Dynasty Rankings (3 Viewers)

[SSOG]

F&L and SSOG -I know they're two completely different players, but how do guys project Megatron and DeSean to do long term? Considering the differences in offensive philosophy, QB- and O-line play. TIA.

I do a lot of my projecting with an "archetypes" type system. I try to find past players who shared similarities with current players, and project the current players based on the trends of the past players.With that in mind, I expect Calvin Johnson's career going forward to follow the Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens career arc. I also think that Fitz and Andre will follow similar career arcs (although, of the three, only Fitz has really demonstrated that he's going to be the lock for double-digit TDs that Harrison/Moss/Owens were).For DeSean Jackson, I could see the next few years going anywhere from Lee Evans (super-talented guy who's still not quite good enough to transcend his circumstances) to Steve Smith (a lock for 100 yards a game as long as he has an NFL-caliber QB under center, although slightly shy in the TD department). It's really too early to say for sure. I definitely think he's a talent, and, all things considered, I think he should have no problem averaging 70-75 yards and .5 TDs per game for the rest of his career. His only "problem" is that, like many of the punt returners-turned-receivers, his game is more about making plays in space and less about manhandling defenders, which means he's always going to be more dependent on his supporting cast than other guys who are producing similar numbers with a different skillset (VJax, BMarsh, Roddy, etc). It also means he's never going to be a reliable double-digit TD threat like a Vincent Jackson or a Brandon Marshall might be.

 

[SSOG]

By the way, I was loving what I saw from Hester this week. 7 yards on 2nd and 5, 18 yards on 2nd and 3, 17 yards on 3rd and 7, 18 yards on 1st and 10, 11 yards on 2nd and 10, 17 yards on 2nd and 10, 8 yards on 2nd and 10, and 5 yard TD on 3rd and 2. 9 targets, 8 receptions, 7 first downs (and the only reception that wasn't a first was a successful 8 yarder to set up 3rd and 2). Yes, he fumbled, and yes that is bad... but, in my mind, that carries far less predictive value going forward than his ability to consistently move the chains. If he keeps this up, Cutler will be looking his way more and more. This week's game really underscored that Hester isn't just reliant on the deep ball anymore. The fact that it came against an awesome Cincinnati pass defense was just icing. That was Leon Hall in coverage on a lot of those passes.

what is ADP's value in a PPR league?is asking for 1 RB and 2 WRs to much

Depends on the RBs and the WRs. If you're asking for MJD, Fitzgerald, and Calvin, that's too much. If you're asking for Cedric Benson, Mike Sims-Walker, and Smith North, that's too little.

 

[thatguy]

By the way, I was loving what I saw from Hester this week. 7 yards on 2nd and 5, 18 yards on 2nd and 3, 17 yards on 3rd and 7, 18 yards on 1st and 10, 11 yards on 2nd and 10, 17 yards on 2nd and 10, 8 yards on 2nd and 10, and 5 yard TD on 3rd and 2. 9 targets, 8 receptions, 7 first downs (and the only reception that wasn't a first was a successful 8 yarder to set up 3rd and 2). Yes, he fumbled, and yes that is bad... but, in my mind, that carries far less predictive value going forward than his ability to consistently move the chains. If he keeps this up, Cutler will be looking his way more and more. This week's game really underscored that Hester isn't just reliant on the deep ball anymore. The fact that it came against an awesome Cincinnati pass defense was just icing. That was Leon Hall in coverage on a lot of those passes.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

By the way, I was loving what I saw from Hester this week. 7 yards on 2nd and 5, 18 yards on 2nd and 3, 17 yards on 3rd and 7, 18 yards on 1st and 10, 11 yards on 2nd and 10, 17 yards on 2nd and 10, 8 yards on 2nd and 10, and 5 yard TD on 3rd and 2. 9 targets, 8 receptions, 7 first downs (and the only reception that wasn't a first was a successful 8 yarder to set up 3rd and 2). Yes, he fumbled, and yes that is bad... but, in my mind, that carries far less predictive value going forward than his ability to consistently move the chains. If he keeps this up, Cutler will be looking his way more and more. This week's game really underscored that Hester isn't just reliant on the deep ball anymore. The fact that it came against an awesome Cincinnati pass defense was just icing. That was Leon Hall in coverage on a lot of those passes.

As much as it pains me to say this as a Packer fan, Hester is turning into a WR. I'd like to limit his upside, but how can you given his talent in space? He is starting to show the talents at WR that F&L hopes Harvin will become IMO.

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

F&L and SSOG -I know they're two completely different players, but how do guys project Megatron and DeSean to do long term? Considering the differences in offensive philosophy, QB- and O-line play. TIA.

I do a lot of my projecting with an "archetypes" type system. I try to find past players who shared similarities with current players, and project the current players based on the trends of the past players.With that in mind, I expect Calvin Johnson's career going forward to follow the Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens career arc. I also think that Fitz and Andre will follow similar career arcs (although, of the three, only Fitz has really demonstrated that he's going to be the lock for double-digit TDs that Harrison/Moss/Owens were).For DeSean Jackson, I could see the next few years going anywhere from Lee Evans (super-talented guy who's still not quite good enough to transcend his circumstances) to Steve Smith (a lock for 100 yards a game as long as he has an NFL-caliber QB under center, although slightly shy in the TD department). It's really too early to say for sure. I definitely think he's a talent, and, all things considered, I think he should have no problem averaging 70-75 yards and .5 TDs per game for the rest of his career. His only "problem" is that, like many of the punt returners-turned-receivers, his game is more about making plays in space and less about manhandling defenders, which means he's always going to be more dependent on his supporting cast than other guys who are producing similar numbers with a different skillset (VJax, BMarsh, Roddy, etc). It also means he's never going to be a reliable double-digit TD threat like a Vincent Jackson or a Brandon Marshall might be.

Thanks.

 

[n20]

What does everyone think of Santonio Holmes versus Brandon Marshall. Marshall is clearly the better talent but situation and knucklehead factor seem to be the reasons F&L has him ranked below Holmes.

I have an offer from another dynasty owner: Holmes and Gates for Marshall and Winslow Jr. There are salaries involved but let's keep it simple and say that Gates is has the highest salary of the group but I'd be able to hold him for one more year.

What's the consensus on Holmes? Is he worth more than Marshall in the long run?

