Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter spider321
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RC94
Footballguy
You should be able to get at least one of the top 5 rookie QBs in the early 3rd in 1 QB leagues. I would rather have any of them over Brady in a dynasty league at this point. No way would I pay more than a 3rd for him, but as I said, I probably wouldn't trade an early 3rd since I would rather wait and see if one of the top rookie QBs is available. Someone asking for 2.04 or Reagor for Brady in a 1 QB league belongs in the "worst offers I've gotten" thread.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I'd consider Mac Jones w/the niners over Brady because Shanahan, but that'd probably be the only situation that'd give me pause. Mac's plausible peak is what Brady already is and what's the likelihood of that actually happening? I'm less certain any of the other 4 survive round 2. I count 18 RB/WR/Pitts I might draft over them and I expect some number of them to fall off that list.
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RC94
Footballguy
It's possible the last of the top QBs go in the late 2nd, but having at least 1 fall to the early 3rd happens most years and this year is especially deep at QB. This is a strange offseason, so more than ever I think the NFL draft will change a lot of people's rankings and draft projections. I would at least wait until after the NFL draft to trade for Brady, unless you're really just a 44 year old Brady away from a championship. While I agree with you about the risks involved with rookies vs a sure thing like Brady, but Brady is more than 20 years older than these rookies. That's a big reason why I would rather take my chances with one of them at this point, but the NFL draft will help me get a better idea of who might be available in the 3rd round of our drafts (12 teams is my assumption when discussing this).
That said, I think both of our perspectives on Brady are valid and we will both find people who agree and disagree with us, which is why I enjoy playing with experienced people who think about their strategy like you do rather than just follow some trade calculator.
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Zyphros
Footballguy
Someone asked about Josh Jacobs earlier and I just saw a trade go down in 1 of my leagues, I traded him away in one of my other leagues, and I got an insulting offer in another.
Anyways:
The completed deal was 1.03 for Josh Jacobs. I was a bit surprised by this price actually, but I like it for both. Good cash out, and possibly a buy "cheap" depending on what he does his next few years
The one I traded him away for was Jacobs/Tonyan/Chark - for - Miles Sanders/OBJ. Not too thrilled with it after a few days but I like Miles a lot so figured what the heck.
Insulting offer was Kendrick Bourne/Gaskin for Jacobs but he's new to dynasty so I'll give him a break. Just talked it out a bit after that and said I was still high on Jacobs so it doesn't meet my mark for a close offer.
Anyways:
The completed deal was 1.03 for Josh Jacobs. I was a bit surprised by this price actually, but I like it for both. Good cash out, and possibly a buy "cheap" depending on what he does his next few years
The one I traded him away for was Jacobs/Tonyan/Chark - for - Miles Sanders/OBJ. Not too thrilled with it after a few days but I like Miles a lot so figured what the heck.
Insulting offer was Kendrick Bourne/Gaskin for Jacobs but he's new to dynasty so I'll give him a break. Just talked it out a bit after that and said I was still high on Jacobs so it doesn't meet my mark for a close offer.
Catbird
Footballguy
I would take the 1.03 without hesitation. I know the risk is far higher with an untested kid, but I don't think Jacobs is a difference maker, particularly with Drake shaving away receptions and so 3rd down snaps generally, but the kid might be a star. That's what wins fantasy leagues, not steady RB2s.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’d say it would be fair to see how they do this year & EE still has potential to grow into a mid-level fantasy TE.
I’m interested in how well EE does with softer coverage after the Golladay addition, and with Saquan back in the fold to make it even softer.
If EE sucks this year, I’ll give up on him. But I believe the potential is there. And if he hits, imma sell high.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I would sell Jacobs for a 1.03 as fast as I could hit the mouse button, were I a Jacobs owner. There’s a pretty solid RB in the top 5 picks, and one of the potentially elite passers.
Jacobs just welcomed Drake into the backfield & I’m not yet sure that the OL is improved.
So yeah, that’s a mouse-melting accept.
