[DYNASTY] RB rankings (1 Viewer)

[moderated]

They are your rankings and I appreciate the effort that goes into doing them, but I think you are pretty far off the money with Ernie Graham.I'd go as far to say he'll flirt with the top 10 in 2008, and although he's 28 and will be done sooner than many on this list, he's definitely more valuable than the 35-40 range IMHO.

We'll see. I don't think he's anything special.

Agreed he's not special, but fortunately for him all the special RB's have jobs already (there are only about 5-7 special RB's in the entire NFL)I don't disagree with the Graham ranking, but he's pretty locked into the starter role for 08' and as long as he doesn't flop he should be able to keep the job in 09'.There aren't any FA RB's Tampa can bring in that are an upgrade at all and unless they draft a RB in the 1st or 2nd (which i doubt) he isn't going to have much competition to keep the job.Whether Tampa signs him to a decent extension is huge as far as Grahams dynasty value goes.His upside is for 2-3 years of being a starting RB, which isn't a guarantee since only a few RB's have that kind of security, but just being a safe bet for 08' should put him in the 25-30 range IMO. I can see how someone could have him lower though.

 

[Irish]

How many productive years do you see Westy having left? He has low mileage, but has had injury concerns...I'm thinking another 3 years of top 5 productivity?

2-3 years

With 2-3 years of top productivity left, would you still rather have him than an elite young back like Steven Jackson?

I'm a little more of a "win now" guy when it comes to RBs since they can't be counted on to stay healthy for long. Steven Jackson is young, but he's already had some knee surgery and he doesn't have the body type or running style that leads me to believe he is going to have a long career. That said, you can make an argument for him over LT and Westbrook if you think he's going to play 5-6 more seasons at 100%.

Part of the problem with trying to do dynasty RB rankings is that a RB's value is largely dependent on the context of your FF team. Short-term backs like Lewis and Rudi have zero value to rebuilding teams. On the flipside, unproven backs like DeAngelo Williams and Kenny Irons probably aren't the best investment if you're a contender right now.

I'm definitely biased towards SJ because I own him, but I don't think I'd trade him straight up for any player - including Peterson.

Seriously?? I would love to see an "ADP for SJax" trade offer sitting on your league's trade screen.

I think the two are very close in talent. I trust Jacksons durabilty a bit more, and AD has the better O-line, but is still splitting carries with Taylor. I own Jackson, and i am not so sure i woud take AD for him right now.

Peterson is the more talented of the two and that is no diss on SJax. Another thing to factor in is that St Louis def is not that good and takes away from TOP for SJax and also puts them into passing to play catch up more.

 

[EBF]

They are your rankings and I appreciate the effort that goes into doing them, but I think you are pretty far off the money with Ernie Graham.I'd go as far to say he'll flirt with the top 10 in 2008, and although he's 28 and will be done sooner than many on this list, he's definitely more valuable than the 35-40 range IMHO.

We'll see. I don't think he's anything special.

Agreed he's not special, but fortunately for him all the special RB's have jobs already (there are only about 5-7 special RB's in the entire NFL)I don't disagree with the Graham ranking, but he's pretty locked into the starter role for 08' and as long as he doesn't flop he should be able to keep the job in 09'.There aren't any FA RB's Tampa can bring in that are an upgrade at all and unless they draft a RB in the 1st or 2nd (which i doubt) he isn't going to have much competition to keep the job.Whether Tampa signs him to a decent extension is huge as far as Grahams dynasty value goes.His upside is for 2-3 years of being a starting RB, which isn't a guarantee since only a few RB's have that kind of security, but just being a safe bet for 08' should put him in the 25-30 range IMO. I can see how someone could have him lower though.

Assuming he'll be their starter for two years is extremely optimistic. There are a million ways he could lose its job. I'm not nearly as confident as you are that the team will be content relying on him as their workhorse.

 

[got_nugs]

Well the fans down here sure like Graham....and we all know that fan favorite RB's under Gruden thrive. Just ask Mike Alstott.

