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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (5 Viewers)

Its a start up.  
Probably after some of the more established QBs, and also after some of the top WR and RB. It's hard to say without seeing your scoring, or knowing keeper rules.

Since it's a start-up clean slate all rosters blank, he's going to be either a bench stash QB3 or a draft & pray QB2 for whichever team picks him. 

 
Concept Coop said:
How do you rank these guys: Pitts, Waller, Hockenson, Fant?
Waller's turning 29 opening day 2021. He should be first among those 4, but I would bet on the peak either being what we just saw or 2021. Depending on one's alternatives, might be a good time to cash out.

 
 but I would bet on the peak either being what we just saw or 2021. Depending on one's alternatives, might be a good time to cash out.
You may be right but I recall that was also said about Waller last year and I bought into it for the most part. I know last year I drafted Waller once but for the most part considered me not being high enough on him one of my biggest fails of the year.

Figuring out how a player ages can be tricky as will be on full display in a few days when we see the once great 31 year old Gronk vs the peak of greatness 31 year old Kelce. I recall buying Kelce two years in a TE premium league from an owner who was looking to get out due to his age.  Hard knowing sometimes how these things will got but Waller does seem pretty fresh.

 
You may be right but I recall that was also said about Waller last year and I bought into it for the most part. I know last year I drafted Waller once but for the most part considered me not being high enough on him one of my biggest fails of the year.

Figuring out how a player ages can be tricky as will be on full display in a few days when we see the once great 31 year old Gronk vs the peak of greatness 31 year old Kelce. I recall buying Kelce two years in a TE premium league from an owner who was looking to get out due to his age.  Hard knowing sometimes how these things will got but Waller does seem pretty fresh.
I try to play the averages rather than guessing which ones beat father time. The market doesn't always come to my desired price and I ride them out, but if I get a fair offer I'd rather jump off from a late 20something too early than get left holding the bag. Cause the idea is I swap them out for someone a half decade plus younger and already have a replacement teed up. Given the current TE landscape I get that may not be reality for many Waller owners though.

 
steeler6 said:
In a start 2QB 12 team startup, where would the 1.1 (Lawrence) go?
I have 6 players in Tier1, Trevor Lawrence isn't one of them. Tier2 has 19 players (22 if it's TE premium) in it, Trevor Lawrence is part of that tier.

In a startup I'm taking Lawrence back end of round 2 probably, maybe round 3 if my draft slot dictates that. Depends on if I've addressed QB already or not. I tend to go 1QB early, 1QB middling rounds, and wait a bit for my QB3 though. Some might prefer to load up QB earlier, in that case I can see Lawrence going back end of round 1. 

 
I have 6 players in Tier1, Trevor Lawrence isn't one of them. Tier2 has 19 players (22 if it's TE premium) in it, Trevor Lawrence is part of that tier.

In a startup I'm taking Lawrence back end of round 2 probably, maybe round 3 if my draft slot dictates that. Depends on if I've addressed QB already or not. I tend to go 1QB early, 1QB middling rounds, and wait a bit for my QB3 though. Some might prefer to load up QB earlier, in that case I can see Lawrence going back end of round 1. 
I would hope in a 2QB league he would be in Tier 1...

 
I have 6 players in Tier1, Trevor Lawrence isn't one of them. Tier2 has 19 players (22 if it's TE premium) in it, Trevor Lawrence is part of that tier.

In a startup I'm taking Lawrence back end of round 2 probably, maybe round 3 if my draft slot dictates that. Depends on if I've addressed QB already or not. I tend to go 1QB early, 1QB middling rounds, and wait a bit for my QB3 though. Some might prefer to load up QB earlier, in that case I can see Lawrence going back end of round 1. 
How much would you move that up if you draft a draft slot (ie instead of single picks, we draft the group of picks)

 
Who are your six Tier 1 guys? I’m assuming Mahomes, Kyler, Allen, Watson(assuming we are talking about 2QB) 
Mahomes, Watson

McCaffrey, Barkley, Taylor, Cooks

That's my Tier1 of players. Kyler and Allen are in the next tier. I'm still a tiny bit skeptical of both of them. 

 
How much would you move that up if you draft a draft slot (ie instead of single picks, we draft the group of picks)
Not sure what you mean? What is a "group of picks"? Do you mean if I draft the #1 slot so I get 1.01, 2.01, 3.01, 4.01? I've never seen that or done that I don't know how to value the entire group. 

 
I also dont see Lawrence as a tier one player in 2QB leagues as I dont think Burrow is (yet) either. You have to prove something in the NFL to get there in my view.

