[DYNASTY] The Rookie 100 Index (1 Viewer)

[Weiner Dog]

Pearman. :X

He's the textbook example of overrating a RB and overrating a player based on his immediate situation. He has no chance of being a starting RB in two years. You're making a huge mistake if you take him over guys like Roddy White, Matt Jones, Chris Henry, Aaron Rodgers, and Adrian McPherson.

Yep, as were Dom Davis, Terrell Davis, Priest Holmes, etc.Or is there something besides his being drafted in the 4th, and being a good receiving RB to justify that comment?

I'd have to partly agree with EBF here (minus Henry and McPherson). You would be lucky to have a 5% "hit-rate" with RB's drafted in the 4th-round or lower since Holmes' rookie year of '98. In fact, from '98 to '03 only two RB's drafted in the 4th-round or lower (Rudi Johnson and Domanick Davis) can truly be called a top RB today.

Don't get me wrong...WR's and QB's also extremely unfavorable hit-and-miss percentages when compared to other positions. However, 1st-rounders like Roddy White, Matt Jones, and Aaron Rogers have a much better than 5% chance to suceed.

Here's the list of RB's drafted in the 4th-round or later from '98 until '03. Feel free to include names you deem "Rudi" or "DD" worthy, but I think there two guys are on another level when compared to Pittman, Buckhalter, Blaylock, Davenport, C Taylor, O Smith, L Suggs, or any other RB with limited success.

Keep in mind, though, this list does not include undrafted free-agents from '98 to '03 who were invited to camp...but flopped. If Priest (ie. a former undrafted free-agent) is being referrenced, it's only fair to note this. If undrafted free-agents were included, I'm assuming the 5% clip would quickly drop to the 0-1% range.

1998

Michael Pittman – AZ

Tavian Banks – JAX

Curtis Alexander – DEN

Raymond Priester – StL

Jonathan Linton – BUF

Wilmont Perry – NO

Chris Howard – DEN

Dustin Johnson – NYJ

Ken Oxendine – ATL

Marcus Parker – CIN

Edwin Watson – GB

Tarik Smith – DAL

Ernest Blackwell – KC

1999

Sedrick Irvin – DET

Sean Bennett – NYG

Olandis Gary – DEN

Cecil Collins – MIA

Charlie Rogers – SEA

De'Mond Parker – GB

Madre Hill – CLE

Autry Denson – TB

2000

Curtis Keaton – CIN

Frank Moreau – KC

Michael Wiley – DAL

Sammy Morris – BUF

Chad Morton – NO

Thomas Hamner – PHI

Shyrone Stith – JAX

Rondell Mealey – GB

2001

Rudi Johnson – CIN

George Layne – KC

Correll Buckhalter – PHI

Derrick Blaylock – KC

Chris Barnes – BALT

Dee Brown – CAR

Dan Alexander – TEN

2002

Jonathan Wells – HOU

Travis Stephens – TB

Najeh Davenport – GB

Larry Ned – OAK

Adrian Peterson – CHI

Brian Allen – IND

Chester Taylor – BALT

Luke Staley – DET

Antwoine Womack – NE

Leonard Henry – MIA

Jarrett Ferguson – BUF

Rock Cartwright – WAS

2003

Artose Pinner – DET

Domanick Davis – HOU

Onterrio Smith – MIN

Quentin Griffin – DEN

Lee Suggs – CLE

LaBrandon Toefield – JAX

Ahmaad Galloway – DEN

Brandon Drumm – DET

J.T. Wall – PIT

Casey Moore – CAR

 

[Bloom]

If 4th round RBs are so worthless, why arent y'all complaining about my rankings of barber and fason?

 

[Dope]

If 4th round RBs are so worthless, why arent y'all complaining about my rankings of barber and fason?

Ouch. That's gonna leave a mark.

 

[Bloom]

i think comparing pearman to all RBs taken in the 4th round or later is way too broad. it makes more sense to me to compare pearman to RBs who went in the middle of the draft because of their versatility, not being considered in the top part of the draft because they lacked measureables and the ideal profile for a feature back. Guess what, when you look closer, all of the last 3 draft have produced a pretty nifty fantasy back who matches pearman's profile -2004: Moore (4th)2003: DDavis (4th)2002: Westbrook (late 3rd round)Who would you rather have right now, Michael Jenkins or Mewelde Moore? Mewelde Moore or JP Losman? I see the choice between Pearman and White/Jones/Rodgers as a similar choice. Its not a slam dunk either way - notice that they are very close in the rankings - you may differ on which you would want - but you have to grant that it is a valid choice to pass on the first round WR project for the 4th round back who can contribute in many different ways, but is not an ideal feature back...

 

[Finatic]

Somehow I see this thread getting bumped in 6 months or so.........

