I haven’t really taken the time to rank players at this point but I can tell you that Davis is someone that I have little interest in, largely due to the coaching staff and offensive philosophy. Now if that staff gets fired it becomes a different story but as of now not willing to invest much in Davis. I’d pay a last 1st rookie pick for him right now.
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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
It was a disappointing season but I still believe in his talent. He struggled to stay healthy all year and was a rookie. He should be much better next year. The only WR from 2017 that I considered tier one.
The Titans offense isn't ideal. They don't throw the ball enough and when they do its still very focused on getting Walker the ball. I think Davis could be better with a coaching change. From the sound of things the Titans might change offensive coordinators but unlikely they change the head coach because they made the playoffs. I think Mularkey does hold Davis back somewhat, and that may not change soon.
I'm not sure exactly where I would slot him for a start up draft, but something like 40 or so I guess.
Looking at Mike Clays list, he has Davis ranked 34. So a little but more bullish on him than I am, but I was just making a rough guess. Possible when I go through everyone I might have Davis higher than that. I see Clay has Davis ranked right after Stefon Diggs. I really like Diggs but I dunno if I would take him over Davis. I think Diggs is a bit over rated, although the potential with him is there.
If Davis were in an offense where I had more confidence in him being a 120+ target guy I would be higher on him than I am. I think he will break out next year. The offense does hold him back though. Maybe Mularkey gets canned next year though and things shift more in Davis favor. I do think Mariota is good enough, Davis mostly just needs more targets I think.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
You guys make compelling cases. It's just hard for me to justify valuing a 22 year old talented question mark over a nearly 25 year old who put up a combined 1500/12 at a position with few workhorses.
I'm hesitant to continue discussing my situation specifics, but to place this discussion in its full context: I'm sitting on a counter of Melvin for Mixon/Mike Williams/devy-weakened 1.5. Very difficult to justify hitting send. I don't know if context helps but I'm coming off of a championship and also own Gurley/Hunt/Freeman.
Obviously the best type of trade you can make as a dynasty owner is to trade a current known quantity for a younger player that grows into the same production, and getting more value in return to make the swap. Its the most reliable way to make quantifiable leaps forward in roster value, if you can identify the right deals. Like when I dealt Julio for Evans and a mid 1st a year or two ago. That's the rub--is this that type of deal? I sense that Melvin Gordon is one of the most controversial players in the dynasty community. Mixon probably as well.
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I think it all comes down to your gut. The question you need to ask yourself is whether or not you feel Mixon will outperform Gordon over the next several years. I don't know the answer but my gut tells me Mixon is the better long term bet. Gordon has a well established role and a pretty safe floor, but I view Mixon's ceiling as higher. Further, you are adding Mike Williams and a first round pick- but again- the central piece of this deal is Mixon v. Gordon. I wish you the best of luck.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Id take it on value alone. A long time to make moves before the 2018 season. I suspect we will get some fluff pieces on both Mixon and Williams this offseason and they will be easy to move if you so desire. Surprisingly, Gordon doesn’t have a huge trade market from what I’ve found.
I offered Bell for pick 1.1 in an FFPC league a few days ago, it was finally turned down last night.
He's hard to let go but for the reasons you laid out I think the time is now.
Aunt Jemima
Footballguy
What is the value of 1.1/Barkley? I'm finding it difficult to find any sellers. Offered 1.2,1.9,1.10 and was rejected within an hour. Does it take Gurley or Kamara, etc. at this point to acquire him? We don't know landing slot yet but in PPR today is he top 3 rb??
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I asked about him and the guy wanted Fournette and Corey Davis and not a penny less. I think he’s a good sell right now and I love him but his value is already that of Zeke or Gurley and that’s a lot of risk with little upside.
I own the 1.01 in a couple leagues and the only players I would move it for are Gurley, Hopkins, OBJ
Usually I feel like people need to see it first with a rookie and if I believe strongly in that rookie I can usually get him less than what I think he'll quickly be worth. This is not the case so far with Barkley, the price for him right now is like the price of Elliot AFTER he got drafted by the team with the best OL in football. His upside seems already built into the price, no "need to see it first" discount seems to exist.
I've made the following offers for him in last few days, all turned down, all in different leagues.
Bell
3/7
Fournette/12
johnadams
Footballguy
I don't think you're going to pry 1.01 with prospects or picks. You'll need to move like 1.2 + established stud to even get a counter.
