Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (6 Viewers)

[Milkman]

Diggs is the WR 1 for the Vikings.

When you consider that Diggs seems to keep missing games, as a pro and also in college though, I think they are more even.

With both healthy Diggs tends to outperform Theilen though.

Case Keenum missed Diggs on some wide open long play opportunities against the Browns. Keenum has come to rely on Theilen and even moreso with Diggs out. So they may be more even for awhile with Keenum in the line up.

Overall Diggs has more upside though. You just have worry about him missing games.

Check out some of the play examples in this article for Keenum not seeing Diggs and going to other receivers. A better QB should find Diggs on these plays.

Thielen had 4 more targets through 5 games and 8 more targets through 6 games. Not sure if it holds up over the entire season but to say that Diggs is def the teams #1 when he wasn't commanding more targets over a 3rd of the season........idk seems off. Diggs was def tearing it up though and he might not be completely healthy from that groin injury.  

 

[Concept Coop]

Bolded I disagree with. Moving to the slot has been huge for Thielen. 2 points more a game huge and that's with him running bad scoring TD's. He is tied for the team lead in red zone targets with Rudolph. Diggs was targeted more in the red zone when he was healthy though 5-4 through 5 games. Small sample and very close so I don't think it tells us a lot really. The big outliers is Diggs/Thielen's TD rate's. Which should over time converge unless you think Diggs is a special red zone threat that is just emerging. I don't but can't really hate someone for thinking that. He is good.

With Thielen's red zone involvement he could easily be a 8-9 TD a season guy....if he had run a little better in the TD department he could easily be WR6-7 right now on a per game basis.......  

You're trying to have it both ways.  You want to maintain the slot targets, but project the outside TDs.  I don't think Diggs is a special red zone threat, but he'll clearly have more big play opportunities on the outside.  Which is what the move to the outside was all about - big plays.  It was essentially a promotion and it's worked.  He's averaging 15 YPR and making explosive plays down the field, including TDs.  

 

[Milkman]

Guys on my roster sometimes look better than they actually are to me, too 

From a non-owner perspective it seems like he's benefiting from teams not respecting Keenum, Diggs being out, Keenam throwing a lot of balls to Thielen. I doubt NFL teams will make him their WR1, so he'll either need continued injuries around him or for Minnesota to become a top 10 passing team in order for him to maintain a top 20 status. It's not easy to be top 20 when you're on the WR1.

He's currently getting almost 10 targets a game and he's catching 64% of them. Getting a good QB is not going to change that. Julio Jones has a career catch rate of 63% and Antonio Brown is 66%. Thielen isn't going to magically catch 75% when he gets a QB upgrade. He's just lucky to be getting 64% from a bad QB. I don't think it is sustainable with Keenum, but it is with a better QB. The target rate is only sustainable if he becomes his team's de facto WR1. 

Braylon Edwards was once a WR1 with Derek Anderson. Dwayne Bowe was once a WR1 with Matt Cassel. These things happen from time to time.

nice post Thanks! Take the first game out when Bradford played and what is he catching? 39 catches on 65 targets.......there's room for improvement but still a good point you make.

 

[NeverEnough]

So, what's Josh Gordon worth today in terms of a future draft pick?  Would you pay a middle of the road 2nd round rookie pick for him (say in the 14-18 range)?

I would not pay close to that.

 

[Concept Coop]

So, what's Josh Gordon worth today in terms of a future draft pick?  Would you pay a middle of the road 2nd round rookie pick for him (say in the 14-18 range)?

Good question. I have no idea.  I'd move a 3rd without thinking, but am not sure about a 2nd.  

 

[Milkman]

You're trying to have it both ways.  You want to maintain the slot targets, but project the outside TDs.  I don't think Diggs is a special red zone threat, but he'll clearly have more big play opportunities on the outside.  Which is what the move to the outside was all about - getting Diggs' big play ability on the outside.  It was essentially a promotion and it's worked.  He's averaging 15 YPR and making explosive plays down the field, including TDs.  

I don't know what the averages are but Thielen plays outside too. My understanding was they move these guys all over. Does anybody have the numbers or know where I can get them? My point was the targets in the red zone are there for Thielen to realize a positive correction on his TD rate and putting him in the slot certainly didn't hurt his production. He averaged 14 ypc I think last year when he played on the outside so it's not like he wasn't succeeding out there too. His ypc have understandably dropped but his targets have increased substantially with his move to the slot.

