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[Dynasty] Todd Gurley (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter tdmills
- Start date
Ned Ryerson
Footballguy
Is his line this terrible? All the scouts say he is amazing, perhaps the best prospect to come into the league since AP. I know YPC is not everything, but when you see supposedly lesser talents busting out consistent performances of 4.5 ypc and Gurley's in under 3 for the year, it is shocking.
You can't even blame the passing part of the offense, as Keenum has been reasonably productive moving the ball the last two weeks..
You can't even blame the passing part of the offense, as Keenum has been reasonably productive moving the ball the last two weeks..
dkp993
Footballguy
Yes, and he's facing 9 man boxes so there's not much of a chance for him. No one believes Keenum is even a meager threat so they are overstacking the line. Fortunately the past few games Case is making them pay a bit. Hopefully this forces teams to back off a little and it gives Gurley a chance. We'll see.
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
Todd Gurley rushing yards: 183
Le’Veon Bell rushing yards: 145
(please let this get better soon)
Le’Veon Bell rushing yards: 145
(please let this get better soon)
Sarlakticacid
Footballguy
The next 2 weeks get better righ?
tombonneau
Footballguy
I've been watching every game on rewind as I love Gurley and have him in RD and dynasty. And I honestly can't ever remember seeing such bad run blocking in my life. Not even joking at least 70-80% of carries he is either hit or has to make someone miss in the backfield. It's as if the other team is told exactly what run play is going to happen. Really pathetic. His best run yesterday was like for 6 yards where he had to bounce off and run throw like 5 guys.
Yet, LA is winning and 3-1. As someone else posted, Keenum is actually not horrible at the moment - though still makes some god awful throws - so maybe teams will stop going all out to stop Gurley.
Cody Swartz @cbswartz5
According to @pfref, Todd Gurley is first RB in NFL history with 80+ carries in his team's first 4 games and YPC under 2.75 (2.63).
8:18 AM - 3 Oct 2016
According to @pfref, Todd Gurley is first RB in NFL history with 80+ carries in his team's first 4 games and YPC under 2.75 (2.63).
8:18 AM - 3 Oct 2016
Andrew74
Footballguy
dkp993
Footballguy
The Jacket
Footballguy
Dynasty myself and at least a little worried. Has he made a single TG-quality play all year? I don't like just blaming the OL either, as a Chiefs fan I've seen backs make something out of nothing a LOT over the years, especially Charles early in his career. Gurley looks like he's running in quicksand.
The Jacket
Footballguy
Dynasty myself and at least a little worried. Has he made a single TG-quality play all year? I don't like just blaming the OL either, as a Chiefs fan I've seen backs make something out of nothing a LOT over the years, especially Charles early in his career. Gurley looks like he's running in quicksand.
packersfan
Footballguy
I'd say his run in Week 3 against the Bucs where he was fighting to keep himself from falling to the ground before finally falling around the 1 was one of the more impressive runs I've seen this season from a sheer balance perspective. I know it's not a 50-yard type of dynamic type of run and all that and that's what you're referring to and it wasn't a touchdown (although he did score a play or two later), but it was the type of play that showed what type of athlete he is and it was pretty damn impressive.
That being said, I agree we do need to see some "Wow" plays from him though the fact they finally got him involved in the passing game was a good sign albeit way overdue. Hopefully the fact it was productive will show the coaching staff it should continue. I'm unfortunately not going to hold my breath on that but you'd like to think common sense will prevail here. There's certainly no reason a player with Gurley's dynamic open-field ability shouldn't be getting 3-5 pass receptions per game. That should be built into the Rams' playbook every week, especially given their rather massive limitations in the passing game.
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
So are people selling? His team scores 28 and he doesn't get a TD. I get that he had 97 yards from scrimmage but this is about the easiest matchup he will see this year.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
No, he's still in my lineup and I'm not changing at this point unless things get worse.
Tex
dkp993
Footballguy
tombonneau
Footballguy
The fourth and goal from the one really summed up his problems: horribly predictable play call combined with atrocious run blocking.
packersfan
Footballguy
The pass play where he almost scored was a really creative play call. It was really shocking because it happens so infrequently but it shows what could happen if they just opened up the playbook more for this guy. Even with this team and with this quarterback there's so much potential if they just had some imagination. It's so frustrating. They don't even have to be REAL bold. Just try a little bit. It's not even that difficult. But Fisher is such a coward. It's amazing how bad he is at this.tombonneau said:
irish eyes
Footballguy
And to think I drafted this turd instead of David Johnson..FML! Thanks for my 2-4 record
The Jacket
Footballguy
I have been offered LeVeon Bell for him. *BUT* - before anyone quotes me and calls me an idiot for not accepting - it's a salary cap dynasty league. We have a $115,000 cap. I have Gurley signed for 3.5 years (.5 = option year) at $11k. Bell is a pending UFA and would require a one-use franchise tag, putting his cap number at somewhere between $37-47,000.
