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Draft: Overrated vs. Underrated (1 Viewer)

ConstruxBoy

Kate's Daddy
One of the things I do when compiling my list of fantasy players for the NFL draft is to do a straight average of their position ranking from all the different sources I use and then do a weighted average based upon which sources I feel are more accurate getting a higher rank than the sources I don't feel are as accurate. When comparing the two averages, it is sometimes useful to look at difference and see how large the difference is between them. If it is a high positive difference, it means that my trusted sources have the player ranked lower (better) than the average of all sources. I believe that these are players that are underrated by the average draft source. Conversely, a high negative difference means that the trusted sources have the player ranked higher (worse) than average and that these players are probably overrated.

Here's a list of overrated and underrated players for the 4 main fantasty positions:

QB

Overrated: QJacobs, RMcNeal, DOlsen

Underrated: BGradkowski, EMeyer, TJackson

RB

Overrated: LWashington, JHarrison, MBell

Underrated: JAddai, THenderson, CHumes

WR

Overrated: GLee, HBaskett, TWatkins, DHagen

Underrated: CJackson, TWilson, GJennings, BMarshall

TE

Overrated: LPope

Underrated: JKlopfenstein, TScheffler

Anyone have other comments on players you think are being overrated or underrated by draft gurus?

 

Sabertooth

Footballguy
I can't see how Bush can be anything but overrated. Unless he has a career equivalent to Barry Sanders, he's overrated. You'd swear than Canton is just a formality for him.

 

Chaos Commish

Footballguy
I can't see how Bush can be anything but overrated. Unless he has a career equivalent to Barry Sanders, he's overrated. You'd swear than Canton is just a formality for him.
It's unfortunate but true. He could be great and never live up to the hype. Here's mine:

QBs

Overrated: Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Omar Jacobs

Underrated: Ingle Martin, Charlie Whitehurst, Bruce Gradkowski, Barrick Nealy, Quinton Porter, Tarvaris Jackson

RBs

Overrated: Joseph Addai, Luarence Maroney

Underrated: Jerome Harrison, Jerious Norwood

WRs

Overrated: Chad Jackson, Santonio Holmes, Sinorice Moss, Derek Hagan

Underrated: Brandon Marshall, Jeff Webb, Mike Hass, Willie Reid, Demetrius Williams, Devin Aromashodu, Greg Jennings, Miles Austin, Domenik Hixon, Jonathan Orr, Travis Wilson, Marques Colston, David Anderson, Damarius Bilbo

TEs

Overrated: None

Underrated: Leonard Pope, Marcedes Lewis, Tony Sheffler, Joe Klopfenstein, David Thomas, Owen Daniels

 

Sigmund Bloom

Footballguy
Staff member
Not a complete list, but the first that come to mind:

QBs

Overrated: Brodie Croyle, Charlie Whitehurst, Reggie McNeal

Underrated: Bruce Gradkowski, Ingle Martin, Kellen Clemens, Paul Pinegar

RBs

Overrated: Gerald Riggs, DonTrell Moore, Wali Lundy

Underrated: De'Arrius Howard, Terrence Whitehead, Taurean Henderson

WRs

Overrated: Jason Avant, Derek Hagan, Maurice Stovall, Devin Aromashadu, Devin Hester (at any position), Todd Watkins

Underrated: Brandon Marshall (most underrated player in the draft), Jonathan Orr, Mike Hass, Travis Wilson, Greg Jennings, Martin Nance, Marques Colston

TEs

Overrated: Leonard Pope (as a first rounder), Anthony Fasano

Underrated: Dominique Byrd, Tony Scheffler, Jai Lewis

 

CalBear

Footballguy
I can't see how Bush can be anything but overrated. Unless he has a career equivalent to Barry Sanders, he's overrated. You'd swear than Canton is just a formality for him.
Depends on how you define "overrated." He may be over-hyped, but is he worth the 1.01 pick? Almost certainly. Unless someone does a "my draft for Reggie Bush" move, it's hard to say his selection will overstate his value. Recent 1.01 picks: Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, David Carr, Michael Vick, Courtney Brown, Tim Couch. With the possible exception of Palmer, Bush seems a better prospect than those.
 

ConstruxBoy

Kate's Daddy
I find it interesting that my analysis of other "guru's" ranking found Addai and CJackson to be underrated, but Chaos (and I'm sure others) feel that they're overrated. I think that shows a good example of the issue with "outdated" draft ranking information. Back when alot of my sources were published, those guys were underrated compared to their peers. But now they've both been talked about alot in the last 2-3 weeks and are probably overrated.