 

[Concept Coop]

I don't know what the averages are but Thielen plays outside too. My understanding was they move these guys all over. Does anybody have the numbers or know where I can get them? My point was the targets in the red zone are there for Thielen to realize a positive correction on his TD rate and putting him in the slot certainly didn't hurt his production. He averaged 14 ypc I think last year when he played on the outside so it's not like he wasn't succeeding out there too. His ypc have understandably dropped but his targets have increased substantially.

Most of this conversation has been confirmation bias on both sides.  It really comes down to talent evaluation.  You think Thielen is one of the best WRs in the league.  Based on that, you're right to value him the way you do.  I see a good, solid #2 NFL WR, which is why I'm questioning your stance.  Time will tell.  

Edit: I do see your point on the TD rate.  

 

[Milkman]

Most of this conversation has been confirmation bias on both sides.  It really comes down to talent evaluation.  You think Thielen is one of the best WRs in the league.  Based on that, you're right to value him the way you do.  I see a good, solid #2 NFL WR, which is why I'm questioning your stance.  Time will tell.  

Edit: I do see your point on the TD rate.  

I think he's looked like one of the best WR in the league but I didn't really put a number on it. I'd trade Dez, Jordy, or Crabtree for him straight up if I was rebuilding. He's maybe WR15ish for me. His upside is WR8 and his floor with this usage is WR20 in this offense with these QB's this year.  

 

[Concept Coop]

I think he's looked like one of the best WR in the league but I didn't really put a number on it. I'd trade Dez, Jordy, or Crabtree for him straight up if I was rebuilding. He's maybe WR15ish for me. His upside is WR8 and his floor with this usage is WR20 in this offense with these QB's this year.  

Sorry if I misquoted you.  I just meant to suggest that it will eventually come down to talent - which is what makes the format so fun - and that time will tell.  I respect the call.  

 

[Dr. Octopus]

What I wanna know is where people are on Alex Collins.  Is he going to cost more than a 2nd?  What WR/TE can he bring in?

I was offered Paxton Lynch and two random thirds which was an easy decline for me. I've been a fan since he was a prospect and like what I've seen so far so I'm not sure I'd even take a second at this point. I'd rather hold and suffer the consequences should he not take the next step.

I think he's a tough buy or sell at this point because no one really knows what he can be or if he'll get a real chance.

 

[Concept Coop]

Deshaun Watson with a non-contact ACL tear.  Ugh. 

Edit: Per Rapoport

 

[Biabreakable]

You're trying to have it both ways.  You want to maintain the slot targets, but project the outside TDs.  I don't think Diggs is a special red zone threat, but he'll clearly have more big play opportunities on the outside.  Which is what the move to the outside was all about - big plays.  It was essentially a promotion and it's worked.  He's averaging 15 YPR and making explosive plays down the field, including TDs.  

Diggs won a contested catch TD situation earlier this year. He isn't that big, so not a player you would expect to win contested catches in the red zone, but he can do that. Career splits for Diggs are 22 targets 18 receptions 2 TDs. seven 1st downs. Scoring TD in the red zone has been a point of emphasis for the Vikings, but they have still ended up kicking a lot of field goals.

Diggs only has 11 TD so far in his 3 year career. So its not like he has been a prolific TD receiver. I think injuries, poor offensive line play and mediocre QB play are contributing factors in that. 

Adam Theilen only has 7 TD over his 4 year career. One of those as a rookie. He is a bit taller than Diggs but its not like he is better than Diggs on a per opportunity basis. Theilen just scored his first TD of the season against the Browns. Wide open, one of the easiest TDs you will see a WR make, mostly because Keenum was rolling out and the defender came up to stop him from running. Keenum was a bit late with the throw too, as I think he could have hit Theilen earlier in the route, he was open for a pretty long time and just waited in the corner of the end zone for the ball.

Kyle Rudolph has been the main red zone target for the Vikings. One of the few things Rudolph is actually very good at. Using his height and rebounding skills to score TDs there. This is a role that Treadwell was drafted for but hasn't materialized yet. I think the addition of Michael Floyd was part of the Vikings trying to get better in the red zone as well.

