusion or Deuce and LT would be in this conversation.Thomas Jones is no more Domanick Davis than DD is LT.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think you are making funny arguements when you say that Thomas Jones (who was drafted very high because of his perceived talent) in his best statistical year in a 5 year career was similar to Davis on a per touch basis. To me, it isn't really saying much.

Why not? A back who produced on a level very similar to Davis was replaced. That seems relevant to this conversation. ...The crux of my argument is that Davis isn't the type of elite back whose skills demand a starting role. No one has made any strong points to indicate otherwise.

This will be my last post in this thread. Your theory is that Davis lacks talent. Thus, he may lose his job. That is a fine premise, and one that should be considered. It is your way of "proving it" that I find entirely lacking. You compare him to a very talented but underperforming back who lost his job, by comparing their production per touch. Production per touch does not equal production. That is why backs that get opportunities but fail to carry the ball 200 times lose their jobs. As Bill Parcells has said "Football players play on Sundays." Jones often does not.Talent and production are different things: one is difficult to define and is subjective, one is objective, but can be manipulated to suit an agenda. Yes, Jones did put up similar numbers to Davis. Here are four other backs that also produced very similarly to davis in rushing per touch: LT, Deuce, Willis and Rudi Johnson. Are they in danger of losing their jobs? No. They got nicked and (except Johnson) and performed at a lower level than in previous years. Why are you not comparing Thomas Jones to these players? He was a first round pick like three of these four. The reason is- because it does not suit your assertions. You would be laughed off and readily dismissed if you compared Thomas Jones to LT or Deuce.

Now, I don't think Davis is anywhere near the back that LT is. I agree that he is not an elite talent. I agree that he could easily be on another team in another year. Just say that, and let it go. Your minutiae of statistics comparing Jones to Davis is an intersting little tid bit that you decided to run with. Until you compare Jones with other high talent backs that produced similiar numbers last year, it is bad science. You came up with a conclusion and looked for data to support it. You ignore data that does not support it. You did not find data and try to reach a conclusion or Deuce and LT would be in this conversation.Thomas Jones is no more Domanick Davis than DD is LT.

 

[EBF]

Here are four other backs that also produced very similarly to davis in rushing per touch: LT, Deuce, Willis and Rudi Johnson. Are they in danger of losing their jobs? No. They got nicked and (except Johnson) and performed at a lower level than in previous years. Why are you not comparing Thomas Jones to these players? He was a first round pick like three of these four. The reason is- because it does not suit your assertions.

Wrong. Tomlinson and McAllister are proven studs with a lengthy track record of elite performance. They've each put forth multiple excellent seasons. All Domanick Davis had put forth prior to 2004 was a promising, but inconsistent rookie campaign. He doesn't have the same type of track record that those two have. With McAllister and Tomlinson we can be pretty sure that their sub par averages in 2004 were the result of injuries. We can't be so certain with DD because there's no standard. Maybe it was because of injuries, or maybe he's just not that good. As for McGahee, he was a rookie playing his first games in two years. I don't see much of a reason to compare him to a sophomore who isn't in the process of returning from a serious knee injury.

Rudi Johnson is in the same category as Davis, but he has a slight advantage due to his new contract extension. His team has demonstrated some faith in him. Even so, they did draft a RB in the first round last year. There's still some risk there and I definitely think he's a bit overrated in fantasy circles.

You ignore data that does not support it.

I've addressed virtually every point that's been brought up. I don't know how that can be viewed as ignoring data.

You did not find data and try to reach a conclusion or Deuce and LT would be in this conversation.Thomas Jones is no more Domanick Davis than DD is LT.

Again, there's a big difference. Deuce McAllister and LaDainian Tomlinson have shown that they can sustain strong YPC averages over a full 300+ carry season. They've each done it twice in their short careers. That's why I look at their 2004 averages and give them the benefit of the doubt. We've seen what they can do when they're healthy. It's not 3.9 and 4.0 YPC. Randy Moss was pretty mediocre last year. There are probably 25-30 WRs in the league who averaged more receiving yards/game. You're not going to see me claim that they're all better than or equal to Moss. Why? Because Moss has proven that he's an exceptional talent. That's why I can look at his 2004 numbers and disregard them as anomalous.

With Domanick Davis there's no track record of success. Maybe he's an elite back, but there's no history to prove it. If you assume that last year was an anomaly then you're giving him credit that he hasn't earned.

The main reason I brought up Thomas Jones is because he lost his job after a year that was very similar to the one DD put forward. Sure, Deuce McAllister and LaDainian Tomlinson weren't much better in 2004, but those guys clearly had below average seasons. We don't know that the same is true of Domanick Davis. Last year was his first full season as a starter. Maybe his lackluster running numbers were the result of injuries, but maybe he's just an average NFL talent. It's possible that last season was a standard Domanick Davis season. This is where you have to use your judgment.

Personally, I lean towards the latter. I don't think Davis is that good. His performance has always been inconsistent, he's well below average physically, and he doesn't have the pedigree of a top back. Does this guarantee that he'll lose his job in the next 1-2 years? No, but it means I don't think he's a particularly safe play. This is an opinion. I've explained my reasons quite thoroughly. You have every right to disagree if you don't find my argument compelling.

