Drafting philosophy. (1 Viewer)

[Family Matters]

I know many people have differing opinions about how to draft but it got me to wondering what is your philosopy? Why is this your philosophy and how do you use it? I'm going to hold off on mine because I haven't yet figured out what it is exactly or at least how to phrase it. I've shared my factors before. What every player must have to be good:

1. Talent.

2. Motivation.

3. Opportunity.

Without these they're probably not going to do much fantasy scoring.

So sound off and tell us what your drafting philosophy is.

 

[Borat]

Take the best player on the board, regardless of position, then make trades from your position of strength.

 

[David Yudkin]

Opportunity is always #1 in my book when it comes to redraft leagues. Track record would be next with supporting cast pretty close thereafter. Talent is probably next on my list followed by health.

IMO, there are plenty of players that have been in good situations that have gotten decent OL play or good QB that have put up decent numbers but have not had crazy mad skills. For example, I never felt that Curtis Martin was the most talented RB, yet he kept getting the ball, mostly stayed healthy, and there never was much change in the philosophy of giving him the ball. Based on skills alone, there were plenty of other backs that did not get the opportunities he did.

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

Take the best player on the board, regardless of position, then make trades from your position of strength.

Maybe my main redraft league is in the minority, but trades are a lot harder to come by. I can't count on the strategy of stockpiling talent at one position in hopes of trading it for eqaul value. It sounds good on paper, but rarely works out in the real life application (at least for me).As David said having opportunity is a big key.

As for actual drafting by position, for me my strategy is to be sure I have at least 1 (preferably 2) Stud Wide Recievers. For a longtime I was a RB RB RB guy. Problem is I was always scrambling for WR talent, waiting till 5 mins before gametime to figure out which scrub to start at WR. It usually became a game of which so-so WRs do I start this week Stallworth or maybe Lee Evans? Jerry Porter looks to have a good matchup. Sure you can win that way, but it is also a recipe for a lot of tough losses. Now I like to go RB WR WR in my perfect draft (obvisouly each draft is different). I prefer to have guys like Fitzgerald and Harrison in the lineup every week and take my chances on figuring out who to start at RB #2 with my stock pile of flyers and also rans each week.

PS: QB by committee 4evah!

 

[Family Matters]

Take the best player on the board, regardless of position, then make trades from your position of strength.

I have a question about this strategy:What do you do when you have a good player available at another posititon but you don't need that player. Further, you have a need at another position that must be filled. The best player available for the position of need is not as good as the other player. Which do you take?

What if the next best player will be a huge drop if you wait? Do you still go with the "best player available" strategy? IOW-when, if ever, do you bail from "best available player" strategy?

 

[Z-Dog]

Agreed - in redraft, opportunity is king. Mike Anderson, Domanick Davis, Bobby Engram, and Terry Glenn all come to mind.

I would qualify that by saying that at QB opportunity is somewhat less important. That's primarily b/c when a team is struggling, the QB is the guy who usually loses his job. At RB or WR, your guy might lose a few carries as the team tries out somebody else. At QB, you lose everything, so I'm very hesitant when selecting QBs with highly drafted or highly capable backups behind them. This year, I worry about Kurt Warner and Michael Vick in particular.

 

[David Yudkin]

The problem I have run into with the best player available approach has been that I have had trouble getting fair value in return. Maybe I have a reputation for fleecing owners and therefore don't get much play when it comes to trades. Maybe it also is a factor of the leagues I've been in don't do much trading. IMO, trying to sell off an extra Top 10 RB and getting offers of the #35 WR and #15 TE are laughable in my book.

 

[Family Matters]

Take the best player on the board, regardless of position, then make trades from your position of strength.

Maybe my main redraft league is in the minority, but trades are a lot harder to come by. I can't count on the strategy of stockpiling talent at one position in hopes of trading it for eqaul value. It sounds good on paper, but rarely works out in the real life application (at least for me).As David said having opportunity is a big key.

As for actual drafting by position, for me my strategy is to be sure I have at least 1 (preferably 2) Stud Wide Recievers. For a longtime I was a RB RB RB guy. Problem is I was always scrambling for WR talent, waiting till 5 mins before gametime to figure out which scrub to start at WR. It usually became a game of which so-so WRs do I start this week Stallworth or maybe Lee Evans? Jerry Porter looks to have a good matchup. Sure you can win that way, but it is also a recipe for a lot of tough losses. Now I like to go RB WR WR in my perfect draft (obvisouly each draft is different). I prefer to have guys like Fitzgerald and Harrison in the lineup every week and take my chances on figuring out who to start at RB #2 with my stock pile of flyers and also rans each week.

PS: QB by committee 4evah!

Great point about trades. Obviously this is a risk with that strategy. I would prefer to control my destiny by fillinf my needs. Perhaps a trade down (if allowed) would be a better option in this scenario.As for the stud RB v WR theory, sounds like you're in the same boat either way. Which RB2 to start versus which WR 2-3 to start. My experience has been that it's a little easier to find a WR2-3 later in the draft than a RB2. So now you've got me wondering about why it's working better this way. Can you elaborate or have you found a good system for finding mid-round RB's that's working? Any insight would be greatly appreciated.

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

The problem I have run into with the best player available approach has been that I have had trouble getting fair value in return. Maybe I have a reputation for fleecing owners and therefore don't get much play when it comes to trades. Maybe it also is a factor of the leagues I've been in don't do much trading. IMO, trying to sell off an extra Top 10 RB and getting offers of the #35 WR and #15 TE are laughable in my book.

Bingo, that's the usual trade offer. I'll give you Lee Evans and Cooley for tiki barber. No? How about Evans, Eric Parker, and Cooley for Lamont Jordan. What No? Evans is good, cmon!

 

[Family Matters]

Agreed - in redraft, opportunity is king. Mike Anderson, Domanick Davis, Bobby Engram, and Terry Glenn all come to mind.

I would qualify that by saying that at QB opportunity is somewhat less important. That's primarily b/c when a team is struggling, the QB is the guy who usually loses his job. At RB or WR, your guy might lose a few carries as the team tries out somebody else. At QB, you lose everything, so I'm very hesitant when selecting QBs with highly drafted or highly capable backups behind them. This year, I worry about Kurt Warner and Michael Vick in particular.

Reading this post brings the term "sleepers" to mind. How many of you plan your draft around getting targeted sleepers at a certain position so you can focus earlier picks at another position? I know I do. So I guess this is part of my philosophy and big part:"Identify sleepers and value picks and their ADP's and identify which ones can help me win my league".

This is crucail when drafting against sharks. And believe me everyone has different sleepers.

 

[David Yudkin]

Agreed - in redraft, opportunity is king. Mike Anderson, Domanick Davis, Bobby Engram, and Terry Glenn all come to mind.

I would qualify that by saying that at QB opportunity is somewhat less important. That's primarily b/c when a team is struggling, the QB is the guy who usually loses his job. At RB or WR, your guy might lose a few carries as the team tries out somebody else. At QB, you lose everything, so I'm very hesitant when selecting QBs with highly drafted or highly capable backups behind them. This year, I worry about Kurt Warner and Michael Vick in particular.

Reading this post brings the term "sleepers" to mind. How many of you plan your draft around getting targeted sleepers at a certain position so you can focus earlier picks at another position? I know I do. So I guess this is part of my philosophy and big part:"Identify sleepers and ADP and identify which ones can help me win my league".

This is crucail when drafting against sharks. And believe me everyone has different sleepers.

The part you bolded is generally what I have found to keep me competitive in most leagues I'm in. I may not hit on the guys at the top, but I generally can pull some decent value in the middle rounds and can normally pick a rabbit out of my #### in the late rounds that pays big dividends.That way you can still stand a chance against teams that somehow end up with the Larry Johnsons and Shaun Alexanders of the world, even if they are on the same fantasy team.

 

[wannabee]

Agreed - in redraft, opportunity is king. Mike Anderson, Domanick Davis, Bobby Engram, and Terry Glenn all come to mind.

I would qualify that by saying that at QB opportunity is somewhat less important. That's primarily b/c when a team is struggling, the QB is the guy who usually loses his job. At RB or WR, your guy might lose a few carries as the team tries out somebody else. At QB, you lose everything, so I'm very hesitant when selecting QBs with highly drafted or highly capable backups behind them. This year, I worry about Kurt Warner and Michael Vick in particular.

Reading this post brings the term "sleepers" to mind. How many of you plan your draft around getting targeted sleepers at a certain position so you can focus earlier picks at another position? I know I do. So I guess this is part of my philosophy and big part:"Identify sleepers and ADP and identify which ones can help me win my league".

This is crucail when drafting against sharks. And believe me everyone has different sleepers.

The best part about planning your draft around sleepers is that the owners either think you reached by a long way (guppies) or say "good pick, he was next on my list" (sharks)

 

[msommer]

My philosophy is : Always play in auction leagues.

