[DYNASTY] 2012 Top 24 Rookies (1 Viewer)

[cstu]

What recent NFL backs would you compare Lamar Miller's running style and talent to? I can't place him, maybe Fred Jackson style wise?

It's probably because of the school, but I've seen more than a few comparisons made to Portis.

I think that's a fair comparison, but Miller lacks the fierceness when he runs that Portis had. He reminds me of a less elusive Reggie Bush but a better inside runner.

Portis was an absolute beast, even though he wasn't the biggest guy.

Portis is the EXACT comparison that comes to mind when I watch them in college. Portis didn't display this "fierceness" you are talking about until he went to Wash and had to reformulate his running style to fin the offense. Miller is a lot like Portis. He has great feet, picks through traffic to find the hole in the same fashion and runs with great balance and burst.

Check out
. Maybe it's just that he runs upright but there's something about Miller's style that I don't like.

 

[beto]

Isaiah Pead looks like he might belong in the top 24. Very nice jump cuts from him.

 

[Patoons]

Isaiah Pead looks like he might belong in the top 24. Very nice jump cuts from him.

Agreed; think he's being underrated across the board. Should be a nice comp back.

 

[EBF]

Of the guys listed there are at least 4 that would be completely of limits to almost any trade offer let alone an offer for an unknown and nonelite prospect like Blackmon. Those guys would be; Rogers, Stafford, Newton and Ryan. They are far too young and are already at or near the top of their player category to move with out it being a blockbuster deal. The only ones I would probably realistically look to trade would be Romo, E. Manning and Vick. Although I would move these guys, I would clearly expect more than the likes of Blackmon in the deal. In between guys that would probably be difficult to decide on would be Brees, Brady and Rivers. I find it hard to believe that Brady and Brees don't each have at least 1 more top 5 season in them. Maybe the odds aren't good for 2 more, but I certainly think it's a possibility. Rivers is probably the toughest one of the group because he is coming off a a really bad year, by his standards. Even that bad year was a top 10 season, which is why I'm asking the question at the beginning of my post. I find it hard to believe that Rivers won't continue on to produce at least 3 more top 10 seasons but I'm not sure if he will have any top 5. So, how much are those top 10 seasons worth? Personally, I think they are worth far more than Blackmon but if this was AJ Green coming out or Fitz (guys I truly saw as elite prospects) then I might do it.

I think you're a little off on Blackmon. You might not view him as an elite WR prospect, but it seems that most people do. I've been unable to trade for him in the leagues where I don't have him. His value is very, very high right now. You keep insisting that he's not an elite prospect, but that doesn't jive with reality. He's going to be a top 5 pick and deservedly so. I think he's one of the top 2-3 WR prospects to come out in the last several drafts. I agree with cstu about his trade value relative to the elite QBs. I don't think you'll be able to move a player like Brady or Ryan for the value that Blackmon will command. Blackmon is already being treated like a top 10 dynasty WR. Given his age, he will be very hard to pry away from people in PPR dynasty.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Isaiah Pead looks like he might belong in the top 24. Very nice jump cuts from him.

Agreed; think he's being underrated across the board. Should be a nice comp back.

Perhaps; but personally, when drafting players in the first 2 rounds I'm hoping to draft more than a complementary player. On a somewhat related note, is anyone else intrigued with Bryce Brown for this year's draft? There's tonnes of reasons for apprehension, with perhaps the biggest two being he has only 3 carries over the last 2 seasons, and the fact that he left Kansas State this year and the reason for that is still unknown. What's interesting to me is that he's gone to IMG academies along with a bunch of other high profile prospects to prepare for the combine. If Brown shows up at the combine in football shape and has a good performance, I could see him being drafted in one of the late rounds; and for our purposes, he'll probably have more starting RB1 upside than the other late round backs.

 

[EBF]

Maybe so, but all the signs seem to point to him being another recruiting bust ala Darrell Scott or (to a lesser extent) Terrelle Pryor. Sometimes these guys just aren't that talented. Brown never looked special in college. He's a star in his own mind only.