 

[EBF]

Just to prevent misunderstanding, I want to clarify my reasons for bringing Thomas Jones up in the first place.Thomas Jones was quite similar to Domanick Davis in terms of 2004 NFL performance. After the 2004 season, Thomas Jones was effectively replaced by Cedric Benson. If the Bears found TJ's production lackluster and Davis produced on a similar level then it does not seem unreasonable to believe that the Texans might find Davis' production lackluster. If it continues at its 2004 level then Davis runs the risk of being replaced. The same is actually true of McAllister and Tomlinson, but their past numbers suggest that 2004 was anomalous. The same cannot be said about Domanick Davis because there is no history on which to base a judgment of his 2004 season. For the record, I'm not suggesting that Domanick Davis = Thomas Jones. My primary point is that there is a very recent precedent for a back with production that matches DD's 2004 numbers being replaced. Therefore it does not seem absurd to suggest that Davis might be replaced if he does not improve.

 

[Banger]

Yes, Thomas Jones put up similiar production in both 2003 and 2004 to DD in terms of production per touch.  But so what?Thomas Jones simply has never gotten a lot of touches - either because of injury, attitude or performance.

Maybe that should tell you that mediocre backs tend not to get a lot of touches. This would support what I'm saying, which is that DD's production is largely an anomaly and that's it's unlikely to continue at its present level unless he improves his averages.

I would ask you look back to 2003, where Davis played with David Carr in year 2, David Carr the separated shoulder version  after the Buffalo game (Both versions combined threw for single digit td's), Tony Banks, and Dave Ragonne. All you need to know is that Tony Banks was the best QB they had in terms of performance that year.  Despite being a rookie, Davis had more rushing yards in that season and more tds than Jones has ever been able to produce. That trend continued last year.

I've never doubted that Davis was the better fantasy back in 2003 and 2004. My contention is that Jones was as effective from an NFL standpoint last year. The statistics seem to support this, yet people act like Domanick Davis is a stud back and Thomas Jones is a scrub. I believe that this is a result of flawed thinking brought on by too much emphasis on fantasy-related performance measures. Thomas Jones will likely be replaced by Cedric Benson. Why do people find it so difficult to believe that the same type of thing could happen to Domanick Davis? Houston isn't a very good team. My guess is that they'll have a top 15 pick again next year. If Reggie Bush, Laurence Maroney, or DeAngelo Williams is sitting there then what's going to stop Houston from taking one of those backs? I'm not saying that it will happen, but it seems like a distinct possibility that most of the DD supporters have failed to acknowledge. They seem to believe that he's in the same class as guys like Ahman Green, Shaun Alexander, Fred Taylor, and Edgerrin James. I don't think he's in that untouchable group. He's much closer to Travis Henry, Anthony Thomas, or Thomas Jones, IMO.

you're really reaching with the Thomas Jones thing. Do TD's count in the NFL? Do yards count in the NFL? As far as I know in the NFL when a rb runs in a td his team gets 6 points, DD did that 14 times last year, how many times did Jones do that?

 

[Banger]

Just to prevent misunderstanding, I want to clarify my reasons for bringing Thomas Jones up in the first place.

Thomas Jones was quite similar to Domanick Davis in terms of 2004 NFL performance. After the 2004 season, Thomas Jones was effectively replaced by Cedric Benson. If the Bears found TJ's production lackluster and Davis produced on a similar level then it does not seem unreasonable to believe that the Texans might find Davis' production lackluster. If it continues at its 2004 level then Davis runs the risk of being replaced. The same is actually true of McAllister and Tomlinson, but their past numbers suggest that 2004 was anomalous. The same cannot be said about Domanick Davis because there is no history on which to base a judgment of his 2004 season.

For the record, I'm not suggesting that Domanick Davis = Thomas Jones. My primary point is that there is a very recent precedent for a back with production that matches DD's 2004 numbers being replaced. Therefore it does not seem absurd to suggest that Davis might be replaced if he does not improve.

YOU are saying they had similar seasons because they had two similar stats out of how many? 15? What about carries, td's, rushing yards, receptions, receiving yards? They don't count? The only two that matter are the ones that meet your argument, convenient.Is it possible that if the Texans had a top 5 pick and there was a stud rb on the board that they might take him, it's possible. Your comparisons to TJ to try and prove that it can happen though are very weak.

 

[stbugs]

I think I understand EBF's argument and it is valid. I for one actually think DD has some talent and hope that he uses this season as a RFA to prove his worth and get a Rudi-type deal (in length mainly). Although EBF doesn't want to compare him to McGahee, I do think that DD was not coming into 2004 with a full rookie year under his belt. DD missed most of 2003 training camp and started 2004 with a snag and an injury, but he sure showed promise at the end of 2004. It is similar to JJ and KJ as well for this year. It wouldn't surprise me of one of those two (leaning more to JJ - who has a lot more competition than DD) doesn't carry the load like everyone expects. I wonder what EBF and others think of DM, KJ and JJ compared to DD when they look at these stats finishing the last 9 games of 2004. I picked LJ (Larry Johnson), KJ, JJ, McGahee and DM because I believe that people think that they all finished the year strong due to injuries/playing time:LJ - 562 yards 4.7 ypc, 11 TDs, 22 receptions for 278 yards (7 games)DM - 794 yards 4.2 ypc, 5 TDs, 26 receptions for 176 yardsJJ - 819 yards 4.2 ypc, 7 TDs, 17 receptions for 109 yards (8 games) DD - 899 yards 4.5 ypc, 11 TDs, 42 receptions for 338 yardsKJ - 926 yards 5.0 ypc, 4 TDs, 22 receptions for 122 yards (had a 74 yarder took average from 4.6 to 5.0 but still impressive)WM - 787 yards 4.1 ypc, 11 TDs, 15 receptions for 114 yards (great TDs, 4 in one game vs Seattle)While DD was obviously not the best in every category, I would say he was very impressive next to all of the guys I remember having slow starts and extremely impressive second halfs. LJs numbers were the best, but we also know he isn't even the starter and the funny thing is unlike the others the guy he replaced actually put up better numbers. DD, JJ and KJ all put up better numbers than their same teams predecessors, which I think is important to note.Edit to add: I forgot about McGahee