As far as Norwood, I don't think anyone with Norwood would trade him for SAlexander. In fact i've tried that in 2 leagues as a SA owner with no luck. Anyone seen that deal going down? I can get Irons +++ for Norwood in the league I own him in. Like you said earlier at that point it's tough to estimate.

 

[moderated]

They are your rankings and I appreciate the effort that goes into doing them, but I think you are pretty far off the money with Ernie Graham.I'd go as far to say he'll flirt with the top 10 in 2008, and although he's 28 and will be done sooner than many on this list, he's definitely more valuable than the 35-40 range IMHO.

We'll see. I don't think he's anything special.

Agreed he's not special, but fortunately for him all the special RB's have jobs already (there are only about 5-7 special RB's in the entire NFL)I don't disagree with the Graham ranking, but he's pretty locked into the starter role for 08' and as long as he doesn't flop he should be able to keep the job in 09'.There aren't any FA RB's Tampa can bring in that are an upgrade at all and unless they draft a RB in the 1st or 2nd (which i doubt) he isn't going to have much competition to keep the job.Whether Tampa signs him to a decent extension is huge as far as Grahams dynasty value goes.His upside is for 2-3 years of being a starting RB, which isn't a guarantee since only a few RB's have that kind of security, but just being a safe bet for 08' should put him in the 25-30 range IMO. I can see how someone could have him lower though.

Assuming he'll be their starter for two years is extremely optimistic. There are a million ways he could lose its job. I'm not nearly as confident as you are that the team will be content relying on him as their workhorse.

Very true, but there are a million ways any of the guys ranked after 15 or so could lose their job...and many of them don't even have a starting job to begin with.Guys like Thomas Jones, Chester Taylor, Sean Alexander (i wouldn't even have him in my top 50 since he doesn't even start anymore and looks terrible), etc are older and have no more of a hold on their job (2 of them don't even have a starting job) then Graham.But as you've said, there really isn't much dynasty value in any of the RB's after the top 15-20, so who really cares how they are ranked from 20-40, none of them have much value at that stage.

 

[dmac37]

Good list! I like that Kevin Jones is around 20. Talent to be a top 7-10 guy, injury risk to make it impossible to list him that high until proven otherwise. I wonder how a new coaching staff will effect the number of carries that Norwood will get. Everyone in the world except the quitter thought he should be getting more touches. I think 2008 will answer many questions for this guy. I personally have him ranked much higher, but I can understand the reasoning. Of course the same applies to Reggie Bush/Marion Barber/DeAngelo Williams and others, and i'd probably take Maroney over all of them, but this is due to personal preference as much as anything. Nice work.

I agree about KJ, if healthy I know "A BIG IF" but he has proven that he can produce both running the ball and as a receiver. The o-line seemed to be coming along in run blocking and Martz and his flying circus are gone. Even though the new OC talked about bringing in competition, I think if healthy he will remain the guy, with huge upside. At one point this year he was talked about as being in the top 10 for dynasty, before Martz killed his value and the knee injury. He also shocked everyone by coming back so early from the lis franc (sp?), and he is ahead of schedule with the knee injury.Bottom line he is only 26 and can be had cheap and pay off big.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Good list! I like that Kevin Jones is around 20. Talent to be a top 7-10 guy, injury risk to make it impossible to list him that high until proven otherwise. I wonder how a new coaching staff will effect the number of carries that Norwood will get. Everyone in the world except the quitter thought he should be getting more touches. I think 2008 will answer many questions for this guy. I personally have him ranked much higher, but I can understand the reasoning. Of course the same applies to Reggie Bush/Marion Barber/DeAngelo Williams and others, and i'd probably take Maroney over all of them, but this is due to personal preference as much as anything. Nice work.

