Dynasty: Josh Gordon is not a top tier player...right? (1 Viewer)

[Soulfly3]

Too bad it took harvin over 2 years and like 5 weeks to do it.

It took Harvin just 16 games, played consecutively, to achieve those numbers.

Yes, but as noted, over two separate seasons... which does nothing fantasy wise.

also, that was previous to a season and a half layoff (week 9 of the 2012 season was his last game, aside from that "comeback" this season for less than a single game)... expecting him to be the same player is tough sledding.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Ok, I broke this down completely and did on paper, not my head: His last 16 games in Min went as follows

2012 Season: 9 games

Rec: 62rec / 677yds / 3tds = 62+ 67 + 18 = 147pts

Rush: 96yds / 2tds = 9 + 12 = 21

147+21 = 168pts

2011 Season: Final 7 games (Week 11-Week17)

Rec: 50rec / 581yds / 6tds = 50 + 58 + 18 = 126pts

Rush: 142yds / 1td = 14 + 6 = 20pts

Total: 147 + 21 + 126 + 20 = 314pts

**********************************

Great numbers. Absolutely. Harvin is a freak, and I love him

Things to keep in mind: This is Josh Gordon's 2nd season in the league. Harvin's stats were combinations from year 3+4 (fantasy is played on a per season basis)

Secondly, Harvin's injury proneness / Migraines. Folks have no issue talking about Gordon's drug habits, so it's only fair we discuss that Harvin has played 10 of 32 regular season games in the past 2 seasons.

Choose your risk. Id much rather have the guy who holds his fate in his hands, than a guy who suffers from constant physical breakdowns. This, and as good as Harvin has been when he's played, he didnt drop my jaw like Gordon did this season

Numbers are still off a little. 6 receiving TDs in 2011 works out to 36 points, not 18, and you shortchanged him about a point and a half by rounding down on all the yards. But close enough- however you calculate it, the only thing that matters is that it works out to more points than were scored by Josh Gordon in his last 16 games. People act like Harvin is unproven and Gordon is a historically great fantasy receiver, so it's important to remind them that Percy Harvin scored more fantasy points in PPR leagues than Josh Gordon. As for Harvin's injuries... sure, he's basically missed his last 25 games. Of course, by the same token, he played in 54 of his first 57 games, too. His migraines are old news- he was diagnosed with sleep apnea, he got it treated, and he hasn't had one in years. The concussion is just bad luck- anyone who suffered that helmet-to-helmet hit would have been concussed. It's a limitation of the human body in general, not an indictment of Percy Harvin in particular. That leaves us with the ankle and hip injury- two unrelated injuries with no priors. I don't see that as evidence that he's injury prone. Guys get injured. Sometimes injuries happen in streaks. That doesn't mean they aren't random. Sometimes random is streaky. People are always so eager to label someone as "injury prone". How'd that work out with Fred Taylor? How'd that work out with Matt Stafford? I will say this: past injuries do not correlate with future injuries nearly as well as past failed drug tests correlate with future failed drug tests.

As for dropping jaws... Different people will see different things when they watch. Personally, I was very impressed by Harvin in 2012. I wasn't the only one; at the time of his injury, there was a consensus that he was the best offensive player on a team that featured Adrian Peterson. At the time of his injury, he was a legitimate, honest-to-goodness MVP front-runner. He inspired Seattle to give up a first rounder and $60m in cash. Lots of people were very impressed by Percy Harvin when last he stepped on a football field. I have a feeling once he's back out there, he'll quickly remind them of why. In the meantime... out of sight, out of mind, I guess.

 

[Soulfly3]

For fantasy purposes though, Harvin's BEST season was his 2011 season.

His 2011 season equated to 265 fantasy points.

Gordon's 2013 season was 313 fantasy points.

We're talking a 48 point difference... we're also talking a year and a half away from the game for Harvin. It's for these reason I dont have them close.

Believe me, Im not ####ting on harvin. Im trying to acquire him. But in my eyes, if Im left with the choice of the two, I have no hesitations.

 

[ghostguy123]

Oh yeah, Gordon over harvin easily in my book.

Although Harvin is very underrated at the moment, and Gordon is overrated. They are closer than the draft spots I saw them go in a startup where Gordon was in the top 7-7 and Harvin was a late 4th rounder

 

[JuniorNB]

The chance of Crystal Harvin getting injured are WAY higher than of Gordon getting suspended. Fred Taylor laughs at Percy Harvin.

 

[drfeelgood]

Guys get injured. Sometimes injuries happen in streaks. That doesn't mean they aren't random. Sometimes random is streaky. People are always so eager to label someone as "injury prone". How'd that work out with Fred Taylor? How'd that work out with Matt Stafford? I will say this: past injuries do not correlate with future injuries nearly as well as past failed drug tests correlate with future failed drug tests.

I don't think injuries, failed drug test, or even arrests can be predicted. I remember you traded Marshall for Harvin back in 2012, because you liked what you saw in Harvin, and Marshall you felt was too risky with his character issues. How'd that work out for you thus far? Harvin missed half the season in 2012, and most all of last year, meanwhile Marshall has grown up and had two great seasons.

 

[Adam Harstad]

For fantasy purposes though, Harvin's BEST season was his 2011 season.

His 2011 season equated to 265 fantasy points.

Gordon's 2013 season was 313 fantasy points.

We're talking a 48 point difference... we're also talking a year and a half away from the game for Harvin. It's for these reason I dont have them close.

Believe me, Im not ####ting on harvin. Im trying to acquire him. But in my eyes, if Im left with the choice of the two, I have no hesitations.

Any way you want to parse it, Percy Harvin has a much better, longer, more established record of production than Josh Gordon. In his four seasons in the league, Percy Harvin ranked as WR24, WR21, WR7, and WR2 (at the time of his injury). That's one hell of a career arc. Percy Harvin also has demonstrated every bit as much fantasy upside as Josh Gordon, scoring slightly more fantasy points per game over a 16-game stretch running from the second half of 2011 through his injury at the end of the first half of 2012. In his last 16 games in Minnesota, Harvin had 112 receptions, 1492 yards, and 11 offensive touchdowns, which stacks up favorably against anything Gordon has ever done in PPR. The 2013 Cleveland Browns were a top-10 passing offense. The 2011-2012 Minnesota Vikings were a bottom-5 passing offense. If we look at the two receivers, and we ask "who has demonstrated an ability to put up fantasy points", the answer is both, but Harvin more so.

This isn't to say that Harvin doesn't have concerns surrounding him. I'm not so worried about his time away from the game, since he's been working with NFL teams that whole time- it's not like Mo Clarett and BMW where he was stuck out in limbo and he let his conditioning go to hell. I'm also not terribly worried about his injuries- the guy was extremely healthy for his first three and a half years, only missing time to a migraine issue that has since been resolved. Since then, he has suffered 3 likely-unrelated injuries, one of which wasn't a reflection on him (it was a massive helmet-to-helmet hit that would have concussed any human being on the planet). Which leaves us with a nagging sprained ankle that he might have been able to play through if he hadn't pissed off his coaching staff, and a labral tear so small that the Seahawks didn't even notice it during their thorough player physical when they acquired him. It's possible the tear was a cascade from the ankle injury, or it's possible it was something unrelated. Either way, both injuries are now resolved. Are we going to speculate that Percy Harvin is at higher risk for sprained ankles in the future? Players get sprained ankles all the time without getting the "injury prone" tag slapped on them. Injuries are a fact of life in the NFL. Those injuries are random. Random is sometimes streaky. By its very nature, random means that sometimes we're going to see clusters of unrelated injuries in close proximity to each other. That doesn't prove that the injuries weren't random (and that the player, therefore, is injury prone). It proves that random is random. If the injuries are separate, non-recurring injuries of a type that are not chronic (like hamstring issues or degenerative knee conditions), then they carry little predictive power.

