Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll
Footballguy
Thanks. Not sure, need to know your scoring, but it can't be quite the same.Nice post, Sonny. How much would this alter in 12-team leagues? Will we be "missing" these good gaps?
Thanks. Not sure, need to know your scoring, but it can't be quite the same.Nice post, Sonny. How much would this alter in 12-team leagues? Will we be "missing" these good gaps?
Im in a 10 team, no PPR league as well. This is what I have been seeing in some of my mocks thus far. The dreaded 4 spot doesn't look so scary this year.Did some mocks and looked over some others. I like this spot...a lot. And in a 10 teamer, no PPR, RB/RB is the way. A couple of things stick out.
In R1, you get the last of some good choices; basic. I actually might take Henry over Gore but that's another topic. If LJ is there, I think you gotta go for it. In it to win it, baby.
In R2, you get the last of the RB tier, which is huge...and you don't want to drop one of them to one of the top 3 draft picks. Secondly, if it's WR that you want, you can wait because you will have the same tier of top WR available to you in R3, NOT SO at RB. This only emphasizes the fact that you DO NOT go WR in R2. So another easy decision (MJD, Portis, McGahee, James).
In R3, we have another nice cutoff, where you can get Gates, should you be so inclined. If not, grab that top tier WR now, before the rest of the teams do. Or, if the last of that tier of RBs I talked about (in R2) drops, you could go there. That would depend on how important depth is to you, if your league has trading, etc. Anyway, another easy decision regardless.
In R4, yet another break comes your way, the last of the top QBs (especially in 6pt TD leagues). I'd take whoever it is (Brees, Bulger, Brady) if you are lucky enough to have them there. If not, you are still looking at a top 10 WR (Walker, Fitz, Evans), which is a nice consolation. As for RB's, I don't like what's available here, and you can get the same one in R5 anyway (on the quick turnaround), which won't happen with WR (there's a drop). So WAIT. Keep in mind, this is ANOTHER reason you must go RB/RB to start.
In R5, you have some options: if you didn't go with Gates, grab someone from the next tier here (Gonzo, Shockey, Heap). Otherwise RB would be prudent, and some decent choices remain (MBIII, Norwood, Green, Foster, Taylor). Additionally, it looks like a sizable gap (again) until your next shot at RB, so if you don't have 3 yet, this is where to go.
So what's that, 3 or 4 fairly obvious/significant gaps in tiers available to the 4-hole owner? I like it a lot.
Yeah, my league is 12 teams with 0.5 PPR, 6 points per passing TD. Everything else is pretty standard.Thanks. Not sure, need to know your scoring, but it can't be quite the same.Nice post, Sonny. How much would this alter in 12-team leagues? Will we be "missing" these good gaps?
Gates being available in the 4th in some of those mocks is a joke. No way he should last that long, NONE. You know your league's tendencies, is there any chance of him being there? I'm actually hoping he "drops" to me in the 3rd, knowing my league.What are your roster requirements, btw? If they're anything like mine, you are overvaluing WRs, and undervaluing RBs. It also appears that your league might overvalue QBs, with you "hoping" for McNabb in the 4th. All of which is fine because you can really take advantage of that. What's your scoring for QBs?And regardless of what I just mentioned, do not go the way of that 2nd team. Looks good on paper, sure, but RBs are WAY too valuable in this format to think you can take your 2nd one in the 6th, much less the 4th for that matter. On top of that, with Gore, who clearly is an injury risk, your season is toast if he misses time. Bad idea, honestly.I've got the fourth pick in a 10-team non-ppr league. I've been mock drafting a ton and Sonny's right, in the second round you're basically guaranteed the last stud running back or a great receiver. It works out really well. Here's what I've been getting pretty consistently.1) Gore2) MJD3) Best Receiver available, usually Roy Williams but sometimes Wayne.4) McNabb5) Evans/NorwoodGates is available occasionally in the fourth round and I have to take him, and hope that Mcnabb comes back in the fifth.I've also been thinking about going this way.1) Gore2) Harrison3) Gates4) McNabb5) Evans6) Norwood7) BettsI'd be gambling big on Norwood or Betts to put up numbers, but if they do, that leads to a pretty stacked team.
