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[DYNASTY] The Rookie 100 Index (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Bloom
- Start date
Tick
Footballguy
I'll post my rankings here, but they aren't rolled up into a top 40. They're by position.RB: Brown - Benson - Cadillac - Arrington - Gore - Shelton - Clarett - Jacobs - Morrency - Barber - Moats - Fason - Pearman - Nash - SprolesWR: Edwards - Clayton - MWilliams - Williamson - Brown - MJones - Bradley - White - Murphy - Roby - Jackson - Parrish - Roydell - BJones - Thorpe - Henry - Lyman - Mathis - GibsonQB: ASmith - Rodgers - Campbell - McPherson - Frye - Walter - Greene - OrtonTE: Miller - ASmith - EverettDL: EJames - Tuck - Roth - CodyLB: Ruud - Crowder - Thurman - Tatupu - Mitchell - BeckI didn't rank DBs because of team needs.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I imagine you're talking about Z14, as I drafted Moats and Thurman in Z30.
Lord Farquaad
Footballguy
I'm surprised that Fason doesn't get much respect. I thought he was considered a 2nd round talent and the 4th or 5th best RB prospect going into the draft. Sure the Vikes backfield looked crowded, but 1 guy is now gone for the year, another guy is a FA at the end of the year and is more injury prone than Fred Taylor, and the 3rd guy seems not to have the respect of the coaching staff. I like Fason's long term prospects as much as any RB after the top 4, but it looks like I'm alone in that. 
jurb26
Footballguy
Well I'm sure just about everyone will be giving him a nice bump up now that O is gone.I'm surprised that Fason doesn't get much respect. I thought he was considered a 2nd round talent and the 4th or 5th best RB prospect going into the draft. Sure the Vikes backfield looked crowded, but 1 guy is now gone for the year, another guy is a FA at the end of the year and is more injury prone than Fred Taylor, and the 3rd guy seems not to have the respect of the coaching staff. I like Fason's long term prospects as much as any RB after the top 4, but it looks like I'm alone in that.
i didnt expect SOD to be a factor in the minnesota backfield next year anyway, so my ranking for fason is unchanged.Well I'm sure just about everyone will be giving him a nice bump up now that O is gone.I'm surprised that Fason doesn't get much respect. I thought he was considered a 2nd round talent and the 4th or 5th best RB prospect going into the draft. Sure the Vikes backfield looked crowded, but 1 guy is now gone for the year, another guy is a FA at the end of the year and is more injury prone than Fred Taylor, and the 3rd guy seems not to have the respect of the coaching staff. I like Fason's long term prospects as much as any RB after the top 4, but it looks like I'm alone in that.
jurb26
Footballguy
Oh come on now, he was their leading rusher last year and people doing things this stupid is unprecedented.i didnt expect SOD to be a factor in the minnesota backfield next year anyway, so my ranking for fason is unchanged.Well I'm sure just about everyone will be giving him a nice bump up now that O is gone.I'm surprised that Fason doesn't get much respect. I thought he was considered a 2nd round talent and the 4th or 5th best RB prospect going into the draft. Sure the Vikes backfield looked crowded, but 1 guy is now gone for the year, another guy is a FA at the end of the year and is more injury prone than Fred Taylor, and the 3rd guy seems not to have the respect of the coaching staff. I like Fason's long term prospects as much as any RB after the top 4, but it looks like I'm alone in that.
I think watson could be huge, he certainly has the skills to be a top 10 TE long term.Everett is just out of the top 40, he still has lots of upside, but his speed/size combo was one of his main assets, and he'll need get the knee back to 100% before he can flash it... i still like his prospects long term - worth a late 4th/5th rounder...
pretender
Footballguy
Buccaneers | Brackins ImpressiveThu, 19 May 2005 17:16:26 -0700--------------------------------------------------------------------------------620WDAE.com reports rookie WR Larry Brackins was very impressive during the Tampa Bay Buccaneers three-day organized team activities that wrapped up Thursday, May 19. Head coach Jon Gruden said Brackins made some "splash plays. If you can train this wild horse and that's kind of what I refer to him as, who knows you might have a stallion."Maybe Brackins should be bumped up a little in the rankings. Good call on your part Bloom that he made the top 40 to begin with. Will have to wait and see what else might come out of training camp this summer 
I do believe I got Marion Barber in Z30....ArringtonI imagine you're talking about Z14, as I drafted Moats and Thurman in Z30.
