Pwingles
Footballguy
But bro, his vision is so superior to gurleys, he can see canton 15 years into the future
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
[Dynasty] Todd Gurley (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter tdmills
- Start date
AngryPatriot
Footballguy
it needs to be said...... lol
I drafted Gurley: CHAMPIONSHIP!!!!
I drafted Gurley: CHAMPIONSHIP!!!!
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
The non-bolded part is an "unpopular" opinion but has plausibility and is a defensible position to take (ETA: perhaps putting him in the Hall of Fame is a bit of a stretch
). The bolded section isn't so much "unpopular" as it's "inflammatory", "far fetched" and/or downright "ludicrous".
Last edited by a moderator:
I will say this about Gurley.
We don't even know what he is right now, and that uncertainty is a valid concern.
We know he balled out in the SEC, guess what, Nick Chubb was even better than he was, and we've seen plenty of other backs perform well in the SEC and fail in the NFL.
We haven't seen him run and cut yet after his injury.
We don't even know what kind of speed he actually has, or had, because we don't have recorded times to compare him against other players in a controlled environment (i.e. combine, pro day, etc).
On tape, he kind of looks the part.. on tape though I've also noticed he's had holes that you could drive a truck through. (An argument at times used against Gordon)
I'm pretty certain he isn't the prospect that Adrian Peterson was coming out of college.
We don't even know what he is right now, and that uncertainty is a valid concern.
We know he balled out in the SEC, guess what, Nick Chubb was even better than he was, and we've seen plenty of other backs perform well in the SEC and fail in the NFL.
We haven't seen him run and cut yet after his injury.
We don't even know what kind of speed he actually has, or had, because we don't have recorded times to compare him against other players in a controlled environment (i.e. combine, pro day, etc).
On tape, he kind of looks the part.. on tape though I've also noticed he's had holes that you could drive a truck through. (An argument at times used against Gordon)
I'm pretty certain he isn't the prospect that Adrian Peterson was coming out of college.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
No, he's not. Agreed. But there's still plenty of room to be a fantastic NFL and FF RB well below Peterson, Barry Sanders, insert best prospect ever here.
georg013
Footballguy
Is Eddie Lacy Adrian Peterson? Lesean McCoy? Leveon Bell? Should we not take them since they aren't "Adrian Peterson"? Maybe I should wait for Adrian Peterson's son to turn pro before I draft another back. I may be waiting a while though...
Xue
Footballguy
werdnoynek
Footballguy
I'm not sure Gordon is as strong or fast, but other than that they are exactly alike.
Pwingles
Footballguy
Both RBs, african american, dreads, college color was red, theyre basically the same guy... Except one is better at footballI'm not sure Gordon is as strong or fast, but other than that they are exactly alike.
The difference between Eddie Lacy, LeSean McCoy, Leveon Bell, was that the cost for them their rookie year, and the expectations they had coming out, were not even close to what Todd's going for, and they didn't have the hype and expections that Todd Gurley's coming into the league with.georg013 said:
We've got guys putting Todd Gurley as high as #2 in their RB Dynasty Rankings and some arguing he should be #1. That's not just rookie rankings but all RB's.
I'm seriously considering making a play for the top overall pick, I'm just curious if the cost to obtain that pick is worth it considering the question marks that he has.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Does it matter?
If he's the next Eddie Lacy, LeSean McCoy, or Le'Veon Bell isn't he worth the price he's currently going for? If I told you that you could wind back the clock on those three guys and make them 20 years old again, wouldn't you pay the price that Gurley is going for?
But as of right now, there are some people that wouldn't trade gurley for Bell straight up.
Or they are putting a price on Gurley, equivalent to a top 3 back.