I don't know what to do. Gurley's age and contract situation is a huge asset; with that extra cap space I can sign other players. But Bell is Bell. If I make the trade, I'll have close to no cap space but my core signed for at least 2+ years all would be: Carr, Bell, Shady, Beckham, Cooks, Gronk. I mean...
I don't know what to do. Gurley's age and contract situation is a huge asset; with that extra cap space I can sign other players. But Bell is Bell. If I make the trade, I'll have close to no cap space but my core signed for at least 2+ years all would be: Carr, Bell, Shady, Beckham, Cooks, Gronk. I mean...
coyote5
Footballguy
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
I want to punch myself in the balls for not one, not two but THREE leagues I took him over Johnson.
The Jacket
Footballguy
Don't need advice, make my own judgements.Cool story to share in the assistant coach forum
Looking forward to your invaluable insight on Todd Gurley for the thread. Let's have it, Judge.
tombonneau
Footballguy
That really hurts. Sorry, man.
Luckily I didn't have to flagellate myself for that decision in Dynasty, though had DJ been on the board I still would have taken Gurley.
tombonneau
Footballguy
Yup, whenever they get him the ball in space it's like Oh Yeah, You Can Do That.
Fisher's ground game playbook is literally from the original Tecmo Bowl.
coyote5
Footballguy
Sorry man. I went back and re-read your post and now I realize I mistook it for a thinly-veiled trade advice question when it actually was a thinly-veiled humblebrag about your dynasty roster. Lesson learned for me, always read carefully before responding.
As far as insight, well, I'm a keeper league TG owner. I had the option to move him or Bell in a preseason trade, and I chose to move Bell. In redraft, that would look awful, but in dynasty/keeper, that call can't be made for another several years. Bell has had multiple knee surgeries and may or may not have substance issues that could affect his standing with the league in the coming seasons.
I've seen a lot of conversation about how bad the Rams line is, and that may well be, but football outsiders has some offensive line stats that make me question how much of this is on the line, and how much is on Gurley.
Through week 5 run blocking stats for the Rams: 28th in adjusted line yards, bottom of the pack. BUT, they are 16th in power success and 16th in stuffed runs, both mid-pack. Then you get to 2nd level and open field yards ranking - 32nd and 27th. Those stats would seem to be weighted towards Gurley than the line.
The Jacket
Footballguy
It was actually just a legit value-based theory around Gurley as an owner. I come in here to widen my view on whether I should stick with Gurley who's been struggling but we know has the talent and is locked up cheap, or if I should cut bait, guarantee some immediate production, but risk Gurley turning it around and doing the same/better for 1/4 the cost.
Your final 2 paragraphs are actually pretty interesting and the only reason I am in here. It contradicts some of what I've seen, where Gurley is constantly getting swarmed in the backfield in the most predictable situations (3rd- or 4th-and-1 seems most common), but I trust FO quite a lot usually.
Your final 2 paragraphs are actually pretty interesting and the only reason I am in here. It contradicts some of what I've seen, where Gurley is constantly getting swarmed in the backfield in the most predictable situations (3rd- or 4th-and-1 seems most common), but I trust FO quite a lot usually.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Ned Ryerson
Footballguy
I know it is cherry picking, but the Seahawks and niners are both worse at run blocking than the Rams, and michael and Hyde have been world beaters compared to gurley.
in fact the gap between expected ypc and actual ypc for gurley is the worst in the league. So by this metric, his run blocking may suck, but for an elite talent he is doing less with his blocking than any back in the league.
If he is an amazing back, then shouldn't he be able to transcend his line to be a bit below average, instead of the worst in the league?
Hankmoody
Footballguy
It's also an incorrect correlation. There's no adjustment for RB effectiveness. Gurley is just as likely propping the rankings up as Hyde/Michael are out-performing theirs. What would LOS ranking be with Jeremy Langford getting all those carries?Ned Ryerson said:
I can't find any stats but read something very interesting a couple of weeks ago. Gurley was averaging 2.7 yards per carry and 2.8 yards after contact. So on average he's getting hit .1 yards behind the line of scrimage. In a vaccuum this doesn't tell me anything but I'd love to see others' stats. What's normal? Is 2.8 good?