I agree about KJ, if healthy I know "A BIG IF" but he has proven that he can produce both running the ball and as a receiver. The o-line seemed to be coming along in run blocking and Martz and his flying circus are gone. Even though the new OC talked about bringing in competition, I think if healthy he will remain the guy, with huge upside. At one point this year he was talked about as being in the top 10 for dynasty, before Martz killed his value and the knee injury. He also shocked everyone by coming back so early from the lis franc (sp?), and he is ahead of schedule with the knee injury.Bottom line he is only 26 and can be had cheap and pay off big.

I've kicked-around the idea of offering Edge for KJ (...and maybe something else) in one of my dynasty leagues, but I just can't bring myself to do it. Even when KJ has been healthy (...or somewhat healthy) he has failed to top 4.0 yards/carry EVERY season since his rookie season. If you must, Martz can field some of the blame. However, it cannot be ignored that KJ has not topped 700 yards rushing since '04 and has suffered two very serious injuries (Lis Franc and torn ACL) since.I honestly do not think the Lions staff is fluffing when they reference future competition at the RB spot.

 

[got_nugs]

Good list! I like that Kevin Jones is around 20. Talent to be a top 7-10 guy, injury risk to make it impossible to list him that high until proven otherwise. I wonder how a new coaching staff will effect the number of carries that Norwood will get. Everyone in the world except the quitter thought he should be getting more touches. I think 2008 will answer many questions for this guy. I personally have him ranked much higher, but I can understand the reasoning. Of course the same applies to Reggie Bush/Marion Barber/DeAngelo Williams and others, and i'd probably take Maroney over all of them, but this is due to personal preference as much as anything. Nice work.

I agree about KJ, if healthy I know "A BIG IF" but he has proven that he can produce both running the ball and as a receiver. The o-line seemed to be coming along in run blocking and Martz and his flying circus are gone. Even though the new OC talked about bringing in competition, I think if healthy he will remain the guy, with huge upside. At one point this year he was talked about as being in the top 10 for dynasty, before Martz killed his value and the knee injury. He also shocked everyone by coming back so early from the lis franc (sp?), and he is ahead of schedule with the knee injury.Bottom line he is only 26 and can be had cheap and pay off big.

I've kicked-around the idea of offering Edge for KJ (...and maybe something else) in one of my dynasty leagues, but I just can't bring myself to do it. Even when KJ has been healthy (...or somewhat healthy) he has failed to top 4.0 yards/carry EVERY season since his rookie season. If you must, Martz can field some of the blame. However, it cannot be ignored that KJ has not topped 700 yards rushing since '04 and has suffered two very serious injuries (Lis Franc and torn ACL) since.I honestly do not think the Lions staff is fluffing when they reference future competition at the RB spot.

How much different is Kevin Jones than Reggie Bush, if you're looking at those numbers? In 2006 KJ 1,200 APY and the same number of TD's as Bush in the same year. Bush hasn't reached that 4.0 Y/C either. If you can ignore one, you can't ignore them all. Injury risk is the only reason I see Kevin out of the top 10. I would move Edge in a second in a dynasty for KJ. Personal preference, but I played against Edge in HS...that doesn't exactly make him a spring chicken.Competition is a good thing. Bring in a reason for KJ to push that much harder or to lose his job.

 

[sheerterror]

How many productive years do you see Westy having left? He has low mileage, but has had injury concerns...I'm thinking another 3 years of top 5 productivity?

2-3 years

With 2-3 years of top productivity left, would you still rather have him than an elite young back like Steven Jackson?

I'm a little more of a "win now" guy when it comes to RBs since they can't be counted on to stay healthy for long. Steven Jackson is young, but he's already had some knee surgery and he doesn't have the body type or running style that leads me to believe he is going to have a long career. That said, you can make an argument for him over LT and Westbrook if you think he's going to play 5-6 more seasons at 100%.

Part of the problem with trying to do dynasty RB rankings is that a RB's value is largely dependent on the context of your FF team. Short-term backs like Lewis and Rudi have zero value to rebuilding teams. On the flipside, unproven backs like DeAngelo Williams and Kenny Irons probably aren't the best investment if you're a contender right now.