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

What does everyone think of Santonio Holmes versus Brandon Marshall. Marshall is clearly the better talent but situation and knucklehead factor seem to be the reasons F&L has him ranked below Holmes. I have an offer from another dynasty owner: Holmes and Gates for Marshall and Winslow Jr. There are salaries involved but let's keep it simple and say that Gates is has the highest salary of the group but I'd be able to hold him for one more year. What's the consensus on Holmes? Is he worth more than Marshall in the long run?

I'd say no. Holmes has a knucklehead factor of his own, and isn't nearly as talented as Marshall. Gates is by far a greater dynasty play than Winslow however. Winslow is on a far inferior team and has serious long term knee issues.

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

What does everyone think of Santonio Holmes versus Brandon Marshall. Marshall is clearly the better talent but situation and knucklehead factor seem to be the reasons F&L has him ranked below Holmes. I have an offer from another dynasty owner: Holmes and Gates for Marshall and Winslow Jr. There are salaries involved but let's keep it simple and say that Gates is has the highest salary of the group but I'd be able to hold him for one more year. What's the consensus on Holmes? Is he worth more than Marshall in the long run?

I'd stick with Marshall for sure.

 

[MountainMan0726]

An injury question probably doesn't go here, so I'll include the Dynasty aspect too...

What's the story on Jared Cook? I can't get any solid information anywhere...his lingering "ankle injury" seems to be "not responding as well as the coaches would like." Can anyone translate?

Also, does this affect the Dynasty value of Cook, and what is the long-term outlook for this guy? He is such a physical freak, I've been stashing him most of the season but have finally sent him back to the FA pile. It would kill me if someone scooped him up (I feel he's safe until he produces). Does he project to a taller Vernon Davis with less character issues, or do they toy with the idea of moving him to WR down the road as some kind of Boldin/Colston hybrid?

 

[kremenull]

well I have decided to move LT(with sporles) asking for a RB in return. surprisingly I have some interest.

right now i have email offers, no offer thru the system, trading opens back up tonight at 11.

i am targeting owners that are in a win now stag, that might need a RB to put their team over the top, owners that think LT has some gas left in the tank

young RBs that have a lot of potential, like McCoy, Stewart, Green, mendenhall, moreno.

It is tough to move LT b/c my team is in a win now stage(starting line up with out LT- cutler, barber, sjax, gore, Wayne, r. moss and bowe) but I feel he is done and I need to get something for him.

got this email offer

LT and sporles for Stewart and another player( maybe Portis or a WR)

another owner emailed me and said he will send an offer once trading opens back up. his RB are ADP(i know he is not going to offer him), mendenhall, moreno, Thomas, McCoy. this owner has 3 young RBs that I am interested in- mendenhall, Moreno and McCoy. I am not sure who is going to offer but if it is Thomas I will reject. if he offers one of the other 3 who would you want. I like Moreno. but I have a feeling he will offer Thomas or McCoy

if you could move LT for a young rookie RB or 2nd year RB who would you target?

Why are you wasting time asking what to do here?........HIT THE TRADE ACCEPT/OFFER BUTTON NOW!!!

 

[scientist]

So what are the thread's thoughts on Leon Washington? It sounds like the bone was sticking out of his leg. Are there any other instances where this kind of injury happened to a pro RB, of comparable or greater ability/potential (I'm thinking fringe players wouldn't count since they would be much less motivated to make a comeback)? The first player (non-RB) that comes to mind is Joe Theismann, but he had both a shattered fibula and tibia. The tibia is the load-bearing bone, but is a snapped fibula any "better" for an athlete? In "A Clinical Guide to Sports Injuries" the author states that an athlete can count on at least a 6 month absence from contact sports following a severe fracture. This would be assuming that no other complications occurred as a result of the injury. Theismann also suffered from avascular necrosis in his ankle following his injury (caused by a temporary or extended loss of blood to a body part), which is what ended Bo Jackson's football career (hip).

The only leg injuries I can find on notable RBs are the well-known ACL, MCL, knee, and ankle injuries. These generally follow a "two year" rule where it takes a player two years to return to his former level, mainly due to hesitation and lack of confidence in the year after. This website has more detailed information as well as a chart that shows RBs with leg injuries and their season before and after the injury: http://www.footballdocs.com/RB_injury_rule.html.

Are people going to wait and see what develops? Try to lock him up for cheap?

 

[mulliganman]

I'm curious to hear thoughts about forte's ranking going forward and benson. I think benson has to be moved up at this point. He's having a similar to Deangelo Williams breakout season last year and I believe is even a bit younger than DWill.

 

[fsufan]

well I have decided to move LT(with sporles) asking for a RB in return. surprisingly I have some interest.

right now i have email offers, no offer thru the system, trading opens back up tonight at 11.

i am targeting owners that are in a win now stag, that might need a RB to put their team over the top, owners that think LT has some gas left in the tank

young RBs that have a lot of potential, like McCoy, Stewart, Green, mendenhall, moreno.

It is tough to move LT b/c my team is in a win now stage(starting line up with out LT- cutler, barber, sjax, gore, Wayne, r. moss and bowe) but I feel he is done and I need to get something for him.

got this email offer

LT and sporles for Stewart and another player( maybe Portis or a WR)

another owner emailed me and said he will send an offer once trading opens back up. his RB are ADP(i know he is not going to offer him), mendenhall, moreno, Thomas, McCoy. this owner has 3 young RBs that I am interested in- mendenhall, Moreno and McCoy. I am not sure who is going to offer but if it is Thomas I will reject. if he offers one of the other 3 who would you want. I like Moreno. but I have a feeling he will offer Thomas or McCoy

if you could move LT for a young rookie RB or 2nd year RB who would you target?

Why are you wasting time asking what to do here?........HIT THE TRADE ACCEPT/OFFER BUTTON NOW!!!

a LT owner that just can not let go

 

[kremenull]

F&L and SSOG -I know they're two completely different players, but how do guys project Megatron and DeSean to do long term? Considering the differences in offensive philosophy, QB- and O-line play. TIA.