Adam Theilen is very good Currently WR 5 in PPR leagues and less than 2 points behind AJ Green. Mostly with Case Keenum. Thats amazing. He is very solid and efficient. 9.5 yards per target for his career thus far. Diggs is at 8.6 yards per target, with more targets though.

Still think Diggs is the WR 1 for the Vikings, but both players are very close to the same value. 

As far as their roles in the offense Theilen has played more from the slot this year. Both play all 3 WR roles depending on the play call. When Diggs has been out with injury Theilen slides into his role as the primary receiver. They run a lot of the same routes, I think Diggs runs his routes a bit better than Theilen does, he is more quick twitch, not to say that Theilens routes are bad. They are very good, just not as explosive as Diggs is.

The quick cuts Diggs makes are part of why I think he has had injuries. He puts a lot of strain on his body with some of the extreme moves he makes. Theilen wins more at the top of his routes, while DIggs wins earlier in the route on most plays.

Diggs is better with Bradford at QB than Keenum, because Bradford gets the ball out more quickly than Keenum, has better arm strength and accuracy. Bradford can hit those deep passes much better than Keenum, who really needs to get his whole body into those deeper throws.

 

[Andrew74]

Deshaun Watson with a non-contact ACL tear.  Ugh. 

Edit: Per Rapoport

Man, the NFL and fantasy didn't need this.  

 

[Andrew74]

I will confess my utter lack of knowledge of this guy.  But someone just dropped Doctson in my main league.  I didn't see any mentions of him in this thread this season; what's the outlook?  I assume he's worth a stash over someone like Travis Benjamin or Demarcus Robinson.  

 

[jp81976]

I play in a league with heavy performance based defensive scoring. I gave up a 4th for Jacksonville in the pre-season as a Seattle owner, and just traded Seattle away for a 2nd. I buy Jacksonville as a special defense long term. I don't know that I see the Broncos dropping off significantly, but if you can target Jacksonville I would.

no one would ever trade a defense for a pick in my league. defenses never retire. 12 team league so only so many teams can have 3. i was desperate my 2nd year in the league (we've been going 14 years now) and i traded the saints defense for a pick and a starting running back. i won a championship, largely due to that trade and still i regret it 12 years later.

 

[Concept Coop]

I will confess my utter lack of knowledge of this guy.  But someone just dropped Doctson in my main league.  I didn't see any mentions of him in this thread this season; what's the outlook?  I assume he's worth a stash over someone like Travis Benjamin or Demarcus Robinson.  

I think he's certainly worth a roster spot in leagues with normal sized benches.  I'd happy take him over the likes of Benjamin and Robinson.  It's hard to argue that hasn't looked like a bust to this point, but it's too early to completely pull the plug.  

I don't own him and haven't really given much thought to trading for him.  But I would guess his value is in the late 2nd range.

 

[PPRGuy]

Paul Richardson or Dede Westbrook PPR ROS/Dynasty Value????

I play in a dynasty league and I'm looking to add some bench depth at receiver since Garcon just went down... 
Can't decide between Paul or Dede, the obvious being Dede having higher potential long term than Paul while Paul is contributing now with Long term upside too.

When I really think about it, both have similar value in terms of risk/reward but am I over-hyped on Dede long term? Is Paul gonna take any consistent step in that offense long term?

 

[Concept Coop]

I'm taking Richardson over Westbrook right now.  He's startable and has flashed some upside.  I like Westbrook as a buy, however. 

 

[NeverEnough]

I think he's certainly worth a roster spot in leagues with normal sized benches.  I'd happy take him over the likes of Benjamin and Robinson.  It's hard to argue that hasn't looked like a bust to this point, but it's too early to completely pull the plug.  

I don't own him and haven't really given much thought to trading for him.  But I would guess his value is in the late 2nd range.

I traded Zay Jones for him this year

 

[doog7642]

no one would ever trade a defense for a pick in my league. defenses never retire. 12 team league so only so many teams can have 3. i was desperate my 2nd year in the league (we've been going 14 years now) and i traded the saints defense for a pick and a starting running back. i won a championship, largely due to that trade and still i regret it 12 years later.