The bigger concern, in my opinion, is what his role will be in Seattle will be. And that's a serious question, one that should absolutely affect his value. But Gordon has his questions, too. Josh Gordon is a guy who went to college, tested positive for drugs, got suspended, tested positive for drugs, got kicked off the team, transferred to another school where it's rumored he tested positive for drugs again, never played for them, entered the supplemental draft, joined the league, and tested positive for drugs at least once, possibly twice (depending on what stage of the substance abuse program he entered the league in). The biggest silver lining for Gordon is that he got his suspension reduced on appeal, which suggests there were some sort of extenuating circumstances, but either way... this is a guy who has a long history of failing to keep himself clean despite severe consequences for failure, who now may or may not find himself in stage 3 of the substance abuse program. And Gordon has every bit as much uncertainty surrounding his role in the new offense as Percy Harvin does, to boot. Cleveland led the league in passing attempts last year. Norv Turner is the best coach in NFL history for deep threats like Gordon. There's plenty of room for things to get worse for Josh.

I like them both, but to me, it's clear that I'd rather gamble on Harvin's risks than Gordon's. Other reasonable people are going to disagree, and that's what makes fantasy great- if everyone agreed with me, for instance, trading would suck. But whether everyone agrees with it or not, an argument can most certainly be made for having Harvin over Gordon. And it just was.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Guys get injured. Sometimes injuries happen in streaks. That doesn't mean they aren't random. Sometimes random is streaky. People are always so eager to label someone as "injury prone". How'd that work out with Fred Taylor? How'd that work out with Matt Stafford? I will say this: past injuries do not correlate with future injuries nearly as well as past failed drug tests correlate with future failed drug tests.

I don't think injuries, failed drug test, or even arrests can be predicted. I remember you traded Marshall for Harvin back in 2012, because you liked what you saw in Harvin, and Marshall you felt was too risky with his character issues. How'd that work out for you thus far? Harvin missed half the season in 2012, and most all of last year, meanwhile Marshall has grown up and had two great seasons.

I wasn't worried about Marshall's character concerns when I traded him away in 2012. Sheriff Goodell had me fooled when he came into the league talking about all the suspensions he was going to hand down, but by 2012 I'd learned that he was a fraud and I was a sucker for believing him. I was a big Brandon Marshall fan when I traded him away in 2012, that trade was all about the fact that Percy Harvin was equally productive and 4 years younger. He still is 4 years younger, too. Sucks that Harvin got hurt, but I don't regret that trade for a second- I still feel I'll more than recoup any lost value over the coming years as Marshall moves further and further beyond his 30th birthday while Harvin is still on the upslope of his career.

Besides, injuries, failed drug tests, and arrests absolutely can be predicted. Some players are legitimately injury prone. The odds of Miles Austin having hamstring issues are dramatically higher than they are for, say, Larry Fitzgerald. The odds of Jahvid Best getting another concussion are higher than they are for Jamaal Charles. Danario Alexander's ligaments are apparently made out of Laffy Taffy, and the league agrees, which is why San Diego tendered him at the lowest level in RFA and why no team even bothered to shoot him an offer. I cannot say with 100% certainty that these guys are going to get injured, any more than I can say with 100% certainty that ironman Chris Johnson is going to stay healthy, but it's all about identifying heightened chances. More than just heightened chances, it's also about identifying heightened consequences. If Jamaal Charles suffers a concussion, he'll miss a couple of weeks. If Cecil Shorts suffers another concussion, his career might be over. Even if both were equally likely to suffer a concussion, that extra cost for Shorts adds up to a higher risk.

Similarly, who is more likely to test positive for drugs in the future, a guy like Calvin Johnson who has never tested positive before, or a guy like Josh Gordon who has failed at least 4 drug tests already? From a risk-evaluation standpoint, that seems like an easy one. If Calvin Johnson tests positive for drugs, what happens? Nothing- no suspension for a first failed test, he just secretly enters stage 1 of the program (this assumes he's not there already- it's possible he has one failed test on his resume and we just don't know about it). If Josh Gordon tests positive for drugs, what happens? Well, best case scenario is that he's in stage 2, so a failed test mandates a 4-game suspension and life-long entry into stage 3. Worst case scenario, Gordon's already in stage 3 and he can kiss an entire season goodbye.

Also, for those who think arrests and the like can't be predicted... remember why Miami was so eager to trade away Marshall? Because he punched a lady in the face in a bar brawl in New York City. The people who believed Marshall would keep on getting into legal trouble were 100% right about him, they were just wrong about how Goodell would respond to his continued violations of the personal conduct policy. I thought that Marshall would struggle to keep his nose clean, and that Goodell would make an example out of him. Just because I was wrong about that second part doesn't mean I wasn't right about the first part.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Too bad it took harvin over 2 years and like 5 weeks to do it.

It took Harvin just 16 games, played consecutively, to achieve those numbers.

how points did Harvin have this yr?

 

[Adam Harstad]

Too bad it took harvin over 2 years and like 5 weeks to do it.

It took Harvin just 16 games, played consecutively, to achieve those numbers.

how points did Harvin have this yr?

2.7. How many points did Jamaal Charles have in 2011? Peyton Manning? How many points did Tom Brady have in 2008?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

All this Gordon vs Harvin is pretty moot -- the two players have a vast gulf in between them right now in perceived value based on "what have you done for me lately" syndrome. Harvin is seen as a lower end WR2 and Gordon is a top-5 player overall.

The fact that a case can be made for Harvin over Gordon (whether you agree or disagree is irrelevant) is interesting though. Either Gordon is overvalued, Harvin is undervalued, or both.

Personally, I'd much rather pay WR20 prices for Harvin than invest early 1st round startup value in Gordon. That question isn't even close IMO.

 

[drfeelgood]

Guys get injured. Sometimes injuries happen in streaks. That doesn't mean they aren't random. Sometimes random is streaky. People are always so eager to label someone as "injury prone". How'd that work out with Fred Taylor? How'd that work out with Matt Stafford? I will say this: past injuries do not correlate with future injuries nearly as well as past failed drug tests correlate with future failed drug tests.

I don't think injuries, failed drug test, or even arrests can be predicted. I remember you traded Marshall for Harvin back in 2012, because you liked what you saw in Harvin, and Marshall you felt was too risky with his character issues. How'd that work out for you thus far? Harvin missed half the season in 2012, and most all of last year, meanwhile Marshall has grown up and had two great seasons.

I wasn't worried about Marshall's character concerns when I traded him away in 2012. Sheriff Goodell had me fooled when he came into the league talking about all the suspensions he was going to hand down, but by 2012 I'd learned that he was a fraud and I was a sucker for believing him. I was a big Brandon Marshall fan when I traded him away in 2012, that trade was all about the fact that Percy Harvin was equally productive and 4 years younger. He still is 4 years younger, too. Sucks that Harvin got hurt, but I don't regret that trade for a second- I still feel I'll more than recoup any lost value over the coming years as Marshall moves further and further beyond his 30th birthday while Harvin is still on the upslope of his career.

Also, for those who think arrests and the like can't be predicted... remember why Miami was so eager to trade away Marshall? Because he punched a lady in the face in a bar brawl in New York City. The people who believed Marshall would keep on getting into legal trouble were 100% right about him, they were just wrong about how Goodell would respond to his continued violations of the personal conduct policy. I thought that Marshall would struggle to keep his nose clean, and that Goodell would make an example out of him. Just because I was wrong about that second part doesn't mean I wasn't right about the first part.