Tier 1 would be Mahomes, Jackson, Murray, Watson, Allen and maybe Herbert although I would like to see more from him as well before being totally sure on him. He put up fantastic numbers as a rookie though. Better than Mayfield and other good rookie seasons for a QB lately.

At RB its CMC, Cook, Chubb, Kamara, Barkley (for those with high risk tolerance).

WR is more difficult as there have been so many good WR to enter the league recently. The top guys Adams and Hopkins getting a bit older now.

 
I thought AJ Brown would be worth at least two 1st round picks in dynasty PPR, but maybe not? I was just offered 2021 1.12 & 1.05 for my AJB & my 2021 1.09. I'll pass

 
I thought AJ Brown would be worth at least two 1st round picks in dynasty PPR, but maybe not? I was just offered 2021 1.12 & 1.05 for my AJB & my 2021 1.09. I'll pass
It's a pass, but I don't think it's a horrible offer. I think the top WR at 1.5 will likely be at least on par with Brown by sometime in 2022. This WR class is loaded. Doesn't mean I'm considering moving Brown though.

 
It's a pass, but I don't think it's a horrible offer. I think the top WR at 1.5 will likely be at least on par with Brown by sometime in 2022. This WR class is loaded. Doesn't mean I'm considering moving Brown though.
There is no way I move AJB, a proven young stud, for the 1.05.

 
Mahomes, Watson

McCaffrey, Barkley, Taylor, Cooks

That's my Tier1 of players. Kyler and Allen are in the next tier. I'm still a tiny bit skeptical of both of them. 
I know Brandin Cooks had a good year this year but with Watson unhappy and likely moving on this seems like a stretch to move him all the way into a Tier 1 for a dynasty start up

(yes I am joking and assume you mean Dalvin)

 
I thought AJ Brown would be worth at least two 1st round picks in dynasty PPR, but maybe not? I was just offered 2021 1.12 & 1.05 for my AJB & my 2021 1.09. I'll pass
I'd have to get 2 of the first 3 or 4 1st round rookie picks to even think about moving AJB. 

 
I also dont see Lawrence as a tier one player in 2QB leagues as I dont think Burrow is (yet) either. You have to prove something in the NFL to get there in my view.

Tier 1 would be Mahomes, Jackson, Murray, Watson, Allen and maybe Herbert although I would like to see more from him as well before being totally sure on him. He put up fantastic numbers as a rookie though. Better than Mayfield and other good rookie seasons for a QB lately.

At RB its CMC, Cook, Chubb, Kamara, Barkley (for those with high risk tolerance).

WR is more difficult as there have been so many good WR to enter the league recently. The top guys Adams and Hopkins getting a bit older now.
I know people may think I'm nuts, but I'm willing to bet that Akers will be considered in that top tier this time next year. If I was drafting a dynasty team today he would be a huge target for me.

 
I know people may think I'm nuts, but I'm willing to bet that Akers will be considered in that top tier this time next year. If I was drafting a dynasty team today he would be a huge target for me.
I don't think you're nuts at all. I'd view him as Tier1 as well if it wasn't for the production difference in receiving between those top4 of mine and Akers. Once he proves that, it's RB1 overall ceiling. 

 
I know people may think I'm nuts, but I'm willing to bet that Akers will be considered in that top tier this time next year. If I was drafting a dynasty team today he would be a huge target for me.
The competition for that upper tier is stiff is my only hesitation. I'm of the opinion that in my almost 10 years playing  dynasty that we have reached a high point for quality top tier RB's. Which makes sense when you consider we've had two all time RB classes 2 out of the last 4 drafts. But with that 2017 class hitting 26-27 years old this time next season, basically the fantasy equivalent of middle aged,  I would anticipate a few of this last years rookie class moving up the totem pole.

As is Akers is already a likely first round startup pick and might be in redraft, I know I'm doing my first redraft of the year and I took Akers at 2.2 and only did not at 1.11 because I did not think he'd got 12/13.

 
Not sure what you mean? What is a "group of picks"? Do you mean if I draft the #1 slot so I get 1.01, 2.01, 3.01, 4.01? I've never seen that or done that I don't know how to value the entire group. 
Yep, that. I’m not sure how to value it either but have a month to figure it out.