We have a rule that nobody can carry 3 defenses (or offensive lines, which we also use). 14 team league, so there are always at least four available, and because teams know there will always be at least four there are usually a few more. 

 

[oldmanhawkins]

Is ajayi’s arrow pointing up or down?  

I bought semi low (before foster was signed) and have been looking to move on from him.  Couldn’t get a top 4 pick in the off-season so I stood pat, thinking better opportunities would present themselves.  They haven’t, and I’m not thrilled with the fact he was traded (though the consensus in philly seems very positive).  

What’s comparable RB?  I’d imagine it will be impossible to find someone with a top 4 first that would be interested

 

[Biabreakable]

I will confess my utter lack of knowledge of this guy.  But someone just dropped Doctson in my main league.  I didn't see any mentions of him in this thread this season; what's the outlook?  I assume he's worth a stash over someone like Travis Benjamin or Demarcus Robinson.  

If you would like to know more about Doctson I would suggest reading the early parts of the Doctson thread. I was very high on him as a rookie prospect and I still am. His progress has been slowed because of achilles injury last year. It is only just recently that he has earned significant playing time.

I definitely think he is worth picking up. He has been playing 80% of the snaps the last two weeks and is their best WR moving forward, the main thing that has held him back is injury. Great player to stash and I would rather have him that the other two WR you mention, who have put up numbers recently as well, but I don't think have the same long term upside as Doctson has.

 

[Biabreakable]

Paul Richardson or Dede Westbrook PPR ROS/Dynasty Value????

I play in a dynasty league and I'm looking to add some bench depth at receiver since Garcon just went down... 
Can't decide between Paul or Dede, the obvious being Dede having higher potential long term than Paul while Paul is contributing now with Long term upside too.

When I really think about it, both have similar value in terms of risk/reward but am I over-hyped on Dede long term? Is Paul gonna take any consistent step in that offense long term?

I would go with RIchardson due to better QB play although I like both players a lot. I think you are right that both players likely similar value. Richardson is 25 right now. His early career has been derailed by injuries, so you may consider him more of a risk because of that, he isn't as young as Westbrook is.

To me it comes down to the QB though and I think that makes RIchardson a better choice of the two. Both are worth having though.

 

[Biabreakable]

I traded Zay Jones for him this year

I like both of these players but I think Doctson has more upside to be a WR one in fantasy than Jones has.

Doctson was a tier one prospect for me, while Jones was tier two.

 

[Biabreakable]

Is ajayi’s arrow pointing up or down?  

I bought semi low (before foster was signed) and have been looking to move on from him.  Couldn’t get a top 4 pick in the off-season so I stood pat, thinking better opportunities would present themselves.  They haven’t, and I’m not thrilled with the fact he was traded (though the consensus in philly seems very positive).  

What’s comparable RB?  I’d imagine it will be impossible to find someone with a top 4 first that would be interested

I think it is pointing up for Ajayi.

He may not get the same volume of opportunity with the Eagles (likely not) but the opportunities he does get should be of higher quality due to better offensive line and QB play with the Eagles than Miami. Also the Eagles coaches do not hate Ajayi (yet) Gase never seemed to be on board with Ajayi even after he rode him to a lot of wins last year. The Eagles sound more willing to use Ajayi as a receiver than Gase was, something that still somewhat confuses me.

Maybe Jay has some real flaws as a receiver and in pass protection as stated by Gase, I really haven't seen hard evidence of that however, as I have seen him do well at those things at the college and pro level. The negative comments in this regard seem a bit more like sour grapes and perhaps Gase just covering his own behind. Only time will tell if those issues persist or not with the Eagles. Ajayi has a clean slate there and Pederson being a Andy Reid associate will use him as a receiver more as long as he proves capable.

If you do not like Ajayi long term, just hope for him to have some big games in weeks ahead. If he does then maybe you can trade him for the price you are looking for if/when he does.

 

[oldmanhawkins]

I think it is pointing up for Ajayi.

He may not get the same volume of opportunity with the Eagles (likely not) but the opportunities he does get should be of higher quality due to better offensive line and QB play with the Eagles than Miami. Also the Eagles coaches do not hate Ajayi (yet) Gase never seemed to be on board with Ajayi even after he rode him to a lot of wins last year. The Eagles sound more willing to use Ajayi as a receiver than Gase was, something that still somewhat confuses me.