 

[EBF]

Dynasty: With each pick, take the best available talent who probably won't be available when your next pick comes up.

I really don't worry much about player situations or about filling out a starting lineup. Those problems take care of themselves if you pick the right players.

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

Take the best player on the board, regardless of position, then make trades from your position of strength.

Maybe my main redraft league is in the minority, but trades are a lot harder to come by. I can't count on the strategy of stockpiling talent at one position in hopes of trading it for eqaul value. It sounds good on paper, but rarely works out in the real life application (at least for me).As David said having opportunity is a big key.

As for actual drafting by position, for me my strategy is to be sure I have at least 1 (preferably 2) Stud Wide Recievers. For a longtime I was a RB RB RB guy. Problem is I was always scrambling for WR talent, waiting till 5 mins before gametime to figure out which scrub to start at WR. It usually became a game of which so-so WRs do I start this week Stallworth or maybe Lee Evans? Jerry Porter looks to have a good matchup. Sure you can win that way, but it is also a recipe for a lot of tough losses. Now I like to go RB WR WR in my perfect draft (obvisouly each draft is different). I prefer to have guys like Fitzgerald and Harrison in the lineup every week and take my chances on figuring out who to start at RB #2 with my stock pile of flyers and also rans each week.

PS: QB by committee 4evah!

Great point about trades. Obviously this is a risk with that strategy. I would prefer to control my destiny by fillinf my needs. Perhaps a trade down (if allowed) would be a better option in this scenario.As for the stud RB v WR theory, sounds like you're in the same boat either way. Which RB2 to start versus which WR 2-3 to start. My experience has been that it's a little easier to find a WR2-3 later in the draft than a RB2. So now you've got me wondering about why it's working better this way. Can you elaborate or have you found a good system for finding mid-round RB's that's working? Any insight would be greatly appreciated.

FM, do me a quick favor and go look at the Championship game lineups in your most competitve league your in. Tell me who they had going at RB and WR. The 2 Teams (mine included) that played in the Championship of my 12 Team League last season Started 4 of the top 6 scoring WR in the League (Smith, Holt, Fitz, Harrison). But the teams combine to have only 1 RB in the top 10. The year before the final pitted 4 of the Top 9 Wideouts but only 2 of the top 10 RBs.

 

[SSOG]

Take the best player on the board, regardless of position, then make trades from your position of strength.

Another problem with this strategy is that the player's VALUE isn't important, it's his PERCEIVED value.To give a somewhat extreme example... let's go with Mike Anderson last offseason. Let's say you thought he was far and away a top-10 RB (and therefore had a value on par with a late first round selection). The other owners in your league disagreed, and so he slid to the 16th round, where you gleefully snatched him up. Good luck trying to shop him. Even if you're in a trade happy league, the fact that you got him in the 16th means the owners don't VALUE him higher than a 16th, and so they'll only trade you 16th-round value for him.

Now, let's say you think that Andre Johnson is a total turd last season, but he slips to the 16th (mostly because everyone's drunk and not paying attention). You have a choice between Anderson (stud) and Johnson (turd) in a trade-happy league. The smarter move would be to grab Johnson, since his PERCEIVED value was so much higher. Even if you think he's a turd, you could GET a lot more for him. For instance, you could ship him off for a 7th or 8th round player and probably get Mike Anderson thrown in for good measure.

Which brings me to my huge draft strategy. KNOW YOUR LEAGUE. KNOW COMMON OPINION. Disagree with it, absolutely, but KNOW it inside and out. You have to know who's going to go where. Also, keep track of how many players at each position each owner has.

An example. Let's say that you have the #2 rated defense as a 14th round prospect, but you know that the rest of your league is going to start looking at defenses in the 10th round. If the 12th round comes around and someone grabs the 1st rated defense, then it might not be a bad idea to "reach" and grab the #2 rated defense right them. Yes, you are grabbing it higher than you have it rated, but if your league really goes into a long run of defenses, then you actually didn't lose any ground in draft position (it's like you just held the 14th round of the draft 2 rounds early).

Okay, now an example to the opposite side. Let's say you have the #1 rated defense as a 10th round prospect, but know that the rest of your league never picks up defenses before the final 4 rounds of the draft. Well, in that case, ignore the fact that your board is saying that this defense is the best pick available, and let it slide to the 16th or something. You still pick up your defense, but the cost is a lot less.

That's a pretty basic summary of knowing common opinion... but knowing your league's needs can be a very powerful tool.

For instance, I draft in a league that has roster limits on the draft. Everyone MUST draft 4 QBs, 6 RBs, 6 WRs, 2 TEs, 2 PKs, and 2 Defs. If everyone else in your league has drafted 6 RBs by the 12th round, and you only have 4, you can ignore that position entirely until the final 2 rounds of the draft, since no one else can take an RB. The exact same players will be available then as are available now, so spend your time grabbing WRs, or QBs, or whatever. Paying attention to the number of players left in a tier and the needs of the teams drafting before your next pick also gives you a very good way of knowing if you can let a particular player slide without worrying about the league snatching up the entire tier (and thus forcing you to take a reduction in value with your next pick).

The entire goal behind working the draft as opposed to just drafting based on your board is a chess concept. Ever pick should do two things. It should benefit your team as much as possible... but it should also gain you a *TIME* advantage. The whole concept of Time in chess pertains to developing as much of your pieces as you can without compromising your position of strength. In a draft, it's much the same theory. You want to develop your roster as a whole as much as possible without sacrificing on value.

The theory behind gaining "Time" in a draft relies a lot on tiers. The later you can grab a player without dropping a tier, the more "time" advantage you gain. So if you grab a high 2nd-tier WR in the 3rd, and I grab a low 2nd-tier WR in the 6th, you may have gained more player value than I did on the deal, but I gained a ton of "time" on you.

A lot of emphasis is placed on quality of projections, and that is indeed a very important componant of the draft, but I guarantee you that if your projections are slightly better than mine, and my knowledge of you and the rest of the league is drastically better than your knowledge of me and the rest of the league, I will "beat" you in the draft 10 times out of 10. I will get more value than you do, and I will get it later than you do. As an example... let's say we're in a guppy league where everyone sluffs 2nd RBs until the 8th round. You go by your board and draft 5 top-24 RBs in the first 5 rounds. I go by my knowledge of the league, and snag myself a pair of top-12 RBs, but then fill out my roster by "reaching" on QBs and WRs who probably shouldn't be going until the 10th. The result? You're stacked at RB, but by the time to get around to QBs and WRs, you're left with scrubs and borderline starters. I'm stacked at RB (although not as deep), but have quality QBs, WRs, and TEs... and then when the rest of the league turns its attentions to RBs, I can quietly add a little bit of quality depth at a much better "time" value than you did, adding RBs of the same tier several rounds later than you got yours. To add insult to injury, I can then offer to trade some of my "scrub" players that I "reached" on for those studs you were drafting, and you'll be forced to accept, since you're entirely lacking that position. I mean, imagine the horror you would feel if you were loading up on RBs in the first 8 rounds while the rest of the league quietly drafted 36 QBs.

In short, don't neglect the human element of the draft. It's possibly the single most important aspect of all.

 

[SSOG]

Take the best player on the board, regardless of position, then make trades from your position of strength.

Maybe my main redraft league is in the minority, but trades are a lot harder to come by. I can't count on the strategy of stockpiling talent at one position in hopes of trading it for eqaul value. It sounds good on paper, but rarely works out in the real life application (at least for me).As David said having opportunity is a big key.

As for actual drafting by position, for me my strategy is to be sure I have at least 1 (preferably 2) Stud Wide Recievers. For a longtime I was a RB RB RB guy. Problem is I was always scrambling for WR talent, waiting till 5 mins before gametime to figure out which scrub to start at WR. It usually became a game of which so-so WRs do I start this week Stallworth or maybe Lee Evans? Jerry Porter looks to have a good matchup. Sure you can win that way, but it is also a recipe for a lot of tough losses. Now I like to go RB WR WR in my perfect draft (obvisouly each draft is different). I prefer to have guys like Fitzgerald and Harrison in the lineup every week and take my chances on figuring out who to start at RB #2 with my stock pile of flyers and also rans each week.

PS: QB by committee 4evah!

Great point about trades. Obviously this is a risk with that strategy. I would prefer to control my destiny by fillinf my needs. Perhaps a trade down (if allowed) would be a better option in this scenario.As for the stud RB v WR theory, sounds like you're in the same boat either way. Which RB2 to start versus which WR 2-3 to start. My experience has been that it's a little easier to find a WR2-3 later in the draft than a RB2. So now you've got me wondering about why it's working better this way. Can you elaborate or have you found a good system for finding mid-round RB's that's working? Any insight would be greatly appreciated.