Warhogs
Footballguy
I would say that 1.1 is not available in that league. If you can't move up the 1 slot by throwing in two later first round picks that other team is loving 1.01 too much. Barkley looks very enticing with his all around game but so did past guys like Reggie Bush. I would take that deal and the extra picks.Aunt Jemima said:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Somebody sell me on Barkley over Kamara. Kamara was hands down one of the best offensive players in the league this year. He put up 1,554 YFS, 13 offensive TDs, and 81 receptions. He averaged over 6 YPC and 10 YPR. He averaged 31.5 per kick return, including a TD. Kamara is winning off tackle, between the tackles, out of the backfield, and out of the slot--including down the field. He finished RB3 on the season, despite missing 95% of one game and sharing touches with AP, in addition to Ingram, for 4. BTW, he's the same size as Cook and Hunt and has the frame for more touches, which is scary.Aunt Jemima said:
Kamara is a special NFL player. Barkley is a special prospect. It's a no-brainer for me. You're adding a lot to the 1.01 to get Kamara from me.
Great point. I love Barkley and am sure he will be an elite RB but Gurley and Zeke have already done it.fruity pebbles said:
If you hold the 1.1 and can get something like Fournette and Davis for that selection, you hit the yes button as quickly as possible.
If I own that pick, I put it out to the league that this type of deal is what it will take. People get crazy and hyperfocused on shiny new toys.
kutta
Footballguy
I really like Henry and have been very patient with him, and I’m stoked about next year. But I’d give up him and Watkins for the 1.02 in a heartbeat.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
That’s interesting. I have Kamara and id deal him straight up for Barkley. I wouldn’t add anything but straight up I’d take the risk. Kamara seems more situation dependent to me. Barkley more of a work horse.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
This pretty much sums up most trades involving studs. If I'm giving up a guy I know it's great for one I'm hoping to be great you're going to have to pay something for the risk I'm taking on.
You make a great point. My biggest concern with regard to Kamara is TD sustainability. He looks to be a yardage king in the perfect location. I can't really argue with anyone that likes Kamara more than Barkley.
I would ever so slightly favor Barkley because I believe his skill set is slightly superior to Kamara's- but it is close.
Kamara reminds me e a lot of mjd his rookie year. Mjd had 1377 scrimmage yards, 46 receptions and 15 tds. And 860 kick return yards with 1 td.
The problem is is they were both so great they’re rookie years, it’s tough to keep that production up.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I just don't see many scenarios in which Kamara isn't getting ~8-10 carries and ~ 6 targets a game. And unlike most, I have no reason to think he can't handle a lot more carries - again, he's McCoy, Hunt, Cook, Faulk sized. I think any efficiency dip is offset by the potential for more carries.
I think it's reasonable enough to prefer Barkley, and I know I'm in the minority. I just can't bring myself to move such a weapon for a guy who doesn't even have an NFL team yet.
Blick
Footballguy
Obviously it always good to try to target undervalued UFAs whose value could increase (i.e. end up in a better situation) based on landing spot. Based on this year's crop, I think I'm looking at:
- Isaiah Crowell - Its never bad to get out of Cleveland.
- Jeremy Hill - I know there is a lot of Mixon love on this board, but I still don't know why he was drafted by Cinci. Hill is more than servable as a big back. I know attitude can be an issue, but I think he could be a serviceable starter for someone.
- Donte Moncrief - Has shown flashes with good QB play.
- Trey Burton - Buried behind Ertz.
- Austin Seferian-Jenkins
- Doug Martin - It sure seems like his time in TB may be over.
Agree with you 100%. Kamara will still get his touches- anywhere between 15-20 a game and be an elite RB1.
Likewise, Barkley, who will be a top 5 pick, will also get no fewer than 20 a game. I see a Zeke/Fournette like impact here.
I just like Barkley a touch more.
Nothing against Kamara, he's already a special back, just a judgement call on my part.
Would not argue with someone who felt differently.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Honestly that deal isn't worth taking only because the offers are only going to get sweeter. It's January, it would have to be a huge overpay for me to give up being in control of the bidding for the most hyped prospect I can remember. People have been waiting for Barkley since he was a freshman, similar to Gurley but without the injury, with more perceived receiving ability, and even more believers. Two later firsts on top of the 1.02 are nice but not worth doing it in January.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
There's no reason to even try to acquire 1.01 at this point. It's never going to appreciate in value compared to what you have to give. The whole reason to trade for an unproven commodity like that is so that you can take advantage of it increasing in value. But paying top 5 prices for a guy that isn't even part of the NFLPA yet has only downside to it.