Gore
Barber
V. Jackson
Brackens
Roydell W
L. Mitchell
Pretty happy with this group even though its probably going to be a wait and see. Im fairly solid at the starter positions so I have time.
Anyone have a take on Roydell Williams? Are we going to omitt the dell from his name anytime soon.....hehe
im going to expand this to top 50 or 60 soon, and roydell will be in the 40-45 range. he projects well into the possession WR role that tennessee is lacking, AND he is the most polished of the 3 WRs tennessee drafted which gives him the inside track to the #3 WR role if they dont sign a vet. Not much upside with roydell, but i bet he settles in as a nice fantasy WR4.I do believe I got Marion Barber in Z30....ArringtonI imagine you're talking about Z14, as I drafted Moats and Thurman in Z30.
Gore
Barber
V. Jackson
Brackens
Roydell W
L. Mitchell
Pretty happy with this group even though its probably going to be a wait and see. Im fairly solid at the starter positions so I have time.
Anyone have a take on Roydell Williams? Are we going to omitt the dell from his name anytime soon.....hehe
Men-in-Cleats
Footballguy
You don't think Roby has a much better shot at getting PT this year? I've got him down for only a 4.6 40 time and at 6' and 190 it isn't like he has a big frame to make him a nice big target or a jump ball in the endzone guy. Even if he is a bit more polished, I'd think they'd be more likely to try to get a speedy sub 4.4 guy like Roby on the field to stretch the defense and open things up for Bennett, Calico, and the TE.im going to expand this to top 50 or 60 soon, and roydell will be in the 40-45 range. he projects well into the possession WR role that tennessee is lacking, AND he is the most polished of the 3 WRs tennessee drafted which gives him the inside track to the #3 WR role if they dont sign a vet. Not much upside with roydell, but i bet he settles in as a nice fantasy WR4.I do believe I got Marion Barber in Z30....ArringtonI imagine you're talking about Z14, as I drafted Moats and Thurman in Z30.
Gore
Barber
V. Jackson
Brackens
Roydell W
L. Mitchell
Pretty happy with this group even though its probably going to be a wait and see. Im fairly solid at the starter positions so I have time.
Anyone have a take on Roydell Williams? Are we going to omitt the dell from his name anytime soon.....hehe
roby will be williams' main competition, definitely not jones who is a project - but i think roby's main asset is his speed, and while you're right - he can stretch the field - they already have bennett and calico for that. im giving williams the edge in their competition because early reports are that fisher is very impressed with him, but only camp will tell. roby will also be in that 40-45 range, so for dynasty i consider them very close.
there's a debate about jacobs in this thread... i just believe he's a one dimensional RB who will never be a feature back.Jackson is a tough call, in fact all of the "project" WR are the tough calls - I like Jackson's size, but I honestly dont think he's that much better of a prospect than thorpe or henry long term, and he doesnt have white/bradley/jones's upside and i ranked him accordingly. I grant that he could easily end up being a top 3 WR from this class, about 12-15 different guys could - its all guesswork at this point, thats why i wouldnt invest higher than the #20 on any of the unpolished guys except williamson, for obvious reasons.
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Yep, Brandon Jacobs should be alot higher... Your prestigious draft expert sites aren't dong ya very good when evaluating this kids overall talent. Unless he breaks both his knee's he will be the #2 and if he plays well he might eventually take over for Tiki, if not he will be a TD machine and I'd rather have a TJ Duckett over half the guys you listed before him.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
Did you see the Ron Turner quotes about using T. Jones and Benson together...?As such, I'd put the most talented runner at the top of the list....which is WIlliams.
youre probably right - its funny how tampa was the team that we worried most about not having a true feature back at first, and now caddy is in the least cloudy situation.I still think predicting who will have the best career of the 3 is a crapshoot. All could be huge if their coordinators/coaches use them correctly.Did you see the Ron Turner quotes about using T. Jones and Benson together...?As such, I'd put the most talented runner at the top of the list....which is WIlliams.