I do a lot of my projecting with an "archetypes" type system. I try to find past players who shared similarities with current players, and project the current players based on the trends of the past players.With that in mind, I expect Calvin Johnson's career going forward to follow the Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens career arc. I also think that Fitz and Andre will follow similar career arcs (although, of the three, only Fitz has really demonstrated that he's going to be the lock for double-digit TDs that Harrison/Moss/Owens were).For DeSean Jackson, I could see the next few years going anywhere from Lee Evans (super-talented guy who's still not quite good enough to transcend his circumstances) to Steve Smith (a lock for 100 yards a game as long as he has an NFL-caliber QB under center, although slightly shy in the TD department). It's really too early to say for sure. I definitely think he's a talent, and, all things considered, I think he should have no problem averaging 70-75 yards and .5 TDs per game for the rest of his career. His only "problem" is that, like many of the punt returners-turned-receivers, his game is more about making plays in space and less about manhandling defenders, which means he's always going to be more dependent on his supporting cast than other guys who are producing similar numbers with a different skillset (VJax, BMarsh, Roddy, etc). It also means he's never going to be a reliable double-digit TD threat like a Vincent Jackson or a Brandon Marshall might be.

Good stuff from SSOG.What I see is that DeSean is the quintessential "freak" WR. Most may not agree nor see why I'm using this label for him, but the reason is that DeSean is unguardable over 80 yards of the field, meaning from their own goal line to the opponents' 20. Inside the red zone he can be jammed and contained, but due to his ultra-dynamic ability in open space, this kid is a real star, and not anywhere near the likes of Santana Moss, Lee Evans, and the like. Sure he will not overpower DBs like the supersized, physical WRs, but the flip side is that the supersized WRs will not be as frequently dynamic in open space as DeSean. He is in and out of his routes faster than anyone in the game today. It is not a coincidence that he is regularly getting open and beating guys deep, often with safety help over the top. Combining his return and rush capabiity, especially in the Andy Reid offense, I believe DeSean will definitely be a reliable 9+ TD guy year-in and year-out as this kid has the "want to" and heart to be the best. Size is irrelevent for this guy, which is a rare instance in a sport like football. Calvin is also a "freak" WR, too. Can do it all, not as lightning quick as DeSean obviously but the top speed and athleticism are unparalleled. Once he and Stafford build a strong rapport, Megatron will be a routine double-digit TD machine ala Randy Moss.

 

[kremenull]

So what are the thread's thoughts on Leon Washington? It sounds like the bone was sticking out of his leg. Are there any other instances where this kind of injury happened to a pro RB, of comparable or greater ability/potential (I'm thinking fringe players wouldn't count since they would be much less motivated to make a comeback)? The first player (non-RB) that comes to mind is Joe Theismann, but he had both a shattered fibula and tibia. The tibia is the load-bearing bone, but is a snapped fibula any "better" for an athlete? In "A Clinical Guide to Sports Injuries" the author states that an athlete can count on at least a 6 month absence from contact sports following a severe fracture. This would be assuming that no other complications occurred as a result of the injury. Theismann also suffered from avascular necrosis in his ankle following his injury (caused by a temporary or extended loss of blood to a body part), which is what ended Bo Jackson's football career (hip).

The only leg injuries I can find on notable RBs are the well-known ACL, MCL, knee, and ankle injuries. These generally follow a "two year" rule where it takes a player two years to return to his former level, mainly due to hesitation and lack of confidence in the year after. This website has more detailed information as well as a chart that shows RBs with leg injuries and their season before and after the injury: http://www.footballdocs.com/RB_injury_rule.html.

Are people going to wait and see what develops? Try to lock him up for cheap?

I don't think he was of comparable ability, but Napoleon McCallum, he of the Naval Academy and later the LA Raiders, had a pretty similar, gruesome injury that ended his playing career. I think? Bryant Young, not a RB but a helluva DT, had a pretty severe leg fracture as well. I feel sad for LW, and hope he can make it back as he is a helluva player.

 

[kremenull]

And it will not take 7 years for everyone to see that Pryor will outdo Te-Slow in the professional ranks as a QB......maybe 1-2 years tops just to verify that Pryor is not a bust QB as Tebow will need a position change, likely to the TE ala James Casey. I'd hate to be the GM and Coach who will be banking on Tebow being their NFL franchise QB.

But aside from these trivial and moot points, raise your hand if you believed in Hester before now? Where have y'all been? This was very evident off of last year's film and production with pitiful Orton as the QB. Enter JC in '09 as the trigger man and it was a wrap that Hester would take off this year.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

well I have decided to move LT(with sporles) asking for a RB in return. surprisingly I have some interest.

right now i have email offers, no offer thru the system, trading opens back up tonight at 11.

i am targeting owners that are in a win now stag, that might need a RB to put their team over the top, owners that think LT has some gas left in the tank

young RBs that have a lot of potential, like McCoy, Stewart, Green, mendenhall, moreno.

It is tough to move LT b/c my team is in a win now stage(starting line up with out LT- cutler, barber, sjax, gore, Wayne, r. moss and bowe) but I feel he is done and I need to get something for him.

got this email offer

LT and sporles for Stewart and another player( maybe Portis or a WR)

another owner emailed me and said he will send an offer once trading opens back up. his RB are ADP(i know he is not going to offer him), mendenhall, moreno, Thomas, McCoy. this owner has 3 young RBs that I am interested in- mendenhall, Moreno and McCoy. I am not sure who is going to offer but if it is Thomas I will reject. if he offers one of the other 3 who would you want. I like Moreno. but I have a feeling he will offer Thomas or McCoy

if you could move LT for a young rookie RB or 2nd year RB who would you target?

Why are you wasting time asking what to do here?........HIT THE TRADE ACCEPT/OFFER BUTTON NOW!!!

What he said.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

So what are the thread's thoughts on Leon Washington? It sounds like the bone was sticking out of his leg. Are there any other instances where this kind of injury happened to a pro RB, of comparable or greater ability/potential (I'm thinking fringe players wouldn't count since they would be much less motivated to make a comeback)? The first player (non-RB) that comes to mind is Joe Theismann, but he had both a shattered fibula and tibia. The tibia is the load-bearing bone, but is a snapped fibula any "better" for an athlete? In "A Clinical Guide to Sports Injuries" the author states that an athlete can count on at least a 6 month absence from contact sports following a severe fracture. This would be assuming that no other complications occurred as a result of the injury. Theismann also suffered from avascular necrosis in his ankle following his injury (caused by a temporary or extended loss of blood to a body part), which is what ended Bo Jackson's football career (hip).