Actually you did mention Marshall's baggage as a concern when someone said they wouldn't have traded away Marshall and a 1st like you did for Harvin. You also brought up that Miami couldn't wait to trade him away due to the NYC indicident, and someone correctly pointed out to you that Miami was already in the process of trading Marshall to the Bears before the bar room brawl in NYC happened. Someone also pointed out to you that those charges were dropped against Marshall, and witnesses said he did not hit the woman in the face, but Marshall's wife was hit in the face with a bottle while they were leaving.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Guys get injured. Sometimes injuries happen in streaks. That doesn't mean they aren't random. Sometimes random is streaky. People are always so eager to label someone as "injury prone". How'd that work out with Fred Taylor? How'd that work out with Matt Stafford? I will say this: past injuries do not correlate with future injuries nearly as well as past failed drug tests correlate with future failed drug tests.

I don't think injuries, failed drug test, or even arrests can be predicted. I remember you traded Marshall for Harvin back in 2012, because you liked what you saw in Harvin, and Marshall you felt was too risky with his character issues. How'd that work out for you thus far? Harvin missed half the season in 2012, and most all of last year, meanwhile Marshall has grown up and had two great seasons.

I wasn't worried about Marshall's character concerns when I traded him away in 2012. Sheriff Goodell had me fooled when he came into the league talking about all the suspensions he was going to hand down, but by 2012 I'd learned that he was a fraud and I was a sucker for believing him. I was a big Brandon Marshall fan when I traded him away in 2012, that trade was all about the fact that Percy Harvin was equally productive and 4 years younger. He still is 4 years younger, too. Sucks that Harvin got hurt, but I don't regret that trade for a second- I still feel I'll more than recoup any lost value over the coming years as Marshall moves further and further beyond his 30th birthday while Harvin is still on the upslope of his career.

Also, for those who think arrests and the like can't be predicted... remember why Miami was so eager to trade away Marshall? Because he punched a lady in the face in a bar brawl in New York City. The people who believed Marshall would keep on getting into legal trouble were 100% right about him, they were just wrong about how Goodell would respond to his continued violations of the personal conduct policy. I thought that Marshall would struggle to keep his nose clean, and that Goodell would make an example out of him. Just because I was wrong about that second part doesn't mean I wasn't right about the first part.

Actually you did mention Marshall's baggage as a concern when someone said they wouldn't have traded away Marshall and a 1st like you did for Harvin. You also brought up that Miami couldn't wait to trade him away due to the NYC indicident, and someone correctly pointed out to you that Miami was already in the process of trading Marshall to the Bears before the bar room brawl in NYC happened. Someone also pointed out to you that those charges were dropped against Marshall, and witnesses said he did not hit the woman in the face, but Marshall's wife was hit in the face with a bottle while they were leaving.

You're taking statements from one conversation and applying them to a completely different situation. In the conversation in question, I brought up the night club incident to refute a claim that Marshall had had everything under control since he'd received his Borderline Personality diagnosis. Regardless of the outcome (which all boiled down to a massive pile of "he said/she said"), the fact that Marshall was still having those nice little chats with the police suggested his headcase days weren't all under wraps just because he had a diagnosis in hand.

This doesn't mean I traded away Brandon Marshall because I was worried about his off-field drama. I really wasn't. In fact, in the league in question, I had just traded *FOR* Marshall after news of his drama broke. I had bought him that August for pick 7 and pick 15 from an owner who absolutely had to have David Wilson. I thought it was a steal. I had been chasing Harvin for years in that league (it gives a light bonus for kickoff returns, but enough to juice Harvin's value), however, and I traded Brandon Marshall for him because the Harvin owner finally caved and Marshall was the asking price. Had he asked for someone else, I would have been thrilled to pair up Harvin and Marshall in my starting WR corps. I had initially tried to do just that- trade negotiations opened with me offering Miles Austin and a package of multiple first-round picks. He's the one who wanted Marshall in the deal, not me.

Now, just because the drama wasn't motivating me to trade Marshall away doesn't mean that I could not and did not view Harvin's (at the time) relative lack of drama as a positive in the comparison between the two. You had two talented receivers. One had proven himself to be a headcase. The other had not. I no longer believed Goodell's tough talk about suspending all the headcases, but that doesn't mean, if all else is equal, I wouldn't rather my receivers be bastions of sanity and serenity instead of magnets for drama. I think Demaryius Thomas is much less of a headcase than Dez Bryant, and I think that's a positive in Demaryius' favor when comparing the two. It doesn't mean I'm worried about Dez, or that I wouldn't pay a king's ransom to acquire him in any and every league I play.

 

[beef]

I'd take Gordon over Julio. S'

 

[Holy Schneikes]

As for Harvin vs Gordon and the career arcs, how can you not factor in the length of the arc? Also, some of these assumptions seem different than I would make...

Using JUST PPG is sketchy at best, but lets' roll with that for a sec.

Using my leagues vanilla scoring (no PPR) ppg :

Harvin has gone from 23 to 19 to 13 to 12 to nothing (I'm not sure how others got higher rankings that that, maybe by removing the last early exit game, or maybe including return stats?)

Gordon has gone from 39 to 1.

Give the me the 39 to 1 to ?? trend over the 23 - 19 -13 -12 trend. That last bit is nice, but it's not Gordon-esque.

 

[Adam Harstad]

As for Harvin vs Gordon and the career arcs, how can you not factor in the length of the arc? Also, some of these assumptions seem different than I would make...

Using JUST PPG is sketchy at best, but lets' roll with that for a sec.

Using my leagues vanilla scoring (no PPR) ppg :

Harvin has gone from 23 to 19 to 13 to 12 to nothing (I'm not sure how others got higher rankings that that, maybe by removing the last early exit game, or maybe including return stats?)

Gordon has gone from 39 to 1.

Give the me the 39 to 1 to ?? trend over the 23 - 19 -13 -12 trend. That last bit is nice, but it's not Gordon-esque.

Others got higher rankings because others used PPR scoring, and Harvin was a PPR beast on pace for 110 receptions in 2012. Non-PPR scoring decidedly tilts the comparison in favor of Josh Gordon. Using FBGs standard scoring (1 per 10 rushing/receiving, 6 per TD, no PPR) and a minimum of 4 games played, Percy Harvin ranked 23rd, 20th, 10th, and 10th in PPG his first four seasons (and would rise to 6th in year 4 if you dropped the game where he got injured, which I typically do not do). Using the exact same criteria, Gordon went from 47th to 1st.

To me, 47 to 1 isn't an arc. It's one good year and one bad year. Percy Harvin has had four times as many "startable" (i.e. top-36) seasons. Harvin has had four times as many WR2+ (i.e. top-24) seasons. Harvin has had twice as many WR1 (i.e. top-12) seasons. He didn't have one huge season out of nowhere, he had a bunch of solid-to-strong years that finally culminated in a huge season. I think that's a safer career path to bet on than the "nothing one year, unstoppable stud the next", although that actually strikes me as an interesting topic for research this offseason. Is it better for a player to slowly improve until he reaches stud status, or to simply go directly from nobody to stud without any stops in between?

At the end of the day, to me, multiple great seasons make a guy a safer bet than one great season, even if the second guy's great season was better.

 

[Jercules]

As for Harvin vs Gordon and the career arcs, how can you not factor in the length of the arc? Also, some of these assumptions seem different than I would make...

Using JUST PPG is sketchy at best, but lets' roll with that for a sec.

Using my leagues vanilla scoring (no PPR) ppg :

Harvin has gone from 23 to 19 to 13 to 12 to nothing (I'm not sure how others got higher rankings that that, maybe by removing the last early exit game, or maybe including return stats?)

Gordon has gone from 39 to 1.

Give the me the 39 to 1 to ?? trend over the 23 - 19 -13 -12 trend. That last bit is nice, but it's not Gordon-esque.

Others got higher rankings because others used PPR scoring, and Harvin was a PPR beast on pace for 110 receptions in 2012. Non-PPR scoring decidedly tilts the comparison in favor of Josh Gordon. Using FBGs standard scoring (1 per 10 rushing/receiving, 6 per TD, no PPR) and a minimum of 4 games played, Percy Harvin ranked 23rd, 20th, 10th, and 10th in PPG his first four seasons (and would rise to 6th in year 4 if you dropped the game where he got injured, which I typically do not do). Using the exact same criteria, Gordon went from 47th to 1st.

