Ditka Butkus
Footballguy
I'm surprised the Browns went RB in the third and not WR as Gordon could be gone for a long time if reports of his current failed drug test are true.
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Dynasty: Josh Gordon is not a top tier player...right? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Concept Coop
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KellysHeroes
Footballguy
Theres a lot of crow to be eaten in these Gordon threads. I would say the minority of us that avoided or traded away Gordon (and Blackmon for that matter) were ridiculed and called bad FF owners because we saw the signs of bonehead behavior & knew chances are it would continue. Guess what, we cashed out when we could and got atleast something for these high risk players; just ahead of the curve.Had a guy like this post last night. Went back to see what I wrote. Realized I'd nailed it. These character risks are risks for a reason. It's no less risky than a medical risk. Gordon is an idiot.
Shutout
Footballguy
Yeah, I mentioned in another trhread that I sold both these guys and I had my share of doubts at times but long term it looks like the case is building for sellersTheres a lot of crow to be eaten in these Gordon threads. I would say the minority of us that avoided or traded away Gordon (and Blackmon for that matter) were ridiculed and called bad FF owners because we saw the signs of bonehead behavior & knew chances are it would continue. Guess what, we cashed out when we could and got atleast something for these high risk players; just ahead of the curve.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
As long as you are getting right around market value for a stud, it's usually not a BAD move to trade them. And if you make a habit of always trading away the studs with question marks like Gordon/Blackon, and get that market value, you will be better off for it in the long run.
Trading them away cheap wouldn't be a good idea IMO. Over time I think that would work against you.
That said. I am targeting Gordon in one league where I am rebuilding, and will inquire about him in EVERY league. I don't own him at all in any of the handful of dynasty leagues I am in, but I just might soon enough.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
fantasy world is going to catch up after this, once a guy hits that 2nd stage their value is going to tank bigtime.Yeah, I mentioned in another trhread that I sold both these guys and I had my share of doubts at times but long term it looks like the case is building for sellersTheres a lot of crow to be eaten in these Gordon threads. I would say the minority of us that avoided or traded away Gordon (and Blackmon for that matter) were ridiculed and called bad FF owners because we saw the signs of bonehead behavior & knew chances are it would continue. Guess what, we cashed out when we could and got atleast something for these high risk players; just ahead of the curve.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
People are stupid though. They will see two mig games in a row and forget about the risk. You see it all the time.
CLE is WAYYYYY too confident about this situation for it to be the disaster it appears at first blush. All the cards can't possibly be on the table, here. At this point I think they'd be genuinely shocked if he were lost for a year. Not sure why that is, but it really seems to be the case.
I sure as hell wouldn't be trading him for pennies on the dollar right now. I might be moving to acquire.
I sure as hell wouldn't be trading him for pennies on the dollar right now. I might be moving to acquire.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
Maybe but what if he gets popped again in January?
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I'm holding because of this. Gordon only had a 2 game suspension last year (Blackmon had 4), is he really this far in the program? Is a full year really a risk here? Prices are tanked already, no sense selling him for pennies at this point. Getting a mid-tier guy/pick for him though for a contending team? That might make sense to cut bait and take what you can get.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Anyone hoping that this particular suspension's length will be less than a year, and not HUGELY downgrading him is missing the point entirely, as are those looking to "buy low" right now. Regardless of where he is / was in the program a month ago, he's in stage three moving forward, which means random tests 10x every month moving forward FOR THE REST OF HIS CAREER. However long he's gone for, he's peeing in a cup every three days for the duration -- and he very clearly can't stay clean at this point. There is a very real chance that Gordon (and Blackmon for that matter) never sets foot on an NFL field again, because doing so will require something along the lines of 120 clean tests in a row (and that includes alcohol) over a year long period of time. Why in God's name would anyone bet on that happening at this point? And no one will ever know if these guys keep failing tests while already suspended due to HIPPA medical confidentiality laws. It's a horribly stupid policy on the NFL's part, but bad rules are still rules.
If by "buy low" you mean a rookie 3rd or some scrub players, sure. If you're giving up major value for either dude, you're a huge sucker.