 

JayMan

Footballguy
Interesting to see Travis Wilson listed on the underrated side... he seems like a solid player to me - yet, he's never even mentioned in the top5 (or even top10!) of this "weak WR class"...

Is there a chance that he might develop in the "Sooners mode" ala Mark Clayton, Mark Bradley and Brandon Jones before him? or are those comparisons uncalled for?...

Seems to me that his measurables, the way he plays resemble Muhsin Muhammad / Justin McCareins / David Givens...

At 6'2", 215, 4.52 40... I'm I reading too much into this while planning to steal him late in our rookie draft?

 

ConstruxBoy

Kate's Daddy
Interesting to see Travis Wilson listed on the underrated side... he seems like a solid player to me - yet, he's never even mentioned in the top5 (or even top10!) of this "weak WR class"...

Is there a chance that he might develop in the "Sooners mode" ala Mark Clayton, Mark Bradley and Brandon Jones before him? or are those comparisons uncalled for?...

Seems to me that his measurables, the way he plays resemble Muhsin Muhammad / Justin McCareins / David Givens...

At 6'2", 215, 4.52 40... I'm I reading too much into this while planning to steal him late in our rookie draft?
Well, several online sites have him ranked in the mid-teens among the WRs, but the sites that I trust a little more have him around 9th or 10th. So I would suggest that it may be a little more likely that you can get him later if this premise hold true.
 

Chaos Commish

Footballguy
Not a complete list, but the first that come to mind:

QBs

Underrated: Paul Pinegar

RBs

Underrated: De'Arrius Howard,

WRs

Overrated: Devin Aromashadu

Underrated: Dominique Byrd, Jai Lewis
My list of underrated QBs was getting too long, but I agree Pinegar is better than his offseason performance and underrated.Watch out for Aromashodu. That offense rarely threw the ball, but he's very hard to cover and makes some pretty spectacular plays on poorly thrown balls. He was the highest regarded receiver in this class coming out of HS, and he chose the wrong program.

I think Byrd is getting pretty high ratings so I didn't list him. Sneaky smart choice with Jai. I love BBallers trying to make the conversion. Draft Daddy just despises the idea. I've been in an email argument with them lately. :lol:

eta RBs. Agreed on Howard.

 
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EBF

Footballguy
Underrated:

Jerome Harrison, Kellen Clemens, Dominique Byrd, Demetrius Williams, Brandon Williams

Overrated:

Sinorice Moss, Vince Young, Jason Avant

 

EBF

Footballguy
The thing about Byrd is that he may never be an elite fantasy TE because he might not be a good enough blocker to ever start for a team, but he's an excellent receiver. He makes circus catches, is extremely coordinated, and runs well after the catch.

 

Sigmund Bloom

Footballguy
Staff member
Watch out for Aromashodu. That offense rarely threw the ball, but he's very hard to cover and makes some pretty spectacular plays on poorly thrown balls. He was the highest regarded receiver in this class coming out of HS, and he chose the wrong program.
I've just never seen Aromashadu play up to his measureables, and he doesnt seem like a natural WR to me, except on deep balls. That being said, His profile looks eerily like Brandon Jones, who was one of the biggest steals of the draft at WR last year.
 

Chaos Commish

Footballguy
I find it interesting that my analysis of other "guru's" ranking found Addai and CJackson to be underrated, but Chaos (and I'm sure others) feel that they're overrated. I think that shows a good example of the issue with "outdated" draft ranking information. Back when alot of my sources were published, those guys were underrated compared to their peers. But now they've both been talked about alot in the last 2-3 weeks and are probably overrated.
Addai just isn't very productive. Great speed, nice hands, willing blocker. Sounds good. Easy to tackle, mediocre vision, hesitant moves, not elusive.Chad Jackson, Donte Stallworth, Antonio Bryant, Bryant Johnson-- similar players all overrated at draft time. I wouldn't suggest the players in the underrated list are better than Jackson (except one). I just think he's getting hyped in a manner like others who were similar, doing okay, but not WR1 quality. Rob Rang talks about him like he's a guaranteed star. He knows more than me, but I think he's overrating this one.

The thing is Harrison could be drafted by the Seahawks and disappear behind Alexander. Addai could go to the Colts and start. We'd never have a true answer because Harrison might have been better in Indy if given the chance.