FM, do me a quick favor and go look at the Championship game lineups in your most competitve league your in. Tell me who they had going at RB and WR. The 2 Teams (mine included) that played in the Championship of my 12 Team League last season Started 4 of the top 6 scoring WR in the League (Smith, Holt, Fitz, Harrison). But the teams combine to have only 1 RB in the top 10. The year before the final pitted 4 of the Top 9 Wideouts but only 2 of the top 10 RBs.

On the other hand, how many of those top-10 WRs were taken in the first 3 rounds?The reason why championship teams have more top-10 WRs than top-10 RBs is because you're more likely to grab a WR late and have him become a stud, carrying your team to a championship since he was essentially a "free" pick in addition to your first 3.

Edit: In short, getting top-10 WRs doesn't give you a greater chance of making it to the FF Championship... getting top-10 WRs in the 6th round or later does. Go ahead and look at how many teams drafted 2 WRs in the first 3 rounds and made the championship sometime.

 

[Varmint]

My strategy is to look for an AUCTION format....

The draft is dead.

 

[David Yudkin]

Look at the Championship game lineups in your most competitve league your in. Tell me who they had going at RB and WR.

I looked at my rosters from the two championships I was in last year.One had Anderson and Dunn at RB, CJohnson at WR, and Gates at TE (with AGreen on IR).The other had Edge and Gates but a lot of decent WR (SSmith, Galloway, Glenn, and Kennison).If nothing else, from my teams it shows that you can get decent WR production late. Several of the WR that went early were not worth the investment (Moss, Owens, Horn, Jackson, AJohnson, Williams, etc.)I still think it is harder to get an uber stud RB late than it is a stud QB, WR, or TE late.

 

[SSOG]

My strategy is to look for an AUCTION format....

The draft is dead.

Auction is nice, but you can do a lot of things in Draft that you can't do in Auction. For instance, in Auction, you never know what needs a team is going to address next.I think both formats have their strengths and their weaknesses. I also think that, with a solid knowledge of your league, both formats are ripe for exploitation.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Involved question, so I'll try to condense it.

Play the odds

Odds are you will find more WR/QB bargains found later than RB bargains. Not saying eschew all WRs/QBs until round 6, but when in doubt, err on the side of the odds. It all depends on who is available when you pick, but your fleet of WRs is one that will be the least understood by EVERYONE post draft. The guy getting kudos for his fleet of WRs in August is the same guy adding 2 new WRs every week hoping he gets a starter the rest of the year.

You have to do a bit of research to know what the "odds" are on certain topics.

Assume your league mates are smart

All too often you will consider yourself so clever about certain players and value and fail to understand that the other people in your league are clever too. You aren't the only guy in the league who thinks Darrell Jackson is a huge steal at his current ADP. ADP is a general tool to get an IDEA where players are going, but all bets are off when that clocks start.

You have to take bigger risks in a competitive league, because all the undervalued players aren't gonna fall to you. You have to be willing to pounce on a player you really are sold on.

Don't be afraid to trust the 'ole gut .

Sometimes, stats are no substitute for the gut feeling, especially once you get into later round players who all look remarkably similar. Close the excel spreadsheets and five open windows to pro-football-reference.com... There's isn't a magic stat lurking out there that will help you decide between Josh Reed and Scotty Vines.

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

Take the best player on the board, regardless of position, then make trades from your position of strength.

Maybe my main redraft league is in the minority, but trades are a lot harder to come by. I can't count on the strategy of stockpiling talent at one position in hopes of trading it for eqaul value. It sounds good on paper, but rarely works out in the real life application (at least for me).As David said having opportunity is a big key.

As for actual drafting by position, for me my strategy is to be sure I have at least 1 (preferably 2) Stud Wide Recievers. For a longtime I was a RB RB RB guy. Problem is I was always scrambling for WR talent, waiting till 5 mins before gametime to figure out which scrub to start at WR. It usually became a game of which so-so WRs do I start this week Stallworth or maybe Lee Evans? Jerry Porter looks to have a good matchup. Sure you can win that way, but it is also a recipe for a lot of tough losses. Now I like to go RB WR WR in my perfect draft (obvisouly each draft is different). I prefer to have guys like Fitzgerald and Harrison in the lineup every week and take my chances on figuring out who to start at RB #2 with my stock pile of flyers and also rans each week.

PS: QB by committee 4evah!

Great point about trades. Obviously this is a risk with that strategy. I would prefer to control my destiny by fillinf my needs. Perhaps a trade down (if allowed) would be a better option in this scenario.As for the stud RB v WR theory, sounds like you're in the same boat either way. Which RB2 to start versus which WR 2-3 to start. My experience has been that it's a little easier to find a WR2-3 later in the draft than a RB2. So now you've got me wondering about why it's working better this way. Can you elaborate or have you found a good system for finding mid-round RB's that's working? Any insight would be greatly appreciated.

FM, do me a quick favor and go look at the Championship game lineups in your most competitve league your in. Tell me who they had going at RB and WR. The 2 Teams (mine included) that played in the Championship of my 12 Team League last season Started 4 of the top 6 scoring WR in the League (Smith, Holt, Fitz, Harrison). But the teams combine to have only 1 RB in the top 10. The year before the final pitted 4 of the Top 9 Wideouts but only 2 of the top 10 RBs.

On the other hand, how many of those top-10 WRs were taken in the first 3 rounds?The reason why championship teams have more top-10 WRs than top-10 RBs is because you're more likely to grab a WR late and have him become a stud, carrying your team to a championship since he was essentially a "free" pick in addition to your first 3.

Edit: In short, getting top-10 WRs doesn't give you a greater chance of making it to the FF Championship... getting top-10 WRs in the 6th round or later does. Go ahead and look at how many teams drafted 2 WRs in the first 3 rounds and made the championship sometime.

One team selected their WR in Rds 2 and 3 (led the league in scoring), the other in Rds 3 and 4 (3rd in scoring). The Runningbacks in the champ game were Gado, T Jones, Jonathon Wells and, S Alexander (One stud). Edit: I disagree with your edit , in short getting 2 top 10 WR however you can will give you a good shot at the Championship game. If you can get them in rd 6 great, more power to you, but if you have to get them in RD 2 and 3, well it works too.

 

[Finatic]

Dynasty: With each pick, take the best available talent who probably won't be available when your next pick comes up.

I really don't worry much about player situations or about filling out a starting lineup. Those problems take care of themselves if you pick the right players.

 

[jurb26]

Take the best player on the board, regardless of position, then make trades from your position of strength.

Another problem with this strategy is that the player's VALUE isn't important, it's his PERCEIVED value.To give a somewhat extreme example... let's go with Mike Anderson last offseason. Let's say you thought he was far and away a top-10 RB (and therefore had a value on par with a late first round selection). The other owners in your league disagreed, and so he slid to the 16th round, where you gleefully snatched him up. Good luck trying to shop him. Even if you're in a trade happy league, the fact that you got him in the 16th means the owners don't VALUE him higher than a 16th, and so they'll only trade you 16th-round value for him.

Now, let's say you think that Andre Johnson is a total turd last season, but he slips to the 16th (mostly because everyone's drunk and not paying attention). You have a choice between Anderson (stud) and Johnson (turd) in a trade-happy league. The smarter move would be to grab Johnson, since his PERCEIVED value was so much higher. Even if you think he's a turd, you could GET a lot more for him. For instance, you could ship him off for a 7th or 8th round player and probably get Mike Anderson thrown in for good measure.

Which brings me to my huge draft strategy. KNOW YOUR LEAGUE. KNOW COMMON OPINION. Disagree with it, absolutely, but KNOW it inside and out. You have to know who's going to go where. Also, keep track of how many players at each position each owner has.

An example. Let's say that you have the #2 rated defense as a 14th round prospect, but you know that the rest of your league is going to start looking at defenses in the 10th round. If the 12th round comes around and someone grabs the 1st rated defense, then it might not be a bad idea to "reach" and grab the #2 rated defense right them. Yes, you are grabbing it higher than you have it rated, but if your league really goes into a long run of defenses, then you actually didn't lose any ground in draft position (it's like you just held the 14th round of the draft 2 rounds early).

Okay, now an example to the opposite side. Let's say you have the #1 rated defense as a 10th round prospect, but know that the rest of your league never picks up defenses before the final 4 rounds of the draft. Well, in that case, ignore the fact that your board is saying that this defense is the best pick available, and let it slide to the 16th or something. You still pick up your defense, but the cost is a lot less.

That's a pretty basic summary of knowing common opinion... but knowing your league's needs can be a very powerful tool.