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Here are four other backs that also produced very similarly to davis in rushing per touch: LT, Deuce, Willis and Rudi Johnson. Are they in danger of losing their jobs? No. They got nicked and (except Johnson) and performed at a lower level than in previous years. Why are you not comparing Thomas Jones to these players? He was a first round pick like three of these four. The reason is- because it does not suit your assertions.

Wrong. Tomlinson and McAllister are proven studs with a lengthy track record of elite performance. They've each put forth multiple excellent seasons. All Domanick Davis had put forth prior to 2004 was a promising, but inconsistent rookie campaign. He doesn't have the same type of track record that those two have. With McAllister and Tomlinson we can be pretty sure that their sub par averages in 2004 were the result of injuries. We can't be so certain with DD because there's no standard. Maybe it was because of injuries, or maybe he's just not that good. As for McGahee, he was a rookie playing his first games in two years. I don't see much of a reason to compare him to a sophomore who isn't in the process of returning from a serious knee injury.

Rudi Johnson is in the same category as Davis, but he has a slight advantage due to his new contract extension. His team has demonstrated some faith in him. Even so, they did draft a RB in the first round last year. There's still some risk there and I definitely think he's a bit overrated in fantasy circles.

You ignore data that does not support it.

I've addressed virtually every point that's been brought up. I don't know how that can be viewed as ignoring data.

You did not find data and try to reach a conclusion or Deuce and LT would be in this conversation.Thomas Jones is no more Domanick Davis than DD is LT.

Again, there's a big difference. Deuce McAllister and LaDainian Tomlinson have shown that they can sustain strong YPC averages over a full 300+ carry season. They've each done it twice in their short careers. That's why I look at their 2004 averages and give them the benefit of the doubt. We've seen what they can do when they're healthy. It's not 3.9 and 4.0 YPC. Randy Moss was pretty mediocre last year. There are probably 25-30 WRs in the league who averaged more receiving yards/game. You're not going to see me claim that they're all better than or equal to Moss. Why? Because Moss has proven that he's an exceptional talent. That's why I can look at his 2004 numbers and disregard them as anomalous.

With Domanick Davis there's no track record of success. Maybe he's an elite back, but there's no history to prove it. If you assume that last year was an anomaly then you're giving him credit that he hasn't earned.

The main reason I brought up Thomas Jones is because he lost his job after a year that was very similar to the one DD put forward. Sure, Deuce McAllister and LaDainian Tomlinson weren't much better in 2004, but those guys clearly had below average seasons. We don't know that the same is true of Domanick Davis. Last year was his first full season as a starter. Maybe his lackluster running numbers were the result of injuries, but maybe he's just an average NFL talent. It's possible that last season was a standard Domanick Davis season. This is where you have to use your judgment.

Personally, I lean towards the latter. I don't think Davis is that good. His performance has always been inconsistent, he's well below average physically, and he doesn't have the pedigree of a top back. Does this guarantee that he'll lose his job in the next 1-2 years? No, but it means I don't think he's a particularly safe play. This is an opinion. I've explained my reasons quite thoroughly. You have every right to disagree if you don't find my argument compelling.

I lied. I have to make one more post. At that point, there will be little more to be said. Also, I do think you have some good points that are worthy of careful consideration. I realize that you feel that you are in the minority and saying "Buyer beware. Don't just look at production- look at how tha production was obtained." I think that is an astute opinion. However- here is the rub for me- you pick and choose your evidence. Two parts stand out to me.1) I could be wrong here- but I think that talent wise you view Travis Henry, Rudi Johnson and DD as very similiar. You are quick to point out several times the Travis Henry situation "Look at him know" but you dismiss the Rudi situation quickly. You did address it briefly, but you have not spent pages and pages comparing DD to Rudi.

2) This is where you really want it both ways. You flat out call me wrong about Deuce and LT (although by your 2004 touch criteria I am not wrong at all) - because they have had proven success and last year looks like an aberration. I would agree that last year was an aberration for them, although I do have concerns about Deuce's weight, conditioning and desire. My problem is that you vehemently take this stance while you refuse to acknowledge that 2004 was by far Jones' best year- and he has had a longer career than Deuce or LT. He has a proven history of failure. In his 5 year career, he had 3 seasons of 3.7ypc and below. He had never cracked 850 total yards or gotten more than 5 td's. In 2004 he posted career bests for carries, yards, receptions, yards per reception- it was his second best ypc year and well above his career average. In short, last year was a banner friggin year for him, and he still didn't match DD prodution. He was similiar in production per touch. Last year's mediocrity was the high point of his uneventful career. That is why he lost the job.

You want it both ways. You are willing to compare Davis to a career bust who has never been successful during that player's best year, but not willing to compare Davis to either a) two good players who put up similar numbers in an off year or b) a similiarly talented player who got franchised and signed a long term extension. We could also compare DD's first two years in terms of production per touch with Curtis Martin as easily as we could with Thomas Jones.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I'd just add one thing about the talent issue.

We ALL agree DD isn't LT.

