[DYNASTY] Matt Forte (2 Viewers)

[Football Jones]

BTW, RB12 is his floor in 2010 (where he finished in 2009). No doubt he'll improve on this season in a year where everything went wrong.It seems to me his detractors are waiting for somebody to take his place, but that simply isn't likely to happen.In the age of disappearing feature backs, Forte chugs along. Underappreciated, but talented.

No one is saying he won't get his points as long as he gets the touches. Here is the bigger questionoes Forte finish the 2011 season as the feature back?I'm not in disagreement with you that he has a relatively high floor in 2010. Where the issue is is that for dynasty purposes, which is what this thread is about, is Forte a guy you want to build a team around? Do you think he gets through the next 2 years as the full-time starter as he currently is and keeps the job beyond that? Once you've answered that question, then we can proceed as to where his value might really lie. If you don't care if he is at that point as you don't plan for that far ahead, then you have no argument from me. He's a safe bet for at least 2010 and possibly/likely for 2011. Safe floor, decent guy to own.If you don't think he's going to be beyond 2011 but still want to stick with him for now as he'll still retain some value, then I'll go along with that as well.If you think he's so talented that he'll likely keep the job beyond 2011 and that's why he's a buy low, then I'm in complete disagreement. I highly doubt if he keeps producing pedestrian numbers like he has (good total numbers only because of massive amount of touches) that he'll remain the starter after the next 2 years.

My 2010 forecast is only one of the reasons I'm so high on Forte, but yes, I believe he'll be their feature back in 2011, as well. That's in part due to the Bears coming together as an offense in 2010. There will be no need to go get a RB in the 2011 draft because Forte is going to excel in 2010.That said, it's not like I can't sell after 2010. In short, Forte is one of the better buys in dynasty leagues right now. One reason is you'll have a lot of options after the 2010 season.

 

[Football Jones]

Football Jones, no one said he has *NO* value... what we've said from the start - and bear in mind this thread started BEFORE the 2009 season - was that his perceived value at the end of the 2008 season (a top 5 dynasty back) was WAY too high. I'll be honest - I was never particularly impressed with Forte as compared to Kevin Smith, CJ, etc. Last year, I ended up with Forte in one of my leagues with 1.05 but only because Kevin Smith was already gone. In another, he fell to 1.05 but I took CJ instead. In one league where I had 1.04, I passed on Forte to take Kevin Smith instead because, frankly, I was more impressed by his games. When do the excuses end with Forte? As we said last year, his top 3 finish was the result of an EXTRAORDINARY opportunity that was unlikely to continue even for someone like ADP, CJ, MJD, SJax, etc. Worse yet, he did the LEAST with his touches in NFL terms. (Because remember you don't get a PPR in the NFL..... so Orton dumping off for a loss or a 2 yard gain on 3rd down doesn't help the team and dosn't mean he'll stay as involved one you have a QB other than Sgt Swingpass and a decent WR1). What myself and EBF were preaching is to be careful about his numbers because, if that extraordinary opportunity becomes even just good opportunity, he's suddenly a RB2 instead of a top5 "franchise" kind of guy.Forte defenders kept saying his YPC was so low because the offense was so bad, but that bringing in Cutler would fix everything because they couldn't just key up on him. Of course, Cutler was a bit o a disaster here, but Forte's YPC went down. Even if he maintained his 3.9 YPC frm last year, his opportunity was down roughly 20%. TDs are, as I've posted repeatedly, very variable year to year, but even if you expect an increase to, say, 8-10 total TDS he's still disappointing at that ADP.While it's an unfair comparison because they both rushed muhch less than Forte, why were Wolfe and Bell both able to average 5.5 YPC this year on 60 combined carries, while Forte was only able to average 3.6? Where was the "superior hip flexion" in the 3.9 YPC last year, when again he averaged the lowest YPC (even though he again had by far the most opportunity)?Fundamentally, it comes down to this - even after this down year, his upside isn't that high much compared to his market value (where he's still valued as a top 10 dynasty back) and his downside (losing his job) is great. If he loses his job (or his opportunity decreases because of competition), his value drops to nearly nothing because he is not - and was never - someone who does a lot with his carries... he's someone who is highly dependent on that opportunity to produce FF numbers. That doesn't mean he shouldn't be drafted/traded for if the price is right, but IMO if you pay a top 10 dynasty back price for him you WILL be disappointed. For example, in one of my leagues, an owner who had a very good team but was hurting at young RBs traded for Forte at the beginning of Nov. In order to get Forte and Crabtree, he gave up J-Stew, Andre Johnson and Mario Williams.

Like I've said numerous times, judging FF talent by YPC is a dangerous practice. Wolfe & Bell aren't even in the same league.You can believe the injuries were an excuse, but I believe they were a significant factor. As far as Forte's superior hip flexion, it helped him attain a 3.9 YPC in 2008 behind & a poor OL & with below-average skill-position help. Forte also managed to finish as RB2 that season. And he finished as RB12 this past season in a year where everything went wrong.Little things make a big difference in the NFL. With continued improvement from the OL as well as from Cutler/Knox/Aromashodu/Bennett/Hester, a healthy Forte will be a huge value in 2010. If he can finish at RB12 in 2009, no telling what he can do in 2010. I expect big-time FF production.I keep hearing he's going to get replaced, but when? I can't see it anytime soon. In the meantime, he's going to help a lot of teams win FF games.My advice is to buy now & then re-evaluate after 2010. I believe you'll have a lot of options at that point.

 

[squistion]

No one is saying he won't get his points as long as he gets the touches. Here is the bigger question:

Does Forte finish the 2011 season as the feature back?

I'm not in disagreement with you that he has a relatively high floor in 2010. Where the issue is is that for dynasty purposes, which is what this thread is about, is Forte a guy you want to build a team around? Do you think he gets through the next 2 years as the full-time starter as he currently is and keeps the job beyond that? Once you've answered that question, then we can proceed as to where his value might really lie.

If you don't care if he is at that point as you don't plan for that far ahead, then you have no argument from me. He's a safe bet for at least 2010 and possibly/likely for 2011. Safe floor, decent guy to own.