For instance, I draft in a league that has roster limits on the draft. Everyone MUST draft 4 QBs, 6 RBs, 6 WRs, 2 TEs, 2 PKs, and 2 Defs. If everyone else in your league has drafted 6 RBs by the 12th round, and you only have 4, you can ignore that position entirely until the final 2 rounds of the draft, since no one else can take an RB. The exact same players will be available then as are available now, so spend your time grabbing WRs, or QBs, or whatever. Paying attention to the number of players left in a tier and the needs of the teams drafting before your next pick also gives you a very good way of knowing if you can let a particular player slide without worrying about the league snatching up the entire tier (and thus forcing you to take a reduction in value with your next pick).

The entire goal behind working the draft as opposed to just drafting based on your board is a chess concept. Ever pick should do two things. It should benefit your team as much as possible... but it should also gain you a *TIME* advantage. The whole concept of Time in chess pertains to developing as much of your pieces as you can without compromising your position of strength. In a draft, it's much the same theory. You want to develop your roster as a whole as much as possible without sacrificing on value.

The theory behind gaining "Time" in a draft relies a lot on tiers. The later you can grab a player without dropping a tier, the more "time" advantage you gain. So if you grab a high 2nd-tier WR in the 3rd, and I grab a low 2nd-tier WR in the 6th, you may have gained more player value than I did on the deal, but I gained a ton of "time" on you.

A lot of emphasis is placed on quality of projections, and that is indeed a very important componant of the draft, but I guarantee you that if your projections are slightly better than mine, and my knowledge of you and the rest of the league is drastically better than your knowledge of me and the rest of the league, I will "beat" you in the draft 10 times out of 10. I will get more value than you do, and I will get it later than you do. As an example... let's say we're in a guppy league where everyone sluffs 2nd RBs until the 8th round. You go by your board and draft 5 top-24 RBs in the first 5 rounds. I go by my knowledge of the league, and snag myself a pair of top-12 RBs, but then fill out my roster by "reaching" on QBs and WRs who probably shouldn't be going until the 10th. The result? You're stacked at RB, but by the time to get around to QBs and WRs, you're left with scrubs and borderline starters. I'm stacked at RB (although not as deep), but have quality QBs, WRs, and TEs... and then when the rest of the league turns its attentions to RBs, I can quietly add a little bit of quality depth at a much better "time" value than you did, adding RBs of the same tier several rounds later than you got yours. To add insult to injury, I can then offer to trade some of my "scrub" players that I "reached" on for those studs you were drafting, and you'll be forced to accept, since you're entirely lacking that position. I mean, imagine the horror you would feel if you were loading up on RBs in the first 8 rounds while the rest of the league quietly drafted 36 QBs.

In short, don't neglect the human element of the draft. It's possibly the single most important aspect of all.

Which is why you wait 2 weeks into the season and trade him then... exactly like I did last year. I don't exactly agree with what your saying here though. If you use Anderson as the example, then the reason that most did not value him as anything higher than a 16th rounder is because they were not convinced that he was starting. Actually they were totally convinced otherwise and that Bell was starting. Preseason should have cleared all that up but even if your league is stuborn, like mine was, you still only have to wait a few weeks to get a return on your investment. Most guys should have been very able to trade Anderson before the year though.

 

[Family Matters]

Agreed - in redraft, opportunity is king. Mike Anderson, Domanick Davis, Bobby Engram, and Terry Glenn all come to mind.

I would qualify that by saying that at QB opportunity is somewhat less important. That's primarily b/c when a team is struggling, the QB is the guy who usually loses his job. At RB or WR, your guy might lose a few carries as the team tries out somebody else. At QB, you lose everything, so I'm very hesitant when selecting QBs with highly drafted or highly capable backups behind them. This year, I worry about Kurt Warner and Michael Vick in particular.

Reading this post brings the term "sleepers" to mind. How many of you plan your draft around getting targeted sleepers at a certain position so you can focus earlier picks at another position? I know I do. So I guess this is part of my philosophy and big part:"Identify sleepers and ADP and identify which ones can help me win my league".

This is crucail when drafting against sharks. And believe me everyone has different sleepers.

The part you bolded is generally what I have found to keep me competitive in most leagues I'm in. I may not hit on the guys at the top, but I generally can pull some decent value in the middle rounds and can normally pick a rabbit out of my #### in the late rounds that pays big dividends.That way you can still stand a chance against teams that somehow end up with the Larry Johnsons and Shaun Alexanders of the world, even if they are on the same fantasy team.

No way that's ever happened.

 

[Family Matters]

Take the best player on the board, regardless of position, then make trades from your position of strength.

Maybe my main redraft league is in the minority, but trades are a lot harder to come by. I can't count on the strategy of stockpiling talent at one position in hopes of trading it for eqaul value. It sounds good on paper, but rarely works out in the real life application (at least for me).As David said having opportunity is a big key.

As for actual drafting by position, for me my strategy is to be sure I have at least 1 (preferably 2) Stud Wide Recievers. For a longtime I was a RB RB RB guy. Problem is I was always scrambling for WR talent, waiting till 5 mins before gametime to figure out which scrub to start at WR. It usually became a game of which so-so WRs do I start this week Stallworth or maybe Lee Evans? Jerry Porter looks to have a good matchup. Sure you can win that way, but it is also a recipe for a lot of tough losses. Now I like to go RB WR WR in my perfect draft (obvisouly each draft is different). I prefer to have guys like Fitzgerald and Harrison in the lineup every week and take my chances on figuring out who to start at RB #2 with my stock pile of flyers and also rans each week.

PS: QB by committee 4evah!

Great point about trades. Obviously this is a risk with that strategy. I would prefer to control my destiny by fillinf my needs. Perhaps a trade down (if allowed) would be a better option in this scenario.As for the stud RB v WR theory, sounds like you're in the same boat either way. Which RB2 to start versus which WR 2-3 to start. My experience has been that it's a little easier to find a WR2-3 later in the draft than a RB2. So now you've got me wondering about why it's working better this way. Can you elaborate or have you found a good system for finding mid-round RB's that's working? Any insight would be greatly appreciated.

FM, do me a quick favor and go look at the Championship game lineups in your most competitve league your in. Tell me who they had going at RB and WR. The 2 Teams (mine included) that played in the Championship of my 12 Team League last season Started 4 of the top 6 scoring WR in the League (Smith, Holt, Fitz, Harrison). But the teams combine to have only 1 RB in the top 10. The year before the final pitted 4 of the Top 9 Wideouts but only 2 of the top 10 RBs.

My initial thought was that doesn't happen in my leagues. Then I checked to be sure. I can't find any leagues I've played whereby that's happened. Not saying it can't but I find it's more unusual than normal. Could be the group you're playing with too.I do know it's a strategy that can work. But my point was and is (I think Yudkin said the same too) that it's easier to find some quality WR's later in the draft then RB's. I also realize that with injuries it can create some mid season opportunites to have quality RB's that don't finish with big YTD numbers but have high PPG numbers. E.g., grabbing a Gado off waivers.

 

[SSOG]

Which is why you wait 2 weeks into the season and trade him then... exactly like I did last year. I don't exactly agree with what your saying here though. If you use Anderson as the example, then the reason that most did not value him as anything higher than a 16th rounder is because they were not convinced that he was starting. Actually they were totally convinced otherwise and that Bell was starting. Preseason should have cleared all that up but even if your league is stuborn, like mine was, you still only have to wait a few weeks to get a return on your investment. Most guys should have been very able to trade Anderson before the year though.

Well, in that case, you have to go 2 or more weeks with a glaring deficiency at certain positions while waiting for your extra guys to prove their value.Either way, that doesn't disprove my point at all. Why couldn't you move him before the season, yet have so little trouble moving him once the season starter? His value didn't change one lick between August and September... but his TRADE value did. Why is that? Because TRADE VALUE is equal to PERCEIVED VALUE. Even in your instance, where you unloaded Anderson after two weeks... did you get value commenserate with a top-10 back in return for him?

I still contend that if you're going to draft a guy for the sole purpose of trading him, draft someone with a high PERCEIVED value, whether you agree with it or not.

 

[dlptown]

I think you also have to monitor swings- we do a redraft with defense and offense combined allowing for a lot of runs on positions. I tend to try and get value in the middle rounds by bucking the trend, particularly getting a #3 and #4 RB when others are grabbing #2 WR's. Solid safeties can also be had late and I tend to go with a QB around rounds 7 & 8. I have been successful with this strategy as I find that in a 12 team league depth at RB due to injury depletion and demotions/rbbc plays large in determing who wins.

 

[Family Matters]

Take the best player on the board, regardless of position, then make trades from your position of strength.

Another problem with this strategy is that the player's VALUE isn't important, it's his PERCEIVED value.To give a somewhat extreme example... let's go with Mike Anderson last offseason. Let's say you thought he was far and away a top-10 RB (and therefore had a value on par with a late first round selection). The other owners in your league disagreed, and so he slid to the 16th round, where you gleefully snatched him up. Good luck trying to shop him. Even if you're in a trade happy league, the fact that you got him in the 16th means the owners don't VALUE him higher than a 16th, and so they'll only trade you 16th-round value for him.