 

[Bloom]

Somehow I see this thread getting bumped in 6 months or so.........

oh man, im sure that im wrong on at least half of these guys. I dont mind sticking my neck out on these predictions because everyone who talks to me has probably already made up their mind that i am coming from a valid place, or are full of it (the truth lies in between )I just love starting the discussion - that was why i wanted to get my rankings out right away - obviously no one should take my rankings as a prediction of how people will draft or a depiction of the consensus or conventional wisdom.

 

[Chessmaster]

As for Pearman, he lost touches to Wali Lundy. Lundy has been productive, but I'll be very surprised if he's a first day pick next year.

Not to deviate from the topic too much, but Wali Lundy was my roomate in college. I think he is MUCH better than pearman, having watched them both over the past few years. Faster, stronger, bigger. If Pearman is a 4th round pick (which is debateable) then Lundy should be a late second/early third at the minimum. Bottom line though, I think you can credit alot of their stats to the Virginia o-line.

 

[Finatic]

Somehow I see this thread getting bumped in 6 months or so.........

oh man, im sure that im wrong on at least half of these guys. I dont mind sticking my neck on these predictions because everyone who talks to me has probably already made up their mind that i am coming from a valid place, or are full of it (the truth lies in between )I just love starting the discussion - that was why i wanted to get my rankings out right away - obviously no one should take my rankings as a prediction of how people will draft or a depiction of the consensus or conventional wisdom.

Bloom,No disrespect was intended as I know you have put forth alot of effort into this thread.I have looked over it a gazillon times myself when drafting the past two months.We all have our own ideas and feelings on certain players.I'm sure I'm just one of many who have really gotten alot out of this thread the past two months

 

[Weiner Dog]

If 4th round RBs are so worthless, why arent y'all complaining about my rankings of barber and fason?

I personally would not draft Barber or Fason above the likes of Heath Miller, Roddy White, Matt Jones, Thomas Davis, Derrick Johnson, and Odell Thurman...but judging from your reply in the IDP section (ie. top IDPs score significantly less than top offensive players) your league's scoring system heavily weighs the offensive scoring over the defensive scoring. My league "only" has a 10-25% discount in scoring from offense to defense.I will say this...

Different RB's will have different values for different owners. For example...if Julius Jones and Mewelde Moore were my two dynasty-league RB's, I would be more inclined to pursue Barber and Fason, respectively. A-Train and Michael Bennett are only signed through the '05 season, and adding both Barber and Fason would/should lock-down the DAL and MIN runningback situation for the foreseeable future.

 

[EBF]

If 4th round RBs are so worthless, why arent y'all complaining about my rankings of barber and fason?

Pearman isn't in my top 30. Barber isn't in my top 20. Fason is barely in my top 15. That said, I think there's greater reason for optimism regarding Fason and Barber. For one thing, they each seemed to carry higher grades than Pearman. Pre-draft hype is only so accurate, but no one would've been surprised to see Fason or Barber taken in the second round. They seem to fit the Lee Suggs/Onterrio Smith mold of talented RBs who slipped. They were each underclassmen and they could've easily gone higher with another year in school.

As for Pearman, I think the fourth round was his ceiling. This is a matter of personal opinion to some degree, but that's what this hobby is all about. Chris Henry (a third round pick) is the #7 player in my rookie rankings. I'd take him over Roddy White (a first round pick). That's because I see something in Henry that leads me to believe that his talent is significantly greater than his draft spot would indicate. I just don't see that with Pearman. He seems entirely mediocre. I think people who draft him are doing so because he's a RB with a pulse and he's on a team with a cloudy RB situation. I think these people are much more likely to end up with the next Artose Pinner than the next Rudi Johnson.

One of the things dynasty owners need to pound into their heads is that mediocre talents just don't last. Sure, Pearman may have a chance at the starting role right now, but things change quickly in the NFL. If Pearman performs unspectacularly then there's nothing stopping the Jaguars from taking Laurence Maroney or DeAngelo Williams in the draft next year. These things happen all the time. That's why it's foolish to bank on a dime a dozen player.

Now maybe you think Pearman isn't a dime a dozen player, but I think there are 7-8 backs with at least as much talent as him who enter the league each year. There are 32 teams in the NFL. Do the math.

On a side note, even the two most successful fourth round RBs of late (Rudi Johnson and Domanick Davis) have faced challenges to their job. The Texans just took Vernand Morency in the third round. By this time next year he could be their starter (I don't think it will happen, but it's possible). The Bengals took Chris Perry last year. If they had done the smart thing and taken Kevin Jones then we might not be pointing to Rudi Johnson as an example of a fourth round success.

Anyhow, my point (again) is that you have to be careful in rookie drafts. You should try to find the guys with the best chance of developing into impact players. If you consistently pass up 1st and 2nd round talents for 4th rounders then you're probably not going to be very successful in the long run (unless your talent evaluation skills are superb).

 

[Streetduck]

Everett being hurt, would you change where you rank him or are you guys considerring him like Winslow last year. Take him and hold him.

Any thoughts on Ben Watson, essentially a rookie?

I drafted Everett in the last round of my rookie draft and will stash him on my developmental squad.