Penguin
Footballguy
I've never been a Montgomery fan but it's really surprising what his fan boys are trying to trade him for. I've been told he's a top 4 PPR RB. Lol, I have him around RB 20 and #75 overall.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
(my) Homerism aside, I like Monty's skillset and production in the last half of the season when Nagy was relieved of playcalling duties. But honestly, there's so many moving parts in Chicago right now that I'd rate him more of a cautious hold than anything else. Dalton is an upgrade over Trubisky in every sense of the word. Presumably they will target OL and WR in the draft. So the stage could be set for a solid low end RB1 / high end RB2 season for him. The wheels could also come off with this team and he could be relegated back to single digit carries.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I’m not a Montgomery fan, but why is Dalton a minus for him? I doubt Dalton is any worse than Foles or Tribisky. If anything I think he’s at least a mild improvement over those two.
Spike
Footballguy
The only offer I got for Jacobs (and it was a counter offer) was my Jacobs for his 1.11. Yeah, I'm not selling him for that.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
If you can get an offer of 1.8 or better you should consider it. I agree with you about the 1.11. The reason I say 1.8 or better is because of Harris, Williams, ETN, Chase, Waddle, Smith, Bateman, Pitts.
MAC_32
Footballguy
The stars aligned perfectly for Montgomery last season. He drew a conga line of bottom 5 run d's on the other side of their bye - Detroit, Houston, Minnesota without Kendricks, and Jacksonville. Chicago's going into the season with one of the league's worst offenses and has a front office/coaching staff likely to be blown up at season's end. A new group will come in with no ties to him and his contract expiring at season's end.
Full disclosure, I've never seen the appeal with him, but I think this is the peak. Maybe the early season schedule will be soft, but if not I'd jump ship now. Even if the best I can get is a late 1 (but not Gaskin/Bourne - woof).
Full disclosure, I've never seen the appeal with him, but I think this is the peak. Maybe the early season schedule will be soft, but if not I'd jump ship now. Even if the best I can get is a late 1 (but not Gaskin/Bourne - woof).
joey
Footballguy
I have the 1.10 and Drake, and considering a duringxdraft offer of my 1.10 for Jacobs hoping rookie fever will be in full affect. Do folks like one of Gainwell or Carter (the likely rookie RBs available at 1.10) over Jacobs?
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
I think you will have a hard time getting Jacobs for either Gainwell or Carter at 1.10. A player that might be available at 1.10 that could be considered over both Gainwell and Carter is Marshall, or a remote chance of Lawrence in a start 1qb league. If I were you I would sit tight at 1.10, but I'm definitely not buying Jacobs, even if I owned Drake.
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joey
Footballguy
Kelce value in TE premium?
my team is in the middle of “win now” (Zeke, Hill, Kelce, Andrews) and young/long term (Herbert, Claypool, Shenault, Pittman, Trautman) and limbo (CDavis, Mostert/Wilson, Tua, Drake). So I’m torn if I trade away Kelce (who is literally a weekly game winner in TE a premium) for an offer that¡s 1.8, 1.11 and 2.05 (to go with my 1.10) or just stand pat and try to pull together one last playoff run. Or do I see if I can turn up the offer to his 1.05 instead of 1.08 or am I being needlessly greedy?
yes this turned into a blatant AC Forum question but does anyone visit thee at all?
thoughts appreciated
my team is in the middle of “win now” (Zeke, Hill, Kelce, Andrews) and young/long term (Herbert, Claypool, Shenault, Pittman, Trautman) and limbo (CDavis, Mostert/Wilson, Tua, Drake). So I’m torn if I trade away Kelce (who is literally a weekly game winner in TE a premium) for an offer that¡s 1.8, 1.11 and 2.05 (to go with my 1.10) or just stand pat and try to pull together one last playoff run. Or do I see if I can turn up the offer to his 1.05 instead of 1.08 or am I being needlessly greedy?
yes this turned into a blatant AC Forum question but does anyone visit thee at all?
thoughts appreciated
rockaction
Footballguy
My opinion, FWIW. Try and turn that offer up. I don't think that the offer is that outstanding for Kelce.
battlestar
Footballguy
In my mind if he wants Kelce and it’s TE premium he is the one paying the premium, not you. Aim for those early picks.Kelce value in TE premium?
my team is in the middle of “win now” (Zeke, Hill, Kelce, Andrews) and young/long term (Herbert, Claypool, Shenault, Pittman, Trautman) and limbo (CDavis, Mostert/Wilson, Tua, Drake). So I’m torn if I trade away Kelce (who is literally a weekly game winner in TE a premium) for an offer that¡s 1.8, 1.11 and 2.05 (to go with my 1.10) or just stand pat and try to pull together one last playoff run. Or do I see if I can turn up the offer to his 1.05 instead of 1.08 or am I being needlessly greedy?
