[DYNASTY] Draft thread (1 Viewer)

[Portis 26]

We all know (roughly) who the first ten picks in most dynasty drafts will be:

1 RB Reggie Bush

2 RB Laurence Maroney

3 RB Joseph Addai

4 RB Deangelo Williams

5 RB Lendale White

6 TE Vernon Davis

7 QB Matt Leinart

8 QB Vince Young

9 WR Santonio Holmes

10 WR Chad Jackson

Now, the question to me is, who goes in the next 10? I'm thinking:

WR Sinorice Moss: With Eli throwing to him could be as productive as his brother

RB Jerious Norwood: Potential RB of the future for Atlanta?

QB Jay Cutler: Might have to wait a couple years

RB Maurice Drew: Must have a shot in crowded Jags backfield

RB Leon Washington: Shot at succeeding C-Mart?

RB Brian Calhoun: In the mix if KJ falters

QB Kellen Clemons: Possible QB of the future?

QB Brodie Coyle: Another QB of the future?

WR Derek Hagan: Good shot at unseating Booker?

WR Greg Jennings: An opportunity in a talent desert?

 

[EBF]

You forgot Marcedes Lewis. He'll be a pretty appealing option after the top ten are gone.

 

[Portis 26]

You forgot Marcedes Lewis. He'll be a pretty appealing option after the top ten are gone.

Yes. And I would have thought Leonard Pope would be appealing in say the late 2nd round of dynasty drafts too.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Don't agree with the order of your top 10 (D.Will should be higher) but regardless, Mercedes and Drew are possible second 10 guys.

 

[Sopranos]

You forgot Marcedes Lewis. He'll be a pretty appealing option after the top ten are gone.

Yes. And I would have thought Leonard Pope would be appealing in say the late 2nd round of dynasty drafts too.

I agree. But i wont take V Davis before Young or Leinart. QB's hold too much Value. I would have to have 3 solid QBs to think about it. I have the 7th pick in one of my deep deep leagues and im wanting Young.

 

[jurb26]

I'm rather sure you have the top 10 players right. I'm more interested in what order people think they will go in for now though.

My guess:

1. Bush, NO

2. Williams, Car

3a. Maroney, NE

3b. Addai, Indy

5. Leinert, Arz

6. Davis, SF

7. White, Tenn

8. Young, Tenn

9. Jackson, NE

10. Holmes, Pitt

After that:

11. Drew, Jack

12. Norwood, Atl

13. Moss, NYG

14. Cutler, Den

15. Lewis, Jack

16. Washington, NYJ

17. Pope, Arz

18. Calhoun, Det

19. Hegan, Mia

20. Jennings, GB

 

[fruity pebbles]

I'm rather sure you have the top 10 players right. I'm more interested in what order people think they will go in for now though.

My guess:

1. Bush, NO

2. Williams, Car

3a. Maroney, NE

3b. Addai, Indy

5. Leinert, Arz

6. Davis, SF

7. White, Tenn

8. Young, Tenn

9. Jackson, NE

10. Holmes, Pitt

After that:

11. Drew, Jack

12. Norwood, Atl

13. Moss, NYG

14. Cutler, Den

15. Lewis, Jack

16. Washington, NYJ

17. Pope, Arz

18. Calhoun, Det

19. Hegan, Mia

20. Jennings, GB

That looks pretty good to me. I'd move Drew down a bit. Cutler and Calhoun up a bit.

 

[Portis 26]

What about WRs? Holmes, Jackson and Moss are clearly the top 3. I went for Hagan and Jennings after that but I guess Devin Hester, Maurice Stovall, Brad Smith and various others are in the mix too?

 

[Tick]

Don't forget IDPs - after that top 10, guys like Hawk, Williams, Greenway, and Sims enter the equation IMO.

 

[Portis 26]

Don't forget IDPs - after that top 10, guys like Hawk, Williams, Greenway, and Sims enter the equation IMO.

Indeed. I was presuming this was a non-IDP setup, but you're right, those names would come to the fore in IDP leagues. What about D'Qwell Jackson? Those undersized-but-make-a-ton-of-tackle LBs often end up valuable in IDP leagues (Tatupu, London Fletcher etc)

 

[Don Quixote]

Here are my VERY ROUGH rankings so far, FWIW...