Talent is relative though. Talent only matters if it's below what the organization wants for that position. If DD and TJ are similar, so what. Chicago wanted more from the position. Houston may not. So far Houston seems relatively supportive of DD.

 

[TheFanatic]

Weasel's right. There isn't much to say about this anymore. EBF consistently downplays stats that are contrary to his arguments. To only look at carries and TD's inside the 10 is downright deceitful when it comes to arguing statistically (figures don't lie, but liars can figure). RB's can score from anywhere, not just from inside the 10. To only look at those numbers because they support his theory is just plain wrong. It's sorta like looking at a RB and saying he isn't good because his YPC is low yet close to 33% of his total output comes from the air but that gets disregarded as no big deal. Marshall Faulk only had a little over 1K yards rushing in 99 so he must not be very good according to this logic. He also put up 1K receiving but he's a running back. He's supposed to run, not catch. I remember all those times Vermiel and Martz were seen chastizing Faulk on the sideline for getting a first down or a TD from a reception. Poor guy. All we can do now is sit back and let time tell on this one. As for me I hope to God I'm right about DD because he, KJ and Barlow are my only starting RB's on my team right now. Sure I have the 1.1, the 1.3, the 1.6, and 1.8, in the rookie/FA draft in June but I would rather have the production from the last 8 games of the season from KJ and DD than have to rely on a couple of the top rookie RB's this year....Good luck, EBF, this year. Good luck using Measurables and draft position from multiple years ago to come up with who to draft in 2005. I'm sure it's worked well for you in the past.

 

[Banger]

I'd just add one thing about the talent issue.

We ALL agree DD isn't LT.

Talent is relative though. Talent only matters if it's below what the organization wants for that position. If DD and TJ are similar, so what. Chicago wanted more from the position. Houston may not. So far Houston seems relatively supportive of DD.

The Bears were in a great position (top 4) in a draft with 3 perceived stud backs and they grabbed the best player available. If the Bears had the 10th draft pick I believe that TJ is still the starting rb this year. It was an opportunity to get a stud back and they took it, if Houston were in the same spot they may do the same thing but that is conjecture at this point.

 

[stbugs]

I'd just add one thing about the talent issue.

We ALL agree DD isn't LT.

Talent is relative though.  Talent only matters if it's below what the organization wants for that position.  If DD and TJ are similar, so what.  Chicago wanted more from the position.  Houston may not.  So far Houston seems relatively supportive of DD.

The Bears were in a great position (top 4) in a draft with 3 perceived stud backs and they grabbed the best player available. If the Bears had the 10th draft pick I believe that TJ is still the starting rb this year. It was an opportunity to get a stud back and they took it, if Houston were in the same spot they may do the same thing but that is conjecture at this point.

You are correct, the Bears may have been fine with Jones. They made the call to select someone they thought of as a Walter Payton, LT or Emmitt Smith, regardless of whether or not you like Benson. Same thing with the Bills and McGahee, if someone had selected Willis at 19, it didn't mean the Bills would have reached for another RB. Houston probably would have selected Benson at 12, but I think they knew that he wasn't going to fall there and they were satisfied enough with DD that they didn't trade up. They took Morency because their backups are just that and they need someone as a potential starter in case DD doesn't resign or (not going to say it because I can keep him with a 9th round pick ).

 

[EBF]

1) I could be wrong here- but I think that talent wise you view Travis Henry, Rudi Johnson and DD as very similiar. You are quick to point out several times the Travis Henry situation "Look at him know" but you dismiss the Rudi situation quickly. You did address it briefly, but you have not spent pages and pages comparing DD to Rudi.

My point with Henry/Jones is that marginal performance isn't always enough. That doesn't mean it sometimes isn't enough. Obviously the Bengals are content with what Rudi has done. That's why my argument isn't that DD is guaranteed to be replaced, but rather that it's a serious risk if he doesn't improve.

2) This is where you really want it both ways. You flat out call me wrong about Deuce and LT (although by your 2004 touch criteria I am not wrong at all) - because they have had proven success and last year looks like an aberration. I would agree that last year was an aberration for them, although I do have concerns about Deuce's weight, conditioning and desire. My problem is that you vehemently take this stance while you refuse to acknowledge that 2004 was by far Jones' best year- and he has had a longer career than Deuce or LT. He has a proven history of failure.  In his 5 year career, he had 3 seasons of 3.7ypc and below. He had never cracked 850 total yards or gotten more than 5 td's. In 2004 he posted career bests for carries, yards, receptions, yards per reception- it was his second best ypc year and well above his career average. In short, last year was a banner friggin year for him, and he still didn't match DD prodution. He was similiar in production per touch. Last year's mediocrity was the high point of his uneventful career. That is why he lost the job.

You're mostly right. That's why I made a second post on the topic above. I knew someone would respond with a post like this. I didn't bring up Thomas Jones to prove that DD = Thomas Jones. I brought him up to show that a RB with similar production was replaced. My point is that it can happen.

There's no reason to bring Deuce or Tomlinson into the argument. To me it would be like comparing 2004 Randy Moss to Ashley Lelie. Their production may have been similar, but we know that one guy was performing below his standards, so there's no sense in comparing them.

You want it both ways. You are willing to compare Davis to a career bust who has never been successful during that player's best year, but not willing to compare Davis to either a) two good players who put up similar numbers in an off year or b) a similiarly talented player who got franchised and signed a long term extension. We could also compare DD's first two years in terms of production per touch with Curtis Martin as easily as we could with Thomas Jones.