My league scoring for qbs is 5 points for a touchdown and one point for every 50 yards passing, with six points for rushing and receiving tds and 1 point for every 20 yards. The rest of the league definitely overvalues qbs, but I think McNabb will have a big year and will be a great value in the fourth or fifth round. Or at least part of a big year and this is a total points league, not head-to-head, so it makes more sense to draft him than in most leagues. Some of the other guys in this league are pretty dumb, though, so I can't always predict accurately where players will go- some way too early or some too late.And really when it came down to it, I never would have drafted that second team in a real draft with money on the line, because you're right, it's too risky. It' s just something I was messing around with in mocks and was curious as to what everyone else thought. Anyway, to take it back away from league specifics, what is everyone thinking for rounds 3-6? I'm pretty sure I'm going RB/RB in the first two rounds but am undecided after that.Gates being available in the 4th in some of those mocks is a joke. No way he should last that long, NONE. You know your league's tendencies, is there any chance of him being there? I'm actually hoping he "drops" to me in the 3rd, knowing my league.What are your roster requirements, btw? If they're anything like mine, you are overvaluing WRs, and undervaluing RBs. It also appears that your league might overvalue QBs, with you "hoping" for McNabb in the 4th. All of which is fine because you can really take advantage of that. What's your scoring for QBs?And regardless of what I just mentioned, do not go the way of that 2nd team. Looks good on paper, sure, but RBs are WAY too valuable in this format to think you can take your 2nd one in the 6th, much less the 4th for that matter. On top of that, with Gore, who clearly is an injury risk, your season is toast if he misses time. Bad idea, honestly.I've got the fourth pick in a 10-team non-ppr league. I've been mock drafting a ton and Sonny's right, in the second round you're basically guaranteed the last stud running back or a great receiver. It works out really well. Here's what I've been getting pretty consistently.1) Gore2) MJD3) Best Receiver available, usually Roy Williams but sometimes Wayne.4) McNabb5) Evans/NorwoodGates is available occasionally in the fourth round and I have to take him, and hope that Mcnabb comes back in the fifth.I've also been thinking about going this way.1) Gore2) Harrison3) Gates4) McNabb5) Evans6) Norwood7) BettsI'd be gambling big on Norwood or Betts to put up numbers, but if they do, that leads to a pretty stacked team.
How many teams are in your league? Manning probably is the right pick at four with those requirements. And I'm not sure I could justify taking Gates early when there are so many other skill positions to fill. Gates is almost definitely going to have a huge year but I would probably go 3 RBs and 2 QBs for my first five picks. I've never played in a two-QB league, so I might not have the strategy down properly, but that's what makes sense to me.I'm in limbo - can anyone help out with these scoring requirementsStart2QB3WR2RB1TE1 RB/WR1 K1 DEFAll TD's 6 points0.5 ppr1 pt per 10 yards rushing1 pt per 25 yards passing1 pt per 20 return yards-2 int-2 fumble lostI wanna go Willie Parker and hope MJD is there in the 2nd but it is torturing me that Manning is the right decision at the #4 and grab a guy like MJD or Portis in the 2nd.Gates in the 3rdI suspect Edge or Deuce will be available in the 4th and grab Cutler as my 2nd QB in the 5th.Looking to go low on the WR's ie grab Coles, Galloway, Bruce
I agree, and I've never done a two QB league either. I'd also lay low on TE until the middle of the draft.How many teams are in your league? Manning probably is the right pick at four with those requirements. And I'm not sure I could justify taking Gates early when there are so many other skill positions to fill. Gates is almost definitely going to have a huge year but I would probably go 3 RBs and 2 QBs for my first five picks. I've never played in a two-QB league, so I might not have the strategy down properly, but that's what makes sense to me.I'm in limbo - can anyone help out with these scoring requirementsStart2QB3WR2RB1TE1 RB/WR1 K1 DEFAll TD's 6 points0.5 ppr1 pt per 10 yards rushing1 pt per 25 yards passing1 pt per 20 return yards-2 int-2 fumble lostI wanna go Willie Parker and hope MJD is there in the 2nd but it is torturing me that Manning is the right decision at the #4 and grab a guy like MJD or Portis in the 2nd.Gates in the 3rdI suspect Edge or Deuce will be available in the 4th and grab Cutler as my 2nd QB in the 5th.Looking to go low on the WR's ie grab Coles, Galloway, Bruce