 

[-OZ-]

If 4th round RBs are so worthless, why arent y'all complaining about my rankings of barber and fason?

Pearman isn't in my top 30. Barber isn't in my top 20. Fason is barely in my top 15. That said, I think there's greater reason for optimism regarding Fason and Barber. For one thing, they each seemed to carry higher grades than Pearman. Pre-draft hype is only so accurate, but no one would've been surprised to see Fason or Barber taken in the second round. They seem to fit the Lee Suggs/Onterrio Smith mold of talented RBs who slipped. They were each underclassmen and they could've easily gone higher with another year in school.

As for Pearman, I think the fourth round was his ceiling. This is a matter of personal opinion to some degree, but that's what this hobby is all about. Chris Henry (a third round pick) is the #7 player in my rookie rankings. I'd take him over Roddy White (a first round pick). That's because I see something in Henry that leads me to believe that his talent is significantly greater than his draft spot would indicate. I just don't see that with Pearman. He seems entirely mediocre. I think people who draft him are doing so because he's a RB with a pulse and he's on a team with a cloudy RB situation. I think these people are much more likely to end up with the next Artose Pinner than the next Rudi Johnson.

One of the things dynasty owners need to pound into their heads is that mediocre talents just don't last. Sure, Pearman may have a chance at the starting role right now, but things change quickly in the NFL. If Pearman performs unspectacularly then there's nothing stopping the Jaguars from taking Laurence Maroney or DeAngelo Williams in the draft next year. These things happen all the time. That's why it's foolish to bank on a dime a dozen player.

Now maybe you think Pearman isn't a dime a dozen player, but I think there are 7-8 backs with at least as much talent as him who enter the league each year. There are 32 teams in the NFL. Do the math.

On a side note, even the two most successful fourth round RBs of late (Rudi Johnson and Domanick Davis) have faced challenges to their job. The Texans just took Vernand Morency in the third round. By this time next year he could be their starter (I don't think it will happen, but it's possible). The Bengals took Chris Perry last year. If they had done the smart thing and taken Kevin Jones then we might not be pointing to Rudi Johnson as an example of a fourth round success.

Anyhow, my point (again) is that you have to be careful in rookie drafts. You should try to find the guys with the best chance of developing into impact players. If you consistently pass up 1st and 2nd round talents for 4th rounders then you're probably not going to be very successful in the long run (unless your talent evaluation skills are superb).

Good points in a well written post.I'm not advocating reaching for Pearman above some of the other top talents, but unless he's flying up the boards now, he can be had for good value.

In my leagues that have conducted the rookie draft, Pearman consistently goes in the 4th round or later, I just took him with pick #89 (8.05) in one league, behind studs like Aaron Stecker (it's a 15 player keeper league). In a new 20 team dynasty league I took him at pick #312 (16.12). IMO these were very good values.

I don't see a lot of difference in talent between him and Dom Davis or Moore, Dom obviously has surpassed expectations, Pearman should get the opportunity to do the same if Taylor can't go. Even if he is healthy, Pearman will be used some in 3rd down situations.

 

[Rovers]

Even given Bloom's anti-IDP philosophy, there is still one player who MUST be in the top 100. Kerry Rhodes, NYJ. Looks like he'll be the starting safety THIS year. The Jets use the SS and FS interchangably, so it looks like Coleman and Rhodes will be the starting Jets' safeties. I got him post draft for $1. He is off the radar in most leagues, as he was here.

 

[Bloom]

Even given Bloom's anti-IDP philosophy, there is still one player who MUST be in the top 100. Kerry Rhodes, NYJ. Looks like he'll be the starting safety THIS year. The Jets use the SS and FS interchangably, so it looks like Coleman and Rhodes will be the starting Jets' safeties. I got him post draft for $1. He is off the radar in most leagues, as he was here.

what about mcgraw? If I see that rhodes, and not mcgraw is taking snaps with the first team in camp, rhodes will enter the top 100 with a bullet... I also want to see what role andre maddox plays - I agree that Rhodes is worth a look.here's the other guys i mention a few posts up as candidates to move into the top 100:

boomer grigsby, nick speegle, matt mccoy, michael boley, marvel underwood, jerome carter, gerald sensabaugh, james sanders, andre maddox, johnathan babineaux, mike patterson, shaun cody, and bryant mcfadden.

 

[Rovers]

Even given Bloom's anti-IDP philosophy, there is still one player who MUST be in the top 100. Kerry Rhodes, NYJ. Looks like he'll be the starting safety THIS year. The Jets use the SS and FS interchangably, so it looks like Coleman and Rhodes will be the starting Jets' safeties. I got him post draft for $1. He is off the radar in most leagues, as he was here.

