[DYNASTY] Matt Forte (2 Viewers)

[EBF]

That's debatable. Rice's vertical leap was poor at the combine, but he bounced back with an elite 39.5" jump at his pro day. He jumped 9'11" in the broad jump at the combine and 10'1" at his pro day. Both marks are better than Forte's 9'10" combine jump despite the fact that Rice is 5.3" shorter with much shorter legs (a huge natural handicap in this drill). He also ran 4.42 in the 40 and 1.47 in the 10. Both very good times.

It's a moot point really. I wouldn't keep bringing up Forte's lack of elite pedigree and measurables if his performance on the football field contradicted those indicators of mediocrity, but it hasn't. There's nothing objective about him that suggests anything other than mediocrity. That's the whole point of this thread.

 

[Football Jones]

Combine numbers have their place like any tool, but far & away the best indicator of success is a player's performance on the field. That's not a brilliant statement, but you would be surprised how many times people get sucked in by Combine numbers.

The best talent evaluators know when to give credence to a combine number & when not to, & it's not the same for every player. There's tons of dynamics that may or may not apply depending on the player. Everything from their size to their school & everything in-between.

It makes for a fascinating study, which is the reason so many people enjoy the evaluation process.

 

[Knobs]

Combine numbers have their place like any tool, but far & away the best indicator of success is a player's performance on the field.

And his field performance has sucked. Royally.

 

[Instinctive]

Combine numbers have their place like any tool, but far & away the best indicator of success is a player's performance on the field.

And his field performance has sucked. Royally.

 

[gianmarco]

17 carries for 49 yds. 2.8 ypc. Against the Rams.

Oh, and Bell getting more involved with 9 carries so far.

 

[Righetti]

DETROIT -- After a season of wondering what was wrong with Matt Forte, the Bears finally admitted injuries played a role in his mediocre 2009 campaign. "I think [his health] had something to do with it," offensive coordinator Ron Turner said. "I don't think coming into it he was as healthy as he was a year ago. I think as the season wore on, that improved, and it showed." Forte dealt with hamstring problems in the offseason, then apparently hurt his MCL early in the season. "I think there was a drop-off [after the MCL injury], definitely," Turner said. "I don't think he had the acceleration or the burst we normally see from him. Yeah, I definitely had an affect." "It's a factor anytime you play football, everybody has injuries," Forte said in the postgame locker room. "That's not an excuse as to why the running game struggled, or we had an unproductive season. But everybody has to deal with injuries." Forte finished with 929 rushing yards and 471 receiving yards. Respectable numbers, but expect much better results in 2010 if Forte is able to stay healthy

 

[SSOG]

DETROIT -- After a season of wondering what was wrong with Matt Forte, the Bears finally admitted injuries played a role in his mediocre 2009 campaign. "I think [his health] had something to do with it," offensive coordinator Ron Turner said. "I don't think coming into it he was as healthy as he was a year ago. I think as the season wore on, that improved, and it showed." Forte dealt with hamstring problems in the offseason, then apparently hurt his MCL early in the season. "I think there was a drop-off [after the MCL injury], definitely," Turner said. "I don't think he had the acceleration or the burst we normally see from him. Yeah, I definitely had an affect." "It's a factor anytime you play football, everybody has injuries," Forte said in the postgame locker room. "That's not an excuse as to why the running game struggled, or we had an unproductive season. But everybody has to deal with injuries." Forte finished with 929 rushing yards and 471 receiving yards. Respectable numbers, but expect much better results in 2010 if Forte is able to stay healthy

Never fails. Whenever an NFL player who was perceived as good before the season winds up underperforming expectations, you get an article after the year is over about how it's secretly all due to injury. Tom Brady's timing is off? He has broken ribs. Brett Favre throws a bazillion INTs down the stretch with the Jets? Shoulder injury. Forte averages 3.6 ypc? Hamstring/MCL injury.I'm not saying that Forte wasn't limited by injury- nobody knows for sure except for the Bears and Forte. I'm just saying that (1) this is a blatant spin-job by the Bears and (2) everyone in the NFL deals with injury, you just don't hear anything about it unless the player plays poorly. Where are the articles talking about how Frank Gore was limited by injury? Where are the articles about Jonathan Stewart nursing a sore Achilles all season? Where are the articles about how Kellen Winslow's knees are still shot and he'll never be 100%?I also love the fact that every one of these excuse articles is legally obligated to include some variation of the phrase "I'm not using it as an excuse, everyone has injuries".

 

[Instinctive]

DETROIT -- After a season of wondering what was wrong with Matt Forte, the Bears finally admitted injuries played a role in his mediocre 2009 campaign. "I think [his health] had something to do with it," offensive coordinator Ron Turner said. "I don't think coming into it he was as healthy as he was a year ago. I think as the season wore on, that improved, and it showed." Forte dealt with hamstring problems in the offseason, then apparently hurt his MCL early in the season. "I think there was a drop-off [after the MCL injury], definitely," Turner said. "I don't think he had the acceleration or the burst we normally see from him. Yeah, I definitely had an affect." "It's a factor anytime you play football, everybody has injuries," Forte said in the postgame locker room. "That's not an excuse as to why the running game struggled, or we had an unproductive season. But everybody has to deal with injuries." Forte finished with 929 rushing yards and 471 receiving yards. Respectable numbers, but expect much better results in 2010 if Forte is able to stay healthy

Never fails. Whenever an NFL player who was perceived as good before the season winds up underperforming expectations, you get an article after the year is over about how it's secretly all due to injury. Tom Brady's timing is off? He has broken ribs. Brett Favre throws a bazillion INTs down the stretch with the Jets? Shoulder injury. Forte averages 3.6 ypc? Hamstring/MCL injury.I'm not saying that Forte wasn't limited by injury- nobody knows for sure except for the Bears and Forte. I'm just saying that (1) this is a blatant spin-job by the Bears and (2) everyone in the NFL deals with injury, you just don't hear anything about it unless the player plays poorly. Where are the articles talking about how Frank Gore was limited by injury? Where are the articles about Jonathan Stewart nursing a sore Achilles all season? Where are the articles about how Kellen Winslow's knees are still shot and he'll never be 100%?I also love the fact that every one of these excuse articles is legally obligated to include some variation of the phrase "I'm not using it as an excuse, everyone has injuries".

I was gonna say that exactly. What about Steven Jackson dealing with a herniated disk in his back all season? Man, he only had what, like ELEVEN 100 yard games? Oh, and he actually showed up on the injury report too. I don't recall Forte being on any injury report...sounds like a crock of phooey to me.

 

[EBF]

As expected...

His touches dropped.

His TD totals dropped.

His crappy YPC remained crappy.

Matt Forte, YOU ARE WHO WE THOUGHT YOU WERE!

 

[TWP]

DETROIT -- After a season of wondering what was wrong with Matt Forte, the Bears finally admitted injuries played a role in his mediocre 2009 campaign. "I think [his health] had something to do with it," offensive coordinator Ron Turner said. "I don't think coming into it he was as healthy as he was a year ago. I think as the season wore on, that improved, and it showed." Forte dealt with hamstring problems in the offseason, then apparently hurt his MCL early in the season. "I think there was a drop-off [after the MCL injury], definitely," Turner said. "I don't think he had the acceleration or the burst we normally see from him. Yeah, I definitely had an affect." "It's a factor anytime you play football, everybody has injuries," Forte said in the postgame locker room. "That's not an excuse as to why the running game struggled, or we had an unproductive season. But everybody has to deal with injuries." Forte finished with 929 rushing yards and 471 receiving yards. Respectable numbers, but expect much better results in 2010 if Forte is able to stay healthy

Never fails. Whenever an NFL player who was perceived as good before the season winds up underperforming expectations, you get an article after the year is over about how it's secretly all due to injury. Tom Brady's timing is off? He has broken ribs. Brett Favre throws a bazillion INTs down the stretch with the Jets? Shoulder injury. Forte averages 3.6 ypc? Hamstring/MCL injury.I'm not saying that Forte wasn't limited by injury- nobody knows for sure except for the Bears and Forte. I'm just saying that (1) this is a blatant spin-job by the Bears and (2) everyone in the NFL deals with injury, you just don't hear anything about it unless the player plays poorly. Where are the articles talking about how Frank Gore was limited by injury? Where are the articles about Jonathan Stewart nursing a sore Achilles all season? Where are the articles about how Kellen Winslow's knees are still shot and he'll never be 100%?I also love the fact that every one of these excuse articles is legally obligated to include some variation of the phrase "I'm not using it as an excuse, everyone has injuries".