Maybe Jay has some real flaws as a receiver and in pass protection as stated by Gase, I really haven't seen hard evidence of that however, as I have seen him do well at those things at the college and pro level. The negative comments in this regard seem a bit more like sour grapes and perhaps Gase just covering his own behind. Only time will tell if those issues persist or not with the Eagles. Ajayi has a clean slate there and Pederson being a Andy Reid associate will use him as a receiver more as long as he proves capable.

If you do not like Ajayi long term, just hope for him to have some big games in weeks ahead. If he does then maybe you can trade him for the price you are looking for if/when he does.

Thanks Bia, I’ve followed your analysis of ajayi over the last two years and you have generally been spot on and always consistent in your analysis of him.  I don’t dislike him, I just don’t consider him a cornerstone dynasty player.  So, if I can move him for that, I want to do it.  I’m from philly and there are a couple homers in the league, so I’m unsure if I should throw some offers out now, or wait it out as you suggest.

What kind of RB does he fetch now straight up?  How does he compare to Kamara/mixon/cook?  

 

[Dope]

if you could get one of kamara/mixon/cook for Ajayi...thats stealing imo.

 

[NeverEnough]

if you could get one of kamara/mixon/cook for Ajayi...thats stealing imo.

I'd do Ajayi for Cook, but not the other 2.

 

[Biabreakable]

Thanks Bia, I’ve followed your analysis of ajayi over the last two years and you have generally been spot on and always consistent in your analysis of him.  I don’t dislike him, I just don’t consider him a cornerstone dynasty player.  So, if I can move him for that, I want to do it.  I’m from philly and there are a couple homers in the league, so I’m unsure if I should throw some offers out now, or wait it out as you suggest.

What kind of RB does he fetch now straight up?  How does he compare to Kamara/mixon/cook?  

I don't really know what people might be willing to give for Ajayi right now?

I guess thats a good question for this thread.

I would definitely move for him for Mixon or Cook. In the case of Kamara its close in PPR but I might rather keep Jay.

As Cook won't help you for the rest of this season, maybe you could ask the Cook owner to give more than just Cook for him, although I think it would be fair straight up as well.

Curious what others might think of Jays value right now.

For me Ajayi was a tier one rookie prospect, same as Mixon and Cook so I see those as lateral moves. Kamara a tier two RB so I would lean more towards Jay there.

 

[Biabreakable]

if you could get one of kamara/mixon/cook for Ajayi...thats stealing imo.

Opinions of Jay obviously vary. If that would be stealing, what do you think Ajayi is worth? Or what would you give up to acquire him?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I don't really know what people might be willing to give for Ajayi right now?

I guess thats a good question for this thread.

I would definitely move for him for Mixon or Cook. In the case of Kamara its close in PPR but I might rather keep Jay.

As Cook won't help you for the rest of this season, maybe you could ask the Cook owner to give more than just Cook for him, although I think it would be fair straight up as well.

Curious what others might think of Jays value right now.

For me Ajayi was a tier one rookie prospect, same as Mixon and Cook so I see those as lateral moves. Kamara a tier two RB so I would lean more towards Jay there.

I offered Ajayi for Cook in a league a few weeks ago to the 2nd place owner who is desperate for a RB2 (he is currently starting Ty Montgomery there) and it was rejected without a counter.

I like Ajayi well enough but I don't think his consensus value is anywhere near Mixon or Cook right now.  I'd be surprised if the Kamara owner was willing to move him for Ajayi either.  I would think most would probably want a 1st in addition to Ajayi (at least for Mixon or Cook).

 

[Man of Constant Sorrow]

I offered Ajayi for Cook in a league a few weeks ago to the 2nd place owner who is desperate for a RB2 (he is currently starting Ty Montgomery there) and it was rejected without a counter.

I like Ajayi well enough but I don't think his consensus value is anywhere near Mixon or Cook right now.  I'd be surprised if the Kamara owner was willing to move him for Ajayi either.  I would think most would probably want a 1st in addition to Ajayi (at least for Mixon or Cook).

That is accurate in regards to my league as well.

 

[Tau837]

I like Ajayi well enough but I don't think his consensus value is anywhere near Mixon or Cook right now.  I'd be surprised if the Kamara owner was willing to move him for Ajayi either.  I would think most would probably want a 1st in addition to Ajayi (at least for Mixon or Cook).