What is your source for "the gap between expected ypc and actual ypc for gurley is the worst in the league". Not doubting you, I just haven't seen this before.
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coyote5
Footballguy
They're middle of the pack on both runs stuffed and power success. And bottom of the pack on two stats - 2nd level, open field - that would seem to lean towards Gurley's effectiveness or lack there of. I wasn't providing a definitive answer, just food for thought.Hankmoody said:
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Based on what? What makes you think those stats would be better if a different RB were behind that same blocking? What makes you think that Gurley's talent hasn't actually helped those stats, and that they would be even lower with a less talented RB running the ball?They're middle of the pack on both runs stuffed and power success. And bottom of the pack on two stats - 2nd level, open field - that would seem to lean towards Gurley's effectiveness or lack there of. I wasn't providing a definitive answer, just food for thought.
coyote5
Footballguy
Because once you get to the 2nd level and especially open field levels it's more about the running back's talent to continue to gain yards than it is the offensive line? I mean, is this rocket science? Did you look at the link I provided in my original post that you quoted?
Take a look at Buffalo. RB yards are nearly 2 greater per attempt than the adjusted line yards. Power success, much worse than the Rams. Runs stuffed, slightly worse. 2nd level success, ranked 2nd. Open field ranked 1st. So there is an example where a talented running back in Leshon McCoy is taking what these stats say is a bad offensive line at the point of attack and producing by excelling at the 2nd level and in the open field.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
You can park the snark. I was just looking for information for how to use these stats. Thanks for the eventual explanation though, that's the thought process I was looking for. There's one thing I don't get yet though, which comes from their explanation: " A team with a low ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a high ranking in Open Field Yards is heavily dependent on its running back breaking long runs to make the running game work. " The inference one may take from this, and I believe many are, is that if you don't get a high Open Field Yard number you're not a good RB. That's not a good correlation. There's no adjustment for what the RB "should get" expectation. The core stat here isn't even based on "how the line blocked", but "how many yards the play got" (Adjusted Line Yards). For example:
David Johnson is hit 5 yards from the line of scrimmage, gets hit and falls sideways, and gets 5 yards.
2.5 Adjusted Line Yards (sans normalization)
RB Yards of 5.0
Second Level of 1.0.
Todd Gurley is hit 1 yard behind the line of scrimmage but makes a 3 yard gain
3.0 Adjusted Line Yards (sans normalization)
RB Yards of 3.0
Second Level of 0.
Using FO's methodology this looks like Johnson did more with less blocking based on the Adjusted Line Yards when in reality Gurley did pretty darn well to get what he got with much, much less line support. If Gurley isn't touched until he's 5 yards downfield and gains the same 4 yards after contact he would gain 9 yards and adjust to 4.5, 9.0, 4.0. Your use of Buffalo is a great example. I saw LeSean McCory running wild untouched on a ton of those big plays vs. SF - literally no one getting a finger on him. DJ's first big rushing TD on Monday night same thing. These statistics do not reflect how often that's happening for McCoy or Gurley, nor how well either is doing to take advantage of it.
Related, there's no accounting for the variance of the statistical population.
David Johnson has 10 carries for -1,2,2,2,4,4,5,5,5,8 yards
10 carries for 36 yards, 3.6 YPC
2.26 Adjusted Line Yards (sans normalization)
RB Yards of 3.6
Second Level of 1.6
Todd Gurley has 10 carries for 2,3,3,4,4,4,4,4,4,4 yards
10 carries for 31 yards, 3.6 YPC
3.56 Adjusted Line Yards (sans normalization)
RB Yards of 3.6
Second Level of 0.
One might infer that David Johnson is "doing more with less" due to outperforming Adjusted Line Yards by a larger margin and a higher Second Level, but both yield 10 carries for 36 yards. What suggests that DJ ran "better" than Gurley? And my original question still applies - did DJ get better blocking that caused the 8 yard runs but couldn't break any tackles on the short runs/losses? Did Gurley break a bunch of tackles behind the line of scrimmage to "save" the Adjusted Line Yards from an even worse number?
TL;DR This looks more like an Aggregate Running Game analysis and not an Offensive Line Blocking analysis.
David Johnson is hit 5 yards from the line of scrimmage, gets hit and falls sideways, and gets 5 yards.
2.5 Adjusted Line Yards (sans normalization)
RB Yards of 5.0
Second Level of 1.0.