We don't know if Gurley is going to come out and be Lacy, McCoy or Bell, it's not guaranteed.. but the price for him is as if he's already achieved that level of play.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Not necessarily. Gurley is only 20, so he also has a longer useful life than the others.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Cursory glance all that is needed to tell me I still don't agree.Never said they were alike. Read the post I quoted very carefully, then read my post again very carefully.Bob Magaw said:I'm not sure Gordon is as strong or fast, but other than that they are exactly alike.Xue said:
How is he a comparable prospect to Peterson COMING OUT OF COLLEGE if he is weaker and slower?
Where would Gurley have gone with no torn ACL? Than where would Gordon have gone with a torn ACL?
Read that post very carefully. Than read it again very carefully.
Last edited by a moderator:
Xue
Footballguy
Being as fast or as strong as Peterson makes them Peterson? You're just arguing with yourself. The only way Gordon is comparable to Peterson is if he's the same? Gurley is nothing like Peterson, yet he is compared to Peterson. How do you reconcile that? Same with Leonard Fournette and TJ Yeldon.Cursory glance all that is needed to tell me I still don't agree.Never said they were alike. Read the post I quoted very carefully, then read my post again very carefully.Bob Magaw said:I'm not sure Gordon is as strong or fast, but other than that they are exactly alike.Xue said:
How is he a comparable prospect to Peterson COMING OUT OF COLLEGE if he is weaker and slower?
Where would Gurley have gone with no torn ACL? Than where would Gordon have gone with a torn ACL?
Read that post very carefully. Than read it again very carefully.
Peterson never tore his ACL before the draft, so I'm not sure what those questions mean. But it's a nice deflection.
Adrian Peterson comparisons are the most overrated. Personally, Jonathan Stewart (and his clone, Nick Chubb will be) was a better prospect than Peterson. But of course we only remember the healthy guys. That Marshawn Lynch guy was a pretty good prospect, too.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
OK, sure, but that doesn't address the discussion you were having and that I was quoting, which is that he doesn't have to be Adrian Peterson to be worth his current price.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Being weaker and slower is a better way to show he is Peterson, than if there were more obvious parallels in power and speed? Implying that the only alternative to Peterson and Gordon being unrelated in important ways is the position that they must be identical is your straw man, not mine (you're just arguing with yourself). How is he like Peterson, as a prospect COMING OUT OF COLLEGE, despite being weaker and slower? If they are too different in critically important traits and attributes, than, yeah, that is the way it works, it doesn't make sense to invoke the comparison. Ron Dayne was once a good prospect. Was his speed like Peterson? It isn't the fact that they aren't identical that makes him a bad comparison, it is that they have little in common. Gandhi and Marty Feldman both had faces, but they had a lot more differences than similarities, THAT is what makes them a bad comparison.Being as fast or as strong as Peterson makes them Peterson? You're just arguing with yourself. The only way Gordon is comparable to Peterson is if he's the same? Gurley is nothing like Peterson, yet he is compared to Peterson. How do you reconcile that? Same with Leonard Fournette and TJ Yeldon.Cursory glance all that is needed to tell me I still don't agree.How is he a comparable prospect to Peterson COMING OUT OF COLLEGE if he is weaker and slower?Never said they were alike. Read the post I quoted very carefully, then read my post again very carefully.Bob Magaw said:I'm not sure Gordon is as strong or fast, but other than that they are exactly alike.Xue said:
Where would Gurley have gone with no torn ACL? Than where would Gordon have gone with a torn ACL?
Read that post very carefully. Than read it again very carefully.
Peterson never tore his ACL before the draft, so I'm not sure what those questions mean. But it's a nice deflection.
Adrian Peterson comparisons are the most overrated. Personally, Jonathan Stewart (and his clone, Nick Chubb will be) was a better prospect than Peterson. But of course we only remember the healthy guys. That Marshawn Lynch guy was a pretty good prospect, too.
Gurley is compared to Peterson, not because they have identical running styles, but because scouts think he has the most impressive combination of size, strength, balance, speed, vision, instincts and elusiveness SINCE Peterson. They aren't necessarily even saying he is AS GOOD, just the BEST SINCE, or ONE OF THE BEST SINCE. Gordon isn't even as good a prospect as Gurley, let alone Peterson, how do you reconcile that?