Now, let's say you think that Andre Johnson is a total turd last season, but he slips to the 16th (mostly because everyone's drunk and not paying attention). You have a choice between Anderson (stud) and Johnson (turd) in a trade-happy league. The smarter move would be to grab Johnson, since his PERCEIVED value was so much higher. Even if you think he's a turd, you could GET a lot more for him. For instance, you could ship him off for a 7th or 8th round player and probably get Mike Anderson thrown in for good measure.

Which brings me to my huge draft strategy. KNOW YOUR LEAGUE. KNOW COMMON OPINION. Disagree with it, absolutely, but KNOW it inside and out. You have to know who's going to go where. Also, keep track of how many players at each position each owner has.

An example. Let's say that you have the #2 rated defense as a 14th round prospect, but you know that the rest of your league is going to start looking at defenses in the 10th round. If the 12th round comes around and someone grabs the 1st rated defense, then it might not be a bad idea to "reach" and grab the #2 rated defense right them. Yes, you are grabbing it higher than you have it rated, but if your league really goes into a long run of defenses, then you actually didn't lose any ground in draft position (it's like you just held the 14th round of the draft 2 rounds early).

Okay, now an example to the opposite side. Let's say you have the #1 rated defense as a 10th round prospect, but know that the rest of your league never picks up defenses before the final 4 rounds of the draft. Well, in that case, ignore the fact that your board is saying that this defense is the best pick available, and let it slide to the 16th or something. You still pick up your defense, but the cost is a lot less.

That's a pretty basic summary of knowing common opinion... but knowing your league's needs can be a very powerful tool.

For instance, I draft in a league that has roster limits on the draft. Everyone MUST draft 4 QBs, 6 RBs, 6 WRs, 2 TEs, 2 PKs, and 2 Defs. If everyone else in your league has drafted 6 RBs by the 12th round, and you only have 4, you can ignore that position entirely until the final 2 rounds of the draft, since no one else can take an RB. The exact same players will be available then as are available now, so spend your time grabbing WRs, or QBs, or whatever. Paying attention to the number of players left in a tier and the needs of the teams drafting before your next pick also gives you a very good way of knowing if you can let a particular player slide without worrying about the league snatching up the entire tier (and thus forcing you to take a reduction in value with your next pick).

The entire goal behind working the draft as opposed to just drafting based on your board is a chess concept. Ever pick should do two things. It should benefit your team as much as possible... but it should also gain you a *TIME* advantage. The whole concept of Time in chess pertains to developing as much of your pieces as you can without compromising your position of strength. In a draft, it's much the same theory. You want to develop your roster as a whole as much as possible without sacrificing on value.

The theory behind gaining "Time" in a draft relies a lot on tiers. The later you can grab a player without dropping a tier, the more "time" advantage you gain. So if you grab a high 2nd-tier WR in the 3rd, and I grab a low 2nd-tier WR in the 6th, you may have gained more player value than I did on the deal, but I gained a ton of "time" on you.

A lot of emphasis is placed on quality of projections, and that is indeed a very important componant of the draft, but I guarantee you that if your projections are slightly better than mine, and my knowledge of you and the rest of the league is drastically better than your knowledge of me and the rest of the league, I will "beat" you in the draft 10 times out of 10. I will get more value than you do, and I will get it later than you do. As an example... let's say we're in a guppy league where everyone sluffs 2nd RBs until the 8th round. You go by your board and draft 5 top-24 RBs in the first 5 rounds. I go by my knowledge of the league, and snag myself a pair of top-12 RBs, but then fill out my roster by "reaching" on QBs and WRs who probably shouldn't be going until the 10th. The result? You're stacked at RB, but by the time to get around to QBs and WRs, you're left with scrubs and borderline starters. I'm stacked at RB (although not as deep), but have quality QBs, WRs, and TEs... and then when the rest of the league turns its attentions to RBs, I can quietly add a little bit of quality depth at a much better "time" value than you did, adding RBs of the same tier several rounds later than you got yours. To add insult to injury, I can then offer to trade some of my "scrub" players that I "reached" on for those studs you were drafting, and you'll be forced to accept, since you're entirely lacking that position. I mean, imagine the horror you would feel if you were loading up on RBs in the first 8 rounds while the rest of the league quietly drafted 36 QBs.

In short, don't neglect the human element of the draft. It's possibly the single most important aspect of all.

SSOG-awesome post. You did a great job of illustrating your point. I agree that knowing your opponets is very helpful. Using that knowledge is good sense. Now if you're drafting say WCOFF, then that won't be of much use but I too like to take what I know and apply it accordingly.Another aspect to what you said is to do what I call:

"Take what the draft will give you". Another similar saying is:

"Let the draft come to you."

This strategy can lead to some nice value picks. It might keep you from reaching for mid level players that you've targeted.

Another point that goes in hand with what you and I are saying is:

"Be flexible". It's been said many times but hard to do. IOW-don't lock yourself into a strategy that might no longer be applicable after round 2. That way when opportunity presents itself you can take advantage of it.

 

[Family Matters]

Take the best player on the board, regardless of position, then make trades from your position of strength.

Maybe my main redraft league is in the minority, but trades are a lot harder to come by. I can't count on the strategy of stockpiling talent at one position in hopes of trading it for eqaul value. It sounds good on paper, but rarely works out in the real life application (at least for me).As David said having opportunity is a big key.

As for actual drafting by position, for me my strategy is to be sure I have at least 1 (preferably 2) Stud Wide Recievers. For a longtime I was a RB RB RB guy. Problem is I was always scrambling for WR talent, waiting till 5 mins before gametime to figure out which scrub to start at WR. It usually became a game of which so-so WRs do I start this week Stallworth or maybe Lee Evans? Jerry Porter looks to have a good matchup. Sure you can win that way, but it is also a recipe for a lot of tough losses. Now I like to go RB WR WR in my perfect draft (obvisouly each draft is different). I prefer to have guys like Fitzgerald and Harrison in the lineup every week and take my chances on figuring out who to start at RB #2 with my stock pile of flyers and also rans each week.

PS: QB by committee 4evah!

Great point about trades. Obviously this is a risk with that strategy. I would prefer to control my destiny by fillinf my needs. Perhaps a trade down (if allowed) would be a better option in this scenario.As for the stud RB v WR theory, sounds like you're in the same boat either way. Which RB2 to start versus which WR 2-3 to start. My experience has been that it's a little easier to find a WR2-3 later in the draft than a RB2. So now you've got me wondering about why it's working better this way. Can you elaborate or have you found a good system for finding mid-round RB's that's working? Any insight would be greatly appreciated.

FM, do me a quick favor and go look at the Championship game lineups in your most competitve league your in. Tell me who they had going at RB and WR. The 2 Teams (mine included) that played in the Championship of my 12 Team League last season Started 4 of the top 6 scoring WR in the League (Smith, Holt, Fitz, Harrison). But the teams combine to have only 1 RB in the top 10. The year before the final pitted 4 of the Top 9 Wideouts but only 2 of the top 10 RBs.

On the other hand, how many of those top-10 WRs were taken in the first 3 rounds?The reason why championship teams have more top-10 WRs than top-10 RBs is because you're more likely to grab a WR late and have him become a stud, carrying your team to a championship since he was essentially a "free" pick in addition to your first 3.

Edit: In short, getting top-10 WRs doesn't give you a greater chance of making it to the FF Championship... getting top-10 WRs in the 6th round or later does. Go ahead and look at how many teams drafted 2 WRs in the first 3 rounds and made the championship sometime.

In thinking about this some I would think that the reason you don't have top 10 RB's and you do have top 10 WR's is based on your projections and drafting philosophy. IOW-if you missed on your RB projections but hit on your WR projections then you are more likely to have top WR's versus RB's. Also, if you believe in top WR as you strategy then you are more likey to wait on RB's and go for WR's. Based on what I've seen over the years, the stud RB philosophy wins over the stud WR philosophy more often than not. It doesn't mean it can't work it just hasn't worked as well.

 

[Family Matters]

My strategy is to look for an AUCTION format....

The draft is dead.

For the record, I have never been in an auction or IDP. I haven't had any desire so far.

 

[Musesboy]

I don't go into any draft with a strategy that isn't flexible. Of the four redraft leagues I won last year, I started with the following six picks in each draft:

RB/QB/WR/WR/WR/RB

RB/RB/TE/WR/WR/QB

RB/RB/RB/QB/WR/WR

RB/WR/WR/RB/RB/WR

I don't use any applications or VBD, at least not intentionally. But I imagine that my thought processes takes those kinds of calculations into account.

The first two rounds are important, so I like at least one RB and two players with proven track records and a history of good productivity if possible. I don't like taking early risks. There is a time to gamble and it is not in the first two rounds. At least not for me.