I'm surprised this is even in question. Consensus FBG dynasty rankings posted within the past 35 days have Ajayi at #21, with Mixon, Cook, and Kamara all in the top 15. And that seems about right IMO. Now consider that Ajayi has another 8 games before another rookie RB class enters the league and pushes him further down. He is barely a top 25 dynasty RB right now, and that isn't worth much in my leagues.

 

[Biabreakable]

Well if consensus rankings are the end all be all then why are we discussing anything JWB?

Obviously the value of Ajayi will depend a great deal on how he performs with the Eagles.

I think it is very unlikely that Ajayi was RB 21 going into this season, just goes to show how quickly perception about these things change.

 

[oldmanhawkins]

I'm surprised this is even in question. Consensus FBG dynasty rankings posted within the past 35 days have Ajayi at #21, with Mixon, Cook, and Kamara all in the top 15. And that seems about right IMO. Now consider that Ajayi has another 8 games before another rookie RB class enters the league and pushes him further down. He is barely a top 25 dynasty RB right now, and that isn't worth much in my leagues.

That’s Jason wood’s ranking, correct? And pre-trade?  I think most would place him above Murray and Martin on age alone. Lamar Miller over ajayi seems off as well.  Henry seems like a good comp.  So maybe not so far off from mixon?

I agree with your take that Ajayi is on shaky ground due to the incoming class. And because of the trade, he needs to perform now or his value will fall even farther.  That’s my concern - but maybe others are optimistic on his outlook after going from one of the worst teams in the league to the best.

 

[Travieso]

Thanks for the feedback. That DT owner fleeced the Coleman owner, IMO. The Coleman teams are unfortunately out of contention so they are not interested in older WRs. I may have to wait until after the NFL draft, when rookie fever is strong, to successfully trade a late 1st for him.

Thanks for the feedback. That DT owner fleeced the Coleman owner, IMO. The Coleman teams are unfortunately out of contention so they are not interested in older WRs. I may have to wait until after the NFL draft, when rookie fever is strong, to successfully trade a late 1st for him.

I was able to buy Coleman to add to a young team for my 2nd (2.2 - 2.4) and MWallace   for    Coleman  and a third (should be non playoff team.

 

[-OZ-]

I was able to buy Coleman to add to a young team for my 2nd (2.2 - 2.4) and MWallace   for    Coleman  and a third (should be non playoff team.

Has Coleman really fallen that much? Yikes. I've liked Wallace enough in past years but he's doing Jack squat this year, I'm not even starting him and my team sucks right now. Mostly just surprised there's a 3rd attached with Coleman. I think he's worth a late 1st.

 

[mikel2014]

I've been a big CoreyColeman fan but I traded him away recently for some win now WR help. Team had Odell, Coleman, Enunwa, and Garçon all go down with injuries but still 6-2. 

Traded: Coleman, D'Onta Foreman, Adam Shaheen

Received: Jordy Nelson, Marvin Jones 

With team needs this made sense for both. My starting WRs are now Jordy, Marvin, AJ Green, and TY Hilton. Gives me those 4 plus Odell and Garçon for next year too. He's done for the year and looking to next. 

 

[Hankmoody]

I was able to buy Coleman to add to a young team for my 2nd (2.2 - 2.4) and MWallace   for    Coleman  and a third (should be non playoff team.

Has Coleman really fallen that much? Yikes. I've liked Wallace enough in past years but he's doing Jack squat this year, I'm not even starting him and my team sucks right now. Mostly just surprised there's a 3rd attached with Coleman. I think he's worth a late 1st.

No, that was just a terrible trade.  No one with 1/2 a brain is giving Coleman for a 3rd-2nd bump

 

[djmich]

I've been a big CoreyColeman fan but I traded him away recently for some win now WR help. Team had Odell, Coleman, Enunwa, and Garçon all go down with injuries but still 6-2. 

Traded: Coleman, D'Onta Foreman, Adam Shaheen

Received: Jordy Nelson, Marvin Jones 

With team needs this made sense for both. My starting WRs are now Jordy, Marvin, AJ Green, and TY Hilton. Gives me those 4 plus Odell and Garçon for next year too. He's done for the year and looking to next. 