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Maybe so, but all the signs seem to point to him being another recruiting bust ala Darrell Scott or (to a lesser extent) Terrelle Pryor. Sometimes these guys just aren't that talented. Brown never looked special in college. He's a star in his own mind only.

Neither Scott or Brown have enough carries to conclude they'll definitely be busts in the NFL imo. Brown only has 104 carries in his entire NCAA career, and 101 of those were in his freshman season where he actually looked pretty good imo. He showed great catching ability, good power, was able to stick his foot in the ground and change direction pretty well. As for Scott, I haven't seen any USF games and there's no highlights of him on youtube, but his stats are actually pretty decent for this past season. His stats were definitely ####ty in his first 2 seasons, but again that was only on 110 carries, which isn't really very many. To conclude, I'm not ready to give up on either of those guys. In the late rounds I'd personally rather take a shot on a player like them who have a chance of being a RB1 over a safer pick on a RB who has complementary upside. The combine will be very important for both of them, should be interesting regardless.

 

[EBF]

I agree with all that. I'm just saying, the fact that these guys were 5 star recruits is nothing but a distant memory. They were hyped as the best players in their recruiting classes. If that were really the case, they would be first round picks.

 

[Whitney26]

Neither Scott or Brown have enough carries to conclude they'll definitely be busts in the NFL imo. Brown only has 104 carries in his entire NCAA career, and 101 of those were in his freshman season where he actually looked pretty good imo. He showed great catching ability, good power, was able to stick his foot in the ground and change direction pretty well.

I found a nice video of Darrell Scott playing against West Virginia this season.

For a man his size, he actually has pretty good feet. He dances a little more than I like, but he certainly has some potential.

There are also some other game videos of lesser known prospects (Turbin, Page, Pierce, Quick, Brazill, Rainey) on his channel. Very well done.

 

[jdswan922]

Scott seems to have good speed for his size, but he seems to be in slow motion at times when he changes directions. Still, and interesting guy to follow for the later rounds.

 

[BigTex]

My favorite thread, keep up the great work!!!

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Boise State RB Doug Martin measured 5-foot-9 and 219 pounds at Monday's Senior Bowl weigh-in.He's 11 pounds heavier than his listed college weight, and Martin reportedly had the most impressive build of any Senior Bowl running back. There are increasing rumblings that Martin is commonly ranked as a top-three back on most NFL draft boards. He projects as no worse than a second-round pick.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I've been calling Martin my #2 RB for quite a while now. For awhile, seemed like only EBF agreed!

 

[EBF]

Boise State RB Doug Martin measured 5-foot-9 and 219 pounds at Monday's Senior Bowl weigh-in.He's 11 pounds heavier than his listed college weight, and Martin reportedly had the most impressive build of any Senior Bowl running back. There are increasing rumblings that Martin is commonly ranked as a top-three back on most NFL draft boards. He projects as no worse than a second-round pick.

 

[eakfootball]

It's going to be fun to see who wins the battle for number 2 running back taken between Miller, Martin, and Wilson.

Miller has a lot of potential and good burst, but I question his power, and whether or not he can run between the tackles. I see him maybe as a Felix Jones type.

Martin will get what's blocked plus a little more, but doesn't have the upside of the other two. All in all he will likely be my number 2 back (NFL wise, not for fantasy) because he doesn't have many weaknesses, and is a safer pick. In the right system Martin could thrive as an every down back. He reminds me of Donald Brown coming out, but I think he will have a better career than Brown.

David Wilson has great burst, and good power for a speed guy, and will have runs that make people just saw WOW.

Yet I question how his skills will transfer to the NFL. I don't

see him making the cuts that are needed for a NFL running back. In watching Wilson twice I have seen him take of running backwards when a defender got through the line, and end up 20+ yards past the line of scrimmage. Those 2 runs really made me question his decision making. On one run he broke a good amount of tackles, and had a 15 yard run (even though he covered 126 yards). On the other one he was caught for a loss of 24 yards. You just can't do that in the NFL. Yes Wilson has great pick play ability, but he needs to be used correctley. If he is drafted, and put into the right role, where he gets the ball in space, and catches passes, gets draws, and has toss sweeps, and stretch plays, designed for him, Wilson could be electric. He is clearly not an every down back though, and should only be given 8-10 touches a game. In the right situation he will be great, but if a team wants him to be their lead back they will be dissapointed.