If you don't think he's going to be beyond 2011 but still want to stick with him for now as he'll still retain some value, then I'll go along with that as well.

If you think he's so talented that he'll likely keep the job beyond 2011 and that's why he's a buy low, then I'm in complete disagreement. I highly doubt if he keeps producing pedestrian numbers like he has (good total numbers only because of massive amount of touches) that he'll remain the starter after the next 2 years.

Speaking for myself and not Football Jones, if I am trying to acquire him in Dynasty leagues, I am assuming he will finish the 2011 season as the feature back, but I am not really thinking that far ahead, as the 2010 season will probably answer the question as to his long term value definitively, either way.In answer to your second question, in a start up Dynasty league, I would not try to build my team around him, but he would be a player that would be on my target list. If the 2010 season then confirms the naysayers here, I would work around that, as usually one player doesn't ever make or break my team.

 

[Instinctive]

No one is saying he won't get his points as long as he gets the touches. Here is the bigger question:

Does Forte finish the 2011 season as the feature back?

I'm not in disagreement with you that he has a relatively high floor in 2010. Where the issue is is that for dynasty purposes, which is what this thread is about, is Forte a guy you want to build a team around? Do you think he gets through the next 2 years as the full-time starter as he currently is and keeps the job beyond that? Once you've answered that question, then we can proceed as to where his value might really lie.

If you don't care if he is at that point as you don't plan for that far ahead, then you have no argument from me. He's a safe bet for at least 2010 and possibly/likely for 2011. Safe floor, decent guy to own.

If you don't think he's going to be beyond 2011 but still want to stick with him for now as he'll still retain some value, then I'll go along with that as well.

If you think he's so talented that he'll likely keep the job beyond 2011 and that's why he's a buy low, then I'm in complete disagreement. I highly doubt if he keeps producing pedestrian numbers like he has (good total numbers only because of massive amount of touches) that he'll remain the starter after the next 2 years.

Speaking for myself and not Football Jones, if I am trying to acquire him in Dynasty leagues, I am assuming he will finish the 2011 season as the feature back, but I am not really thinking that far ahead, as the 2010 season will probably answer the question as to his long term value definitively, either way.In answer to your second question, in a start up Dynasty league, I would not try to build my team around him, but he would be a player that would be on my target list. If the 2010 season then confirms the naysayers here, I would work around that, as usually one player doesn't ever make or break my team.

Heck, I'd be trying to acquire him too. For something worth about the market value for RB20.As said earlier, if he is the feature, he'll be great in Fantasy because of opportunity.

Chester Taylor was great because of opportunity behind one of the best lines in football...Minnesota brought in Adrian Peterson because per touch, Taylor wasn't meeting the cut.

Tim Hightower put up pretty decent stats last season, but his NFL per touch numbers were incredibly bad. One of the onyl people worse than Forte. And they drafted Beanie Wells.

Joseph Addai was great in Fantasy for a couple seasons...but his NFL per touch numbers were subpar, so they brought in Donald Brown.

In 2005, Fred Taylor's ypc dipped half a yard (to 4.1) from his previous 7 year career consistent average of 4.6 ypc. And Jacksonville brought in MJD.

In 2007 LenDale White was a major Fantasy force with over 300 carries and 20 receptions...but his per touch NFL numbers were nearly identical to Forte's rookie season(it's actually kinda freaky) and the next year they brought in Chris Johnson. LenDale had a pretty good season in 2008 (like Forte in 2009) and then in 2009...the better back on his team got the ball and the transition was complete.

In 2007 Willis McGahee had an extremely good fantasy season, with over 1200 yards and 7 TDs...but his per touch numbers were below average and his team brought in Ray Rice the next season to be his replacement.

Man, I could keep doing this for so long. But I won't. I think you all get the point. Crappy per touch NFL stats is a direct influence on being replaced quickly at the RB position.

 

[squistion]

As said earlier, if he is the feature, he'll be great in Fantasy because of opportunity. Man, I could keep doing this for so long. But I won't. I think you all get the point. Crappy per touch NFL stats is a direct influence on being replaced quickly at the RB position.

That is where we disagree. I don't think his success will be because of opportunity. I think the talent is there irrespective of the past per touch numbers. Unlike many here, I don't make my decisions based entirely on statistics - and I know that goes against the grain for many reading this. However, over the years, in my leagues I have done better with my less scientific approach than those who are the pure number crunchers (perhaps I have just been lucky)Time will tell us who is right about Forte.

 

[Instinctive]

As said earlier, if he is the feature, he'll be great in Fantasy because of opportunity.

Man, I could keep doing this for so long. But I won't. I think you all get the point. Crappy per touch NFL stats is a direct influence on being replaced quickly at the RB position.

That is where we disagree. I don't think his success will be because of opportunity. I think the talent is there irrespective of the past per touch numbers. Unlike many here, I don't make my decisions based entirely on statistics - and I know that goes against the grain for many reading this. However, over the years, in my leagues I have done better with my less scientific approach than those who are the pure number crunchers (perhaps I have just been lucky)

Time will tell us who is right about Forte.

Indeed it will. Although I do not appreciate the insinuation that I don't look past the numbers. I have said many times that regardless of the numbers, Forte seems to just go down to easily, generally lacks the ability to breakaway, and can't make something out of nothing like the most talented backs in the NFL can.ETA: interesting that you only quote the parts you wish...when there are an incredible amount of precedents for backs just as talented as (or moreso than) Forte...who all got replaced.

 

[squistion]

Although I do not appreciate the insinuation that I don't look past the numbers.

ETA: interesting that you only quote the parts you wish...when there are an incredible amount of precedents for backs just as talented as (or moreso than) Forte...who all got replaced.

Well, you did say, "Crappy per touch NFL stats is a direct influence on being replaced quickly at the RB position." And your ETA also suggests you are pretty stat oriented. If I offended you I am sorry, perhaps indeed you really are instinctive.

 

[Instinctive]

Although I do not appreciate the insinuation that I don't look past the numbers.