One More Rep
Footballguy
I am on the same page. Would immediately move Kamara for 1.1. Kamara over 1.2 for me at the moment though
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think you make a good point, but to play devils advocate: Barkley will be one of the youngest players in the league once drafted. Based on longevity alone, his upside is as high as it gets. So the upside of trading a 25 YO top 5 asset for a 21 YO top 5 asset is, potentially, 4 years of additional high end production. So while most of us would agree that the 25 YO top 5 assets are likely to be much safer than Barkley, there's still plenty of room for the Barkley side to win by quite a bit.
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Which is all the more reason to sell if you get a great offer. As an example, another poster noted that the owner of the 1.1 was looking for a Fournette and C. Davis return. If you can get that- move the pick
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Oh trust me I'm already plotting this. I'll be targeting the guy with 1.02 the hardest. 1.02 and Mike Evans? I'll jump All. Over. That. Actually I need to go check that leauge and see who the 1.02 owner has on his roster.
Kamara is a sell for me. Yes he is supremely talented, but I see very little chance he can keep up that TD rate. He’s still splitting a backfield with a stud in Mark Ingram. I feel like this year was the perfect storm for him and may end up being his career year. That’s not to say I don’t think he will be a good fantasy player for years, but he is not top 5 asset to me in any way.
Barkley is as good (or possibly even better) as a receiver than Kamara, and is vastly superior running the ball. He’s also shown the ability to handle a heavier workload. His upside to me is Tomlinson, L. Bell, DJ peak numbers and I don’t think Kamara has that level of upside.
FWIW I sold just sold Kamara in one league for the 1.02 and 1.05
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Did you watch Kamara run much this year? Who in the NFL was vastly superior running the ball? I don't think there's a man on earth who is vastly superior running the football right now.
And while the efficiency is likely to dip as the volume increases, Kamara's perfect storm scenario obviously doesn't include Mark Ingram getting half of the team's snaps.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Alvin Kamara looked as impressive in the NFL as Barkley did in college. That has to mean something.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'm right there with you. My stance has everything to do with how good Kamara was this year. Barkley is my favorite RB prospect, at this point in the process, in my time in the hobby. He's bigger and faster and will have a much higher draft pedigree than Kamara - so I certainly understand the other side as well. But give me the special player over the special prospect.
Zyphros
Footballguy
to answer your question Gurley was superior running the ball, hands down IMO. I'm not a huge Kamara guy and I'd sell him for the 1.01 if I were in a position to do that. I have my doubts about what Kamara can handle on a full workload basis where his perfect storm WAS this past year with offenses keying in on Brees, Michael Thomas (underrated), and Ingram. Kamara was the beneficiary of Brees not going over the hill yet. I know they relied more on the run than the pass but Brees counts for a lot of worry when it comes to defenses and if I had to choose as a defensive coordinator, I say let the RB's beat me rather than Brees.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
1.2 plus established stud should be able to land you any player in the NFL..............but would you even do that?? What kind of established stud you talking about here?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I didn't pay for PFF this year, so I don't have the up-to-date numbers, but as of 11/28 Kamara was 1st in YPC, Elusive Rating, forced missed tackles per touch, and 2nd in YAC per touch and PFF grade. If you want to say that volume gives Gurley the edge, I'm totally fine with that. But there simply wasn't anybody who did more when handed the football.
What doubts do you have about Kamara as a 3-down back?
The offense was certainly a plus - and Kamara didn't run into a lot of stacked boxes as a result. But his perfect storm is no Mark Ingram and a lesser defense.
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Zyphros
Footballguy
When that happens there is likely no Brees as well so it becomes a not so perfect storm again.
I didn't pay for PFF either, or have the numbers, but as a runner Gurley just looks so much better as a running back. Kamara is a little gimmicky when you compare him to guys of the "workhorse RB" group. Not to say that's a bad thing because he's obviously proved he can hang, but it gives me skepticism about him continuing his streak of how good he was. He and Hunt are 2 pea's in the same pod to me. Both have good not great size, both have now completed 2 insane rookie seasons, but defenses started figuring out Hunt due to workload. They haven't had as much of a chance to figure out Kamara due to his splitting reps. At least that's my take. I think there is a very real possibility of those 2 breaking a lot of hearts next year expecting a similar rate of production.
I'm curious as a comparison did people say this sort of thing with Tevin Coleman when he and Freeman were splitting reps? Lots of people doubted Freeman and supported Coleman as a feature guy and the reverse of that too. Turns out Coleman is more pretty good backup than feature material. Not to say the situation is identical but it has some similarities.
Again just curious but has any rookie RB finished a higher YPC than Kamara?