Scoring is important of course, and any successful strategy must take that into account.

In a league with known opponents, I want to remember their tendencies and preferences. I may target one as my most dangerous divisional opponent and the biggest obstacle in the way of me making the playoffs. In those situations I will sometimes draft with those two divisional meetings in mind. So I wouldn't want my first few picks to be on a bye in those two weeks unless it meant dropping a tier to avoid it.

If two RBs are in the same tier, I would consider drafting the one with the best backup. I like to handcuff RBs that play on a potent offense, but only if they have a clear backup with reasonable to good talent.

I sometimes lock up a QB early, but whether I do that or wait, I want my second QB before most of the other owners. There are not 24 starting QBs that I trust and so I want two that I think will start all year if healthy. I don't want a guy that will only cover my QBs bye week, I want a second starter as cover.

Team defense is an area where I feel the waiver wire can be used effectively to target teams with weak OLs, so I don't rush to take a defense early. A kicker is often a last round pick unless I am handcuffing another position and know that the handcuff will be there in the last round.

Draft position plays a part of course. If I am picking near the bottom of a round, I will calculate the likely positions that the teams picking after me will target and adjust accordingly. But that's obvious I guess.

I try to spread the bye weeks and don't ever plan to throw a game by taking players on the same bye. I like TE, PK and DT to be on different byes to make it easier to cover them with waiver wire pickups.

Guys with a long injury history scare me until later in the draft. Players with a season or less to their name are also targeted after I have filled out my starters unless it is a rookie RB in a favorable situation. I rarely touch rookies at positions other than RB.

I use ADP, mock drafts and opponent knowledge to determine when to target certain players. Especially sleepers.

There are many ways to win. I try not to lose with two risky picks in the first three rounds.

Value usually presents itself. Particularly at WR where many owners are wary of players in their 30s.

Dynasty drafting is totally different. One position I feel is undervalued is QB. Waiting several rounds is not my preferred strategy if I can get a guy with 5+ years left that has the starting job locked up. So many QBBC candidates are gone within a couple of years.

 

[Family Matters]

Involved question, so I'll try to condense it.

Play the odds

Odds are you will find more WR/QB bargains found later than RB bargains. Not saying eschew all WRs/QBs until round 6, but when in doubt, err on the side of the odds. It all depends on who is available when you pick, but your fleet of WRs is one that will be the least understood by EVERYONE post draft. The guy getting kudos for his fleet of WRs in August is the same guy adding 2 new WRs every week hoping he gets a starter the rest of the year.

You have to do a bit of research to know what the "odds" are on certain topics.

Assume your league mates are smart

All too often you will consider yourself so clever about certain players and value and fail to understand that the other people in your league are clever too. You aren't the only guy in the league who thinks Darrell Jackson is a huge steal at his current ADP. ADP is a general tool to get an IDEA where players are going, but all bets are off when that clocks start.

You have to take bigger risks in a competitive league, because all the undervalued players aren't gonna fall to you. You have to be willing to pounce on a player you really are sold on.

Don't be afraid to trust the 'ole gut .

Sometimes, stats are no substitute for the gut feeling, especially once you get into later round players who all look remarkably similar. Close the excel spreadsheets and five open windows to pro-football-reference.com... There's isn't a magic stat lurking out there that will help you decide between Josh Reed and Scotty Vines.

Thanks for reminding us to trust our instincts. You have to do that. This may be the most difficult aspect to capture and put into words. But it can be the difference between winning the championship and just making the playoffs.As think about it I realize that anything you do well you do so because you are fundamentaly sound and prepared. Fantasy football is no different. And like anything else after all the preparedness, your instincts kick in when they have to.

 

[Musesboy]

Also, don't cop out. If your rankings put a player much higher than the consensus, don't be a wimp and think what will happen if you are wrong. Take the guy. You may be able to trade down and get an extra pick, but don't fall into line with the sheep and change your mind. Win or lose according to what you really think. It's much more fun that way.

If you win the league, it's you that won it rather than some "expert".

 

[Family Matters]

Also, don't cop out. If your rankings put a player much higher than the consensus, don't be a wimp and think what will happen if you are wrong. Take the guy. You may be able to trade down and get an extra pick, but don't fall into line with the sheep and change your mind. Win or lose according to what you really think. It's much more fun that way.

If you win the league, it's you that won it rather than some "expert".

Could be the reason you rank a guy higher than the consensus is what seperates you from the field. I agree with what you're saying, stick to your guns.I will say this however, if you have someone ranked higher than the rest and you can get him later then consider trying to do so. But if you feel this player "might" not be around then take him now. Waiting can be costly.

Another thought, just because you are taking a guy 10 picks sooner than his ADP don't let that stop you if it's the guy you want. I hear guys talk about value and that's fine but don't be afreaid to take that player even if you lose the so called value. You can't help your draft position but you can help who ends up on your team.

At the end of the day what I care about most is having a chance to win regardless of where the players were drafted. Don't let the thought of value keep you from success.

 

[Ruffrodys05]

I draft value..........I play value ...............I live value...........enuff said.

Ruffrodys

edit: It's as simple as that!

 

[Family Matters]

I draft value..........I play value ...............I live value...........enuff said.

Ruffrodys

edit: It's as simple as that!

Can you simplify that? Just kidding. Seriously though, it might be that simple to you but how would you teach someone what works for you? If you don't mind sharing.

 

[Musesboy]

Also, don't cop out. If your rankings put a player much higher than the consensus, don't be a wimp and think what will happen if you are wrong. Take the guy. You may be able to trade down and get an extra pick, but don't fall into line with the sheep and change your mind. Win or lose according to what you really think. It's much more fun that way.

If you win the league, it's you that won it rather than some "expert".

I will say this however, if you have someone ranked higher than the rest and you can get him later then consider trying to do so. But if you feel this player "might" not be around then take him now. Waiting can be costly.

This is one of the toughest things to judge in any draft. You can never know everything that is in the minds of the other owners. ADPs and mocks help judgement, but there are no guarantees.But I do believe in making my own calls. Whether it is drafting, trading or weekly lineups, I'll go with what I think. I will be wrong of course. I have never compared my decisions to any sites rankings, but the whole point for me is to win or lose based on what I think rather than what someone else thinks.

 

[jurb26]

Which is why you wait 2 weeks into the season and trade him then... exactly like I did last year. I don't exactly agree with what your saying here though. If you use Anderson as the example, then the reason that most did not value him as anything higher than a 16th rounder is because they were not convinced that he was starting. Actually they were totally convinced otherwise and that Bell was starting. Preseason should have cleared all that up but even if your league is stuborn, like mine was, you still only have to wait a few weeks to get a return on your investment. Most guys should have been very able to trade Anderson before the year though.

Well, in that case, you have to go 2 or more weeks with a glaring deficiency at certain positions while waiting for your extra guys to prove their value.Either way, that doesn't disprove my point at all. Why couldn't you move him before the season, yet have so little trouble moving him once the season starter? His value didn't change one lick between August and September... but his TRADE value did. Why is that? Because TRADE VALUE is equal to PERCEIVED VALUE. Even in your instance, where you unloaded Anderson after two weeks... did you get value commenserate with a top-10 back in return for him?

I still contend that if you're going to draft a guy for the sole purpose of trading him, draft someone with a high PERCEIVED value, whether you agree with it or not.

Perceived value changes. You draft a guy like Anderson knowing that this will happen because you have information that the rest of your league either does not have or choose to ignore. Either way, my league was a rare one I would suspect. After the preseason it became blatently clear that Anderson was the starter and thus his perceived value skyrocketed creating real value for your selection. What I gave was a worst case, not best case. I used this vary strat to go on and dominate that particular league. I drafted 5 RBs in my top 6 picks only because they were the BPA. 2 of them were quickly traded. You have to know you league of course, but if you know that the rest of the guys are severly undervalueing players and that eventually they will "come around" or be hit in the face with reality then you roll those dice IMO. I drafted out of the 2 spot in that league and took all of the following RBs: SA, Rudi, Portis, Caddy, Duckett, Anderson. I in no way wanted to draft any of the RBs after Portis as that position was more than filled. The other guys wanted to try and force my hand with runs at WR and QB though (GB those guys whoe think they can control a draft at the swing!)_... well have at it fellas! I quickly parlayed Caddy and Anderson into trades for DJax and C.Johnson. Why, because their perceived value skyrocketed in a very short amount of time and because the rest of the league finally realized they missed the boat on those guys. I think you are severly missing the point that percieved value changes over time. You are acting like just because the rest of your league missed something that they will be so stuborn that they will not change their minds. Most drafts take place several weeks before the season startws and thus a lot of perceived values change. When I see the op to take a guy that I feel very strongly about raising his perceived value I take him.

 

[Ruffrodys05]

I draft value..........I play value ...............I live value...........enuff said.