To me, 47 to 1 isn't an arc. It's one good year and one bad year. Percy Harvin has had four times as many "startable" (i.e. top-36) seasons. Harvin has had four times as many WR2+ (i.e. top-24) seasons. Harvin has had twice as many WR1 (i.e. top-12) seasons. He didn't have one huge season out of nowhere, he had a bunch of solid-to-strong years that finally culminated in a huge season. I think that's a safer career path to bet on than the "nothing one year, unstoppable stud the next", although that actually strikes me as an interesting topic for research this offseason. Is it better for a player to slowly improve until he reaches stud status, or to simply go directly from nobody to stud without any stops in between?

At the end of the day, to me, multiple great seasons make a guy a safer bet than one great season, even if the second guy's great season was better.

Gordon came into the league with no pedigree whatsoever--if you want to hold his lackluster rookie year against him, fine, but it seems a little obtuse. He did enough to earn a feature role for his second year, which was fantasy magic: #1 despite only 9 TDs and no continuity at QB.

It's also not Gordon's fault he hasn't been around as long as Harvin (whom I love, but who's also never broken 1000 yards in a season). The guy who needed two tries to be amazing once is better than the guy who needed five tries to be 'startable' 3 or 4 times.

I don't do PPR though.

 

[JH56]

To me its pretty simple...Harvin is a very very good player...and a FF stud. But, would not, IMO ever lead the league in fantasy points. Gordon already has=with less games than all others. And the eyeball test tells me he COULD do it again. I don't think Harvin can.....

 

[Adam Harstad]

As for Harvin vs Gordon and the career arcs, how can you not factor in the length of the arc? Also, some of these assumptions seem different than I would make...

Using JUST PPG is sketchy at best, but lets' roll with that for a sec.

Using my leagues vanilla scoring (no PPR) ppg :

Harvin has gone from 23 to 19 to 13 to 12 to nothing (I'm not sure how others got higher rankings that that, maybe by removing the last early exit game, or maybe including return stats?)

Gordon has gone from 39 to 1.

Give the me the 39 to 1 to ?? trend over the 23 - 19 -13 -12 trend. That last bit is nice, but it's not Gordon-esque.

Others got higher rankings because others used PPR scoring, and Harvin was a PPR beast on pace for 110 receptions in 2012. Non-PPR scoring decidedly tilts the comparison in favor of Josh Gordon. Using FBGs standard scoring (1 per 10 rushing/receiving, 6 per TD, no PPR) and a minimum of 4 games played, Percy Harvin ranked 23rd, 20th, 10th, and 10th in PPG his first four seasons (and would rise to 6th in year 4 if you dropped the game where he got injured, which I typically do not do). Using the exact same criteria, Gordon went from 47th to 1st.

To me, 47 to 1 isn't an arc. It's one good year and one bad year. Percy Harvin has had four times as many "startable" (i.e. top-36) seasons. Harvin has had four times as many WR2+ (i.e. top-24) seasons. Harvin has had twice as many WR1 (i.e. top-12) seasons. He didn't have one huge season out of nowhere, he had a bunch of solid-to-strong years that finally culminated in a huge season. I think that's a safer career path to bet on than the "nothing one year, unstoppable stud the next", although that actually strikes me as an interesting topic for research this offseason. Is it better for a player to slowly improve until he reaches stud status, or to simply go directly from nobody to stud without any stops in between?

At the end of the day, to me, multiple great seasons make a guy a safer bet than one great season, even if the second guy's great season was better.

Gordon came into the league with no pedigree whatsoever--if you want to hold his lackluster rookie year against him, fine, but it seems a little obtuse. He did enough to earn a feature role for his second year, which was fantasy magic: #1 despite only 9 TDs and no continuity at QB.

It's also not Gordon's fault he hasn't been around as long as Harvin (whom I love, but who's also never broken 1000 yards in a season). The guy who needed two tries to be amazing once is better than the guy who needed five tries to be 'startable' 3 or 4 times.

I don't do PPR though.

No pedigree? Josh Gordon was a 2nd round pick in the supplemental draft, despite leaving not one but two different college teams after (alleged) drug issues. He had plenty of pedigree. I'm also not holding his rookie season against him- all considered, it was a pretty impressive season, and I always give rookies a pass for their first year, anyway. I'm just pointing out that players with multiple good seasons are typically safer bets than players with a single good season. The exact same could be said about Keenan Allen, who had a massive rookie year. The longer the track record, the safer the bet.

Incidentally, I can't believe so many people seemingly play in leagues that don't give points for a WR's rushing yards. They should look into getting that fixed. In my leagues, I got credit for each and every single yard gained during Percy Harvin's 2011 season- all 1300+ of them.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

As for Harvin vs Gordon and the career arcs, how can you not factor in the length of the arc? Also, some of these assumptions seem different than I would make...

Using JUST PPG is sketchy at best, but lets' roll with that for a sec.

Using my leagues vanilla scoring (no PPR) ppg :

Harvin has gone from 23 to 19 to 13 to 12 to nothing (I'm not sure how others got higher rankings that that, maybe by removing the last early exit game, or maybe including return stats?)

Gordon has gone from 39 to 1.

Give the me the 39 to 1 to ?? trend over the 23 - 19 -13 -12 trend. That last bit is nice, but it's not Gordon-esque.

Others got higher rankings because others used PPR scoring, and Harvin was a PPR beast on pace for 110 receptions in 2012. Non-PPR scoring decidedly tilts the comparison in favor of Josh Gordon. Using FBGs standard scoring (1 per 10 rushing/receiving, 6 per TD, no PPR) and a minimum of 4 games played, Percy Harvin ranked 23rd, 20th, 10th, and 10th in PPG his first four seasons (and would rise to 6th in year 4 if you dropped the game where he got injured, which I typically do not do). Using the exact same criteria, Gordon went from 47th to 1st.

To me, 47 to 1 isn't an arc. It's one good year and one bad year. Percy Harvin has had four times as many "startable" (i.e. top-36) seasons. Harvin has had four times as many WR2+ (i.e. top-24) seasons. Harvin has had twice as many WR1 (i.e. top-12) seasons. He didn't have one huge season out of nowhere, he had a bunch of solid-to-strong years that finally culminated in a huge season. I think that's a safer career path to bet on than the "nothing one year, unstoppable stud the next", although that actually strikes me as an interesting topic for research this offseason. Is it better for a player to slowly improve until he reaches stud status, or to simply go directly from nobody to stud without any stops in between?

At the end of the day, to me, multiple great seasons make a guy a safer bet than one great season, even if the second guy's great season was better.

Gordon's "nowhere" rookie season was almost exactly the same as Calvin Johnson's rookie season. It was better than Dez Bryant's rookie season. It was better than D Thomas rookie season (even before the injury). It was better than Vincent Jackson's rookie season. It was better than Alshon Jeffery's rookie season. It was way better than Marshall's rookie season. It was about the same as Fitzgerald's rookie season (who was rightfully regarded as one of the most NFL-ready rookies ever to step on the field).

That "bad" rookie year puts him in some pretty good company.

I'm not pretending to draw a linear line on Gordon's performance between those two years and say he's going to keep skyrocketing up, but I don't get this talk of "arcs" at all. Startable seasons is not what I am looking for in my tippy-top of dynasty players. Dominant seasons and projected dominant seasons are what I am looking for.

Saying a guy who has been in the league twice as long has more solid seasons than the other guy isn't all that revealing to me, especially at the beginning of their careers. All the guys I mentioned above had either 1 or 0 startable seasons after two years, and none of them were ranked #1 in that second season (actually, I didn't verify that, but it is a guess).