Yes. I’ve watched nearly every game of Barkley’s career and I am extremely confident in my evaluation of him as a mega stud. The only RB to come out in the last 8 or so years who was at his talent level is Gurley, and his injury concerns muddied the waters. I’m fine with people taking a more conservative approach but that is not how I operate my dynasty teams.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
The Saints were 19th in pass attempts this year. I'm not really too worried about Brees retiring in 2 years. He's certainly a plus, but plenty of situations would allow for Kamara to put up the numbers he did this year. I'll happily take a reduction in running efficiency, if it comes with some additional targets.
Kamara is a good deal bulkier and heavier than Coleman, and runs with a better center of gravity. I think Hunt is a good comp, in terms of build, but I don't see that as a negative the way you might.
Kamara's usage has been gimmicky, in the sense that not many guys can do what he can. Kind of like McCaffrey in Carolina. But I don't think that's a knock on him in PPR formats - and he's looked good between the tackles as well.
Note: I re-read your post and decided to re-write mine. @Zyphros - just in case you only saw the original.
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Lots of people are that confident that Barkley is that good. You're certainly not alone there.
I was more talking about the part where you predict Barkley will be a better receiver than Kamara has already shown to be in the NFL. That's a crazy high bar. 80+ catches, great YPC, passes the eye test in a big way, catches the ball like a WR downfield...that's rare
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Where is Jarvis Landry in your dynasty WR rankings (roughly)? I'm shocked to still see him outside of the top 15 as often as I do. He showed he's a very good redzone target, which was a question coming into this year. He was WR6 in my PPR league.
What separates him from Keenan Allen, who is universally ranked ahead of him?
He's top 10 for me.
What separates him from Keenan Allen, who is universally ranked ahead of him?
He's top 10 for me.
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Andrew74
Footballguy
For me Barkley looks studly. LT-level stud. You don’t see guys that have that size, speed, agility and receiving skills. He’s the complete package. He might bust but he has that potential to be a generational talent.
Kamara was awesome this year (which was great since I own him). My “concern” with him is if he gets a big workload can he handle it? If he doesn’t can he keep up this efficiency level to remain an elite RB? He only logged 111 rushes in the FF season. His receiving was outstanding but How long does the Saint situation last (being the team that throws and ungodly amount to its RBs)?
Now I’ll admit some bias. I’m a PSU fan and have been lusting for Barkley for years. Kamara landed on my team after falling to me at 2.02. I wasn’t terribly high on him as a prospect (ranked him late 1st). So there’s a guy that I view as having the possibility of being an all-time great vs a guy who surprised in a great situation.
I’d give Kamara for the 1.01. But I wouldn’t add much to him to get it done.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Wow as a Kamara owner I may have to go shopping for Saquon after he declares.
Before getting into specifics, more generally while truly elite RB prospects aren't infallible, they have a very high hit rate at least in the short term. If a rookie RB is a good enough prospect to have an ADP in the first 3 rounds of redraft leagues, their dynasty value appreciates from that year to the next 86% of the time. That is a huge percentage in fantasy football and a better return than you can get on basically any subset of players, even if it is a relatively small sample size.
Likewise, as I've touted many times 2nd year rookies coming off a good rookie year (especially ones that weren't elite prospects) are among the most tenuous and dangerous assets in all of fantasy football. The list of busts that had "proven it on the NFL field" for one year is unconcionably large. One year is "proof" of nothing in the NFL, but players that have done it for one year have the value as if they had done it for 7 straight years but were still only 23 years old.
More specifically about Kamara, he did look great out there but this was just about the best situation imaginable efficiency wise. He already landed in the perfect spot for a non-lead RB, a team that had made RB1's out of far less talented players before. And that perfect spot is tenuous going forward, with Brees aging and Payton constantly moving on and off the hot seat.
Not only that, even among that perfect situation for a guy like Kamara (which may or may not last) this was a particularly good year for it. Mark Ingram set career highs in rushing yards, TDs, receptions, and receiving yards. He didn't just suddenly and coincidentally get better at all of those things in his 7th year in the league. Everything just lined up this year.
I like Kamara a lot, but I'm with those that say they wouldn't be surprised if this ended up being the best season of his career, and I think we've almost certainly seen his career high in TDs already. There is a reason there aren't many part time backs that have ever held the long term value of guys like Zeke, Bell, Peterson, Lynch, etc. It's just not sustaininable. He scored TDs at a rate significantly better than Ladainian Tomlinson and his double digit YPR this year makes Marshall Faulk look like a fullback and would be the best in NFL history if he maintained it for his career (hint: He won't, many guys have done it for a year or two but none for a whole career).