Chris Polk is another runner, who similar to Doug Martin will get what's blocked, but not too much more. I like Martins talent and upside more though. Polk seems like more of a high end backup running back to me, who will have a solid game if needed to take over the lead role, but teams could probably do better as their starter.

 

[Synesthesia]

Why only look at top 5 finishes?

Because Shutout specifically said that he could see Brady putting up another 4-5 top-5 finishes.More broadly, I could see changing the metric slightly (top 3 seasons, top 6 seasons), but I don't like the idea of moving the goalposts all the way out to top-10 seasons. A 10th place fantasy finish in a 1QB league simply is not a valuable commodity. It's akin to a 20th place finish at RB, or a 30th place finish at WR. QBs tend to fall into one of three buckets- difference makers, guys who leave you at a substantial disadvantage against the difference makers but who otherwise won't get you killed, and guys who have no business seeing your starting lineup. The problem for guys in that second bucket is that that bucket typically contains 12+ names a year all by itself. For instance, this year the difference between Cam Newton (QB5) and Philip Rivers (QB9) was greater than the difference between Philip Rivers (QB9) and Matt Hasselbeck (QB19). If you don't have a Philip Rivers, a reasonable facsimile of his production can be obtained for pennies (witness: Mark Sanchez, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Alex Smith, Carson Palmer). If you don't have a top-5 stud, though, there's no way you're going to get a reasonable facsimile without a very serious expenditure of resources. Guys like Brees and Brady are valuable not because they're locks for a ton of top-10 finishes, but because they're capable of putting up true difference-maker seasons.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Martin will get what's blocked and a little more? Don't agree with that at all. He's one of the most elusive runners in this class.

 

[J-Dawg]

Is anybody else feeling like people are already overrating Kendall Wright? I love him as a prospect but there's been posts recently saying that he's a top 5 pick and constantly throwing out the Steve Smith comparisons. Don't get me wrong, I love Wright as a prospect but there's no way that I'd take him over some of the guys people are saying he's better than, I strongly disagree that he's a better prospect than the likes of RG3 or Floyd. I also don't see the Smith comparison at all, he's not nearly as physical as Smith is. The only thing they have in common is their size but I don't see Steve Smith. I see Santonio Holmes without the maturity issues, still a productive and talented receiver but not a lock solid stud in his prime. I may eventually rank Wright as a top 5 prospect for rookie drafts once we know where he's playing but I think it's way too early to start annointing him as such this early.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

As someone who has the 1.11 in one dynasty, I'm loving that there are 2 QB prospects that absolutely will get taken before that pick in the 1st. Last year, 1st round QB's like Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, and early 2nd rounder Dalton all fell to around the 3rd round in rookie drafts, and even Newton usually went in the 2nd. This year, at least two great skill-position prospects will slide down further than they should because of Luck and Griffin. I love it. I'm actually excited to have a late 1st to play with for once.

 

[Whitney26]

Is anybody else feeling like people are already overrating Kendall Wright? I love him as a prospect but there's been posts recently saying that he's a top 5 pick and constantly throwing out the Steve Smith comparisons. Don't get me wrong, I love Wright as a prospect but there's no way that I'd take him over some of the guys people are saying he's better than, I strongly disagree that he's a better prospect than the likes of RG3 or Floyd. I also don't see the Smith comparison at all, he's not nearly as physical as Smith is. The only thing they have in common is their size but I don't see Steve Smith. I see Santonio Holmes without the maturity issues, still a productive and talented receiver but not a lock solid stud in his prime. I may eventually rank Wright as a top 5 prospect for rookie drafts once we know where he's playing but I think it's way too early to start annointing him as such this early.