I was gonna say that exactly. What about Steven Jackson dealing with a herniated disk in his back all season? Man, he only had what, like ELEVEN 100 yard games? Oh, and he actually showed up on the injury report too. I don't recall Forte being on any injury report...sounds like a crock of phooey to me.

Although to some extent I agree with this (especially when crappy performance was expected months before the season), to some extent poor performance IS often triggered by hidden injuries (especially for players with track records of good results). For example, everyone knew that when Pedro Martinez would get roughed up a couple times in a row that it was very likely that he was hurt. He never wanted to go on the DL and he was unhittable when healthy, so you just knew that he must be hurt if he was getting hit hard. Dont think it applies in the Forte case, but I also dont think you shoudl be QUITE so cynical in general...

 

[switz]

to some extent poor performance IS often triggered by hidden injuries (especially for players with track records of good results). Dont think it applies in the Forte case, but I also dont think you shoudl be QUITE so cynical in general...

It doesn't apply in Forte's case like you said, because he doesn't have a track records of good results. He had a track record of tremendous number of touches, but not doing much per opportunity.As many of us were saying, his opportunities would go down, simply because he wasn't doing enough to merit those touches.

 

[Football Jones]

There likely won't be a better bargain among RBs in 2010 than Matt Forte. It's really a pretty easy prediction, IMO.

 

[TWP]

to some extent poor performance IS often triggered by hidden injuries (especially for players with track records of good results). Dont think it applies in the Forte case, but I also dont think you shoudl be QUITE so cynical in general...

It doesn't apply in Forte's case like you said, because he doesn't have a track records of good results. He had a track record of tremendous number of touches, but not doing much per opportunity.As many of us were saying, his opportunities would go down, simply because he wasn't doing enough to merit those touches.

Yup. As I said, I agree in Forte's case but don't think that the two general statements were completely correct. The articles claiming that poor performance was due to hidden injuries could often be quite justified and not just spin jobs. In Forte's case, maybe he was injured AND bad?

 

[Football Jones]

BTW, I keep hearing the only reason Forte excelled in 2008 was because of an extraordinary amount of touches, but that's simply not true. In reality, Forte did as much or more with those touches than any RB in the NFL that season (per-touch basis).

In short, Forte is a talented RB with no competition in a good situation (going forward) who had a disappointing season because of a number of reasons. Textbook dynamics for a big comeback season, IMO.

In fact, I believe Matt Forte will be the most underdrafted RB in 2010 with Steven Jackson being the most overdrafted RB next season (from what I'm hearing from the FF community right now).

 

[switz]

BTW, I keep hearing the only reason Forte excelled in 2010 was because of an extraordinary amount of touches, but that's simply not true. In reality, Forte did as much or more with those touches than any RB in the NFL that season.

absolutely not.His YPC was 76th of all RBs last season.

His YPR was 70th of all RBs last season.

In short, Forte is a talented RB with no competition in a good situation (going forward) who had a disappointing season because of a number of reasons. Textbook dynamics for a big comeback season, IMO.

This is wrong as well, as the Bears were trying to work Garrett Wolfe into the game prior to his injury, and recently have been trying to get Kahlil Bell more touches. Both Bell and Wolfe looked much better than Forte on their touches, as well. Bell had two 11 carry games, one being the last of the season. They will definitely look to reduce Forte's touches so they can use Bell and Wolfe more next season.

 

[CR69]

BTW, I keep hearing the only reason Forte excelled in 2010 was because of an extraordinary amount of touches, but that's simply not true. In reality, Forte did as much or more with those touches than any RB in the NFL that season (per-touch basis).In short, Forte is a talented RB with no competition in a good situation (going forward) who had a disappointing season because of a number of reasons. Textbook dynamics for a big comeback season, IMO.In fact, I believe Matt Forte will be the most underdrafted RB in 2010 with Steven Jackson being the most overdrafted RB next season (from what I'm hearing from the FF community right now).

Really? How many yards per carry or per catch did he have? LOL @ Forte being more productive than any RB in the NFL, while saying Jackson (a perennial top 5RB) will be overrated.

 

[Football Jones]

BTW, I keep hearing the only reason Forte excelled in 2010 was because of an extraordinary amount of touches, but that's simply not true. In reality, Forte did as much or more with those touches than any RB in the NFL that season.

absolutely not.His YPC was 76th of all RBs last season.

His YPR was 70th of all RBs last season.

Like I always say, & I can't say it enough, we play FF. His per-touch numbers (FF) were outstanding in 2009 (without looking, maybe the best in the NFL that season). Forte put up big-time numbers behind a below-average OL with below-average skill-position help that season.There's different ways to look at 2010. His detractors will go one way with it & his backers will go another. I'm supremely confident he'll rebound, but we'll see. Really nothing else to say right now.

 

[Football Jones]

BTW, I keep hearing the only reason Forte excelled in 2010 was because of an extraordinary amount of touches, but that's simply not true. In reality, Forte did as much or more with those touches than any RB in the NFL that season (per-touch basis).In short, Forte is a talented RB with no competition in a good situation (going forward) who had a disappointing season because of a number of reasons. Textbook dynamics for a big comeback season, IMO.In fact, I believe Matt Forte will be the most underdrafted RB in 2010 with Steven Jackson being the most overdrafted RB next season (from what I'm hearing from the FF community right now).

Really? How many yards per carry or per catch did he have? LOL @ Forte being more productive than any RB in the NFL, while saying Jackson (a perennial top 5RB) will be overrated.

Yes, I believe Jackson could be the most overdrafted RB in 2010 (as things stand now).

 

[EBF]

Problem is the Bears could easily draft another RB in rounds 1-4 and virtually anyone they could take there would be a major threat to Forte's status as the team's lead back.

 

[Steed]

Problem is the Bears could easily draft another RB in rounds 1-4 and virtually anyone they could take there would be a major threat to Forte's status as the team's lead back.

Bears have no 1st or 2nd because of Cutler and Gaines Adams trades. Forte's job is safe for exactly 1 more year, unless they hit on a Terrell Davis in the 6th round.

 

[EBF]

Problem is the Bears could easily draft another RB in rounds 1-4 and virtually anyone they could take there would be a major threat to Forte's status as the team's lead back.

Bears have no 1st or 2nd because of Cutler and Gaines Adams trades. Forte's job is safe for exactly 1 more year, unless they hit on a Terrell Davis in the 6th round.

With few draft picks they probably can't afford to take a RB early, but it could still happen. Guys like Anthony Dixon, Toby Gerhart, Noel Devine, and Stafon Johnson could be there in rounds 3-4. All of them could easily push Forte. That's not to mention a potential free agent acquisition like Sproles, Chester, R. Brown, P. Thomas, Washington, or Cadillac. Add one of those guys into the mix and you're looking at RBBC at best.Therein lies the problem with Forte. He's not very talented. He will lose his workhorse status the minute Chicago acquires another decent back. It might have even happened this season if Kevin Jones didn't get hurt again.

 

[Football Jones]

Problem is the Bears could easily draft another RB in rounds 1-4 and virtually anyone they could take there would be a major threat to Forte's status as the team's lead back.

That's only if you believe he's a mediocre RB. We definitely disagree on that, LOL.BTW, I'm not going to say how much of Forte's problems were injury-related, but no doubt injury took a toll on his stats to some degree. Forte has incredible hip flexion when he's healthy & that's one thing he definitely lacked last season. Forte's loose hips (which mostly helps RBs make cuts at a higher rate of speed) are one of his major assets.When you combine health with the expected improvement from Cutler/Knox/Aromashodu/Bennett/Hester/Olsen & continued improvement from the OL (they started playing better towards the end of the season), Forte should be a huge value pick given his talent. If you believe he's got talent, that is.