Do you see how comparing him to two good players who had off years is giving him credit that he hasn't earned? Domanick Davis has never had a single season like the ones Deuce McAllister and LaDainian Tomlinson had in 2002 and 2003. If he had that track record of excellence then I would have no problem writing off last year to injuries. As it stands now I can't comfortably ignore his 2004 averages because there's no evidence that it's below his standard. Was 2004 above Thomas Jones' standard? Maybe so, but it was his first year as a full-time starter and his 2003 numbers were also pretty solid. Anyhow, I merely brought him up to show that a back with similar production to DD was replaced. It seems to follow that if DD doesn't improve then he too could be replaced.

 

[TheFanatic]

Do you see how comparing him to two good players who had off years is giving him credit that he hasn't earned? Domanick Davis has never had a single season like the ones Deuce McAllister and LaDainian Tomlinson had in 2002 and 2003.

See, this is why you are just plain shady. You have no problem comparing TJ's top year to DD when DD's YPC was down, yet you say comparing DD to Deuce or LT is giving him too much credit. That my friend is hypocrisy. And considering the way you selectively use stats, it just knocks your board cred down yet another notch.....Good luck this year....

 

[EBF]

Do you see how comparing him to two good players who had off years is giving him credit that he hasn't earned? Domanick Davis has never had a single season like the ones Deuce McAllister and LaDainian Tomlinson had in 2002 and 2003.

See, this is why you are just plain shady. You have no problem comparing TJ's top year to DD when DD's YPC was down, yet you say comparing DD to Deuce or LT is giving him too much credit. That my friend is hypocrisy. And considering the way you selectively use stats, it just knocks your board cred down yet another notch.....Good luck this year....

Here's the distinction:- Deuce and Tomlinson were clearly hurt. It's obvious from comparing their pre-2004 averages to their 2004 seasons. They each played well below their standard. Thomas Jones missed two games, but judging by his stats he was healthy when he did play.

Why should I compare a player (Davis) with virtually no pro track record to two star backs who were clearly injured? That doesn't make a lot of sense. Jones seems like a more fair comparison given that he doesn't have multiple Pro Bowl type seasons under his belt and, more importantly, that he wasn't hobbled by injuries.

Which seems more ridiculous, comparing Ashley Lelie to Randy Moss or Drew Bennett? I would venture to guess that they all had similar yards/game averages last year, yet it seems clear which comparison is more absurd. It's not a perfect analogy, but I think it's somewhat valid. You're effectively blaming me for not comparing an unproven player to two Pro Bowlers because he produced similar numbers to them in a season in which they were seriously slowed by injuries. That's humorous to me.

 

[Banger]

Do you see how comparing him to two good players who had off years is giving him credit that he hasn't earned? Domanick Davis has never had a single season like the ones Deuce McAllister and LaDainian Tomlinson had in 2002 and 2003.

See, this is why you are just plain shady. You have no problem comparing TJ's top year to DD when DD's YPC was down, yet you say comparing DD to Deuce or LT is giving him too much credit. That my friend is hypocrisy. And considering the way you selectively use stats, it just knocks your board cred down yet another notch.....Good luck this year....

Here's the distinction:- Deuce and Tomlinson were clearly hurt. It's obvious from comparing their pre-2004 averages to their 2004 seasons. They each played well below their standard. Thomas Jones missed two games, but judging by his stats he was healthy when he did play.

Why should I compare a player (Davis) with virtually no pro track record to two star backs who were clearly injured? That doesn't make a lot of sense. Jones seems like a more fair comparison given that he doesn't have multiple Pro Bowl type seasons under his belt and, more importantly, that he wasn't hobbled by injuries.

Which seems more ridiculous, comparing Ashley Lelie to Randy Moss or Drew Bennett? I would venture to guess that they all had similar yards/game averages last year, yet it seems clear which comparison is more absurd. It's not a perfect analogy, but I think it's somewhat valid. You're effectively blaming me for not comparing an unproven player to two Pro Bowlers because he produced similar numbers to them in a season in which they were seriously slowed by injuries. That's humorous to me.

If it doesn't make sense to compare DD to an injured LT/DM how does comparing the stats of an injured DD to a healthy Jones make sense? You are comparing Jones who wasn't hobbled to DD who clearly was hobbled in the 1st half of the season so again your comparison is seriously flawed. I guess you ignored the numerous posts that clearly show the stats the "injured DD" posted as opposed to the "healed DD". It's been posted in the thread numerous times that in the 2nd half a healthy DD 4.5 YPC which is far better than Jones healthy YPC average. So if you want to make your flawed comparison a little more accurate you should compare a HEALTHY DD's #'s vs. a HEALTHY TJ's #'s. 4.5 YPC > 3.9 YPC.

 

[TheFanatic]

If it doesn't make sense to compare DD to an injured LT/DM how does comparing the stats of an injured DD to a healthy Jones make sense? You are comparing Jones who wasn't hobbled to DD who clearly was hobbled in the 1st half of the season so again your comparison is seriously flawed. I guess you ignored the numerous posts that clearly show the stats the "injured DD" posted as opposed to the "healed DD". It's been posted in the thread numerous times that in the 2nd half a healthy DD 4.5 YPC which is far better than Jones healthy YPC average.

So if you want to make your flawed comparison a little more accurate you should compare a HEALTHY DD's #'s vs. a HEALTHY TJ's #'s. 4.5 YPC > 3.9 YPC.