He probably is in some circles. In others, I don't think he's getting enough attention. I agree with your thoughts on the comparison to Smith. I'm not sure....seems like a cross between Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. In the end, I'll be surprised if he isn't a top 20 pick.I was watching his game film vs TCU tonight. If you get the chance, take a look. At the 3:20 mark, he throws an amazing pass to RGIII. http://www.youtube.com/embed/2QfBl4usNAE He's obviously a gifted athlete. He triple jumped 51 feet in HS to win the state championship and played basketball as a freshman once football was over.

 

[cstu]

Is anybody else feeling like people are already overrating Kendall Wright? I love him as a prospect but there's been posts recently saying that he's a top 5 pick and constantly throwing out the Steve Smith comparisons. Don't get me wrong, I love Wright as a prospect but there's no way that I'd take him over some of the guys people are saying he's better than, I strongly disagree that he's a better prospect than the likes of RG3 or Floyd. I also don't see the Smith comparison at all, he's not nearly as physical as Smith is. The only thing they have in common is their size but I don't see Steve Smith. I see Santonio Holmes without the maturity issues, still a productive and talented receiver but not a lock solid stud in his prime. I may eventually rank Wright as a top 5 prospect for rookie drafts once we know where he's playing but I think it's way too early to start annointing him as such this early.

He probably is in some circles. In others, I don't think he's getting enough attention. I agree with your thoughts on the comparison to Smith. I'm not sure....seems like a cross between Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. In the end, I'll be surprised if he isn't a top 20 pick.I was watching his game film vs TCU tonight. If you get the chance, take a look. At the 3:20 mark, he throws an amazing pass to RGIII. http://www.youtube.com/embed/2QfBl4usNAE He's obviously a gifted athlete. He triple jumped 51 feet in HS to win the state championship and played basketball as a freshman once football was over.

I think he's going to be a good NFL WR but the Steve Smith comparisons are too much. SS is the gold standard of smaller WR's and no one else his size plays as physical as he does. Mike Wallace is taller and Antonio Brown is slower. I think Santana Moss and Santonio Holmes are fair comparisons.

 

[cstu]

As someone who has the 1.11 in one dynasty, I'm loving that there are 2 QB prospects that absolutely will get taken before that pick in the 1st. Last year, 1st round QB's like Locker, Gabbert, Ponder, and early 2nd rounder Dalton all fell to around the 3rd round in rookie drafts, and even Newton usually went in the 2nd. This year, at least two great skill-position prospects will slide down further than they should because of Luck and Griffin. I love it. I'm actually excited to have a late 1st to play with for once.

I don't need a QB, so I'm thrilled as well. With all the underclassmen the draft is one of the most solid I've seen through the top 12.

 

[J-Dawg]

Mike Mayock released his top 5 positional rankings today. I'll just list the skill positions since the others don't apply to the conversation in here.

Quarterbacks

1. Andrew Luck*, Stanford

2. Robert Griffin III*, Baylor

3. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M

4-5. Open to competition.

Running Backs

1. Trent Richardson*, Alabama

2. David Wilson*, Virginia Tech

3. Lamar Miller*, Miami

4. Doug Martin, Boise State

5. LaMichael James*, Oregon

Wide Receivers

1. Justin Blackmon*, Oklahoma State

2. Michael Floyd, Notre Dame

3. Kendall Wright, Baylor

4. Alshon Jeffery*, South Carolina

5. Chris Givens*, Wake Forest

Tight Ends

1. Dwayne Allen*, Clemson

2. Coby Fleener, Stanford

3. Orson Charles*, Georgia

4. Ladarius Green, Louisiana-Lafayette

5. Michael Egnew, Missouri

http://rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/39725/60/draft-2012-mayocks-top-fives

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Mike Mayock released his top 5 positional rankings today. I'll just list the skill positions since the others don't apply to the conversation in here.

Quarterbacks

1. Andrew Luck*, Stanford

2. Robert Griffin III*, Baylor

3. Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M

4-5. Open to competition.