In reality, he's not some crazy combination of Ladainian Tomlinson and Marshall Faulk. So the only way this guy ever sits in that consistent top tier of RBs long term is if he becomes a feature back. That is certainly a possibility, but there is a ton of risk in passing up on a guy like Barkley in hopes that he becomes that. And unlike the popular assumption that even if he doesn't become that he will still be a strong RB1 long-term, that's just not a reality because this efficiency is not sustainable.
Before getting into specifics, more generally while truly elite RB prospects aren't infallible, they have a very high hit rate at least in the short term. If a rookie RB is a good enough prospect to have an ADP in the first 3 rounds of redraft leagues, their dynasty value appreciates from that year to the next 86% of the time. That is a huge percentage in fantasy football and a better return than you can get on basically any subset of players, even if it is a relatively small sample size.
Likewise, as I've touted many times 2nd year rookies coming off a good rookie year (especially ones that weren't elite prospects) are among the most tenuous and dangerous assets in all of fantasy football. The list of busts that had "proven it on the NFL field" for one year is unconcionably large. One year is "proof" of nothing in the NFL, but players that have done it for one year have the value as if they had done it for 7 straight years but were still only 23 years old.
More specifically about Kamara, he did look great out there but this was just about the best situation imaginable efficiency wise. He already landed in the perfect spot for a non-lead RB, a team that had made RB1's out of far less talented players before. And that perfect spot is tenuous going forward, with Brees aging and Payton constantly moving on and off the hot seat.
Not only that, even among that perfect situation for a guy like Kamara (which may or may not last) this was a particularly good year for it. Mark Ingram set career highs in rushing yards, TDs, receptions, and receiving yards. He didn't just suddenly and coincidentally get better at all of those things in his 7th year in the league. Everything just lined up this year.
I like Kamara a lot, but I'm with those that say they wouldn't be surprised if this ended up being the best season of his career, and I think we've almost certainly seen his career high in TDs already. There is a reason there aren't many part time backs that have ever held the long term value of guys like Zeke, Bell, Peterson, Lynch, etc. It's just not sustaininable. He scored TDs at a rate significantly better than Ladainian Tomlinson and his double digit YPR this year makes Marshall Faulk look like a fullback and would be the best in NFL history if he maintained it for his career (hint: He won't, many guys have done it for a year or two but none for a whole career).
In reality, he's not some crazy combination of Ladainian Tomlinson and Marshall Faulk. So the only way this guy ever sits in that consistent top tier of RBs long term is if he becomes a feature back. That is certainly a possibility, but there is a ton of risk in passing up on a guy like Barkley in hopes that he becomes that. And unlike the popular assumption that even if he doesn't become that he will still be a strong RB1 long-term, that's just not a reality because this efficiency is not sustainable.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Certainly fair. I hope I didn't come off as though I feel that preferring Barkley is foolish. I certainly understand the appeal and think it's certainly reasonable. I just happen to see a similar upside with Kamara--Faulk to Barkley's LT.
Andrew74
Footballguy
No, didn’t come across that way at all. I’m enjoying the fact we have good, young RBs to talk about for a change.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
The TD rate feels like a distraction. He scored less than 1 a game, including his kick return. That's not what made him the PPR asset he was. It's the receiving production, which no other rookie in NFL history has matched. Cut his rushing TD rate in half and he's still a top 5 RB. Drop his YPC a yard or two - same thing. He doesn't need to maintain his rushing efficiency to put up 20+ ppg in ppr formats.
You mention Ingram's career year. Despite that, the Saints averaged just over 2 yards more per play with Kamara on the field. That's league tops for a RB. Yes, the run blocking was awesome. But, as a Kamara owner, wouldn't you prefer a few more 3rd and longs? Again, the rushing efficiency was great, but it didn't make Kamara's season. I'd gladly swap spots with Gordon, Bell or Hunt, off the top of my head.
How was Kamara's situation perfect? The Saints were 19th in the league in passing attempts and had another pro-bowl RB on the roster. I know it's easy to say "Brees/Bush/Sproles" and call it the system, but I'm not sure you'd be wise to. This wasn't a typical Drew Brees offense. They were the team grinding out the game more often than not this year.
I'm really interested in seeing the data on the rookie/redraft ADP bit. Mind sharing the source?
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fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Funny how quickly things have shifted. RB landscape was looking bleak and soon there will be more good young backs than WRs in fantasy.
kutta
Footballguy