The only leg injuries I can find on notable RBs are the well-known ACL, MCL, knee, and ankle injuries. These generally follow a "two year" rule where it takes a player two years to return to his former level, mainly due to hesitation and lack of confidence in the year after. This website has more detailed information as well as a chart that shows RBs with leg injuries and their season before and after the injury: http://www.footballdocs.com/RB_injury_rule.html.

Are people going to wait and see what develops? Try to lock him up for cheap?

Michael Bush suffered a similar injury at Louisville and took nearly two full years until he was able to play again (although he puts a lot more weight on a weight bearing bone than Washington). Bush has shown some flashes and has likely made a full recovery - but doesn't appear quite as fast as he did in college. I'd be a little leary of running out and acquiring Washington in a dynasty as there has to be some doubt.To further illustrate the "doubt". The local NY papers today reported that Thomas Jones will very likely now be brought back next year at his $5.6 MM salary when it was all but assured he would be let go after this season prior to Washington's injury.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I'm curious to hear thoughts about forte's ranking going forward and benson. I think benson has to be moved up at this point. He's having a similar to Deangelo Williams breakout season last year and I believe is even a bit younger than DWill.

Benson also has a history of being injury-prone as well as a pretty severe knucklehead. You can ignore that history if you want, but I'm absolutely taking it into account. He's a quintessential sell-high right now.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

And it will not take 7 years for everyone to see that Pryor will outdo Te-Slow in the professional ranks as a QB......maybe 1-2 years tops just to verify that Pryor is not a bust QB as Tebow will need a position change, likely to the TE ala James Casey. I'd hate to be the GM and Coach who will be banking on Tebow being their NFL franchise QB.

But aside from these trivial and moot points, raise your hand if you believed in Hester before now? Where have y'all been? This was very evident off of last year's film and production with pitiful Orton as the QB. Enter JC in '09 as the trigger man and it was a wrap that Hester would take off this year.

I traded Santonio Holmes for him this offseason. While that's not completely going out on a limb for the belief in Hester's ability, I was slammed a little on the league message board and all that responded said I got the shirt end. Hester has plenty of ability and seems to be learning the position well. He now runs pretty good routes for a player that was thought to be a "deep threat" at best.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

What does everyone think of Santonio Holmes versus Brandon Marshall. Marshall is clearly the better talent but situation and knucklehead factor seem to be the reasons F&L has him ranked below Holmes. I have an offer from another dynasty owner: Holmes and Gates for Marshall and Winslow Jr. There are salaries involved but let's keep it simple and say that Gates is has the highest salary of the group but I'd be able to hold him for one more year. What's the consensus on Holmes? Is he worth more than Marshall in the long run?

I'd take Holmes and Gates. A lot of people in here have selective memory loss on Marshall. He's a knucklehead of the highest order, and IMO will never be a true nucleus player. Holmes and Gates both have outstanding QB situations long-term.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

An injury question probably doesn't go here, so I'll include the Dynasty aspect too...

What's the story on Jared Cook? I can't get any solid information anywhere...his lingering "ankle injury" seems to be "not responding as well as the coaches would like." Can anyone translate?

Also, does this affect the Dynasty value of Cook, and what is the long-term outlook for this guy? He is such a physical freak, I've been stashing him most of the season but have finally sent him back to the FA pile. It would kill me if someone scooped him up (I feel he's safe until he produces). Does he project to a taller Vernon Davis with less character issues, or do they toy with the idea of moving him to WR down the road as some kind of Boldin/Colston hybrid?

Titans are coming off a bye, so I'm going with the assumption that Cook should be back up to full speed. I don't think the ankle injury has affected his Dynasty value or long-term outlook much at all. I'd expect to see more of both him and Britt in the second-half of a lost season. I think he stays at tight end.

 

[ex-ghost]

So what are the thread's thoughts on Leon Washington? It sounds like the bone was sticking out of his leg. Are there any other instances where this kind of injury happened to a pro RB, of comparable or greater ability/potential (I'm thinking fringe players wouldn't count since they would be much less motivated to make a comeback)? The first player (non-RB) that comes to mind is Joe Theismann, but he had both a shattered fibula and tibia. The tibia is the load-bearing bone, but is a snapped fibula any "better" for an athlete? In "A Clinical Guide to Sports Injuries" the author states that an athlete can count on at least a 6 month absence from contact sports following a severe fracture. This would be assuming that no other complications occurred as a result of the injury. Theismann also suffered from avascular necrosis in his ankle following his injury (caused by a temporary or extended loss of blood to a body part), which is what ended Bo Jackson's football career (hip).

The only leg injuries I can find on notable RBs are the well-known ACL, MCL, knee, and ankle injuries. These generally follow a "two year" rule where it takes a player two years to return to his former level, mainly due to hesitation and lack of confidence in the year after. This website has more detailed information as well as a chart that shows RBs with leg injuries and their season before and after the injury: http://www.footballdocs.com/RB_injury_rule.html.

Are people going to wait and see what develops? Try to lock him up for cheap?

Michael Bush suffered a similar injury at Louisville and took nearly two full years until he was able to play again (although he puts a lot more weight on a weight bearing bone than Washington). Bush has shown some flashes and has likely made a full recovery - but doesn't appear quite as fast as he did in college. I'd be a little leary of running out and acquiring Washington in a dynasty as there has to be some doubt.To further illustrate the "doubt". The local NY papers today reported that Thomas Jones will very likely now be brought back next year at his $5.6 MM salary when it was all but assured he would be let go after this season prior to Washington's injury.

Speaking of Bush, is he ever going to turn into a mid-tier running back? Is there a chance he gets out of Oakland?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

F&L and SSOG -I know they're two completely different players, but how do guys project Megatron and DeSean to do long term? Considering the differences in offensive philosophy, QB- and O-line play. TIA.

I do a lot of my projecting with an "archetypes" type system. I try to find past players who shared similarities with current players, and project the current players based on the trends of the past players.With that in mind, I expect Calvin Johnson's career going forward to follow the Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens career arc. I also think that Fitz and Andre will follow similar career arcs (although, of the three, only Fitz has really demonstrated that he's going to be the lock for double-digit TDs that Harrison/Moss/Owens were).For DeSean Jackson, I could see the next few years going anywhere from Lee Evans (super-talented guy who's still not quite good enough to transcend his circumstances) to Steve Smith (a lock for 100 yards a game as long as he has an NFL-caliber QB under center, although slightly shy in the TD department). It's really too early to say for sure. I definitely think he's a talent, and, all things considered, I think he should have no problem averaging 70-75 yards and .5 TDs per game for the rest of his career. His only "problem" is that, like many of the punt returners-turned-receivers, his game is more about making plays in space and less about manhandling defenders, which means he's always going to be more dependent on his supporting cast than other guys who are producing similar numbers with a different skillset (VJax, BMarsh, Roddy, etc). It also means he's never going to be a reliable double-digit TD threat like a Vincent Jackson or a Brandon Marshall might be.

I'm impressed by Jackson's ability to find the end zone more often this year. He's a freakish talent.Still, let's not kid ourselves. He ain't a patch on Calvin's ####. Calvin Johnson is currently the most talented WR in the NFL, and he's clearly in the Top-3 discussion with Larry Fitz and Andre Johnson. His ceiling is off the charts.

 

[thriftyrocker]

I'm curious to hear thoughts about forte's ranking going forward and benson. I think benson has to be moved up at this point. He's having a similar to Deangelo Williams breakout season last year and I believe is even a bit younger than DWill.

Benson also has a history of being injury-prone as well as a pretty severe knucklehead. You can ignore that history if you want, but I'm absolutely taking it into account.

He's have a similar season to DeAngelo Williams this year, not last year. He has 0 multi-TD games and is not getting lots of receptions. DeAngelo had 20 TDs last year. That is a lot. Cincinnati is running a lot and Benson is benefiting. He is Ryan Grant with more opportunities, plus the problems F&L mentions. He is rising in value, and if you own him, you gotta ride him, but there's only a couple guys in tiers ahead of him where I'd take Benson. Thomas? Forte? KSmith? Jacobs? Those are all probably tough arguments for a Benson defender.

 

[tonka]

F&L - What are your thoughts on Ray Rice?He's a guy who has obviously garnered a lot of discussion around here. Is it safe to say that he will get a significant bump up in the next RB rankings to go up on your blog? The last rankings were posted before Rice "broke out" against the Vikings. Is he now competing with guys like Steven Jackson at the top of tier 2 or is it too early to say?

Re-posting myself because this was never answered and I'd still very much like to hear your take on the situation.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

F&L - What are your thoughts on Ray Rice?He's a guy who has obviously garnered a lot of discussion around here. Is it safe to say that he will get a significant bump up in the next RB rankings to go up on your blog? The last rankings were posted before Rice "broke out" against the Vikings. Is he now competing with guys like Steven Jackson at the top of tier 2 or is it too early to say?

Re-posting myself because this was never answered and I'd still very much like to hear your take on the situation.

We talked about him just last week or the week before, so it's probably a few pages pack.I still Ray Rice, so nothing has changed since then. I think S-Jax has proven once again that he's one of the top 2 or 3 elite talents in the league at the position, and it's impressive as hell that he's putting up the yardage he is in the Rams lifeless offense. As several of us pointed out in the offseason, S-Jax remains an elite Dynasty value because his floor is so high. I'll probably move him back into Tier One.Re: Rice's ranking. He's moving into Tier 2, ahead of Michael Turner and Matt Forte. He's in that mix with DeAngelo Williams, Ronnie Brown, Knowshon Moreno, and Frank Gore. I could see him probably around No. 8 or so.

 

[kremenull]

F&L and SSOG -

I know they're two completely different players, but how do guys project Megatron and DeSean to do long term? Considering the differences in offensive philosophy, QB- and O-line play. TIA.

I do a lot of my projecting with an "archetypes" type system. I try to find past players who shared similarities with current players, and project the current players based on the trends of the past players.With that in mind, I expect Calvin Johnson's career going forward to follow the Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens career arc. I also think that Fitz and Andre will follow similar career arcs (although, of the three, only Fitz has really demonstrated that he's going to be the lock for double-digit TDs that Harrison/Moss/Owens were).

For DeSean Jackson, I could see the next few years going anywhere from Lee Evans (super-talented guy who's still not quite good enough to transcend his circumstances) to Steve Smith (a lock for 100 yards a game as long as he has an NFL-caliber QB under center, although slightly shy in the TD department). It's really too early to say for sure. I definitely think he's a talent, and, all things considered, I think he should have no problem averaging 70-75 yards and .5 TDs per game for the rest of his career. His only "problem" is that, like many of the punt returners-turned-receivers, his game is more about making plays in space and less about manhandling defenders, which means he's always going to be more dependent on his supporting cast than other guys who are producing similar numbers with a different skillset (VJax, BMarsh, Roddy, etc). It also means he's never going to be a reliable double-digit TD threat like a Vincent Jackson or a Brandon Marshall might be.

I'm impressed by Jackson's ability to find the end zone more often this year. He's a freakish talent.

Still, let's not kid ourselves. He ain't a patch on Calvin's ####. Calvin Johnson is currently the most talented WR in the NFL, and he's clearly in the Top-3 discussion with Larry Fitz and Andre Johnson. His ceiling is off the charts.

I must have missed this (bold) before. Has Marshall ever scored double-digit TDs? V-Jax probably will this season, and Andre1500 has yet to hit the magic mark either. Going forward I believe that DeSean could have just as many double-digit TD seasons as almost any WR this side of R.Moss (every year he decides to play) and maybe Fitz, and maybe Calvin. I don't see much difference in what DeSean is doing this season as opposed to what Calvin did last season, really. Perception of value in comparing players is not always the reality of their production. For this year, and there may be other years vs. other WRs as well, but for this year I'd clearly rather have DeSean over Calvin. Over the next 5-7 year span, which WR ends up with the better numbers? Right now, I honestly don't know but I'd bet on it being closer than many think in regards to quite a few of the Top 10-12 WRs.

 

[mulliganman]

I'm curious to hear thoughts about forte's ranking going forward and benson. I think benson has to be moved up at this point. He's having a similar to Deangelo Williams breakout season last year and I believe is even a bit younger than DWill.

Benson also has a history of being injury-prone as well as a pretty severe knucklehead. You can ignore that history if you want, but I'm absolutely taking it into account.