Running Backs

1. Trent Richardson*, Alabama

2. David Wilson*, Virginia Tech

3. Lamar Miller*, Miami

4. Doug Martin, Boise State

5. LaMichael James*, Oregon

Wide Receivers

1. Justin Blackmon*, Oklahoma State

2. Michael Floyd, Notre Dame

3. Kendall Wright, Baylor

4. Alshon Jeffery*, South Carolina

5. Chris Givens*, Wake Forest

Tight Ends

1. Dwayne Allen*, Clemson

2. Coby Fleener, Stanford

3. Orson Charles*, Georgia

4. Ladarius Green, Louisiana-Lafayette

5. Michael Egnew, Missouri

http://rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/39725/60/draft-2012-mayocks-top-fives

I would think that Kirk Cousins has to be #4 QB.

 

[BigTex]

I've been calling Martin my #2 RB for quite a while now. For awhile, seemed like only EBF agreed!

The "search" function says otherwise.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

I've been calling Martin my #2 RB for quite a while now. For awhile, seemed like only EBF agreed!

The "search" function says otherwise.

The "search" function says that EBF wasn't the only one? I must have missed it at the time. Its certainly not a bad thing.

 

[noneother]

Big Martin fan here. Drafted him August 2010. Hoping it works out for him.

 

[ZWK]

One thing I'm not sure about is how to factor in Martin's age. Martin was a 5th year senior at Boise State, while most of the other top backs (Richardson, Miller, Wilson, James, Pierce) were in their 3rd year in college (either true juniors or redshirt sophomores). So if Martin looks like a more polished, more complete running back, how much of that is just because he had an extra two years to develop?

Also, does anyone know exactly how old Martin is? I couldn't find his date of birth anywhere.

David Wilson: 6/15/1991

Bernard Pierce: 5/10/1991

Lamar Miller: 1991

Trent Richardson: 7/10/1990

Chris Polk: 12/16/1989

LaMichael James: 10/22/1989

Doug Martin: ????

 

[Whitney26]

One thing I'm not sure about is how to factor in Martin's age. Martin was a 5th year senior at Boise State, while most of the other top backs (Richardson, Miller, Wilson, James, Pierce) were in their 3rd year in college (either true juniors or redshirt sophomores). So if Martin looks like a more polished, more complete running back, how much of that is just because he had an extra two years to develop?Also, does anyone know exactly how old Martin is? I couldn't find his date of birth anywhere.David Wilson: 6/15/1991Bernard Pierce: 5/10/1991Lamar Miller: 1991Trent Richardson: 7/10/1990Chris Polk: 12/16/1989LaMichael James: 10/22/1989Doug Martin: ????

Birthday is 1-13-89....just turned 23.

 

[Xue]

I don't love this year's third tier, though that could change in the coming months if I find more sleepers that I like. I get the Taylor Price/Brian Robiskie vibe with a lot of these receivers. Like you know they're going to be pretty high picks, but you also pretty much know they're not going to be standout NFL players. Quick didn't do much for me in the clips I saw. I would rather have guys like AJ Jenkins and Ryan Broyles, even though neither of them made the current list either. I think Quick is overrated, but I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Quick at the very worst should be right there with Gerell Robinson. They're both similar in size and the way the move. Worse case scenario with both is Marques Colston.Jenkins is a Steve Breaston/Nate Burleson type. Broyles = Eddie Royal.Tommy Streeter is closer to Stephen Williams than Brian Quick is. Much slighter build. Another comparison is Danario Alexander.Two guys that may sneak into your rankings is LaVon Brazill and B.J. Cunningham. Also where's T.Y. Hilton? Might be this year's Randall Cobb.Anyway, this year seems deep in WR, similarly talented guys bunched up together. The landing spots might make or break some guys.

I think Hilton is a lesser version of Jerrel Jernigan. Talented, but too small to play outside. Disagree on Quick. Robinson is more solid and agile. Quick is a giraffe.

Quick and Robinson measured within 3/8" and 1 lb of each other. As I said before, they are both similar in size.