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
Agreed. However, as this demonstrates, sometimes people put way too much emphasis on situation rather then the runner. Brown was selected first among the RBs for a reason, but people were calling him the "no brainer #1" selection in rookie drafts because his situation was so nice. Now, things have gone awry and I'm sure more than a couple people are wishing they'd used the 1.01 on someone else.youre probably right - its funny how tampa was the team that we worried most about not having a true feature back at first, and now caddy is in the least cloudy situation.I still think predicting who will have the best career of the 3 is a crapshoot. All could be huge if their coordinators/coaches use them correctly.Did you see the Ron Turner quotes about using T. Jones and Benson together...?As such, I'd put the most talented runner at the top of the list....which is WIlliams.
Another example: JJ Arrington. He's going pretty much top-5 (rarely out of the top-4 actually) in every draft I've seen. What if, out of nowhere, the Cards sign someone else? ANyone else, from Travis Henry to Eddie George to whoever the Broncos cut, etc. Arrington would go from top of the 1st guy to mid-late first guy if he's lucky.
Strange things happen to situations. Strange things indeed.
COlin
Men-in-Cleats
Footballguy
Rather than just bash other's source of information, why don't you present what you have based your opinion on. While Bloom and myself are on opposite ends of this argument from Pony Boy, he has presented his side of the argument very well and has contributed to the discussion 1000 times more than your generic statements above. If you've seen him play tell us what you've seen. If you've seen different reviews of his performance, post the links. If you have information coming from the Giant's organization or local sports coverage, let us know. As for the TJ Duckett types, he is valuable because he's shown some ability to carry the load as a featured back but if I want to win this year I wouldn't want him. It is too frustrating to be forced to start a guy to see him get 5 carries for 20 yards one week only to have him get 100 yards and 2 TD's for your bench the following week. Goalline backs do not give you consistent production. I don't want a back (unless I can get him real cheap) that I don't see having the ability to get a bunch of carries in a game.
kellumsboys
Footballguy
great job.very good work. 
I have a draft going on now (slowly).I traded up from 7 to 5 to grab Braylon Edwards since I didn't like Williamson or Williams anywhere close.I still managed to grab Morency at 28 to go with D.Davis.and then Frye at 33 (7 IDPs had gone by then).I had all 3 ranked in my top 20. 
_____________________________I have the #3 pick in my other dynasty 
I have a draft going on now (slowly).I traded up from 7 to 5 to grab Braylon Edwards since I didn't like Williamson or Williams anywhere close.I still managed to grab Morency at 28 to go with D.Davis.and then Frye at 33 (7 IDPs had gone by then).I had all 3 ranked in my top 20. _____________________________I have the #3 pick in my other dynasty 
Dope
Footballguy
That wasn't always there...was it?If it was...Sorry for being a tool.
If it wasn't...Thanks yo.
(I got JJ & Pearman in rounds 1 & 2 of my draft. Stupidly traded my 3rd round pick to handcuff Antowain to Deuce. 4th rounder was Kevin Curtis, 5th rounder Derrick Hamilton...oh well on DH. My 6th rounder of our Rookie/FA draft was Orlovsky. I was shocked SHOCKED I tell you that I got him at 74th overall.
for some reason, QBs in general are very undervalued in this years rookie drafts - im wondering if it has anything to do with how weak the crop was last year after the first rounders. I got Lefors and Orlovsky in the 6th and 7th of a 14 team rookie draft. Orlovsky is worth at worst a 4th because he is in a situation that lacks an established long term QB and he's already made a good impression on the staff - not to mention the WRs he would inherit if he does get a shot. Lefors is also worth a 4th because he's an excellent running QB and has all the intangibles - meaning he should get a shot eventually. Lefors may be one of the most underrated players in the draft. from a game play standpoint, he wasnt all that far off of alex smith last year - the only significant difference i can find is a few inches of height - they both project as ideal west coast offense QBs.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Just wanted to let Bloom know that his endorsement of Jerome Collins led me to examine him more and then pick him up as a UDFA in Z30. Thanks man!