Ruffrodys

edit: It's as simple as that!

Can you simplify that? Just kidding. Seriously though, it might be that simple to you but how would you teach someone what works for you? If you don't mind sharing.

Every league is different, in many different ways, IMO. I like to dominate every league, and FBG does that for me.

 

[the spanker]

Also, don't cop out. If your rankings put a player much higher than the consensus, don't be a wimp and think what will happen if you are wrong. Take the guy. You may be able to trade down and get an extra pick, but don't fall into line with the sheep and change your mind. Win or lose according to what you really think. It's much more fun that way.

If you win the league, it's you that won it rather than some "expert".

I will say this however, if you have someone ranked higher than the rest and you can get him later then consider trying to do so. But if you feel this player "might" not be around then take him now. Waiting can be costly.

This is one of the toughest things to judge in any draft. You can never know everything that is in the minds of the other owners. ADPs and mocks help judgement, but there are no guarantees.But I do believe in making my own calls. Whether it is drafting, trading or weekly lineups, I'll go with what I think. I will be wrong of course. I have never compared my decisions to any sites rankings, but the whole point for me is to win or lose based on what I think rather than what someone else thinks.

 

[the spanker]

Which is why you wait 2 weeks into the season and trade him then... exactly like I did last year.  I don't exactly agree with what your saying here though.  If you use Anderson as the example, then the reason that most did not value him as anything higher than a 16th rounder is because they were not convinced that he was starting.  Actually they were totally convinced otherwise and that Bell was starting.  Preseason should have cleared all that up but even if your league is stuborn, like mine was, you still only have to wait a few weeks to get a return on your investment.  Most guys should have been very able to trade Anderson before the year though.

Well, in that case, you have to go 2 or more weeks with a glaring deficiency at certain positions while waiting for your extra guys to prove their value.Either way, that doesn't disprove my point at all. Why couldn't you move him before the season, yet have so little trouble moving him once the season starter? His value didn't change one lick between August and September... but his TRADE value did. Why is that? Because TRADE VALUE is equal to PERCEIVED VALUE. Even in your instance, where you unloaded Anderson after two weeks... did you get value commenserate with a top-10 back in return for him?

I still contend that if you're going to draft a guy for the sole purpose of trading him, draft someone with a high PERCEIVED value, whether you agree with it or not.

Perceived value changes. You draft a guy like Anderson knowing that this will happen because you have information that the rest of your league either does not have or choose to ignore. Either way, my league was a rare one I would suspect. After the preseason it became blatently clear that Anderson was the starter and thus his perceived value skyrocketed creating real value for your selection. What I gave was a worst case, not best case. I used this vary strat to go on and dominate that particular league. I drafted 5 RBs in my top 6 picks only because they were the BPA. 2 of them were quickly traded. You have to know you league of course, but if you know that the rest of the guys are severly undervalueing players and that eventually they will "come around" or be hit in the face with reality then you roll those dice IMO. I drafted out of the 2 spot in that league and took all of the following RBs: SA, Rudi, Portis, Caddy, Duckett, Anderson. I in no way wanted to draft any of the RBs after Portis as that position was more than filled. The other guys wanted to try and force my hand with runs at WR and QB though (GB those guys whoe think they can control a draft at the swing!)_... well have at it fellas! I quickly parlayed Caddy and Anderson into trades for DJax and C.Johnson. Why, because their perceived value skyrocketed in a very short amount of time and because the rest of the league finally realized they missed the boat on those guys. I think you are severly missing the point that percieved value changes over time. You are acting like just because the rest of your league missed something that they will be so stuborn that they will not change their minds. Most drafts take place several weeks before the season startws and thus a lot of perceived values change. When I see the op to take a guy that I feel very strongly about raising his perceived value I take him.

Opps long time since I been on here but only wanted to say it depends on your league. I've been in league that trades are a rarity, because you still may not be compensated properly for perceived value.

 

[Musesboy]

Opps long time since I been on here but only wanted to say it depends on your league. I've been in league that trades are a rarity, because you still may not be compensated properly for perceived value.

 

[the spanker]

Opps long time since I been on here but only wanted to say it depends on your league.  I've been in league that trades are a rarity, because you still may not be compensated properly for perceived value.

 

[Bri]

Paramount for me is simply knowing whom others will take and planning around that. Like alot of people here I'll do a ton of mocks by the time a real draft comes up. I'll also look at a bunch of other drafts. Throw in all the cheatsheets and it can be quite predictable.

I'd guess I'm 90% accurate(if not higher) on whom will go in what round by late august. I don't think that's a bold statement and feel like there are many people here that feel similarly.

My planning around it is where I think I excel at drafting.

One thing that actually makes me angry is when someone(more or less) takes every 12th player on FBGs cheatsheet and puts no thought into it. It could certainly be a similarity after 5-7 rounds but when we're in round 15 and he's still getting em' like clockwork I think he's ...dopey.

I applaud people that take risks and take people early. I guess what I'm saying is this site is great and GB Joe and Dodds and Co but all their useful tools and cheatsheets and rankings and....have made many people lose their originality on draft day. Kudos to them, no fault here at all don't get me wrong. I do however think it's a prob in FF these days.

 

[Ruffrodys05]

I draft value..........I play value ...............I live value...........enuff said.

Ruffrodys

edit: It's as simple as that!

Can you simplify that? Just kidding. Seriously though, it might be that simple to you but how would you teach someone what works for you? If you don't mind sharing.

Every league is different, in many different ways, IMO. I like to dominate every league, and FBG does that for me.

I thought that is what I implied..........maybe I'm wrong.

 

[BassNBrew]

Which is why you wait 2 weeks into the season and trade him then... exactly like I did last year.  I don't exactly agree with what your saying here though.  If you use Anderson as the example, then the reason that most did not value him as anything higher than a 16th rounder is because they were not convinced that he was starting.  Actually they were totally convinced otherwise and that Bell was starting.  Preseason should have cleared all that up but even if your league is stuborn, like mine was, you still only have to wait a few weeks to get a return on your investment.  Most guys should have been very able to trade Anderson before the year though.

Well, in that case, you have to go 2 or more weeks with a glaring deficiency at certain positions while waiting for your extra guys to prove their value.Either way, that doesn't disprove my point at all. Why couldn't you move him before the season, yet have so little trouble moving him once the season starter? His value didn't change one lick between August and September... but his TRADE value did. Why is that? Because TRADE VALUE is equal to PERCEIVED VALUE. Even in your instance, where you unloaded Anderson after two weeks... did you get value commenserate with a top-10 back in return for him?

I still contend that if you're going to draft a guy for the sole purpose of trading him, draft someone with a high PERCEIVED value, whether you agree with it or not.

Perceived value changes. You draft a guy like Anderson knowing that this will happen because you have information that the rest of your league either does not have or choose to ignore. Either way, my league was a rare one I would suspect. After the preseason it became blatently clear that Anderson was the starter and thus his perceived value skyrocketed creating real value for your selection. What I gave was a worst case, not best case. I used this vary strat to go on and dominate that particular league. I drafted 5 RBs in my top 6 picks only because they were the BPA. 2 of them were quickly traded. You have to know you league of course, but if you know that the rest of the guys are severly undervalueing players and that eventually they will "come around" or be hit in the face with reality then you roll those dice IMO. I drafted out of the 2 spot in that league and took all of the following RBs: SA, Rudi, Portis, Caddy, Duckett, Anderson. I in no way wanted to draft any of the RBs after Portis as that position was more than filled. The other guys wanted to try and force my hand with runs at WR and QB though (GB those guys whoe think they can control a draft at the swing!)_... well have at it fellas! I quickly parlayed Caddy and Anderson into trades for DJax and C.Johnson. Why, because their perceived value skyrocketed in a very short amount of time and because the rest of the league finally realized they missed the boat on those guys. I think you are severly missing the point that percieved value changes over time. You are acting like just because the rest of your league missed something that they will be so stuborn that they will not change their minds. Most drafts take place several weeks before the season startws and thus a lot of perceived values change. When I see the op to take a guy that I feel very strongly about raising his perceived value I take him.

How many teams in this league? I didn't see Rudi or Portis fall past the middle, much less Caddy in the late 4th in any of my numerous drafts. That said, Duckett and Anderson didn't go that early.

 

[jurb26]

Which is why you wait 2 weeks into the season and trade him then... exactly like I did last year. I don't exactly agree with what your saying here though. If you use Anderson as the example, then the reason that most did not value him as anything higher than a 16th rounder is because they were not convinced that he was starting. Actually they were totally convinced otherwise and that Bell was starting. Preseason should have cleared all that up but even if your league is stuborn, like mine was, you still only have to wait a few weeks to get a return on your investment. Most guys should have been very able to trade Anderson before the year though.