 

[BuckeyeArt]

BTW, I keep hearing the only reason Forte excelled in 2010 was because of an extraordinary amount of touches, but that's simply not true. In reality, Forte did as much or more with those touches than any RB in the NFL that season.

absolutely not.His YPC was 76th of all RBs last season.

His YPR was 70th of all RBs last season.

Like I always say, & I can't say it enough, we play FF. His per-touch numbers (FF) were outstanding in 2009 (without looking, maybe the best in the NFL that season). Forte put up big-time numbers behind a below-average OL with below-average skill-position help that season.There's different ways to look at 2010. His detractors will go one way with it & his backers will go another. I'm supremely confident he'll rebound, but we'll see. Really nothing else to say right now.

If you look at the top 50 RBs with most touches, and sort them by FPs/touch (both non PPR and PPR), Forte ranks 46th in a non-PPR at 0.521 FPs/touch and 38th in a PPR at 0.702 FPs/touch. Not very good.

 

[the branded hand]

Problem is the Bears could easily draft another RB in rounds 1-4 and virtually anyone they could take there would be a major threat to Forte's status as the team's lead back.

Bears have no 1st or 2nd because of Cutler and Gaines Adams trades. Forte's job is safe for exactly 1 more year, unless they hit on a Terrell Davis in the 6th round.

With few draft picks they probably can't afford to take a RB early, but it could still happen. Guys like Anthony Dixon, Toby Gerhart, Noel Devine, and Stafon Johnson could be there in rounds 3-4. All of them could easily push Forte. That's not to mention a potential free agent acquisition like Sproles, Chester, R. Brown, P. Thomas, Washington, or Cadillac. Add one of those guys into the mix and you're looking at RBBC at best.Therein lies the problem with Forte. He's not very talented. He will lose his workhorse status the minute Chicago acquires another decent back. It might have even happened this season if Kevin Jones didn't get hurt again.

I think that CHI will pursue a FA... BUT... who's to say Forte couldn't be traded... if he's bound to "lose his workhorse status", why not explore the possibility of trading him.

 

[Steed]

Problem is the Bears could easily draft another RB in rounds 1-4 and virtually anyone they could take there would be a major threat to Forte's status as the team's lead back.

Bears have no 1st or 2nd because of Cutler and Gaines Adams trades. Forte's job is safe for exactly 1 more year, unless they hit on a Terrell Davis in the 6th round.

With few draft picks they probably can't afford to take a RB early, but it could still happen. Guys like Anthony Dixon, Toby Gerhart, Noel Devine, and Stafon Johnson could be there in rounds 3-4. All of them could easily push Forte. That's not to mention a potential free agent acquisition like Sproles, Chester, R. Brown, P. Thomas, Washington, or Cadillac. Add one of those guys into the mix and you're looking at RBBC at best.Therein lies the problem with Forte. He's not very talented. He will lose his workhorse status the minute Chicago acquires another decent back. It might have even happened this season if Kevin Jones didn't get hurt again.

I think that CHI will pursue a FA... BUT... who's to say Forte couldn't be traded... if he's bound to "lose his workhorse status", why not explore the possibility of trading him.

Because he's young and cheap enough to at least be great depth.To EBF's point, while I don't consider Forte a great talent either, he's still good enough to hold most of those free agent stiffs off just on knowledge of the playbook and experience in their system. Kevin Jones...he hasn't threatened anyone in a very long time, I think your going overboard to make your point.

 

[EBF]

Problem is the Bears could easily draft another RB in rounds 1-4 and virtually anyone they could take there would be a major threat to Forte's status as the team's lead back.

Bears have no 1st or 2nd because of Cutler and Gaines Adams trades. Forte's job is safe for exactly 1 more year, unless they hit on a Terrell Davis in the 6th round.

With few draft picks they probably can't afford to take a RB early, but it could still happen. Guys like Anthony Dixon, Toby Gerhart, Noel Devine, and Stafon Johnson could be there in rounds 3-4. All of them could easily push Forte. That's not to mention a potential free agent acquisition like Sproles, Chester, R. Brown, P. Thomas, Washington, or Cadillac. Add one of those guys into the mix and you're looking at RBBC at best.Therein lies the problem with Forte. He's not very talented. He will lose his workhorse status the minute Chicago acquires another decent back. It might have even happened this season if Kevin Jones didn't get hurt again.

I think that CHI will pursue a FA... BUT... who's to say Forte couldn't be traded... if he's bound to "lose his workhorse status", why not explore the possibility of trading him.

He doesn't have any trade value because he isn't a significant upgrade for anyone in the NFL.

 

[Football Jones]

BTW, I keep hearing the only reason Forte excelled in 2010 was because of an extraordinary amount of touches, but that's simply not true. In reality, Forte did as much or more with those touches than any RB in the NFL that season.

absolutely not.His YPC was 76th of all RBs last season.

His YPR was 70th of all RBs last season.

Like I always say, & I can't say it enough, we play FF. His per-touch numbers (FF) were outstanding in 2009 (without looking, maybe the best in the NFL that season). Forte put up big-time numbers behind a below-average OL with below-average skill-position help that season.There's different ways to look at 2010. His detractors will go one way with it & his backers will go another. I'm supremely confident he'll rebound, but we'll see. Really nothing else to say right now.

If you look at the top 50 RBs with most touches, and sort them by FPs/touch (both non PPR and PPR), Forte ranks 46th in a non-PPR at 0.521 FPs/touch and 38th in a PPR at 0.702 FPs/touch. Not very good.

I was talking about 2008 where Forte excelled on a point-per-touch basis (0.811 in PPR leagues).EDIT: I inadvertently mentioned 2010 in a previous post.

 

[SSOG]

This is wrong as well, as the Bears were trying to work Garrett Wolfe into the game prior to his injury, and recently have been trying to get Kahlil Bell more touches. Both Bell and Wolfe looked much better than Forte on their touches, as well. Bell had two 11 carry games, one being the last of the season. They will definitely look to reduce Forte's touches so they can use Bell and Wolfe more next season.

Beyond that, too, Chicago was planning on having Kevin Jones around to take some of the load off of Forte, but he got put on IR right before the season, which is why Chicago was so light at backup RB in the first place.

Bears have no 1st or 2nd because of Cutler and Gaines Adams trades. Forte's job is safe for exactly 1 more year, unless they hit on a Terrell Davis in the 6th round.

There are tons of places to get quality RBs without burning a high draft pick. Lowly-drafted RBs have a longer track record of success than just "Terrell Davis" (Dominic Rhodes, Mike Anderson, Mike Bell, Reuben Droughns, Tim Hightower, etc), and there are always the bargain-basement castoffs like Benson and Buckhalter (a list that this year, iirc, includes names like Larry Johnson, LenDale White, Willis McGahee).

I was talking about 2008 where Forte excelled on a point-per-touch basis (0.811 in PPR leagues).

EDIT: I inadvertently mentioned 2010 in a previous post.

We've discussed this before. Forte's high "points per touch in PPR league" statistic is heavily inflated by his highly skewed reception-to-rush ratio. A guy who has 100 carries for 1000 yards and 5 receptions for 100 yards will average fewer fantasy points per touch than a guy who has 10 carries for 20 yards and 50 receptions for 200 yards, despite the first guy averaging five times more yards per carry and five times more yards per reception. It's called Simpson's Paradox. "Fantasy points per touch in a PPR league" is the single most useless metric that has been thrown out in this entire thread, unless you secretly believe that Larry Centers is the single greatest fantasy runningback in the entire history of fantasy runningbacks. Because Centers *DOMINATES* all other runningbacks in terms of "fantasy points per touch in a PPR league".Forte averaged 0.811 points per touch in PPR leagues last year. You know who absolutely obliterated him? The fantasy stud known as Kevin Faulk, who averaged a mind-boggling 1.371 fantasy points per touch. This year, Kevin "Marshall Who?" Faulk, that fantasy MACHINE, averaged 1.198 fantasy points per touch, and it was considered a down year for him! I'm considering drafting him with the #1 overall next year.