 

[cstu]

One thing I'm not sure about is how to factor in Martin's age. Martin was a 5th year senior at Boise State, while most of the other top backs (Richardson, Miller, Wilson, James, Pierce) were in their 3rd year in college (either true juniors or redshirt sophomores). So if Martin looks like a more polished, more complete running back, how much of that is just because he had an extra two years to develop?Also, does anyone know exactly how old Martin is? I couldn't find his date of birth anywhere.David Wilson: 6/15/1991Bernard Pierce: 5/10/1991Lamar Miller: 1991Trent Richardson: 7/10/1990Chris Polk: 12/16/1989LaMichael James: 10/22/1989Doug Martin: ????

Birthday is 1-13-89....just turned 23.

I don't see his age as an issue at all. Age is concern when it's a player who I think is either not an elite talent or has flaws in his game. Shonn Greene (24 yo rookie) was a guy who I thought had limited potential especially when considering his age, but Chris Johnson (23 yo rookie) was someone I was less worried about. Martin isn't an elite talent like CJ but he seems NFL-ready and I expect him to have an early impact.

 

[EBF]

After looking harder at the WRs, I think I might bump Floyd down a spot and move Wright ahead of him. A lot of people compare Wright to Steve Smith. I don't see that because he hasn't shown me the strength that helps make Steve Smith such a handful, but he's very fast and explosive. He reminds me of a slightly thicker, turbo-charged version of Santonio Holmes. The one thing that worries me is that he might be a little soft. He has a basketball background and I'm not really sure he's the kind of WR who wants to catch a slant over the middle with a safety running in to knock his head off.

 

[DexterDew]

are you saying that basketball is a non contact sport? because anyone who has played point has to be tough to go into the key with all the trees...

i agree that some smalls (and bigs) do a better job going over the middle than others (DJax has never been the same after almost getting decapitated... but at least that is now an automatic first down and fine), but i'm not sure you can downgrade Wright because he came from a basketball background... baseball would be a whole nother story

 

[loqutis]

I'm struggling with the idea of taking Luck #1 overall instead of Trent Richardson. I need a RB but if the hype is correct, I would hate to pass on the next Peyton Manning because I drafted the next Moreno, Reggie Bush, or some other "can't miss" RB prospects of years past.

 

[EBF]

I like Luck, but I think there's a 95% chance you'll be able to trade Richardson for Luck + extra value a year from now. Richardson is no Moreno. He's nearly a perfect RB prospect. Reggie was dynamic, but a lot of people always thought he was a tweener. Richardson is super athletic and he doesn't have the same build concerns.

 

[MAC_32]

After looking harder at the WRs, I think I might bump Floyd down a spot and move Wright ahead of him. A lot of people compare Wright to Steve Smith. I don't see that because he hasn't shown me the strength that helps make Steve Smith such a handful, but he's very fast and explosive. He reminds me of a slightly thicker, turbo-charged version of Santonio Holmes. The one thing that worries me is that he might be a little soft. He has a basketball background and I'm not really sure he's the kind of WR who wants to catch a slant over the middle with a safety running in to knock his head off.

You need to watch/read more about Wright, guy is tough as nails. If he doesn't thrive it's not because of his toughness.

 

[Hoosier16]

20.

Criner looks anything but slim. DraftScout has him listed at 6'2", 220. In fact, during the Senior Bowl, he was wearing his jersey untucked, kind of like how us fat guys wear our tee shirts. He looks a lot like Boldin to me.

 

[EBF]

He doesn't play like Boldin. I do think he could be a nice value though in the 2nd-3rd round of the NFL draft.

I'm not sure I see the standout physical traits of a #1 WR though.

 

[MAC_32]

He doesn't play like Boldin. I do think he could be a nice value though in the 2nd-3rd round of the NFL draft. I'm not sure I see the standout physical traits of a #1 WR though.

He's nothing like Boldin.Get him opposite a great #1 in a place like Houston and Arizona and he'd be money but if asked to shoulder the attention of defenses he'd become invisible.