Well, in that case, you have to go 2 or more weeks with a glaring deficiency at certain positions while waiting for your extra guys to prove their value.Either way, that doesn't disprove my point at all. Why couldn't you move him before the season, yet have so little trouble moving him once the season starter? His value didn't change one lick between August and September... but his TRADE value did. Why is that? Because TRADE VALUE is equal to PERCEIVED VALUE. Even in your instance, where you unloaded Anderson after two weeks... did you get value commenserate with a top-10 back in return for him?

I still contend that if you're going to draft a guy for the sole purpose of trading him, draft someone with a high PERCEIVED value, whether you agree with it or not.

Perceived value changes. You draft a guy like Anderson knowing that this will happen because you have information that the rest of your league either does not have or choose to ignore. Either way, my league was a rare one I would suspect. After the preseason it became blatently clear that Anderson was the starter and thus his perceived value skyrocketed creating real value for your selection. What I gave was a worst case, not best case. I used this vary strat to go on and dominate that particular league. I drafted 5 RBs in my top 6 picks only because they were the BPA. 2 of them were quickly traded. You have to know you league of course, but if you know that the rest of the guys are severly undervalueing players and that eventually they will "come around" or be hit in the face with reality then you roll those dice IMO. I drafted out of the 2 spot in that league and took all of the following RBs: SA, Rudi, Portis, Caddy, Duckett, Anderson. I in no way wanted to draft any of the RBs after Portis as that position was more than filled. The other guys wanted to try and force my hand with runs at WR and QB though (GB those guys whoe think they can control a draft at the swing!)_... well have at it fellas! I quickly parlayed Caddy and Anderson into trades for DJax and C.Johnson. Why, because their perceived value skyrocketed in a very short amount of time and because the rest of the league finally realized they missed the boat on those guys. I think you are severly missing the point that percieved value changes over time. You are acting like just because the rest of your league missed something that they will be so stuborn that they will not change their minds. Most drafts take place several weeks before the season startws and thus a lot of perceived values change. When I see the op to take a guy that I feel very strongly about raising his perceived value I take him.

How many teams in this league? I didn't see Rudi or Portis fall past the middle, much less Caddy in the late 4th in any of my numerous drafts. That said, Duckett and Anderson didn't go that early.

10 teams and the draft was fairly early in the year too. So people were very low on Caddy, Duckett and Anderson. I think they listened to the guys here at FBG too much in regards to Rudi and Portis.

 

[BassNBrew]

Which is why you wait 2 weeks into the season and trade him then... exactly like I did last year.  I don't exactly agree with what your saying here though.  If you use Anderson as the example, then the reason that most did not value him as anything higher than a 16th rounder is because they were not convinced that he was starting.  Actually they were totally convinced otherwise and that Bell was starting.  Preseason should have cleared all that up but even if your league is stuborn, like mine was, you still only have to wait a few weeks to get a return on your investment.  Most guys should have been very able to trade Anderson before the year though.

Well, in that case, you have to go 2 or more weeks with a glaring deficiency at certain positions while waiting for your extra guys to prove their value.Either way, that doesn't disprove my point at all. Why couldn't you move him before the season, yet have so little trouble moving him once the season starter? His value didn't change one lick between August and September... but his TRADE value did. Why is that? Because TRADE VALUE is equal to PERCEIVED VALUE. Even in your instance, where you unloaded Anderson after two weeks... did you get value commenserate with a top-10 back in return for him?

I still contend that if you're going to draft a guy for the sole purpose of trading him, draft someone with a high PERCEIVED value, whether you agree with it or not.

Perceived value changes. You draft a guy like Anderson knowing that this will happen because you have information that the rest of your league either does not have or choose to ignore. Either way, my league was a rare one I would suspect. After the preseason it became blatently clear that Anderson was the starter and thus his perceived value skyrocketed creating real value for your selection. What I gave was a worst case, not best case. I used this vary strat to go on and dominate that particular league. I drafted 5 RBs in my top 6 picks only because they were the BPA. 2 of them were quickly traded. You have to know you league of course, but if you know that the rest of the guys are severly undervalueing players and that eventually they will "come around" or be hit in the face with reality then you roll those dice IMO. I drafted out of the 2 spot in that league and took all of the following RBs: SA, Rudi, Portis, Caddy, Duckett, Anderson. I in no way wanted to draft any of the RBs after Portis as that position was more than filled. The other guys wanted to try and force my hand with runs at WR and QB though (GB those guys whoe think they can control a draft at the swing!)_... well have at it fellas! I quickly parlayed Caddy and Anderson into trades for DJax and C.Johnson. Why, because their perceived value skyrocketed in a very short amount of time and because the rest of the league finally realized they missed the boat on those guys. I think you are severly missing the point that percieved value changes over time. You are acting like just because the rest of your league missed something that they will be so stuborn that they will not change their minds. Most drafts take place several weeks before the season startws and thus a lot of perceived values change. When I see the op to take a guy that I feel very strongly about raising his perceived value I take him.

How many teams in this league? I didn't see Rudi or Portis fall past the middle, much less Caddy in the late 4th in any of my numerous drafts. That said, Duckett and Anderson didn't go that early.

10 teams and the draft was fairly early in the year too. So people were very low on Caddy, Duckett and Anderson. I think they listened to the guys here at FBG too much in regards to Rudi and Portis.

Well that explains a lot and brings things back into line. Just curious, don't you think you reached for Duckett and possibly MA based on ADP, especially considering your actual draft was lagging the ADP by a significant amount?

 

[the spanker]

Which is why you wait 2 weeks into the season and trade him then... exactly like I did last year.  I don't exactly agree with what your saying here though.  If you use Anderson as the example, then the reason that most did not value him as anything higher than a 16th rounder is because they were not convinced that he was starting.  Actually they were totally convinced otherwise and that Bell was starting.  Preseason should have cleared all that up but even if your league is stuborn, like mine was, you still only have to wait a few weeks to get a return on your investment.  Most guys should have been very able to trade Anderson before the year though.

Well, in that case, you have to go 2 or more weeks with a glaring deficiency at certain positions while waiting for your extra guys to prove their value.Either way, that doesn't disprove my point at all. Why couldn't you move him before the season, yet have so little trouble moving him once the season starter? His value didn't change one lick between August and September... but his TRADE value did. Why is that? Because TRADE VALUE is equal to PERCEIVED VALUE. Even in your instance, where you unloaded Anderson after two weeks... did you get value commenserate with a top-10 back in return for him?

I still contend that if you're going to draft a guy for the sole purpose of trading him, draft someone with a high PERCEIVED value, whether you agree with it or not.

Perceived value changes. You draft a guy like Anderson knowing that this will happen because you have information that the rest of your league either does not have or choose to ignore. Either way, my league was a rare one I would suspect. After the preseason it became blatently clear that Anderson was the starter and thus his perceived value skyrocketed creating real value for your selection. What I gave was a worst case, not best case. I used this vary strat to go on and dominate that particular league. I drafted 5 RBs in my top 6 picks only because they were the BPA. 2 of them were quickly traded. You have to know you league of course, but if you know that the rest of the guys are severly undervalueing players and that eventually they will "come around" or be hit in the face with reality then you roll those dice IMO. I drafted out of the 2 spot in that league and took all of the following RBs: SA, Rudi, Portis, Caddy, Duckett, Anderson. I in no way wanted to draft any of the RBs after Portis as that position was more than filled. The other guys wanted to try and force my hand with runs at WR and QB though (GB those guys whoe think they can control a draft at the swing!)_... well have at it fellas! I quickly parlayed Caddy and Anderson into trades for DJax and C.Johnson. Why, because their perceived value skyrocketed in a very short amount of time and because the rest of the league finally realized they missed the boat on those guys. I think you are severly missing the point that percieved value changes over time. You are acting like just because the rest of your league missed something that they will be so stuborn that they will not change their minds. Most drafts take place several weeks before the season startws and thus a lot of perceived values change. When I see the op to take a guy that I feel very strongly about raising his perceived value I take him.

Opps long time since I been on here but only wanted to say it depends on your league. I've been in league that trades are a rarity, because you still may not be compensated properly for perceived value.

OK I feel like I'm back in the saddle here. Been months since I've read anything and even longer since I've posted since usually I like to sit and digest all of the great info.In my draft last year, I used the RB draft strategy, not because it was my plan, but because of the players on the board. I had the 5th pick in a 12 man league and drafted McCallister, Westbrook, and McGahee in the third. In the fourth and fifth rounds I picked up Horn and Djax. I thought I had gotten excellent value in all rounds. Well you know the story, all of my picks were decimated by injuries, my WRs were hit first. When I tried to trade McGahee I couldn't get fair compensation for him.

To make a long story short this year I'm going to draft the best players on the board in the beginning rounds and not necessarily draft RBs. In my league its so difficult to get a fair trade through and I always seem to have an abundance of RBs but struggle to find good WRs. My league is a ppr league BTW.