its a 10 team leagueI've been toying with the idea of goingFWPMcnabbGatesDeuceCutlerI think FWP and Gates are in for Monster Years - McNabb was on pace to do just as well as Manning last year.How many teams are in your league? Manning probably is the right pick at four with those requirements. And I'm not sure I could justify taking Gates early when there are so many other skill positions to fill. Gates is almost definitely going to have a huge year but I would probably go 3 RBs and 2 QBs for my first five picks. I've never played in a two-QB league, so I might not have the strategy down properly, but that's what makes sense to me.I'm in limbo - can anyone help out with these scoring requirementsStart2QB3WR2RB1TE1 RB/WR1 K1 DEFAll TD's 6 points0.5 ppr1 pt per 10 yards rushing1 pt per 25 yards passing1 pt per 20 return yards-2 int-2 fumble lostI wanna go Willie Parker and hope MJD is there in the 2nd but it is torturing me that Manning is the right decision at the #4 and grab a guy like MJD or Portis in the 2nd.Gates in the 3rdI suspect Edge or Deuce will be available in the 4th and grab Cutler as my 2nd QB in the 5th.Looking to go low on the WR's ie grab Coles, Galloway, Bruce
I see alot of guys in this forum extremely high on T Henry this year. I agree that his ceiling is high, but this is Satanahan calling the shots for crissakes. Henry could have a bad game or two and be benched. Or Satanahan could have a wet dream, look at the pattern of the stain, and decide to switch running backs in quarter two and four for the odd numbered weeks.Isnt that a little high for henry? why not trade down if your going to do that.1.4 Henry2.7 Harrison/Smith/TO3.4 McGahee/Portis/Palmer/GatesIf Henry gets taken at 1.3 I'm gonna
I would have no problem going Manning-RB-Gates in that league. Yes, you'll then need to work on RB & WR hard, while grabbing a QB2, but that's a big leg up.its a 10 team leagueI've been toying with the idea of goingFWPMcnabbGatesDeuceCutlerI think FWP and Gates are in for Monster Years - McNabb was on pace to do just as well as Manning last year.How many teams are in your league? Manning probably is the right pick at four with those requirements. And I'm not sure I could justify taking Gates early when there are so many other skill positions to fill. Gates is almost definitely going to have a huge year but I would probably go 3 RBs and 2 QBs for my first five picks. I've never played in a two-QB league, so I might not have the strategy down properly, but that's what makes sense to me.I'm in limbo - can anyone help out with these scoring requirementsStart2QB3WR2RB1TE1 RB/WR1 K1 DEFAll TD's 6 points0.5 ppr1 pt per 10 yards rushing1 pt per 25 yards passing1 pt per 20 return yards-2 int-2 fumble lostI wanna go Willie Parker and hope MJD is there in the 2nd but it is torturing me that Manning is the right decision at the #4 and grab a guy like MJD or Portis in the 2nd.Gates in the 3rdI suspect Edge or Deuce will be available in the 4th and grab Cutler as my 2nd QB in the 5th.Looking to go low on the WR's ie grab Coles, Galloway, Bruce
Yeah, I just can't take Bush that early. Westbrook, maybe. The other two are fine, even if they don't catch much. Tough to discern any big differences there, so go with what you think's the safest. LJ, Gore, Westbrook, Bush, imo.Ugh. Draft is tomorrow night. Have the 4th pick. Latest projections have Westbrook 3rd, LJ 4th, Bush 5th, and Gore 6th in my scoring system. Bush/Gore are separated by one point.I love Reggie Bush but I can't see taking him that early and I'm not taking Westbrook there either. Anyone think I'm crazy?Assuming LJ is there, I'm taking him. Otherwise I'm leaning toward Gore.
The only thing pushing those guys up that high is the 0.5 PPR. I'm just hoping LJ falls and makes this handwringing moot.Yeah, I just can't take Bush that early. Westbrook, maybe. The other two are fine, even if they don't catch much. Tough to discern any big differences there, so go with what you think's the safest. LJ, Gore, Westbrook, Bush, imo.Ugh. Draft is tomorrow night. Have the 4th pick. Latest projections have Westbrook 3rd, LJ 4th, Bush 5th, and Gore 6th in my scoring system. Bush/Gore are separated by one point.I love Reggie Bush but I can't see taking him that early and I'm not taking Westbrook there either. Anyone think I'm crazy?Assuming LJ is there, I'm taking him. Otherwise I'm leaning toward Gore.