1	Reggie Bush	RB	Saints2	DeAngelo Williams	RB	Carolina3	Joseph Addai	RB	Indy4	Laurence Maroney	RB	Pats5	Lendale White	RB	Titans6	Matt Leinart	QB	Cards7	Vernon Davis	TE	49ers8	Vince Young	QB	Titans9	Sinorice Moss	WR	Giants10	Santonio Holmes	WR	Steelers11	Jerious Norwood	RB	Falcons12	Jay Cutler	QB	Broncs13	Chad Jackson	WR	Pats14	Brian Calhoun	RB	Lions15	Maurice Drew	RB  Jags16	Marcedes Lewis	TE	Jags17	Kellen Clemens	QB	Jets18	Mario Williams	DE	Texans19	Greg Jennings	WR	Packers20	Leon Washington	RB	Jets21	Leonard Pope	TE	Arizona22	D'Qwell Jackson	LB	Cleveland23	Derek Hagan	WR	Miami24	A.J. Hawk	LB	Green Bay25	Brodie Croyle	QB	Kansas City26	Maurice Stovall	WR	Tampa Bay27	Chad Greenway	LB	Minnesota28	Stephen Gostkowski	K	New England29	Brandon Marshall	WR	Denver30	Tony Scheffler	TE	Denver31	Michael Huff	S	Oakland32	Joe Klopfenstein	TE	St Louis33	Bobby Carpenter	LB	Dallas

 

[coolnerd]

Don't forget IDPs - after that top 10, guys like Hawk, Williams, Greenway, and Sims enter the equation IMO.

I am picking 10th in an IDP league, and may take an IDP over a WR. Holmes and Jackson are places where early contribution is possible, but NE and Pitts are not normally not paradises for guys slated to be 2nd or 3rd Wrs for a while.

 

[UnknownCoach]

1 Bush

2 Williams

3 Maroney

4 Addai

5 White

6 Leinhart

7 Young

8 Davis

9 Cutler

10 C Jackson

11 Norwood

12 Drew

13 Holmes

14 Calhoun

15 Lewis

16 Moss

17 Jennings

18 T Jackson

19 Hester

20 Washington

21 Scheffler

22 Wilson

23 Pope

24 Lundy

25 B Williams

26 Daniels

27 Humes

28 Hagan

29 Stoval

30 Reid

 

[Portis 26]

Nice rankings, Don Quixote. Interested that you put D'Qwell ahead of Hawk?

 

[Tick]

Nice rankings, Don Quixote. Interested that you put D'Qwell ahead of Hawk?

There's some talk that Hawk might be SLB, which would ruin him fantasy-wise for the most part.

 

[Bud Kilmer]

Godd discussion for upcoming draft...

 

[Sopranos]

1 Bush

2 Williams

3 Maroney

4 Addai

5 White

6 Leinhart

7 Young

8 Davis

9 Cutler

10 C Jackson

11 Norwood

12 Drew

13 Holmes

14 Calhoun

15 Lewis

16 Moss

17 Jennings

18 T Jackson

19 Hester

20 Washington

21 Scheffler

22 Wilson

23 Pope

24 Lundy

25 B Williams

26 Daniels

27 Humes

28 Hagan

29 Stoval

30 Reid

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

WOW. Great list.

 

[-OZ-]

Alright, so where's the mock rookie draft?

 

[Portis 26]

10 C Jackson11 Norwood12 Drew13 Holmes

I'd say Jackson and Holmes need to be swapped around. Holmes is the more polished final product and has a pretty good shot at starting in Pittsburgh; I think Big Ben's continued maturation, the success of the passing game in the playoffs last season and the retirement of Bettis means they're going to sling it more this season. As for Jackson, I can't see Belichick giving a rookie WR much playing time, and there were some red flags from college.