Bloom, I started a thread in the IDP forum on the Jets saftey situation, so I wont repeat it here. In short, due to McGraw's injury history, it appears they will continue to use him situationally, as they did towards the end of last year, when they had the statue Reggie Tongue starting at SS. Maddox has been slower to pick up the cover 2 apparently. Coleman will play SS but the Jets (OC Donnie Henderson) likes to use the FS and SS interchangably, based on the expected O play call. Again, see the IDP forum, but it does look now like Rhodes will be a starting safety this year. what about mcgraw? If I see that rhodes, and not mcgraw is taking snaps with the first team in camp, rhodes will enter the top 100 with a bullet... I also want to see what role andre maddox plays - I agree that Rhodes is worth a look.

here's the other guys i mention a few posts up as candidates to move into the top 100:

boomer grigsby, nick speegle, matt mccoy, michael boley, marvel underwood, jerome carter, gerald sensabaugh, james sanders, andre maddox, johnathan babineaux, mike patterson, shaun cody, and bryant mcfadden.

 

[Rovers]

I somehow screwed that post up, my reply is buried in the quote..... :11:

 

[Finatic]

Even given Bloom's anti-IDP philosophy, there is still one player who MUST be in the top 100. Kerry Rhodes, NYJ. Looks like he'll be the starting safety THIS year. The Jets use the SS and FS interchangably, so it looks like Coleman and Rhodes will be the starting Jets' safeties. I got him post draft for $1. He is off the radar in most leagues, as he was here.

Rovers,I have been reading your thread in the IDP section and currently have a bid in on Rhodes.Thanks for the insight on this one.

 

[jgb95]

Is this still being updated?

 

[diesel7982]

53. Brandon Jones The last of the trio of titan rooks, and probably the one with the least upside. Also the third of the trio of oklahoma WRs, and clearly the least talented. Still he has a good frame and knows how to use it, Jones is also a physical WR who will help with his blocking and special teams play. Should be interesting to see if competition helps the titans rooks raise their level of play. The Latest: Jones has been the most impressive of the 3 titans rook WRs. Calico's knee is still a little dicey, so Jones could see a lot of action with the first team in training camp._________________________Way, Way too low. But overall, the writeup is fantastic.

 

[Bloom]

53. Brandon Jones

The last of the trio of titan rooks, and probably the one with the least upside. Also the third of the trio of oklahoma WRs, and clearly the least talented. Still he has a good frame and knows how to use it, Jones is also a physical WR who will help with his blocking and special teams play. Should be interesting to see if competition helps the titans rooks raise their level of play.

The Latest: Jones has been the most impressive of the 3 titans rook WRs. Calico's knee is still a little dicey, so Jones could see a lot of action with the first team in training camp.

_________________________

Way, Way too low.

But overall, the writeup is fantastic.

Jones is definitely on the way up with a bullet. Ill be taking some time to absorb the last few weeks news on the rooks and adjust where appropriate.

 

[Bloom]

bump for updates, ranking changes.

 

[Barry Jive and The Uptown Five]

19. Roddy White UP

see Williamson, except Vick does not throw a great deep ball. I dont see this as a good fit at all, and i expect White to be a first round WR bust - but his talent is still worth a pick in the late 2nd/early 3rd. UPDATE: Price may be leaving atlanta sooner than later, and the news out of minicamp on white is good. Stay tuned.

The latest: White impresses more and more by the day and could be starting. Still see limited upside with Vick at QB for a deep threat.

Here's a little blurb I found in Pete Prisco's column from JUL 8th

The Falcons have decided to keep Peerless Price and give him a chance to redeem himself for two lackluster seasons since they traded a first-round pick to get him two years ago. But there are some inside the Falcons building who think Price has been open more than his numbers indicate. That means Michael Vick hasn't used him enough. The feeling is that Vick doesn't look to the receivers enough and instead uses tight end Alge Crumpler as his security blanket too much. That was something Price said to me late last season, although he didn't quite come out and blame Vick. Instead, he told me to watch the tapes. Word is those tapes show Price open. So why not give him another shot?

The Falcons also have Michael Jenkins, a 2003 first-round pick, and Roddy White, a 2004 first-round pick, in the mix at receiver to go with Brian Finneran and Dez White. The word is that Roddy White didn't show as well as the Falcons say he did during the team's offseason work. In fact, some said he came across as a cocky player who needed to be taken down a peg. So don't be surprised when the smoke clears if Price is again one of the team's starting receivers. Maybe he'll finally get some use.

I went back and looked at the Rookie WR Thread - Pre-Draft to see where you had him ranked. Back then you had him as the #10 WR.

Current Rank is #6 WR, #19 overall.

I bet when all is said & done, your pre-draft grade might be closer to the truth.

You know me, I'm not baggin' the rankings at all. I just read that piece and was trying to find a good place to work it in to a thread. And since is the best thread going on the rooks......

EDIT TO ADD 1 suggeestion:

maybe add a "LAST UPDATE: DATE" line to the top of the Initial Post... and maybe a (DATE) for the future "THE LATEST" updates on the players. just a humble suggestion for an already great thread...