 

[Instinctive]

I was talking about 2008 where Forte excelled on a point-per-touch basis (0.811 in PPR leagues).

EDIT: I inadvertently mentioned 2010 in a previous post.

We've discussed this before. Forte's high "points per touch in PPR league" statistic is heavily inflated by his highly skewed reception-to-rush ratio. A guy who has 100 carries for 1000 yards and 5 receptions for 100 yards will average fewer fantasy points per touch than a guy who has 10 carries for 20 yards and 50 receptions for 200 yards, despite the first guy averaging five times more yards per carry and five times more yards per reception. It's called Simpson's Paradox. "Fantasy points per touch in a PPR league" is the single most useless metric that has been thrown out in this entire thread, unless you secretly believe that Larry Centers is the single greatest fantasy runningback in the entire history of fantasy runningbacks. Because Centers *DOMINATES* all other runningbacks in terms of "fantasy points per touch in a PPR league".Forte averaged 0.811 points per touch in PPR leagues last year. You know who absolutely obliterated him? The fantasy stud known as Kevin Faulk, who averaged a mind-boggling 1.371 fantasy points per touch. This year, Kevin "Marshall Who?" Faulk, that fantasy MACHINE, averaged 1.198 fantasy points per touch, and it was considered a down year for him! I'm considering drafting him with the #1 overall next year.

DING DING DINGFantasy points per touch, especially in a PPR league...isn't necessarily a great statistic. LenDale White had 205 touches last season, and they were good for 773 rush yards, 15 TDs, and 16 rec yards (5 of the touches were receptions). This gives us a total of

90 from TDs

77.3 from rushing yards

1.6 from rec yards

5 from catches

FOR

173.9 points.

Holy crap...that's 0.848 points for every touch! And look at how much room he has to improve on his workload! And what a TD machine! He's amazing! Oh wait...he scored 38.6 points TOTAL this season because he was mediocre in every facet of the game, got the yards given to him, and didn't have the talent to consistently gain yards after contact, avoid contact, and generally bust the big play.

To think, no way that could possibly happen to Matt Forte.

I mean, on a yards per touch basis he was only in the SEVENTIES among NFL running backs. That only means every single team averaged 2 RBs who did more with their touches. And then a couple extra guys still did better. But you're probably right...he definitely got some big time TALENT!

....you're starting to sound like gdogg... (sig)

 

[Football Jones]

I was talking about 2008 where Forte excelled on a point-per-touch basis (0.811 in PPR leagues).

EDIT: I inadvertently mentioned 2010 in a previous post.

We've discussed this before. Forte's high "points per touch in PPR league" statistic is heavily inflated by his highly skewed reception-to-rush ratio. A guy who has 100 carries for 1000 yards and 5 receptions for 100 yards will average fewer fantasy points per touch than a guy who has 10 carries for 20 yards and 50 receptions for 200 yards, despite the first guy averaging five times more yards per carry and five times more yards per reception. It's called Simpson's Paradox. "Fantasy points per touch in a PPR league" is the single most useless metric that has been thrown out in this entire thread, unless you secretly believe that Larry Centers is the single greatest fantasy runningback in the entire history of fantasy runningbacks. Because Centers *DOMINATES* all other runningbacks in terms of "fantasy points per touch in a PPR league".Forte averaged 0.811 points per touch in PPR leagues last year. You know who absolutely obliterated him? The fantasy stud known as Kevin Faulk, who averaged a mind-boggling 1.371 fantasy points per touch. This year, Kevin "Marshall Who?" Faulk, that fantasy MACHINE, averaged 1.198 fantasy points per touch, and it was considered a down year for him! I'm considering drafting him with the #1 overall next year.

DING DING DINGFantasy points per touch, especially in a PPR league...isn't necessarily a great statistic. LenDale White had 205 touches last season, and they were good for 773 rush yards, 15 TDs, and 16 rec yards (5 of the touches were receptions). This gives us a total of

90 from TDs

77.3 from rushing yards

1.6 from rec yards

5 from catches

FOR

173.9 points.

Holy crap...that's 0.848 points for every touch! And look at how much room he has to improve on his workload! And what a TD machine! He's amazing! Oh wait...he scored 38.6 points TOTAL this season because he was mediocre in every facet of the game, got the yards given to him, and didn't have the talent to consistently gain yards after contact, avoid contact, and generally bust the big play.

To think, no way that could possibly happen to Matt Forte.

I mean, on a yards per touch basis he was only in the SEVENTIES among NFL running backs. That only means every single team averaged 2 RBs who did more with their touches. And then a couple extra guys still did better. But you're probably right...he definitely got some big time TALENT!

....you're starting to sound like gdogg... (sig)

Forte also had an excellent points-per-touch average in non-PPR leagues in 2008. As far as PPR leagues being skewed towards receptions, that's the point, LOL. Forte is a good pass-catcher. In fact, he's one of the best in the NFL.It simply amazes me a guy who finished at RB2 in 2008 & RB12 in 2009 (PPR) is thought so little of by some in the FF community. And he's done that with little help. Even this season with injury, below-average QB play, & worse OL play, Forte was a low-end RB1 in a 12-team league.

Forte is primed for a big comeback season when you add up all the dynamics, & that includes his very obvious talent & what should be a much-improved situation going forward. Forte isn't the most talented RB in the NFL, but he's tailor-made for FF production. It's a huge mistake to scout RBs with an arbitrary stat like YPC. It's also a mistake waiting for a RB like Forte to be replaced. Not going to happen anytime soon. And he'll have the glowing YPC when he gets some help, but as 2008 showed, Forte doesn't need it to be a big-time FF producer.

Bottom line...2009 will be considered the outlier in his career, not 2008. No question, IMO.

 

[Football Jones]

This is wrong as well, as the Bears were trying to work Garrett Wolfe into the game prior to his injury, and recently have been trying to get Kahlil Bell more touches. Both Bell and Wolfe looked much better than Forte on their touches, as well. Bell had two 11 carry games, one being the last of the season. They will definitely look to reduce Forte's touches so they can use Bell and Wolfe more next season.

Beyond that, too, Chicago was planning on having Kevin Jones around to take some of the load off of Forte, but he got put on IR right before the season, which is why Chicago was so light at backup RB in the first place.

Bears have no 1st or 2nd because of Cutler and Gaines Adams trades. Forte's job is safe for exactly 1 more year, unless they hit on a Terrell Davis in the 6th round.

There are tons of places to get quality RBs without burning a high draft pick. Lowly-drafted RBs have a longer track record of success than just "Terrell Davis" (Dominic Rhodes, Mike Anderson, Mike Bell, Reuben Droughns, Tim Hightower, etc), and there are always the bargain-basement castoffs like Benson and Buckhalter (a list that this year, iirc, includes names like Larry Johnson, LenDale White, Willis McGahee).

I was talking about 2008 where Forte excelled on a point-per-touch basis (0.811 in PPR leagues).

EDIT: I inadvertently mentioned 2010 in a previous post.

We've discussed this before. Forte's high "points per touch in PPR league" statistic is heavily inflated by his highly skewed reception-to-rush ratio. A guy who has 100 carries for 1000 yards and 5 receptions for 100 yards will average fewer fantasy points per touch than a guy who has 10 carries for 20 yards and 50 receptions for 200 yards, despite the first guy averaging five times more yards per carry and five times more yards per reception. It's called Simpson's Paradox. "Fantasy points per touch in a PPR league" is the single most useless metric that has been thrown out in this entire thread, unless you secretly believe that Larry Centers is the single greatest fantasy runningback in the entire history of fantasy runningbacks. Because Centers *DOMINATES* all other runningbacks in terms of "fantasy points per touch in a PPR league".Forte averaged 0.811 points per touch in PPR leagues last year. You know who absolutely obliterated him? The fantasy stud known as Kevin Faulk, who averaged a mind-boggling 1.371 fantasy points per touch. This year, Kevin "Marshall Who?" Faulk, that fantasy MACHINE, averaged 1.198 fantasy points per touch, and it was considered a down year for him! I'm considering drafting him with the #1 overall next year.