 
I'd have to get 2 of the first 3 or 4 1st round rookie picks to even think about moving AJB. 
Man, this guy must really want AJB from me. He said we "have to get a deal done" lol no we don't. I asked him if there was any way he would put Diggs in a deal if I am moving AJB & he sent this...His Diggs, 1.12, Zach Moss, 4.03 & 4.04 for my AJB, Tua & 1.09. That's not an offer I want either. Sure, I have Lamar @ QB, but I want to move him & my only other QB is Cousins. (Start 1)

 
Man, this guy must really want AJB from me. He said we "have to get a deal done" lol no we don't. I asked him if there was any way he would put Diggs in a deal if I am moving AJB & he sent this...His Diggs, 1.12, Zach Moss, 4.03 & 4.04 for my AJB, Tua & 1.09. That's not an offer I want either. Sure, I have Lamar @ QB, but I want to move him & my only other QB is Cousins. (Start 1)
It doesn’t seem like he’s grasping the value of AJB very well

 
Akers as a tier 1 dynasty player seems insane to me.  The list of RBs that came in and had a good handful of games at the end of their rookie year and then turned out to be crap is extensive.

 
Akers as a tier 1 dynasty player seems insane to me.  The list of RBs that came in and had a good handful of games at the end of their rookie year and then turned out to be crap is extensive.
Couple things:

*I think NFL teams are starting to get smarter with rookie RB usage - start them off slow to keep them fresh until late then unleash them.

*Akers ascent was held back by a midseason injury - that's why he was more like a flip of the light switch instead of gradually having more added to his plate

 
Akers as a tier 1 dynasty player seems insane to me.  The list of RBs that came in and had a good handful of games at the end of their rookie year and then turned out to be crap is extensive.
I don't have time to look this up so maybe this will keep me to it, but how many of those are high profile, top talent, over 3k yards from college, 21 year old rookies?

 
I don't have time to look this up so maybe this will keep me to it, but how many of those are high profile, top talent, over 3k yards from college, 21 year old rookies?
I mean I'm not sure how many fit that exact criteria, and if we add guys with 3-letter names first names that have a gun model spelled in the beginning of their last name the list likely gets even shorter :P .  But we're talking 1st, 2nd, 3rd round NFL picks here.  Not just random Salvon Ahmeds and the like.

And let's not pretend that Akers' college production was a GOOD thing.  His lousy college efficiency was the biggest knock on him coming into the league.

I have no problem liking Akers but he is so far away from the profile of anything I would consider a tier 1 dynasty player right now, even if he does eventually become one.

 
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I mean I'm not sure how many fit that exact criteria, and if we add guys with 3-letter names first names that have a gun model spelled in the beginning of their last name the list likely gets even shorter :P .  But we're talking 1st, 2nd, 3rd round NFL picks here.  Not just random Salvon Ahmeds and the like.

And let's not pretend that Akers' college production was a GOOD thing.  His lousy college efficiency was the biggest knock on him coming into the league.

I have no problem liking Akers but he is so far away from the profile of anything I would consider a tier 1 dynasty player right now, even if he does eventually become one.
The thing I like is that he was thrown into the starting role off the bat and got hurt. It took a while for him to recover and to pick up the offense (all the rookies were in this same situation due to COVID). Once he got his chance, he ran with it and really proved himself.

McVay has called him "special," and McVay has a history of riding one back that he likes and believes in (see Gurley and Akers at the end of the year).

It is just shaping up, IMO, that Akers is going to have a HUGE workload next year, and he looks like he can handle it. 

 
I mean I'm not sure how many fit that exact criteria, and if we add guys with 3-letter names first names that have a gun model spelled in the beginning of their last name the list likely gets even shorter :P .  But we're talking 1st, 2nd, 3rd round NFL picks here.  Not just random Salvon Ahmeds and the like.

And let's not pretend that Akers' college production was a GOOD thing.  His lousy college efficiency was the biggest knock on him coming into the league.

I have no problem liking Akers but he is so far away from the profile of anything I would consider a tier 1 dynasty player right now, even if he does eventually become one.
I seem to be remembering Akers as having excellent efficiency and a lousy oline. I could be mistaken. But I do know for sure Akers made a lot of nothing more times then he ran through open lanes. 

 
I seem to be remembering Akers as having excellent efficiency and a lousy oline. I could be mistaken. But I do know for sure Akers made a lot of nothing more times then he ran through open lanes. 
People like to use the FSU excuse but the truth is while FSU was awful by FSU standards, they weren't awful by college football standards.  Plenty of prospects come from worse teams with worse O-lines.  Keshawn Vaughn, for instance, had nearly identical college stats to Akers while playing for Vandy against SEC competition.

Akers is a fine prospect for this year and currently looks like a good swing to take at his current late 2nd round startup value.  To me though that is still a long ways from a tier one dynasty player in the same way I wouldn't have called Julius Jones, Jeremy Hill, Miles Sanders, or any of those guys tier 1 dynasty players even after coming off basically better versions of Cam's rookie season.