 

[Bloom]

thanks for the suggestions.my gut tells me that white will be a bust. but the fact that he has a shot to leapfrog price right away is pretty big and adds a premium because he at least has a shot of helping right away, as opposed to guys like jackson, henry, bradley, and jones - who will have to wait. my long term outlook hasnt changed much on white, but i think he moves to the top of 2nd because he gets his opportunity right away. For me, the possibility that white starts is as much about price as it is about white - i just dont have faith in price.

 

[Bloom]

bump for shelton and few other adjustments.

 

[FunkyPlutos]

Excellent work Bloom!!! Thanks!

 

[Finatic]

Bloom,Will you be updating this thread thru training camps......

 

[Bloom]

Bloom,Will you be updating this thread thru training camps......

i plan on updating it right up to the first game.

 

[Finatic]

Bloom,Will you be updating this thread thru training camps......

i plan on updating it right up to the first game.

It will be interesting to see the fluctuation in your rankings once camps start winding down.Makes it easier if you are tracking a specific player or players..Once again thanx for your efforts on this

 

[Bloom]

Bloom,Will you be updating this thread thru training camps......

i plan on updating it right up to the first game.

It will be interesting to see the fluctuation in your rankings once camps start winding down.Makes it easier if you are tracking a specific player or players..Once again thanx for your efforts on this

i am a big believer in the idea that a players whole career can hinge on that first few months of development - opportunities open and close, they get branded with labels and lose labels that they earned (or didnt earn) in college, and they also show whether they are the type to "get it" or not. a lot of guys got by on pure ability in college and are getting their first exposure to top notch coaching (in most NFL organizations at least) - many players take the next step or hit the wall in that first camp, often a harbinger of whats to come. thats why i am so aggressive with upping rankings of guys like brandon jones - the fact that he's impressed so many (if you believe the hype) so early bodes well for his long term development imo.there will be a lot of fluctuation - im sure others would probably be less inclined than i would to change rankings - take that into account along with my minimal IDP strategy when checking out my rankings.

 

[Tick]

Bloom,Will you be updating this thread thru training camps......

i plan on updating it right up to the first game.

It will be interesting to see the fluctuation in your rankings once camps start winding down.Makes it easier if you are tracking a specific player or players..Once again thanx for your efforts on this

i am a big believer in the idea that a players whole career can hinge on that first few months of development - opportunities open and close, they get branded with labels and lose labels that they earned (or didnt earn) in college, and they also show whether they are the type to "get it" or not. a lot of guys got by on pure ability in college and are getting their first exposure to top notch coaching (in most NFL organizations at least) - many players take the next step or hit the wall in that first camp, often a harbinger of whats to come. thats why i am so aggressive with upping rankings of guys like brandon jones - the fact that he's impressed so many (if you believe the hype) so early bodes well for his long term development imo.there will be a lot of fluctuation - im sure others would probably be less inclined than i would to change rankings - take that into account along with my minimal IDP strategy when checking out my rankings.

I would think this is far more true of RBs than of the other positions.

 

[ILoveMyLions]

Bloom,Will you be updating this thread thru training camps......

i plan on updating it right up to the first game.

It will be interesting to see the fluctuation in your rankings once camps start winding down.Makes it easier if you are tracking a specific player or players..Once again thanx for your efforts on this

i am a big believer in the idea that a players whole career can hinge on that first few months of development - opportunities open and close, they get branded with labels and lose labels that they earned (or didnt earn) in college, and they also show whether they are the type to "get it" or not. a lot of guys got by on pure ability in college and are getting their first exposure to top notch coaching (in most NFL organizations at least) - many players take the next step or hit the wall in that first camp, often a harbinger of whats to come. thats why i am so aggressive with upping rankings of guys like brandon jones - the fact that he's impressed so many (if you believe the hype) so early bodes well for his long term development imo.there will be a lot of fluctuation - im sure others would probably be less inclined than i would to change rankings - take that into account along with my minimal IDP strategy when checking out my rankings.

Great point you make about development. I'm looking forward to your updates...

 

[Bloom]

bump.justin miller and deandra cobb replace TA mcclendon and walter reyes in the top 100.in case youre wondering, grigsby, claridge, and rhodes would be 101,102, and 103.LOTS of movement will happen in the next month. stay tuned.also, i welcome any criticism of my rankings, the main purpose of this is not to have the last word, but to encourage discussion, so fire away. you might even convince me to change a ranking.

