ROYALWITCHEESE said:
He's bigger, faster, and stronger than Wright though.
With Shorts already nursing a hammy (again), he's shaping up for double digit targets week one...
He's only 1.5" taller, 1 lb heavier. He ran a 4.52 at the Combine. Wright ran a 4.62 at the Combine, but high 4.4's at his Pro day. Both guys aren't really deep threats and are or will be doing their damage in the short and intermediate game.
Hmm. I have to disagree. Lee showed the ability to do everything in college, while Wright was doing similar things to what he does now.Lee has been lauded as a potential #1 WR by many experts. I've never seen one say that about Wright.
Define "everything". If Lee is expected to do everything, then why is he being used as and being talked about being used as a slot/space type of WR?
He's being used as a starting receiver on the outside in 2 WR formations, and as the slot WR when they go to 3 WRs. That is very different than what you wrote.
He's played 71% in the slot and is catching the ball 5.6 yards beyond the LOS. That is exactly what I described.
Those numbers are from 8 preseason targets. One of those receptions was a 57 yard TD (14 yards longer than the longest of Wright's 158 NFL receptions), and 2 of the 8 receptions were TDs (Wright has 6 total in the NFL).
If we're going to treat those numbers like they're meaningful, then one can easily say the picture they're painting is of a Kendall Wright player whose current fantasy limitations (lack of big plays and TD production) appear to be much less concerning.
8 targets but 62 pass routes though for a target rate of 12.9%.
Allen Hurns was 20/80 = 25%.
If Lee is going to be a #1 receiver, why isn't he being used like one?
Lee might be a "starter on the outside" but the Jaguars will run plenty of 3-WR sets as evidenced by his overly high usage in the slot in the preseason. Both his TDs were from the slot. And he wasn't that open on the 57-yard TD. Give some credit to Bortles for putting up a perfect throw, flat-footed and in the face of pressure.
The number of receivers who step into a "#1 role" their rookie year is vanishingly small. Is it really necessary to explain why a technically raw rookie WR who missed a decent chunk of the preseason with an injury might grow into a different/bigger role than what we've observed in his first 62 preseason routes? Or why he might temporarily take a proverbial backseat to a guy who was healthy all preseason and who played in that OC's system in college?
Robinson will probably be running #4 behind Hurns later today, and maybe for a few weeks after that even. It's relatively meaningless as far as the big picture goes, as I'm sure you would agree that Robinson has a pretty good shot at being the #1 receiver in that offense a few years down the road. You probably also don't expect Hurns to have a better fantasy season/career than Lee (in spite of the numbers you posted above), but I don't know that for sure and I don't want to put words in your mouth.
Regardless of how Robinson develops, I don't see any reason to believe that Lee can't develop into a top 15ish fantasy WR as long as Bortles doesn't faceplant. He's athletic/sudden enough to create separation and/or get deep even with imperfect technique. He has obvious RAC ability, though his judgement could use some work. He competes hard, and is a willing blocker. His hand technique needs to be addressed, and his routes can be sharpened, but I don't see either one of those as a fatal flaw.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding you, but you seem stuck on him topping out as a WR 2/3 fantasy tweener. I think his ceiling is higher than that. Not top 5 high, but top 15 isn't out of the question. We can agree to disagree there, as I respect the work that you put into breaking down these players.
I just think you're undermining the value of your own arguments when you use relatively flimsy supporting evidence to justify your position on how a prospect will transition to the NFL. You put a lot of work into forming those opinions, and we all know it. There's no need to prop them up and defend them with relatively meaningless numbers when others disagree. You've planted your flag, and time will tell the tale.