I've been a big CoreyColeman fan but I traded him away recently for some win now WR help. Team had Odell, Coleman, Enunwa, and Garçon all go down with injuries but still 6-2. 

Traded: Coleman, D'Onta Foreman, Adam Shaheen

Received: Jordy Nelson, Marvin Jones 

With team needs this made sense for both. My starting WRs are now Jordy, Marvin, AJ Green, and TY Hilton. Gives me those 4 plus Odell and Garçon for next year too. He's done for the year and looking to next. 

Not a fan, simply because I don't think jordy and Marvin are big enough help now guys.  I'm not sure  jordy outscores coleman weeks 13+

 

[mikel2014]

Not a fan, simply because I don't think jordy and Marvin are big enough help now guys.  I'm not sure  jordy outscores coleman weeks 13+

Yeah I get it. For me Marvin Jones was a pretty big part of the deal too. 

 

[Tau837]

Well if consensus rankings are the end all be all then why are we discussing anything JWB?

I didn't say they are the end all be all, and I posted to contribute to the discussion.  

I happen to own Ajayi, Mixon, and Kamara in different leagues, and someone would have to pair a starting WR with Ajayi or a similar upgrade to get me to trade either Mixon or Kamara for Ajayi. I don't own Cook, but I would love to, and I think he is justifiably ranked well above Ajayi.

Opinions obviously vary, but I don't see Ajayi as a top 15 dynasty RB right now. For anyone who does, I'd be interested to see where you slot him in the top 15, i.e., who is above and who is below.

That’s Jason wood’s ranking, correct? And pre-trade?

It was a consensus of 3 rankings submitted within the past 35 days - Wood, Hindery, and Tefertiller. Wood's was dated 10/31, but I assume it is fair to say the ranking was made prior to the trade.

I think it is very unlikely that Ajayi was RB 21 going into this season, just goes to show how quickly perception about these things change.

Absolutely. Expanding the consensus to include rankings submitted within the last 90 days adds 3 more rankings from 8/28 to 9/21, and all had Ajayi ranked between 8 and 11.

That said, of course he has dropped since 9/21. Since that date, he has played 6 games and produced 110/333/0 rushing and 12/63/0 receiving. Zero TDs, 3 ypc and 5 ypr. :X   And on top of that, he drew the ire of his HC to the point that the HC called him out in the media.

At this point, he has played 31 career games, and he has topped 15 fantasy points 4 times. And only 1 time in his past 15 games. On what basis would anyone rank him highly at this point, until and unless he can prove that it was his situation holding him back?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Opinions obviously vary, but I don't see Ajayi as a top 15 dynasty RB right now. For anyone who does, I'd be interested to see where you slot him in the top 15, i.e., who is above and who is below.

I don't really know where I have Ajayi ranked prior to looking at this, but looking at the dynasty list you mentioned that has Ajayi at #21, here are the guys ranked ahead of him that I would consider him over:

Murray
Henry
Martin
Ingram
Hyde
McCaffrey
Miller
McCoy

Not sure where I would slot him in with those guys.  Consensus I'm sure has Henry/McCaffrey way over him but I am lower on those guys than most.  I almost certainly would take him over Murray, Martin, Miller.  So that leaves him somewhere in the 13-18 range, probably more towards the middle or low end of that.

I think the most enticing thing about him is that he has a pretty clear path to gaining value quickly.  All he has to do is flash a little in Philly and suddenly people will be salivating over a young RB with a good fantasy season already under his belt taking over the lead RB spot on one of the best offenses in football next year when Blount is gone.  Of course, he hasn't flashed much this year so that's not exactly a given, and your point about him only scoring 15+ points 4 times in 31 career games is a very compelling one.

 

[Tau837]

I don't really know where I have Ajayi ranked prior to looking at this, but looking at the dynasty list you mentioned that has Ajayi at #21, here are the guys ranked ahead of him that I would consider him over:

Murray
Henry
Martin
Ingram
Hyde
McCaffrey
Miller
McCoy

Not sure where I would slot him in with those guys.  Consensus I'm sure has Henry/McCaffrey way over him but I am lower on those guys than most.  I almost certainly would take him over Murray, Martin, Miller.  So that leaves him somewhere in the 13-18 range, probably more towards the middle or low end of that.