 

[Don Quixote]

Nice rankings, Don Quixote. Interested that you put D'Qwell ahead of Hawk?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

There's some talk that Hawk might be SLB, which would ruin him fantasy-wise for the most part.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Tick nailed my worry. I think Abdul Hodge will end up having better fantasy numbers than Hawk. But don't want to put Hodge up that high, because there is no guarantee he will start.

 

[Maelstrom]

Alright, so where's the mock rookie draft?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'd love to see a mock including IDPs for a rookie draft. I'm actually looking to trade out of the #2 spot back to around 9-11 in exchange for a solid QB or picks, and am trying to decide who is likely to be there.The Quixote ranking is interesting, but I think my league values IDPs higher - I wouldn't be suprised to see Mario go in the first 15 picks, as well as Sims, Greenway and Hawk, along with the RBs and QBs. I think the WRs will go later.

Maybe something like this: (keep in mind I'm still a rook at IDP, so those rankings could easily be off, and this is slightly customized for my league scoring)

1 RB Reggie Bush

2 RB Deangelo Williams

3 RB Laurence Maroney

4 QB Matt Leinart

5 TE Vernon Davis (2ppr for TEs in my dynasty league)

6 QB Vince Young

7 RB Joseph Addai

8 RB Lendale White

9 DT Mario Williams (DLinemen are fairly important scorers in our scoring format)

10 LB Greenway

11 LB AJ Hawk (just due to name recognition - personally he should be 2nd/3rd LB)

12 WR Santonio Holmes

13 LB Sims

14 WR Chad Jackson

15 LB D'Qwell Jackson

 

[pretender]

 

[UnknownCoach]

10 C Jackson

11 Norwood

12 Drew

13 Holmes

I'd say Jackson and Holmes need to be swapped around. Holmes is the more polished final product and has a pretty good shot at starting in Pittsburgh; I think Big Ben's continued maturation, the success of the passing game in the playoffs last season and the retirement of Bettis means they're going to sling it more this season. As for Jackson, I can't see Belichick giving a rookie WR much playing time, and there were some red flags from college.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I put them all in the same tier (and I'm making a couple further adjustments to my tiers) which means I think their value is near identicle. So its all good. I happen to like Jackson's situation better and just as importantly to me, he's the only WR with considetation who has the physical measurables I'm looking for in a prospect. They all come with red flags. I'll take the measurables.As far as the teams, neither is bad. However I see a better opportunity for a rookie to become WR1 quality in New England than Pittsburg. New England looks like one of the best situations a rookie WR could land in IMO. While Branch isnt bad, they havent had a real WR1 there in a long time. Not because their system doesnt dictate the opportunity for one, but because they havent had anybody good enough. I'm not saying Jackson is good enough. Only that the opportunity is definately there. In Pittsburg, Holmes has a great chance to be the WR2 but he's little competition to Ward.

This is dynasty talk. I'm not expecting any WR to do anything of worth in his first year. It doesnt matter which one starts first. Its what they do after they break out with fantasy quality stats that counts if they ever do break out into a fantasy receiver of note. 600 receiving yards in 16 games is worthless to any fantasy team.

 

[-OZ-]

Alright, so where's the mock rookie draft?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'd love to see a mock including IDPs for a rookie draft. <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Let's make it happen.

 

[Kit Fisto]

Can't believe Demetrius Williams didn't make ANYONE's list.

Keep an eye on him this year. Could be the SOD.

 

[Tick]

I'm messing around with a ranking formula for the second year in a row... I know it'll never be perfect and will never replace gut feelings, but it's the kind of thing I like to do, and it helps me see some tiers...

Anyway, here's what it spits out:

1 Bush 86.48436214

2 Williams 79.11358025

3 Maroney 79.06131687

4 Addai 78.83580247

5 White 78.47530864

6 Davis 73.36234568

7 Jackson 72.10962963

8 Leinart 67.74845679

9 Holmes 67.74095238

10 Young 67.17746914

11 Calhoun 65.63868313

12 Pope 65.18641975

13 Lewis 64.9617284

14 Drew 64.86522634

15 Moss 64.75936508

16 Norwood 64.70308642

17 Jennings 59.94793651

18 Washington 59.55082305

19 Cutler 59.43209877

20 Wilson 58.97693122

21 Stovall 58.21714286

22 Harrison 57.60411523

23 Hagan 57.58878307

24 Croyle 56.31365741

25 DemWilliams 54.44994709

26 Avant 54.02031746

No IDPs added in yet, and maybe it won't happen at all.