I just have a feeling about collins. He's clearly a superb natural football talent. He was a WR in high school, but bob davie was too small minded at ND to let him stay there - he thought a guy with the size/speed collins has just had to be a LB. Collins says his time on D was good because it developed the physical side of his game, but he always felt like an offensive player. he begged ty willingham to play offense, and willingham let him. he was extremely raw at TE last year, but showed flashes of special ability. His standout play on special teams as a gunner (just pause for a second and think about a guy who is 6'4" 265 being fast enough to be a gunner) tells me that he's got a good work ethic. The rams TE coach convinced the brass to move up in the 5th to take collins with the tape of his work as a gunner at notre dame...The raw materials are there for a stud receiving TE - he already has receiving instincts from his time as WR and has shown flashes of very good open field running ability for a guy his size...Just wanted to let Bloom know that his endorsement of Jerome Collins led me to examine him more and then pick him up as a UDFA in Z30. Thanks man!
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i have taken the first crack at weaving IDPs into my rankings.a few cavaets:1) this is a first draft, there will probably be tons of tweaking of where the IDPs fall in the next few weeks.2) no links for the IDPs yet, ill add those as time permits.MOST IMPORTANTLY3) I am very reluctant to take IDPs in rookie drafts and my rankings reflect that. I dont want to bore too much with my strategy in dynasty leagues, but in a nutshell, I just think that there is too much decent talent and production among IDPs on the waiver wire in dynasty leagues to spend any higher than a 3rd on an IDP no matter how great their projections are. Additionally, No IDP should ever go higher than the 70s or 80s in an initial dynasty draft - their long term value is artificially capped - i will take my chances on a quality offensive prospect before any of the blue chip IDPs.I know some will disagree and i think its very valid to take the position that you should take that blue chip LB who represents less risk than the offensive prospect, but I have a very unorthodox approach and I dont expect others to agree with it.Bottom Line: Bump Up ALL of the IDPs if you disagree with my assertions.
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Colin Dowling
Footballguy
No Erasmus James in the top-100? Or did I miss him?
He's there - #81 - probably a lot lower than most would rank him. I have him as the #2 DE (not counting the DE/OLB tweeners) behind tuck(#67). Im down on james because of his injury history, and frankly he doesnt have that long of a track record of excellence. He's one of those guys that I am basically projecting as a bust.Also keep in mind that I'm ranking IDPs that arent LBs with the theory that only the very very best DTs DEs Ss and CBs hold value in dynasty leagues. I would be reluctant to spend a rookie pick on guys at any of those positions unless i see stardom in their future. There are always adequate guys at those positions on the waiver wire in dynasty leagues unless your rosters are HUGE. I would take all but the most speculative LB and offensive prospects before any of the lesser IDP positions unless i feel confident that they will be a top 15 guy at their position down the line.
Renegades of Funk
Footballguy
Great job Bloom! I think I can speak for everyone on the site and thank you for all the hard work putting this together.
just to flesh out my theory a bit further (although i said i wouldnt ) -i think you can trade speculative offensive talent for starting quality (not elite, but starting quality) IDPs in most any dynasty league. You may get burned if none of your offensive projects progress in their development, because they have zero value, as opposed to the blue chip IDPs, who will at worst have modest value, but if one, just one of your offensive prospects hit, you can trade them for just about any IDP, even the elites. Look at a guy like Clarence Moore - an afterthought in rookie drafts - now you could probably get a starting quality LB (in start 3 leagues) for him based on where he is going in initial dynasty drafts.two keys to seeing this strategy through:1) scout the offensive rookies closely.2) once the season starts be ready to beat other owners to the punch on the waiver wire when FA IDPs get shots due to starters injury or demotion. Gibril Wilson and Erik Coleman, two of the best IDPs out of last years draft, were almost certainly FAs at the beginning of the year in every dynasty league.Bottom line: you are much more likely to get solid IDPs from the waiver wire than solid offensive talent -use your rookie picks and waiver wire pickups accordingly.
) -i think you can trade speculative offensive talent for starting quality (not elite, but starting quality) IDPs in most any dynasty league. You may get burned if none of your offensive projects progress in their development, because they have zero value, as opposed to the blue chip IDPs, who will at worst have modest value, but if one, just one of your offensive prospects hit, you can trade them for just about any IDP, even the elites. Look at a guy like Clarence Moore - an afterthought in rookie drafts - now you could probably get a starting quality LB (in start 3 leagues) for him based on where he is going in initial dynasty drafts.two keys to seeing this strategy through:1) scout the offensive rookies closely.2) once the season starts be ready to beat other owners to the punch on the waiver wire when FA IDPs get shots due to starters injury or demotion. Gibril Wilson and Erik Coleman, two of the best IDPs out of last years draft, were almost certainly FAs at the beginning of the year in every dynasty league.Bottom line: you are much more likely to get solid IDPs from the waiver wire than solid offensive talent -use your rookie picks and waiver wire pickups accordingly.
thank you sirIDPs just on the outside who could vault well into the top 100 with good camps:boomer grigsby, nick speegle, matt mccoy, michael boley, marvel underwood, jerome carter, gerald sensabaugh, james sanders, andre maddox, johnathan babineaux, mike patterson, shaun cody, and bryant mcfadden.