Gurley had a torn ACL. No deflection, clearly the point was, despite that, he still has superior pedigree to Gordon. He is a better prospect. More Peterson-like. Gordon is a worse prospect. Less Peterson-like. If Gordon had a torn ACL, and Gurley hadn't, in all likelihood, there would be even greater separation in their pedigree. Again, because he isn't as good a prospect.
If Peterson comps are overrated, why respond to a Gurley one with a Gordon one?
Anybody is free to make whatever comps they want. If they are well chosen and apt, they will probably be met with agreement. If ill chosen and heinous, than with skepticism. Someone can think that the early work of Barry Manilow was a neglected, secret, hidden precursor to Death Metal, but without some supporting reasons for an on the surface extremely improbable position, it probably won't be too popular or widely followed a view point.
Last edited by a moderator:
ghostguy123
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
Pretty much exactly what I was thinking. And yeah, nobody is "Comparing" Gurley to Peterson in any other way other than to say he's the best RB prospect since him.
cstu
Footballguy
Gurley and Gordon seem like great prospects but after reading this thread I decided to watch some highlights of Adrian Peterson at Oklahoma.
Then I remember why he was the greatest RB prospect I'd ever seen.
There's one guy in college football who I can talk in the same breath as Peterson about and his name is Nick Chubb.
Then I remember why he was the greatest RB prospect I'd ever seen.
There's one guy in college football who I can talk in the same breath as Peterson about and his name is Nick Chubb.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
mikmak8902
Footballguy
I'm not of the thinking that Gurley will be at AP's level. I do, however, agree that he's the best RB prospect SINCE Peterson. I can't think of another I've been so comfortable taking #1. The only thing that gives me pause is the possibility that he starts the season on the PuP.
With all that said, I don't think he's an absolute lock like AP was. I don't think there is a lock in this draft at any position.
With all that said, I don't think he's an absolute lock like AP was. I don't think there is a lock in this draft at any position.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
I'd put Gurley in the McGahee (pre-injury) / Bush / DMC / Stewart / Richardson tier as an elite prospect a step behind true generational talents like Sanders and Peterson.
mikmak8902
Footballguy
cstu
Footballguy
mikmak8902
Footballguy
I would ask for your analysis on Cooper but I don't want to hijack the thread. I'll look for your comments on any Cooper thread out there. I have the 1.1 in two different dynasty drafts and I'm torturing myself trying to decide between Cooper and Gurley. The reason I'm leaning to Gurley is because it's simply easier for a RB to become involved in the offense. They simply have to take a handoff and catch check downs. If they are talented enough, they will shine. With a WR, a great one can be buried in an awful situation with a bad (or very young) QB behind a terrible line and rarely see the ball. Sound anything like Oakland?
I'm not saying Cooper won't be better. I'm just saying that at this point, I'm thinking Gurley is the safer pick.
georg013
Footballguy
I do. He is only 6'1. He will never be elite.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
In PPR I take Cooper all day. Standard is a tougher call IMO.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
And ODB
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Yes IMO -- it's called shelf life. And in this case a serious knee injury is minor question mark that Cooper doesn't have. It's not a rip on Gurley, in my case anyway. He's elite -- I just prefer WRs as cornerstone players in PPR.
cstu
Footballguy
I'm only in 1 RB mandatory PPR leagues so I'm biased towards RB's to begin with (Gurley is actually going 1.1 despite this).mikmak8902 said:
I traded for the 1.1 and it's a tough decision so I did some comparison of the outcomes of RB's vs. WR's taken early in the draft.