Comparing Forte's sample size to Kevin Faulk's? You couldn't come up with a worse analogy if you tried, LOL.You're simply WAY underestimating Forte's talent. Just no other way I can explain it. He's not the most talented RB in the league, but like I said in my previous post, he's tailor-made for FF production. Enough that he'll very likely outproduce Steven Jackson in PPR leagues next year (to give you a comparison). That could change if the Rams go get a decent QB, but Forte should have a decided advantage in 2010 (due to a combination of Forte's situation & talent).

We'll see what happens.

 

[Instinctive]

I was talking about 2008 where Forte excelled on a point-per-touch basis (0.811 in PPR leagues).

EDIT: I inadvertently mentioned 2010 in a previous post.

We've discussed this before. Forte's high "points per touch in PPR league" statistic is heavily inflated by his highly skewed reception-to-rush ratio. A guy who has 100 carries for 1000 yards and 5 receptions for 100 yards will average fewer fantasy points per touch than a guy who has 10 carries for 20 yards and 50 receptions for 200 yards, despite the first guy averaging five times more yards per carry and five times more yards per reception. It's called Simpson's Paradox. "Fantasy points per touch in a PPR league" is the single most useless metric that has been thrown out in this entire thread, unless you secretly believe that Larry Centers is the single greatest fantasy runningback in the entire history of fantasy runningbacks. Because Centers *DOMINATES* all other runningbacks in terms of "fantasy points per touch in a PPR league".Forte averaged 0.811 points per touch in PPR leagues last year. You know who absolutely obliterated him? The fantasy stud known as Kevin Faulk, who averaged a mind-boggling 1.371 fantasy points per touch. This year, Kevin "Marshall Who?" Faulk, that fantasy MACHINE, averaged 1.198 fantasy points per touch, and it was considered a down year for him! I'm considering drafting him with the #1 overall next year.

DING DING DINGFantasy points per touch, especially in a PPR league...isn't necessarily a great statistic. LenDale White had 205 touches last season, and they were good for 773 rush yards, 15 TDs, and 16 rec yards (5 of the touches were receptions). This gives us a total of

90 from TDs

77.3 from rushing yards

1.6 from rec yards

5 from catches

FOR

173.9 points.

Holy crap...that's 0.848 points for every touch! And look at how much room he has to improve on his workload! And what a TD machine! He's amazing! Oh wait...he scored 38.6 points TOTAL this season because he was mediocre in every facet of the game, got the yards given to him, and didn't have the talent to consistently gain yards after contact, avoid contact, and generally bust the big play.

To think, no way that could possibly happen to Matt Forte.

I mean, on a yards per touch basis he was only in the SEVENTIES among NFL running backs. That only means every single team averaged 2 RBs who did more with their touches. And then a couple extra guys still did better. But you're probably right...he definitely got some big time TALENT!

....you're starting to sound like gdogg... (sig)

Forte also had an excellent points-per-touch average in non-PPR leagues in 2008. As far as PPR leagues being skewed towards receptions, that's the point, LOL. Forte is a good pass-catcher. In fact, he's one of the best in the NFL.It simply amazes me a guy who finished at RB2 in 2008 & RB12 in 2009 (PPR) is thought so little of by some in the FF community. And he's done that with little help. Even this season with injury, below-average QB play, & worse OL play, Forte was a low-end RB1 in a 12-team league.

Forte is primed for a big comeback season when you add up all the dynamics, & that includes his very obvious talent & what should be a much-improved situation going forward. Forte isn't the most talented RB in the NFL, but he's tailor-made for FF production. It's a huge mistake to scout RBs with an arbitrary stat like YPC. It's also a mistake waiting for a RB like Forte to be replaced. Not going to happen anytime soon. And he'll have the glowing YPC when he gets some help, but as 2008 showed, Forte doesn't need it to be a big-time FF producer.

Bottom line...2009 will be considered the outlier in his career, not 2008. No question, IMO.

Ok, fine...he had an excellent points per touchw ithout receptions...LenDale White's points per touch drops from .848 (higher than Forte's in PPR) to roughly .840. Way higher than Forte's non PPR points per touch.I agree that he will be undervalued. I'm hoping for a big overreaction that lets me land him as a RB2 in the fourth, or maybe a RB3 in the third (if I get 2 studs I didn't expect in the first two rounds and depending on who else is there...)

The biggest thing here is that, for some reason, you inexplicably believe he has way more talent than anyone else. If you turn out somehow to be right, I'll be the first to say good call. But attempting to prove that point with metrics that don't measure anything other than a massive workload is a bad idea.

And those fantasy point things I used WERE from 2008. Your saying that I should use the 2008 ones because they'd be better shows a certain lack of knowledge behind your point of view as well as upholding the fact that maybe his numbers weren't that good on a per touch basis...

 

[Instinctive]

This is wrong as well, as the Bears were trying to work Garrett Wolfe into the game prior to his injury, and recently have been trying to get Kahlil Bell more touches. Both Bell and Wolfe looked much better than Forte on their touches, as well. Bell had two 11 carry games, one being the last of the season. They will definitely look to reduce Forte's touches so they can use Bell and Wolfe more next season.

Beyond that, too, Chicago was planning on having Kevin Jones around to take some of the load off of Forte, but he got put on IR right before the season, which is why Chicago was so light at backup RB in the first place.

Bears have no 1st or 2nd because of Cutler and Gaines Adams trades. Forte's job is safe for exactly 1 more year, unless they hit on a Terrell Davis in the 6th round.

There are tons of places to get quality RBs without burning a high draft pick. Lowly-drafted RBs have a longer track record of success than just "Terrell Davis" (Dominic Rhodes, Mike Anderson, Mike Bell, Reuben Droughns, Tim Hightower, etc), and there are always the bargain-basement castoffs like Benson and Buckhalter (a list that this year, iirc, includes names like Larry Johnson, LenDale White, Willis McGahee).

I was talking about 2008 where Forte excelled on a point-per-touch basis (0.811 in PPR leagues).

EDIT: I inadvertently mentioned 2010 in a previous post.

We've discussed this before. Forte's high "points per touch in PPR league" statistic is heavily inflated by his highly skewed reception-to-rush ratio. A guy who has 100 carries for 1000 yards and 5 receptions for 100 yards will average fewer fantasy points per touch than a guy who has 10 carries for 20 yards and 50 receptions for 200 yards, despite the first guy averaging five times more yards per carry and five times more yards per reception. It's called Simpson's Paradox. "Fantasy points per touch in a PPR league" is the single most useless metric that has been thrown out in this entire thread, unless you secretly believe that Larry Centers is the single greatest fantasy runningback in the entire history of fantasy runningbacks. Because Centers *DOMINATES* all other runningbacks in terms of "fantasy points per touch in a PPR league".Forte averaged 0.811 points per touch in PPR leagues last year. You know who absolutely obliterated him? The fantasy stud known as Kevin Faulk, who averaged a mind-boggling 1.371 fantasy points per touch. This year, Kevin "Marshall Who?" Faulk, that fantasy MACHINE, averaged 1.198 fantasy points per touch, and it was considered a down year for him! I'm considering drafting him with the #1 overall next year.

Comparing Forte's sample size to Kevin Faulk's? You couldn't come up with a worse analogy if you tried, LOL.You're simply WAY underestimating Forte's talent. Just no other way I can explain it. He's not the most talented RB in the league, but like I said in my previous post, he's tailor-made for FF production. Enough that he'll very likely outproduce Steven Jackson in PPR leagues next year (to give you a comparison). That could change if the Rams go get a decent QB, but Forte should have a decided advantage in 2010 (due to a combination of Forte's situation & talent).

We'll see what happens.

really doubtful there, but nice job being bold

 

[switz]

Problem is the Bears could easily draft another RB in rounds 1-4 and virtually anyone they could take there would be a major threat to Forte's status as the team's lead back.

Bears have no 1st or 2nd because of Cutler and Gaines Adams trades. Forte's job is safe for exactly 1 more year, unless they hit on a Terrell Davis in the 6th round.

Did you see what Fred Jackson did to Marshawn Lynch this year? Don't be surprised to see Bell do that to Forte next year. His job in nowhere near safe, outside of Wolfe and Bell, there are also available FA's pretty cheap - including possible Portis, who may be let go from WAS.

 

[Instinctive]

Problem is the Bears could easily draft another RB in rounds 1-4 and virtually anyone they could take there would be a major threat to Forte's status as the team's lead back.

Bears have no 1st or 2nd because of Cutler and Gaines Adams trades. Forte's job is safe for exactly 1 more year, unless they hit on a Terrell Davis in the 6th round.

Did you see what Fred Jackson did to Marshawn Lynch this year? Don't be surprised to see Bell do that to Forte next year. His job in nowhere near safe, outside of Wolfe and Bell, there are also available FA's pretty cheap - including possible Portis, who may be let go from WAS.

i believe Willis McGahee will be a free agent as well. And LenDale White too? among others?

 

[thevidon]

There are an unbelievable number of BS excuses being put forward about Forte and why he is good value. Just go watch him run - if you think he is anything more than a pedestrian talent who is easily replaceable then you should stop evaluating RBs because you have no eye for it.

He has some positives - he can catch very well and he can take a beating - but he is NOT a top RB talent and any talented RB the bears draft or trade for will push Forte into a 3rd down role pretty quickly IMO.

 

[Football Jones]

I was talking about 2008 where Forte excelled on a point-per-touch basis (0.811 in PPR leagues).

EDIT: I inadvertently mentioned 2010 in a previous post.

We've discussed this before. Forte's high "points per touch in PPR league" statistic is heavily inflated by his highly skewed reception-to-rush ratio. A guy who has 100 carries for 1000 yards and 5 receptions for 100 yards will average fewer fantasy points per touch than a guy who has 10 carries for 20 yards and 50 receptions for 200 yards, despite the first guy averaging five times more yards per carry and five times more yards per reception. It's called Simpson's Paradox. "Fantasy points per touch in a PPR league" is the single most useless metric that has been thrown out in this entire thread, unless you secretly believe that Larry Centers is the single greatest fantasy runningback in the entire history of fantasy runningbacks. Because Centers *DOMINATES* all other runningbacks in terms of "fantasy points per touch in a PPR league".Forte averaged 0.811 points per touch in PPR leagues last year. You know who absolutely obliterated him? The fantasy stud known as Kevin Faulk, who averaged a mind-boggling 1.371 fantasy points per touch. This year, Kevin "Marshall Who?" Faulk, that fantasy MACHINE, averaged 1.198 fantasy points per touch, and it was considered a down year for him! I'm considering drafting him with the #1 overall next year.

DING DING DINGFantasy points per touch, especially in a PPR league...isn't necessarily a great statistic. LenDale White had 205 touches last season, and they were good for 773 rush yards, 15 TDs, and 16 rec yards (5 of the touches were receptions). This gives us a total of

90 from TDs

77.3 from rushing yards

1.6 from rec yards

5 from catches

FOR

173.9 points.

Holy crap...that's 0.848 points for every touch! And look at how much room he has to improve on his workload! And what a TD machine! He's amazing! Oh wait...he scored 38.6 points TOTAL this season because he was mediocre in every facet of the game, got the yards given to him, and didn't have the talent to consistently gain yards after contact, avoid contact, and generally bust the big play.

To think, no way that could possibly happen to Matt Forte.

I mean, on a yards per touch basis he was only in the SEVENTIES among NFL running backs. That only means every single team averaged 2 RBs who did more with their touches. And then a couple extra guys still did better. But you're probably right...he definitely got some big time TALENT!

....you're starting to sound like gdogg... (sig)

Forte also had an excellent points-per-touch average in non-PPR leagues in 2008. As far as PPR leagues being skewed towards receptions, that's the point, LOL. Forte is a good pass-catcher. In fact, he's one of the best in the NFL.It simply amazes me a guy who finished at RB2 in 2008 & RB12 in 2009 (PPR) is thought so little of by some in the FF community. And he's done that with little help. Even this season with injury, below-average QB play, & worse OL play, Forte was a low-end RB1 in a 12-team league.

Forte is primed for a big comeback season when you add up all the dynamics, & that includes his very obvious talent & what should be a much-improved situation going forward. Forte isn't the most talented RB in the NFL, but he's tailor-made for FF production. It's a huge mistake to scout RBs with an arbitrary stat like YPC. It's also a mistake waiting for a RB like Forte to be replaced. Not going to happen anytime soon. And he'll have the glowing YPC when he gets some help, but as 2008 showed, Forte doesn't need it to be a big-time FF producer.

Bottom line...2009 will be considered the outlier in his career, not 2008. No question, IMO.

Ok, fine...he had an excellent points per touchw ithout receptions...LenDale White's points per touch drops from .848 (higher than Forte's in PPR) to roughly .840. Way higher than Forte's non PPR points per touch.I agree that he will be undervalued. I'm hoping for a big overreaction that lets me land him as a RB2 in the fourth, or maybe a RB3 in the third (if I get 2 studs I didn't expect in the first two rounds and depending on who else is there...)

The biggest thing here is that, for some reason, you inexplicably believe he has way more talent than anyone else. If you turn out somehow to be right, I'll be the first to say good call. But attempting to prove that point with metrics that don't measure anything other than a massive workload is a bad idea.

And those fantasy point things I used WERE from 2008. Your saying that I should use the 2008 ones because they'd be better shows a certain lack of knowledge behind your point of view as well as upholding the fact that maybe his numbers weren't that good on a per touch basis...

Huh? What 2008 numbers? You broke them down to show your side of the story, LOL. Bottom line...the only 2008 numbers that matter are straight FF numbers. And he was amazing in 2008 on a mediocre team. He was RB12 in 2009 on a mediocre team (or worse) & everything in the world went wrong. You don't believe that RB has talent?You have to scout players with your eyes. As I've explained before, injury did hurt his production this season. His unique hip flexion wasn't there & neither was his burst. You can believe those are BS excuses if you want. He also operated behind the worst OL in the league (especially thru the first 3/4 of the season) & played with a QB who continually turned over the ball. Their D wasn't up to par & that was a factor, as well. Given his talent/situation, those are textbook dynamics for a big comeback season. You don't see the upside?

All I can say is from what I'm hearing from the FF community, Forte will be the THE value at RB in 2010. And I'm confident when I say that's a pretty easy call.

BTW, Kahlil Bell has zero chance of doing anything other than getting a few planned touches a game. I believe people are massively underappreciating how long a RB like Forte can remain a starter.

 

[gianmarco]

BTW, Kahlil Bell has zero chance of doing anything other than getting a few planned touches a game. I believe people are massively underappreciating how long a RB like Forte can remain a starter.

Ahh, how familiar this sounds. I remember many Lynch owners saying the same thing about Fred Jackson and about how Lynch simply suffered behind a bad O-line and crappy offense.....

 

[switz]

Huh? What 2008 numbers? You broke them down to show your side of the story, LOL. Bottom line...the only 2008 numbers that matter are straight FF numbers. And he was amazing in 2008 on a mediocre team. He was RB12 in 2009 on a mediocre team (or worse) & everything in the world went wrong. You don't believe that RB has talent?

No, actually what matters MOST is NFL numbers. Because NFL numbers determine how much opportunity an RB gets. And as I posted (I believe earlier in this very thread), when you don't produce per touch, your touches will decrease. I said this specifically about Forte, and it turned out to be absolutely correct.