ETA: interesting that you only quote the parts you wish...when there are an incredible amount of precedents for backs just as talented as (or moreso than) Forte...who all got replaced.

Well, you did say, "Crappy per touch NFL stats is a direct influence on being replaced quickly at the RB position." And your ETA also suggests you are pretty stat oriented. If I offended you I am sorry, perhaps indeed you really are instinctive.

Huh. You only quoted parts of the post, out of context and pushed together so it looks like an entire quote. Again.And they are a direct influence...are you disputing that? One can recognize a trend and have a pre-statistical opinion as well, they are not mutually exlusive.

 

[corpcow]

Like I've said numerous times, judging FF talent by YPC is a dangerous practice. Wolfe & Bell aren't even in the same league.You can believe the injuries were an excuse, but I believe they were a significant factor. As far as Forte's superior hip flexion, it helped him attain a 3.9 YPC in 2008 behind & a poor OL & with below-average skill-position help. Forte also managed to finish as RB2 that season. And he finished as RB12 this past season in a year where everything went wrong.Little things make a big difference in the NFL. With continued improvement from the OL as well as from Cutler/Knox/Aromashodu/Bennett/Hester, a healthy Forte will be a huge value in 2010. If he can finish at RB12 in 2009, no telling what he can do in 2010. I expect big-time FF production.I keep hearing he's going to get replaced, but when? I can't see it anytime soon. In the meantime, he's going to help a lot of teams win FF games.My advice is to buy now & then re-evaluate after 2010. I believe you'll have a lot of options at that point.

You're missing the point... but then you've chosen to ignore that same point that we keep making over and over. I'm not basing my assessment of his TALENT on YPC... I've said repeatedly that I was never really impressed with him. The only reason I have brought up YPC is because it's an objective piece and it highlights how his OPPORTUNITY has shaped the fantasy numbers you like so much, not his production itself. No one denies that his 2008 fantasy production was excellent, nor that his numbers still weren't terrible. That said, if you think he's a special talent, well, we'll just have to agree to disagree. The times I've watched him, I just didn't see that.... I didn't see the same thing I saw when watching, say, Turner, or Ray Rice, or CJ, etc etc. The issue with him is not a small sample size... it's that he's gotten a ton of carries already two years in, and he has little production relative to those touches. He's unlikely to ever get MORE opportunity than he had in year one... so you'd have to expect a significant increase in production just to offset any reduction in opportunity (which as we saw was 20% down this year). Personally, I believe his year one will be at or near his career best, and I don't think he presents significant upside from that year especially compared to what that did to his price.Let's try a different approach: if you're buying now, what price are you paying? Have you seen him be traded in any leagues and, if so, for how much?Every indication I've seen up until Jan is that his "buy low" price is still a top 10 young franchise back... multiple firsts or equivalent studs. At that price, the cost-benefit analysis is very risky, IMO.As I said previously:

Fundamentally, it comes down to this - even after this down year, his upside isn't that high much compared to his market value (where he's still valued as a top 10 dynasty back) and his downside (losing his job) is great. If he loses his job (or his opportunity decreases because of competition), his value drops to nearly nothing because he is not - and was never - someone who does a lot with his carries... he's someone who is highly dependent on that opportunity to produce FF numbers. That doesn't mean he shouldn't be drafted/traded for if the price is right, but IMO if you pay a top 10 dynasty back price for him you WILL be disappointed. For example, in one of my leagues, an owner who had a very good team but was hurting at young RBs traded for Forte at the beginning of Nov. In order to get Forte and Crabtree, he gave up J-Stew, Andre Johnson and Mario Williams.

 

[Football Jones]

Like I've said numerous times, judging FF talent by YPC is a dangerous practice. Wolfe & Bell aren't even in the same league.You can believe the injuries were an excuse, but I believe they were a significant factor. As far as Forte's superior hip flexion, it helped him attain a 3.9 YPC in 2008 behind & a poor OL & with below-average skill-position help. Forte also managed to finish as RB2 that season. And he finished as RB12 this past season in a year where everything went wrong.Little things make a big difference in the NFL. With continued improvement from the OL as well as from Cutler/Knox/Aromashodu/Bennett/Hester, a healthy Forte will be a huge value in 2010. If he can finish at RB12 in 2009, no telling what he can do in 2010. I expect big-time FF production.I keep hearing he's going to get replaced, but when? I can't see it anytime soon. In the meantime, he's going to help a lot of teams win FF games.My advice is to buy now & then re-evaluate after 2010. I believe you'll have a lot of options at that point.

You're missing the point... but then you've chosen to ignore that same point that we keep making over and over. I'm not basing my assessment of his TALENT on YPC... I've said repeatedly that I was never really impressed with him. The only reason I have brought up YPC is because it's an objective piece and it highlights how his OPPORTUNITY has shaped the fantasy numbers you like so much, not his production itself. No one denies that his 2008 fantasy production was excellent, nor that his numbers still weren't terrible. That said, if you think he's a special talent, well, we'll just have to agree to disagree. The times I've watched him, I just didn't see that.... I didn't see the same thing I saw when watching, say, Turner, or Ray Rice, or CJ, etc etc. The issue with him is not a small sample size... it's that he's gotten a ton of carries already two years in, and he has little production relative to those touches. He's unlikely to ever get MORE opportunity than he had in year one... so you'd have to expect a significant increase in production just to offset any reduction in opportunity (which as we saw was 20% down this year). Personally, I believe his year one will be at or near his career best, and I don't think he presents significant upside from that year especially compared to what that did to his price.Let's try a different approach: if you're buying now, what price are you paying? Have you seen him be traded in any leagues and, if so, for how much?Every indication I've seen up until Jan is that his "buy low" price is still a top 10 young franchise back... multiple firsts or equivalent studs. At that price, the cost-benefit analysis is very risky, IMO.As I said previously:

Fundamentally, it comes down to this - even after this down year, his upside isn't that high much compared to his market value (where he's still valued as a top 10 dynasty back) and his downside (losing his job) is great. If he loses his job (or his opportunity decreases because of competition), his value drops to nearly nothing because he is not - and was never - someone who does a lot with his carries... he's someone who is highly dependent on that opportunity to produce FF numbers. That doesn't mean he shouldn't be drafted/traded for if the price is right, but IMO if you pay a top 10 dynasty back price for him you WILL be disappointed. For example, in one of my leagues, an owner who had a very good team but was hurting at young RBs traded for Forte at the beginning of Nov. In order to get Forte and Crabtree, he gave up J-Stew, Andre Johnson and Mario Williams.

Trust me...I'm not missing any points. I know exactly what you're trying to tell me. Problem is...I don't buy it.Forte is WAY more talented than he's being made out to be by some people. Absolutely no question.Bottom line...he's currently got no competition, will likely not have any competition in 2010, & finished at RB12 in a season where everything possible went wrong.RB12 is his floor in 2010...& that's a good thing. He'll also be their feature back heading into 2011, as well. Not sure what else to explain. If you don't believe that, then you don't believe it. It's that simple. BTW, you won't have to pay a top-10 price for Forte. That's why I have him as a buy. Not sure where he'll go, but he's going to be a helluva bargain from what I can tell.

 

[Football Jones]

BTW, it's hard to tell what it would take to get him in a trade. The owners who have him very likely got him as a rookie & know what they have. I doubt there's many Forte trades that go down. Probably very, very few.

 

[squistion]

BTW, it's hard to tell what it would take to get him in a trade. The owners who have him very likely got him as a rookie & know what they have. I doubt there's many Forte trades that go down. Probably very, very few.

That's for sure - very difficult to guage. It will be an individual thing, turning on how disappointed the Forte owner was with his 2009 year. People usually just remember the prior season and how their team fared, so many are probably ready to jump ship if you can come up with the right offer. If they have any depth at the RB position, it shouldn't take that much to pry him loose. If they don't have the depth, I would try some package deal that includes a serviceable RB.

 

[switz]

Forte is WAY more talented than he's being made out to be by some people. Absolutely no question.Bottom line...he's currently got no competition, will likely not have any competition in 2010, & finished at RB12 in a season where everything possible went wrong.RB12 is his floor in 2010...& that's a good thing. He'll also be their feature back heading into 2011, as well. Not sure what else to explain. If you don't believe that, then you don't believe it. It's that simple. BTW, you won't have to pay a top-10 price for Forte. That's why I have him as a buy. Not sure where he'll go, but he's going to be a helluva bargain from what I can tell.

Where would you rank Forte's talent among NFL RBs right now?As for no competition, he had competition from two players this year, one of which had two game with 11 carries, that's a pretty big cut into Forte's opportunity.As for his talent, it's arguable that he's even the most talented RB on the Bears. Both Wolfe and Bell outperformed him on a per carry basis. Behind the same OL. Bell was running in all situations as well, not just 3rd and long, or easy yardage situations.You say Forte suffered this year due to injury, but what was his excuse for a bad per carry performance last season?Fact is, he's just not a very good RB.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

The trajectory of Forte's career doesn't totally depend on how he plays. If Jay Cutler can turn his late season momentum into a good 2010 and the Bears hire an inspired OC that spreads opposing defenses with the array of weapons the Bears have in the passing game, Forte could be a huge statistical beneficiary running against nickel defenses and generally getting set up with more scoring and big play opportunities. The Bears don't have a high enough pick in the draft this year to take a back destined to replace Forte, and if Cutler has a strong 2010 to allow the passing game to set up the running game, they won't be looking to take on in 2011 or 2012 either.

 

[switz]

The trajectory of Forte's career doesn't totally depend on how he plays. If Jay Cutler can turn his late season momentum into a good 2010 and the Bears hire an inspired OC that spreads opposing defenses with the array of weapons the Bears have in the passing game, Forte could be a huge statistical beneficiary running against nickel defenses and generally getting set up with more scoring and big play opportunities. The Bears don't have a high enough pick in the draft this year to take a back destined to replace Forte, and if Cutler has a strong 2010 to allow the passing game to set up the running game, they won't be looking to take on in 2011 or 2012 either.

Yet the Colts do just that, and still took a back to complement Addai. And as everyone knows, I think Addai is far more talented than Forte, but his production wasn't up to snuff though about 20 games, so the Colts needed to do something. The Bears may end up in the same position with Forte.

 

[Chunky Soup]

As for his talent, it's arguable that he's even the most talented RB on the Bears. Both Wolfe and Bell outperformed him on a per carry basis. Behind the same OL. Bell was running in all situations as well, not just 3rd and long, or easy yardage situations.

Is Rashad Jennings more talented than MJD?

As for no competition, he had competition from two players this year, one of which had two game with 11 carries, that's a pretty big cut into Forte's opportunity.

Is Chester Taylor more talented than Adrian Peterson? He had 5 games of 7+ carries, including 1 of 11 carries.Sometimes you just give a guy a rest Pretty common these days.

 

[JuSt CuZ]

Simple...Forte was hurt, and he has the love from Lovie...

He is still a very good talent.

I'd like to see you guys shovel snow on a sprained MCL, let alone play football!

He will be back to a great talent next year, and glad I'm sitting on him in one league.

Oh....and who catches the passes and get the goal line carries in ChiTown? EXACTLY!

He is a big steal next year!

He will perform mor at the top 5 level he was getting this year, next year!

290/1300/9 55/630/3

....next year baby!

 

[thevidon]

Simple...Forte was hurt, and he has the love from Lovie...He is still a very good talent.I'd like to see you guys shovel snow on a sprained MCL, let alone play football!He will be back to a great talent next year, and glad I'm sitting on him in one league.Oh....and who catches the passes and get the goal line carries in ChiTown? EXACTLY!He is a big steal next year!He will perform mor at the top 5 level he was getting this year, next year!290/1300/9 55/630/3....next year baby!

Why are the Forte supporters missing the point over and over? Nobody is saying that Forte CANT produce, or that he WONT produce if he gets force fed the ball. The point is that due to his average overall talent level as a runner, he could be replaced in the offense a lot easier than a true elite talent like Gore, Peterson etc.If Chicago has no other RB to challenge him next year then he could easily have 1500 combined yards and 10+ TDs again. If they bring in even semi-serious competition it could quickly turn into a RBBC situation and Forte has pretty awful per touch numbers - which means his value would plummet.

 

[switz]

As for his talent, it's arguable that he's even the most talented RB on the Bears. Both Wolfe and Bell outperformed him on a per carry basis. Behind the same OL. Bell was running in all situations as well, not just 3rd and long, or easy yardage situations.

Is Rashad Jennings more talented than MJD?

As for no competition, he had competition from two players this year, one of which had two game with 11 carries, that's a pretty big cut into Forte's opportunity.

Is Chester Taylor more talented than Adrian Peterson? He had 5 games of 7+ carries, including 1 of 11 carries.Sometimes you just give a guy a rest Pretty common these days.

And sometimes there's a different reason MJD 312 carries, 53 receptions - guy obviously needed a rest at times

ADP 314 carries, 43 receptions - also obviously needed a rest at times

Matt Forte - 258 carries, 57 receptions - not quite the same workload

 

[Instinctive]

As for his talent, it's arguable that he's even the most talented RB on the Bears. Both Wolfe and Bell outperformed him on a per carry basis. Behind the same OL. Bell was running in all situations as well, not just 3rd and long, or easy yardage situations.

Is Rashad Jennings more talented than MJD?

As for no competition, he had competition from two players this year, one of which had two game with 11 carries, that's a pretty big cut into Forte's opportunity.

Is Chester Taylor more talented than Adrian Peterson? He had 5 games of 7+ carries, including 1 of 11 carries.Sometimes you just give a guy a rest Pretty common these days.

And sometimes there's a different reason MJD 312 carries, 53 receptions - guy obviously needed a rest at times

ADP 314 carries, 43 receptions - also obviously needed a rest at times

Matt Forte - 258 carries, 57 receptions - not quite the same workload

Sometimes you give a guy a rest? Not what happened there...in MJD/ADP cases...maybe they did this thing where their team was up by a lot of points, or where they had a playoff spot (ADP) and weren't used as much?In MJD's case...when Jennings got carrier it was after MJD got his. AFTER. iirc, jennings only got a significant amount of carries in games that MJD already had 20+ carries.

Bell and Wolfe got carries throughout, and it wasn't b/c Forte needed a rest...he didn't have as many carries as normal in those games. huh. Like what happens when a back has competition and/or a RBBC situation.

 

[Pauli Walnuts]

Geez, this thread really has me considering the James Davis, Julius Jones, Arian Foster package I was offered for Forte in a 12 team PPR dynasty. I originally thought it was pretty lopsided against me.

 

[Instinctive]

Geez, this thread really has me considering the James Davis, Julius Jones, Arian Foster package I was offered for Forte in a 12 team PPR dynasty. I originally thought it was pretty lopsided against me.

It is. Unless you think Davis is the starter in CLE soon and Foster takes over ot share with Slaton in HOU (and they run not pass every down).I would not do that trade, and I'm way down on Forte.

 

[Chunky Soup]

As for his talent, it's arguable that he's even the most talented RB on the Bears. Both Wolfe and Bell outperformed him on a per carry basis. Behind the same OL. Bell was running in all situations as well, not just 3rd and long, or easy yardage situations.

Is Rashad Jennings more talented than MJD?

As for no competition, he had competition from two players this year, one of which had two game with 11 carries, that's a pretty big cut into Forte's opportunity.

Is Chester Taylor more talented than Adrian Peterson? He had 5 games of 7+ carries, including 1 of 11 carries.Sometimes you just give a guy a rest Pretty common these days.

And sometimes there's a different reason MJD 312 carries, 53 receptions - guy obviously needed a rest at times

ADP 314 carries, 43 receptions - also obviously needed a rest at times

Matt Forte - 258 carries, 57 receptions - not quite the same workload

Sometimes you give a guy a rest? Not what happened there...in MJD/ADP cases...maybe they did this thing where their team was up by a lot of points, or where they had a playoff spot (ADP) and weren't used as much?In MJD's case...when Jennings got carrier it was after MJD got his. AFTER. iirc, jennings only got a significant amount of carries in games that MJD already had 20+ carries.

Bell and Wolfe got carries throughout, and it wasn't b/c Forte needed a rest...he didn't have as many carries as normal in those games. huh. Like what happens when a back has competition and/or a RBBC situation.

Forte had 258/327 carries by RBs on the Bears. (78%)

Peterson had 314/423 carries by RBs on the Vikings. (74%)

Who, if anyone, was in the RBBC?

And again: Rashad Jennings had higher YPC than MJD. Is Jennings better? I want to hear how this amazing Switzian logic works. Thanks.

 

[Otis]

BTW, it's hard to tell what it would take to get him in a trade. The owners who have him very likely got him as a rookie & know what they have. I doubt there's many Forte trades that go down. Probably very, very few.

Just picked him up in a trade yesterday in my dynasty league

 

[Instinctive]

Sometimes you give a guy a rest? Not what happened there...in MJD/ADP cases...maybe they did this thing where their team was up by a lot of points, or where they had a playoff spot (ADP) and weren't used as much?In MJD's case...when Jennings got carrier it was after MJD got his. AFTER. iirc, jennings only got a significant amount of carries in games that MJD already had 20+ carries. Bell and Wolfe got carries throughout, and it wasn't b/c Forte needed a rest...he didn't have as many carries as normal in those games. huh. Like what happens when a back has competition and/or a RBBC situation.

Forte had 258/327 carries by RBs on the Bears. (78%)Peterson had 314/423 carries by RBs on the Vikings. (74%)Who, if anyone, was in the RBBC?And again: Rashad Jennings had higher YPC than MJD. Is Jennings better? I want to hear how this amazing Switzian logic works. Thanks.

Don't lump me in with Switz. It makes me look bad because of his reputation (which I don't necessarily agree with but whatever)Neither RB was in a committee. That was Switz's extreme statement. We all know Jennings is not better, for 4 years MJD has had the best conversion percentage of inside the five carries to TDs. (among backs with significant attempts, not guys who were 1/1)Forte, however, because he is not at all an elite or transcendent talent, is much more likely than you average RB to get replaced. It's almost like people had this discussion when Rudi Johnson started in Cincy..........Anyway:Forte: 9 games under 20 carriesPeterson: 8 games under 20 carriesOf those games aloneForte: 3 games over the simple task of 50 rushing yards. SIX times he didn't reach 50 yards...and once he got to 51 so.....Peterson: 2 games UNDER 50. Huh. That means he was 6/8 over. Not 3/9. Is 75% better than 33% (and a bad spot away from 22%)??????? I always thought it was.How about Touchdowns, the real moneymaker of Fantasy Football?In all of his season, Peterson had only 4 games without a TD. One of those games he had 143 rushing yards. So 3 games without a TD. Another he reached 100 total yards. So in 2 games, Peterson hurt you. Otherwise, he was at his very worst average, and a double digit scorer.In Forte's season...he had 13 games without a TD. Wow. That's way more than 4. He reached 100 combined yards in 4 of those games, 100 rushing yards in only one of them.So he had a solid 9 games where he definitively hurt you. Now let's take a look at how many games Forte got to 50 rushing yards at all, since that is generally how a team measure the success of a RB they use on first and second down:9 games, one of which was 51 yards. So half the time, he got them 50 yards. Man Peterson only failed to reach that TWICE.75 yards? Forte didn't make it to 75 twelve times, or 75% of his season. Peterson? Half that. And he got TDs.Now, I could be wrong, but all of those factors sure do make Forte seem like a pretty replaceable guy. Even when he did get significant carries (over 20, let's say, because this looks worse for him when you say over 15) he reached 75 yards TWICE. So, across the entire season, when the Chicago Bears decided to give their uberstud RB the ball 20 times or more, which was 7 times, he reached that 75 yard mark twice. 2/7 times he got 20+ carries, he reached 75 yards only twice. That would be, oh what's the word....oh yeah, "replaceable production."By comparison: Jerome Harrison got more than 120 yards EVERY TIME he got 20+ carries (that is 4 times)Marion Barber had more rushing yards despite 40 fewer carries and rumors of injury.....Mike Bell never failed ot hit 100 yards in a game with more than 20 carriesIn 4 games of 20+ carries, Michael Turner made it to the 75 yard mark more than Forte. 3 times. In half the games of 20+ carries, he had more 20 carry games over 75 yards.In Fred Jackson's 3 20 carry games, he hit the mark all 3 times, with 99, 128, and 212. Wow, Forte never made it past 121...and he only got past one hundred two times all year.In 4 games of 20+ carries, Jamaal Charles reach one hundred yards (not just 75) all 4 times. Once he hit 259. More than twice as much as Forte's absolute best game of the year. Oh, and he had 7 TDs to Forte's 4, despite starting less than half as many games.Ricky Williams got 20 carries four times. He hit 100 yards...FOUR times. Huh.Laurence Maroney got to 20 carries 4 times, and had more than 75 yards in all 4.LeSean McCoy...two for twoRonnie Brown, 2/3 (the third he had 74 yards...)Knowshon Moreno, 3 out of 4Jonathan Stewart? FOUR out of FOUR...went over 100 yardsRyan Moats, one for one (over 100)Ryan Grant, the best comparison as a guy often said to be replaceable, and with a comparably terrible line...was SIX out of SEVEN. Huh, that's literally three times what Forte got. Just off hand, would you rather have Forte than Grant? By the way, almost every one of his hit 90+.

 

[FF King]

BTW, it's hard to tell what it would take to get him in a trade. The owners who have him very likely got him as a rookie & know what they have. I doubt there's many Forte trades that go down. Probably very, very few.

Just picked him up in a trade yesterday in my dynasty league

Yep, I got Forte as well. I got Forte and the 2.01 (12 team league) for Jerome Harrison, Maurice Morris and 1.05. Dynasty league. I have Fitz and Calvin ... I needed a RB and knowing this league, Dez Bryant would have fallen to 1.05 (non PPR).

 

[Instinctive]

BTW, it's hard to tell what it would take to get him in a trade. The owners who have him very likely got him as a rookie & know what they have. I doubt there's many Forte trades that go down. Probably very, very few.

Just picked him up in a trade yesterday in my dynasty league

Yep, I got Forte as well. I got Forte and the 2.01 (12 team league) for Jerome Harrison, Maurice Morris and 1.05. Dynasty league. I have Fitz and Calvin ... I needed a RB and knowing this league, Dez Bryant would have fallen to 1.05 (non PPR).

Dude, nice one---even I like that trade. Picks are overvalued, so to me it comes down to a tiny rokkie downgrade that means nought with a good pick by you at 2.01, and a slight upgrade from Harrison to Forte. Although i think Harrison has better talent running, less-so in pass blocking and an even worse situation.Onl way it comes back to bite you is if Harrison performs at his upside and is a bona fide stud.

 

[switz]

Forte had 258/327 carries by RBs on the Bears. (78%)Peterson had 314/423 carries by RBs on the Vikings. (74%)Who, if anyone, was in the RBBC?And again: Rashad Jennings had higher YPC than MJD. Is Jennings better? I want to hear how this amazing Switzian logic works. Thanks.

You're looking at it without context. Of course 74% is smaller than 78%, but number of touches is a more accurate picture of WHY another RB got touches. Peterson and Jones-Drew both had far more touches than Forte, so then it makes sense that they would see some other RB spell them from time to time. Fact is the Bears simply didn't run as much as the Vikes or Jaguars. One might initially say that's due to Cutler, but what about Favre in MIN? Yet MIN still ran much more than CHI, and largely because CHI (note: Forte) wasn't very good running the ball.As far as YPC goes, there is a huge difference between having a 0.7 YPC margin, on an RB that's already averaging 4.5 YPC, like in the case of Jones Drew and Jennings, as compared to a 1.9 YPC margin (almost 3x the difference between MJD & Jennings) like Bell has over Forte, especially when Forte's YPC was so low (3.6).With Jones-Drew, his performance is good enough to not worry at all about Jennings cutting too much into his touches, merely serving as a change of pace once in a while. Same thing with Peterson/Taylor. On the other hand, Forte's performance is so bad, that he's likely to see someone cut into his touches, and Bell performed so well in comparison that there is reason to think he would see more opportunity.Additionally, while MJD had 312 carries, Jennings had 39 (about 12.5% of the MJD's amount). On the other hand, Forte had only 258 carries, and Bell had 40 (15.5%) - Bell took more work away from Forte, than Jennings did MJD - another indication that the Bears weren't satisfied with Forte's production.

 

[switz]

Neither RB was in a committee. That was Switz's extreme statement.

Actually, I never said that. That was something you referred to in your post, which Chunky Soup replied to. And I know you weren't saying Forte WAS in an RBBC, but Chunky Soup obviously couldn't comprehend that.

Bell and Wolfe got carries throughout, and it wasn't b/c Forte needed a rest...he didn't have as many carries as normal in those games. huh. Like what happens when a back has competition and/or a RBBC situation.

 

[Instinctive]

Neither RB was in a committee. That was Switz's extreme statement.

Actually, I never said that. That was something you referred to in your post, which Chunky Soup replied to. And I know you weren't saying Forte WAS in an RBBC, but Chunky Soup obviously couldn't comprehend that.

Bell and Wolfe got carries throughout, and it wasn't b/c Forte needed a rest...he didn't have as many carries as normal in those games. huh. Like what happens when a back has competition and/or a RBBC situation.

Ahh thank you. And my apologies. And good point on comprehension. And that's even worse for chunky, since NEITHER of us said he was in a committee. Do we not teach reading anymore?

 

[EBF]

 

[JohnnyU]

I'm so glad I don't own him in any of my 8 leagues. IMO Taylor will get the bulk of the carries in Chicago in 2010. Forte is essentially worthless if that happens.

 

[Malabar]

I'm so glad I don't own him in any of my 8 leagues. IMO Taylor will get the bulk of the carries in Chicago in 2010. Forte is essentially worthless if that happens.

Trying to unload Chester in some of those 8 leagues?

 

[JohnnyU]

I'm so glad I don't own him in any of my 8 leagues. IMO Taylor will get the bulk of the carries in Chicago in 2010. Forte is essentially worthless if that happens.

Trying to unload Chester in some of those 8 leagues?

I only own Taylor in 1 of 8 leagues. I owned him in the league I own ADP. I could care less whether I trade Taylor.

 

[todd mcshay]

I'll take Felix. I think he has a little bit more upside because he's bigger. Johnson is a nice talent, but I don't see him ever being a featured back. His primary value lies in PPR.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

I'm so glad I don't own him in any of my 8 leagues. IMO Taylor will get the bulk of the carries in Chicago in 2010. Forte is essentially worthless if that happens.

Trying to unload Chester in some of those 8 leagues?

I only own Taylor in 1 of 8 leagues. I owned him in the league I own ADP. I could care less whether I trade Taylor.

How much less could you care?

 

[identikit]

I'll take Felix. I think he has a little bit more upside because he's bigger. Johnson is a nice talent, but I don't see him ever being a featured back. His primary value lies in PPR.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I will buy Forte in any league right now.

Injuries + bad OL account for last season.

His value is a bargain right now.

 

[JohnnyU]

I will buy Forte in any league right now.

Injuries + bad OL account for last season.

His value is a bargain right now.

This is what I call denial, but you're right, if you can get him for a 3rd rd rookie pick it's a great deal.

 

[EBF]

I'll take Felix. I think he has a little bit more upside because he's bigger. Johnson is a nice talent, but I don't see him ever being a featured back. His primary value lies in PPR.

Funny how people like to act as if they knew Chris Johnson would be a superstar all along. I'm in a lot of leagues and as far as I can remember he was never drafted earlier than 1.04 in any of my rookie drafts that season. He often fell to 1.07-1.08 and was generally drafted after all of the other first round RBs (and often behind Forte, Smith, and Rice). I was wrong on Chris Johnson. So was everyone else. You'll note that I didn't make a thread saying he was overrated after his rookie season.

 

[finito]

I will buy Forte in any league right now.

Injuries + bad OL account for last season.

His value is a bargain right now.

This is what I call denial, but you're right, if you can get him for a 3rd rd rookie pick it's a great deal.

I actually agree he is a good buy low. He did play hurt last season.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I will buy Forte in any league right now.

Injuries + bad OL account for last season.

His value is a bargain right now.

This is what I call denial, but you're right, if you can get him for a 3rd rd rookie pick it's a great deal.

No, this is called overreacting. Remember when TB signed Derrick Ward.In two years, 2,167 yards, 120 receptions 948 yards 16 total TDs....playing on a sprained MCL for 13 of those games.

Compare that to:

Felix Jones 951 yards, 21 receptions 129 yards 6 totall tds....but thats not overreacting...lol.

 

[Spark026]

Id rather have Derrick Ward riding my bench in my PPR league than Forte. Honestly think Ward has a better chance at turing things around in Tampa.

I think Forte will be an back-up RB, and a fantasy after thought 2 years from now.

I'll admit, if I currently owned Forte, I'd hold him and hope the he proves me wrong. But I wouldn't hold my breath.

 

[az_prof]

No one is saying he won't get his points as long as he gets the touches. Here is the bigger question:

Does Forte finish the 2011 season as the feature back?

I'm not in disagreement with you that he has a relatively high floor in 2010. Where the issue is is that for dynasty purposes, which is what this thread is about, is Forte a guy you want to build a team around? Do you think he gets through the next 2 years as the full-time starter as he currently is and keeps the job beyond that? Once you've answered that question, then we can proceed as to where his value might really lie.

If you don't care if he is at that point as you don't plan for that far ahead, then you have no argument from me. He's a safe bet for at least 2010 and possibly/likely for 2011. Safe floor, decent guy to own.