 

[bengalbuck]

He doesn't play like Boldin. I do think he could be a nice value though in the 2nd-3rd round of the NFL draft. I'm not sure I see the standout physical traits of a #1 WR though.

He's nothing like Boldin.Get him opposite a great #1 in a place like Houston and Arizona and he'd be money but if asked to shoulder the attention of defenses he'd become invisible.

He's a guy I like as as option for my Bengals if he makes it to the 3rd round. He would seem to fit well long term with AJ Green, Jermaine Gresham and Jordan Shipley in the slot.

 

[Donsmith753]

EBF, there's an obvious drop off after the top 3 this year (some would argue there's a huge drop after #1 as well). Just curious where you think the next major drop comes?

I don't have a first rounder in one of my leagues and would like to move up and get one, just wondering where you feel the cut offs are.

 

[EBF]

EBF, there's an obvious drop off after the top 3 this year (some would argue there's a huge drop after #1 as well). Just curious where you think the next major drop comes? I don't have a first rounder in one of my leagues and would like to move up and get one, just wondering where you feel the cut offs are.

RichardsonBlackmonLuckWrightMartinGriffinMillerFloydI might also throw David Wilson into that second tier. BIG dropoff after these guys, IMO. Only exception might be if you needed a TE.

 

[duaneok66]

I respectfully disagree. Luck is a better NFL QB prospect, but RG3 is a better FF prospect at that position. I think that RG3 fits smoothly in the first tier. If guys like NFLN's Mike Lombardi are saying that there is no way that RG3 is not one of the top two players picked in the draft, i don't see how he ISN'T in the first tier.

 

[JohnnyU]

Anyone else feel Ronnie Hillman and Robert Turbin could be pleasant surprises? Hillman has a nice combination of speed and power and Turbin had a nice comeback year following his ACL tear in 2010 by rushing for 1500+ yds and 19 scores.

 

[JohnnyU]

EBF, there's an obvious drop off after the top 3 this year (some would argue there's a huge drop after #1 as well). Just curious where you think the next major drop comes? I don't have a first rounder in one of my leagues and would like to move up and get one, just wondering where you feel the cut offs are.

RichardsonBlackmonLuckWrightMartinGriffinMillerFloydI might also throw David Wilson into that second tier. BIG dropoff after these guys, IMO. Only exception might be if you needed a TE.

I'm not hearing good things about Blackmon. Josh Norris from Rotoworld wrote the following and it makes sense. He's not the only one with concerns either.

Blackmon has a fair argument to be the first receiver drafted, but the door is more wide open than it appears. He simply isn’t a vertical threat, securing a vast majority of his receptions within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Blackmon made a living dominating smaller, slower, less physical Big 12 cornerbacks thanks to consistent five- and seven-yard cushions at the snap, allowing quick completions and easy conversions on curl routes. Blackmon's catch radius and ability to adjust his body positioning are major pluses, but he is not an elite prospect in the vein of A.J. Green or Julio Jones. Downfield playmaking ability is a necessity for any receiver worth a top-ten pick. I am not overlooking Blackmon's capacity to use the sideline, or his strength at the catch point, but he is a limited receiver from a skill standpoint and hardly a surefire top-five pick.

 

[MAC_32]

He doesn't play like Boldin. I do think he could be a nice value though in the 2nd-3rd round of the NFL draft. I'm not sure I see the standout physical traits of a #1 WR though.

He's nothing like Boldin.Get him opposite a great #1 in a place like Houston and Arizona and he'd be money but if asked to shoulder the attention of defenses he'd become invisible.

He's a guy I like as as option for my Bengals if he makes it to the 3rd round. He would seem to fit well long term with AJ Green, Jermaine Gresham and Jordan Shipley in the slot.

You're right. As a Browns fan, I would hate to see him in Cincy. I think Shipley is a bum, but that's irrelevant if you have Green-Gresham-Criner.

 

[MAC_32]

EBF, there's an obvious drop off after the top 3 this year (some would argue there's a huge drop after #1 as well). Just curious where you think the next major drop comes? I don't have a first rounder in one of my leagues and would like to move up and get one, just wondering where you feel the cut offs are.