 

[Adam Harstad]

As for Harvin vs Gordon and the career arcs, how can you not factor in the length of the arc? Also, some of these assumptions seem different than I would make...

Using JUST PPG is sketchy at best, but lets' roll with that for a sec.

Using my leagues vanilla scoring (no PPR) ppg :

Harvin has gone from 23 to 19 to 13 to 12 to nothing (I'm not sure how others got higher rankings that that, maybe by removing the last early exit game, or maybe including return stats?)

Gordon has gone from 39 to 1.

Give the me the 39 to 1 to ?? trend over the 23 - 19 -13 -12 trend. That last bit is nice, but it's not Gordon-esque.

Others got higher rankings because others used PPR scoring, and Harvin was a PPR beast on pace for 110 receptions in 2012. Non-PPR scoring decidedly tilts the comparison in favor of Josh Gordon. Using FBGs standard scoring (1 per 10 rushing/receiving, 6 per TD, no PPR) and a minimum of 4 games played, Percy Harvin ranked 23rd, 20th, 10th, and 10th in PPG his first four seasons (and would rise to 6th in year 4 if you dropped the game where he got injured, which I typically do not do). Using the exact same criteria, Gordon went from 47th to 1st.

To me, 47 to 1 isn't an arc. It's one good year and one bad year. Percy Harvin has had four times as many "startable" (i.e. top-36) seasons. Harvin has had four times as many WR2+ (i.e. top-24) seasons. Harvin has had twice as many WR1 (i.e. top-12) seasons. He didn't have one huge season out of nowhere, he had a bunch of solid-to-strong years that finally culminated in a huge season. I think that's a safer career path to bet on than the "nothing one year, unstoppable stud the next", although that actually strikes me as an interesting topic for research this offseason. Is it better for a player to slowly improve until he reaches stud status, or to simply go directly from nobody to stud without any stops in between?

At the end of the day, to me, multiple great seasons make a guy a safer bet than one great season, even if the second guy's great season was better.

Gordon's "nowhere" rookie season was almost exactly the same as Calvin Johnson's rookie season. It was better than Dez Bryant's rookie season. It was better than D Thomas rookie season (even before the injury). It was better than Vincent Jackson's rookie season. It was better than Alshon Jeffery's rookie season. It was way better than Marshall's rookie season. It was about the same as Fitzgerald's rookie season (who was rightfully regarded as one of the most NFL-ready rookies ever to step on the field).

That "bad" rookie year puts him in some pretty good company.

I'm not pretending to draw a linear line on Gordon's performance between those two years and say he's going to keep skyrocketing up, but I don't get this talk of "arcs" at all. Startable seasons is not what I am looking for in my tippy-top of dynasty players. Dominant seasons and projected dominant seasons are what I am looking for.

Saying a guy who has been in the league twice as long has more solid seasons than the other guy isn't all that revealing to me, especially at the beginning of their careers. All the guys I mentioned above had either 1 or 0 startable seasons after two years, and none of them were ranked #1 in that second season (actually, I didn't verify that, but it is a guess).

To quote myself... "I'm also not holding his rookie season against him- all considered, it was a pretty impressive season, and I always give rookies a pass for their first year, anyway. I'm just pointing out that players with multiple good seasons are typically safer bets than players with a single good season. The exact same could be said about Keenan Allen, who had a massive rookie year. The longer the track record, the safer the bet."

It's not Josh Gordon's fault he doesn't have a long track record. He's done absolutely everything he could have possibly done with the opportunity he's been given. The guy has the 5th most receiving yards in his first two seasons in NFL history. It would be hard to imagine a receiver with as many games played having a better track record to this point than Josh Gordon has. At the same time, it's still a short track record. Ditto for Keenan Allen- I mean, realistically, how much more could Keenan Allen have done this year? How many rookie WRs in history have had a better start to their career than Keenan Allen? Not a lot. And yet, the fact that Allen has only had one great year is still a knock against him. 14 receivers have topped 1,000 yards as a rookie. Included on that list are Randy Moss, Anquan Boldin, and Marques Colston. Also included on that list are Bill Brooks (65/1131/8 as a rookie) and Michael Clayton (80/1193/7). Eddie Kennison had 924/9 as a rookie. The more good years a player has, the fewer guys like Brooks, Clayton, or Kennison show up on his list of comps, and the more guys like Moss, Boldin, and Colston show up to replace them.

Josh Gordon has the 2nd most fantasy points through age 22 in NFL history, which is amazing. Also in the top 10, we have Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin, Eric Metcalf, Koren Robinson, Kenny Britt, and David Boston. Not all of the guys on the list were busts, though- it also includes Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, and... Percy Harvin (5th most points through age 22).

Percy Harvin also has the 4th most fantasy points through age 24 in history. That list, as you can imagine, is much stronger. Nicks, Maclin, and Boston are all still hanging around at that point, but Metcalf/Robinson/Britt get replaced with John Jefferson, Isaac Bruce, Desean Jackson, and Andre Rison. The list of the top 10 guys through age 25 is even more impressive, still- other than Hakeem Nicks (jury still out, but not looking good) and John Jefferson (interesting backstory, but got traded after 3 years and battled injuries), there's not a bust on the list. Harvin didn't make that top-10 list because his season was cut short, but that's kind of the point- remaining at the top over a long stretch is basically a war of attrition. It's awesome that Josh Gordon has been so phenomenal through 2 seasons, but the list of guys who dominated through 2 seasons still has a lot of busts. The longer a player's track record, the safer of a bet he is to produce in the future, too.

 

[Phlash]

Josh Gordon just put up 1649 yards and 9 TDs on a team that blows in his second year after posting an impressive rookie season. We've all watched the guy play at this point. He's an absolute beast and has upside to hit 2k yards honestly. His situation, even though it looks bad on paper because of the talent around him, works in his favor. He's good enough to be the focal point on offense. He just has to hope they don't add too many weapons to take away chances for him. If he can stay the #1 target on that team, he's going to be a huge 1300-1600 yard guy every season.

Percy Harvin talent-wise is top 5 honestly. Dude can do everything. He's a good buy low, but you should not expect him to outproduce Josh Gordon in a season until he can prove his ability to stay healthy. Is there a risk drafting Gordon? Yeah, sure.

Honestly though, if you want a guy who might just put up the same numbers as Gordon next year for a low cost, I'd think about getting Justin Blackmon.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Great response.

Your point that a longer history of success gives extra assurance that a player will continue to be good is very well taken. No one denies Gordon carries more "risk" than guys with longer tenures (and shorter rap sheets )

I guess the question boils down to if that risk is worth it.

Personally, I'm looking for Calvin Johnson and Fitzgerald types. I'm willing to accept a Nicks or two along the way (though like you said jury is still out on Nicks).

But let's look at predictive power. You have already established that early net "solid season" success is a somewhat dicey indicator (though it gets better as you tack on more years). Now let's look at the list of guys who had absolutely dominant success early in their careers:

Here are the top 25 performance out of the first two years in the league since 1980:

1 Jerry Rice* 1986 24 1-16 SFO NFL 16 15 258.8 1 2 16 0 0 10 72 1 86 1570 15 22 Isaac Bruce 1995 23 2-33 STL NFL 16 16 257.8 0 0 0 0 0 3 17 0 119 1781 13 23 Mark Clayton 1984 23 8-223 MIA NFL 15 15 246.4 0 1 0 0 1 3 35 0 73 1389 18 24 Randy Moss 1998 21 1-21 MIN NFL 16 11 235.7 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 69 1313 17 25 Josh Gordon 2013 22 2-1 CLE NFL 14 14 227.4 0 0 0 0 0 5 88 0 87 1646 9 06 Mike Quick 1983 24 1-20 PHI NFL 16 16 217.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 69 1409 13 17 Sterling Sharpe 1989 24 1-7 GNB NFL 16 16 215.8 0 0 0 0 0 2 25 0 90 1423 12 18 Randy Moss 1999 22 1-21 MIN NFL 16 16 213.7 1 1 27 1 0 4 43 0 80 1413 11 39 Victor Cruz 2011 25 NYG NFL 16 7 206.9 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 82 1536 9 110 Larry Fitzgerald 2005 22 1-3 ARI NFL 16 16 205.0 0 0 0 0 0 8 41 0 103 1409 10 011 Calvin Johnson 2008 23 1-2 DET NFL 16 16 204.0 0 0 0 0 0 3 -1 0 78 1331 12 312 A.J. Green 2012 24 1-4 CIN NFL 16 16 202.8 0 0 0 0 0 4 38 0 97 1350 11 213 Torry Holt 2000 24 1-6 STL NFL 16 15 198.2 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 0 82 1635 6 214 Alshon Jeffery 2013 23 2-45 CHI NFL 16 14 194.6 0 0 0 0 0 16 105 0 89 1421 7 315 Marcus Robinson 1999 24 4-108 CHI NFL 16 11 194.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 84 1400 9 016 Mike Wallace 2010 24 3-84 PIT NFL 16 16 188.6 0 0 0 0 0 5 39 0 60 1257 10 117 Louis Lipps 1985 23 1-23 PIT NFL 16 16 188.0 0 0 0 0 0 2 16 1 59 1134 12 518 DeSean Jackson 2009 23 2-49 PHI NFL 15 15 186.3 0 0 0 0 0 11 137 1 62 1156 9 319 Anthony Miller 1989 24 1-15 SDG NFL 16 16 186.3 0 0 0 0 0 4 21 0 75 1252 10 120 Marques Colston 2007 24 7-252 NOR NFL 16 14 185.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 98 1202 11 1Games Passing Rushing Receiving Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS FantPt Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Fmb21 Anquan Boldin 2003 23 2-54 ARI NFL 16 16 184.7 0 1 0 0 1 5 40 0 101 1377 8 322 Julio Jones 2012 23 1-6 ATL NFL 16 15 182.8 0 0 0 0 0 6 30 0 79 1198 10 023 Germane Crowell 1999 23 2-50 DET NFL 16 15 180.6 0 0 0 0 0 5 38 0 81 1338 7 124 Andre Rison 1990 23 1-22 ATL NFL 16 15 178.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 82 1208 10 225 Brandon Marshall 2007 23 4-119 DEN NFL 16 16 177.2 0 0 0 0 0 5 57 0 102 1325 7 3How many busts are on that list? Are there really ANY busts on that list other than guys who gt seriously hurt (Robinson, Crowell). Guys who have flashed dominance at that level, that early in their careers seems to be one of the best indicators for future success I have ever seen. WAY better than net stats by 22 or 24.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Great response.

Your point that a longer history of success gives extra assurance that a player will continue to be good is very well taken. No one denies Gordon carries more "risk" than guys with longer tenures (and shorter rap sheets )

I guess the question boils down to if that risk is worth it.

Personally, I'm looking for Calvin Johnson and Fitzgerald types. I'm willing to accept a Nicks or two along the way (though like you said jury is still out on Nicks).

But let's look at predictive power. You have already established that early net "solid season" success is a somewhat dicey indicator (though it gets better as you tack on more years). Now let's look at the list of guys who had absolutely dominant success early in their careers:

Here are the top 25 performance out of the first two years in the league since 1980:

1 Jerry Rice* 1986 24 1-16 SFO NFL 16 15 258.8 1 2 16 0 0 10 72 1 86 1570 15 22 Isaac Bruce 1995 23 2-33 STL NFL 16 16 257.8 0 0 0 0 0 3 17 0 119 1781 13 23 Mark Clayton 1984 23 8-223 MIA NFL 15 15 246.4 0 1 0 0 1 3 35 0 73 1389 18 24 Randy Moss 1998 21 1-21 MIN NFL 16 11 235.7 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 69 1313 17 25 Josh Gordon 2013 22 2-1 CLE NFL 14 14 227.4 0 0 0 0 0 5 88 0 87 1646 9 06 Mike Quick 1983 24 1-20 PHI NFL 16 16 217.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 69 1409 13 17 Sterling Sharpe 1989 24 1-7 GNB NFL 16 16 215.8 0 0 0 0 0 2 25 0 90 1423 12 18 Randy Moss 1999 22 1-21 MIN NFL 16 16 213.7 1 1 27 1 0 4 43 0 80 1413 11 39 Victor Cruz 2011 25 NYG NFL 16 7 206.9 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 82 1536 9 110 Larry Fitzgerald 2005 22 1-3 ARI NFL 16 16 205.0 0 0 0 0 0 8 41 0 103 1409 10 011 Calvin Johnson 2008 23 1-2 DET NFL 16 16 204.0 0 0 0 0 0 3 -1 0 78 1331 12 312 A.J. Green 2012 24 1-4 CIN NFL 16 16 202.8 0 0 0 0 0 4 38 0 97 1350 11 213 Torry Holt 2000 24 1-6 STL NFL 16 15 198.2 0 0 0 0 0 2 7 0 82 1635 6 214 Alshon Jeffery 2013 23 2-45 CHI NFL 16 14 194.6 0 0 0 0 0 16 105 0 89 1421 7 315 Marcus Robinson 1999 24 4-108 CHI NFL 16 11 194.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 84 1400 9 016 Mike Wallace 2010 24 3-84 PIT NFL 16 16 188.6 0 0 0 0 0 5 39 0 60 1257 10 117 Louis Lipps 1985 23 1-23 PIT NFL 16 16 188.0 0 0 0 0 0 2 16 1 59 1134 12 518 DeSean Jackson 2009 23 2-49 PHI NFL 15 15 186.3 0 0 0 0 0 11 137 1 62 1156 9 319 Anthony Miller 1989 24 1-15 SDG NFL 16 16 186.3 0 0 0 0 0 4 21 0 75 1252 10 120 Marques Colston 2007 24 7-252 NOR NFL 16 14 185.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 98 1202 11 1Games Passing Rushing Receiving Rk Player Year Age Draft Tm Lg G GS FantPt Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Fmb21 Anquan Boldin 2003 23 2-54 ARI NFL 16 16 184.7 0 1 0 0 1 5 40 0 101 1377 8 322 Julio Jones 2012 23 1-6 ATL NFL 16 15 182.8 0 0 0 0 0 6 30 0 79 1198 10 023 Germane Crowell 1999 23 2-50 DET NFL 16 15 180.6 0 0 0 0 0 5 38 0 81 1338 7 124 Andre Rison 1990 23 1-22 ATL NFL 16 15 178.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 82 1208 10 225 Brandon Marshall 2007 23 4-119 DEN NFL 16 16 177.2 0 0 0 0 0 5 57 0 102 1325 7 3How many busts are on that list? Are there really ANY busts on that list other than guys who gt seriously hurt (Robinson, Crowell). Guys who have flashed dominance at that level, that early in their careers seems to be one of the best indicators for future success I have ever seen. WAY better than net stats by 22 or 24.

We can come up with a bunch of indicators for either player. The list of guys who opened their career with three straight top-24 finishes is going to be similarly impressive. At the end of the day, I think a guy who combined a dominant fantasy stretch with a long history of very solid production leading up to it is going to be a safer bet than a guy who combined a dominant stretch with no history at all of very solid production leading up to it. Additional track record is, in all cases, a positive. We can discuss whether Gordon's potential payoff is greater than Harvin's (I would say yes in standard and no in PPR), and we can discuss how Gordon's suspension risk compares to Harvin's injury risk (I'd rather bet on Harvin staying healthy than Gordon staying clean). To me, though, the Harvin "career arc" (23rd, 20th, 10th, 2nd at time of injury) seems clearly better than the Gordon "career arc" (47th, 1st). As I said, it'll be an interesting topic for further study this offseason.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Not really. Guys like Torrey Smith, Fred Barnett, Galloway, Keyshawn, etc start to slip in. Nobody is arguing Torrey Smith belongs in the upper tier of dynasty receivers.