If by "buy low" you mean a rookie 3rd or some scrub players, sure. If you're giving up major value for either dude, you're a huge sucker.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Neither player has had anything truly taken away from them up to now. You can I can sit here and say "he lost 100's of thousands of dollars, he should learn by now" but that isn't their pressure point. They were allowed to practice. They were allowed to attend mini-camps and hang with the team during pre-season. Gordon got a 14 day vacation and Blackmon go 28. Missing out on a couple of check, with what they are already making, isn't an impact punishment.
You take away their keys, you lock them out, you tell them "see you next season - maybe" - that's scared straight stuff there.
Gordon moreso than Blackmon, since his issues look more like decisions than hardcore addiction, but both of these guy can have HUGE payouts if they figure it out. Ever play the lottery? You may have a one in a godzillion chance to hit, but if you do holy cow. You might play a couple bucks every week, but what do you do when it hits 100M? You drop a 20-spot. Or 50. Or 100. It's "worth the risk".
If I get Gordon in 2015 (let alone if he wins an appeal and gets reduced/nothing in 2014) for a 1st rounder, I'll risk that. Mike Wallace? Ben Tate? Sold.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Yeah, if you genuinely believe that buying actual lottery tickets is worth the investment, then sure Gordon and Blackmon are good buys for 1sts. Good luck.
Bucky86
Footballguy
Just to be clear, I'd only look to acquire at that "pennies on the dollar" price, too. But if any owner is that panicky, then I wouldn't have such huge reservations that I wouldn't gamble on a proven tier one WR. The downside is a cheap investment gets you nothing all year. Hell, that happens several times with everybody's draft already, without a fraction of the upside.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I'm gobsmacked at the number of people that are looking at this differently than the above.
Both guys were suspended at the start of 2013 and couldn't stay clean for even a few months after the suspension ended.
It's a HORRIBLE bet to buy them for anything other than some guy you were thinking of cutting, but that someone else actually likes a little bit.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Terrance West, yes. Johnny Manziel, no, but I have him rated higher than the "mid-to-late 2nd" range.
Tau837
Footballguy
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
What are Gordon owners thinking now?
MAC_32
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I bought. I think he's the next Ray Lewis but with far less serious implications for his crimes. Still the age of some rookies.
georg013
Footballguy
True. Haven't lost a minute of sleep either! The smart owners (like me) will just sit back and let Calvin Johnson, Alshon Jeffery, and DT do the heavy lifting until JG gets back. Maybe even let my rookies Sammy Watkins and Marquise Lee get some reps during the bye weeks. Proactive ownership. Waiting for his return. Not even thinking about moving him at this point.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Gordon is funny. I started out this thread backing people like Soulfly and t with T off of Gordon and was told I'm nuts. Now without another game having been played, I'm urging people to buy him. Soulfly obviously can't buy him because he's already heavily invested. But T with T should buy.
Right now I'd give up a 3rd round rookie pick in 2015. I'd give a veteran player like Reggie Wayne or Steve Smith for him. I would not give a 1st. I would not give a guy like Greg Jennings. But again nothing has happened to him yet. He's not Blackmon. He's not Lawrence Phillips or Michael Vick. He's going to be dealt with as an individual. Now is the time to pull the trigger.
People are predicting career end for him. That isn't going to happen. He's too good. He puts asses in the seats and Cleveland is about to undergo a big PR boost with the arrival of Manziel. They are going to be in the spotlight. They are going to ascend. They are a bottom dweller right now. They are moving north. Gordon is going to be a part of that because he can really play.
As a pure talent, only Calvin and Dez stand above him right now I think. When you are that good at this young (he's 23) the NFL will find a way to get you back on the field. Because you make them money.
Right now I'd give up a 3rd round rookie pick in 2015. I'd give a veteran player like Reggie Wayne or Steve Smith for him. I would not give a 1st. I would not give a guy like Greg Jennings. But again nothing has happened to him yet. He's not Blackmon. He's not Lawrence Phillips or Michael Vick. He's going to be dealt with as an individual. Now is the time to pull the trigger.