In case anyone's interested, here's what I fed into it...

1. Talent level - taken from a weighted average of nine draft guides, giving most weight to Coyle and PFW.

2. Long term outlook. Roughly, how much of their team's production do I expect them to get in 3 years.

3. Short term outlook. Same, but for this year.

4. Offense strength applicable to position. Computed from team stats for last two seasons, then adjusted based on offseason coaching and personnel changes.

All of these are on a 100 point scale, then I put weights on each of them for each position.

Finally, I subtract from their final ratings based on position importance (RBs lose 0, WRs lose 10, QBs/TEs lose 20).

(edit: tier gaps added)

 

[Avery]

In case anyone's interested, here's what I fed into it...

1. Talent level - taken from a weighted average of nine draft guides, giving most weight to Coyle and PFW.

2. Long term outlook.  Roughly, how much of their team's production do I expect them to get in 3 years.

3. Short term outlook.  Same, but for this year.

4. Offense strength applicable to position.  Computed from team stats for last two seasons, then adjusted based on offseason coaching and personnel changes.

All of these are on a 100 point scale, then I put weights on each of them for each position.

Finally, I subtract from their final ratings based on position importance (RBs lose 0, WRs lose 10, QBs/TEs lose 20).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Intimidatingly impressive system you have there.

 

[coco the monkey]

I'm messing around with a ranking formula for the second year in a row... I know it'll never be perfect and will never replace gut feelings, but it's the kind of thing I like to do, and it helps me see some tiers...

Anyway, here's what it spits out:

1 Bush 86.48436214

2 Williams 79.11358025

3 Maroney 79.06131687

4 Addai 78.83580247

5 White 78.47530864

6 Davis 73.36234568

7 Jackson 72.10962963

8 Leinart 67.74845679

9 Holmes 67.74095238

10 Young 67.17746914

11 Calhoun 65.63868313

12 Pope 65.18641975

13 Lewis 64.9617284

14 Drew 64.86522634

15 Moss 64.75936508

16 Norwood 64.70308642

17 Jennings 59.94793651

18 Washington 59.55082305

19 Cutler 59.43209877

20 Wilson 58.97693122

21 Stovall 58.21714286

22 Harrison 57.60411523

23 Hagan 57.58878307

24 Croyle 56.31365741

25 DemWilliams 54.44994709

26 Avant 54.02031746

No IDPs added in yet, and maybe it won't happen at all.

In case anyone's interested, here's what I fed into it...

1. Talent level - taken from a weighted average of nine draft guides, giving most weight to Coyle and PFW.

2. Long term outlook.  Roughly, how much of their team's production do I expect them to get in 3 years.

3. Short term outlook.  Same, but for this year.

4. Offense strength applicable to position.  Computed from team stats for last two seasons, then adjusted based on offseason coaching and personnel changes.

All of these are on a 100 point scale, then I put weights on each of them for each position.

Finally, I subtract from their final ratings based on position importance (RBs lose 0, WRs lose 10, QBs/TEs lose 20).

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Interesting. What did the ranking look like last year?

 

[Tick]

Interesting. What did the ranking look like last year?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Scoring system was different, but the idea was the same and a lot of the computations were the same, but it looked like this...1 Brown MIA

2 Benson CHI

3 Williams TBB

4 Arrington ARI

5 Williamson MIN

6 Clayton BAL

7 Gore SFO

8 Shelton CAR

9 Edwards CLE

10 ASmithQB SFO

11 MWilliams DET

12 Rodgers GBP

13 Brown PHI

14 MJones JAC

15 Bradley CHI

16 Clarett DEN

17 Murphy GBP

18 White ATL

19 Jacobs NYG

20 Morrency HOU

21 Campbell WAS

22 Barber DAL

23 Roby TEN

24 Miller PIT

25 Jackson SDC

26 Moats PHI

27 Fason MIN

28 Pearman JAC

29 Parrish BUF

30 Nash TEN

 

[massraider]

Ooof. I ahve the 4th pick, so I imagine I'll going between Addai and White up until draft day. Man, a lotta possibilities.