It's time to move on here. EBF only sees what he wants to see. Probably got smoked by the DD owner last year and he's trying to figure out in his head how it's possible that this "subpar NFL talent" could've beaten him....Selective stats, shady ommissions, blinders bigger than a winnebago over each eye, and downright deceptive representation of DD's performance last year. This guy is a waste of time to argue with....

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Thomas Jones was quite similar to Domanick Davis in terms of 2004 NFL performance. After the 2004 season, Thomas Jones was effectively replaced by Cedric Benson.

There you go pretending to know the future again. Tsk Tsk.Wait until Benson plays a down, shall we? The last words spoken by Lovie Smith were "Thomas is our man, right now."

I agree it will change, because Jones is mediocre. Ironically, Davis is still the starter.

No one here said he was on the elite status. You assume we think so, merely because we're predicting the same success he had last year. Our predictions are not a stretch, because they are based on fact.

 

[EBF]

If it doesn't make sense to compare DD to an injured LT/DM how does comparing the stats of an injured DD to a healthy Jones make sense? You are comparing Jones who wasn't hobbled to DD who clearly was hobbled in the 1st half of the season so again your comparison is seriously flawed. I guess you ignored the numerous posts that clearly show the stats the "injured DD" posted as opposed to the "healed DD". It's been posted in the thread numerous times that in the 2nd half a healthy DD 4.5 YPC which is far better than Jones healthy YPC average.

The difference is that we don't know for certain that injuries were the cause of DD's struggles. He doesn't have a track record of success like the other two do. Last year Deuce McAllister had a high ankle sprain and LaDainian Tomlinson had a pretty bad groin problem. Domanick Davis missed one week. I'll admit that I don't follow him very closely, but I don't think his injuries were as serious.

As for the second half, how do you know when Davis suddenly became healthy? Did you just assume that he was healthy once he started producing? Was he not healthy in weeks 5-11, when he didn't have a single game over 3.7 YPC? How do you know?

 

[MelvinTScupper]

If it doesn't make sense to compare DD to an injured LT/DM how does comparing the stats of an injured DD to a healthy Jones make sense?  You are comparing Jones who wasn't hobbled to DD who clearly was hobbled in the 1st half of the season so again your comparison is seriously flawed.  I guess you ignored the numerous posts that clearly show the stats the "injured DD" posted as opposed to the "healed DD".  It's been posted in the thread numerous times that in the 2nd half a healthy DD 4.5 YPC which is far better than Jones healthy YPC average. 

The difference is that we don't know for certain that injuries were the cause of DD's struggles. He doesn't have a track record of success like the other two do. Last year Deuce McAllister had a high ankle sprain and LaDainian Tomlinson had a pretty bad groin problem. Domanick Davis missed one week. I'll admit that I don't follow him very closely, but I don't think his injuries were as serious.

As for the second half, how do you know when Davis suddenly became healthy? Did you just assume that he was healthy once he started producing? Was he not healthy in weeks 5-11, when he didn't have a single game over 3.7 YPC? How do you know?

I don't. I think he was a fantasy stud in the last 7-9 games with a nagging injury.

 

[EBF]

It's time to move on here. EBF only sees what he wants to see. Probably got smoked by the DD owner last year and he's trying to figure out in his head how it's possible that this "subpar NFL talent" could've beaten him....

I think the Domanick Davis owner won one out of my 4-5 leagues last year. I have no more reason to be biased against him than against guys like Peyton Manning and Shaun Alexander. Those guys were much rougher on my teams last year.

Selective stats, shady ommissions, blinders bigger than a winnebago over each eye, and downright deceptive representation of DD's performance last year. This guy is a waste of time to argue with....

It almost sounds like you're describing yourself. Selective stats? I definitely select which stats that I choose to value. Assuming 200+ carries as a starter, I definitely value YPC over total yards/TDs as an indicator of a player's effectiveness. I've always been this way. If I'm evaluating talent then I look at what a player did with the opportunities he was given. I then project how many opportunities he can expect in future seasons. If I find his production unsatisfactory and his talent unimpressive then I assume that he is a risk to be replaced.

Part of fantasy football (particularly dynasty) is evaluating players. Obviously numbers are a big factor, but you also have to look at what your eyes tell you. I think Kevin Jones is going to join the group of elite NFL backs in the near future. He only has 5-7 good games under his belt. That's not really enough to justify how high I'd rank him, but I'm confident in his skills because I've seen him play many times. He looks like the kind of RB that I'd want on my team for the long haul. I can't prove that he'll be great. He's only played a handful of games. Nevertheless, I'm sold on him.

Likewise, I don't find Domanick Davis particularly impressive. He's put together some good fantasy totals, but he doesn't look like a special talent to me. At the end of the day I don't think he's any better than average for an NFL RB. I think he's a decent player who appears great to some people because he fell into a nice situation that's allowed him to put up some strong totals.

Is my opinion justified? Well I think I've given plenty of reasons to explain why I'm not high on DD's prospects. It's great if he helped you to a championship last year. That doesn't mean he's going to do it again. More importantly, it doesn't mean you should automatically dismiss his critics as if they're lunatics. You've yet to acknowledge the many risk factors involved with DD. This tells me that you're extremely biased yourself. You want to believe that he's the real deal. That's fine, just don't get so agitated when someone with a different opinion comes along. You accuse me of being one-sided, but you don't appear to be any better.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

I think Kevin Jones is going to join the group of elite NFL backs in the near future. He only has 5-7 good games under his belt. That's not really enough to justify how high I'd rank him, but I'm confident in his skills because I've seen him play many times. He looks like the kind of RB that I'd want on my team for the long haul. I can't prove that he'll be great. He's only played a handful of games.