Todd Gurley is hit 1 yard behind the line of scrimmage but makes a 3 yard gain
3.0 Adjusted Line Yards (sans normalization)
RB Yards of 3.0
Second Level of 0.
Using FO's methodology this looks like Johnson did more with less blocking based on the Adjusted Line Yards when in reality Gurley did pretty darn well to get what he got with much, much less line support. If Gurley isn't touched until he's 5 yards downfield and gains the same 4 yards after contact he would gain 9 yards and adjust to 4.5, 9.0, 4.0. Your use of Buffalo is a great example. I saw LeSean McCory running wild untouched on a ton of those big plays vs. SF - literally no one getting a finger on him. DJ's first big rushing TD on Monday night same thing. These statistics do not reflect how often that's happening for McCoy or Gurley, nor how well either is doing to take advantage of it.
Related, there's no accounting for the variance of the statistical population.
David Johnson has 10 carries for -1,2,2,2,4,4,5,5,5,8 yards
10 carries for 36 yards, 3.6 YPC
2.26 Adjusted Line Yards (sans normalization)
RB Yards of 3.6
Second Level of 1.6
Todd Gurley has 10 carries for 2,3,3,4,4,4,4,4,4,4 yards
10 carries for 31 yards, 3.6 YPC
3.56 Adjusted Line Yards (sans normalization)
RB Yards of 3.6
Second Level of 0.
One might infer that David Johnson is "doing more with less" due to outperforming Adjusted Line Yards by a larger margin and a higher Second Level, but both yield 10 carries for 36 yards. What suggests that DJ ran "better" than Gurley? And my original question still applies - did DJ get better blocking that caused the 8 yard runs but couldn't break any tackles on the short runs/losses? Did Gurley break a bunch of tackles behind the line of scrimmage to "save" the Adjusted Line Yards from an even worse number?
TL;DR This looks more like an Aggregate Running Game analysis and not an Offensive Line Blocking analysis.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Totally disagree with your conclusions. 2nd level success has a lot to do with blocking.
dkp993
Footballguy
The eye test is far more relevant to me then complex stats. You can tweak stats to say whatever you want. As a person who's watched every snap of the Rams this year I can tell you the eye test is clear. The line is getting blown up. He's got guys in his face the moment he gets the ball virtually every play, either his O-line guys who are getting pushed back or a defensive guys who's broke free. Has Gurley made poor decisions at times and picked wrong running lanes, no doubt. But unfortunately he's only getting 1-3 ok opportunities in a game to make these decisions not the 10+ he should get.
Rodrigo Duterte
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
This guy is a bum. I finally got to watch him play today. He's a little better than Trent Richardson. To the bench he goes. If I'm not mistaken he's been pretty average or worse since his first five games last year.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Browns QB Kevin Hogan came off the bench after Cody Kessler got a concussion in the 2nd quarter.
Daniel Jeremiah @MoveTheSticks 10h10 hours ago
How weird is this season? 100 yd rushing games Kevin Hogan 1 Todd Gurley 0
Daniel Jeremiah
How weird is this season? 100 yd rushing games Kevin Hogan 1 Todd Gurley 0
Kwai Chang Caine
Footballguy
I'm about to outright cut him. I had micheal Thomas at flex and chickened out. F me. I'd rather roll out someone like Sproles over him. This ridiculous. Don't tell me it's all his team's fault. Peterson and Snaders played on bad teams and were HOF. He's supposed to be in that category. What gives?
irish eyes
Footballguy
He is awful, his team is awful, head coach dreadful..he will not be in my lineup anymore. Biggest bust of last 10 years
Ned Ryerson
Footballguy
If you were to rank all teams by skill level at the following spots-
Offensive Line
Receiver talent
QB
The rams are bottom 5 in all three, right?
I mean, there's only so much he can do under those circumstances, right? What do you think wold happen if he and Ezekiel Elliott were to switch spots?
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Raging weasel
Footballguy
Did he get hurt? Rams were only down 7 and didn't see him in the 2nd half, was all Cunningham.
Ned Ryerson
Footballguy
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Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
Bad team with a bad Oline has coach with bad play calling. They never trailed by more than 10 but threw 46 times. Fisher wants to bring back ground and pound football with a good defense but refuses or forgets to commit to the running game.
The Jacket
Footballguy
Dynasty league so no cutting here, but I don't think I'm gonna start him the rest of the way. Except next week when I have absolutely no choice. And I'll expect 7 points max., as usual. UGH!