He's have a similar season to DeAngelo Williams this year, not last year. He has 0 multi-TD games and is not getting lots of receptions. DeAngelo had 20 TDs last year. That is a lot. Cincinnati is running a lot and Benson is benefiting. He is Ryan Grant with more opportunities, plus the problems F&L mentions. He is rising in value, and if you own him, you gotta ride him, but there's only a couple guys in tiers ahead of him where I'd take Benson. Thomas? Forte? KSmith? Jacobs? Those are all probably tough arguments for a Benson defender.

Yes, Benson has been a knucklehead in the past. But, he seems to have turned it around. The injury argument is a puzzling one since Gore is another guy that has had injury issues yet has a high ranking. I don't buy the ryan grant argument either. He has more talent than grant. A FBG staffer recently posted that at this point he has to be considered top 20 overall in dynasty rankings.

 

[dmac37]

What are the odds that both D. Will & Stewart are with the Panthers in 2010? I don't know what the contract situation is but there has been talk that one or the other could be gone???

I would think a major bump in value if they are separated, as they both have top RB1 talent.

 

[mulliganman]

What are the odds that both D. Will & Stewart are with the Panthers in 2010? I don't know what the contract situation is but there has been talk that one or the other could be gone???I would think a major bump in value if they are separated, as they both have top RB1 talent.

The link from this thread says Stewart is signed through 2012 while DWill is signed through 2010.

 

[dmac37]

What are the odds that both D. Will & Stewart are with the Panthers in 2010? I don't know what the contract situation is but there has been talk that one or the other could be gone???I would think a major bump in value if they are separated, as they both have top RB1 talent.

The link from this thread says Stewart is signed through 2012 while DWill is signed through 2010.

So would it make sense to move Williams this offseason to get something for him before the contract expires. Rather than pay for two top RB's and hand it over to Stewart moving forward?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I'm curious to hear thoughts about forte's ranking going forward and benson. I think benson has to be moved up at this point. He's having a similar to Deangelo Williams breakout season last year and I believe is even a bit younger than DWill.

Benson also has a history of being injury-prone as well as a pretty severe knucklehead. You can ignore that history if you want, but I'm absolutely taking it into account.

He's have a similar season to DeAngelo Williams this year, not last year. He has 0 multi-TD games and is not getting lots of receptions. DeAngelo had 20 TDs last year. That is a lot. Cincinnati is running a lot and Benson is benefiting. He is Ryan Grant with more opportunities, plus the problems F&L mentions. He is rising in value, and if you own him, you gotta ride him, but there's only a couple guys in tiers ahead of him where I'd take Benson. Thomas? Forte? KSmith? Jacobs? Those are all probably tough arguments for a Benson defender.

Yes, Benson has been a knucklehead in the past. But, he seems to have turned it around. The injury argument is a puzzling one since Gore is another guy that has had injury issues yet has a high ranking. I don't buy the ryan grant argument either. He has more talent than grant. A FBG staffer recently posted that at this point he has to be considered top 20 overall in dynasty rankings.

Gore has shown the ability to carry the load over a full season, and his injuries at the NFL level have been nagging ankle sprains. I consider Benson more of an injury risk and nowhere near Gore's talent level, leadership, reliability or character/dedication level. I agree that Benson is more talented than Grant. He'll probably move up a little bit, but I still think he's a prime sell-high.

 

[D'OHtis]

What are the odds that both D. Will & Stewart are with the Panthers in 2010? I don't know what the contract situation is but there has been talk that one or the other could be gone???I would think a major bump in value if they are separated, as they both have top RB1 talent.

The link from this thread says Stewart is signed through 2012 while DWill is signed through 2010.

So would it make sense to move Williams this offseason to get something for him before the contract expires. Rather than pay for two top RB's and hand it over to Stewart moving forward?

I see it playing out: D-Will plays out 2010 in Carolina. Still playing at high level, they slap the franchise tag on him for 2011. The best age to enter the NFL as an NFL back is 20-21. Williams entered at 23 and signed a 5-year pact. If they tag him, he's not a FA until age 29. I think you'll see very very few teams making the same mistakes Seattle did with Alexander [you can throw other names there as well] and handing out a large bonus and contract to an aging RB.If Williams creates a fuss, I could see this playing out much like Thomas Jones-Cedric Benson in Chicago. I don't think they'll deal Williams just for the sake of dealing him with the tag available. [They still control him for 2.5 years, an eternity for a RB]

 

[Fear & Loathing]

What are the odds that both D. Will & Stewart are with the Panthers in 2010? I don't know what the contract situation is but there has been talk that one or the other could be gone???I would think a major bump in value if they are separated, as they both have top RB1 talent.

The link from this thread says Stewart is signed through 2012 while DWill is signed through 2010.

So would it make sense to move Williams this offseason to get something for him before the contract expires. Rather than pay for two top RB's and hand it over to Stewart moving forward?

They can't get what Williams is worth. Contract expiration is over-rated in the NFL because of the franchise tag.

 

[editor47]

this is what worries me about jonathan stewart. based on the above posts, he's stuck behind/sharing with Williams for at least 2 more seasons. he will have been in the league for 4 years at that point. i'm not sure any player is worth waiting 4 years for. i could probably trade for stewart today. but in a league where i have to play 13 of my 15 rostered players every week, its tough for me to pull the trigger.

 

[thriftyrocker]

this is what worries me about jonathan stewart. based on the above posts, he's stuck behind/sharing with Williams for at least 2 more seasons. he will have been in the league for 4 years at that point. i'm not sure any player is worth waiting 4 years for. i could probably trade for stewart today. but in a league where i have to play 13 of my 15 rostered players every week, its tough for me to pull the trigger.

There's currently 2 RBs from the same team in the top 10 nonPPR. And 2 RBs from another team in the top 15 nonPPR. If Carolina realized how to win games with the roster they have and Stewart was able to stay on the field, I don't see why he can't help fantasy teams.

 

[editor47]

this is what worries me about jonathan stewart. based on the above posts, he's stuck behind/sharing with Williams for at least 2 more seasons. he will have been in the league for 4 years at that point. i'm not sure any player is worth waiting 4 years for. i could probably trade for stewart today. but in a league where i have to play 13 of my 15 rostered players every week, its tough for me to pull the trigger.

