Zyphros said:
My winner last week had 4 people under the 5% mark. Winston (4.4%), Shepard (.9%), OJ Howard (2.8%), Vikings (3.5%). Winston and Shepard being the only 2 of those that actually blew up. There's definitely truth to that. I don't think Gallman is as chalk as you're suggesting though.
One of the pods said they had him projected at 25-30% ownership. Hard pass on that in gpps for me if that's the case.
I think your example above seems to point to what I have problems with - it seems kind of hard to get low ownership on anything decent at RB, and I think TE is that way this week too. Seems like most of the low % plays are at WR, but I do have a few others written down.
I have been sucking lately, so I am switching it up a little this week. For cash I am entering in $6-8 and doing half 50/50s and 1/2 3 and 5man contests for a little fun. For gpps I am putting most in one of the small 25cent contests that has 2378 entries, then I am taking a shot at the bigger 25cent gpps with a few. So maybe something like $11 total - $8 in "cash", $2 in the small gpp, $1 in the big gpp. For the small gpp, I am going to TRY to stick to just teams that have higher implied team totals or at least 8 of the positions. In the bigger gpp, I might get a tad more weird, but we will see.
What I have written down for lower owned plays to look at in gpps:
QB: Goff, Ryan, Brady Don't think I am getting too weird at QB. These guys + Mahomes, Wilson, and maybe Stafford will probably make up the bulk of my rosters.
RB: Ingram, McCoy, White/Burkhead ……. My weird play after looking at the OL/DL matchups is J.Jacobs in the rare event that Oak can keep it close.
TE: About the only thing I saw on the volume list was D.Walker, but might only use him if I do an Atl stack.
DT: Looking at sack rates, I wrote down Indy, AZ, Jax, Car, Clev, MIn I love cheap Ds, so I keep staring at Clev and Car.
WR: Here is where I am going to try to do most of the pivots. In the high scoring team totals, I wrote down: Cooks, M.Brown, Fuller, Hardman, Metcalf, TB WRs, Woods, NE wrs. On lower scoring teams I wrote down: OBJ/Landry, Car Wrs, A.Rob, J.Brown/Beasley, Denv. WRs.
I think a lot of the focus will be on Seattle/AZ, Wash/NYG, KC/Det, so pivot game stacks I like and I am staring at:
TB/Rams -- I think I am going to be doing a lot of Goff/2WRs + 1TB WR cores.
Balt/Clev - I think Jackson/Brown + OBJ could be fun.
Atl/Ten - Ryan/Julio/Ridley + D.Walker
Car/Houst - Watson/Fuller + McCaffrey or Samuel
and I think I will have 1 of: Brady/White/Edelman or Gordon + J.Brown