The only issue with your RB2, is what if you hate all of these guys? Benson, T.Jones, Lynch, hell Jackson could match the output of that RB2, why not hit up TO?MJD, Portis, McGahee, James
Like your thinking. What if Brees is there in the 3rd/4th? Actually, I'm leaning toward your option #3. I won't take Ronnie Brown in the 2nd round in any circumstance. Probably the same for Edge. MJD or Portis? Definitely. If I don't get that caliber of back I'm going WR/QB (likely) in rounds 2/3, then try for one of the backs you mentioned in the 4th round. WR's are deep - but I want one stud in a 3 WR start league. If I get one, I think I can get startable wideouts in the seventh-tenth rounds to fill the roster. If I can get say Gore, then a Holt caliber WR, then Brady or Brees (Peyton and Palmer likely to be gone, but maybe CP lasts), then I think I have the start of a championship team (all TD's 6 points, hence the goal to get a good QB). I too got burned by QBBC last year. If I do get a quality RB in round two (first choice), then I will likely go WR in round 3 and then get a tier 2 QB in round 4 or 5 (McNabb type, maybe Kitna though with -2 for INT's he scares me). One thing I WON'T do - reach for some tier 3 RB in round two just because he's a starter. I'd rather take flyers and get studs in other positions.Debating my plan of attack for the 4-spot in 12-team redraft, all tds equal. Obviously plans will likely change on draft day, but I like to have a little blueprint.Some of these players listed might be stretches, but you never know.Plan RB1: RB/RB/WR/WR/RBLJ/Gore (I really really like Addai but I'm talking myself out of it)Portis/MJD/Brown/McGahee/EdgeWayne/Fitzgerald/Owens (assumptions: Holt/Harrison/CJohnson, SSmith gone)Driver/Evans/Burress/AJohnsonLewis/AGreen/NorwoodPlan RB2: RB/RB/WR/RB/WRLJ/GorePortis/MJD/Brown/McGahee/EdgeWayne/Fitzgerald/Owens (assumptions: Holt/Harrison/CJohnson/SSmith gone)APeterson/TJones/JacobsSMoss/Edwards/WardPlan WR: RB/WR/WR/RB/RBLJ/GoreHolt/Harrison/CJohnson/SSmith Wayne/Fitzgerald/Owens APeterson/TJones/JacobsLewis/AGreen/NorwoodAnything look weird here?I'm probably ignoring QBs yet again this year early on, but if there is great value in the 3rd (Palmer) or 4th (Brady/Bulger), I'll bite. I just don't see that happening. And if I went RB/WR/WR/QB, I really think I'll be hurting too bad at RB all year.Last year I waited too long for a QB and killed myself with Warner/Brooks/Leinart. This year, the 7th round for us looks to be a good spot to get our QB. We're the 4th pick in that round, and I think the LT2 and SJax teams will already have QBs, so there will probably be no need to grab one in the 6th. Then I always like to come back around the 10th and get that solid backup (and maybe start a mini-QB run) as there are some teams I really want to avoid QB at this year unless it is my #3 (KC, CLE, MIN, OAK...and possibly MIA and ATL).As far as TE goes, I'll be happy waiting a long time this year no matter what position I'm drafting in, unless great value pops up for Gates. Again, unlikely. See who's left around the 8th/9th rounds and determine if you can wait longer or if the right guy is there to snag.
OK, so I think Brady/Palmer in the 3rd I would do, but moreso if I have RB/WR already. Something just smells funny about Brees this year. I think I'll pass on him unless he slides into the 4th or 5th for some reason. I'd rather take a shot in the 7th/8th on Young. The issue I see with Brady/Palmer in the 3rd....I think smart LT owners are going to be all over these two this year, which means we might have to take one in the 2nd. If your draft is flowing and you think there is a good chance to land one of Wayne/Fitzgerald/Owens/Holt/Harrison/CJohnson/SSmith in the 3rd, then maybe this would work. There is risk there becaues if they are gone, you are looking at RWilliams/Housh or those RBs like Brown/Edge/TJones. Tough choice.I do think I like Portis or MJD in the 2nd if they are there. That might put me out of the QB derby as I would like to get a WR in the 3rd unless Palmer is sitting there.Like your thinking. What if Brees is there in the 3rd/4th? Actually, I'm leaning toward your option #3. I won't take Ronnie Brown in the 2nd round in any circumstance. Probably the same for Edge. MJD or Portis? Definitely. If I don't get that caliber of back I'm going WR/QB (likely) in rounds 2/3, then try for one of the backs you mentioned in the 4th round. WR's are deep - but I want one stud in a 3 WR start league. If I get one, I think I can get startable wideouts in the seventh-tenth rounds to fill the roster. If I can get say Gore, then a Holt caliber WR, then Brady or Brees (Peyton and Palmer likely to be gone, but maybe CP lasts), then I think I have the start of a championship