RichardsonBlackmonLuckWrightMartinGriffinMillerFloydI might also throw David Wilson into that second tier. BIG dropoff after these guys, IMO. Only exception might be if you needed a TE.

I think Wright, Martin, and RG3 make strong arguments for being lumped in at least closer to the top tier. Maybe Miller too. Then Floyd and Sanu too. I'm not a fan of Jeffrey and Wilson but others will be and I think they'll go before Floyd and Sanu and especially Criner (maybe McNutt too), who in the right situation will be a solid late 1st/early 2nd pick. LaMichael James is a wild card too. I don't like him as a feature back, but if he goes somewhere with the intent to play a Sproles/Reggie Bush role then he could thrive and be a soid fantasy #2.Unlike last year, I think there's strong value to be had anywhere in the top 12-15 picks. 15-20 picks if you're in IDP.

 

[MAC_32]

Anyone else feel Ronnie Hillman and Robert Turbin could be pleasant surprises? Hillman has a nice combination of speed and power and Turbin had a nice comeback year following his ACL tear in 2010 by rushing for 1500+ yds and 19 scores.

Some people love Turbin, but I haven't seen it. Solid backup, but not a starter.Hillman intrigues me. I think smaller backs are often under valued because they're just that, small, even if they have the bulk of a 'prototypical back.' This is why I love Doug Martin. Hillman's a little on the small side though, he doesn't have that bulk. I want to read somewhere that there's room on his frame to add 10-15 lbs without effecting his game. If I read that I'll be more interested. He's a gamer, but if he can't add weight he's a part 2 of a committee at best.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

What recent NFL backs would you compare Lamar Miller's running style and talent to? I can't place him, maybe Fred Jackson style wise?

It's probably because of the school, but I've seen more than a few comparisons made to Portis.

I think that's a fair comparison, but Miller lacks the fierceness when he runs that Portis had. He reminds me of a less elusive Reggie Bush but a better inside runner.

I see a Michael Bennett. Great Acceleration and good speed...limited Vision/agility.

 

[EBF]

EBF, there's an obvious drop off after the top 3 this year (some would argue there's a huge drop after #1 as well). Just curious where you think the next major drop comes? I don't have a first rounder in one of my leagues and would like to move up and get one, just wondering where you feel the cut offs are.

RichardsonBlackmonLuckWrightMartinGriffinMillerFloydI might also throw David Wilson into that second tier. BIG dropoff after these guys, IMO. Only exception might be if you needed a TE.

I'm not hearing good things about Blackmon. Josh Norris from Rotoworld wrote the following and it makes sense. He's not the only one with concerns either.

Blackmon has a fair argument to be the first receiver drafted, but the door is more wide open than it appears. He simply isn’t a vertical threat, securing a vast majority of his receptions within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Blackmon made a living dominating smaller, slower, less physical Big 12 cornerbacks thanks to consistent five- and seven-yard cushions at the snap, allowing quick completions and easy conversions on curl routes. Blackmon's catch radius and ability to adjust his body positioning are major pluses, but he is not an elite prospect in the vein of A.J. Green or Julio Jones. Downfield playmaking ability is a necessity for any receiver worth a top-ten pick. I am not overlooking Blackmon's capacity to use the sideline, or his strength at the catch point, but he is a limited receiver from a skill standpoint and hardly a surefire top-five pick.

Blackmon is not fast, but neither are the guys he compares to. Here are 40 times for some good NFL possession receiversez Bryant - 4.52Hakeem Nicks - 4.51Dwayne Bowe - 4.51Brandon Marshall - 4.52Boldin and Crabtree are probably even slower. I'd say the success of these guys bodes well for Blackmon. He is a very similar type of player. Big, strong, and agile with just enough speed to sneak it deep on occasion. He's never going to be an elite home run threat, but the team that drafts him will know that. There's no reason why he can't be a great chain mover. I see him as a Boldin/Nicks hybrid.