So, in the handful of games you've seen him play in te NFL that aren't really enough to justify how you'd rank him, you've seen him play many times?

 

[EBF]

I think Kevin Jones is going to join the group of elite NFL backs in the near future. He only has 5-7 good games under his belt. That's not really enough to justify how high I'd rank him, but I'm confident in his skills because I've seen him play many times. He looks like the kind of RB that I'd want on my team for the long haul. I can't prove that he'll be great. He's only played a handful of games.

So, in the handful of games you've seen him play in te NFL that aren't really enough to justify how you'd rank him, you've seen him play many times?

I meant to say that 5-7 is an insufficient number statistically. It's not enough games to really prove that a player is the real deal (see: Koren Robinson). That said, I feel that I can make a pretty solid evaluation of a RB's talent by watching him play 2-3 games.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

I meant to say that 5-7 is an insufficient number statistically. It's not enough games to really prove that a player is the real deal (see: Koren Robinson). It is, however, enough games for me to get a feel for a RB's talent.

Agreed. Now, where have you seen him play MANY times, that justify your opinion that he will be an "elite" back?

 

[EBF]

I meant to say that 5-7 is an insufficient number statistically. It's not enough games to really prove that a player is the real deal (see: Koren Robinson). It is, however, enough games for me to get a feel for a RB's talent.

Agreed. Now, where have you seen him play MANY times, that justify your opinion that he will be an "elite" back?

I saw several of his 2003 games at Virginia Tech and several of his 2004 NFL games.

 

[stbugs]

As for the second half, how do you know when Davis suddenly became healthy? Did you just assume that he was healthy once he started producing? Was he not healthy in weeks 5-11, when he didn't have a single game over 3.7 YPC? How do you know?

Davis was on my team last year, so I read every news note on him. He got hurt in the 1st quarter/half of week 3, missed week 4, played hurt in week 5, got hurt again in the 1st half of week 6 (so clearly not healthy), bye week 7, played in week 8-10. His first great game was week 11 (game 10), although in weeks 8-10 he averaged 116 total yards and had 5 TDs, not too shabby (other than the ypc!!!!).Here is why I think he was healthier in week 11-17 (although from week 8-17 he was the #1 RB) and incidentally in weeks 11-17 he averaged 5.2 ypc, the 4.5 ypc that has been thrown around included weeks 8-10:

Week 6 (Tennessee): 10-25 rushing, no receptions, hurt in first half

Week 8 (Jacksonville): 22-56 rushing, 5-39 receiving

Week 10 (Indy): 31-98 rushing, 7-54 receiving (2TDs)

Week 12 (Tennessee): 16-129 rushing, 7-52 receiving (1TD)

Week 14 (Indy): 23-128 rushing, 6-73 receiving (1TD)

Week 16 (Jacksonville): 31-158 rushing, 4-31 receiving (1TD)

Now if you can't see the difference in these games where he played healthy and not healthy, then I can't help anymore.

 

[EBF]

As for the second half, how do you know when Davis suddenly became healthy? Did you just assume that he was healthy once he started producing? Was he not healthy in weeks 5-11, when he didn't have a single game over 3.7 YPC? How do you know?

Davis was on my team last year, so I read every news note on him. He got hurt in the 1st quarter/half of week 3, missed week 4, played hurt in week 5, got hurt again in the 1st half of week 6 (so clearly not healthy), bye week 7, played in week 8-10. His first great game was week 11 (game 10), although in weeks 8-10 he averaged 116 total yards and had 5 TDs, not too shabby (other than the ypc!!!!).Here is why I think he was healthier in week 11-17 (although from week 8-17 he was the #1 RB) and incidentally in weeks 11-17 he averaged 5.2 ypc, the 4.5 ypc that has been thrown around included weeks 8-10:

Week 6 (Tennessee): 10-25 rushing, no receptions, hurt in first half

Week 8 (Jacksonville): 22-56 rushing, 5-39 receiving

Week 10 (Indy): 31-98 rushing, 7-54 receiving (2TDs)

Week 12 (Tennessee): 16-129 rushing, 7-52 receiving (1TD)

Week 14 (Indy): 23-128 rushing, 6-73 receiving (1TD)

Week 16 (Jacksonville): 31-158 rushing, 4-31 receiving (1TD)

Now if you can't see the difference in these games where he played healthy and not healthy, then I can't help anymore.

That's a huge difference. Like I said long ago, the best argument in favor of Davis isn't that he was an NFL stud in 2004, but rather that his mediocre numbers were the result of injury. If he can play like he did in those last few games then he obviously won't be replaced. The real question is whether or not you think he will. I think he can, but I'm not convinced that he will. That's why he'll be about 12-15 in my rankings. I'm not saying he's a sure bust. I'm saying I don't think he's a sure thing and that there are enough red flags for me to avoid acquiring him in dynasty leagues. This is really what I've been saying all along.

 

[Chitown Mole]

Now if you can't see the difference in these games where he played healthy and not healthy, then I can't help anymore.

That's my whole problem with DD. He didn't have big injuries and he doesn't run well with minor ailments. Week 11 is way too late to wait for production if you want to be in the playoffs.

 

[stbugs]

As for the second half, how do you know when Davis suddenly became healthy? Did you just assume that he was healthy once he started producing? Was he not healthy in weeks 5-11, when he didn't have a single game over 3.7 YPC? How do you know?