 

[EBF]

The more I think about it, the more I like Matt Jones. I just have a hunch that he's going to develop into an impact player. I think he's a top 10 rookie draft pick because he's such a freak and that's what it takes to be an elite player in the NFL. I'd definitely take him over Mark Clayton, who doesn't fit the mold of an impact NFL WR. I like Clayton's skills, but I don't see him as a big stats guy at this level. Frank Gore isn't even in my top 20. I have no faith in San Francisco's front office and no faith in Gore. He was unspectacular last year and he didn't show well for himself in workouts. There's some opportunity for him in SF, but I can't see him beating out a motivated Barlow and I can't see him producing good stats even if he does become the starter. This team is horrible with no hope in sight. That brings me to Alex Smith. I don't like him. If you look at guys like McNabb, Culpepper, and Manning then you should notice that they all have very good arm strength. Occasionally a fantasy QB with a mediocre arm can put up great numbers, but the odds are against Smith. QBs are risky and Smith doesn't seem like a strong enough prospect to take in the top 15 of a rookie draft. I'd opt for Chris Henry over Reggie Brown. Brown is a decent player, but he looks like a career #2. I think Henry is a better bet to eventually become a true #1 WR in the NFL (though it may not be in Cincy). I would never consider Pearman over Bradley, Henry, Roby, Rodgers, and a bunch of other guys you have behind him. Pearman is completely mediocre with no chance of ever becoming a consistent starter in the NFL. Speaking of Rodgers, he's too low at #28. The early reports have been mixed, but he's a first round pick in an ideal situation. He certainly deserves a top 15-20 ranking. I think Clarett is too low. I have my concerns about him, but given his play in college and his team, I think he has to be a top 20 pick. I think Roby should be quite a bit higher. Put him on Oklahoma's team and he might have been drafted where Clayton was. They're similar players with similar skills. I would never take Mathis over Murphy.

 

[ILoveMyLions]

The more I think about it, the more I like Matt Jones. I just have a hunch that he's going to develop into an impact player. I think he's a top 10 rookie draft pick because he's such a freak and that's what it takes to be an elite player in the NFL. I'd definitely take him over Mark Clayton, who doesn't fit the mold of an impact NFL WR. I like Clayton's skills, but I don't see him as a big stats guy at this level.

As I've been getting my list together the last week, I have come to the same conclusion. I think that Jones is a freak physically and in three years could be a top ten dynasty WR. If he can learn the route running, he will excel in this league. He has from all reports great hands and seems to be impressing the Jacksonville staff right away. We know he has great speed (4.37 40), is tall (6'6") and big (242). We also know he can run after the catch after seeing him run at QB the last few years. Finally, he has a good young QB there with him to mature with. He is moving up my board fast; I just hope he's not moving up others as well. The route running is the key, if he works hard, it is something that can be learned.

 

[Bloom]

The more I think about it, the more I like Matt Jones. I just have a hunch that he's going to develop into an impact player. I think he's a top 10 rookie draft pick because he's such a freak and that's what it takes to be an elite player in the NFL. I'd definitely take him over Mark Clayton, who doesn't fit the mold of an impact NFL WR. I like Clayton's skills, but I don't see him as a big stats guy at this level.

As I've been getting my list together the last week, I have come to the same conclusion. I think that Jones is a freak physically and in three years could be a top ten dynasty WR. If he can learn the route running, he will excel in this league. He has from all reports great hands and seems to be impressing the Jacksonville staff right away. We know he has great speed (4.37 40), is tall (6'6") and big (242). We also know he can run after the catch after seeing him run at QB the last few years. Finally, he has a good young QB there with him to mature with. He is moving up my board fast; I just hope he's not moving up others as well. The route running is the key, if he works hard, it is something that can be learned.

jones got off on the wrong foot in my rankings as i was skeptical about him and he pulled a hammy right away - as long he gets through a few weeks of camp without aggravating the injury, he'll climb.

 

[EBF]

The more I think about it, the more I like Matt Jones. I just have a hunch that he's going to develop into an impact player. I think he's a top 10 rookie draft pick because he's such a freak and that's what it takes to be an elite player in the NFL. I'd definitely take him over Mark Clayton, who doesn't fit the mold of an impact NFL WR. I like Clayton's skills, but I don't see him as a big stats guy at this level.

As I've been getting my list together the last week, I have come to the same conclusion. I think that Jones is a freak physically and in three years could be a top ten dynasty WR. If he can learn the route running, he will excel in this league. He has from all reports great hands and seems to be impressing the Jacksonville staff right away. We know he has great speed (4.37 40), is tall (6'6") and big (242). We also know he can run after the catch after seeing him run at QB the last few years. Finally, he has a good young QB there with him to mature with. He is moving up my board fast; I just hope he's not moving up others as well. The route running is the key, if he works hard, it is something that can be learned.

Yea. No one will be able to cover him on fades and streaks. If he can develop as a decent short-intermediate target then he'll be pretty tough.

 

[Bloom]

The more I think about it, the more I like Matt Jones. I just have a hunch that he's going to develop into an impact player. I think he's a top 10 rookie draft pick because he's such a freak and that's what it takes to be an elite player in the NFL. I'd definitely take him over Mark Clayton, who doesn't fit the mold of an impact NFL WR. I like Clayton's skills, but I don't see him as a big stats guy at this level.

Frank Gore isn't even in my top 20. I have no faith in San Francisco's front office and no faith in Gore. He was unspectacular last year and he didn't show well for himself in workouts. There's some opportunity for him in SF, but I can't see him beating out a motivated Barlow and I can't see him producing good stats even if he does become the starter. This team is horrible with no hope in sight.