The list IS impressive, but it is no where near AS impressive. Most of my list is filled with HOFers and HOF candidates. The three straight list has some REALLY good players, but it is mixed with soem good but not great players. Most of the really good players also happen to have at least one dominant season in there.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Not really. Guys like Torrey Smith, Fred Barnett, Galloway, Keyshawn, etc start to slip in. Nobody is arguing Torrey Smith belongs in the upper tier of dynasty receivers.

The list IS impressive, but it is no where near AS impressive. Most of my list is filled with HOFers and HOF candidates. The three straight list has some REALLY good players, but it is mixed with soem good but not great players. Most of the really good players also happen to have at least one dominant season in there.

And guys like Torrey, Barnett, Galloway, and Keyshawn are worse than guys like Crowell, Miller, DJax, Lipps, Wallace, Robinson, Cruz, and Quick because... how again, exactly? List quality looks pretty comparable to me...

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Not really. Guys like Torrey Smith, Fred Barnett, Galloway, Keyshawn, etc start to slip in. Nobody is arguing Torrey Smith belongs in the upper tier of dynasty receivers.

The list IS impressive, but it is no where near AS impressive. Most of my list is filled with HOFers and HOF candidates. The three straight list has some REALLY good players, but it is mixed with soem good but not great players. Most of the really good players also happen to have at least one dominant season in there.

And guys like Torrey, Barnett, Galloway, and Keyshawn are worse than guys like Crowell, Miller, DJax, Lipps, Wallace, Robinson, Cruz, and Quick because... how again, exactly? List quality looks pretty comparable to me...

Well, you are picking the worst out of 25 guys, mostly near the bottom.

Your top ten include the guys I mentioned. My top ten include all guys who have had or will have HOF votes.

Here's the shorter list, and their HOF possibilities.

Rice - duh

Bruce - maybe

Clayton - maybe

Moss - probably

Gordon - the guy in question

Quick - doubtful, but nominated

Sharpe - maybe

Cruz - we'll see

Fitz - probably

Calvin -probably

If you don't find that list more impressive than a list that includes Torrey Smith (who I really like - sorry Torrey), we'll just have to agree to disagree.

In my mind the big performer list is a considerably better indicator than the fast start list. Maybe Gordon will be the first to fail, he certainly could. But as it is, it may as well be a list of "guys who you want in their prime at all costs". The good enough to make some arbitrary cut off every year for X years IS fairly telling, and I think it bodes very well for continued success in that range (at least). But it may or may not find you the next true WR stud.

 

[Buffaloes]

Kyle Shanahan is the new OC. He has a system that's very friendly to a team's #1 WR. I think that's a good signing for Gordon. There are still plenty of unsettled pieces there, but it at least looks like a sort of or somewhat legitimate hire by the Browns. If anything I can see a lot of garbage time points for Gordon. Interested to see how the backfield (QB & RB) shake out this offseason.

PS, this signing pretty much solidifies that I'd take Gordon over Joey Galloway and Louis Lipps in pretty much every format next year.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Seems like a bold move on his part......perhaps a small sign of dedication......hoping.....

http://msn.foxsports.com/ohio/story/josh-gordon-s-must-see-tattoo-021014?cmpid=msn%3Afoxsports%3Aansfox11

 

[spider321]

Well, you are picking the worst out of 25 guys, mostly near the bottom.


Your top ten include the guys I mentioned. My top ten include all guys who have had or will have HOF votes.

Here's the shorter list, and their HOF possibilities.

Rice - duh

Bruce - maybe

Clayton - maybe

Moss - Definitely

Gordon - the guy in question

Quick - doubtful, but nominated

Sharpe - maybe

Cruz - we'll see

Fitz - probably

Calvin - Definitely

FTFY

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Kyle Shanahan is the new OC. He has a system that's very friendly to a team's #1 WR. I think that's a good signing for Gordon. There are still plenty of unsettled pieces there, but it at least looks like a sort of or somewhat legitimate hire by the Browns. If anything I can see a lot of garbage time points for Gordon. Interested to see how the backfield (QB & RB) shake out this offseason.

PS, this signing pretty much solidifies that I'd take Gordon over Joey Galloway and Louis Lipps in pretty much every format next year.

I really think that this bears more discussion. What is Shanny Jr. going to do to with/for Gordon?

Gordon's value will be through the roof this year - I have been a fan of the guy since his rookie year (I mean all you had to do was see him play) - but there is so much going on in Cleveland, it seems to be imploding. I really liked him in that system with Turner.

Is this going to be more awesomeness or is he going to be overpriced when all is said and done?

 

[Tau837]

Not really. Guys like Torrey Smith, Fred Barnett, Galloway, Keyshawn, etc start to slip in. Nobody is arguing Torrey Smith belongs in the upper tier of dynasty receivers.

The list IS impressive, but it is no where near AS impressive. Most of my list is filled with HOFers and HOF candidates. The three straight list has some REALLY good players, but it is mixed with soem good but not great players. Most of the really good players also happen to have at least one dominant season in there.

And guys like Torrey, Barnett, Galloway, and Keyshawn are worse than guys like Crowell, Miller, DJax, Lipps, Wallace, Robinson, Cruz, and Quick because... how again, exactly? List quality looks pretty comparable to me...

Well, you are picking the worst out of 25 guys, mostly near the bottom.

Your top ten include the guys I mentioned. My top ten include all guys who have had or will have HOF votes.

Here's the shorter list, and their HOF possibilities.

Rice - duh

Bruce - maybe

Clayton - maybe

Moss - probably

Gordon - the guy in question

Quick - doubtful, but nominated

Sharpe - maybe

Cruz - we'll see

Fitz - probably

Calvin -probably

If you don't find that list more impressive than a list that includes Torrey Smith (who I really like - sorry Torrey), we'll just have to agree to disagree.

In my mind the big performer list is a considerably better indicator than the fast start list. Maybe Gordon will be the first to fail, he certainly could. But as it is, it may as well be a list of "guys who you want in their prime at all costs". The good enough to make some arbitrary cut off every year for X years IS fairly telling, and I think it bodes very well for continued success in that range (at least). But it may or may not find you the next true WR stud.

Odd commentary on HOF possibilities.

Rice is in.

Moss is a lock.

Calvin and Fitz are virtual locks.

Bruce has a good chance, and I expect he will make it.

Quick, Sharpe, and Clayton have no chance.

At this stage, there is no reason to believe Cruz or Gordon has a shot... way too premature.

Having said that, I don't see what it really has to do with the discussion at hand... I certainly don't view your list as predictive.

 

[xTifa]

I guess I'm confused because people are saying he gets all of his yards from his qbs staring him down?? If you watched you would know that Campbell is a check down machine and hoyer doesn't have a great arm. Weedle is the only "quarterback" who would lock in on josh Gordon for every pass. Having said that, I don't think Gordon is over rated...he may not have more yards next year, but he will certainly have more TDs

 

[humpback]

Gordon shows off his ink

Has some interesting "plant life" in there.

 

[cstu]

Gordon shows off his ink

Has some interesting "plant life" in there.

Nick 3 minutes ago0
3
If I ever got a tattoo, it would be of something useful. Like my anniversary date.

 

[karmarooster]

More importantly, those all-white unis with the grey and neon orange numbers are kinda cool. But who are they playing, the Oregon ducks??

I wonder if the NFL will fine him for getting some leafy greens on his back.

 

[steveski]

Question about Gordon and his potential suspension for another violation. Is there a limit on that rule? So if he goes a whole year without another violation, does he go back to Strike 1 or something? Or is he forever 1 strike away from a 1 year suspension?

In a dynasty startup where I really would like to take him at the 3 spot assuming Calvin and Green are gone, but it's tough to do if I know he will ALWAYS be 1 slip-up away. Makes Dez, Demaryius or McCoy look more enticing.