There's currently 2 RBs from the same team in the top 10 nonPPR. And 2 RBs from another team in the top 15 nonPPR. If Carolina realized how to win games with the roster they have and Stewart was able to stay on the field, I don't see why he can't help fantasy teams.

williams is 8th, stewart 35th in my league.

 

[thriftyrocker]

this is what worries me about jonathan stewart. based on the above posts, he's stuck behind/sharing with Williams for at least 2 more seasons. he will have been in the league for 4 years at that point. i'm not sure any player is worth waiting 4 years for. i could probably trade for stewart today. but in a league where i have to play 13 of my 15 rostered players every week, its tough for me to pull the trigger.

There's currently 2 RBs from the same team in the top 10 nonPPR. And 2 RBs from another team in the top 15 nonPPR. If Carolina realized how to win games with the roster they have and Stewart was able to stay on the field, I don't see why he can't help fantasy teams.

williams is 8th, stewart 35th in my league.

Well my point is that Carolina is doing a terrible job of play calling, and that Stewart has missed games yet again. My point is both Ricky and Ronnie are top 10 right now (believe it... or not), and McGahee's fast start still has him hanging around at #14 or 15. If you are a running team, you can have two successful RBs that are legit fantasy RB1 or RB2. Does Fox realize he has a running team? If there's a new coach next year, will he?

 

[Cookiemonster]

Contract expiration is over-rated in the NFL because of the franchise tag.

What is the stance on the tag going forward with a new CBA? I thought the players were very much against it, and if you have to put in more years to become an UFA, I could see the tag going the way of the dinosaurs.

 

[mulliganman]

I'm curious to hear thoughts about forte's ranking going forward and benson. I think benson has to be moved up at this point. He's having a similar to Deangelo Williams breakout season last year and I believe is even a bit younger than DWill.

Benson also has a history of being injury-prone as well as a pretty severe knucklehead. You can ignore that history if you want, but I'm absolutely taking it into account.

He's have a similar season to DeAngelo Williams this year, not last year. He has 0 multi-TD games and is not getting lots of receptions. DeAngelo had 20 TDs last year. That is a lot. Cincinnati is running a lot and Benson is benefiting. He is Ryan Grant with more opportunities, plus the problems F&L mentions. He is rising in value, and if you own him, you gotta ride him, but there's only a couple guys in tiers ahead of him where I'd take Benson. Thomas? Forte? KSmith? Jacobs? Those are all probably tough arguments for a Benson defender.

Yes, Benson has been a knucklehead in the past. But, he seems to have turned it around. The injury argument is a puzzling one since Gore is another guy that has had injury issues yet has a high ranking. I don't buy the ryan grant argument either. He has more talent than grant. A FBG staffer recently posted that at this point he has to be considered top 20 overall in dynasty rankings.

Gore has shown the ability to carry the load over a full season, and his injuries at the NFL level have been nagging ankle sprains. I consider Benson more of an injury risk and nowhere near Gore's talent level, leadership, reliability or character/dedication level. I agree that Benson is more talented than Grant. He'll probably move up a little bit, but I still think he's a prime sell-high.

I'll give you that Benson hasn't done it over a full season yet, but he is the current NFL rushing leader and I do see similarities to his situation and that of DWill from last season as far as emergence goes.

 

[mulliganman]

this is what worries me about jonathan stewart. based on the above posts, he's stuck behind/sharing with Williams for at least 2 more seasons. he will have been in the league for 4 years at that point. i'm not sure any player is worth waiting 4 years for. i could probably trade for stewart today. but in a league where i have to play 13 of my 15 rostered players every week, its tough for me to pull the trigger.

There's currently 2 RBs from the same team in the top 10 nonPPR. And 2 RBs from another team in the top 15 nonPPR. If Carolina realized how to win games with the roster they have and Stewart was able to stay on the field, I don't see why he can't help fantasy teams.

williams is 8th, stewart 35th in my league.

Well my point is that Carolina is doing a terrible job of play calling, and that Stewart has missed games yet again. My point is both Ricky and Ronnie are top 10 right now (believe it... or not), and McGahee's fast start still has him hanging around at #14 or 15. If you are a running team, you can have two successful RBs that are legit fantasy RB1 or RB2. Does Fox realize he has a running team? If there's a new coach next year, will he?

It's the uncertainty that has kept me from trying to buy Dwill in my keeper league. If he was getting 25+ carries a game without the a first round pick stealing some of his carries and better play calling he could be unbelievable.

 

[KSU_Shrink]

I'm interested in others' thoughts of Josh Freeman in dynasty now that he's been named the starter. Is he more Big Ben, J Russell, J Campbell or game manager? How does he compare to the other newbie starter: Henne, or the other rookies, now that we've seen them play a bit?

 

[Sebowski]

Any thoughts on Brian Hartline? I'm sure he is available in most leagues and reports are that he is practicing with the first team over Ginn and may start this week. Henne has also said that he likes throwing to him since they have been on the same poractice team for a while now. Is it time to grab him now before he is on everyone's radar after this week? What is his upside?

 

[Corbu]

I am also interested in thoughts on Freeman? Should I drop Young to pick him up?

Also looking to drop Chris Henry for Tate or Hartline...any thoughts?

Cheers.

 

[editor47]

currently torn on the following trade proposal. its a keeper league but not at dynasty levels. only keep 10 players from year to year.

i give up: michael turner, marques colston and a 2011 1st-round pick

i get: kurt warner and jon stewart

Warner is the highest-scoring player in our league in this deal. We start 2 QBs (one is a flex) and I only have Schaub. So in a league where QBs score a ton, this is a help. But losing Turner for Stewart while long-term could be a boost, is a definite loss in the short-term IMO.

IDK ... Any thoughts?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I'm not all that high on Hartline or Freeman. Hartline is a mediocre talent with positive marks for intelligence and work ethic. Freeman seems like another JaMarcus Russell to me. I was already skeptical of him and the fact that he's 15 pounds over weight going into his first NFL start doesn't make feel any better.

I was asked on twitter today who I would pick up between Hartline and Sammie Stroughter. I could see going Hartline if you need to make it through the bye week crunch, but I'd much rather carry Stroughter as a stash.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

currently torn on the following trade proposal. its a keeper league but not at dynasty levels. only keep 10 players from year to year.i give up: michael turner, marques colston and a 2011 1st-round picki get: kurt warner and jon stewartWarner is the highest-scoring player in our league in this deal. We start 2 QBs (one is a flex) and I only have Schaub. So in a league where QBs score a ton, this is a help. But losing Turner for Stewart while long-term could be a boost, is a definite loss in the short-term IMO. IDK ... Any thoughts?