I think the most enticing thing about him is that he has a pretty clear path to gaining value quickly.  All he has to do is flash a little in Philly and suddenly people will be salivating over a young RB with a good fantasy season already under his belt taking over the lead RB spot on one of the best offenses in football next year when Blount is gone.  Of course, he hasn't flashed much this year so that's not exactly a given, and your point about him only scoring 15+ points 4 times in 31 career games is a very compelling one.

I don't typically do comprehensive rankings, but I would probably rank tiers something like this, also in approximate order within tiers:

• Tier 1 - Elliott (22), Gurley (23)
  
• Tier 2 - Bell (25), Fournette (22), Hunt (22), David Johnson (26)
  
• Tier 3 - Mixon (21), Cook (22), Kamara (22)
  
• Tier 4 - McCaffrey (21), Howard (23), Gordon (24), Freeman (25), Henry (23)
  

That is 14. After that, as you noted there is a large group that is IMO more difficult to separate. There is a large age/mileage disparity between most of the players I named above and the likes of Martin, Ingram, Hyde, Miller, and McCoy. How to rank that older group will vary based upon one's opinion of the importance of age.

I suppose I could see Ajayi at #15 given your bolded statement combined with his age (24). But I have low confidence in that ranking. I also know another rookie class gets injected after 9 more regular season games, and I expect at least a few rookies (e.g., Barkley, Chubb, Adams, Harris, Guice, Love) to inject into the tiers I laid out above, pushing others including Ajayi down.

The original question that led to this tangent was how Ajayi compared to Mixon, Cook, and Kamara. I have all three of them in my top 9, and Ajayi in a gaggle that falls between 15-20+. Hence my initial reaction.

 

[dipandglide]

Are any fyou buying low on Tyrell Williams? He’s been inconsistent this year but is an UFA ay years end. He’s not a sexy name, just curious where others are with him in dynasty

 

[BearsFan4Life]

Are any fyou buying low on Tyrell Williams? He’s been inconsistent this year but is an UFA ay years end. He’s not a sexy name, just curious where others are with him in dynasty

14 team dynasty and he is a FA right now

 

[Tau837]

Are any fyou buying low on Tyrell Williams? He’s been inconsistent this year but is an UFA ay years end. He’s not a sexy name, just curious where others are with him in dynasty

I recently posted about him in his thread. I was high on his prospects until the team drafted Mike Williams, but still held out hope that he would show improvement this season and thus be able to hold off Mike Williams. That hasn't happened.

He is a RFA after this season, not a UFA. I doubt the Chargers will let him go, since it seems almost certain they will release Benjamin, they already traded away Inman, and both Allen and Mike Williams have missed time due to injuries. IMO it is most likely that Tyrell will be the #3 WR next season behind and also likely behind Henry and Gordon in the target pecking order. If Allen or MW gets hurt, he could have value, otherwise probably not.

After 2018, he would stand to possibly be a UFA, but how realistic is it for a team to sign him to be higher in their target pecking order? I suspect 2016 was a career year he will never come close to replicating.

 

[dipandglide]

I recently posted about him in his thread. I was high on his prospects until the team drafted Mike Williams, but still held out hope that he would show improvement this season and thus be able to hold off Mike Williams. That hasn't happened.

He is a RFA after this season, not a UFA. I doubt the Chargers will let him go, since it seems almost certain they will release Benjamin, they already traded away Inman, and both Allen and Mike Williams have missed time due to injuries. IMO it is most likely that Tyrell will be the #3 WR next season behind and also likely behind Henry and Gordon in the target pecking order. If Allen or MW gets hurt, he could have value, otherwise probably not.

After 2018, he would stand to possibly be a UFA, but how realistic is it for a team to sign him to be higher in their target pecking order? I suspect 2016 was a career year he will never come close to replicating.

Oops. For some reason I thought he was a UFA. 

Thanks for the thoughts, guys. 

 

[dipandglide]

If you could buy one of: Doctson, Coleman, Parker, or M. Williams, who would it be and why? 

 

[huthut]

Sorry if I missed discussion on this since it is a large thread that I have not been up to date on, but what are the thoughts on Derrick Henry for next year? Murrey's contract is up after this one, right?