 

[Biabreakable]

I'm messing around with a ranking formula for the second year in a row... I know it'll never be perfect and will never replace gut feelings, but it's the kind of thing I like to do, and it helps me see some tiers...

Anyway, here's what it spits out:

1 Bush 86.48436214

2 Williams 79.11358025

3 Maroney 79.06131687

4 Addai 78.83580247

5 White 78.47530864

6 Davis 73.36234568

7 Jackson 72.10962963

8 Leinart 67.74845679

9 Holmes 67.74095238

10 Young 67.17746914

11 Calhoun 65.63868313

12 Pope 65.18641975

13 Lewis 64.9617284

14 Drew 64.86522634

15 Moss 64.75936508

16 Norwood 64.70308642

17 Jennings 59.94793651

18 Washington 59.55082305

19 Cutler 59.43209877

20 Wilson 58.97693122

21 Stovall 58.21714286

22 Harrison 57.60411523

23 Hagan 57.58878307

24 Croyle 56.31365741

25 DemWilliams 54.44994709

26 Avant 54.02031746

No IDPs added in yet, and maybe it won't happen at all.

In case anyone's interested, here's what I fed into it...

1. Talent level - taken from a weighted average of nine draft guides, giving most weight to Coyle and PFW.

2. Long term outlook.  Roughly, how much of their team's production do I expect them to get in 3 years.

3. Short term outlook.  Same, but for this year.

4. Offense strength applicable to position.  Computed from team stats for last two seasons, then adjusted based on offseason coaching and personnel changes.

All of these are on a 100 point scale, then I put weights on each of them for each position.

Finally, I subtract from their final ratings based on position importance (RBs lose 0, WRs lose 10, QBs/TEs lose 20).

(edit: tier gaps added)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I like this Tick. It pools data from a lot of sources and then generates an average or consenses. If 2 heads are better than one then 1000 are better than 2. Add salt simmer stir then go to the gut.Thanks for sharing the durty work.

 

[Portis 26]

For what it's worth, I've seen the top 5 RBs go in the first 5 picks in every draft so far.

 

[Tick]

For what it's worth, I've seen the top 5 RBs go in the first 5 picks in every draft so far.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Except for Zealots leagues 1, 4, 7, 17, 23, 29, 36, 37, 41.Leagues with them going 1-5: 2, 6, 14, 20, 28, 35, 38, 43, 48.

So roughly half of them differ from the 1-5 pattern.

 

[cws3030]

Heres how they have been voted on here:

1. RB- Reggie Bush, NO

2. RB- Laurence Maroney, NE

(Runoff) 3. RB- DeAngelo Williams, CAR

4. RB- Joseph Addai, IND

(Runoff) 5. RB- Lendale White, TEN

6. TE- Vernon Davis, SF

(Runoff) 7. QB- Matt Leinart, ARI

8. QB- Vince Young, TEN

9. QB- Jay Cutler, DEN

10. WR- Santonio Holmes, PIT

11. WR- Chad Jackson, NE

12. RB- Jerious Norwood, ATL

 

[oukurt]

Guys like

10. WR- Santonio Holmes, PIT

11. WR- Chad Jackson, NE

12. RB- Jerious Norwood, ATL

13. RB- Drew

14. WR- Moss

15. TE- Lewis

All being around at the turn of most rookie drafts. Is this rookie draft twice as deep as last year?

 

[Keg]

Nice rankings, Don Quixote. Interested that you put D'Qwell ahead of Hawk?

There's some talk that Hawk might be SLB, which would ruin him fantasy-wise for the most part.

the Packers LBs have been discussed a ton in the IDP Forum so far this offseason...if anyone is gonna be moved to SLB it would most likely be BARNETT not HAWK

but more then likely Barnett stays in the Middle and Hawk at WLB

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...2508&hl=barnett

LOTS of Packer LB talk and info here