If you don't think he's going to be beyond 2011 but still want to stick with him for now as he'll still retain some value, then I'll go along with that as well.

If you think he's so talented that he'll likely keep the job beyond 2011 and that's why he's a buy low, then I'm in complete disagreement. I highly doubt if he keeps producing pedestrian numbers like he has (good total numbers only because of massive amount of touches) that he'll remain the starter after the next 2 years.

Speaking for myself and not Football Jones, if I am trying to acquire him in Dynasty leagues, I am assuming he will finish the 2011 season as the feature back, but I am not really thinking that far ahead, as the 2010 season will probably answer the question as to his long term value definitively, either way.In answer to your second question, in a start up Dynasty league, I would not try to build my team around him, but he would be a player that would be on my target list. If the 2010 season then confirms the naysayers here, I would work around that, as usually one player doesn't ever make or break my team.

Heck, I'd be trying to acquire him too. For something worth about the market value for RB20.As said earlier, if he is the feature, he'll be great in Fantasy because of opportunity.

Chester Taylor was great because of opportunity behind one of the best lines in football...Minnesota brought in Adrian Peterson because per touch, Taylor wasn't meeting the cut.

Tim Hightower put up pretty decent stats last season, but his NFL per touch numbers were incredibly bad. One of the onyl people worse than Forte. And they drafted Beanie Wells.

Joseph Addai was great in Fantasy for a couple seasons...but his NFL per touch numbers were subpar, so they brought in Donald Brown.

In 2005, Fred Taylor's ypc dipped half a yard (to 4.1) from his previous 7 year career consistent average of 4.6 ypc. And Jacksonville brought in MJD.

In 2007 LenDale White was a major Fantasy force with over 300 carries and 20 receptions...but his per touch NFL numbers were nearly identical to Forte's rookie season(it's actually kinda freaky) and the next year they brought in Chris Johnson. LenDale had a pretty good season in 2008 (like Forte in 2009) and then in 2009...the better back on his team got the ball and the transition was complete.

In 2007 Willis McGahee had an extremely good fantasy season, with over 1200 yards and 7 TDs...but his per touch numbers were below average and his team brought in Ray Rice the next season to be his replacement.

Man, I could keep doing this for so long. But I won't. I think you all get the point. Crappy per touch NFL stats is a direct influence on being replaced quickly at the RB position.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Id rather have Derrick Ward riding my bench in my PPR league than Forte. Honestly think Ward has a better chance at turing things around in Tampa.I think Forte will be an back-up RB, and a fantasy after thought 2 years from now.I'll admit, if I currently owned Forte, I'd hold him and hope the he proves me wrong. But I wouldn't hold my breath.

Derrick Ward produced behind a great Giants OL.....he is much older than Forte too.Note: I own Forte in one league.

 

[JohnnyU]

I will buy Forte in any league right now.

Injuries + bad OL account for last season.

His value is a bargain right now.

This is what I call denial, but you're right, if you can get him for a 3rd rd rookie pick it's a great deal.

No, this is called overreacting. Remember when TB signed Derrick Ward.In two years, 2,167 yards, 120 receptions 948 yards 16 total TDs....playing on a sprained MCL for 13 of those games.

Compare that to:

Felix Jones 951 yards, 21 receptions 129 yards 6 totall tds....but thats not overreacting...lol.

do you really think Forte has the talent to hold off Taylor? If so, now that is denial.

 

[JohnnyU]

Id rather have Derrick Ward riding my bench in my PPR league than Forte. Honestly think Ward has a better chance at turing things around in Tampa.

I think Forte will be an back-up RB, and a fantasy after thought 2 years from now.

I'll admit, if I currently owned Forte, I'd hold him and hope the he proves me wrong. But I wouldn't hold my breath.

Derrick Ward produced behind a great Giants OL.....he is much older than Forte too.Note: I own Forte in one league.

...and my guess is that you would give your left nut to trade him for a 2nd rd rookie pick about right now.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I will buy Forte in any league right now.

Injuries + bad OL account for last season.

His value is a bargain right now.

This is what I call denial, but you're right, if you can get him for a 3rd rd rookie pick it's a great deal.

No, this is called overreacting. Remember when TB signed Derrick Ward.In two years, 2,167 yards, 120 receptions 948 yards 16 total TDs....playing on a sprained MCL for 13 of those games.

Compare that to:

Felix Jones 951 yards, 21 receptions 129 yards 6 totall tds....but thats not overreacting...lol.

do you really think Forte has the talent to hold off Taylor? If so, now that is denial.

Yes....Forte is more talented and they will be in a committee probably.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Id rather have Derrick Ward riding my bench in my PPR league than Forte. Honestly think Ward has a better chance at turing things around in Tampa.

I think Forte will be an back-up RB, and a fantasy after thought 2 years from now.

I'll admit, if I currently owned Forte, I'd hold him and hope the he proves me wrong. But I wouldn't hold my breath.

Derrick Ward produced behind a great Giants OL.....he is much older than Forte too.Note: I own Forte in one league.

...and my guess is that you would give your left nut to trade him for a 2nd rd rookie pick about right now.

At this point your redundant.....and no I wouldn't.Since your sooo drastic now.....I'm sure you think Boldin will play 16 games next year

 

[JohnnyU]

I will buy Forte in any league right now.

Injuries + bad OL account for last season.

His value is a bargain right now.

This is what I call denial, but you're right, if you can get him for a 3rd rd rookie pick it's a great deal.

No, this is called overreacting. Remember when TB signed Derrick Ward.In two years, 2,167 yards, 120 receptions 948 yards 16 total TDs....playing on a sprained MCL for 13 of those games.

Compare that to:

Felix Jones 951 yards, 21 receptions 129 yards 6 totall tds....but thats not overreacting...lol.

do you really think Forte has the talent to hold off Taylor? If so, now that is denial.

Yes....Forte is more talented and they will be in a committee probably.

no doubt they will be in a RBBC. I expect a 60-40 or 65-35 in favor of Taylor.