You have to scout players with your eyes. As I've explained before, injury did hurt his production this season. His unique hip flexion wasn't there & neither was his burst. You can believe those are BS excuses if you want. He also operated behind the worst OL in the league (especially thru the first 3/4 of the season) & played with a QB who continually turned over the ball. Their D wasn't up to par & that was a factor, as well. Given his talent/situation, those are textbook dynamics for a big comeback season. You don't see the upside? All I can say is from what I'm hearing from the FF community, Forte will the THE value at RB in 2010. And I'm confident when I say that's a pretty easy call.

Your eyes are lying to you. Especially this whole hip flexion thing you kepp referring to. Forte is NOT the most elusive RB, not in 2009, not in 2008.Also, I'm not sure what "FF community" you are referring to. There is nothing like that going through ANY FF community.

BTW, Kahlil Bell has zero chance of doing anything other than getting a few planned touches a game. I believe people are massively underappreciating how long a RB like Forte can remain a starter.

I think you are massively overestimating Forte's talent. And I don't necessarily think Bell will be THE RB to take away a bunch of Forte's touches. It could be Wolfe, it could be a yet unsigned FA, but believe me, that RB does exist.

 

[thevidon]

I believe people are massively underappreciating how long a RB like Forte can remain a starter.

He can remain a starter until the Bears bring in a more talented RB to take his job away. Most of us feel that the talent threshold required to surpass Forte is pretty low, so therefore a lot of people feel like Forte won't last long as a starter.

 

[Football Jones]

Huh? What 2008 numbers? You broke them down to show your side of the story, LOL. Bottom line...the only 2008 numbers that matter are straight FF numbers. And he was amazing in 2008 on a mediocre team. He was RB12 in 2009 on a mediocre team (or worse) & everything in the world went wrong. You don't believe that RB has talent?

No, actually what matters MOST is NFL numbers. Because NFL numbers determine how much opportunity an RB gets. And as I posted (I believe earlier in this very thread), when you don't produce per touch, your touches will decrease. I said this specifically about Forte, and it turned out to be absolutely correct.

You have to scout players with your eyes. As I've explained before, injury did hurt his production this season. His unique hip flexion wasn't there & neither was his burst. You can believe those are BS excuses if you want. He also operated behind the worst OL in the league (especially thru the first 3/4 of the season) & played with a QB who continually turned over the ball. Their D wasn't up to par & that was a factor, as well. Given his talent/situation, those are textbook dynamics for a big comeback season. You don't see the upside? All I can say is from what I'm hearing from the FF community, Forte will the THE value at RB in 2010. And I'm confident when I say that's a pretty easy call.

Your eyes are lying to you. Especially this whole hip flexion thing you kepp referring to. Forte is NOT the most elusive RB, not in 2009, not in 2008.Also, I'm not sure what "FF community" you are referring to. There is nothing like that going through ANY FF community.

BTW, Kahlil Bell has zero chance of doing anything other than getting a few planned touches a game. I believe people are massively underappreciating how long a RB like Forte can remain a starter.

I think you are massively overestimating Forte's talent. And I don't necessarily think Bell will be THE RB to take away a bunch of Forte's touches. It could be Wolfe, it could be a yet unsigned FA, but believe me, that RB does exist.

No, my eyes aren't lying to me, LOL. Forte has tremendously loose hips (outstanding hip flexion) when healthy, which helps a RB cut at a higher rate of speed. It can help RBs be elusive, but in Forte's case, it simply helps him avoid tacklers (typically after the LOS). He very noticeably didn't have that in 2009 (lower body injuries can definitely affect hip flexion). Then agian, he didn't have many chances to get into the 2nd level this past season.The FF community I'm referring to is you & me...all of us. From what I'm hearing (reading) in his forum, it seems as if Forte is massively underappreciated (IMO), thus, he'll be a great value in 2010 (again, IMO).

 

[Football Jones]

BTW, Kahlil Bell has zero chance of doing anything other than getting a few planned touches a game. I believe people are massively underappreciating how long a RB like Forte can remain a starter.

Ahh, how familiar this sounds. I remember many Lynch owners saying the same thing about Fred Jackson and about how Lynch simply suffered behind a bad O-line and crappy offense.....

Jackson & Bell are worlds apart.

 

[Football Jones]

BTW, while I have no doubts about Forte's talent, if, for whatever reason, the Bears decide to bring in a good RB to split touches, Forte will lose value. It's that simple.

I have no dilusions that Forte's value is the same as it was after the 2008 season. I fully realize he took a significant hit.

The good thing about FF is we'll know by our drafts. The difference between a top FFer & a good FFer is not only how well he/she evaluates talent, but how well he/she evaluates situation. And that's only the tip of the iceberg. It's an ever-evolving world & that's why this hobby of ours is so great.

 

[squistion]

No, my eyes aren't lying to me, LOL. Forte has tremendously loose hips (outstanding hip flexion) when healthy, which helps a RB cut at a higher rate of speed. It can help RBs be elusive, but in Forte's case, it simply helps him avoid tacklers (typically after the LOS). He very noticeably didn't have that in 2009 (lower body injuries can definitely affect hip flexion). Then agian, he didn't have many chances to get into the 2nd level this past season.

The FF community I'm referring to is you & me...all of us. From what I'm hearing (reading) in his forum, it seems as if Forte is massively underappreciated (IMO), thus, he'll be a great value in 2010 (again, IMO).

I don't think my eyes are lying to me either. It should be noted that the original analysis was by someone who had never seen any of Forte's games in 2008 - it was based solely on stats, draft pedigree, etc. It was the right call for the 2009 year, but it was not from any first hand observations (in retrospect I guess it didn't have to be).Fine with me if they keep dissing Forte. The more he is trashed, the cheaper I will be able to pick him up in trade - although it appears that we are in a distinct minority who view this as a "buy low" opportunity.

 

[Instinctive]

No, my eyes aren't lying to me, LOL. Forte has tremendously loose hips (outstanding hip flexion) when healthy, which helps a RB cut at a higher rate of speed. It can help RBs be elusive, but in Forte's case, it simply helps him avoid tacklers (typically after the LOS). He very noticeably didn't have that in 2009 (lower body injuries can definitely affect hip flexion). Then agian, he didn't have many chances to get into the 2nd level this past season.

The FF community I'm referring to is you & me...all of us. From what I'm hearing (reading) in his forum, it seems as if Forte is massively underappreciated (IMO), thus, he'll be a great value in 2010 (again, IMO).

I don't think my eyes are lying to me either. It should be noted that the original analysis was by someone who had never seen any of Forte's games in 2008 - it was based solely on stats, draft pedigree, etc. It was the right call for the 2009 year, but it was not from any first hand observations (in retrospect I guess it didn't have to be).Fine with me if they keep dissing Forte. The more he is trashed, the cheaper I will be able to pick him up in trade - although it appears that we are in a distinct minority who view this as a "buy low" opportunity.

I have eyes too, not just the numbers. He isn't anything special.HOWEVER, I agree that some people may overreact to the side I am on and take it to far, so I too will look to buy him low, although I'm sure my version of lower is lower than yours, because for some inexplicable reason you guys expect him to be a starter for a long time.

He'll be there a while, probably...because the Bears need linemen and defense. But man, a RB falls to 4-7, or a FA comes over to them like any of the number mentioned above, or Bell is good (since we've seen oh so much of him I reserve judgment for later). But he won't be there a LONG time. Because somebody could (much easier than on other teams) come in and oust him, even unexpectedly.

I think from a fantasy perspective, he could be about RB10-15 again next season. Based on a massive workload. But I also think that Wolfe and/or Bell and/or unknown commodity as of now could come in and destroy his value as early as next season...the most I'd pay for Forte is a RB20 price or so, and then I hope I stole him at the upside of around RB10.

But I'm not risking RB10 value because I am NOT that confident in him. We'll see if I can snag him in my start three as the backup for CJ4.24/Rice/Charles/Sproles. Draft picks where I have them there aren't worth much to me anyway, maybe somebody "rebuilding" (which is stupid) will give him to me.

Point being, he has not bad upside, for a not terrible length of time, but also carries a lot of risk because he simply isn't that talented.