 

[Ruffrodys05]

Question about Gordon and his potential suspension for another violation. Is there a limit on that rule? So if he goes a whole year without another violation, does he go back to Strike 1 or something? Or is he forever 1 strike away from a 1 year suspension?

In a dynasty startup where I really would like to take him at the 3 spot assuming Calvin and Green are gone, but it's tough to do if I know he will ALWAYS be 1 slip-up away. Makes Dez, Demaryius or McCoy look more enticing.

This is my understanding. No statute of limitations, no rollbacks. He could go 5 years with no incident, but still end up with a year suspension if he messes up in the future.

At this point in time I'm looking to acquire him in every league I don't currently own him. I've been bitten before (Blackmon last year...) but I'm not worrying about any potential suspension with Gordon. His upside in 2014 is just too huge to pass up.....at least for me.

 

[ghostguy123]

Still wondering why the NFL bans weed.

Seems I would prefer my players to chill with some wacky tobacky instead of drinking and doing crazy and dangerous stuff.

 

[matuski]

The chance of Crystal Harvin getting injured are WAY higher than of Gordon getting suspended. Fred Taylor laughs at Percy Harvin.

This is apropos. Jimmy Smith is looking in the mirror at Gordon.

 

[Ernol]

Question about Gordon and his potential suspension for another violation. Is there a limit on that rule? So if he goes a whole year without another violation, does he go back to Strike 1 or something? Or is he forever 1 strike away from a 1 year suspension?

In a dynasty startup where I really would like to take him at the 3 spot assuming Calvin and Green are gone, but it's tough to do if I know he will ALWAYS be 1 slip-up away. Makes Dez, Demaryius or McCoy look more enticing.

Is he or is he not on his last strike?

This blog article questions that:

http://www.dawgsbynature.com/2013/10/29/5041534/josh-gordon-and-the-mythical-season-long-ban

 

[simey]

Still wondering why the NFL bans weed.

Seems I would prefer my players to chill with some wacky tobacky instead of drinking and doing crazy and dangerous stuff.

His last suspension was because of codeine that he said was in his strep throat medicine. I think the NFL believed it was unintentional, and that is why he only got a 2 game suspension.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Question about Gordon and his potential suspension for another violation. Is there a limit on that rule? So if he goes a whole year without another violation, does he go back to Strike 1 or something? Or is he forever 1 strike away from a 1 year suspension?

In a dynasty startup where I really would like to take him at the 3 spot assuming Calvin and Green are gone, but it's tough to do if I know he will ALWAYS be 1 slip-up away. Makes Dez, Demaryius or McCoy look more enticing.

We don't know. If he's in stage three, yeah, he's there forever, but we have no way of knowing that. We can guess, and last year's suspension initially being four games suggests that he was then in stage two, and that failed test put him in stage three -- but that's still just a guess.

Even taking the suspension risk out of the equation entirely, I'd have a hard time taking Gordon over Dez or DT, both of whom are less risky in other ways also -- longer track record and more stable situation. The potential few extra years of Gordon on the tail end don't make up for those risks, let alone the massive risk of suspension if he is indeed in stage three. If I'm at 1.03, I'm trying like crazy to trade down a few spots -- whoever grabs the last of the Calvin, AJG, Dez, Julio, DT tier is getting the best value.

 

[steveski]

Question about Gordon and his potential suspension for another violation. Is there a limit on that rule? So if he goes a whole year without another violation, does he go back to Strike 1 or something? Or is he forever 1 strike away from a 1 year suspension?

In a dynasty startup where I really would like to take him at the 3 spot assuming Calvin and Green are gone, but it's tough to do if I know he will ALWAYS be 1 slip-up away. Makes Dez, Demaryius or McCoy look more enticing.

We don't know. If he's in stage three, yeah, he's there forever, but we have no way of knowing that. We can guess, and last year's suspension initially being four games suggests that he was then in stage two, and that failed test put him in stage three -- but that's still just a guess.

Even taking the suspension risk out of the equation entirely, I'd have a hard time taking Gordon over Dez or DT, both of whom are less risky in other ways also -- longer track record and more stable situation. The potential few extra years of Gordon on the tail end don't make up for those risks, let alone the massive risk of suspension if he is indeed in stage three. If I'm at 1.03, I'm trying like crazy to trade down a few spots -- whoever grabs the last of the Calvin, AJG, Dez, Julio, DT tier is getting the best value.

Thanks, yeah I'm thinking about trading down. I really don't like that 3 spot.

 

[matttyl]

Question about Gordon and his potential suspension for another violation. Is there a limit on that rule? So if he goes a whole year without another violation, does he go back to Strike 1 or something? Or is he forever 1 strike away from a 1 year suspension?

In a dynasty startup where I really would like to take him at the 3 spot assuming Calvin and Green are gone, but it's tough to do if I know he will ALWAYS be 1 slip-up away. Makes Dez, Demaryius or McCoy look more enticing.

We don't know. If he's in stage three, yeah, he's there forever, but we have no way of knowing that. We can guess, and last year's suspension initially being four games suggests that he was then in stage two, and that failed test put him in stage three -- but that's still just a guess.

Even taking the suspension risk out of the equation entirely, I'd have a hard time taking Gordon over Dez or DT, both of whom are less risky in other ways also -- longer track record and more stable situation. The potential few extra years of Gordon on the tail end don't make up for those risks, let alone the massive risk of suspension if he is indeed in stage three. If I'm at 1.03, I'm trying like crazy to trade down a few spots -- whoever grabs the last of the Calvin, AJG, Dez, Julio, DT tier is getting the best value.

Thanks, yeah I'm thinking about trading down. I really don't like that 3 spot.

Or take Charles or McCoy there and hope that a run on RBs happens so that you can still land a solid WR in the 2nd round.

 

[duaneok66]

not originally a fan of Gordon's - but there was a good interview with him on ESPN podcast Football Today (3/27/14). Usually I avoid player interviews because you usually get clichéd answers, but I enjoyed that piece.

 

[ghostguy123]

Still wondering why the NFL bans weed.

Seems I would prefer my players to chill with some wacky tobacky instead of drinking and doing crazy and dangerous stuff.

His last suspension was because of codeine that he said was in his strep throat medicine. I think the NFL believed it was unintentional, and that is why he only got a 2 game suspension.

Two things.

One, I am aware of what was said that he did, but we don't really know because they don't have to tell the truth.

Two, was just making a general comment about players not smoking weed and ending up using other crap.

 

[dickey moe]

Sometimes it pays to be risk-averse.

 

[bumpman]

I have long felt the FF community fails to understand the risks of being in the final phase of the NFL's substance abuse program. As far as I know, there is no precedent for a player coming back from a year-long or indefinite substance abuse suspension and succeeding. I have been burned multiple times in the twenty years I have been playing FF. Perhaps there just hasn't been a recent enough example for folks to understand that when you get into that last phase, it is really hard to succeed. I would never spend a first round pick in a dynasty startup on a guy in the last phase. I realize there is some ambiguity about whether Gordon is in that phase, but there is none when it comes to Blackmon and I still see folks rating him highly. I wouldn't touch Blackmon in the first three rounds of a dynasty startup.

I guess there are now a couple of very good examples of how risky these players are, no matter how talented. Teams can't afford to trust a player in phase 3.

 

[Sabertooth]

No just don't think we've seen the last of Gordon's shenanigans. Both those other guys are young and have plenty of tread on the tires.

Gordon is def ahead of them two guy esp in a dynasty.

No, not really. He could miss a whole season fully healthy soon. Look at Blackmon. Uber talented. Didn't help you win much though this year did he?

Had a guy like this post last night. Went back to see what I wrote. Realized I'd nailed it. These character risks are risks for a reason. It's no less risky than a medical risk. Gordon is an idiot.