That brings me to Alex Smith. I don't like him. If you look at guys like McNabb, Culpepper, and Manning then you should notice that they all have very good arm strength. Occasionally a fantasy QB with a mediocre arm can put up great numbers, but the odds are against Smith. QBs are risky and Smith doesn't seem like a strong enough prospect to take in the top 15 of a rookie draft.

I'd opt for Chris Henry over Reggie Brown. Brown is a decent player, but he looks like a career #2. I think Henry is a better bet to eventually become a true #1 WR in the NFL (though it may not be in Cincy).

I would never consider Pearman over Bradley, Henry, Roby, Rodgers, and a bunch of other guys you have behind him. Pearman is completely mediocre with no chance of ever becoming a consistent starter in the NFL.

Speaking of Rodgers, he's too low at #28. The early reports have been mixed, but he's a first round pick in an ideal situation. He certainly deserves a top 15-20 ranking.

I think Clarett is too low. I have my concerns about him, but given his play in college and his team, I think he has to be a top 20 pick.

I think Roby should be quite a bit higher. Put him on Oklahoma's team and he might have been drafted where Clayton was. They're similar players with similar skills.

I would never take Mathis over Murphy.

i cant ignore how highly gore was rated coming into miami - if he hits, he could hit HUGE. your doubts are well-founded and gore is definitely a boom/bust pick.the main argument for smith succeeding is jeff garcia - very similar QB, and I think smith has a more ideal frame for an NFL than garcia.

im starting to drink the henry kool-aid. that being said, im real high on brown, he's solid, and if TO leaves philly, he could be in line to be the #1 or #2 target for mcnabb.

the pearman debate is well documented on this board. itll be a fun one to watch pan out. sometimes you have to take chances at RB to make a leap forward in dynasty and pearman's ranking reflects that (barber, morency, moats, and fason too)

after thinking it over, i decided that rodgers is not that much more talented than frye or campbell, or more likely to succeed. theyre all about the same to me until i start hearing reports out of camp to separate them.

clarett i am just not sold on. i see him 4th in the pecking order once griffin is full speed. of course, droughns was probably 4th last year too.

i like roby and he could move up, but i am about as high on clayton as anyone youll find - i think there's a lot more separating them than the college they went to.

 

[EBF]

i cant ignore how highly gore was rated coming into miami - if he hits, he could hit HUGE. your doubts are well-founded and gore is definitely a boom/bust pick.

Well hey, Roscoe Crosby was even more highly-rated as a high school prospect. That doesn't mean he's one of the best WR prospects in this draft. It's easy to understand why people are high on Gore. They remember his early days at Miami and they think he's on par with guys like Portis and McGahee. I think they're terribly mistaken. Gore was always overrated and his physical talents don't stack up with those of his successful Miami teammates. I think he was a major reach by the Niners and I think people expecting the next great Hurricane RB are in for disappointment.

the main argument for smith succeeding is jeff garcia - very similar QB' date=' and I think smith has a more ideal frame for an NFL than garcia.[/quote']I'd contend that Garcia's success was largely due to Owens. The 49ers don't have a TO on their team and there's no reason to expect them to get one. If I use a high pick on a player in a rookie draft then I want someone who can excel in any situation. While I can envision Smith becoming a Gannon or Garcia type, that's going to take a lot of help. Considering the risk involved with any rookie QB and Smith's lack of ideal NFL skills, I just can't justify using an early pick on him.

im starting to drink the henry kool-aid. that being said' date=' im real high on brown, he's solid, and if TO leaves philly, he could be in line to be the #1 or #2 target for mcnabb.[/quote']Reggie Brown just seems like a career #2 to me. Even if he does get a chance to become a lead target, I don't think he has the skills needed to excel. I like him, but I rank him below a handful of WRs who you have behind him.

the pearman debate is well documented on this board. itll be a fun one to watch pan out. sometimes you have to take chances at RB to make a leap forward in dynasty and pearman's ranking reflects that (barber, morency, moats, and fason too)

I'm all for taking a chance, but I'll maintain that there's nothing about Pearman which suggests he has the talent to be a lead back in the NFL. This isn't the ACC. He's not going to be running against teenagers. He'll be out there with Arrington, Lewis, Vilma, and monsters like that. It takes a special animal to excel i nthat environment. I don't like Alvin's chances.

after thinking it over, i decided that rodgers is not that much more talented than frye or campbell, or more likely to succeed. theyre all about the same to me until i start hearing reports out of camp to separate them.

I guess I can respect that, but I think he's rated pretty low for a first round QB who should be starting soon and who has the benefit of sitting and learning. Frye carried much lower pre-draft grades than Rodgers. Campbell was a late-riser who will probably be thrown into the fire. Unless he's Ben Roethlisberger, that's probably not a good thing.

clarett i am just not sold on. i see him 4th in the pecking order once griffin is full speed. of course, droughns was probably 4th last year too.