 

[gianmarco]

No, my eyes aren't lying to me, LOL. Forte has tremendously loose hips (outstanding hip flexion) when healthy, which helps a RB cut at a higher rate of speed. It can help RBs be elusive, but in Forte's case, it simply helps him avoid tacklers (typically after the LOS). He very noticeably didn't have that in 2009 (lower body injuries can definitely affect hip flexion). Then agian, he didn't have many chances to get into the 2nd level this past season.

The FF community I'm referring to is you & me...all of us. From what I'm hearing (reading) in his forum, it seems as if Forte is massively underappreciated (IMO), thus, he'll be a great value in 2010 (again, IMO).

I don't think my eyes are lying to me either. It should be noted that the original analysis was by someone who had never seen any of Forte's games in 2008 - it was based solely on stats, draft pedigree, etc. It was the right call for the 2009 year, but it was not from any first hand observations (in retrospect I guess it didn't have to be).Fine with me if they keep dissing Forte. The more he is trashed, the cheaper I will be able to pick him up in trade - although it appears that we are in a distinct minority who view this as a "buy low" opportunity.

I have eyes too, not just the numbers. He isn't anything special.HOWEVER, I agree that some people may overreact to the side I am on and take it to far, so I too will look to buy him low, although I'm sure my version of lower is lower than yours, because for some inexplicable reason you guys expect him to be a starter for a long time.

He'll be there a while, probably...because the Bears need linemen and defense. But man, a RB falls to 4-7, or a FA comes over to them like any of the number mentioned above, or Bell is good (since we've seen oh so much of him I reserve judgment for later). But he won't be there a LONG time. Because somebody could (much easier than on other teams) come in and oust him, even unexpectedly.

I think from a fantasy perspective, he could be about RB10-15 again next season. Based on a massive workload. But I also think that Wolfe and/or Bell and/or unknown commodity as of now could come in and destroy his value as early as next season...the most I'd pay for Forte is a RB20 price or so, and then I hope I stole him at the upside of around RB10.

But I'm not risking RB10 value because I am NOT that confident in him. We'll see if I can snag him in my start three as the backup for CJ4.24/Rice/Charles/Sproles. Draft picks where I have them there aren't worth much to me anyway, maybe somebody "rebuilding" (which is stupid) will give him to me.

Point being, he has not bad upside, for a not terrible length of time, but also carries a lot of risk because he simply isn't that talented.

Couldn't have said this any better on all points. I'm not a fan of Forte at all (and haven't been) but that doesn't mean he doesn't have any value. Of course he has fantasy value now and will continue to do so while he's getting the touches. As described above, that's the problem. He's not guaranteed to keep getting those touches for a long time. And if he does fall into that category of "replaceable talent", the value usually drops like a rock when even the hint of touches decreasing rears its head. There is NO WAY Minnesota ever brings in a RB to challenge AP for the bulk of the carries.

There is NO WAY St. Louis ever brings in a RB to challenge SJax for the bulk of the carries.

There is NO WAY SF ever brings in a RB to challenge Gore for the bulk of the carries.

There is NO WAY Lendale or anyone else will ever challenge Chris Johnson for the bulk of the carries.

Forte is NOT in that group of elite guys. When even the HINT of drafting another RB, bringing in a FA RB for a tryout, or Bell/Wolfe getting more carries, Forte's value is going to head even lower. It happens to all "replaceable RBs". It's the majority of RB's in the NFL.

 

[Football Jones]

Where people go wrong is uttering the words "not that talented". Forte is NOT a mediocre RB, but I digress.

Forte will no doubt prove he's talented...& he'll be a big-time value in 2010.

 

[Football Jones]

BTW, RB12 is his floor in 2010 (where he finished in 2009). No doubt he'll improve on this season in a year where everything went wrong.

It seems to me his detractors are waiting for somebody to take his place, but that simply isn't likely to happen.

In the age of disappearing feature backs, Forte chugs along. Underappreciated, but talented.

 

[corpcow]

Football Jones, no one said he has *NO* value... what we've said from the start - and bear in mind this thread started BEFORE the 2009 season - was that his perceived value at the end of the 2008 season (a top 5 dynasty back) was WAY too high.

I'll be honest - I was never particularly impressed with Forte as compared to Kevin Smith, CJ, etc. Last year, I ended up with Forte in one of my leagues with 1.05 but only because Kevin Smith was already gone. In another, he fell to 1.05 but I took CJ instead. In one league where I had 1.04, I passed on Forte to take Kevin Smith instead because, frankly, I was more impressed by his games.

When do the excuses end with Forte? As we said last year, his top 3 finish was the result of an EXTRAORDINARY opportunity that was unlikely to continue even for someone like ADP, CJ, MJD, SJax, etc. Worse yet, he did the LEAST with his touches in NFL terms. (Because remember you don't get a PPR in the NFL..... so Orton dumping off for a loss or a 2 yard gain on 3rd down doesn't help the team and dosn't mean he'll stay as involved one you have a QB other than Sgt Swingpass and a decent WR1). What myself and EBF were preaching is to be careful about his numbers because, if that extraordinary opportunity becomes even just good opportunity, he's suddenly a RB2 instead of a top5 "franchise" kind of guy.

Forte defenders kept saying his YPC was so low because the offense was so bad, but that bringing in Cutler would fix everything because they couldn't just key up on him. Of course, Cutler was a bit o a disaster here, but Forte's YPC went down. Even if he maintained his 3.9 YPC frm last year, his opportunity was down roughly 20%. TDs are, as I've posted repeatedly, very variable year to year, but even if you expect an increase to, say, 8-10 total TDS he's still disappointing at that ADP.

While it's an unfair comparison because they both rushed muhch less than Forte, why were Wolfe and Bell both able to average 5.5 YPC this year on 60 combined carries, while Forte was only able to average 3.6? Where was the "superior hip flexion" in the 3.9 YPC last year, when again he averaged the lowest YPC (even though he again had by far the most opportunity)?

Fundamentally, it comes down to this - even after this down year, his upside isn't that high much compared to his market value (where he's still valued as a top 10 dynasty back) and his downside (losing his job) is great. If he loses his job (or his opportunity decreases because of competition), his value drops to nearly nothing because he is not - and was never - someone who does a lot with his carries... he's someone who is highly dependent on that opportunity to produce FF numbers. That doesn't mean he shouldn't be drafted/traded for if the price is right, but IMO if you pay a top 10 dynasty back price for him you WILL be disappointed.

For example, in one of my leagues, an owner who had a very good team but was hurting at young RBs traded for Forte at the beginning of Nov. In order to get Forte and Crabtree, he gave up J-Stew, Andre Johnson and Mario Williams.

 

[gianmarco]

BTW, RB12 is his floor in 2010 (where he finished in 2009). No doubt he'll improve on this season in a year where everything went wrong.It seems to me his detractors are waiting for somebody to take his place, but that simply isn't likely to happen.In the age of disappearing feature backs, Forte chugs along. Underappreciated, but talented.

No one is saying he won't get his points as long as he gets the touches. Here is the bigger questionoes Forte finish the 2011 season as the feature back?I'm not in disagreement with you that he has a relatively high floor in 2010. Where the issue is is that for dynasty purposes, which is what this thread is about, is Forte a guy you want to build a team around? Do you think he gets through the next 2 years as the full-time starter as he currently is and keeps the job beyond that? Once you've answered that question, then we can proceed as to where his value might really lie. If you don't care if he is at that point as you don't plan for that far ahead, then you have no argument from me. He's a safe bet for at least 2010 and possibly/likely for 2011. Safe floor, decent guy to own.If you don't think he's going to be beyond 2011 but still want to stick with him for now as he'll still retain some value, then I'll go along with that as well.If you think he's so talented that he'll likely keep the job beyond 2011 and that's why he's a buy low, then I'm in complete disagreement. I highly doubt if he keeps producing pedestrian numbers like he has (good total numbers only because of massive amount of touches) that he'll remain the starter after the next 2 years.