 

Chaos Commish

Footballguy
Watch out for Aromashodu. That offense rarely threw the ball, but he's very hard to cover and makes some pretty spectacular plays on poorly thrown balls. He was the highest regarded receiver in this class coming out of HS, and he chose the wrong program.
I've just never seen Aromashadu play up to his measureables, and he doesnt seem like a natural WR to me, except on deep balls. That being said, His profile looks eerily like Brandon Jones, who was one of the biggest steals of the draft at WR last year.
Even if he's Ashley Lelie, he's currently underrated. I don't like this class of receivers as a whole, and my expectations are pretty low. I think Devin can be a contributor. Which is saying a lot for this class. :lol: Speaking of Auburn receivers, I think Mix can make it at TE, and would list him as another underrated. Auburn had a lot of talent on the field and very little talent coaching and developing it.

 

ConstruxBoy

Kate's Daddy
Underrated:

Jerome Harrison, Kellen Clemens, Dominique Byrd, Demetrius Williams, Brandon Williams

Overrated:

Sinorice Moss, Vince Young, Jason Avant
I agree with you on Harrison and was surprised to find him overrated by this criteria. I thought his video was pretty impressive. On a side note: Nothing like having a discussion about the overrated and underrated draft prospects with the 2 other guys in my Zealots division. :D

 

strong

Footballguy
What's up with calling projected 3rd-4th round players over-rated?
Maybe they should be 5th-6th round players .....
Errrr... It's dumb. Especially calling a 15th ranked RB over-rated... What's the point? By saying a 3rd-4th round player won't contribute, you'll be right the majority of the time. Big whoop. Over the last 5 drafts, there's been about 3 or 4 3rd & 4th round RBs that have produced worthwhile numbers. Out of at least 35.

And a lot of the players people have mentioned won't be drafted until the 5th or 6th, anyway. Why call Mike Bell or Colston over-rated?

 
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Sigmund Bloom

Footballguy
Staff member
What's up with calling projected 3rd-4th round players over-rated?
Maybe they should be 5th-6th round players .....
Errrr... It's dumb. Especially calling a 15th ranked RB over-rated... What's the point? By saying a 3rd-4th round player won't contribute, you'll be right the majority of the time. Big whoop. Over the last 5 drafts, there's been about 3 or 4 3rd & 4th round RBs that have produced worthwhile numbers. Out of at least 35.

And a lot of the players people have mentioned won't be drafted until the 5th or 6th, anyway. Why call Mike Bell or Colston over-rated?
overrated and underrated just means you think theyre better or worse than the current perception of them. Saying a 3rd/4th graded round RB is overrated is not just saying they won't ever be a fantasy stud, its saying theyll be lucky to stick on a roster. If you only care to hear about the top rated players, then just ignore our ratings about the lower players.
 

strong

Footballguy
What's up with calling projected 3rd-4th round players over-rated?
Maybe they should be 5th-6th round players .....
Errrr... It's dumb. Especially calling a 15th ranked RB over-rated... What's the point? By saying a 3rd-4th round player won't contribute, you'll be right the majority of the time. Big whoop. Over the last 5 drafts, there's been about 3 or 4 3rd & 4th round RBs that have produced worthwhile numbers. Out of at least 35.

And a lot of the players people have mentioned won't be drafted until the 5th or 6th, anyway. Why call Mike Bell or Colston over-rated?
overrated and underrated just means you think theyre better or worse than the current perception of them. Saying a 3rd/4th graded round RB is overrated is not just saying they won't ever be a fantasy stud, its saying theyll be lucky to stick on a roster. If you only care to hear about the top rated players, then just ignore our ratings about the lower players.
I hear ya. I'll chime out.
 

beto

Footballguy
I have a little different take on strong's question and you only have to go back as far as last year to understand why it's good to talk about a player being under or over-rated regardless of their draft position.

Exhibit A: JJ Arrington

Most of us in the Shark Pool were not very high on Arrington leading up to the draft. see this thread. Even after the combine most of the posts did not have him ranked very high.

Then he got drafted into a great situation, and boom, he is being talked about as a top 3 rookie pick.

The fact is we really have no clue what round some of these guys are going to go in, so it's great to get opinions like this out prior to the draft.

 

strong

Footballguy
I have a little different take on strong's question and you only have to go back as far as last year to understand why it's good to talk about a player being under or over-rated regardless of their draft position.

Exhibit A: JJ Arrington

Most of us in the Shark Pool were not very high on Arrington leading up to the draft. see this thread. Even after the combine most of the posts did not have him ranked very high.

Then he got drafted into a great situation, and boom, he is being talked about as a top 3 rookie pick.

The fact is we really have no clue what round some of these guys are going to go in, so it's great to get opinions like this out prior to the draft.
Yeah, I wasn't looking at it that way. Good point.
 

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