You seem to like Pearman. Clarett was a better player in college, was a higher pick in the draft, and is on a team without a proven starter. I think he belongs quite a bit higher than where you have him.

i like roby and he could move up, but i am about as high on clayton as anyone youll find - i think there's a lot more separating them than the college they went to.

I don't think so. They're very similar in size. Roby is actually quite a bit faster. Indiana is where good football players go to die. Put Roby in the pass-happy Sooner offense and you would've seen some fireworks.

 

[ILoveMyLions]

I think the comparison of Alex Smith to Rich Gannon is a pretty good one in certain regards. He seems to have better people skills than Gannon, but I hope he has his work ethic and competiveness.I am high on Smith as I think his creativity, decision-making, smarts, accuracy and running ability separate him from a lot of QBs. Arm strength can be improved somewhat although I agree that he will never be elite in this area. I see him as a top 15 dynasty QB in three years. I'm taking him in my draft and happy about it.

 

[FunkyPlutos]

bump.

justin miller and deandra cobb replace TA mcclendon and walter reyes in the top 100.

in case youre wondering, grigsby, claridge, and rhodes would be 101,102, and 103.

LOTS of movement will happen in the next month. stay tuned.

also, i welcome any criticism of my rankings, the main purpose of this is not to have the last word, but to encourage discussion, so fire away. you might even convince me to change a ranking.

This is the main reason I LOVE this footballguys board. I visit others and the main objective is to knock people down. Discussion is what helps foster knowledge and this board has it. Thank you Bloom for putting it so perfectly!!

 

[CravenM]

The more I think about it, the more I like Matt Jones. I just have a hunch that he's going to develop into an impact player. I think he's a top 10 rookie draft pick because he's such a freak and that's what it takes to be an elite player in the NFL.

This is what I'm thinking also.I watched the Jax offense last year and it didn't really resemble the West Coast Offense I remember Steve Young running.The RB work was split up a bunch; the WR work seemed pretty conventional with very few long plays. And they struggled in the red zone. (nota bene: this is purely from memory and could be completely wrong).I think Matt Jones could turn out to be regarded as Randy Moss is/was: someone who can't be covered conventionally and can basically do anything he wants to in the endzone.I can see Matt Jones lined up now at the 10 yard line looking across at a 5'10" DB licking his chops for a fade route, alley-ooop style TD grab. The dude's going to have a big body to push him out of the way and 2 feet more reach.

 

[Faust]

 

[Bloom]

top 36 updated. will get to the rest when i can. expect rolling updates throughout camp.

 

[Spike]

Looks good Bloom!

 

[Bloom]

cody and pac man out of the 100. claridge and dreessen in.

 

[Bloom]

chad owens and jerome carter make their debuts in the top 100. lots of movement in the 40s, 50s, and 60s.

 

[Barry Jive and The Uptown Five]

95. Jerome Carter

Hard-hitting SS prospect who is currently #1 on the depth chart. will move up a lot if he stays there.

VERY happy to see this...One thing last year taught me regarding rookie drafts and DBs is to look for the sleeper SSs who were drafted in the mid-rounds. Erik Coleman, Gibril Wilson, & 2nd(?) RDer Madieu Williams made me take a long hard look at the crop this year.

The guys that stood out were Carter & James Sanders. Carter due to the HUGE opening that was present in the Rams secondary. Sanders because of the HUGE potential he has as the SS behind an aging & ever-more pricey Rodney Harrison.

 

[Bloom]

95. Jerome Carter

Hard-hitting SS prospect who is currently #1 on the depth chart. will move up a lot if he stays there.

VERY happy to see this...One thing last year taught me regarding rookie drafts and DBs is to look for the sleeper SSs who were drafted in the mid-rounds. Erik Coleman, Gibril Wilson, & 2nd(?) RDer Madieu Williams made me take a long hard look at the crop this year.

The guys that stood out were Carter & James Sanders. Carter due to the HUGE opening that was present in the Rams secondary. Sanders because of the HUGE potential he has as the SS behind an aging & ever-more pricey Rodney Harrison.

the reason i am still cautious on carter is that the rams will have to have at least one cover capable safety out there - and thats not archuleta's strong suit - while it is atogwe's. still you have to love hearing that carter is off to a fast start. he could end up in the 60s if the good news continues.sanders is a guy i will take a longer look at. i agree that harrison will leave a huge vacancy for IDP stats soon, but i think guss scott will also have something to say about who fills that spot.

edit to add: maddox is also an interesting hard hitting SS prospect in new york, but a lot of people like rhodes better. also sensabaugh in jax is interesting, but darius was just signed to an extension i believe.

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

top 36 updated. will get to the rest when i can. expect rolling updates throughout camp.

sorry that i am missing something that is probably obvious - but where is this top 36 list?thanks!

 

[Hear-the-Footsteps]

top 36 updated. will get to the rest when i can. expect rolling updates throughout camp.

sorry that i am missing something that is probably obvious - but where is this top 36 list?thanks!

is it just the very first post on the first page - and he keeps updating/revising it?