I'm definitely biased towards SJ because I own him, but I don't think I'd trade him straight up for any player - including Peterson.

Seriously?? I would love to see an "ADP for SJax" trade offer sitting on your league's trade screen.

I think the two are very close in talent. I trust Jacksons durabilty a bit more, and AD has the better O-line, but is still splitting carries with Taylor. I own Jackson, and i am not so sure i woud take AD for him right now.

Well said. Peterson appears to be the better talent, but Jackson has shown the consistency and durability, neither of which AP has of yet. It'd be very difficult to find a Peterson owner willing to trade him straight up for Jackson, but if you ask most Jackson owners, I'm willing to bet that many would have a hard time making the trade as well.

 

[FUBAR]

How many productive years do you see Westy having left? He has low mileage, but has had injury concerns...I'm thinking another 3 years of top 5 productivity?

2-3 years

With 2-3 years of top productivity left, would you still rather have him than an elite young back like Steven Jackson?

I'm a little more of a "win now" guy when it comes to RBs since they can't be counted on to stay healthy for long. Steven Jackson is young, but he's already had some knee surgery and he doesn't have the body type or running style that leads me to believe he is going to have a long career. That said, you can make an argument for him over LT and Westbrook if you think he's going to play 5-6 more seasons at 100%.

Part of the problem with trying to do dynasty RB rankings is that a RB's value is largely dependent on the context of your FF team. Short-term backs like Lewis and Rudi have zero value to rebuilding teams. On the flipside, unproven backs like DeAngelo Williams and Kenny Irons probably aren't the best investment if you're a contender right now.

I'm definitely biased towards SJ because I own him, but I don't think I'd trade him straight up for any player - including Peterson.

Seriously?? I would love to see an "ADP for SJax" trade offer sitting on your league's trade screen.

I think the two are very close in talent. I trust Jacksons durabilty a bit more, and AD has the better O-line, but is still splitting carries with Taylor. I own Jackson, and i am not so sure i woud take AD for him right now.

Well said. Peterson appears to be the better talent, but Jackson has shown the consistency and durability, neither of which AP has of yet. It'd be very difficult to find a Peterson owner willing to trade him straight up for Jackson, but if you ask most Jackson owners, I'm willing to bet that many would have a hard time making the trade as well.

It's somewhat interesting, among the top 4, you can argue for pretty much any order. Perhaps not Westbrook over LT, but you can argue those 2 should be the top 2, or 3 and 4. AD/SJax/LT - who is #1 depends on perspective and plan. Most owners of any of those 3 wouldn't trade theirs for the others.

 

[JPeso]

Most owners of any of those 3 wouldn't trade theirs for the others.

Good point and I wish all of my leaguemates were watching. I own S-Jax in most of my leagues and always get offers from AP and LT where I also move him a stud WR in the deal. On another note, I am quite surprised SA is ranked so high. The others I can argue one way or the other, but SA, I don't know, guy just seems done. Keep up the great work EBF, this is a great read and stirs up plenty of discussion.

 

[Iron_Far]

Regarding Earnest Graham: Whom, outside of McFadden, Stewart, and Felix Jones would be better than Graham?

Mendenhall? Charles? Smith? Slaton?

 

[EBF]

Regarding Earnest Graham: Whom, outside of McFadden, Stewart, and Felix Jones would be better than Graham?Mendenhall? Charles? Smith? Slaton?

Tough to say. I would definitely take Mendenhall ahead of him. Smith, Forte, and Rice might also be better. In the free agent crop, Michael Turner, Justin Fargas, Musa Smith, Chris Brown, and Mewelde Moore would have the potential to take playing time from Graham.

 

[SSOG]

It's somewhat interesting, among the top 4, you can argue for pretty much any order. Perhaps not Westbrook over LT, but you can argue those 2 should be the top 2, or 3 and 4. AD/SJax/LT - who is #1 depends on perspective and plan. Most owners of any of those 3 wouldn't trade theirs for the others.

Yes, even Westbrook over Tomlinson.