Wow, you'd be giving up a ton. Seems like it would kill your starting lineup for the rest of the season. I can't see pulling the trigger on that one.

 

[SSOG]

So what are the thread's thoughts on Leon Washington? It sounds like the bone was sticking out of his leg. Are there any other instances where this kind of injury happened to a pro RB, of comparable or greater ability/potential (I'm thinking fringe players wouldn't count since they would be much less motivated to make a comeback)? The first player (non-RB) that comes to mind is Joe Theismann, but he had both a shattered fibula and tibia. The tibia is the load-bearing bone, but is a snapped fibula any "better" for an athlete? In "A Clinical Guide to Sports Injuries" the author states that an athlete can count on at least a 6 month absence from contact sports following a severe fracture. This would be assuming that no other complications occurred as a result of the injury. Theismann also suffered from avascular necrosis in his ankle following his injury (caused by a temporary or extended loss of blood to a body part), which is what ended Bo Jackson's football career (hip).

The only leg injuries I can find on notable RBs are the well-known ACL, MCL, knee, and ankle injuries. These generally follow a "two year" rule where it takes a player two years to return to his former level, mainly due to hesitation and lack of confidence in the year after. This website has more detailed information as well as a chart that shows RBs with leg injuries and their season before and after the injury: http://www.footballdocs.com/RB_injury_rule.html.

Are people going to wait and see what develops? Try to lock him up for cheap?

Ed McCaffrey broke his leg in week 1 of 2001, then came back and was a productive player again in 2002- his TD totals were low, but his yardage/reception numbers were pretty much what you'd expect (just slightly below his career averages, which is more attributable to him turning 34 and losing a half step than anything related to the injury).I'm down on Leon Washington, but it has nothing to do with his injury and everything to do with the fact that he's Jerious Norwood North. Like I said in the offseason, if Washington was really anything more than a role player, the Jets wouldn't have made such an effort to move up and acquire another workhorse RB in the draft.

But aside from these trivial and moot points, raise your hand if you believed in Hester before now? Where have y'all been? This was very evident off of last year's film and production with pitiful Orton as the QB. Enter JC in '09 as the trigger man and it was a wrap that Hester would take off this year.

I traded Brian Westbrook and a 2nd rounder for him this past offseasn.

Re: Rice's ranking. He's moving into Tier 2, ahead of Michael Turner and Matt Forte. He's in that mix with DeAngelo Williams, Ronnie Brown, Knowshon Moreno, and Frank Gore. I could see him probably around No. 8 or so.

What's this? Ronnie Brown ahead of Michael Turner?

I must have missed this (bold) before. Has Marshall ever scored double-digit TDs? V-Jax probably will this season, and Andre1500 has yet to hit the magic mark either. Going forward I believe that DeSean could have just as many double-digit TD seasons as almost any WR this side of R.Moss (every year he decides to play) and maybe Fitz, and maybe Calvin. I don't see much difference in what DeSean is doing this season as opposed to what Calvin did last season, really. Perception of value in comparing players is not always the reality of their production. For this year, and there may be other years vs. other WRs as well, but for this year I'd clearly rather have DeSean over Calvin. Over the next 5-7 year span, which WR ends up with the better numbers? Right now, I honestly don't know but I'd bet on it being closer than many think in regards to quite a few of the Top 10-12 WRs.

I said THREAT of double-digit TDs going forward. Chris Chambers has had several double-digit TD seasons, but I don't view him as a double digit TD threat. Marshall is too big and too strong to be shut down in the end zone, and Orton seems to be looking his way a lot by the goal line. I think he's a strong TD threat going forward. VJax is the quintessential TD threat going forward (he shares the Randy Moss/Javon Walker gene where he's both a stellar deep threat *AND* a stellar red-zone weapon, so he'll get his both ways). Andre Johnson doesn't have a double-digit TD season, but that's total semantics- he had 8 scores in 9 games in 2007, which is far more impressive than 10 scores in 16 games. And besides, I'd already said that Andre hasn't demonstrated he can be a reliable double digit TD threat (and neither has Calvin).Generally, in order for a WR to become a major double-digit TD threat, he needs to play for an unstoppable offense that piles up passing TDs like nobody's business (Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison), or he needs to be one of the greatest red zone receivers the league has ever seen (Larry Fitzgerald, Terrell Owens), or he needs to be able to score inside the red zone AND outside the red zone (Randy Moss). Vincent Jackson fits the bill. I think Brandon Marshall has the potential to fit the bill. I'm betting that both Andre and Calvin fit the bill. I don't see DeSean fitting any of those categories, though. You simply cannot make your living as a deep threat/open field guy and still expect to average 10+ TDs a year. Outside of Bambi, I can't think of a single guy who made his bones going deep and/or getting the ball in space who was able to routinely put up 10+ scores. Even Steve Smith, the absolute gold standard for WRs of that type, has only topped 10 scores once in his entire career (12 in his career year). Chad Ochocinco also only has a single 10+ TD season... and that was an even 10. You simply need that red zone component to your game, and you even admitted yourself that DeSean doesn't have it (saying he's unguardable over 80 yards of the field).

Well my point is that Carolina is doing a terrible job of play calling, and that Stewart has missed games yet again. My point is both Ricky and Ronnie are top 10 right now (believe it... or not), and McGahee's fast start still has him hanging around at #14 or 15. If you are a running team, you can have two successful RBs that are legit fantasy RB1 or RB2. Does Fox realize he has a running team? If there's a new coach next year, will he?

Stewart has never missed a game in his NFL career.

 

[BringItOn]

What's your take on the long term value of Slaton vs Pierre?

in PPR, Slaton gets a ton of looks, but in NO, Bush gets more of those than Pierre.

Pierre has the makings of a beast if he would carry the majority of the load, but the insistance of them to use mike Bell, Thomas' value is severely limited.

The biggest knock on Slaton is the coaching staff. Even if Slaton contines to do well this year, I see them almost certain to bring someone else in next year, simply based on the comments early on regarding wishing they hadn't passed on Benson.