 
I guess we shall see what he says.I'm ok with Golladay for 1.08, but maybe I'd do it now if he took Engram from me instead of Goedrt in his offer...
KeepTradeCut says it's fair (assuming you enter Mid 1st as the 1.08 and Early 3rd as the 3.03, as you can't specify the 1.08 or 3.03 exact pick).   

I think Waller for Allen is fair, and I think the 1.08 for Golladay is fine.  Goedert for a 3rd is giving him away.  He'd either need to take Engram instead of Goedert, or change that 3rd to a 2nd to get closer. 

 
KeepTradeCut says it's fair (assuming you enter Mid 1st as the 1.08 and Early 3rd as the 3.03, as you can't specify the 1.08 or 3.03 exact pick).   

I think Waller for Allen is fair (I'd lean Waller), and I think the 1.08 for Golladay is fine.  Goedert for a 3rd is giving him away.  He'd either need to take Engram instead of Goedert, or change that 3rd to a 2nd to get closer. 

 
People like to use the FSU excuse but the truth is while FSU was awful by FSU standards, they weren't awful by college football standards.  Plenty of prospects come from worse teams with worse O-lines.  Keshawn Vaughn, for instance, had nearly identical college stats to Akers while playing for Vandy against SEC competition.

Akers is a fine prospect for this year and currently looks like a good swing to take at his current late 2nd round startup value.  To me though that is still a long ways from a tier one dynasty player in the same way I wouldn't have called Julius Jones, Jeremy Hill, Miles Sanders, or any of those guys tier 1 dynasty players even after coming off basically better versions of Cam's rookie season.
I agree we can't put him in Tier 1 yet. I'm just saying that next year at this time I think it will be a different story.

 
Define tier 1?
Up earlier, @Biabreakable defined the Tier 1 RB's as: CMC, Cook, Chubb, Kamara, Barkley (for those with high risk tolerance).

I'd probably agree with that. It wouldn't surprise me to see Akers included in that group next year.

Edit: In fact, I'm not sure I'd trade Akers straight up for Chubb right now. And I may not take Barkley for him.

 
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Up earlier, @Biabreakable defined the Tier 1 RB's as: CMC, Cook, Chubb, Kamara, Barkley (for those with high risk tolerance).

I'd probably agree with that. It wouldn't surprise me to see Akers included in that group next year.

Edit: In fact, I'm not sure I'd trade Akers straight up for Chubb right now. And I may not take Barkley for him.
Thanks, missed the earlier definition.

I don't consider Chubb in that tier one category myself, the situation with Hunt is worse for Hunt but still drains Chubb as well.

My favorite article on this site is Dan Hindery's trade value chart and maybe it's my favorite because I usually agree with a lot of it as I do in this RB rankings were he's got Akers at 6, ahead of Chubb and with Taylor as part of the 5 above him with the other RB's you listed. I agreed with all of it myself.

Which all goes back to why I asked what defines tier 1. You look at Hindery's list and he works out to RB6, player 11 and again I'm pretty much in the same range,would probably put Akers somewhere between player 10-12 in normal PPR leagues. I guess that's not quite tier yet.

Like I said earlier on Akers if he does not rise up more next year it might not be based on his play not reaching level some of us think he can reach but there are just a ton of really talented young RB's, mainly from last year's class that could vault him.

 
Antonio Brown's value? 
Don't listen to the haters?

Now that he's gimpy, less than you might have gotten for him in the run-up to Wks 14-16. Depends what happens to Godwin in FA, really. Do they franchise him or work out an extension? If not, does Brown take his place or does Scotty Miller or Tyler Johnson operate out of the slot. Brown's gonna be thirty-three and hasn't really lit it up for the Bucs, though I read his yards per route run is still an impressive 1.9 or so.

But after his Super Bowl media appearances where he says he thinks he's a "good person" who is beset by "haters," you have to wonder about the guy.

That's a long way of saying "I don't know." But anybody who tells you they do know is sort of fibbing.

 
wlwiles said:
KeepTradeCut says it's fair (assuming you enter Mid 1st as the 1.08 and Early 3rd as the 3.03, as you can't specify the 1.08 or 3.03 exact pick).   

I think Waller for Allen is fair, and I think the 1.08 for Golladay is fine.  Goedert for a 3rd is giving him away.  He'd either need to take Engram instead of Goedert, or change that 3rd to a 2nd to get closer. 
He's just 1 of those guys that either really loves X player or overvalue. Oh well

 

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