EBF
Footballguy
Pearman. :X He's the textbook example of overrating a RB and overrating a player based on his immediate situation. He has no chance of being a starting RB in two years. You're making a huge mistake if you take him over guys like Roddy White, Matt Jones, Chris Henry, Aaron Rodgers, and Adrian McPherson.
EBF
Footballguy
ex·cep·tion ( P ) Pronunciation Key (k-spshn)n.
The act of excepting or the condition of being excepted; exclusion.
One that is excepted, especially a case that does not conform to a rule or generalization.
One of the poorest arguments that I consistently see on these boards is posters citing exceptions in order to prove that a player with such and such deficiency is going to succeed.
Since you decided to name some guys, I thought I'd do the same:
Aaron Hayden
Larry Jones
Ray Zellars
Kantroy Barber
Chris Darkins
Brian Milne
Ricky Whittle
Nicky Sualua
Chad Levitt
Darnell Autry
Leon Johnson
Tavian Banks
Curtis Alexander
Carlos King
Olandis Gary
Sean Bennett
Sedrick Irvin
Deon Dyer
Frank Moreau
Curtis Keaton
George Layne
Moran Norris
Jonathan Wells
Omar Easy
Travis Stephens
Najeh Davenport
These are some of the quality backs taken in the fourth round between 1995-2001. If I included backs chosen in the 6th round (Davis) and undrafted backs who signed a contract (Holmes) then the list would be even larger.
Obviously there are occasional fourth round hits like Domanick Davis and Rudi Johnson, but there are far, far more misses. If you're talking about taking Alvin Pearman at #19 then you're surely passing up first day talents. That's a mistake. First day picks typically have a much greater chance of panning out than fourth round picks. This is particularly true when you start talking about 1st and 2nd round picks. You may hit on a 4th rounder from time to time, but you're making a bad gamble when you take Alvin Pearman over the likes of Matt Jones and Roddy White.
Well if you really want to know:- His highlights are unimpressive. He doesn't look very good to me. He's not particularly explosive, he's not powerful, and he's not even that quick considering his size.
- His physical skills are fairly average:
40 yard dash - 4.67 s
Vertical leap - 34"
Broad jump - 9'6"
Three cone drill - 7.06 s
20 yard shuttle - 4.08 s
He did well in the three cone drill and shuttle, but there's still not enough here to support the idea that he has NFL starter caliber physical tools.
- He split carries in college. I know, so did Cadillac Williams and Ronnie Brown. The difference is that those guys they were both first round talents. You can also point to Kevin Jones as an example of a good player splitting carries, but Lee Suggs was considered a first day talent. Even Domanick Davis had LaBrandon Toefield. As for Pearman, he lost touches to Wali Lundy. Lundy has been productive, but I'll be very surprised if he's a first day pick next year.
Anyhow, I suppose I shouldn't go as far as saying that Pearman has "no chance" of starting in two years. My personal opinion is that he doesn't, but stranger things have happened. That's not the point. The point is that he doesn't appear to be a very special talent and that he doesn't seem worthy of a top 20 rookie draft selection.
Here's a very simple analogy. Let's pretend that you're in a casino. There are two games. In one game, you have a one in six chance of doubling your money. In the other game, you have a one in four chance of doubling your money. Neither game has a positive expected value, but the one in four game gives you the best odds. However, does this mean that you will never win playing the one in six game? No, it simply means you're going to win more often playing the other game.
You may hit with an Alvin Pearman every now and then, but you're much more likely to hit with a Roddy White or a Matt Jones. I don't recommend going against the odds unless you have a good reason to do so. I think most of the people who take Pearman high do so because Fred Taylor's status is in question. That's not a good enough reason in a dynasty league. Mediocre talents simply don't last, regardless of what their immediate opportunity may be.
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