People are predicting career end for him. That isn't going to happen. He's too good. He puts asses in the seats and Cleveland is about to undergo a big PR boost with the arrival of Manziel. They are going to be in the spotlight. They are going to ascend. They are a bottom dweller right now. They are moving north. Gordon is going to be a part of that because he can really play.
As a pure talent, only Calvin and Dez stand above him right now I think. When you are that good at this young (he's 23) the NFL will find a way to get you back on the field. Because you make them money.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Unfortunately all of his owners in my leagues are doing the same. All said they would do it for a 1, but nothing less.
georg013
Footballguy
Was offered a 2016 1st round pick for Gordon last week and I #####-slapped it off the negotiating table. Patience is becoming a lost art in this day and age of immediate gratification. Even if you hate big bad Gordon and want to take the high road because you stand to lose so much in opportunity cost, why sell him at a discount? If you are Chicken Little and believe the sky is falling I can see it. But most know he will likely be back and performing at a high level. Then, and only then, if I was afraid to ride without training wheels would I move him for something closer to his performance value. Maybe he never reaches Calvin or AJ Green levels again based on the risk, but he will eventually be worth more than what many are offering for him now. But then again, this is coming from a guy who rode Aaron Hernandez all the way to a jail cell. How does my TE position look one year later? Jordan Cameron, Eric Ebron, Dwayne Allen. Proof positive that player loss can be overcome.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
Aaron Hernandez was a mind blowing thing. Not close to Gordon. I mean you have Johnny Jolly who went to prison for drugs, Big Ben who did something very inappropriate in a strip club bathroom, you have ray rice knocking out his girlfriend, Roddy White failure I appear in court, Dwayne Bowe - possession, Jason peters resisting arrest, aldon smith - terrorism or some ####.
But you never hear about the upcoming suspension for these guys. You what else? None of them can hold Gordon's jockstrap. He will be back.
But you never hear about the upcoming suspension for these guys. You what else? None of them can hold Gordon's jockstrap. He will be back.
ItsOnlytheRiver
Footballguy
Completely agree. There are some on this board that would love to convince you otherwise. But probably just because they are hoping you're a Gordon owner in their league.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Gordon will be back sometime next year if he is an angel until then. He wont be. He will stumble again.
ex-ghost
Footballguy
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
ONLY 14 MONTHS TO GO!
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
No, he will tease with good behavior until the season starts. And then about 1-2 games in something will happen again.
ex-ghost
Footballguy
ex-ghost
Footballguy
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
There was a year and a half of speculation and discussion. But at this point I think most people are (wisely) waiting to see if he actually gets through this suspension without messing up again. Then there will be talk.
mquinnjr
Footballguy
Lots of moving parts/ambiguity it seems like in terms of salary cap pro-ration and when Gordon could become an UFA vs. whether or not the Browns cut and/or try to recoup his signing bonus. I think a change of scenery could be the biggest boost for his prospective dynasty value. Plug him into the Carolina WR corps, etc. (any team with an above-average QB) if reinstated and that would get his dynasty value moving again for sure.
Detroit Revival
Footballguy
He was dropped in my 10 team, 25 man roster dynasty. I'm picking up and holding.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
Would you drop RB Hillman for Gordon, looking longterm value or does Gordon not even have that kind of value left ??
Stealthycat
Footballguy
that's sad he doesn't even have THAT value ... my my how the mighty fall
of course, he DOES have a chance to play again .. Blackmon doesn't, I don't think Mallett will .... damn Randle might be pouting his way out of the NFL too
of course, he DOES have a chance to play again .. Blackmon doesn't, I don't think Mallett will .... damn Randle might be pouting his way out of the NFL too
Soulfly3
Footballguy
Maybe 3-4 WRs Id even consider trading gordon for at this exact moment in a dynasty
do some actual reading and pay attention to the gordon situation.... kid is passing every single test. weekly. and working and staying in football shape better than when he was actually playing.
buy. BUY. or hold. do NOT sell.