yes this turned into a blatant AC Forum question but does anyone visit thee at all?
thoughts appreciated
jtd13
Footballguy
In non SF, that's easily Kelce for me.Kelce value in TE premium?
my team is in the middle of “win now” (Zeke, Hill, Kelce, Andrews) and young/long term (Herbert, Claypool, Shenault, Pittman, Trautman) and limbo (CDavis, Mostert/Wilson, Tua, Drake). So I’m torn if I trade away Kelce (who is literally a weekly game winner in TE a premium) for an offer that¡s 1.8, 1.11 and 2.05 (to go with my 1.10) or just stand pat and try to pull together one last playoff run. Or do I see if I can turn up the offer to his 1.05 instead of 1.08 or am I being needlessly greedy?
yes this turned into a blatant AC Forum question but does anyone visit thee at all?
thoughts appreciated
I have Kelce and Waller paired in a league that is 2PPR for TE (everyone else is 1), and Superflex. Having 2 of those guys is a huge advantage. While I'm competing it would take a Godfather offer to get one of them off me, like a top 5 pick plus an early 2nd type value in SF.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I would keep him. I feel like you're underestimating how big your window is. For me as long as I am a strong contender I need a Godfather offer to move him. I don't think that offer is terrible but I don't think it is close either. I just saw dude above used the same phrase. Anyway I think your team has more staying power than you're giving it credit for.
Spike
Footballguy
Something I've been curious about now for a few years is, in the dynasty world, the running QB and how they age.
Cam Newton is a good starting point for this discussion. We've all seen him age badly in the last 3 years. It's very apparent the years of him imposing his will physically on defenders has taken an irreversible toll on him.
Because of this, I wonder how sensible it is (for ff purposes) to depend on the running QB. While this might be more important in SF/2QB leagues, it can still have a big impact in 1QB leagues.
For this year, I would say we can group the top 5 QBs in 2 groups - the pocket passer (Mac Jones) and the running QB (Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Justin Fields).
Might it be smart to factor in the likelihood that the running QB will lose value due to taking punishment by running? We definitely have some QBs who are smart with their running - Russell Wilson being the best at this. You very rarely see Wilson taking the big hits Newton takes. So while Newton definitely rushes for more yardage and TDs than Wilson, Wilson doesn't miss time and is quite likely to age better than Newton.
I know that even in the 1QB dynasty leagues I'm in, the price point for QBs has outpaced their value (at least to me).
I just wonder if we (collectively) need to start pushing the top level QB into the bottom half our our 1st round rookie drafts.
Cam Newton is a good starting point for this discussion. We've all seen him age badly in the last 3 years. It's very apparent the years of him imposing his will physically on defenders has taken an irreversible toll on him.
Because of this, I wonder how sensible it is (for ff purposes) to depend on the running QB. While this might be more important in SF/2QB leagues, it can still have a big impact in 1QB leagues.
For this year, I would say we can group the top 5 QBs in 2 groups - the pocket passer (Mac Jones) and the running QB (Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance and Justin Fields).
Might it be smart to factor in the likelihood that the running QB will lose value due to taking punishment by running? We definitely have some QBs who are smart with their running - Russell Wilson being the best at this. You very rarely see Wilson taking the big hits Newton takes. So while Newton definitely rushes for more yardage and TDs than Wilson, Wilson doesn't miss time and is quite likely to age better than Newton.
I know that even in the 1QB dynasty leagues I'm in, the price point for QBs has outpaced their value (at least to me).
I just wonder if we (collectively) need to start pushing the top level QB into the bottom half our our 1st round rookie drafts.
joey
Footballguy
Thanks for all of the replies, guys. I turned it up with a counter for his 1.05 and he accepted. so I got 1.05, 1.11 and 2.05 for kelce. I’m crossing my fingers that I can grab Pitts at 1.05 and then like go BPA at 1.10,1.11,2.05 with a bias towards getting a few of those 2nd tier RBs (Gainwell, Carter, Sermon, etc) to restock my RB cupboard.