team (all TD's 6 points, hence the goal to get a good QB). I too got burned by QBBC last year. If I do get a quality RB in round two (first choice), then I will likely go WR in round 3 and then get a tier 2 QB in round 4 or 5 (McNabb type, maybe Kitna though with -2 for INT's he scares me). One thing I WON'T do - reach for some tier 3 RB in round two just because he's a starter. I'd rather take flyers and get studs in other positions.Debating my plan of attack for the 4-spot in 12-team redraft, all tds equal. Obviously plans will likely change on draft day, but I like to have a little blueprint.Some of these players listed might be stretches, but you never know.Plan RB1: RB/RB/WR/WR/RBLJ/Gore (I really really like Addai but I'm talking myself out of it)Portis/MJD/Brown/McGahee/EdgeWayne/Fitzgerald/Owens (assumptions: Holt/Harrison/CJohnson, SSmith gone)Driver/Evans/Burress/AJohnsonLewis/AGreen/NorwoodPlan RB2: RB/RB/WR/RB/WRLJ/GorePortis/MJD/Brown/McGahee/EdgeWayne/Fitzgerald/Owens (assumptions: Holt/Harrison/CJohnson/SSmith gone)APeterson/TJones/JacobsSMoss/Edwards/WardPlan WR: RB/WR/WR/RB/RBLJ/GoreHolt/Harrison/CJohnson/SSmith Wayne/Fitzgerald/Owens APeterson/TJones/JacobsLewis/AGreen/NorwoodAnything look weird here?I'm probably ignoring QBs yet again this year early on, but if there is great value in the 3rd (Palmer) or 4th (Brady/Bulger), I'll bite. I just don't see that happening. And if I went RB/WR/WR/QB, I really think I'll be hurting too bad at RB all year.Last year I waited too long for a QB and killed myself with Warner/Brooks/Leinart. This year, the 7th round for us looks to be a good spot to get our QB. We're the 4th pick in that round, and I think the LT2 and SJax teams will already have QBs, so there will probably be no need to grab one in the 6th. Then I always like to come back around the 10th and get that solid backup (and maybe start a mini-QB run) as there are some teams I really want to avoid QB at this year unless it is my #3 (KC, CLE, MIN, OAK...and possibly MIA and ATL).As far as TE goes, I'll be happy waiting a long time this year no matter what position I'm drafting in, unless great value pops up for Gates. Again, unlikely. See who's left around the 8th/9th rounds and determine if you can wait longer or if the right guy is there to snag.
I have done a few mock drafts at #4 for a 10 team, nonPPR lg and I have found that you will want to get a WR by the 3rd rnd at the latest. In my last mock, I tried going RB/RB/RB/QB/WR to see what I would get. Below are the results from the first 7 picks:1.04 Gore2.07 McGahee3.04 Edge4.07 Brees5.04 AJohnson6.07 Plax7.04 HeapI had all the intention of going RB/WR/RB/QB, but seeing McGahee and Edge sitting there at my picks really negated that strategy. I think I fell into a trap with this one. So I wanted to throw this out there to the Shark Pool as an FYI. If I do any more mocks, I'll update them here.Debating my plan of attack for the 4-spot in 12-team redraft, all tds equal. Obviously plans will likely change on draft day, but I like to have a little blueprint.Some of these players listed might be stretches, but you never know.Plan RB1: RB/RB/WR/WR/RBLJ/Gore (I really really like Addai but I'm talking myself out of it)Portis/MJD/Brown/McGahee/EdgeWayne/Fitzgerald/Owens (assumptions: Holt/Harrison/CJohnson, SSmith gone)Driver/Evans/Burress/AJohnsonLewis/AGreen/NorwoodPlan RB2: RB/RB/WR/RB/WRLJ/GorePortis/MJD/Brown/McGahee/EdgeWayne/Fitzgerald/Owens (assumptions: Holt/Harrison/CJohnson/SSmith gone)APeterson/TJones/JacobsSMoss/Edwards/WardPlan WR: RB/WR/WR/RB/RBLJ/GoreHolt/Harrison/CJohnson/SSmith Wayne/Fitzgerald/Owens APeterson/TJones/JacobsLewis/AGreen/NorwoodAnything look weird here?I'm probably ignoring QBs yet again this year early on, but if there is great value in the 3rd (Palmer) or 4th (Brady/Bulger), I'll bite. I just don't see that happening. And if I went RB/WR/WR/QB, I really think I'll be hurting too bad at RB all year.Last year I waited too long for a QB and killed myself with Warner/Brooks/Leinart. This year, the 7th round for us looks to be a good spot to get our QB. We're the 4th pick in that round, and I think the LT2 and SJax teams will already have QBs, so there will probably be no need to grab one in the 6th. Then I always like to come back around the 10th and get that solid backup (and maybe start a mini-QB run) as there are some teams I really want to avoid QB at this year unless it is my #3 (KC, CLE, MIN, OAK...and possibly MIA and ATL).As far as TE goes, I'll be happy waiting a long time this year no matter what position I'm drafting in, unless great value pops up for Gates. Again, unlikely. See who's left around the 8th/9th rounds and determine if you can wait longer or if the right guy is there to snag.