 

[Tanner9919]

Ronnie Brown @ 15 is laughable, he probably won't be ready for the opening of camp, and might miss some time during the season..Parcells is in talks with Dallas in regards to the #1 overall pick , but he says any deal MUST include Marion Barber..

LJ at 14 is TOO low..I know he had one down year, but c'mon now.

 

[FUBAR]

Ronnie Brown @ 15 is laughable, he probably won't be ready for the opening of camp, and might miss some time during the season..Parcells is in talks with Dallas in regards to the #1 overall pick , but he says any deal MUST include Marion Barber..

LJ at 14 is TOO low..I know he had one down year, but c'mon now.

I hadn't heard any legitimate talk between Dallas and Parcells, nothing with Barber. Problem with LJ is we can't see any real reason to think his future will be better. His past was, but that OL is in shambles.

Bowe will be good, but Gonzalez is getting old. Croyle???? OL???

I've always thought LJ and McGahee were comparable talents, LJ benefitted from a system.

 

[SSOG]

Ronnie Brown @ 15 is laughable, he probably won't be ready for the opening of camp, and might miss some time during the season..Parcells is in talks with Dallas in regards to the #1 overall pick , but he says any deal MUST include Marion Barber..LJ at 14 is TOO low..I know he had one down year, but c'mon now.

It's Dynasty. Talent wins out in the end. Brown showed this year that he's a special talent, which means no matter what, he's going to continue getting starting jobs in the NFL. Maybe he won't be worth as much next year, but over the long haul, he's the real deal.

 

[Poppa]

1. Adrian Peterson2. LaDainian Tomlinson3. Brian Westbrook4. Steven Jackson5. Frank Gore6. Joseph Addai7. Marion Barber8. Marshawn Lynch9. Maurice Jones-Drew10. Reggie Bush11. Willis McGahee12. Laurence Maroney13. Clinton Portis14. Larry Johnson15. Ronnie Brown16. Willie Parker17. Michael Turner18. Ryan Grant19. DeAngelo Williams20. Kevin Jones21. LenDale White22. Chester Taylor23. Thomas Jones24. Shaun Alexander25. Brandon Jacobs26. Selvin Young27. Rudi Johnson28. Jamal Lewis29. Edgerrin James30. Justin Fargas31. Ahmad Bradshaw32. Kenny Irons33. Julius Jones34. DeShaun Foster35. Fred Taylor36. Deuce McAllister37. Carnell Williams38. Travis Henry39. Chris Henry40. Brandon Jackson41. Derrick Ward42. Michael Bush43. Musa Smith44. Chris Perry45. Ladell Betts46. Cedric Benson47. Jerious Norwood48. Leon Washington49. Mewelde Moore50. Ahman GreenSome thoughts here:- RB rankings are harder than WR rankings because there are roughly 60 starting WRs and only 32 starting RBs. So basically there are only 30-40 RBs receiving regular playing time, meaning it's difficult to judge guys like Leon Washington and Musa Smith because we don't get to see them play much. - In general, I think it's best to take more of a "win now" approach with RBs because they get hurt so often. I tend to value youth in WRs, but you can't count on your backs staying healthy for very long. - I still have Reggie Bush ranked pretty high on the chance that he puts it all together and starts living up to his potential. However, I wouldn't fault you for taking Portis or McGahee ahead of him in some leagues. They're safer picks. - I like MJD's talent. The big question with him is will he become the featured back when Taylor is finished, or will the Jaguars bring in another RB to handle part of the load? This question looms huge for MJD and will determine whether he becomes a top 5 type or a perennial RB2. Like Bush, he has more upside than McGahee and Portis but is also a bigger risk. - I don't think Norwood will ever be a featured back, which is why I have him down so low. - I think it's still too early to get a solid read on Ahmad Bradshaw. If you think he's a future starter then you can justify taking him 10 spots higher than where I have him. - I'm not really sold on Ryan Grant yet, but it's tough to justify ranking him much lower.