rockaction
Footballguy
JohnnyU
Footballguy
In start 1 QBs leagues I like the top 8 no particular order, with Chase, Waddle, Smith, Bateman, Harris, Williams, ETN, and Pitts. After that you have Marshall, Lawrence, Gainwell, Carter, and the two Moore’s in no particular order. After that you have Fields, Wilson, Lance and Freiermuth. After that you have some talent at WR, albeit with bust potential, along with RBs with no NFL draft capital. So, in conclusion, you need to obtain top 10 picks. After that I believe the bust potential goes way up. I also believe there are a lot of WRs in the second round that are interesting, but most are undersized and are slot types. A few that are traditional size / speed guys carry other warts.Ilov80s said:
battlestar
Footballguy
Grabbing Pitts at 5 would be brilliant and was precisely why I suggested targeting the early picks. I mean, it provides access to near-elite talent at a couple positions anyway but for me in your situation I would grab Pitts if he’s there and be very happy.joey said:
ZWK
Footballguy
I have Kelce, Waller, and Pitts pretty close to each other. So moving Kelce for what could be Pitts++ is great value. Also great value if you wind up with Chase or one of the top 3 RBs instead of Pitts. Might be worth seeing what Waller would cost if you want to focus on competing this year.
MAC_32
Footballguy
There is usually a dead zone sometime in the first 2 rounds and I'm just not seeing it this year. I have 2 or 3 picks between picks 7 and 21 and don't intend to pursue anything before the draft because I don't want less picks in that zone. I may package them with early '22 picks to move up though.Ilov80s said:
rockaction
Footballguy
If you're going to go that way, I'd go Fields or Lance depending on your scoring. But I don't think any of them are worth a top five pick in a 1QB league.
MAC_32
Footballguy
I'm not making any qb drafting plans until I know where those 2 are going. I'd rather get them for cheaper in a good situation than Lawrence stuck with Urban.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, I should make a universal caveat to almost everything I say by qualifying whatever it is with "depends where they land" or "depends on their draft capital and situation," because, for instance, there are receivers I'd easily take at certain draft slots, but if they wind up in say, New England or Baltimore, I'd have to think long and hard about it.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
#### flows down hill. My eye brow was raised about Urban day 1 and there's only been reasons to support that since. A good OC doesn't matter if the coaching/decision making on top is incompetent. I'm less concerned about Lawrence short term because I think Urban will encourage him to run (a lot?), but I'm tugging at my collar looking at the big picture. And that's my priority when it comes to this position in this format. I want a QB that I am confident will be a top tier player in a year or two, whether that's in my lineup or as a trade piece elsewhere.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
i agree with you if it's a start 1qb league. I personally see him taken at the 1.9, with Harris, ETN, Williams, Chase, Waddle, Smith, Bateman, Pitts all going before Lawrence.
Lehigh98
Footballguy
jm192
Footballguy
Lehigh98
Footballguy
A couple trades that went down during my SF, TE premium, devy league dispersal draft last week:
Henry, Derrick TEN RB & Hopkins, DeAndre ARI WR
traded for
Deshaun Watson and Rookie Pick 1.05
----------------------------------------------------------
Burrow, Joe CIN QB and Jordan, Brevin FA TE
traded for
Andrews, Mark BAL TE and Darnold, Sam CAR QB
----------------------------------------------------------
Robinson, Allen CHI WR
traded for
Rookie Pick 1.14
Henry, Derrick TEN RB & Hopkins, DeAndre ARI WR
traded for
Deshaun Watson and Rookie Pick 1.05
----------------------------------------------------------
Burrow, Joe CIN QB and Jordan, Brevin FA TE
traded for
Andrews, Mark BAL TE and Darnold, Sam CAR QB
----------------------------------------------------------
Robinson, Allen CHI WR
traded for
Rookie Pick 1.14
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Well he's in a great offense and while Fournette signing wasn't what his owners were hoping for, I believe the Fournette deal is one year and not a ton of money. And the Bucs depth chart actually lists both as starters (kind of odd). Plus Jones had over 5 yards per carry last year (Fournette averaged 3.7), so he definitely improved from the previous year. He's a hold and good buy low IMO.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
Not answering your question just pointing this out because it's hard to believe but when training camps open in late July ROJO and Najee Harris will both be 23.
Now I know that's cheating and playing with dates because ROJO will be turning 24 the next week but still, he's just 7 months older.
kutta
Footballguy
Shawnky
Footballguy
Yeah, that’s why I’m curious what his worth is. He’s really young and doesn’t have a great deal of use. I thought he looked great last year, but Arians didn’t seem willing to commit to him as a full time back. Wondering if he moves on once his contract is up and if that would increase his value.