Davis was on my team last year, so I read every news note on him. He got hurt in the 1st quarter/half of week 3, missed week 4, played hurt in week 5, got hurt again in the 1st half of week 6 (so clearly not healthy), bye week 7, played in week 8-10. His first great game was week 11 (game 10), although in weeks 8-10 he averaged 116 total yards and had 5 TDs, not too shabby (other than the ypc!!!!).Here is why I think he was healthier in week 11-17 (although from week 8-17 he was the #1 RB) and incidentally in weeks 11-17 he averaged 5.2 ypc, the 4.5 ypc that has been thrown around included weeks 8-10:

Week 6 (Tennessee): 10-25 rushing, no receptions, hurt in first half

Week 8 (Jacksonville): 22-56 rushing, 5-39 receiving

Week 10 (Indy): 31-98 rushing, 7-54 receiving (2TDs)

Week 12 (Tennessee): 16-129 rushing, 7-52 receiving (1TD)

Week 14 (Indy): 23-128 rushing, 6-73 receiving (1TD)

Week 16 (Jacksonville): 31-158 rushing, 4-31 receiving (1TD)

Now if you can't see the difference in these games where he played healthy and not healthy, then I can't help anymore.

That's a huge difference. Like I said long ago, the best argument in favor of Davis isn't that he was an NFL stud in 2004, but rather that his mediocre numbers were the result of injury. If he can play like he did in those last few games then he obviously won't be replaced. The real question is whether or not you think he will. I think he can, but I'm not convinced that he will. That's why he'll be about 12-15 in my rankings. I'm not saying he's a sure bust. I'm saying I don't think he's a sure thing and that there are enough red flags for me to avoid acquiring him in dynasty leagues. This is really what I've been saying all along.

I know you have. Sometimes it ain't easy to have a rational discussion! I actually won my league and DD was a big reason, him and Dillon as my RBs were gold. I won my last 8, including my week 17 SB. I had Brooks, AJ, Owens (2-24 in my 3 week playoff) Kennison, Gonzo and Mason as the rest of my cast so you can see how much DD helped. DD and Gonzo lit it up at the end.I actually think he will continue to do well, this being his contract year. I believe he had an ankle sprain, which you earlier said was acceptable for Duece who missed 2 games and was injured in 1 game. DD missed one game and was hurt in 2, so pretty even. They both had 4 stinkers (less than 3.5 ypc) in the games after they got hurt and as I posted above DD had better overall stats, including ypc than Duece in the last 9 games.

I know I can't bring you to the dark side, but based on your comments below, I could see you joining us if DD has a good 2005 campaign.

 

[stbugs]

Now if you can't see the difference in these games where he played healthy and not healthy, then I can't help anymore.

That's my whole problem with DD. He didn't have big injuries and he doesn't run well with minor ailments. Week 11 is way too late to wait for production if you want to be in the playoffs.

FF or real NFL? His week 8-10 at 116 yards and 5 total TDs was great in fantasy. If you are talking real football then I guess you might as well scratch Duece McAllister as well. His season almost mirrors DD's except that DD was more productive in weeks 8-17 fantasy and real NFL. Injuries happen, Edge lost a season, Jamal lost a season, McGahee lost a season, the list goes on. Julius Jones missed 8 weeks, might as well blame him for the Cowboys missing the playoffs since they made it the year before. Tatum Bell is a stud, but Denver had to play at Indy because he couldn't get healthy in time.Ok, rant over and I don't feel like listing every injury. Ankles are for cutting and running, so it is an injury that will cause issues and takes time to be 100%. I wasn't DD's doctor so I don't know if maybe he tried to play and should have sat one more game, remember he reinjured the ankle, so at that point it makes sense that it might take a little bit to get back.

 

[stbugs]

That's it on this? Come on only 7, I mean 6 more posts until 300. EBF?, Fanatic, Banger, Scupper, noone?Fine I will take EBF's side. DD's ypc aren't good enough to hold Thomas Jones' jockstrap! :IBTL:

 

[Twisted]

So what's the bottom line?Is DD a buy or sell in dynasty leagues?

 

[Banger]

So what's the bottom line?

Is DD a buy or sell in dynasty leagues?

 

[EBF]

So what's the bottom line?

Is DD a buy or sell in dynasty leagues?

As usual, it depends on what you can get for him. If I were building for the future then I wouldn't have any problem trading him for some combination of high picks and good prospects. However, if I didn't think I could win without his production then I'd keep him and hope for another good fantasy season.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

I meant to say that 5-7 is an insufficient number statistically. It's not enough games to really prove that a player is the real deal (see: Koren Robinson). It is, however, enough games for me to get a feel for a RB's talent.

Agreed. Now, where have you seen him play MANY times, that justify your opinion that he will be an "elite" back?

I saw several of his 2003 games at Virginia Tech and several of his 2004 NFL games.

Only ONE season of college games?

 

[EBF]

I meant to say that 5-7 is an insufficient number statistically. It's not enough games to really prove that a player is the real deal (see: Koren Robinson). It is, however, enough games for me to get a feel for a RB's talent.

Agreed. Now, where have you seen him play MANY times, that justify your opinion that he will be an "elite" back?

I saw several of his 2003 games at Virginia Tech and several of his 2004 NFL games.

Only ONE season of college games?

Well obviously I saw him before that, but the most recent year seems the most pertinent. Also, he got quite a bit bigger throughout his years at Tech. He looked like a different guy by the time he left for the draft.