Went back to 2000 and in order to get a roughly equal number of both I chose RB's taken in the top 10 (there were 11) and WR's taken in the top 6 (there were 10). Here's who they were (sorted by rushing or receiving yards):
RB - LT, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, ADP, Benson, Bush, R.Brown, McFadden, Cadillac, Spiller, Richardson
- Other than LT, Lewis, and ADP the rest didn't live up to expections. Jones and Benson eventually had some good seasons but were considered busts 4 years into their careers. Other than his rookie year in PPR leagues, Bush was considered a bust as well his first 5 years.
WR - AJ, Fitz, Calvin, Braylon, AJG, Julio, Peter Warrick, Blackmon, Watkins, Charles Rogers.
- The only WR's who failed to produce were Warrick (4.58 40) and Rogers (two broken collarbones and a weed problem). Blackmon is also a bust but performed at an elite level when he played.
georg013
Footballguy
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Peterson as a freshman was so much better than any RB in college football it was laughable. By far the best RB in the past 10-15 years.cstu said:
love Chubb, but don't think he's on Peterson's level at this point. He's very very good, but Peterson was a man among boys as a true freshman.
cstu
Footballguy
Chubb is very, very close in my mind. He did things last year that reminded me exactly of ADP.
These are the backs who ran for 1200+ yards in the SEC since 2000 with over 6 YPC, sorted by highest YPC:
Code:
Player Year School Att Yds Avg TD1 Nick Chubb 2014 Georgia 219 1547 7.1 142 Jeremy Hill 2013 LSU 189 1258 6.7 143 Knile Davis 2010 Arkansas 204 1322 6.5 134 Eddie Lacy 2012 Alabama 204 1322 6.5 175 Josh Robinson 2014 Miss. State 190 1203 6.3 116 Todd Gurley 2012 Georgia 222 1385 6.2 177 Mark Ingram 2009 Alabama 271 1658 6.1 178 T.J. Yeldon 2013 Alabama 207 1235 6.0 14FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Not to jump in the middle here, but if you're trying to pass off Braylon Edwards as an example of guys succeeding, then it's clear that you went into that study looking for a particular outcome.
This is doubly true when your reasoning for it is that he had value at one point after a good season when you refused to acknowledge the same for guys like McFadden, Spiller, Cadillac, and Richardson all of whom had even better value after some of their good seasons than Edwards ever did. Even Ronnie Brown was the #1 overall dynasty player for a while (I still remember seeing him traded straight up for LT) before his big injury.
Likewise, you explicitly exclude Bush for having only one good year early while explicitly including Edwards for doing the exact same (and at least Bush had some more good years later, which Edwards never did).
cstu
Footballguy
That's fair enough, let's put him in the bust category. Doing that gives us:
3/11 (27%) RB's who lived up to expectations (LT, Lewis, ADP)
6/10 (60%) WR's who lived up to expectations (AJ, Fitz, Calvin, AJG, Julio, Watkins*)
*Technically the jury is still out on Watkins but even leaving him out makes hitting on a WR almost twice as likely as RB.
Borden
Footballguy
I got some interesting numbers here. Fantasy Points per Game Played. Not started just played.Non-PRR, 10 yards per point. I used rushing + receiving ÷ games played.Then added the average TDs per game multiplied by 6.
The players I used were Tom Jones, Cadillac, Benson, Spiller, DMC, Bush and Andre Williams. Can you guess which player isn't the bust? Answers below.
10.81
10.46
10.35
9.42
9.38
9.20
8.07
***Bonus Player (not on the list) 16.70***
10.81 - Spiller
10.46 - Bush
10.35 - Andre
9.42 - DMC
9.38 - Thomas Jones
9.20 - Benson
8.07 - Cadillac
Bonus: 16.70 - AP
10.46 - Bush
10.35 - Andre
9.42 - DMC
9.38 - Thomas Jones
9.20 - Benson
8.07 - Cadillac
Bonus: 16.70 - AP
My point is that while some of these top backs will bust, it seems missed time/injuries play a major role. So, if you want to say WRs play longer and seem to get hurt less sure but just flat out talent busts aren't as much as you are implying.
Last edited by a moderator:
